Gridiron Power Index for Nov 15, 2015

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151117gpi.html



Rank
Team
Conf
W-L
Rating
ARC
LAZ
ASH
SEL
MAS
KEE
SAG
BRN
FCP
STAT


1
N Dakota St
MVFC
8-2
1.57
6
1
2
4
1
1
1
1
3
2


2
Jacksonville St
OVC
9-1
2.86
18
3
4
1
3
4
4
5
1
1


3
Illinois St
MVFC
8-2
3.14
10
2
1
2
2
2
2
3
6
6


4
S Dakota St
MVFC
8-2
3.86
17
4
3
3
4
3
3
4
5
5


5
William & Mary
CAA
8-2
8.00
42
8
11
7
9
11
7
7
7
7


6
McNeese St
SLC
9-0
8.43
54
13
13
8
10
6
10
13
2
3


7
Northern Iowa
MVFC
6-4
9.43
36
15
7
9
7
8
5
2
15
15


8T
Portland St
BSC
8-2
10.43
51
9
8
11
12
5
12
11
11
11


8T
Coastal Car
BSo
9-1
10.43
65
10
12
13
16
23
14
10
4
4


10
James Madison
CAA
8-2
10.57
52
7
9
12
17
10
9
12
10
12


11
Harvard
Ivy
8-1
11.43
40
6
6
6
6
9
13
16
21
19


12
Dartmouth
Ivy
8-1
11.71
38
5
5
5
5
7
16
25
23
21


13
Charleston So
BSo
9-1
11.86
66
11
10
10
11
13
21
21
8
9


14
Chattanooga
SC
8-2
12.57
71
14
15
15
13
14
8
20
9
8


15
Southern Utah
BSC
7-3
13.71
58
17
16
16
8
12
6
6
18
20


16
Penn
Ivy
6-3
19.00
81
16
14
14
14
15
35
22
26
26


17
Youngstown St
MVFC
5-5
19.57
85
19
20
19
18
18
11
8
26
26


18T
Fordham
PL
9-2
20.00
113
12
19
21
20
19
34
43
14
13


18T
Sam Houston St
SLC
7-3
20.00
118
26
35
34
26
17
15
9
12
10


20
Richmond
CAA
7-3
20.14
111
20
22
23
24
20
22
31
16
14


21
W Illinois
MVFC
5-5
20.57
92
22
18
17
15
16
19
24
26
26


22
Citadel
SC
7-3
20.71
96
18
17
18
19
24
17
29
24
25


23
Montana
BSC
6-4
22.29
122
28
29
26
27
21
20
18
17
17


24
Villanova
CAA
6-4
25.00
123
24
23
22
21
31
23
35
26
26


25
NC A&T
MEAC
9-1
25.14
147
21
21
20
37
39
29
42
13
16


26
W Carolina
SC
6-4
25.57
127
25
24
25
23
34
26
27
26
26


27
Northern Arizona
BSC
7-3
25.71
136
29
34
32
25
22
28
15
20
24


28
South Dakota
MVFC
5-5
26.71
135
37
28
28
22
27
30
17
26
26


29
Towson
CAA
6-4
28.86
150
27
27
24
31
29
37
36
26
26


30
E Illinois
OVC
6-4
29.43
154
31
30
31
30
35
32
26
26
26


31
E Washington
BSC
6-4
29.86
172
39
32
33
29
25
39
51
19
18


32
TN Martin
OVC
6-4
30.00
158
32
31
30
33
32
36
30
26
26


33
Yale
Ivy
6-3
30.14
159
30
25
27
28
26
48
49
26
26


34T
E Kentucky
OVC
6-4
32.00
175
33
37
37
36
38
27
32
26
23


34T
Cent Arkansas
SLC
7-3
32.00
173
34
38
44
40
30
31
23
26
25


36
S Illinois
MVFC
3-7
32.43
175
43
42
40
32
46
18
14
26
26


37
Cal Poly SLO
BSC
4-6
33.71
184
51
45
45
34
36
24
19
26
26


38
Indiana St
MVFC
4-6
34.86
192
42
40
38
35
41
38
33
26
26


39
Dayton
PFL
10-0
36.00
200
23
26
29
46
28
71
84
26
26


40
New Hampshire
CAA
6-4
36.14
201
38
39
41
43
43
40
38
26
26


41
Montana St
BSC
5-5
36.43
203
45
51
49
39
42
25
28
26
26


42
North Dakota
BSC
6-4
36.86
206
41
44
42
44
33
42
37
26
26


43
Weber St
BSC
5-5
37.00
207
47
43
39
38
37
43
44
26
26


44T
Princeton
Ivy
5-4
37.29
209
36
36
35
41
45
51
53
26
26


44T
Colgate
PL
6-4
37.29
209
35
33
36
42
40
56
72
26
