FCS OVER/UNDER win totals for each team [Archive]

ebemiss

July 19th, 2016, 04:31 PM

Put together win projection totals for each team based on their pct of winning each game. Thought it would be an interesting test for my numbers to compare them to what forum members thought about certain teams.

Here's the link.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_ffact&ids=183&lang=en

Here's what I mean.

Pick 5 teams and select OVER or UNDER their projected win total for the season based on the number of total games I have listed. So at the end of the regular season we'll see if anyone can go 5 for 5 and it will also help me in finding teams that I have made a mistake with their pre-season rankings.

So for example you'll list OVER or UNDER, the team name, and the projected win total I have for that team. (pick 5 total) You can pick all OVER's, all UNDER's or mix and match them.

1. OVER Albany 4.79
2.
3.
4.
5.

IBleedYellow

July 19th, 2016, 04:36 PM

Playoffs?

No playoffs?

ebemiss

July 19th, 2016, 04:38 PM

Playoffs?

No playoffs?

Regular season only. I have total games listed for each team next to their projected w/l. That number should match their regular season schedule.

geaux_sioux

July 19th, 2016, 04:47 PM

1. UND over 5.4
2. NAU over 6.08
3. Northern Colorado over 3.81
4. South Dakota over 3.00
5. Idaho St over 2.7

BisonTru

July 19th, 2016, 05:13 PM

1. Under Montana at 8.34
2. Under UNI at 8.10
3. Over SDSU at 6.98
4. Under SHSU at 10.45
5. Under SUU at 6.61

FUBeAR

July 19th, 2016, 05:35 PM

1. OVER Mercer 5.62
2. OVER Furman 5.08
3. UNDER Citadel 7.96
4. OVER Austin Peay 0.69
5. UNDER Chattanooga 9.25

...and for fun..

6. UNDER Coastal Carolina 10.72
7. UNDER Sam Houston State 10.55
8. UNDER North Dakota State 9.99
9. UNDER Jacksonville State 9.33
10. OVER East Tennessee State 1.09
11. OVER Tennessee Tech 3.00

BisonTru

July 19th, 2016, 07:47 PM

I think I would take the under on Austin Peay. That's sad, but realistic.

SU DOG

July 19th, 2016, 08:12 PM

UNDER UTC @ 9.25
UNDER Coastal @ 10.72
UNDER Murray State @ 5.0
OVER Campbell @ 4.83
OVER Samford @ 6.8

FUBeAR

July 19th, 2016, 10:38 PM

I think I would take the under on Austin Peay. That's sad, but realistic.

Saw them live 2x & watched a lot of video of them the past 2 seasons. Overall, their players are not bad & they have quite a few excellent athletes. They just had no idea, whatsoever, how to win and made scores of mental & discipline-related mistakes. That's Coaching and I'll bet the new HC, having come up in the Chattanooga system, will be able to fix enough of that to squeeze out at least 1 win. Just hope they take another L when Mercer plays them in Clarksville (again) this year.

UNIFanSince1983

July 20th, 2016, 10:43 AM

Saw them live 2x & watched a lot of video of them the past 2 seasons. Overall, their players are not bad & they have quite a few excellent athletes. They just had no idea, whatsoever, how to win and made scores of mental & discipline-related mistakes. That's Coaching and I'll bet the new HC, having come up in the Chattanooga system, will be able to fix enough of that to squeeze out at least 1 win. Just hope they take another L when Mercer plays them in Clarksville (again) this year.

The problem is there might only be 2 teams on their schedule they have a chance to beat. I mean OOC is Troy, Kentucky, and Mercer. So only one of those I would say they could compete with. Then in conference who could they maybe beat? TSU or TTU?

FUBeAR

July 20th, 2016, 12:04 PM

The problem is there might only be 2 teams on their schedule they have a chance to beat. I mean OOC is Troy, Kentucky, and Mercer. So only one of those I would say they could compete with. Then in conference who could they maybe beat? TSU or TTU?

Maybe...or Murray State - picked to finish just ahead of them (8th) by the coaches in the OVC...and also their last win was over the Racers on 10/18/14. Or Southeast Missouri, also picked to finish in the bottom half of the OVC.

Twentysix

July 20th, 2016, 01:48 PM

1 NDSU OVER 10-1
2 UND OVER 9-2
3 UNI UNDER 8-3
4 Montana UNDER 7-4
5 USD OVER at least 4 wins.

yorkcountyUNHfan

July 20th, 2016, 01:55 PM

I'll take New Hampshire over 5.85

JMUNJ08

July 21st, 2016, 12:16 PM

Rather surprising JMU has the highest over under target in the CAA at 8.36. I guess that happens when you have two pillow fights out of conference...

dewey

July 22nd, 2016, 10:24 PM

Twentysix

July 24th, 2016, 12:28 AM

I will take the following 5 teams.

