2016 FCS and FBS teams added to simulation

[ebemiss]

I've just added all 2016 FBS and FCS teams to the simulation/game I have. Here's a single game sample and a 100 game match up with just scores.

Single games.

Portland St vs Montana

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=1101 (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=7195)

New Hampshire vs Richmond

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=1102

Northern Iowa vs N. Dakota St

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=1103

100 game match up (Albany vs Villanova)

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&magic=1106

Hit play again to get a different result each time. Just like if they played multiple times.

It's not perfect but It'll give you an idea of the strengths of these teams especially if you use the 100 game match up.

You can play out a teams season and have them advance to a playoff by using this link (pick college football d1, pick your team, schedule length, then add opponents w/location)

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&Itemid=74

You can also create a 4,8,16,32 and 64 team tournament to mess with as well. That is here:

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_tournchamp&Itemid=73

[KPSUL]

Apparently your simulation has not attended the last five UNH / Richmond games.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Apparently your simulation has not attended the last five UNH / Richmond games.

Hah. Since we don't play this year, I'm totally open to accepting this as the result.

[KPSUL]

Hah. Since we don't play this year, I'm totally open to accepting this as the result.

I'm also happy we are only playing a simulation this regular season!

[Terry2889]

Hah. Since we don't play this year, I'm totally open to accepting this as the result.

You're already 1-0 in conference! Congrats!

[Terry2889]

I'm also happy we are only playing a simulation this regular season!

Seriously. If I had to watch you guys line up in a three TE set and run zone belly for 15 yards a pop one more time I might have thrown up. I never saw a more poorly thought out defensive scheme than this damn 4-2-5!

[mvemjsunpx]

Montana Schedule (100-game sim averages)


SFPA - 37-18 W
@UNI - 20-29 L
@CP - 30-29 W
SUU - 26-20 W
MVSU - 53-8 W
SAC - 34-17 W
@NAU - 32-27 W
@EWU - 33-32 W
ISU - 43-16 W
@NOCO - 36-22 W
MTST - 38-26 W


10-1 (8-0) xthumbsupxxeyebrowx

[DFW HOYA]

Simulation result: Villanova 19, Georgetown 3...Not likely, but I'll take it.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Simulated a few different teams. Did MT - Idaho as well. MT wins 74/100 in that matchup. I love this time of year when the simulator comes back to life. Thanks for posting it up again this season.

[mvemjsunpx]

Simulated a few different teams. Did MT - Idaho as well. MT wins 74/100 in that matchup. I love this time of year when the simulator comes back to life. Thanks for posting it up again this season.

The Griz better be favored against Idalol. May as well drop football if that isn't the case. xcoffeex

[KPSUL]

Montana Schedule (100-game sim averages)


SFPA - 37-18 W
@UNI - 20-29 L
@CP - 30-29 W
SUU - 26-20 W
MVSU - 53-8 W
SAC - 34-17 W
@NAU - 32-27 W
@EWU - 33-32 W
ISU - 43-16 W
@NOCO - 36-22 W
MTST - 38-26 W


10-1 (8-0) xthumbsupxxeyebrowx

That was easy, see you in Frisco!

[clenz]

UNI at 9-2 (7-1) with losses to Iowa State and....Youngstown State?

That likely gives UNI the conference title and a top 2 seed in the playoffs.

Nice

http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160707/607d7eafbc712f229087e8ac73aae3ed.png

[Bisonator]

Some puzzling scores here.



Game 1
Results
Charleston Sou. (2016)
23

North Dakota St. (2016)
50


Game 2
Results
Eastern Wash. (2016)
29

North Dakota St. (2016)
50


Game 3
Results
North Dakota St. (2016)
25

Iowa (2016)
35


Game 4
Results
Illinois St. (2016)
29

North Dakota St. (2016)
28


Game 5
Results
North Dakota St. (2016)
30

Missouri St. (2016)
3


Game 6
Results
South Dakota St. (2016)
9

North Dakota St. (2016)
41


Game 7
Results
North Dakota St. (2016)
26

Western Ill. (2016)
11


Game 8
Results
North Dakota St. (2016)
34

Northern Iowa (2016)
18


Game 9
Results
Youngstown St. (2016)
9

North Dakota St. (2016)
11


Game 10
Results
Indiana St. (2016)
3

North Dakota St. (2016)
44


Game 11
Results
North Dakota St. (2016)
24

South Dakota (2016)
15





North Dakota St. (2016)

Record 9-2

[ebemiss]

Thanks for checking out the simulation and I appreciate the feedback.

