AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 1 2016

[superman7515]

Time flies when you're having fun, and it's that time of the year again! Warm up the spreadsheets, break out the TI-82, dust off the microscopes, and get ready to rank 'em... (Obviously, I'll update as games are completed.)

A few notes so that I won't have to answer it four or five times in various pages of the thread:
1) There are six FCS teams in action Sunday, three of which received votes in the preseason polls. If you had one of those teams on your ballot, or had one of them close enough that they could make it into one of your last slots, wait until all of the games are done!

2) Because there are six teams playing Sunday, it will probably be some time until the Sagarin rankings are updated, he usually doesn't update until all of the games are played. Not sure what Massey does since this is the first year we have included him.

3) The FCS Coaches poll has Sam Houston State at #2 and Jacksonville State at #3. They are separated by only 8 points. Jackson State (3-6 in 2015) received a second place vote, I imagine that was meant for Jacksonville State, and that would have the Gamecocks and Bearkats swap places. I listed it on the spreadsheet the way the coaches poll announced it, but I did put asterisks by #2 and #3 because I think it's an error.

4) The Albany Great Danes did not receive any preseason votes, but did defeat FBS Buffalo. I'm not mentioning that to campaign for Albany, just making sure to note it since it doesn't appear on the spreadsheet and is a FBS win, you can choose for yourself how much/little it matters. If there are any other wins over FBS teams that are accomplished by teams that don't appear on the spreadsheet, I will do my best to mention it each week just to keep everyone informed.

5) No, I don't control when the poll is turned on/off, so if you see me post this one week during the season and the poll isn't opened yet, there's probably a good reason (for example, all of the teams on the sheet are done, but some other teams are still playing). The AGSPoll guys know what they're doing, it will be on with plenty of time for you to vote before the poll closes at noon on Monday.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rYXjnA0JHD1XRWqp8bnPobHOiz38G_2x2T5FLSHapJE/edit?usp=sharing

As always, if you see any errors, please let me know via PM so that I can get that changed ASAP. You can feel free to leave a note in this thread, but there's no guarantee I won't miss a post, so a PM would be appreciated. It's Week 1, I'm probably working out some kinks as well. Thank you all for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week and for your help in keeping it accurate and useful!

[Bisonoline]

SHSU is #2? I watched part of that game today aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand are you sure theyre a #2 ?

[JSUSoutherner]

SHSU is #2? I watched part of that game today aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand are you sure theyre a #2 ?
To be fair, not sure we are close to being #2 material right now either.

[Thumper 76]

I don't vote cause I'm pretty sure I won't have time in a month or two, but I'm really interested as to how this shakes out. Some teams really surprised or just showed above and beyond what was expected (Richmond). First couple weeks usually have the most bitching, so that's always fun too.

[Catbooster]

As always - thanks for doing this Superman

[bonarae]

Please add: NAU lost at Arizona State 44-13 (http://www.espn.com/college-football/boxscore?gameId=400869095)

[Catsfan90]

Week 1 is always the toughest for me. Wayyy to many FBS games to weigh on.

[KPSUL]

SHSU is #2? I watched part of that game today aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand are you sure theyre a #2 ?

SHSU has a history of playing up or down to match their competition; however, there are probably a couple other teams that deserve consideration for #2.

[KPSUL]

Didn't see too many games to select as most significant loss. The CSU loss in OT told us a lot on the positive side about the Bucs, but I had to go with the game on Long Island that garnered so much attention due to an ill-advised thread posted months ago.

[Samalum'10]

SHSU is #2? I watched part of that game today aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand are you sure theyre a #2 ?
Well I was at the game and I agree completely. I would have us at a solid 12-16 range. I didn't see anything that stood out as top ten material.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

Thanks for the sheet.

[Daytripper]

This is probably the toughest poll I've done.

[Da Bison]

Remember to take votes away from NDSU because und lost.

Purple.

***saddly this happens.

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk

[PantherRob82]

I started working on my vote. Wow.

