Bracketology 5.0

[JSUSoutherner]

This is a very misleading summary. They played each other very close early in the year (true), and they both got thrashed by a Big Ten school. But, EIU did not have close games with WIU or JSU, while the ISUr game with SDSU was tight. That would account for the big difference in rankings.

I agree that there should be a considerable difference in rankings. But having one at 5 and one unranked is a bit extreme, and honestly they had me biting my nails for three quarters in the JSU game. They just couldn't hold on for the last 15 minutes when our offense finally decided to wake up. I at least think EIU should be ranked. Hopefully when the rankings come out tomorrow they will be on the list.

[kalm]

They have losses to a 5 loss team and a likely 5 loss team. They do have a good win with Washington, but UNT isn't a good win.

It was Washington State and like I said, no bad losses.

A 59 point win against any FBS is a good win and the Montana win is looking better too. Throw in SUU, EWU, and a 20 SOS (4th hardest in the top 25) and they should be in the discussion.

[centennial]

What irks me is the Murray State level MVC teams chanting SEC! SEC!...oops! I mean MVC! MVC! after beating Austin Peay or SEMO...then holding it up as evidence that their conference is the best - alongside their one team that is dominant. Heck, to hear SDSU fans talk, they are LSU. Reality is that they have a losing record against every FCS conference they have played 10 or more games against.

ISUr is the same way. They have been good for a couple of seasons, but they are a sub-500 program with a losing record in-conference.

In State? Losing record all-time, and to the OVC.

Mo St? Losing record all-time.

SDak? just over .500 thanks to NAIA years. Losing record to all FCS conferences (5 or more games).

SIU? under .500 all time

Most of the MVC wins over OVC teams predate those teams being in the OVC (EIU was in the MVC). EKU has a winning record against the MVC. JSU hasn't played many games against the MVC. We had a string of losses against MSU when we were transitioning. Murray State has a winning record against the MVC. SEMO has a losing record, but their win % is better than their conference win %.


Half the teams in the MVC have losing records all-time. A few more are barely over .500...but the run around chanting MVC! MVC!... ok. Whatever. Vandy shouts SEC! too.
The MVFC is 16-3 for FCS OOC, last year I think it was 21-1. There is a clear difference between MVFC and the rest of the FCS. Anyone should be able to see that. Your rhetoric do not change these facts. The computers rate us along with G5 conferences, and only a few teams in the FCS match our recruiting. NDSU's dominance has forced the league to get better. 1 team that is catching lightening using transfer does not a trend make. Come the playoffs knock out a few MVFC teams, and we will respect you. OVC doesn't have a stellar playoff record to boast about. And for the record we only have 1 Murray State level team(Missouri State), none of the other teams in the MVFC are as bad as them.

[tribefan40]

The MVFC is 16-3 for FCS OOC, last year I think it was 21-1. There is a clear difference between MVFC and the rest of the FCS. Anyone should be able to see that. Your rhetoric do not change these facts. The computers rate us along with G5 conferences, and only a few teams in the FCS match our recruiting. NDSU's dominance has forced the league to get better. 1 team that is catching lightening using transfer does not a trend make. Come the playoffs knock out a few MVFC teams, and we will respect you. OVC doesn't have a stellar playoff record to boast about. And for the record we only have 1 Murray State level team(Missouri State), none of the other teams in the MVFC are as bad as them.

I'm not debating the overall strength of the conference, but the ndsu effect is somewhat minimized here. Granted there are other very good teams, but on the whole, ndsu is 90% responsible for the current perception of the conference.

[CappinHard]

How about we get put on opposite sides and settle it in Frisco?xnodx

I would say that this sounds great, except for the fact that I would rather have SDSU play NDSU while Wentz is still out. I don't want to see Wentz to come back to haunt SDSU one last time. Honestly though, if NDSU plays like they have been, depending on who they get matched up against they might not make it to Frisco.

[JSUSoutherner]

Won't be close.

EIU is 1-4 against teams .500 or better.