For accuracy purposes using the 100 game match-up for a single game will give you a better idea of how the teams are rated rather than the season simulation that's only playing each game once. Both are fun but for predictive purposes the 100 game is more accurate.

Single game w/100 game sime

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_oneonone&Itemid=100

Season sim (plays entire schedule that you setup but only plays each game 1 time) You'll get different results each time you'd run it. Here's a tip. If you hit refresh (F5) before you click advance to playoffs it will run the season again to give you another set of results.

http://nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_dreamseason&Itemid=74

Once I get some time (in the next week or so) I'll double check each team's schedule I have currently, and run win projections for each team based on my current power ranking for each team.

[ST_Lawson]

Just curious where you got your power rankings that are used in the simulation. I ran through WIU's schedule, and most results I can understand (although I'm hoping we do a bit better than it's predicting for a few of them)....but I ran the 100-game sim three times with our game against Missouri State and it had us losing every "series"...although generally not by more than 3 points.

I can kinda see a bit of a drop of our ranking depending on how much stock you put into the abilities of the head coach vs the abilities of the players, but we're returning nearly everyone from last year and we had a fairly decent team last year. Still, Missouri State hasn't had a winning season since '09 and last year their only win was against a DII school...did they improve that much over the offseason while I wasn't paying attention?

Anyway, I was just wondering if there was something playing into that result that I'm just not seeing, or what.

For the curious, here's what it gave me for 100-game sims of each of our scheduled games this season:

@ Eastern Illinois - Loss, 29-27
vs Northern Arizona - Win, 33-28
@ Northern Illinois - Loss, 33-17
@ South Dakota St. - Loss, 32-19
vs Indiana State - Win, 29-22
@ Missouri State - Loss, 25-24
vs North Dakota St. - Loss, 33-13
@ South Dakota - Win, 24-23
vs Illinois State - Loss, 31-22
vs Northern Iowa - Loss, 30-20
@ Southern Illinois - Loss, 33-28

Final Record of 3-8

[clenz]

The EIU and MSU loss are strange. Has USD as a toss up, which I don't disagree with entirely since it's at USD, Illinois State depends on how they progess but I'd put that as a W for WIU.

I think 3-8 is a bit of dooms day, but wouldn't second guess 6 or 7 win season being very real.

W:
EIU
NAU
ISUB
MSU
SIU

L
NIU
SDSU
NDSU
UNI

50/50
USD
ISUR

[BisonTru]

MSU isn't strange, that's flat out asinine. They couldn't keep even one game competitive for a half. I wonder if WIU not playing them last year somehow is effecting the prediction. Pretty sure Western would have won by any score they would have wanted last year.

[clenz]

MSU isn't strange, that's flat out asinine. They couldn't keep even one game competitive for a half. I wonder if WIU not playing them last year somehow is effecting the prediction. Pretty sure Western would have won by any score they would have wanted last year.
Agreed.

MSU was atrocious, and needs to be impossibly better this year to win an MVFC game without divine intervention

[ebemiss]

Just curious where you got your power rankings that are used in the simulation. I ran through WIU's schedule, and most results I can understand (although I'm hoping we do a bit better than it's predicting for a few of them)....but I ran the 100-game sim three times with our game against Missouri State and it had us losing every "series"...although generally not by more than 3 points.

I can kinda see a bit of a drop of our ranking depending on how much stock you put into the abilities of the head coach vs the abilities of the players, but we're returning nearly everyone from last year and we had a fairly decent team last year. Still, Missouri State hasn't had a winning season since '09 and last year their only win was against a DII school...did they improve that much over the offseason while I wasn't paying attention?

Anyway, I was just wondering if there was something playing into that result that I'm just not seeing, or what.

For the curious, here's what it gave me for 100-game sims of each of our scheduled games this season:

@ Eastern Illinois - Loss, 29-27
vs Northern Arizona - Win, 33-28
@ Northern Illinois - Loss, 33-17
@ South Dakota St. - Loss, 32-19
vs Indiana State - Win, 29-22
@ Missouri State - Loss, 25-24
vs North Dakota St. - Loss, 33-13
@ South Dakota - Win, 24-23
vs Illinois State - Loss, 31-22
vs Northern Iowa - Loss, 30-20
@ Southern Illinois - Loss, 33-28

Final Record of 3-8

I just checked Missouri State and I do have them about a touchdown higher than last year. That may be a bit ambitious but factoring in their returning personnel they look improved.

[ebemiss]

I have Western Illinios (if that's the team you are referring to) 24 points better than Missouri State on a neutral field. If you are getting Missouri State beating them consistently I'll have to triple check those figures in the database. Something would be off on my end if that's the case.