I think I might have my 25, but I have 12-13 more teams I could slide into the last 3 spots.

[Catatonic]

How much to discount a ranked team for a loss or for a lackluster win over a Lower tier d2 opponent? How much credit to give a team that wasn't on the radar for taking down a FBS opponent, albeit a bad one.? Those were the kinds of questions running through my head as I filled out my poll. The top half of the poll was easy enough....but the last few spots were tough.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Remember to take votes away from NDSU because und lost.

Purple.

***saddly this happens.

Sent from my SM-T377P using Tapatalk

No it doesn't. JFC, you don't know what you are talking about.

Well, wait a minute. It doesn't get to the final poll in the event it got put on a ballot in the first place (don't see that hardly ever anymore) it gets asked about in an email and a correction would be made.

[superman7515]

How much to discount a ranked team for a loss or for a lackluster win over a Lower tier d2 opponent? How much credit to give a team that wasn't on the radar for taking down a FBS opponent, albeit a bad one.? Those were the kinds of questions running through my head as I filled out my poll. The top half of the poll was easy enough....but the last few spots were tough.

#4 Jacksonville State wins by 19 against a top ten ranked D2 opponent.
#6 Chattanooga wins by 66 against a D2 team that only joined the NCAA three years ago and went 2-8 last year.

On its face, winning by 66 is better than winning by 19, but to what degree do you take into account the quality of a D2 opponent?

[Trumpster]

So many FBS and D2 games makes it super hard for me. I try to keep up with what are good teams in FCS I don't have time to keep up with those 2 also.

Also how do people take into account injuries? Chuck South's QB is out for the season right?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[ursus arctos horribilis]

So many FBS and D2 games makes it super hard for me. I try to keep up with what are good teams in FCS I don't have time to keep up with those 2 also.

Also how do people take into account injuries? Chuck South's QB is out for the season right?

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Well, it seems it would affect how good the team is for sure but it's not known so I guess cautiously consider it but maybe wait to see how the backup does and see what you think of their strength as a team at that point?

[FormerPokeCenter]

What the hell is wrong with you Sam Houston posters?

Find your own signature move and stop sandbagging!

That's a McNeese thing!

[chattanoogamocs]

#4 Jacksonville State wins by 19 against a top ten ranked D2 opponent.
#6 Chattanooga wins by 66 against a D2 team that only joined the NCAA three years ago and went 2-8 last year.

On its face, winning by 66 is better than winning by 19, but to what degree do you take into account the quality of a D2 opponent?

While I don't disagree with what your saying, UNA is definitely a better opponent than Shorter, but if you are going to use Chattanooga as an example and point out Shorter's record last season (which is apples and oranges trying to compare last season to this season), it should be note that one of those 2 wins last season was against an FCS opponent.

[BEAR]

Don't forget to look at those teams just outside the top 25 that had a good week. xcoolx

[Catatonic]

Don't forget to look at those teams just outside the top 25 that had a good week. xcoolx
Particularly those teams that wear purple?

[Nickels]

Don't forget to look at those teams just outside the top 25 that had a good week. xcoolx
Do you seriously think the Bears should get jump for blowing out the worst team in D1?

[BEAR]

Do you seriously think the Bears should get jump for blowing out the worst team in D1?

Well considering they are ranked 38 I seriously doubt that would be considered just outside the top 25.

[BEAR]

I want Samford moved up. Will make the victory next week worth more. xthumbsupx

ok. Edited. Possible victory. xlolx

[Nickels]

Well considering they are ranked 38 I seriously doubt that would be considered just outside the top 25.
IMO ya'll are much better than 38...

[BEAR]

IMO ya'll are much better than 38...

We will find out this week against Samford.