UNI wasn't even close with ISUr, EIU was. UNI got TRASHED by Iowa State , whose only other wins include Kansas and Texas (who both suck, a lot), a team that you guys should have at least put up a solid fight against. Without the win over SDSU, who beat ISUr, who UNI lost to, UNI wouldn't even be relevant. If you don't think EIU isn't capable of giving you guys a game than your more arrogant than I thought.

[CappinHard]

I'm not debating the overall strength of the conference, but the ndsu effect is somewhat minimized here. Granted there are other very good teams, but on the whole, ndsu is 90% responsible for the current perception of the conference.

This is laughable. You must have missed the championship game where it was 2 MVFC teams going againt each other. You must have also missed the fact that SDSU is one of only a few teams to make the playoffs 4 years in a row now.

[JSUSoutherner]

This is laughable. You must have missed the championship game where it was 2 MVFC teams going againt each other. You must have also missed the fact that SDSU is one of only a few teams to make the playoffs 4 years in a row now.

Hey guys, remember how I said earlier MVC fans like to bring up the past when they run out of arguments? Here it is. And you honestly don't think that if NDSU hadn't romped around for four years the MVC would still be thought of as the Conference to rule them all? I think your forgetting the fact a SOUTHLAND team went to the championship twice of those four years and probably would have gone again last year if they didn't have a powerhouse NDSU on their side of the bracket. Nobody thinks the Southland is good, because they didn't win, but they were always up there at the top too.

[Sycamore62]

UNI wasn't even close with ISUr, EIU was. UNI got TRASHED by Iowa State , whose only other wins include Kansas and Texas (who both suck, a lot), a team that you guys should have at least put up a solid fight against. Without the win over SDSU, who beat ISUr, who UNI lost to, UNI wouldn't even be relevant. If you don't think EIU isn't capable of giving you guys a game than your more arrogant than I thought.

I watched all these teams except EKU. The dynamics of the game make me thing EIU will beat them then if they play UNI it won't be close.

[FargoBison]

Hey guys, remember how I said earlier MVC fans like to bring up the past when they run out of arguments? Here it is. And you honestly don't think that if NDSU hadn't romped around for four years the MVC would still be thought of as the Conference to rule them all? I think your forgetting the fact a SOUTHLAND team went to the championship twice of those four years and probably would have gone again last year if they didn't have a powerhouse NDSU on their side of the bracket. Nobody thinks the Southland is good, because they didn't win, but they were always up there at the top too.

Nah....SDSU and CCU were both better then SHSU. People tend to forget that we've sent SDSU home packing multiple times...just the way regionalization works sadly.

[kalm]

The MVFC is 16-3 for FCS OOC, last year I think it was 21-1. There is a clear difference between MVFC and the rest of the FCS. Anyone should be able to see that. Your rhetoric do not change these facts. The computers rate us along with G5 conferences, and only a few teams in the FCS match our recruiting. NDSU's dominance has forced the league to get better. 1 team that is catching lightening using transfer does not a trend make. Come the playoffs knock out a few MVFC teams, and we will respect you. OVC doesn't have a stellar playoff record to boast about. And for the record we only have 1 Murray State level team(Missouri State), none of the other teams in the MVFC are as bad as them.

yep.

how many OVC teams have even made it to the Semi's in the last decade?

[Sycamore62]

Hey guys, remember how I said earlier MVC fans like to bring up the past when they run out of arguments? Here it is. And you honestly don't think that if NDSU hadn't romped around for four years the MVC would still be thought of as the Conference to rule them all? I think your forgetting the fact a SOUTHLAND team went to the championship twice of those four years and probably would have gone again last year if they didn't have a powerhouse NDSU on their side of the bracket. Nobody thinks the Southland is good, because they didn't win, but they were always up there at the top too.

Im not sure about "probably" last year for SHSU. ISUr just kept doing what it had to do to win.

[Big_Fan]

Since moving up who do we have a losing record against? Not the OVC. Not the BSC. I think we've played one CAA school. We are around .500 against the Southland. Which conference are we talking about?

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.

