Simulation predicts the 2016 Patriot League

[Gangtackle11]

I feel a kindred spirit to the members of the Patriot League. That spirit presents you with the simulation of the 2016 Patriot League.

A few surprises based on the preseason chatter. I have no idea how proficient this simulator is in predicting the season, but here goes:

Fordham 10-1 (6-0)
Colgate 6-4 (5-1)
Holy Cross 6-5 (4-2)
Bucknell 4-7 (2-4)
Lehigh 3-8 (3-3)
Georgetown 3-8 (1-5)
Lafayette 0-11 (0-6)

FCS Playoffs: Fordham

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&Itemid=74

[DFW HOYA]

Lafayette will not finish 0-11. And no way Lehigh will be 3-8.

But if HC finishes 6-5 (again), the heat on Gilmore will increase.

[Gangtackle11]

Lafayette will not finish 0-11. And no way Lehigh will be 3-8.
But if HC finishes 6-5 (again), the heat on Gilmore will increase.

How the computer saw Lehigh & Lafayette:

Lehigh
Monmouth 28-29 L
@Villanova 21-33 L
@Yale 27-34 L
Princeton 30-35 L
@Penn 28-35 L
Colgate 29-31 L
@Georgetown 31-26 W
@Holy Cross 27-33 L
Fordham 31-43 L
Bucknell 24-20 W
@Lafayette 31-24 W

Lafayette
@CCSU 19-28 L
Delaware 10-23 L
@Princeton 19-38 L
Villanova 10-30 L
Holy Cross 17-21 L
@Fordham 19-45 L
@Army 9-38 L
@Bucknell 13-24 L
Georgetown 20-21 L
@Colgate 17-33 L
Lehigh 24-31 L

[DFW HOYA]

What was Georgetown's numbers in the simulation? I'm guessing it predicted wins over Marist, Davidson, and the aforementioned Lafayette.

[Gangtackle11]

What was Georgetown's numbers in the simulation? I'm guessing it predicted wins over Marist, Davidson, and the aforementioned Lafayette.

Georgetown:
Davidson 41-10 W
@Marist 17-19 L
Columbia 21-16 W
@Harvard 9-38 L
Princeton 20-37 L
Lehigh 26-31 L
@Fordham 17-42 L
@Lafayette 21-20 W
Holy Cross 20-28 L
Bucknell 16-19 L
@Colgate 17-31 L

[LeopardBall10]

I wouldn't be terribly surprised if this were the final order, although I agree that the win-loss totals are probably off. I don't think Lafayette goes winless, but a loss in the first game against CCSU makes improving on last year much harder. I don't think Fordham is good enough to win every game after Navy. They will loss one or two that they should be able to win, including one league loss. And I definitely think the Moutianhawks will be better than 3 wins.

[bgsmitty43]

Georgetown:
Davidson 41-10 W
@Marist 17-19 L
Columbia 21-16 W
@Harvard 9-38 L
Princeton 20-37 L
Lehigh 26-31 L
@Fordham 17-42 L
@Lafayette 21-20 W
Holy Cross 20-28 L
Bucknell 16-19 L
@Colgate 17-31 L

I think Georgetown COULD win another 4 games. Marist, Princeton (at home), Holy Cross (at home), and Bucknell (at home) are all winnable. If they win 7 games, Sgarlata should be PL Coach of the Year! Realistically, I would take a 5-6 win season. That would continue an upward trend for Hoya football. Patriot League championship in 2018? I have a dream!

[Fordham]

God bless you and your computer simulator. 1/2 of our fan base has already emailed the AD asking for Breiner to get an extension.

Do you mind posting the Fordham results?

[Gangtackle11]

God bless you and your computer simulator. 1/2 of our fan base has already emailed the AD asking for Breiner to get an extension.

Do you mind posting the Fordham results?

Haha.

Fordham
@Navy 24-40 L
Elizabeth City W (d2 doesn't sim)
Penn 41-27 W
@Monmouth 35-26 W
Lafayette 45-19 W
Yale 37-25 W
Georgetown 42-17 W
@Lehigh 43-31 W
Colgate 38-27 W
@Holy Cross 37-30 W
@Bucknell 31-19 W

[Gater]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=22820&stc=1

Not sure if I did it wrong, but this has Colgate losing to Fordham 38-10 (I would assume Fordham fans think I did it perfectly). Colgate goes 6-4 with two loses in the league (the other being Holy Cross).

