Playoffs 'Til I Die: Projecting the Playoff Field, 11/17/2015

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/968-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-17-2015

All I really have to say is: dear Lord was this tough to pick. Still not totally pleased with the regionalization I chose, but then again I have seven bubble spots and 11 games to determine the field.

[grizband]

If North Dakota and Montana both win,I think Montana has the edge for an at large bid, based on head to head results.

[RedFlash]

One correction:

"Though the Dukes could qualify for the 7/6 D-I win club, I don't think they would have enough to make it over the other conferences."

If SFU defeats Duquesne, the Dukes will have only 5 D-1 wins (Bucknell, CCSU, Robert Morris, Wagner, and Sacred Heart.) Their other two wins were against D-II opponents Kentucky Christian and Alderson Broaddus - unless those somehow count.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

One correction:

"Though the Dukes could qualify for the 7/6 D-I win club, I don't think they would have enough to make it over the other conferences."

If SFU defeats Duquesne, the Dukes will have only 5 D-1 wins (Bucknell, CCSU, Robert Morris, Wagner, and Sacred Heart.) Their other two wins were against D-II opponents Kentucky Christian and Alderson Broaddus - unless those somehow count.

Thanks - must have missed Alderson Broaddus when I looked at their schedule. I thought they only had one.

[Nodak78]

If North Dakota and Montana both win,I think Montana has the edge for an at large bid, based on head to head results.

The WL formula would only give you 2.75 if you beat MSU. If UND beats Cal Poly our WL formula would be 3.35 I think you have a better SOS. It would leave a big question mark.

[FargoBison]

You must be living in a regionalizaton free world....

[thebootfitter]

Even with computer models and history on their side, I can't see two MVFC teams seeded #1 and #2. Perhaps if McNeese had dropped a game against their schedule, they'd be punished for it. But an undefeated team -- even with a weak schedule -- will be seeded higher than 6, methinks. And a one-loss team that took a P5 team to overtime? I'd be very surprised if Jax St and McNeese are anything but 1-2 (assuming they win out).

[grizband]

The WL formula would only give you 2.75 if you beat MSU. If UND beats Cal Poly our WL formula would be 3.35 I think you have a better SOS. It would leave a big question mark.
Sos and head to head would come into play,I think.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Even with computer models and history on their side, I can't see two MVFC teams seeded #1 and #2. Perhaps if McNeese had dropped a game against their schedule, they'd be punished for it. But an undefeated team -- even with a weak schedule -- will be seeded higher than 6, methinks. And a one-loss team that took a P5 team to overtime? I'd be very surprised if Jax St and McNeese are anything but 1-2 (assuming they win out).

A very significant number of computer rankings have NDSU and Illinois State at some combination of 1 and 2.

[Mattymc727]

Wouldnt it make sense to have Coastal play the Citadel and Colgate with UNH for regionalization reasons? If UNH makes it, they would play Colgate, Fordham, or the NEC winner that first weekend.

[thebootfitter]

A very significant number of computer rankings have NDSU and Illinois State at some combination of 1 and 2.
I understand and appreciate that. Maybe you are weighting your predictions of the playoff field and seeding against computer models. If so, I missed that. If you're trying to predict what the playoff committee will actually do, though... You've been around long enough to know that it's unlikely the committee will follow the computer models that closely in their decision making process.

[Gangtackle11]

Wouldnt it make sense to have Coastal play the Citadel and Colgate with UNH for regionalization reasons? If UNH makes it, they would play Colgate, Fordham, or the NEC winner that first weekend.

UNH played Colgate earlier this season & I believe the committee would avoid the matchup.

I see the author has changed it, but he could have had UNH/Fordham & Colgate/Duquesne to get a better regional matchup. That would also put Coastal vs. The Citadel which is a entertaining 1st round matchup for South Carolina at least.

I'm "praying" for a Villanova/St.Francis, PA. matchup in the year of the Pope's visit.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Wouldnt it make sense to have Coastal play the Citadel and Colgate with UNH for regionalization reasons? If UNH makes it, they would play Colgate, Fordham, or the NEC winner that first weekend.

To some degree, yes, and full disclosure I had New Hampshire @ Fordham on my bracket for a long time before finally electing to break it up. I don't believe they will do a Colgate/UNH rematch, especially since Fordham/UNH is available.