[clenz]

I just checked Missouri State and I do have them about a touchdown higher than last year. That may be a bit ambitious but factoring in their returning personnel they look improved.

Missouri State is returning players but they are not good.

In terms of statiscal returners they are 5th in passing coming back, 8th in rushing, last by a massive margin with receivers coming back and while they return a decent amount on defense they gave up 50 points per game and about 600 ypg last year while being outscored 48-9

A touchdown better moves that to about 45-12

[clenz]

I have Western Illinios (if that's the team you are referring to) 24 points better than Missouri State on a neutral field. If you are getting Missouri State beating them consistently I'll have to triple check those figures in the database. Something would be off on my end if that's the case.
Looks like he has it @ Missouri State

I ran a 100 game match up and got

Missouri St.(2016) wins 51 of 100 matchups against Western Ill.(2016)


Projected Score: Missouri St. 25 Western Ill. 24


Run it with WIU as the home team and they win 70 of 100 (still far too low).

Something is very goof there.


WIU returns the most players/stats at every position except rushing in the MVFC and it's really not close


My "weighted" averages....which is a "meh" measure on it's best day and it's best hour



Team
Rushing
Passing
Recieving
Defense
Total


Western Illinois
32.83
76.89
92.79
182.20
384.71


South Dakota State
78.91
80.33
98.50
117.60
375.34


North Dakota State
115.56
39.63
76.33
130.40
361.92


Northern Iowa
109.76
45.84
51.44
114.00
321.04


Youngstown State
81.92
53.25
30.57
130.80
296.54


Southern Illinois
44.20
0.47
93.12
124.00
261.79


Missouri State
32.13
28.07
29.63
129.00
218.83


Illinois State
12.73
7.49
72.26
119.70
212.18


Indiana State
44.07
0.89
48.60
98.90
192.46


South Dakota
52.31
2.45
42.14
92.20
189.10

[ST_Lawson]

The EIU and MSU loss are strange. Has USD as a toss up, which I don't disagree with entirely since it's at USD, Illinois State depends on how they progess but I'd put that as a W for WIU.

I think 3-8 is a bit of dooms day, but wouldn't second guess 6 or 7 win season being very real.

W:
EIU
NAU
ISUB
MSU
SIU

L
NIU
SDSU
NDSU
UNI

50/50
USD
ISUR

Yea, I'm pretty much in agreement with you on that. Not saying it's not possible that we'll only get 3, but at least a couple of those that the simulation predicted as a loss, I'm fairly confident we'll win...like you said, EIU and MSU...we should win both of those. ISUb should also be a win, I think...at our place, with our QB actually having experience this time.

Northern Arizona is tricky...the best QB in the Big Sky...probably one of the best in the country...but, do they have a defense? The usual answer with a Big Sky team is..."no". And how well does he do against a MVFC defense? Hard to say.

I'd put SIU as a toss-up actually...we barely beat them at our place last year. They lost Ianotti, but it's at Carbondale this year...then again, it's the weekend before Thanksgiving break, so probably the crowd won't be all that into it (especially if they're already eliminated from making the playoffs).

I don't see us beating UNI (assuming all their weapons are healthy), even though it's at our place this time...and until something drastically changes, I don't see us beating NDSU any time soon. The point differential last year was kinda a fluke, but the win itself wasn't.

SDSU...it'll be at their place this time...conference opener..."Military Appreciation Night"...at the new stadium...and wanting a heaping helping of revenge after last year's regular-season-ending defeat in the blizzard...I don't really think we're going to win that one.

USD is going to be up at the dome, but you can bet our players have that date circled on the calendar. If there is one game they REALLY want to win this year...that's it.

ISUr just depends on how much they drop off after losing a large part of their offense.

[clenz]

Yea, I'm pretty much in agreement with you on that. Not saying it's not possible that we'll only get 3, but at least a couple of those that the simulation predicted as a loss, I'm fairly confident we'll win...like you said, EIU and MSU...we should win both of those. ISUb should also be a win, I think...at our place, with our QB actually having experience this time.

I'd put SIU as a toss-up actually...we barely beat them at our place last year. They lost Ianotti, but it's at Carbondale this year...then again, it's the weekend before Thanksgiving break, so probably the crowd won't be all that into it (especially if they're already eliminated from making the playoffs).

I don't see us beating UNI (assuming all their weapons are healthy), even though it's at our place this time...and until something drastically changes, I don't see us beating NDSU any time soon. The point differential last year was kinda a fluke, but the win itself wasn't.

SDSU...it'll be at their place this time...conference opener..."Military Appreciation Night"...at the new stadium...and wanting a heaping helping of revenge after last year's regular-season-ending defeat in the blizzard...I don't really think we're going to win that one.