26


46
Samford
SC
5-5
40.00
228
49
48
46
45
56
33
40
26
26


47
Liberty
BSo
5-5
42.57
246
54
50
53
47
51
45
41
26
26


48T
Wofford
SC
4-6
43.14
250
53
49
48
49
52
41
52
26
26


48T
Holy Cross
PL
5-5
43.14
250
46
47
50
51
62
52
50
26
26


50
Lehigh
PL
5-5
43.43
252
52
41
43
48
47
62
80
26
26

[citdog]

DAMN! I thought last week was BAD...

[Milktruck74]

3 IVYs in the top 25? Next thing you know they will be putting MEAC teams in there...oh, wait, nevermind.

[deez_na]

4 MVC in the top 7 :)

[Nova09]

This basically confirms what I was already confident of--Villanova in with win. 3 Ivy, Ytown, and WIU don't matter for at large purposes, so even if a win only holds place (unlikely we wouldn't move up with a win over current 10) we would be 19 with 7 autos ahead of us, making us the 12th at-large selected.

While I wouldn't be overly confident on that alone, IF we win I can't imagine we don't at least jump Montana (regardless if they win) and Citadel (assuming they lose), as well as a few others we could jump like Richmond, SHSU, SUU.

But of course it is all irrelevant if we don't win. Here's hoping our backup QB outperforms their backup QB!

[centennial]

INB4 JSU fans whining about NDSU.

[dystopiamembrane]

AGS voters are the only ones who know how to rank FCS football.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Literally the only reason Jacksonville State is No. 2 is due to the human polls.

[dbackjon]

More garbage

[deez_na]

More garbage

What's the garbage?

[F'N Hawks]

What's the garbage?

Southern Illinois and The Ivies. Also, there is no metric, comparison, standings or human being in the world that could justify Montana State being ahead of UND but they are. Only one spot, but they are. I am sure there are more but that is what I looked at.

Is it a huge deal - no. But it shows what the possible flaws are since it's obviously missing something.

[mamberso]

INB4 JSU fans whining about NDSU.

Doesn't matter to me. The only poll I care about is the one at the end of the season. Respect is earned in the postseason. It's the nice thing about the FCS, you earn it on the field.

[BisonFan02]

Doesn't matter to me. The only poll I care about is the one at the end of the season. Respect is earned in the postseason. It's the nice thing about the FCS, you earn it on the field.

Yup....and the whole #1 and #2 seed thing really doesn't matter....I'm banking on hopefully my Bison are #2 while two other MVFC schools are #4 and #5....wouldn't hurt my feelings. xlolx

[OhioHen]

Yup....and the whole #1 and #2 seed thing really doesn't matter....I'm banking on hopefully my Bison are #2 while two other MVFC schools are #4 and #5....wouldn't hurt my feelings. xlolx

But those 4/5 teams become 3/6 with regionalization, so the Bison would still have to run the gauntlet.