[clenz]

UNI wasn't even close with ISUr, EIU was. UNI got TRASHED by Iowa State , whose only other wins include Kansas and Texas (who both suck, a lot), a team that you guys should have at least put up a solid fight against. Without the win over SDSU, who beat ISUr, who UNI lost to, UNI wouldn't even be relevant. If you don't think EIU isn't capable of giving you guys a game than your more arrogant than I thought.Iowa State was the first game of the season with a offensive coaching staff that had a new OC, new QB coach, new WR coach, new OL coach and a new RB coach But yeah, that game was ugly.

UNI beat EWU - though they have fallen
UNI lead NDSU until the final 35 seconds
UNI beat SDSU
UNI's loss to Illinois State was by 1 TD - that's hardly "not even close".

You seem to forget that EIU for raped by WIU who is sub .500 in conference.


UNI has given up a total of 30 points in the last 4.5 games.....That's 18 quarters. That's 1.6 points per quarter. I may be slightly off by this, but UNI's defense and special teams have nearly that many points in the same time frame. The defense is allowing a smidge over 2.0 yards per carry over that time.

The average yards per carry the last 5 games, in reverse order: 1.4, 1.6 1.5, 2.6, 2.9.
UNI has 81 TFL
Want to pass the ball? Better have a quick hit system. UNI has 31 sacks and another 10 QBH
Better be accurate - 12 picks and I believe 5 or 6 of them have been returned for 6
14 forced fumbles.


The way to beat UNI is to find a way to put a ton of points up on them. The offense isn't great - though UNI is averaging 30 points per game in FCS games while giving up 15. The issue is - there are very few teams whose offense is good enough to outman UNI's defense and it's been UNI's lack of offense that have cost them a couple games this year


The start of the season sucked, but let's not act like UNI is a dog **** program right now.

[centennial]

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.
Wow, just wow. SDSU is a solid team, who cares that they weren't good 15 years ago. You are really trying hard to troll anyone possible.

[Professor Chaos]

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.
Well, since my team has won more games in each of the last 4 years than any OVC team has ever in a single season am I qualified to say the OVC is weak?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Given how the committee does seeding I think JMU is going to surprise people next Sunday. Assuming they beat Villanova of course.

[JSUSoutherner]

You guys forget the fact we are talking about this year's playoffs. A lot. Yes, JSU and the OVC have a god awful post season record over the past 4 years and NDSU was king of the world for 4 years straight. This is a new season and the fact that the MVC has been good doesn't mean they are at the top. The MVC doesn't look nearly as solid as it has in the past and JSU is finally loaded. Just because NDSU went for 56 (or however many it was) straight doesn't mean they still are unbeatable, they've been beaten twice and their record could easily be 6-4 right now. EIU played ISUr solid and JSU is loaded. This is this season and your championships from the last 4 years won't win you this year's trophy. This year's team does that. And this year's MVC teams don't look like MVC teams of the past and JSU doesn't look like JSU of the past. So if you want to ride on the past, fine. Just be able to back it up in the playoffs.

[FargoBison]

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.

SDSU had a team last year that would have went to Texas if NDSU didn't beat them on a last minute TD. They were that good. NFL running back, solid QB and a stud WR. In the past three playoffs they've lost to NDSU twice and once to EWU. Yeah...what a bottom feeder.

[Professor Chaos]

UNI wasn't even close with ISUr, EIU was. UNI got TRASHED by Iowa State , whose only other wins include Kansas and Texas (who both suck, a lot), a team that you guys should have at least put up a solid fight against. Without the win over SDSU, who beat ISUr, who UNI lost to, UNI wouldn't even be relevant. If you don't think EIU isn't capable of giving you guys a game than your more arrogant than I thought.
Yet yesterday you were pumping up Kansas as "almost beating TCU" in your SDSU over NDSU reasoning. Double standard much?

[FargoBison]

Given how the committee does seeding I think JMU is going to surprise people next Sunday. Assuming they beat Villanova of course.

I could see it, especially if PSU loses.

[JSUSoutherner]

Yet yesterday you were pumping up Kansas as "almost besting TCU" in your SDSU over NDSU reasoning. Double standard much?

The difference is SDSU actually won. UNI didn't even show up.