USD is going to be up at the dome, but you can bet our players have that date circled on the calendar. If there is one game they REALLY want to win this year...that's it.

ISUr just depends on how much they drop off after losing a large part of their offense.
It sounds odd to talk about how much WIU brings back but then go "Yeah, I could see 6-5 happening again". It really does, but it's a real possibility


The thing with the USD game is USD's staff is going to know WIU personnel very, very, well. They'll know what to look for to exploit players. The game is at USD. The "we need to be our coach that left us" attitude backfires more often than not.

If the game was at WIU I think WIU wins by 8-10. Sitting here, July 7 3 months from the game, I have a hard time being sold on WIU winning that game given all of that - even though WIU has a better roster coming back.

[ST_Lawson]

It sounds odd to talk about how much WIU brings back but then go "Yeah, I could see 6-5 happening again". It really does, but it's a real possibility


The thing with the USD game is USD's staff is going to know WIU personnel very, very, well. They'll know what to look for to exploit players. The game is at USD. The "we need to be our coach that left us" attitude backfires more often than not.

If the game was at WIU I think WIU wins by 8-10. Sitting here, July 7 3 months from the game, I have a hard time being sold on WIU winning that game given all of that - even though WIU has a better roster coming back.

Fair enough...and yea, you're right, their coaching staff will know us very well. Also, we don't have any idea how the new coaching staff is going to work out with our current players. Things are looking good...sounding good...but you don't really know until the cleats hit the turf on week 1.

I could realistically see anything from 7-4 to 4-7, depending on how it all plays out. We won't be horrible, but we obviously won't be at the very top of the conference.

[ST_Lawson]

I have Western Illinios (if that's the team you are referring to) 24 points better than Missouri State on a neutral field. If you are getting Missouri State beating them consistently I'll have to triple check those figures in the database. Something would be off on my end if that's the case.

I double-checked my results (actually ran it a few times) and, like Clenz had it, Western Illinois @ Missouri State, 100 game series:
MSU wins anywhere from 55 to 63 out of 100 with a projected score of usually around 26-23.

Moving the game to Western results in a reversal of about the same amount...WIU wins 62/100 by a projected score of 24-22.
This would make it seem like, according to the numbers it's pulling from, WIU and MSU are about equal and the difference of a few points here or there would be the result of the location of the game...when in reality...it wouldn't even be close.

[BEAR]

Interesting. UCA goes 7-4, beats Samford and Sammie in the regular season and loses in the second round to Sammie.

[SU DOG]

Interesting. UCA goes 7-4, beats Samford and Sammie in the regular season and loses in the second round to Sammie.

You been sandbagging(Southland posters famous for) me Bear Man? According to this UCA wins 66 of the 100 games. xconfusedx

[ebemiss]

I'll adjust the numbers tonight. Obviously there is an error with Missouri state. Thanks

[ebemiss]

ok. I re-uploaded the teams and things seem better. Here's the result I got fro WIU vs Missouri St

Western Ill.(2016) wins 100 of 100 matchups against Missouri St.(2016)
Projected Score: Western Ill. 42 Missouri St. 11

Margin of Victory: 31 Points

[BEAR]

You been sandbagging(Southland posters famous for) me Bear Man? According to this UCA wins 66 of the 100 games. xconfusedx

I think you can ask any Southland team fan when an FCS team loses 30 players they just arent the same the next year. We lost our QB the year after we won the conference and dropped like a rock. Like I told you last year, our best chance to beat you was last year. I wasnt joking. Look how that turned out. xlolx

[SFA 93]

UCA lost 30 players from last year's team? Dang!

Maybe we have a chance this season!

[BisonTru]

NDSU:

vs. Charleston Southern - Win 100/100
vs. Eastern Wash - Win 100/100
@ Iowa - Win 25/100
vs. Illinois St. - Win 85/100
@ Missouri St. - Win 100/100
vs. South Dakota St. - Win 95/100
@ Western Illinois - Win 98/100
@ Northern Iowa - Win 75/100
vs. Youngstown St. - Win 98/100
vs. Indiana St. - Win 100/100
@ South Dakota - Win 100/100

*I'd say EWU, CSU, ISUb, and USD all should at least have a couple wins out of 100. However, 10-1 or 9-2 are pretty realistic results for the season with a small chance of 11-0 or 8-3.

