Simulation predicts the 2016 CAA

[Gangtackle11]

I used the 100 game head-to-head matchup option to determine the 2016 CAA Football race. (Slow night with most of my family away)

There was a 3-way tie at the top as the 3 Virginia teams managed 7-1 Conference records. Each team went 1-1 against the others.

James Madison 9-2 (7-1)
Richmond 9-2 (7-1)
William & Mary 9-2 (7-1)
Villanova 8-3 (6-2)
Towson 6-5 (5-3)
UNH 6-5 (5-3)
Delaware 5-6 (3-5)
Stony Brook 5-6 (3-5)
Albany 4-7 (2-6)
Elon 3-8 (1-7)
Maine 2-9 (1-7)
Rhode Island 0-11 (0-8)

Playoff teams (4):
James Madison
Richmond
William & Mary
Villanova

[superman7515]

Delaware at 5-6 sounds optimistic.

[Gangtackle11]

Delaware at 5-6 sounds optimistic.
Delaware
Delaware State 38-10 W
@Lafayette 23-10 W
@Wake Forest 10-31 L
@JMU 21-33 L
Maine 21-14 W
@William & Mary 17-27 L
Stony Brook 17-13 W
Towson 17-20 L
@Albany 21-17 W
@Richmond 20-31 L
Villanova 17-21 L

[superman7515]

Delaware
Delaware State 38-10 W
@Lafayette 23-10 W
@Wake Forest 10-31 L
@JMU 21-33 L
Maine 21-14 W
@William & Mary 17-27 L
Stony Brook 17-13 W
Towson 17-20 L
@Albany 21-17 W
@Richmond 20-31 L
Villanova 17-21 L

I see both the Maine and Stony Brook win's as potential stumbling blocks that could jeopardize the 5-6 prediction, but generally agree with the rest of the assessment. At least, the results, not necessarily the scores.

[mmiller_34]

I used the 100 game head-to-head matchup option to determine the 2016 CAA Football race. (Slow night with most of my family away)

There was a 3-way tie at the top as the 3 Virginia teams managed 7-1 Conference records. Each team went 1-1 against the others.

James Madison 9-2 (7-1)
Richmond 9-2 (7-1)
William & Mary 9-2 (7-1)
Villanova 8-3 (6-2)
Towson 6-5 (5-3)
UNH 6-5 (5-3)
Delaware 5-6 (3-5)
Stony Brook 5-6 (3-5)
Albany 4-7 (2-6)
Elon 3-8 (1-7)
Maine 2-9 (1-7)
Rhode Island 0-11 (0-8)

Playoff teams (4):
James Madison
Richmond
William & Mary
Villanova

Can you post the website? I can never find it.

[Gangtackle11]

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&Itemid=74

[bluehenbillk]

Sadly 5-6 is about right for UD. The good news is it will force a coaching change & put UD back on the map.

[Mattymc727]

Seems to be by the book. There will be a wrench thrown in somewhere. With this schedule, UNH would have to really stink to be 6-5 IMO

[Gangtackle11]

Seems to be by the book. There will be a wrench thrown in somewhere. With this schedule, UNH would have to really stink to be 6-5 IMO

Well to a degree it is because I used the 100 game simulation. When you simulate just 1 game the chance for "upsets" are greater.

Here is how UNH simmed:

@San Diego St. 13-38 L
Holy Cross 31-22 W
@Dartmouth 21-25 L
Rhode Island 28-16 W
W&M 21-27 L
@Elon 27-17 W
JMU 28-37 L
@Towson 21-27 L
Stony Brook 21-16 W
Albany 28-20 W
@Maine 24-21 W

[ccd494]

There is NO WAY Maine goes 2-9. Zero.

[Gangtackle11]

There is NO WAY Maine goes 2-9. Zero.

Maine by computer:
@UConn 9-33 L
@Toledo 13-40 L
JMU 21-34 L
Bryant 27-23 W
@Delaware 14-21 L
Albany 20-21 L
@Rhode Island 23-16 W
@W&M 10-37 L
Villanova 16-23 L
@Stony Brook 16-20 L
New Hampshire 21-28 L

[RootinFerDukes]

Could you post the JMU simulation please? Does this simulator just look at "on paper" numbers or does it take into account the current roster, transfers, coaching changes and so on. I'd say 9-2 is very optimistic for us.

[Gangtackle11]

Could you post the JMU simulation please? Does this simulator just look at "on paper" numbers or does it take into account the current roster, transfers, coaching changes and so on. I'd say 9-2 is very optimistic for us.