[BisonFan02]

But those 4/5 teams become 3/6 with regionalization, so the Bison would still have to run the gauntlet.

Depends on how much the playoff teams have shifted west....there might be other options versus previous years. SDSU is the only wild card there and ISUr was on the other side last season.

[dystopiamembrane]

...there is no metric...in the world that could justify Montana State being ahead of UND...This rating system uses metrics.
In fact, four of the metrics-based rankings used as factors in this rating system rank MSU ahead of UND.
Do you and I have a different definition for the word?

[dbackjon]

What's the garbage?


CCU 5 spots ahead of CSU
Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, in top 20


Among the garbage

[F'N Hawks]

This rating system uses metrics.
In fact, four of the metrics-based rankings used as factors in this rating system rank MSU ahead of UND.
Do you and I have a different definition for the word?

Guess I used metrics loosely meaning how could any group of factors possibly have MSU ahead of UND? Not head to head, not record, not better wins... MSU's resume is horrible. My point was these numbers that compile the GPI don't make sense in some cases. There must be elements that aren't factored in?

[dystopiamembrane]

Guess I used metrics loosely meaning how could any group of factors possibly have MSU ahead of UND? Not head to head, not record, not better wins... MSU's resume is horrible. My point was these numbers that compile the GPI don't make sense in some cases. There must be elements that aren't factored in? Or, perhaps, they are factoring in elements that you are not.

[F'N Hawks]

Or, perhaps, they are factoring in elements that you are not.

Could be. Example?

[dystopiamembrane]

Could be. Example?Massey's system is one that ranked MSU above UND.

"Game Outcome Function (GOF)

Given the score of a game, GOF(pA,pB) assigns a number between 0 and 1 that estimates the probability that team A would win a rematch under the same conditions. Based on previous experience, it seems reasonable to distinguish between a 10-0 win and a 50-40 win. A close high scoring game is likely to have more variance, and less likely to be dominated by either team. While a low scoring game may indicate a defensive struggle, or poor game conditions. In which case, a small deficit is more difficult to overcome. Sample GOF values are listed below:


A's points (pA)
B's points (pB)
GOF(pA,pB)


30
29
0.5270


10
9
0.5359


27
24
0.5836


27
20
0.6924


50
40
0.7292


10
0
0.8548


30
14
0.8786


45
21
0.9433


45
14
0.9823


30
0
0.9920


56
3
0.9998


Each game score is plugged into a GOF that outputs the estimated probability that team A would win if the game were played again under the same conditions. This is independent of any other information since it involves only that one game in isolation. For example, it may be determined that the winner in a 30-14 game has a 88% chance of winning a rematch, while a 27-24 winner only has a 58% of winning again.
Notice that a diminishing returns principle is manifested in this GOF. There is some advantage to winning "comfortably," but limited benefit to running up the score. A team will not be penalized just for playing a weak opponent (although it becomes much harder to improve its rating by blowing someone out).

Calculate Ratings


Each team's gametime performance is assumed to be normally distributed about a certain mean (its rating). The probability that team A would defeat team B is then determined from the cumulative distribution function (CDF) associated with a normal random variable.

Let p = Prob(A beats B) = F(rA,rB,hA,hB), where rA,hA and rB,hB are ratings and home advantages of teams A and B respectively. F is a function of rA,rB,hA,hB that is based on the CDF of a normal random variable.

All the game scores are translated to a scale from 0 to 1 by the GOF. Let g = GOF(pA,pB), where pA and pB are the points actually scored by teams A and B in a particular game.

A nonlinear function of the teams' ratings is formed by multiplying terms that look like:

p^g * (1-p)^(1-g)

Here ^ denotes an exponent. Also note that 0 <= p,g <= 1. By maximizing the resulting function, maximum liklihood estimates (MLE) are obtained for the ratings and home advantages. The optimization problem may be solved with standard techniques such as Newton's method.