Trying to regionalize this bracket ain't easy. Colgate/Fordham and Colgate/UNH are rematches. You need to put Duquesne somewhere, and if you put them with JMU (another possibility I was looking at) you mess up the South brackets and the midwest brackets. I'll just say I wasn't completely satisfied with my regionalization choices, but it was the least bad choice if you are hell bent on avoiding first-round rematches.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

UNH played Colgate earlier this season & I believe the committee would avoid the matchup.

I see the author has changed it, but he could have had UNH/Fordham & Colgate/Duquesne to get a better regional matchup. That would also put Coastal vs. The Citadel which is a entertaining 1st round matchup for South Carolina at least.

I'm "praying" for a Villanova/St.Francis, PA. matchup in the year of the Pope's visit.

Yes, exactly! I just don't think that they will do a Colgate/Duquesne matchup because they would be two of the weakest teams in the tourney Massey-wise. Don't think it's out of the question though.

[FargoBison]

Wouldnt it make sense to have Coastal play the Citadel and Colgate with UNH for regionalization reasons? If UNH makes it, they would play Colgate, Fordham, or the NEC winner that first weekend.

CCU-The Citadel would be a stone cold lock...with the winner going to Charleston Southern.

EIU-UNI is a lock to go to ISUR as well.

[Gangtackle11]

CCU-The Citadel would be a stone cold lock...with the winner going to Charleston Southern.

EIU-UNI is a lock to go to go ISUR as well.

I agree. It's about making $$$ with match ups that draw fans to games & get the best tv rating they can get.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

CCU-The Citadel would be a stone cold lock...with the winner going to Charleston Southern.

EIU-UNI is a lock to go to ISUR as well.

The problem with CCU-The Citadel is that you are guaranteeing a rematch of a regular-season game in round 2. The committee may deem that this is so compelling that it should happen, but I'm not so sure.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I agree. It's about making $$$ with match ups that draw fans to games & get the best tv rating they can get.

If you make a game that pretty much only the state of South Carolina cares about, these are at cross purposes.

I can tell you right now, if the main thrust of the seeding was TV revenue, no matchup in the quarterfinals would be more widely watched or anticipated than a Montana/NDSU rematch in the Fargodome. Period. Bar none.

[FargoBison]

The problem with CCU-The Citadel is that you are guaranteeing a rematch of a regular-season game in round 2. The committee may deem that this is so compelling that it should happen, but I'm not so sure.

The committee doesn't care about second round rematches from what I can tell. They sent that message loud and clear last year.

[Mattymc727]

Rematches are not an issue for the committee. UNH has had plenty of rematches over the years. Almost unavoidable in the northeast. Regionalization is king. They would stick Colgate with UNH no problem, although I think Fordham is just as fine.

[Gangtackle11]

The problem with CCU-The Citadel is that you are guaranteeing a rematch of a regular-season game in round 2. The committee may deem that this is so compelling that it should happen, but I'm not so sure.

Just looking back to last year's bracket.

JMU would have played Nova in round 2 if not for Liberty defeated the Dukes.

UNI was matched with ISU-r in round 2.

SDSU was matched to NDSU in round 2.

Not sure they had all met in regular season, but Villanova played JMU.

I think the committee looks at round 1 only in pairing up teams and avoids rematches. After that all bets are off.

They want revenue & if a familiar team from same conference is the ticket it's going to happen.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Just looking back to last year's bracket.

JMU would have played Nova in round 2 if not for Liberty defeated the Dukes.

UNI was matched with ISU-r in round 2.

SDSU was matched to NDSU in round 2.

Not sure they had all met in regular season, but Villanova played JMU.

I think the committee looks at round 1 only in pairing up teams and avoids rematches. After that all bets are off.

They want revenue & if a familiar team from same conference is the ticket it's going to happen.

As an avid fan of FCS football, I find conference rematches completely boring unless they're above the quarterfinals. Where I make an exception, I guess, is OOC games. I'd love to see a Montana@NDSU rematch. Maybe a Citadel/Chuck South rematch would fit that bill, but a Coastal/Chuck South wouldn't.

[grizband]

Just looking back to last year's bracket.