[van]

Interesting that gang did a PL simulation

[Gangtackle11]

Interesting that gang did a PL simulation

Adding to any speculation that the 'Cats are PL wanna bees. Ha

Really just follow all East FCS football closely. Plus was curious for computer outcomes for our 2 PL opponents.

[TheValleyRaider]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=22820&stc=1

Not sure if I did it wrong, but this has Colgate losing to Fordham 38-10 (I would assume Fordham fans think I did it perfectly). Colgate goes 6-4 with two loses in the league (the other being Holy Cross).

I ran one myself last night for us. Went 4-6, starting 0-6 then finishing 4-0 (shades of '96)

I like yours better, if only because I'm not sure I'd expect losing to Bucknell and Cornell but beating Fordham (as happened in the one I ran)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

There will be mutiny if Lehigh goes 3-8. Schedule is tough like last year. Yet even with a terrible defense they managed 6-5.

8-3 should be the expectation with 7-4 or 9-2 being play...

[Gangtackle11]

I ran one myself last night for us. Went 4-6, starting 0-6 then finishing 4-0 (shades of '96)

I like yours better, if only because I'm not sure I'd expect losing to Bucknell and Cornell but beating Fordham (as happened in the one I ran)

The sim had the Raiders at 0-3 in mine. Beat Cornell & were 5-1 in league play with a loss to the Rams.

If it played out that way there will be some grumpy fans looking for a 11th game & a 7th win for playoffs.

[RichH2]

How the computer saw Lehigh & Lafayette:

Lehigh
Monmouth 28-29 L
@Villanova 21-33 L
@Yale 27-34 L
Princeton 30-35 L
@Penn 28-35 L
Colgate 29-31 L
@Georgetown 31-26 W
@Holy Cross 27-33 L
Fordham 31-43 L
Bucknell 24-20 W
@Lafayette 31-24 W

Lafayette
@CCSU 19-28 L
Delaware 10-23 L
@Princeton 19-38 L
Villanova 10-30 L
Holy Cross 17-21 L
@Fordham 19-45 L
@Army 9-38 L
@Bucknell 13-24 L
Georgetown 20-21 L
@Colgate 17-33 L
Lehigh 24-31 L

Basic premise is Lehigh D will be just as bad as last year and the O wont be as good. If premise correct ,the record is likely also. Absent another raft of injuries on D , the D will be better. How much?The answer will determine the year.

[Go...gate]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=22820&stc=1

Not sure if I did it wrong, but this has Colgate losing to Fordham 38-10 (I would assume Fordham fans think I did it perfectly). Colgate goes 6-4 with two loses in the league (the other being Holy Cross).

I actually think 6-4 could be correct. Cross is always tough for us and I think Fordham will be very good (though not 28 points better) Surprised the Richmond prediction is not closer. I think that could be a very competitive game.

[Gater]

Go 'gate, I didn't understand how it works--you can run it a bunch of times. Colgate mostly finishes 6-4 or 5-5. They never beat Syracuse or Richmond. Win one out of about twenty against Fordham. Not sure why Fordham would be that much of a lock. I'm assuming it's because Trump went there.

Fordham folks, I have a question for you. I've watched Edmonds play a bunch and he's one of the best backs I've seen at the FCS level. Even when Colgate contained him this past year, he looked ready to break a run at any time (it almost always took multiple guys to bring him down). Over his last four games (beginning with Colgate) he averaged 3.8 yards a carry and 61 yards a game. Even if you take out the playoff game (where he had three rushes for five yards) he still only averaged 80 yards a game. Was it just a coincidence that this is how he finished the season or did something happen to him/the team after he ran for 1,200 yards against Lehigh?

[Franks Tanks]

Fordham will take a step back, they just will. The new coach is very young, and had the title of OC, but we know Moorhead ran the entire offence and called the plays. Yes, Fordham still has a bunch of very talented players, but I think they will take a small step back next year, and each year moving forward, until they are back to being a "normal" PL squad.

[DFW HOYA]

So which coach is under the most pressure to win this year, taking Sgarlata and Breiner out of the discussion?

[LUHawker]

So which coach is under the most pressure to win this year, taking Sgarlata and Breiner out of the discussion?

Given the poor track record, most might say Gilmore, but I actually think Coen because there appears to be more impatience with him than there is for Gilmore.

