AND THE ONLY TEAM ON THE PLAYOFF BUBBLE GOING INTO WEEK 1 IS..... Charleston Southern

[BigSouthFan]

Here we are coming into Week 1 of the new season, and Week 0 leaves the Buccaneers already on the playoff bubble due to POOR POOR scheduling. I don't know who is behind the atrocious scheduling over at Charleston Southern, but I highly doubt Jamey Chadwell has a part in it, because he has felt the repercussions of it 2 out of his 3 years there. I just don't understand how you can keep scheduling 1 or more FBS school, 2 Division II schools, and expect your team to make the playoffs year in and year out. It really puts your team in a crutch. At this moment, CSU has 8 D1 games remaining, and one of them being Florida State. So realistically, there is no way for them to get to 8 D1 wins, and even getting to 7 D1 wins requires a win AT transitioning Coastal Carolina (CSU has won 2 out of the 3 matchups in the Chadwell era, but hasn't won in Conway since 2008). This makes Coastal a MUST WIN, and also FORCES Chuck South to win their conference to get in. Even with a conference title (likely) and a Coastal loss, I don't see them seeded. They must beat Coastal to have a chance at seeding, correct?

Shame, shame, shame that in Week 0, Charleston Southern goes from missing a FG at the end of regulation to beat #1 NDSU, to being the only FCS team in the nation on the playoff bubble. Predictions on how their season will turn out?

REMAINING SCHEDULE:

vs. Kentucky State (D2)
@ Florida State
@ Monmouth (Big South)
@ Coastal
vs. Albany State (D2)
vs. Presbyterian (Big South)
vs. Bucknell
vs. Gardner-Webb (Big South)
@ Liberty (Big South)
vs. Kennesaw State (Big South)

[JSUSoutherner]

I keep seeing people talk about Coastal like they're currently an FBS team in FCS clothes but I can't help but think of Georgia Southern and App State during their transition years.

The way Chuck South played in the Fargodome I fully expect to see them in the playoffs and I'll be surprised if they don't run the table outside of FSU.

[IBleedYellow]

I keep seeing people talk about Coastal like they're currently an FBS team in FCS clothes but I can't help but think of Georgia Southern and App State during their transition years.

The way Chuck South played in the Fargodome I fully expect to see them in the playoffs and I'll be surprised if they don't run the table outside of FSU.

This is my line of reasoning also.

[Thumper 76]

CCU isn't eligible for the playoffs right? So really to win the conference autobid CSU just has to beat out the rest of the Big South, which they should be able to do. No way they get a seed though.

[BigSouthFan]

CCU isn't eligible for the playoffs right? So really to win the conference autobid CSU just has to beat out the rest of the Big South, which they should be able to do. No way they get a seed though.

So running the table with a CCU win (and FSU loss) they still go unseeded in your opinion?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm looking forward to the Bucknell-CSU game. The Bison are easily the most physical team in the PL. That's a very interesting match-up....

[JSUSoutherner]

So running the table with a CCU win (and FSU loss) they still go unseeded in your opinion?
I think they will get the Big South auto bid. It depends on how the rest of their games go. If they roll through their schedule like JSU did through the OVC last year then I would seed them. But if they are clutching out close ones on a weekly/ semi-weekly basis I wouldn't.

[taper]

Doesn't one D2 game count now? The 7 win limit is clearly gone too. If CSU wins the conference I'd expect a seed unless 8 other teams go on a rampage. The committee takes a good look at strength of schedule, based on 1 game I'd take a 6 win CSU over a bunch of likely 7 win teams.

[Thumper 76]

So running the table with a CCU win (and FSU loss) they still go unseeded in your opinion?