Preseason ratings may be implemented via prior distribution factors in the optimization function. Their importance diminishes as the season progresses, and they are negligable by the end of the year. A strong prior distribution must be used to compensate for lack of enough single season data for the home advantages.

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w."


Massey Rating Description (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm)

[BisonTru]

CCU 5 spots ahead of CSU
Harvard, Penn, Dartmouth, in top 20


Among the garbage

Agreed on CCU/CSU, 4 of the computers have CSU above CCU. It's those damn human polls that screw it up.

[kalm]

Massey's system is one that ranked MSU above UND.

"Game Outcome Function (GOF)

Given the score of a game, GOF(pA,pB) assigns a number between 0 and 1 that estimates the probability that team A would win a rematch under the same conditions. Based on previous experience, it seems reasonable to distinguish between a 10-0 win and a 50-40 win. A close high scoring game is likely to have more variance, and less likely to be dominated by either team. While a low scoring game may indicate a defensive struggle, or poor game conditions. In which case, a small deficit is more difficult to overcome. Sample GOF values are listed below:


A's points (pA)
B's points (pB)
GOF(pA,pB)


30
29
0.5270


10
9
0.5359


27
24
0.5836


27
20
0.6924


50
40
0.7292


10
0
0.8548


30
14
0.8786


45
21
0.9433


45
14
0.9823


30
0
0.9920


56
3
0.9998


Each game score is plugged into a GOF that outputs the estimated probability that team A would win if the game were played again under the same conditions. This is independent of any other information since it involves only that one game in isolation. For example, it may be determined that the winner in a 30-14 game has a 88% chance of winning a rematch, while a 27-24 winner only has a 58% of winning again.
Notice that a diminishing returns principle is manifested in this GOF. There is some advantage to winning "comfortably," but limited benefit to running up the score. A team will not be penalized just for playing a weak opponent (although it becomes much harder to improve its rating by blowing someone out).

Calculate Ratings


Each team's gametime performance is assumed to be normally distributed about a certain mean (its rating). The probability that team A would defeat team B is then determined from the cumulative distribution function (CDF) associated with a normal random variable.

Let p = Prob(A beats B) = F(rA,rB,hA,hB), where rA,hA and rB,hB are ratings and home advantages of teams A and B respectively. F is a function of rA,rB,hA,hB that is based on the CDF of a normal random variable.

All the game scores are translated to a scale from 0 to 1 by the GOF. Let g = GOF(pA,pB), where pA and pB are the points actually scored by teams A and B in a particular game.

A nonlinear function of the teams' ratings is formed by multiplying terms that look like:

p^g * (1-p)^(1-g)

Here ^ denotes an exponent. Also note that 0 <= p,g <= 1. By maximizing the resulting function, maximum liklihood estimates (MLE) are obtained for the ratings and home advantages. The optimization problem may be solved with standard techniques such as Newton's method.

Preseason ratings may be implemented via prior distribution factors in the optimization function. Their importance diminishes as the season progresses, and they are negligable by the end of the year. A strong prior distribution must be used to compensate for lack of enough single season data for the home advantages.

Time weighting is a debatable practice, however I believe that more recent games are generally better indications of a team's true strength. An exponential decay based time weighting is applied by premultiplying g by some weight w."


Massey Rating Description (http://masseyratings.com/theory/massey.htm)

can you break this down to explain how it's still bad?

[rokamortis]

Agreed on CCU/CSU, 4 of the computers have CSU above CCU. It's those damn human polls that screw it up.

CSU has a worse loss (Troy) than Coastal (CSU), CSU has played a worse team (ETSU) than anyone on Coastal's schedule, Coastal has a slightly better win (WIU) than CSU's best win (Coastal). CSU also has a DII win. Coastal has more DI wins than CSU.

This is according to Massey's ratings records. So it isn't hard too hard to see how someone could rank Coastal over CSU.

[dystopiamembrane]

can you break this down to explain how it's still bad?Can I break it down?
Nope, I let the maths fellows handle it.