In reality, Tavani should be the guy really on the hotseat given LC's record over the last 5+ years, but as our Pard friends note incessantly, Frankie T. isn't going anywhere until he says so.

[RichH2]

Given the poor track record, most might say Gilmore, but I actually think Coen because there appears to be more impatience with him than there is for Gilmore.

In reality, Tavani should be the guy really on the hotseat given LC's record over the last 5+ years, but as our Pard friends note incessantly, Frankie T. isn't going anywhere until he says so.
Actually dont see any on the hot seat going into this year.
Andy may be if team regresses to a losing record. A winning record with a bad D akin to last year may be even worse.
Gilmore has the pieces this year for a good year. Cabeat is most of his best players and speed are underclassmen.
Tavani will leave on his own terms and time.

[bgsmitty43]

There will be mutiny if Lehigh goes 3-8. Schedule is tough like last year. Yet even with a terrible defense they managed 6-5.

8-3 should be the expectation with 7-4 or 9-2 being play...

Lehigh will win a minimum three more games: Monmouth, Princeton, and Holy Cross. After that, we'll see how O progresses. They have two solid QBs. I think their D is underrated. Haven't seen him play, but I hear great things about Caslow. Their D will carry them early, then add an upset and Lehigh finishes 7-4.

[Sader87]

I think Gilmore is very much on the hot seat this year. His latest downturn (W/L wise anyway) was largely masked by coaching turmoil/tumult in our other high-profile (such as it is) coaching position, men's hoops. With that position stabilized with the Carmody hire and HC's improbable run into the NCAA tourney, the spotlight is now on Gilmore. HC is building a new multi-million dollar indoor practice facility, has scheduled FBS opponents BC, Syracuse and UConn in the next few years, has gone all in on FCS scholarship football etc etc....basically, HC is sticking its toe back into the "entertainment business" that Father Brooks forswore back in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

I would rank PL football coaches on the hotseat thusly (on a 1-4 flame basis, 4 being the hottest):

1. Gilmore xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx
2. Tavani xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx
3. Coen xflamemadxxflamemadx
4. Susan xflamemadx
5. Hunt xflamemadx

6. Sgarlata none

7. Brenier none

[LUHawker]

I think Gilmore is very much on the hot seat this year. His latest downturn (W/L wise anyway) was largely masked by coaching turmoil/tumult in our other high-profile (such as it is) coaching position, men's hoops. With that position stabilized with the Carmody hire and HC's improbable run into the NCAA tourney, the spotlight is now on Gilmore. HC is building a new multi-million dollar indoor practice facility, has scheduled FBS opponents BC, Syracuse and UConn in the next few years, has gone all in on FCS scholarship football etc etc....basically, HC is sticking its toe back into the "entertainment business" that Father Brooks forswore back in the late 1970s/early 1980s.

I would rank PL football coaches on the hotseat thusly (on a 1-4 flame basis, 4 being the hottest):

1. Gilmore xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx
2. Tavani xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx
3. Coen xflamemadxxflamemadx
4. Susan xflamemadx
5. Hunt xflamemadx

6. Sgarlata none

7. Brenier none

Not sure how Hunt could even have 1 flame after Colgate's playoff run last year.

[Sader87]

Not sure how Hunt could even have 1 flame after Colgate's playoff run last year.

Just in the sense that there will always be "some fire" on one's backside if you're the head guy at Colgate. If Hunt trips up badly this year, i'm sure there will be some heat on him in Hamilton come Wintahh.

I probably should have given a key of some sort for this. Each school is different in these regards so a "one size-fits all" probably doesn't work exactly. Mine would probably be:

xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx: Must win now....pressure is most certainly on.
xflamemadxxflamemadxxflamemadx: Approaching critical....
xflamemadxxflamemadx: Becoming concerned....let's get this straightened out pronto.
xflamemadx: Everything is basically fine....it would be nice if we won a little more though.
No xflamemadx: A variation of: A. Coach in his 1st year and B. We have a football team?

[DFW HOYA]

No xflamemadx: A variation of: A. Coach in his 1st year and B. We have a football team?

Yes, Fordham has a team... xlolx

But by that standard, no PL coach ever gets above two hot seats.