Yes. Unless CCU is really good this year and the rest of the Big South has a MVFC type of OOC record. The competition for seeds this year will be pretty tough I think. There will likely be two seeds from the MVFC, possibly three. SHSU will likely walk through their schedule. JSU as well. I'd bet the Big Sky gets one for sure, maybe two with how unbalanced their schedule is. CAA most likely gets two as well. It's hard to justify a team with only seven DI wins getting a seed in my book. And with only 7 DI wins, they would be fighting for the last couple of seeds, and will be against some at larges with really good resumes. Let's say the last seed is in the table and it's between say, an 8-2 SDSU and a 7-1 CSU (Division one wins with FBS losses dropped off). I would say the 8-2 resume is going to be much better when you consider the competition played. The Big South doesn't provide a plethora of opportunities for signature wins.

[chattanoogamocs]

Doesn't one D2 game count now? The 7 win limit is clearly gone too. If CSU wins the conference I'd expect a seed unless 8 other teams go on a rampage. The committee takes a good look at strength of schedule, based on 1 game I'd take a 6 win CSU over a bunch of likely 7 win teams.

I don't think it "counts," but I think now the committee can take into consideration the quality of the DII opponent (if they are a DII top ten team versus a 1-9 DII team).

I think basically, if you play a strong DII team, it hurts less than before when a Non DI just basically didn't exist when looking at SOS.

But I could be wrong.

[Daytripper]

CSU will be fine. They will make some noise in the playoffs when they get there, as well.

[Libertine]

Week 0 leaves the Buccaneers already on the playoff bubble due to POOR POOR scheduling. I don't know who is behind the atrocious scheduling over at Charleston Southern, but I highly doubt Jamey Chadwell has a part in it, because he has felt the repercussions of it 2 out of his 3 years there. I just don't understand how you can keep scheduling 1 or more FBS school, 2 Division II schools, and expect your team to make the playoffs year in and year out.

Of course Chadwell has a part in it because this is the kind of schedule that CSU always puts together. If there's anybody at that school with the "juice" to influence scheduling, it's him and, yet, here we are. They can claim it's because no one wants to play them but that little chestnut loses a bit of flavor when you realize that they've played a minimum of three non-FCS programs (either FBS or sub-D1) every single year since 2007. I suspect the truth is that no one wants to play them at their place and the recent news about the new 4-game series with The Citadel all being played at Johnson-Hagood would appear to bear that out.


I can't help but think of Georgia Southern and App State during their transition years.

Bear in mind that App's first transition year was also Scott Satterfield's first season as head coach there and, as I recall, that transition was not a smooth one. Also, in their first transition year, while Georgia Southern struggled against the SoCon schedule, they were still good enough to beat Florida.

[walliver]

CCU is no longer a member of the Big South Conference (unlike ASU and GSU during their transition). They are football independents. Therefore the CCU game is just another OOC game. With expanded playoffs, a 8-3 CSU team should be relatively safe for a playoff bid. They can afford to lose to FSU and either CCU or Liberty (but likely not both).

Due to poor facilities, CSU is going to either play multiple sub-DI opponents or play a lot of away games.

[Catamount87]

I brought this up last year, the selection criteria does not directly specify a minimum number of D-1 wins. What it says is "The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, fewer thansix Division I wins may place a team in jeopardy of not being selected;"

Look at section 2-3 on page 16 of this document for the FCS playoff selection criteria. https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf

[Gangtackle11]

They play like they did in the Fargodome then they should be the bully in the Big South playground.

[SU DOG]

Slightly off the thread theme, but I just wonder why CSU would ever agree to play The Citadel FOUR games at Johnson Hagood? That doesn't sound like something Chadwell would go for.
http://www.wcti12.com/sports/the-citadel-charleston-southern-agree-to-resume-series-in-2018/64282373

[Lehigh'98]

Slightly off the thread theme, but I just wonder why CSU would ever agree to play The Citadel FOUR games at Johnson Hagood? That doesn't sound like something Chadwell would go for.
http://www.wcti12.com/sports/the-citadel-charleston-southern-agree-to-resume-series-in-2018/64282373


Says they are able to monetize 3,000 of the tickets for the Citadel games so they might be able to make some $ off of it. Hopefully it ends up being a good deal for both schools.

