LFN: Six Possible FCS Wins Over FBS Teams, 2016 Edition

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Even though Lehigh isn't taking on any FBS teams this season, it's not too early to take a look at the 2016 college football schedule and look at some of the games that pit FCS teams vs. FBS teams and look for potential upsets.

Recently, Craig Haley over at Stats picked his Top 15 FCS vs. FBS matchups (http://athlonsports.com/college-football/15-best-fbs-vs-fcs-football-games-2016). All around the college football landscape, college football prediction season has begun, analyzing way-too-early Top 25s (http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/14742276/alabama-crimson-tide-moves-top-post-signing-day-way-too-early-top-25), and projecting positional battles in preseason camp.

There's even a preseason ranking based on existing or current corporate sponsorships (http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2016/5/13/11658514/big-12-conference-realignment-memphis-fedex), a blog posting I thankfully don't have to do for the Patriot League. (That's because it's obvious.... everyone knows Lehigh is a Pepsi town, while Lafayette represents a Coke city.)

For the overall world of the FCS, though, leading into the season there are few things more exciting than a Jacksonville State putting The Fear Of The Big Guy Above into Auburn, or Portland State delivering probably the most humiliating upset on FCS over FBS history over North Texas.

So where should we be looking this year?

Read more at http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2016/05/six-possible-fcs-wins-over-fbs-teams.html#Gr6VC8IfU9qhJwom.99

[POD Knows]

Read more at http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2016/05/six-possible-fcs-wins-over-fbs-teams.html#Gr6VC8IfU9qhJwom.99

Hey, the Bison won their 6th FCS Championship. Did I get that hammered that I forgot the whole season??

[UNIFanSince1983]

Bronco Mendenhall just got to UVA this year. So he didn't struggle getting the Cavs going last year...

[BisonTru]

QB Kyle Lauletta and RB Jacobi Green, last seen running through mammoth-sized holes created by the Spiders' offensive line, return.

Jacobi Green is trying out for the Carolina Panthers, and Kyle averaged 8 yards a game. I wouldn't quite call him a running threat.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CicD-CQWwAAOyfd.jpg

[The Yo Show]

Hey, the Bison won their 6th FCS Championship. Did I get that hammered that I forgot the whole season??

They just won their 5th. They are looking to get the 6th this year. (FCS national champs 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015)

[POD Knows]

They just won their 5th. They are looking to get the 6th this year. (FCS national champs 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015)

I clicked on the article right away and it said that they had won 6 FCS titles, that has since been corrected. I was just being a smartass but somebody went in and did the edit.

[TheValleyRaider]

In the past, Syracuse and Colgate were huge rivals like Lehigh/Lafayette, or Harvard/Yale

And we still lead the all-time series :D

[BisonFan02]

They just won their 5th. They are looking to get the 6th this year. (FCS national champs 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015)

They have!?!?! OMG! :D xlolx

[bonarae]

It's hard to predict this kind of list until summer... xchinscratchx

But a pretty good list to be sure...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I clicked on the article right away

It is perfectly OK you did this

[POD Knows]

It is perfectly OK you did this

OK, thanks for the read.

[KPSUL]

100+ FCS vs FBS games and you pick Wagner @ Boston College as one of your six possible FCS wins ? Forget about their offense, BC's defense will score more than enough points to win the game.

[FUBeAR]

Here's an interesting one to think about because of the 'big-picture' logistics and some of the styles associated with the situation.

Mercer plays @ Georgia Tech on Saturday, 9/10

Georgia Tech plays Boston College in Dublin, Ireland on Saturday, September 3rd. Dublin to ATL is a 9.5 hour flight and the time zone is 5 hours ahead of Eastern time. Not sure of their travel plans, but school will be in session and I would imagine they will leave for the game on Wednesday and get back sometime late on Sunday (at best). Regardless - a long trip over, an ACC game, a long late-arriving trip home, and a lot of missed classes. So, an extremely unusual and LONG week of travel with a short week of preparation before 9/10

Mercer plays The Citadel at home on Thursday night 9/1. So a long week of preparation (after a tough and important SoCon game) prior to traveling the short 87 miles from Five Star Stadium to Grant Field.