[Fordham]

Fordham will take a step back, they just will. The new coach is very young, and had the title of OC, but we know Moorhead ran the entire offence and called the plays. Yes, Fordham still has a bunch of very talented players, but I think they will take a small step back next year, and each year moving forward, until they are back to being a "normal" PL squad.
certainly possible given what you mentioned but it's also possible that we exceed expectations and go further than Moorhead ever did. No one is a bigger fan of his than mine and he left the cupboard very full with, I believe, 18 of 22 starters coming back and a ton of freshman who gained valuable experience last year who should get that freshman to sophomore improvement that tends to the biggest jump imo. Same offensive system with a returning stud QB, TE and the best back in FCS. The difference maker could be Breiner's admission that the D has not gotten it done and he plans on implementing dramatic changes. I'm not sure what those details are but anyone who watched our team these past few years knows that was our Achilles' heal. We have talent but were just porous overall. If a new coach, new scheme and new energy brings about improvements on D, that's where it's possible to see us improve.

Again, not saying that you're take won't happen, just that there's a rationale version that has us improving as well (plus, it's the off season and everything can be looked at with Rose <Hill> colored lenses).

[Go...gate]

Not sure how Hunt could even have 1 flame after Colgate's playoff run last year.

Agreed - why is Hunt under any heat at all?

[TheValleyRaider]

I see what he's saying. On a scale of 1 to 4, Hunt is a 1, the lowest possible. The only way expectations could be lower would be if it were his 1st year, when there wouldn't really be expectations at all.

Of course, off DFW's point, it's all relative. A "serious" football program would probably have fired Gilmore already, and I think at all of our institutions the instinct is to let the coach get out of trouble rather than cut him loose if there is a downturn

[Sader87]

Yes, Fordham has a team... xlolx

But by that standard, no PL coach ever gets above two hot seats.

Historically, I don't disagree. I think in the era of scholarship football in the PL that attitude will change though. I am near certain that if Gilmore is undah .500 this year, it will be his last on Mt St James.

Tavani and Gilmore are both sort of the last vestiges of the "good old boys" as head coaches from a different, less-pressurized (for bettah or worse) Patriot League.

[NY Crusader 2010]

Just been having a lot of fun with this simulation thing and I cobbled together a six-game schedule with 2007 Holy Cross (not our PL title team, but our best offense of the Randolph era).



Game 1
Results
William & Mary (2007)
36

Holy Cross (2007)
39


Game 2
Results
Holy Cross (2007)
10

Boston Coll. (2007)
35


Game 3
Results
Holy Cross (2007)
37

New Hampshire (2007)
52


Game 4
Results
Iona (2007)
20

Holy Cross (2007)
34


Game 5
Results
Marist (2007)
9

Holy Cross (2007)
25


Game 6
Results
Holy Cross (2007)
46

Appalachian St. (2007)
43

[Sader87]

Game 1
Results
Boston College (1987)
14

Holy Cross (1987)
18


Game 2
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
23

Notre Dame (1987)
36


Game 3
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
18

Alabama (1987)
30


Game 4
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
34

NE Louisiana (1987)
31


Game 5
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
13

Air Force (1987)
29


Game 6
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
24

Miami (Florida) (1987)
51





Holy Cross (1987)

[Go...gate]

Game 1
Results
Boston College (1987)
14

Holy Cross (1987)
18


Game 2
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
23

Notre Dame (1987)
36


Game 3
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
18

Alabama (1987)
30


Game 4
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
34

NE Louisiana (1987)
31


Game 5
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
13

Air Force (1987)
29


Game 6
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
24

Miami (Florida) (1987)
51





Holy Cross (1987)


Anyone who saw the 1987 HC team would find the analysis reasonable, but I believe you guys might also have knocked off the Air Force.

[Andy]

Brutal injuries last year for LC, maybe your squads had them in the years cited:

Combined PL record '13 - '14

Fordham - 11-1
Tavani - 8-4
Susan - 7-5
Hunt - 6-6
Coen - 6-6
Gilmore - 3-9

[Sader87]

Out of curiosity's sake:



Game 1
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
44

Holy Cross (2016)
3


Game 2
Results
Holy Cross (2016)
8

Holy Cross (1987)
57


Game 3
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
56

Holy Cross (2016)
8


Game 4
Results
Holy Cross (2016)
3

Holy Cross (1987)
47


Game 5
Results
Holy Cross (1987)
41

Holy Cross (2016)
12


Game 6
Results
Holy Cross (2016)
9

Holy Cross (1987)
53





Holy Cross (2016)

[KPSUL]

Was 87 HC during the Gordie Lockbaum era?

[Sader87]

Yes...he was a Sr during the 1987 season.