And, how what is still bad?

[BisonTru]

CSU has a worse loss (Troy) than Coastal (CSU), CSU has played a worse team (ETSU) than anyone on Coastal's schedule, Coastal has a slightly better win (WIU) than CSU's best win (Coastal). CSU also has a DII win. Coastal has more DI wins than CSU.

This is according to Massey's ratings records. So it isn't hard too hard to see how someone could rank Coastal over CSU.

Trump card: Head to Head. BTW, Massey agrees with me.

[rokamortis]

Trump card: Head to Head. BTW, Massey agrees with me.

But head to head isn't the end all be all. If it were than SD and MT would be rated above NDSU.


I'm not saying it has to be one way or the other, I'm not that closed minded. I'm just saying that you can make a solid argument based on all of the various factors.

I like Massey for the most part but he also does some squirrelly things - like treating the Ivey like the MVFC.

Also, we have another week of football so hopefully Massey's ratings come to their senses after this week.

[dbackjon]

CSU has a worse loss (Troy) than Coastal (CSU), CSU has played a worse team (ETSU) than anyone on Coastal's schedule, Coastal has a slightly better win (WIU) than CSU's best win (Coastal). CSU also has a DII win. Coastal has more DI wins than CSU.

This is according to Massey's ratings records. So it isn't hard too hard to see how someone could rank Coastal over CSU.

head to head, when other things are close, should be the trump card.

I would disagree that a FBS loss should be a negative.

CCU >> WIU, so CSU has the better win.

[rokamortis]

head to head, when other things are close, should be the trump card.

I would disagree that a FBS loss should be a negative.

CCU >> WIU, so CSU has the better win.

2 FBS losses are a negative, no way around it.

Also, according to Massey as stated - WIU is 112 and Coastal is 113. So Coastal has the better win.

[Bisonwinagn]

2 FBS losses are a negative, no way around it.

Also, according to Massey as stated - WIU is 112 and Coastal is 113. So Coastal has the better win.

FBS losses are basically ignored and not factored in. A win is helpful, but losses have no impact at all.

[rokamortis]

FBS losses are basically ignored and not factored in. A win is helpful, but losses have no impact at all.

I'm going to have to stop repeating myself - if you guys don't want to believe it then there is no helping you. FBS losses do hurt, because they are still losses. The committee looks at won / loss record before anything else. So if you have a 10 win team vs an 8 win team, it does matter. They will look at SOS, but they aren't going to give bonus credit in regard to wins for playing and losing to an FBS school.

So semantically however you want to consider it, an FBS loss, a non-DI win, whatever ... it isn't ignored and does hurt.

Look at the NCAA's SRS, an FCS road loss counts as -.75 points. An FBS road loss counts as -.65 points. So it doesn't count as bad but it still counts.

FCS home wins count as .75 but a DII home win counts as .65. So like others have stated, DII wins count, but not as good.

So apply the same theory to FBS losses ... they count but not as bad as an FCS loss. But it is still a loss.

[BisonTru]

I'm going to have to stop repeating myself - if you guys don't want to believe it then there is no helping you. FBS losses do hurt, because they are still losses. The committee looks at won / loss record before anything else. So if you have a 10 win team vs an 8 win team, it does matter. They will look at SOS, but they aren't going to give bonus credit in regard to wins for playing and losing to an FBS school.

So semantically however you want to consider it, an FBS loss, a non-DI win, whatever ... it isn't ignored and does hurt.

Look at the NCAA's SRS, an FCS road loss counts as -.75 points. An FBS road loss counts as -.65 points. So it doesn't count as bad but it still counts.

FCS home wins count as .75 but a DII home win counts as .65. So like others have stated, DII wins count, but not as good.

So apply the same theory to FBS losses ... they count but not as bad as an FCS loss. But it is still a loss.