[Sycamore62]

You guys forget the fact we are talking about this year's playoffs. A lot. Yes, JSU and the OVC have a god awful post season record over the past 4 years and NDSU was king of the world for 4 years straight. This is a new season and the fact that the MVC has been good doesn't mean they are at the top. The MVC doesn't look nearly as solid as it has in the past and JSU is finally loaded. Just because NDSU went for 56 (or however many it was) straight doesn't mean they still are unbeatable, they've been beaten twice and their record could easily be 6-4 right now. EIU played ISUr solid and JSU is loaded. This is this season and your championships from the last 4 years won't win you this year's trophy. This year's team does that. And this year's MVC teams don't look like MVC teams of the past and JSU doesn't look like JSU of the past. So if you want to ride on the past, fine. Just be able to back it up in the playoffs.

I think as a whole, the playoff qualifiers will be better from the MVFC than last year.

And the last 4 years?

[mango43]

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.

Yeah, that conference title was a D1 conference but sure.

Ask anyone in the MVFC if SDSU is a mediocre program, they will disagree with you. Yes, the history isn't great but right now SDSU is a damn good program, a program that is routinely in the top 3 or 4 in the toughest conference in the nation. A team that could have made deep playoff runs two of the last 3 years but ran into NDSU in the second round those years because of regionalization.

Please tell us how great Jacksonville State is when they missed the playoffs two times since 2009, the same number as SDSU and Jacksonville State has made it out of the second round once. So if SDSU is a mediocre program, what is Jacksonville State?

[clenz]

Yeah, that conference title was a D1 conference but sure.

Ask anyone in the MVFC if SDSU is a mediocre program, they will disagree with you. Yes, the history isn't great but right now SDSU is a damn good program, a program that is routinely in the top 3 or 4 in the toughest conference in the nation. A team that could have made deep playoff runs two of the last 3 years but ran into NDSU in the second round those years because of regionalization.

Please tell us how great Jacksonville State is when they missed the playoffs two times since 2008, something SDSU had done once, and Jacksonville State has made it out of the second round once.The OVC has 4 playoff wins since 1999 (I believe)

One of those wins was against the Pioneer League
A second was against another OVC team

[Big_Fan]

The MVFC... it stands for "Myopic Vision Football Conference."

The top 5 teams don't suck, so everybody else is great, too! If you aren't in the MVFC, you suck. MEAC, SWAC, Patriot, NEC, OVC, SoCon, SFL, Big South... all crap! We tolerate the Big Sky because one of their teams has Dakota in its name!

[centennial]

I think as a whole, the playoff qualifiers will be better from the MVFC than last year.

And the last 4 years?
We have 4 teams that are as good as JSU, and maybe even arguably better. It will be be funny if UNI gets a low seed and takes them out at their own house, and IMO it won't be close.

[Bison56]

And I thought ISUr fans were touchy.

[FargoBison]

We have 4 teams that are as good as JSU, and maybe even arguably better. It will be be funny if UNI gets a low seed and takes them out at their own house, and IMO it won't be close.

Sadly UNI is destined for a date with ISUR or SDSU.

[Bison56]

The OVC............... that's all I got.

[centennial]

Sadly UNI is destined for a date with ISUR or SDSU.
The committee will eliminate MVFC teams by playing them against each other. I hope that will change.

[JSUSoutherner]

I think as a whole, the playoff qualifiers will be better from the MVFC than last year.

And the last 4 years?

Well the MVC's best OOC wins this year include Kansas, EIU, and EWU. So they look pretty average to me this year compared to dominance I've seen in the past from some teams.


Yeah, that conference title was a D1 conference but sure.

Ask anyone in the MVFC if SDSU is a mediocre program, they will disagree with you. Yes, the history isn't great but right now SDSU is a damn good program, a program that is routinely in the top 3 or 4 in the toughest conference in the nation. A team that could have made deep playoff runs two of the last 3 years but ran into NDSU in the second round those years because of regionalization.

Please tell us how great Jacksonville State is when they missed the playoffs two times since 2008, something SDSU had done once, and Jacksonville State has made it out of the second round once.