JMU
Morehead State 57-17 W
CCSU 42-17 W
@UNC 24-50 L
@Maine 34-21 W
Delaware 34-23 W
W&M 31-27 W
@UNH 37-28 W
Rhode Island 44-17 W
@Richmond 34-37 L
@Villanova 29-27 W
Elon 38-17 W

[OhioHen]

Maine by computer:
@UConn 9-33 L
@Toledo 13-40 L
JMU 21-34 L
Bryant 27-23 W
@Delaware 14-21 L
Albany 20-21 L
@Rhode Island 23-16 W
@W&M 10-37 L
Villanova 16-23 L
@Stony Brook 16-20 L
New Hampshire 21-28 L


There is NO WAY Maine goes 2-9. Zero.

Which projected win do you see the Black Bears losing? xpopcornx

[Mattymc727]

What if you did 10 simulations?

[Gangtackle11]

What if you did 10 simulations?

Not my simulation. There is a thread here, but not to that detail. The site allows you to do 1 or 100 match ups from what I know.

[RootinFerDukes]

JMU
Morehead State 57-17 W
CCSU 42-17 W
@UNC 24-50 L
@Maine 34-21 W
Delaware 34-23 W
W&M 31-27 W
@UNH 37-28 W
Rhode Island 44-17 W
@Richmond 34-37 L
@Villanova 29-27 W
Elon 38-17 W

Boo! We ain't losin' to no SPATTERS!

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

JMU
Morehead State 57-17 W
CCSU 42-17 W
@UNC 24-50 L
@Maine 34-21 W
Delaware 34-23 W
W&M 31-27 W
@UNH 37-28 W
Rhode Island 44-17 W
@Richmond 34-37 L
@Villanova 29-27 W
Elon 38-17 W

Does it project if ESPN Gameday will be there for the loss to Richmond again this year?

[RootinFerDukes]

Does it project if ESPN Gameday will be there for the loss to Richmond again this year?

For UR's sake, you might not want the 1k spider fans in attendance broadcasted on national tv. It'll be a pitiful sight. There will probably be more vcu fans there lol.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

ZINGER! HEY NOW!

[KPSUL]

Well to a degree it is because I used the 100 game simulation. When you simulate just 1 game the chance for "upsets" are greater.

Here is how UNH simmed:

@San Diego St. 13-38 L
Holy Cross 31-22 W
@Dartmouth 21-25 L
Rhode Island 28-16 W
W&M 21-27 L
@Elon 27-17 W
JMU 28-37 L
@Towson 21-27 L
Stony Brook 21-16 W
Albany 28-20 W
@Maine 24-21 W

Apparently the simulation hasn't attended the last 18 UNH / Dartmouth games either. The only way Dartmouth beats UNH on September 17th is if Dartmouth's class of 2016 is allowed to come back and play in the game. On the other hand, a loss by only 25 to San Diego state could be viewed as a success for UNH in game #1.

[Dane96]

Maine by computer:
@UConn 9-33 L
@Toledo 13-40 L
JMU 21-34 L
Bryant 27-23 W
@Delaware 14-21 L
Albany 20-21 L
@Rhode Island 23-16 W
@W&M 10-37 L
Villanova 16-23 L
@Stony Brook 16-20 L
New Hampshire 21-28 L

So basically, St. Francis would beat Maine and Albany (if Albany beats Maine). Sorry...don't think so. Both are much better squads than the Red Flash (who have done a yeoman's job of trying to right that ship...but not that good).

[Terry2889]

Apparently the simulation hasn't attended the last 18 UNH / Dartmouth games either. The only way Dartmouth beats UNH on September 17th is if Dartmouth's class of 2016 is allowed to come back and play in the game. On the other hand, a loss by only 25 to San Diego state could be viewed as a success for UNH in game #1.

Flip the Dartmouth and either the JMU and W & M score and I agree with this simulation. Although, who's to say we don't slip up against a team that we should beat ala Delaware/ Stoney Brook from last year?

[Milktruck74]

Mocs are 10-0 headed into the money game with Bama....I could take that,but I cant see us running the table in the SoCon this year. I'm not sure who trips us up, but I'm pretty sure somebody does....it could be WCU, Mercer, Cit, FU, Woffy, Sammy or even VMI....Dear Jesus, please don't let it be VMI!!!!

[RootinFerDukes]

Mocs are 10-0 headed into the money game with Bama....I could take that,but I cant see us running the table in the SoCon this year. I'm not sure who trips us up, but I'm pretty sure somebody does....it could be WCU, Mercer, Cit, FU, Woffy, Sammy or even VMI....Dear Jesus, please don't let it be VMI!!!!

Well in the CAA I promise you guys will at least beat Rhode Island.

[Gangtackle11]

So basically, St. Francis would beat Maine and Albany (if Albany beats Maine). Sorry...don't think so. Both are much better squads than the Red Flash (who have done a yeoman's job of trying to right that ship...but not that good).

Actually St.Francis - Albany was simulated as a tie. I gave the Red Flash the win because they were projected to win 55% of 100 games played.

St. Francis @ Maine results in a Maine win by 5 points. Win 66 of 100 games played.

That's the rest of the story.