Oh yeah, we're 1-0 in conference. xlolx

[caribbeanhen]

Well I was at the game and I agree completely. I would have us at a solid 12-16 range. I didn't see anything that stood out as top ten material.

besides Panhandle might be one of the better teams they face all year, a tough schedule is not something Sammy has to worry about

[superman7515]

Massey ratings have been updated. Biggest movers:

Albany +31
Lafayette +25
Gardner Webb +22

Lamar -13
North Carolina A&T -13
Incarnate Word -18
Kennesaw State -20

[RootinFerDukes]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

[TheKingpin28]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

I was in the same boat but there was one team on one side and one team on another side, will not name due poll rules and to not influence anyone one way or another, but besides those 2 teams, I found it hard to move teams around too much since I could not justify the notion of "slot voting". I hope by week 4 or 5 the teams will be in the order they should be, but I would not be surprised if some teams jumped high this week compared to the Pre-Season and some teams fell off compared to the Pre-Season.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

I really think you are looking at it incorrectly in "punishment" and so forth. I realize that is probably why you put in quotes but it is not punishment anymore than trying a new flavor of ice cream and saying "crap, I think that is better than my former favorite!"

You have new data, scrap everything you did or thought prior to this and rank it based on what you now know.

All wins are not equal and we all know that if we look at it realistically. That will all change again next week also most likely.xthumbsupx

[MR. CHICKEN]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

....TA DUH CHICKEN...IT COMES DOWN TA.......DO YA STEP ON SPIDERS.....O' LEAVE 'EM ALONE......'CAUSE DEY'LL CATCH ALOT MO' BUGS.........BRAWK!

[dewey]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

I typically don't drop teams based on losses to FBS teams but IMHO a win, like EWU's over Washington State (fringe top 25 team, can vault you up the rankings).

Also wins like Richmond winning by 17 at Vrginia, UNI winning at Iowa State or even South Dakota State giving TCU all they can handle move those teams up for me or solidify their positions.

A team like Charleston Southern who gave NDSU all they wanted lose their starting QB for the season and the backup is banged up in the 2nd game. Then several players were suspended before the game.

https://www.bisonmediazone.com/what-we-learned-week-1/

Charleston Southern had a rough week. First head coach Jamey Chadwell and a defensive assistant coach were suspended for a game for an NCAA rules violation. Then before the game, several players were suspended for an apparent NCAA violation. Then, starting quarterback Kyle Copeland, who I thought played well in the Bucs loss at NDSU last week, suffers a terrible looking knee injury as is done for the year. Coupled with that, CSU’s backup quarterback also was injured in the win over Kentucky State. I believe CSU is by far the best team in the Big South, but those injuries may be too much to overcome. Plus the distractions off the field of possible impending NCAA infractions is a lot to deal with. Oh by the way, Charleston Southern play at Florida State Saturday.

Charleston Southern looked really good but losing their starting QB, coaching and player suspensions might be to much.

Dewey

[Bisonwinagn]

I typically don't drop teams based on losses to FBS teams but IMHO a win, like EWU's over Washington State (fringe top 25 team, can vault you up the rankings).

Also wins like Richmond winning by 17 at Vrginia, UNI winning at Iowa State or even South Dakota State giving TCU all they can handle move those teams up for me or solidify their positions.

A team like Charleston Southern who gave NDSU all they wanted lose their starting QB for the season and the backup is banged up in the 2nd game. Then several players were suspended before the game.

https://www.bisonmediazone.com/what-we-learned-week-1/

Charleston Southern had a rough week. First head coach Jamey Chadwell and a defensive assistant coach were suspended for a game for an NCAA rules violation. Then before the game, several players were suspended for an apparent NCAA violation. Then, starting quarterback Kyle Copeland, who I thought played well in the Bucs loss at NDSU last week, suffers a terrible looking knee injury as is done for the year. Coupled with that, CSU’s backup quarterback also was injured in the win over Kentucky State. I believe CSU is by far the best team in the Big South, but those injuries may be too much to overcome. Plus the distractions off the field of possible impending NCAA infractions is a lot to deal with. Oh by the way, Charleston Southern play at Florida State Saturday.

Charleston Southern looked really good but losing their starting QB, coaching and player suspensions might be to much.

Dewey

Too much for what? Their conference is crap and they will likely win those games regardless. Nothing really changes.