Illinois State UNDER 8.5
North Dakota State University OVER 9.99
South Dakota State University OVER 6.98
Youngstown State University OVER 6.91
Chattanooga UNDER 9.25

Dewey

I really hope Youngstown doesn't win 7 games. I want Pelini to fail. After he is gone Youngstown can go on an awe inspiring tear and do great, I have nothing against the team.

chattownmocs

July 24th, 2016, 01:33 AM

If Austin Peay doesn't win 3 or 4 games it will be because of inexperience from their players and coaches and not because of their talent level. They signed a hell of a recruiting class.

Smitty

July 24th, 2016, 06:57 AM

Went all under just for the heck of it

1. UNDER Chattanooga 9.25
2. UNDER North Dakota State 9.99
3. UNDER Coastal Carolina 10.72
4. UNDER Wofford 7.00
5. UNDER? ETSU 1.09

Western Carolina
5.66
5.34
11

Still counts as a winning season

JSUSoutherner

July 24th, 2016, 08:37 AM

Maybe...or Murray State - picked to finish just ahead of them (8th) by the coaches in the OVC...and also their last win was over the Racers on 10/18/14. Or Southeast Missouri, also picked to finish in the bottom half of the OVC.
I really think the only OVC team they will have a good chance of beating is TTU. Murray State has KD Humphries. SEMO has a squad and if they lose to AP I will eat my phone.

POD Knows

July 24th, 2016, 09:09 AM

1. UND Over 5.40
2. Northern Arizona Over 6.08
3. Illinois State Under 8.5
4. Montana Under 8.34
5. Sam Houston Under 10.55

BisonTru

July 24th, 2016, 09:15 AM

If Austin Peay doesn't win 3 or 4 games it will be because of inexperience from their players and coaches and not because of their talent level. They signed a hell of a recruiting class.

Austin Peay isn't going to win 4 games even if they played in the SoCon.

underdawg

July 24th, 2016, 11:56 AM

MVFC record off the article:

1. NDSU 9.99-1.01 record (W-L)\

2. Ilst 8.50-2.50

3. UNI 8.10-2.90

4. SDSU 6.98-4.02

5. YSU 6.91-4.09

6. SIU 6.61-4.13

7. WIU 5.07-5.93

8.Inst 4.46-6.59

9. USD 3.00-8.00

10. MSU 1.22-9.78

I'd take 7 wins as for a new coach like SIU's Nick Hill (6.61). Can't really evaluate the team till they play a game though

Cocky

July 24th, 2016, 02:26 PM

JSUSoutherner

July 24th, 2016, 02:42 PM

Only one so Mercer and Kentucky are strong this year?
No, Troy just sucks. :D

chattownmocs

July 25th, 2016, 01:54 AM

Austin Peay isn't going to win 4 games even if they played in the SoCon.

A conference that is universally accepted as a lot tougher than the one they are in now? Great point.

JSUSoutherner

July 25th, 2016, 06:56 AM

A conference that is universally accepted as a lot tougher than the one they are in now? Great point.
Accepted by who?

JMU2K_DukeDawg

July 25th, 2016, 02:02 PM

OVER Lafayette 2.23
OVER North Dakota 5.40
UNDER Portland St. 7.04
UNDER Sam Houston St. 10.55
OVER Savannah St. 0.90

Milktruck74

July 25th, 2016, 02:20 PM

Accepted by who?

Pretty much every one that isn't in the OVS...and 2/3 of them!!!

JSUSoutherner

July 25th, 2016, 02:50 PM

Pretty much every one that isn't in the OVS...and 2/3 of them!!!
On what basis?

The SoCon is 7-7 vs. the OVC over the past 5 years. UTC is 5-5. If you take Austin Peay out of the equation then the SoCon is 3-7 vs. the OVC and UTC drops to 3-5 against OVC opponents over the past 5 years. I would say that they have been pretty evenly matched recently based off win loss records.

But that doesn't exactly tell the whole story because the only SoCon team regularly playing OVC teams is UTC and now Mercer (but that's against APSU) rather than the conferences really playing each other.

There really isn't any evidence to the SoCon being any better than the OVC right now.

However this season does look to be a good one for the SoCon so we shall see how it goes.

melloware13

July 28th, 2016, 11:28 AM

1. OVER Maine 4.19
2. UNDER Wagner 3.09
3. OVER Lehigh 4.90
4. OVER Delaware 5.58
5. UNDER Coastal Carolina 10.72

SU DOG

July 28th, 2016, 11:43 AM

Article on the strength of the Southern conference addressing the "bad rap".

http://wate.com/2016/07/28/southern-conference-football-looking-to-bounce-back/

BisonTru

July 28th, 2016, 12:31 PM

1. Under Montana at 8.34
2. Under UNI at 8.10
3. Over SDSU at 6.98
4. Under SHSU at 10.45
5. Under SUU at 6.61

Having done a little more research on SUU. I'd like to remove #5.

Replace with Over YSU at 6.91

eiu1999

July 28th, 2016, 12:59 PM

EIU under 6.89
EKU over 6.81
Jacksonville St under 9.33
Austin Peay under .69
Murray St over 5.00
SEMO over 4.79
Tenn Tech over 3.00
Tenn Martin under 5.80
Tenn St under 5.38