[TheValleyRaider]

Looking at that schedule, I'd say CSU can lose up to 3 more games: FSU, CCU, and one Big South game. That would give them 5 D-I wins, which is not good, but it would also involve losses to an FBS power, the FCS power (on the road in OT), a transitioning FBS program, and a conference champ. If we assume that conference loss is Monmouth or Liberty, all those are road losses as well. Keep all of them close (say OT or last minute score) or fluky minus the Florida St. game, and it looks less bad. If there is such a thing as a "good" loss, those might be it, especially if NDSU runs away with the rest of their home games.

This of course doesn't even consider what the rest of the bubble looks like in November. How many CAA/Big Sky/Valley teams are looking like at-large teams with 8-9 wins? Do conferences like the Patriot League, SoCon, or OVC see a second team step up to join their autobids? Still too many "what ifs" remaining to say what a 7-4 CSU team "looks" like.

It's not the easiest path to follow, but CSU is probably the favorites in the Big South, and coming up short in the conference race would have put them on the bubble almost regardless of their OOC slate. Little margin for error, sure, but that was always the case with the schedule the Bucs have. I suspect that, if they are on the bubble, they will get quite a bit of mileage out of playing the Bison into OT, especially if few other teams can match it.

[BigSouthFan]

Slightly off the thread theme, but I just wonder why CSU would ever agree to play The Citadel FOUR games at Johnson Hagood? That doesn't sound like something Chadwell would go for.
http://www.wcti12.com/sports/the-citadel-charleston-southern-agree-to-resume-series-in-2018/64282373

Do you honestly think Chadwell will still be at CSU in 2018?! Lol.

[SU DOG]

Do you honestly think Chadwell will still be at CSU in 2018?! Lol.

Of course NOT. However, I would think that he would still be in on any CSU decisions such as this, at this time.

[CSU18]

You also have to consider the fact that the Big South only has 6 teams now which means we (as well as other teams in the conference) have to schedule 6 OOC games. Tough to find 4-5 quality opponents every year. And before you jump all over me about this comment, I know that CCU and Liberty haven't had a problem doing it in the past, but they did have the same issues before they became relevant. I know our scheduling is getting better. We have a home and home with Elon in 2017 & 2018, and the news about going to El Cid 4 years in a row just came out. Pretty sure our AD has figured out that these schedule we need has to be planned several years in advance for it to work out. I hope I'm correct with my thought process....I guess only time will tell.

[Thumper 76]

Looking at that schedule, I'd say CSU can lose up to 3 more games: FSU, CCU, and one Big South game. That would give them 5 D-I wins, which is not good, but it would also involve losses to an FBS power, the FCS power (on the road in OT), a transitioning FBS program, and a conference champ. If we assume that conference loss is Monmouth or Liberty, all those are road losses as well. Keep all of them close (say OT or last minute score) or fluky minus the Florida St. game, and it looks less bad. If there is such a thing as a "good" loss, those might be it, especially if NDSU runs away with the rest of their home games.

This of course doesn't even consider what the rest of the bubble looks like in November. How many CAA/Big Sky/Valley teams are looking like at-large teams with 8-9 wins? Do conferences like the Patriot League, SoCon, or OVC see a second team step up to join their autobids? Still too many "what ifs" remaining to say what a 7-4 CSU team "looks" like.

It's not the easiest path to follow, but CSU is probably the favorites in the Big South, and coming up short in the conference race would have put them on the bubble almost regardless of their OOC slate. Little margin for error, sure, but that was always the case with the schedule the Bucs have. I suspect that, if they are on the bubble, they will get quite a bit of mileage out of playing the Bison into OT, especially if few other teams can match it.

If a 5 DI win team makes the playoffs, we need to shrink the field, cause that's just weak **** there.