I literally just said JSU's past post season record is garbage, were you not reading? I agree with you. I also said this isn't the same JSU we've had in the past. Our front lines are loaded and brutal, our offense has more weapons than an army depot, and our coaches are great. Jack Crowe was hardly a playoff worthy coach. We had Clark for a whopping one year. Now we have an excellent coach whom the team respects and listens to. We are not the JSU of the past and I really hope our team gets to show it in Frisco this year.

Plus I'm pretty sure I spent several hours last night trying to explain why I thought SDSU was a deserving program. I guess that never happened either.

[mango43]

You haven't been FCS long enough to play 10 games. Your all-time record is the one in question, and the historic strength of your program is reflected by that. SDSU is a sub-500 program. You guys are exactly what I am talking about. You were a mediocre to poor D2 team that couldn't get a playoff bid, wallowing in obscurity. You have one conference title since 1963, and that was a D2 in 2007. No 10 win seasons in the history of your program. Lucky draws in the playoffs to collect a few wins, but blown out by good non-conference opponents (Eastern Washington, MT). You huff join the chants of MVC! MVC! and puff about the OVC because you blew out the worst OVC playoff team in memory (we were actually loaded and should have won the conference, but so poorly coached that season that we finally fired Crowe).

SDSU is a mediocre program that only has one season with fewer than 5 losses in the last 10 years. Go ahead and chant "MVC! MVC!" Go ahead and shout "weak conference!" It rings hollow to anyone but other MVC homers. Win 10 games or a championship. Good teams do that... they don't lose 5 games and then puff up over conference strength. That is what bottom-feeders do.

One last thing, you need to check your facts. In the last 10 years, since 2006, SDSU has finished with fewer than 5 losses 5 times. 2006, 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2015 since it's mathematically impossible to lose 5 games this year.

[JSUSoutherner]

One last thing, you need to check your facts. In the last 10 years, since 2006, SDSU has finished with fewer than 5 losses 5 times. 2095, 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2015 since it's mathematically impossible to lose 5 games this year.

You might want to check YOUR facts. 2095 hasn't happened yet. 😉

[mango43]

Well the MVC's best OOC wins this year include Kansas, EIU, and EWU. So they look pretty average to me this year compared to dominance I've seen in the past from some teams.



I literally just said JSU's past post season record is garbage, were you not reading? I agree with you. I also said this isn't the same JSU we've had in the past. Our front lines are loaded and brutal, our offense has more weapons than an army depot, and our coaches are great. Jack Crowe was hardly a playoff worthy coach. We had Clark for a whopping one year. Now we have an excellent coach whom the team respects and listens to. We are not the JSU of the past and I really hope our team gets to show it in Frisco this year.

Plus I'm pretty sure I spent several hours last night trying to explain why I thought SDSU was a deserving program. I guess that never happened either.

Well considering I'm not responding to you....

Don't forget that SDSU DESTROYED Southern Utah, who's at the top of the Big Sky

[mango43]

You might want to check YOUR facts. 2095 hasn't happened yet. 😉

Damn phone

[JSUSoutherner]

Well considering I'm not responding to you....

Don't forget that SDSU DESTROYED Southern Utah, at the top of the Big Sky

Ahh, my miss. Yeah, I forgot about the SUU win. I guess I could add that to my SDSU>NDSU argument too couldn't I? I probably shouldn't bring that up though should I? I'll probably just upset some NDSU fan with my opinions again...

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

I could make a case for SDSU over NDSU just as easy as I can make a case for NDSU over SDSU when it comes to seeding priority, so it really comes down to what each individual values more. Rational minds can reach different conclusions.

I think most believe NDSU will get the nod over SDSU when the committee puts it to a vote, but what annoys some is that idea that it's "unfathomable" to put SDSU over NDSU.

I think it is very likely that SDSU gets seeded over NDSU. The argument being made of Good wins vs Bad losses is an excellent argument. Admittingly it is tough to stomach after the head to head match up, but It all depends on the committee. Who the heck knows which they will put more priority on. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy that we shouldn't have to play each other in the second round(baring a meltdown in the last game). Personally I like SDSU and hope they do work in the playoffs. Unlike UNI for whom my hatred runs too deep.