Before you get too excited about the SRS, below is how the teams were ranked last year as well as the SRS. The committee is far from a disciple of the SRS, rightfully so. CCU's schedule is damn near perfect for the SRS, but the committee digs through this stuff further. Just because you have more D1 wins doesn't automatically give you the nod. When I look at both teams without the game played against each other, I see two fairly equal teams with wildly different OOC schedules. When you add in the head to head, the scale tips convincingly into CSU's favor.

1. New Hampshire
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St.
4. Eastern Wash
5. Illinois St
6. Villanova
7. Coastal Carolina
8. Chattanooga



1
North_Dakota_St.
(11-1)
1.94


2
Jacksonville_St.
(10-1)
1.73


3
Coastal_Caro.
(11-1)
1.66


4
Illinois_St.
(10-1)
1.65


5
Harvard
(10-0)
1.58


6
New_Hampshire
(10-1)
1.56


7
Eastern_Wash.
(10-2)
1.48


8
Villanova
(10-2)
1.33


9
Chattanooga
(9-3)
1.13

[jsualumnus]

Still waiting for whining JSU fans to show up...

Go Cocks!

[ursus arctos horribilis]

CSU has a worse loss (Troy) than Coastal (CSU), CSU has played a worse team (ETSU) than anyone on Coastal's schedule, Coastal has a slightly better win (WIU) than CSU's best win (Coastal). CSU also has a DII win. Coastal has more DI wins than CSU.

This is according to Massey's ratings records. So it isn't hard too hard to see how someone could rank Coastal over CSU.

How can CSU's best win not be better than CCU's? CSU beat the team that beat WIU got beat by.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I'm going to have to stop repeating myself - if you guys don't want to believe it then there is no helping you. FBS losses do hurt, because they are still losses. The committee looks at won / loss record before anything else. So if you have a 10 win team vs an 8 win team, it does matter. They will look at SOS, but they aren't going to give bonus credit in regard to wins for playing and losing to an FBS school.

So semantically however you want to consider it, an FBS loss, a non-DI win, whatever ... it isn't ignored and does hurt.

Look at the NCAA's SRS, an FCS road loss counts as -.75 points. An FBS road loss counts as -.65 points. So it doesn't count as bad but it still counts.

FCS home wins count as .75 but a DII home win counts as .65. So like others have stated, DII wins count, but not as good.

So apply the same theory to FBS losses ... they count but not as bad as an FCS loss. But it is still a loss.

I can tell you that I know the former head of the selection committee and in an interview we did with him last year and in other conversations he has said in no uncertain terms that FBS losses do not go against a team. If you feel like going and listening to it then it would be in archives and I can find it for you.

[rokamortis]

How can CSU's best win not be better than CCU's? CSU beat the team that beat WIU got beat by.
Transitive property? Come on Ursus!

[rokamortis]

Before you get too excited about the SRS, below is how the teams were ranked last year as well as the SRS. The committee is far from a disciple of the SRS, rightfully so. CCU's schedule is damn near perfect for the SRS, but the committee digs through this stuff further. Just because you have more D1 wins doesn't automatically give you the nod. When I look at both teams without the game played against each other, I see two fairly equal teams with wildly different OOC schedules. When you add in the head to head, the scale tips convincingly into CSU's favor.

1. New Hampshire
2. North Dakota St
3. Jacksonville St.
4. Eastern Wash
5. Illinois St
6. Villanova
7. Coastal Carolina
8. Chattanooga



1
North_Dakota_St.
(11-1)
1.94


2
Jacksonville_St.
(10-1)
1.73


3
Coastal_Caro.
(11-1)
1.66


4
Illinois_St.
(10-1)
1.65


5
Harvard
(10-0)
1.58


6
New_Hampshire
(10-1)
1.56


7
Eastern_Wash.
(10-2)
1.48


8
Villanova
(10-2)
1.33


9
Chattanooga
(9-3)
1.13



I'm not hanging my hat on the SRS, but it is something that is considered. I've already acknowledged that the committee will do what they feel is best, I've just provided many other factors that they will also consider than just head to head that you feel is going to be the primary factor. Anymore discussion is just going to be echoing the same argument back and forth. So I'm happy just to wait for Sunday and see what the committee decides to do.