[BigSouthFan]

You also have to consider the fact that the Big South only has 6 teams now which means we (as well as other teams in the conference) have to schedule 6 OOC games. Tough to find 4-5 quality opponents every year. And before you jump all over me about this comment, I know that CCU and Liberty haven't had a problem doing it in the past, but they did have the same issues before they became relevant. I know our scheduling is getting better. We have a home and home with Elon in 2017 & 2018, and the news about going to El Cid 4 years in a row just came out. Pretty sure our AD has figured out that these schedule we need has to be planned several years in advance for it to work out. I hope I'm correct with my thought process....I guess only time will tell.

Looking at other teams in the conference, really looks like they just set themselves up for dismal seasons.

Realistically PC goes 3-8, 4-7 at best. http://www.gobluehose.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=10734&SPSID=89739

Garnder-Webb goes 1-10, and I can't even see a 2nd win outside of maybe PC. Their lone win will be Benedict. http://gwusports.com/sports/fball/2016-17/schedule

Even Liberty is set up for a 1-3 start and a 6-5 or 5-6 finish. Can't see anything better than 7-4. http://www.liberty.edu/Flames/index.cfm?PID=10873&TeamID=9


What is really up with the scheduling?

[skinny_uncle]

So running the table with a CCU win (and FSU loss) they still go unseeded in your opinion?

Getting a seed and being on the bubble are two entirely different things.

[SU DOG]

I firmly believe that Campbell will join the Big South for Football before next season. I have my private reasons to say that. Not necessarily indicative of a move but still... seen that new video board? It is huge, spectacular, and close to a $1 million investment. I don't think money is an issue for their move, but old gray heads could be - we will see.

[Mayville Bison]

Looking at that schedule, I'd say CSU can lose up to 3 more games: FSU, CCU, and one Big South game. That would give them 5 D-I wins, which is not good, but it would also involve losses to an FBS power, the FCS power (on the road in OT), a transitioning FBS program, and a conference champ. If we assume that conference loss is Monmouth or Liberty, all those are road losses as well. Keep all of them close (say OT or last minute score) or fluky minus the Florida St. game, and it looks less bad. If there is such a thing as a "good" loss, those might be it, especially if NDSU runs away with the rest of their home games.

This of course doesn't even consider what the rest of the bubble looks like in November. How many CAA/Big Sky/Valley teams are looking like at-large teams with 8-9 wins? Do conferences like the Patriot League, SoCon, or OVC see a second team step up to join their autobids? Still too many "what ifs" remaining to say what a 7-4 CSU team "looks" like.

It's not the easiest path to follow, but CSU is probably the favorites in the Big South, and coming up short in the conference race would have put them on the bubble almost regardless of their OOC slate. Little margin for error, sure, but that was always the case with the schedule the Bucs have. I suspect that, if they are on the bubble, they will get quite a bit of mileage out of playing the Bison into OT, especially if few other teams can match it.

If they are a 7-4, you have to ask the question, "Who did they beat?" You can have close losses all day, but you gotta show you can beat someone. If CSU is 7-4 with only 5 D1 wins, the only way I see them getting in is if they get the auto bid from their conference.

[Trumpster]

If they are a 7-4, you have to ask the question, "Who did they beat?" You can have close losses all day, but you gotta show you can beat someone. If CSU is 7-4 with only 5 D1 wins, the only way I see them getting in is if they get the auto bid from their conference.

One word. Quality Loses.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[CSU18]

One word. Quality Loses.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

Like your thought process, but unfortunately that's two words. 😆

[TheValleyRaider]

If they are a 7-4, you have to ask the question, "Who did they beat?" You can have close losses all day, but you gotta show you can beat someone. If CSU is 7-4 with only 5 D1 wins, the only way I see them getting in is if they get the auto bid from their conference.

Agreed, but once you start getting into the "on the bubble at 7-4" range, that's a fair question to ask of most of the teams you're considering.

[Thumper 76]

Agreed, but once you start getting into the "on the bubble at 7-4" range, that's a fair question to ask of most of the teams you're considering.

Especially if they only have 5 DI wins out of the 7.