JMU would have played Nova in round 2 if not for Liberty defeated the Dukes.

UNI was matched with ISU-r in round 2.

SDSU was matched to NDSU in round 2.

Not sure they had all met in regular season, but Villanova played JMU.

I think the committee looks at round 1 only in pairing up teams and avoids rematches. After that all bets are off.

They want revenue & if a familiar team from same conference is the ticket it's going to happen.
Montana also had a rematch with Eastern Washington in the second round last year.

[FargoBison]

LFN most of us loathe rematches but the committee sadly has embraced them.

The MVFC has tried to change that but it seems like our cries have fallen on deaf ears.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

LFN most of us loathe rematches but the committee sadly has embraced them.

The MVFC has tried to change that but it seems like our cries have fallen on deaf ears.

If ever an exception would be made to this rule, I would hope it would be to set up a possible Montana/NDSU second round game.

Here's a thought. I am not sure how much leeway ESPN has here in broadcasting 2nd round games, as they're up against some of the FBS championship games. But let's say there's a Montana/NDSU rematch. Think someone at ESPN might seriously think about throwing that up for broadcast? Not on ESPN/2 certainly., but maybe another ESPN property, like ESPNU, ESPNNews or the like?

[Gangtackle11]

LFN most of us loathe rematches but the committee sadly has embraced them.

The MVFC has tried to change that but it seems like our cries have fallen on deaf ears.

Less travel & $$$ control FCS committee decisions. Plain & simple.

[Big_Fan]

A very significant number of computer rankings have NDSU and Illinois State at some combination of 1 and 2.

GIGO

[Go...gate]

Rematches are not an issue for the committee. UNH has had plenty of rematches over the years. Almost unavoidable in the northeast. Regionalization is king. They would stick Colgate with UNH no problem, although I think Fordham is just as fine.

A Colgate vs. UNH re-match might be a very good football game, too.

[centennial]

GIGO
Why don't you design some better garbage then? Just butt hurt JSU isn't number 1. Even with 2 losses NDSU outclasses you, BTW computers aren't using last year's rankings so late in the year.

[jmrepak]

I completely disagree with you on seeding CSU over CCU. However, even if CSU was to be seeded and Coastal wasn't, you really think they are a Top 5 worthy seed having a D-2 and ETSU on their schedule? They are ranked 8th by the coaches, media, Massey Comp. and AGS, and I shutter to even think about what their loss will look like this weekend (that game shouldn't matter but it does take a mental toll seeing a team get killed the day selection decisions are being made).

Personally, I think this bracket is completely out in left field, but that's fine. It's just your take on it. By the way, I would welcome a re-match against CSU. I have a feeling you'd see a very different outcome, and if we were to be unseeded my take at the path would be Citadel @ CCU vs 8 CSU. I don't think it happens, but I would take it.

[PantherRob82]

The problem with CCU-The Citadel is that you are guaranteeing a rematch of a regular-season game in round 2. The committee may deem that this is so compelling that it should happen, but I'm not so sure.

They send SDSU to NDSU and UNI to ILSU all the time. What's the difference?

[Gangtackle11]

They send SDSU to NDSU and UNI to ILSU all the time. What's the difference?

Agreed. I'd bet that is exactly what happens. That is Coastal-The Citadel with winner headed to Charleston Southern.

That is so what the committee would look to do.

[ElCid]

Personally, I think this bracket is completely out in left field, but that's fine. It's just your take on it. By the way, I would welcome a re-match against CSU. I have a feeling you'd see a very different outcome, and if we were to be unseeded my take at the path would be Citadel @ CCU vs 8 CSU. I don't think it happens, but I would take it.

I like it as well. But not certain who would out bid who to host. I am certain the Dogs would love another crack at CSU. It will be interesting to see is CCU saves its money for needed upgrades or bets on the publicity factor it might get from giving itself a better chance to advance. But I am still not certain who will get the seed. I am not certain that an unseeded Chatty is not in the mix as well against the unseeded team of CSU-CCU. Not sure where that would leave us if we get in. It will be much clearer Saturday evening, I hope.

[Big_Fan]

Why don't you design some better garbage then? Just butt hurt JSU isn't number 1. Even with 2 losses NDSU outclasses you, BTW computers aren't using last year's rankings so late in the year.