- - - Updated - - -


I can tell you that I know the former head of the selection committee and in an interview we did with him last year and in other conversations he has said in no uncertain terms that FBS losses do not go against a team. If you feel like going and listening to it then it would be in archives and I can find it for you.

Thanks for the offer but I'm good.

[CID1990]

This basically confirms what I was already confident of--Villanova in with win. 3 Ivy, Ytown, and WIU don't matter for at large purposes, so even if a win only holds place (unlikely we wouldn't move up with a win over current 10) we would be 19 with 7 autos ahead of us, making us the 12th at-large selected.

While I wouldn't be overly confident on that alone, IF we win I can't imagine we don't at least jump Montana (regardless if they win) and Citadel (assuming they lose), as well as a few others we could jump like Richmond, SHSU, SUU.

But of course it is all irrelevant if we don't win. Here's hoping our backup QB outperforms their backup QB!

I think the losses to Penn and Towson keep VU behind The Citadel in the at large race.

[JaxSinfonian]

Still waiting for whining JSU fans to show up...

Go Cocks!

I wish at least one of our home games this season had kicked off later than 1 p.m. My tailgating routine was really hampered.

How's that?

Oh, and I'm fine with whatever the GPI says. There's enough variety in the human polls and computer rankings that anyone can use the system of their choice to make whatever case they want. The Gamecocks have done everything in their power (except beat Auburn) to be a strong candidate for a 1 or 2 seed. After Saturday, it's all up to the committee. If the committee seeds them lower, that just increases the chances that I'll get to make a cool trip somewhere in December.


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[kalm]

Can I break it down?
Nope, I let the maths fellows handle it.

And, how what is still bad?

So you don't understand it but defend it?

The GPI has glaringly bad deficiencies.

[Nova09]

I think the losses to Penn and Towson keep VU behind The Citadel in the at large race.

There is a zero percent chance that if one spot was left for Nova or Citadel both at 7-4, they would choose zero bad losses and zero good wins over zero bad losses and 3 top 25 wins.

But I don't think either would be left out in that scenario anyway.

[dystopiamembrane]

So you don't understand it but defend it?I am not defending anything, kalm.

[bluehenbillk]

Thanks for something to wipe myself with...

[kalm]

I am not defending anything, kalm.

My bad then. xthumbsupx

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Transitive property? Come on Ursus!

Well, not really. I mean it is in one way sure but it is also true that CCU is ranked higher in most polls and guages of what a good win aren't they? That is sort of the main thing although I was trying to have some fun with awkward wording in the last reply.

[Lehigh'98]

AGS voters are the only ones who know how to rank FCS football.


Is this a sarcastic quote or do you mean it? That was a nice illustration of some of the math involved as well in another post.

[dystopiamembrane]

Is this a sarcastic quote or do you mean it?Tongue in cheek

[FCSwatcher]

But head to head isn't the end all be all. If it were than SD and MT would be rated above NDSU.


I'm not saying it has to be one way or the other, I'm not that closed minded. I'm just saying that you can make a solid argument based on all of the various factors.

I like Massey for the most part but he also does some squirrelly things - like treating the Ivey like the MVFC.

Also, we have another week of football so hopefully Massey's ratings come to their senses after this week.

The ivy is what is because of the lack of outside games being played, almost a closed environment


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[TypicalTribe]

Let's not forget that Towson will likely finish 7-4 and has an outside shot at an at-large and Penn just knocked off Harvard and will likely finished tied for the Ivy League title. Personally, I think the Citadel should be in and Villanova should be a lock with a win today.