Mercer has 74,000 living Alumni - a whole slew of those Alumni live in the Atlanta area...and many have NEVER seen their Mercer Bears play a football game. Based on this & GT's home attendance numbers in recent years vs. FCS schools, I would conservatively expect there will be approximately 30k blase, ho-hum GT fans & 15k+ RABID Bears' fans in the stadium - not a 'virtual' home game, but some may recall how that played out fan-wise when Mercer played Duke in basketball in the RDU Triangle area a few years back.

GT runs a run-based option offense. Mercer has played 4 games against similar option Teams in the past 2 years (8 in 3 years if you count Reinhardt's & Carnegie Mellon's wing-T-based option & Berry's GT-style option...4-0, but let's NOT count those) - 2 vs. Woffy and 2 vs. El Cid - they are 0-4 in those games...not good...BUT, Mercer has lost the last 2 years to El Cid by not converting 2-pt XP plays at the end of the game that would have sent both games into OT, most likely AND Mercer lost to Woffy last year on a missed XP in OT. While both Woffy and El Cid hit big plays on 2015 that were the difference in the game, the Bear's 2015 performance against the option was MUCH improved over 2014.

Since Mercer left the field in the last game of the 2015 season, the only offensive style they have needed to think about defending (because El Cid is the 1st game) is a run-based option offense.

Mercer will FINALLY be at full FCS strength scholarship-wise and only lost 1 starter on each side of the ball. With Redshirts, incoming Freshman, and a few Transfers, they could be MUCH improved over 2015.

Improved enough and have enough talent to take down an FBS Team in their 1st outing against that classification? Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think anyone thought they would be improved enough or talented enough in 2015 to beat a Chatt. team that was ranked #3 in FCS at the time and that later took an FCS finalist to OT in the playoffs either. But that's what they did. They may not beat the BumblingBees, but the game is certainly set up to give them a shot at it.

I hope THEY are just thinking about Beating the Bellhops though...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

100+ FCS vs FBS games and you pick Wagner @ Boston College as one of your six possible FCS wins ? Forget about their offense, BC's defense will score more than enough points to win the game.

Read that one again. They're "on the fence" for the same reason URI is.

[Thumper 76]

100+ FCS vs FBS games and you pick Wagner @ Boston College as one of your six possible FCS wins ? Forget about their offense, BC's defense will score more than enough points to win the game.

I thought that at first too, but it seems there is always a team like a Wagner that surprises me in a game like this keeping it close for a while for some reason.

[DFW HOYA]

Read more at http://lehighfootballnation.blogspot.com/2016/05/six-possible-fcs-wins-over-fbs-teams.html#Gr6VC8IfU9qhJwom.99


If "Lehigh is a Pepsi town, while Lafayette represents a Coke city", who's the sponsor at Bucknell?

[RichH2]

Enjoyable read. The picks make as much sense as any others. Any Ws by FCS are going to be upsets. Fun to speculate.:)

[The Yo Show]

Hey, the Bison won their 6th FCS Championship. Did I get that hammered that I forgot the whole season??
Ah gotcha. I figured that's what you were doing (and it would have been funny if I had read the version that had originally said 6th, but it said 5th when I looked xdrunkyx)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Syracuse has some good athletes. Dino Babers will have the 'Cuse ranked within 3 years. Colgate will be good this year but the Orange will win going away....

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

100+ FCS vs FBS games and you pick Wagner @ Boston College as one of your six possible FCS wins ? Forget about their offense, BC's defense will score more than enough points to win the game.

I can't see Wagner holding up to BC physically. The Eagles record stunk last year but they were a tough out most games. Their offense just sucks.....