[JayJ79]

What irks me is the Murray State level MVC teams chanting SEC! SEC!...oops! I mean MVC! MVC! after beating Austin Peay or SEMO...then holding it up as evidence that their conference is the best

[blah blah blah]

Half the teams in the MVC have losing records all-time. A few more are barely over .500...but the run around chanting MVC! MVC!... ok. Whatever. Vandy shouts SEC! too.

MVFC fans are claiming that they are the best FCS conference NOW (and perhaps the last couple years). I don't know of anyone claiming they are the best all time.

Looking at all-time records of teams vs. other conferences is silly, given the conference (and division) changes. Plus, prior to this decade, the MVFC was pretty much dominated by one team.

[Grizzlies82]

I've waded through most of these pages, but not all. So excuse me if these points have been thoroughly covered. Baring any shocking upsets my take...

1) Jacksonville State will be seeded #1. It's likely their conference may only get one more team in.
2) Undefeated McNeese is seeded #2 ahead of NDSU, ISU, or any other team with a loss (except if to Auburn). Southland also gets Sam/C Ark winner in (not both).
3) Big Sky has 6 of its 13 teams in the mix. At least three teams in, with four still a possibility. How many & which ones depend on this weekend's results.
3a) Win or lose at E. WA, Portland St is in. With a win and they're seeded #5 or 6, not at #8. They'd have a 9-2 record including TWO FBS wins.
4) Don't know if Citadel is better than No Dakota, but both MUST win this week to be in. UND then likely needs other 7-4 teams to lose to get a good shot.
5) Missouri Valley conference gets four teams in. The best seed goes to their Conf. champ regardless of needing 'late game' wins. Two others will be seeded.
6) CAA is hard to figure out. Let's just say they'll get several in. If their bubble teams upset the favorites then they'll likely get more teams in.
7) Coastal could be seeded instead of Char. So. Yet either of them is likely to be the #8.

If you're curious about my calls just ask me on Sunday. I believe I'll have more precise predictions then.
Hope I didn't offend anybody too badly. Good luck to all. Go Griz!

[JSUSoutherner]

I've waded through most of these pages, but not all. So excuse me if these points have been thoroughly covered. Baring any shocking upsets my take...

1) Jacksonville State will be seeded #1. It's likely their conference may only get one more team in.
2) Undefeated McNeese is seeded #2 ahead of NDSU, ISU, or any other team with a loss (except if to Auburn). Southland also gets Sam/C Ark winner in (not both).
3) Big Sky has 6 of its 13 teams in the mix. At least three teams in, with four still a possibility. How many & which ones depend on this weekend's results.
3a) Win or lose at E. WA, Portland St is in. With a win and they're seeded #5 or 6, not at #8. They'd have a 9-2 record including TWO FBS wins.
4) Don't know if Citadel is better than No Dakota, but both MUST win this week to be in. UND then likely needs other 7-4 teams to lose to get a good shot.
5) Missouri Valley conference gets four teams in. The best seed goes to their Conf. champ regardless of needing 'late game' wins. Two others will be seeded.
6) CAA is hard to figure out. Let's just say they'll get several in. If their bubble teams upset the favorites then they'll likely get more teams in.
7) Coastal could be seeded instead of Char. So. Yet either of them is likely to be the #8.

If you're curious about my calls just ask me on Sunday. I believe I'll have more precise predictions then.
Hope I didn't offend anybody too badly. Good luck to all. Go Griz!

1.) Agreed, although I believe EIU has a really good shot if they beat EKU convincingly this weekend. EKU is out because of Murray loss and UTM is out because they will only have 6 wins.

2.) Agreed

3.) Yup.

4.) Yup.

5.) The conference champions argument is pretty solid. As much as I think SDSU is more deserving NDSU will likely be a co-champion. I can't see NDSU taking a fall to MSU. That being said, the MVC this year is a hot mess and anything can happen.

6.) JMU's only losses are a game where they lost Vad to Richmond and a close one with W+M. Richmond lost to UNH. So I'm thinking W+M then JMU over Richmond.