NDSU at 61 is a joke... nothing to do with JSU. It is a joke. GIGO is the only explanation.

The computers don't set the seeds, and the "Playoffs 'till I die" bracket is intentionally dissing JSU. Barring a collapse, it won't matter... we will be a top 2 seed, and probably #1. 145 out of 156 1st place votes in the coaches' poll tells me that.

We were seeded third last season. We are significantly better this season, and the teams that were above us are worse.

JSU is ranked #1 in the Massey Composite, and the margin would be higher if some of the systems weren't using garbage data. RPI has NDSU with 1 loss, instead of 2, and they aren't the only ones.

With the computers, the SOS argument is often out the window. Many if not most put more weight in MOV. We win that.

[TheKingpin28]

NDSU at 61 is a joke... nothing to do with JSU. It is a joke. GIGO is the only explanation.

The computers don't set the seeds, and the "Playoffs 'till I die" bracket is intentionally dissing JSU. Barring a collapse, it won't matter... we will be a top 2 seed, and probably #1. 145 out of 156 1st place votes in the coaches' poll tells me that.

We were seeded third last season. We are significantly better this season, and the teams that were above us are worse.

JSU is ranked #1 in the Massey Composite, and the margin would be higher if some of the systems weren't using garbage data. RPI has NDSU with 1 loss, instead of 2, and they aren't the only ones.

With the computers, the SOS argument is often out the window. Many if not most put more weight in MOV. We win that.

The coaches poll is about as relevant as ESPN is to hockey . They pretend to know about it but they couldn't tell you who each star player is on each team AND pronounce the name correctly.

[Gangtackle11]

The coaches poll is about as relevant as ESPN is to hockey . They pretend to know about it but they couldn't tell you who each star player is on each team AND pronounce the name correctly.
You mean the assistant Sports Information Directors poll?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Wanted to mention that I could see this bracket playing out very differently based on who wins this Saturday. Even tiny changes such as St. Francis (PA) beating Duquesne or EKU beating EIU could really change the geography around, or Montana losing, or UNI losing.

[URMite]

Not that it is very relevant but...

"However, if Richmond wins and Villanova wins, the three-way-tie would be William and Mary, Richmond and Villanova at 6-2. Here the tiebreaker goes down to conference wins against other CAA opponents - and the Tribe win all the tiebreakers."

In that case, the tie breaker is common opponents played by all 3, that is only JMU, so still tied. Therefore decided by Sagarin ELO_Chess.

[Gil Dobie]

If the Big Sky ends up with 7-4 NAU, Montana and UND, who get in?

UND has a FBS win, NAU a DII win and Montana beat both.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

If the Big Sky ends up with 7-4 NAU, Montana and UND, who get in?

UND has a FBS win, NAU a DII win and Montana beat both.

I think both UND and Montana are in if they win. Portland State is in if they win or lose IMO. Then the winner of SUU/NAU is in with a win. I think 4 BSC teams get in.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think both UND and Montana are in if they win. Portland State is in if they win or lose IMO. Then the winner of SUU/NAU is in with a win. I think 4 BSC teams get in.

This is how I see it playing out as well.

[RedFlash]

I know it doesn't matter, but another correction to your post:

"The winner of the Duquesne/St. Francis (PA) game will be the conference champs; the loser would only have 5 D-I wins and wouldn't have a strong enough resume for inclusion."

If SFU loses, they still have six D-1 wins (Georgetown, ETSU, Wagner, CCSU, Sacred Heart and Robert Morris.) I know the ETSU win doesn't feel like a D-1 win, but it does count.

[deez_na]

I know it doesn't matter, but another correction to your post:

"The winner of the Duquesne/St. Francis (PA) game will be the conference champs; the loser would only have 5 D-I wins and wouldn't have a strong enough resume for inclusion."

If SFU loses, they still have six D-1 wins (Georgetown, ETSU, Wagner, CCSU, Sacred Heart and Robert Morris.) I know the ETSU win doesn't feel like a D-1 win, but it does count.
SFU has to win to get in.

[RedFlash]

Oh yes, I know they need to win to get in. That's why I said:


I know it doesn't matter

It's just so rare that SFU gets 6 D-1 wins, I wanted to make sure they got their due.