[Gangtackle11]

I doubt Wagner will be in the game past halftime. I watched them a couple years ago just get obliterated by a mediocre Syracuse team 54-0. BC may not put up 54, but then again......

[jimbo65]

IMO, Fordham v Navy is a much better selection than Wagner over BC.

[Lehigh'98]

If "Lehigh is a Pepsi town, while Lafayette represents a Coke city", who's the sponsor at Bucknell?

Mr. Pibb?

[Lehigh'98]

Wagner will get absolutely buried by BC, don't care how bad BC has been. Not worth mentioning.

[RichH2]

IMO, Fordham v Navy is a much better selection than Wagner over BC.


Probably so. Big if is Ram D. Must be more than marginally better than last year to have any shot at upset.:)

[NY Crusader 2010]

Probably so. Big if is Ram D. Must be more than marginally better than last year to have any shot at upset.:) Exactly. I'm actually going to this game with family (late grandfather was USNA '51). Navy is more than likely going to score six touchdowns without breaking a sweat. Yea I know Keenan Reynolds graduated, but how many times over the last 15 years have the Mids reloaded at QB going back to Craig Candeto? Fordham's offense could be up to the task of a shootout but their D will need to be exponentially improved. Expect the Rams to be top three in the PL with 'Gate and Lehigh (HC will be right there too IMO).

[NY Crusader 2010]

Wagner will get absolutely buried by BC, don't care how bad BC has been. Not worth mentioning.

While acknowledging that I owe the program respect for beating my Crusaders and also becoming the only NEC team to beat a PL team in the playoffs back in 2012, I don't even know why Wagner-BC is even mentioned as a potential upset. Didn't Wagner fall behind an OK BYU team 35-0 in the first quarter last year? And BC beat their FCS opponent Howard 76-0.

I'm hoping the Eagles absolutely destroy Wagner and their 2017 FCS opponent and then proceed overlook their FCS game in 2018. Whoever that may be....

- - - Updated - - -


Wagner will get absolutely buried by BC, don't care how bad BC has been. Not worth mentioning.

While acknowledging that I owe the program respect for beating my Crusaders and also becoming the only NEC team to beat a PL team in the playoffs back in 2012, I don't even know why Wagner-BC is even mentioned as a potential upset. Didn't Wagner fall behind an OK BYU team 35-0 in the first quarter last year? And BC beat their FCS opponent Howard 76-0.

I'm hoping the Eagles absolutely destroy Wagner and their 2017 FCS opponent and then proceed overlook their FCS game in 2018. Whoever that may be....

[KPSUL]

I thought that at first too, but it seems there is always a team like a Wagner that surprises me in a game like this keeping it close for a while for some reason.

Anything is possible, but out of all the 2016 FCS/FBS games, I wouldn't highlight it as one of my top 6 picks; on or off the fence. Maine kept it relatively close to BC last season, 24-3; but BC beat Howard 76-0. Maine has been the BCS equivalent to BC for several seasons, strong defense combined with a lack of offense. Maine has a history of having excellent linemen on both sides of the ball. But Wagner is probably closer to Howard than Maine.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think the critical thing here is whether BC is "horrible" or simply "bad"

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Exactly. I'm actually going to this game with family (late grandfather was USNA '51). Navy is more than likely going to score six touchdowns without breaking a sweat. Yea I know Keenan Reynolds graduated, but how many times over the last 15 years have the Mids reloaded at QB going back to Craig Candeto? Fordham's offense could be up to the task of a shootout but their D will need to be exponentially improved. Expect the Rams to be top three in the PL with 'Gate and Lehigh (HC will be right there too IMO).

I agree with this. If Niumatalolo had left along with the graduation losses then perhaps Navy would be vulnerable. As it, I fully expect them to continue their winning ways this year. Fordham might be able to put some points on the board but I doubt they come within 24 points in Annapolis. Lehigh will get their butts handed to them in two years down there.