[KPSUL]

NDSU:

vs. Charleston Southern - Win 100/100
vs. Eastern Wash - Win 100/100
@ Iowa - Win 25/100
vs. Illinois St. - Win 85/100
@ Missouri St. - Win 100/100
vs. South Dakota St. - Win 95/100
@ Western Illinois - Win 98/100
@ Northern Iowa - Win 75/100
vs. Youngstown St. - Win 98/100
vs. Indiana St. - Win 100/100
@ South Dakota - Win 100/100

*I'd say EWU, CSU, ISUb, and USD all should at least have a couple wins out of 100. However, 10-1 or 9-2 are pretty realistic results for the season with a small chance of 11-0 or 8-3.

Based on this model, NDSU has a .58 probability of winning all 10 FCS games. Seems like a good time for you Bison supporters to make your Frisco, TX reservations. (although I'm sure most of you already have!)

[dewey]

Based on this model, NDSU has a .58 probability of winning all 10 FCS games. Seems like a good time for you Bison supporters to make your Frisco, TX reservations. (although I'm sure most of you already have!)

Just waiting for the tickets to go on several my friendxthumbsupx

Dewey

[dewey]

NDSU:

vs. Charleston Southern - Win 100/100
vs. Eastern Wash - Win 100/100
@ Iowa - Win 25/100
vs. Illinois St. - Win 85/100
@ Missouri St. - Win 100/100
vs. South Dakota St. - Win 95/100
@ Western Illinois - Win 98/100
@ Northern Iowa - Win 75/100
vs. Youngstown St. - Win 98/100
vs. Indiana St. - Win 100/100
@ South Dakota - Win 100/100

*I'd say EWU, CSU, ISUb, and USD all should at least have a couple wins out of 100. However, 10-1 or 9-2 are pretty realistic results for the season with a small chance of 11-0 or 8-3.

I agree with you on all of them except USD for the revenge factor. NDSU by a LOT in that game.

Dewey

[Catbooster]

I think you can ask any Southland team fan when an FCS team loses 30 players they just arent the same the next year. We lost our QB the year after we won the conference and dropped like a rock. Like I told you last year, our best chance to beat you was last year. I wasnt joking. Look how that turned out. xlolx
Lots of people seem to be picking the Griz to win the Big Sky but they've got 50 new players this year if what I've read is correct. It seems Stitt wants to get the players for his system in quickly. I would expect them to start a little slowly this fall, but who knows xdontknowx

[BEAR]

Lots of people seem to be picking the Griz to win the Big Sky but they've got 50 new players this year if what I've read is correct. It seems Stitt wants to get the players for his system in quickly. I would expect them to start a little slowly this fall, but who knows xdontknowx

Our coach is starting his third year and he came in late his first year so recruiting was a very quick process as Conque, the coach who left, took most of his staff with him. Fans expect a tough year so we arent setting our sights too high. But with the players the coach brought in THIS year I see good things in the near future.

[ebemiss]

Here are projected win totals for each team based on my current numbers. For non FCS/FBS games (D2, etc..) I used a power ranking that was near the bottom of the FCS teams for those teams.

If for some reason I have the total number of games wrong for a certain team I'll double check them and re-run it. I took the games from ESPN's latest schedule so I'm hoping that is correct. Let me know of any total game errors.

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/index.php?option=com_ffact&ids=183&lang=en

[ST_Lawson]

We're down for essentially a 5-6 record (5.07 to 5.93) on that list. I'm obviously hoping for a couple wins better than that, but it's a valid estimate considering we were 6-5 last year and we don't really know how the new coaching staff is going to work out yet. And that Missouri State bug is fixed too.

Looks like the projected MVFC finish (rounding the win/loss totals when possible):
1. NDSU - 10-1
2. ISUr - 8.5-2.5
3. UNI - 8-2
4. SDSU - 7-4
5. YSU - 7-4
6. SIU - 7-4
7. WIU - 5-6
8. ISUb - 4-7
9. USD - 3-8
10. MSU - 1-9

Personally I think Illinois State should be moved below SDSU in the order...UNI at more like 9-2, ISUr in at 7-4 also. The playoff teams in this case would be NDSU and UNI for sure, then some of the 7-4's depending on who they beat/lose to, and when in the season it is. That's just my personal opinion though.

[clenz]

Man, ISUR is highly valued in that rating after losing something like 95.4% of their total offense from last year.

[Hammersmith]

I didn't see anyone do this yet.

I ran the 100 game simulation for all the MVFC conference games. Nothing was particularly close. I don't think any matchup was lower than 68%. I didn't bother to do OOC games.

8-0 NDSU
7-1 ISUr
7-1 UNI
5-3 SDSU
4-4 YSU
4-4 SIU
3-5 WIU
2-6 ISUb
0-8 MSU
0-8 USD

The ISUr/UNI and MSU/USD ties are impossible to break(they'd come down to GPI). YSU wins the tie breaker with SIU via head to head.