[Twentysix]

I'm having a hard time justifying moving anyone significantly in one direction or another. The most marquee wins this week were among the top ranking teams anyways and I don't know if I can "punish" a team for winning, just not "convincingly" enough. Sometimes winning is winning and losing is losing.

Anyone have advice on feeling this way? I just can't put much weight in FBS losses or feel like letting a team get a massive jump from one FBS win knowing that some teams fold in seasons where they beat FBS teams.

I'm totally doing all of this. Week 1 is horrible.

My most significant loss was a win over a D2 team O.o

That being said, I think of it more so as calibration, not really punishment. They aren't getting some kind of reward for where they are placed on my bracket. I'm simply ranking the teams according to what I think based on what I've seen and history and bias and whatever else.

[Twentysix]

Any chance of a confirmation email after the poll is submitted? I didn't receive one.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Any chance of a confirmation email after the poll is submitted? I didn't receive one.

You are supposed to get one of course but Google has went to quota crap that we exceed every Sunday. The other possibllity is a mistaken email put in...I'll go check what it is now but you might not see a confirmation until the after midnight mark in Montana.

[Twentysix]

I got one at 11:51pm mountain

Thanks

[Katfan]

What the hell is wrong with you Sam Houston posters?

Find your own signature move and stop sandbagging!

That's a McNeese thing!
Our season is over! If you don't believe me read our fan board! Oh, see you in the playoffs.

[RootinFerDukes]

Too much for what? Their conference is crap and they will likely win those games regardless. Nothing really changes.

I see all that news and what it says to me is that Liberty hasn't even won a game yet and is already in the playoffs. The flames would have to choke hard to not win the big south.

[BigSouthFan]

I typically don't drop teams based on losses to FBS teams but IMHO a win, like EWU's over Washington State (fringe top 25 team, can vault you up the rankings).

Also wins like Richmond winning by 17 at Vrginia, UNI winning at Iowa State or even South Dakota State giving TCU all they can handle move those teams up for me or solidify their positions.

A team like Charleston Southern who gave NDSU all they wanted lose their starting QB for the season and the backup is banged up in the 2nd game. Then several players were suspended before the game.

https://www.bisonmediazone.com/what-we-learned-week-1/

Charleston Southern had a rough week. First head coach Jamey Chadwell and a defensive assistant coach were suspended for a game for an NCAA rules violation. Then before the game, several players were suspended for an apparent NCAA violation. Then, starting quarterback Kyle Copeland, who I thought played well in the Bucs loss at NDSU last week, suffers a terrible looking knee injury as is done for the year. Coupled with that, CSU’s backup quarterback also was injured in the win over Kentucky State. I believe CSU is by far the best team in the Big South, but those injuries may be too much to overcome. Plus the distractions off the field of possible impending NCAA infractions is a lot to deal with. Oh by the way, Charleston Southern play at Florida State Saturday.

Charleston Southern looked really good but losing their starting QB, coaching and player suspensions might be to much.

Dewey


Too much for what? Their conference is crap and they will likely win those games regardless. Nothing really changes.

Yeah, it seems like a lot but to be honest the FSU game is probably just another chance to sit the guys they have to sit, and they also have another D2 game in Albany State (Chadwell's suspension game).

As for Copeland going down, it happens in the option offense. This is nothing new for CSU, in Chadwell's entire era they have never went through the season with the same QB, at least 3 play every year. They will adjust, go into Big South play 1-2 most likely with losses to NDSU and FSU, and likely run the table. I'd be surprised if they don't. After a Kennesaw loss to ETSU the other night (hurt my soul to see that), I don't think anyone can put up points on that stingy defense. Nobody really threatens them but maybe Liberty, they stood up to VT for a while the other day.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I got one at 11:51pm mountain

Thanks

Yeah,I went and tried to do it manually and it sent most of them, skipped two of them until Midnight, then didn't send em' on it's own at that point. Google made it sort of a pain in the ass the last 2 or 3 yrs.