While I know the PL fans like the games against Navy because of the league association I think they're a brutal matchup. Personally, I would have liked Lehigh to go in another direction for their first FBS game in over a decade. Even big time P5 programs dread facing the Middies.

[RichH2]

Too pessimistic owl. A win would be an upset for sure. But not a shattering one. We all recruit the same kids now. Difference is depth and Navy's funky offense :). IIR Bucknell gave them a helluva game recently.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Too pessimistic owl. A win would be an upset for sure. But not a shattering one. We all recruit the same kids now. Difference is depth and Navy's funky offense :). IIR Bucknell gave them a helluva game recently.

It would take one helluva FCS team to beat Navy most years. While Lehigh might be able to compete in two years the odds of them winning are very, very small imo. And I'm of the belief that Lehigh is about to go on 3-4 year run of success again.

Navy hasn't lost to a FCS team since 2003. Eventual national champ Delaware took them out 21-17. That was Johnson's second year in Annapolis and that Blue Hen team is often regarded as one of the best in 1AA/FCS history. If Lehigh has a Top 10 team in 2018 they have a shot to compete. GSU was the last FCS team to come close to beating them. That was in 2010....

[Lehigh'98]

Navy is good and if you don't know how to stop their running game, you won't have a chance as an FCS team. I think they beat NDSU by 14.

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

Navy is good and if you don't know how to stop their running game, you won't have a chance as an FCS team. I think they beat NDSU by 14.

I think NDSU would stop them. Not because I think that they're that awesome but that they've proven better than anyone (at least in my mind) they can handle the offense. They've defended us better just about every team we played (I'm not counting 2006 here), and that includes Nick Saban and Georgia and Florida and Auburn.

Some people will scoff, but the two teams we brought to Fargo had more talent than most Navy teams. Our 2011 team had an FCS all-American fullback, two third-round draft picks at slotback and two more who were all-SoCon, an OL full of guys who were either all-SoCon and All-American at some time in their career, and a good corps of receivers for an option team.

Yes, I know we got curb stomped by Navy two years ago but we also got curb stomped by a significantly less talented Georgia State team last year (ugh) so there's that...

BTW, we lost by 3 points in 2010 to a Navy team that went to a bowl. This was in our second game after hiring Jeff Monken and we were still trying to break the triple option offense back in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I agree with folks on here - Fordham is still a good team that is in the conversation for the Patriot League title, but a win over a relatively powerful Navy team seems like a tall order. If it were Fordham vs. Syracuse or Fordham vs. BC I'd be much more bullish on their chances of an upset.

Where Navy would fit in the FCS Top 25 is an interesting thought experiment, but I think they'd be No. 1 over NDSU this year.

[thebootfitter]

Where Navy would fit in the FCS Top 25 is an interesting thought experiment, but I think they'd be No. 1 over NDSU this year.
You might be onto something. Sagarin has Navy as roughly 2-pt favorites on a neutral field over NDSU at the end of last year. http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

I'd put my money on NDSU straight up, but it would be a heckuva game for sure.

[melloware13]

It would take one helluva FCS team to beat Navy most years. While Lehigh might be able to compete in two years the odds of them winning are very, very small imo. And I'm of the belief that Lehigh is about to go on 3-4 year run of success again.

Navy hasn't lost to a FCS team since 2003. Eventual national champ Delaware took them out 21-17. That was Johnson's second year in Annapolis and that Blue Hen team is often regarded as one of the best in 1AA/FCS history. If Lehigh has a Top 10 team in 2018 they have a shot to compete. GSU was the last FCS team to come close to beating them. That was in 2010....
2007 Delaware won 59-52

[UNIFanSince1983]

Navy has a huge hole at QB this year. I doubt the new guy is going to step in and be as good as Keenan Reynolds. I mean he set so many records. I think obviously Navy takes a step back this year.

[catamount man]

Western Carolina plays at both East Carolina and South Carolina. WCU is 0-fer against FBS teams since the I-A/I-AA split. We WILL get one of these teams this year. We are due. GO CATS!!!