7.) Personally, I'm giving it to CSU. I think if Charleston has a good showing against Alabama (I hope they kick the crap out of Bama) then they will get in over Coastal. CSU has the head to head going for them and CCU doesn't really have much going for them other than 9-1. Not to mention CSU is the conference champion.

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

I'm not a Bison hater. Big Fan hit on this earlier when he compared the OVC and the MVC. The MVC beats itself up and then instantly cries SOS. SEC fans consider the B1G a cupcake league but you don't see Ohio State getting dropped by Alabama. Bison fans remind me a lot of Alabama fans. They have a dominate past which they always quick to remind everyone about even though their past means nothing for this year. Then they drop games to teams they should be able to win then cry SOS when the week before they would give you hell for saying there was a chance for the other team to win. Then they go in and get handled by a team that they claim is only highly ranked because they trash cupcakes week in and week out, which for Ohio State isn't untrue, the B1G is pretty cupcake heavy, but the fact is Ohio State can still bring it and put people in their place. NDSU is like Alabama and I hope JSU can fill the part of Ohio State this year with our loaded roster. But even if we don't fill that part it doesn't change the fact that MVC fans always go back to the "MVC is the best conference in FCS" argument, which Big Fan addressed. Im not a Bison hater or an MVC hater. I just wish people would quit riding on SOS and their past to boast their team. I guess I can't say anything for a fan wanting to argue their team is better, but at least people have their opinions. In my first post at the end I explicitly said "arguments can be made to move anyone around" and NDSU fans rained hellfire down on me because they thought they were one spot too low. Whose really the hater here? I'm just trying to defend my stance, if you go back and check, NDSU fans started the whole debate. I don't have an agenda, just an opinion and if that's too much for you guys to handle no wonder you struggle to handle so many of the teams you play.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTxcQWTvxcb3Swb6er_wDE_HuETxMm4S QH8gwzzNcdfjW-57PpQ

Take that, ya dirty animal

[JSUSoutherner]

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTxcQWTvxcb3Swb6er_wDE_HuETxMm4S QH8gwzzNcdfjW-57PpQ

Take that, ya dirty animal

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/11/15/b55ea71df1d6b6bb84892b0e9367d333.jpg

[Big_Fan]

JSUSoutherner has the point correct.

The logic is baffling... it is ok for fans of the Myopic Vision Football Conference to scream "everyone sucks, the OVC sucks!" etc... but if someone suggests that perhaps the MVFC is a tad overrated this year (nobody is denying that they are the best conference in the land top to bottom), and that not every team in the conference is championship caliber, woe be unto them.

The idea that there are 5 MVFC teams that would be favored against JSU is ridiculous. There might be 5 that could beat us on any given Saturday... but the Bison in Fargo are the only ones who would likely be favored. If it was at JSU, the Gamecocks would be the favorites - or no worse than a pick-em. By that same token, NDSU lost to USD and Montana. EIU, UTM, and even EKU are in the same league as those teams. If Montana can lose to Cal Poly, Weber, and Liberty...but beat NDSU... any given Saturday would apply with EKU, EIU, and UTM... and JSU is quite a bit better than those 3. That is not applying a transitive property to football... that doesn't work. It is applying logic and reason, two qualities that seem to fly out the window when discussing match-ups with the Myopic Vision fans.

Heck, I bet you would say that any team who loses to Weber and Cal Poly would have no shot against NDSU...yet here we are. NDSU has two losses, with one of them being at home to a five loss team (that was blown out 3 times, and beaten convincingly a fourth).

Meanwhile, all JSU has done is win. Usually quite convincingly... with our lone loss being a "should have won it" game at Auburn. Excuse us for feeling like we belong in the discussion, and deserving of a one seed.

[ming01]

I think you could make an argument for JMU as the 8 seed. Also think you could make an argument for NDSU over both ISU/Sdsu. Also ISU ahead of NDSU/Sdsu. Also, Sdsu over ISU. The two conference losses will likely put Sdsu behind Ndsu and maybe even Isu. You could also argue W&M as high as 2 or 3. Also the 3 MVC teams over McNeese. Then there's PSU.

My head hurts. Still a lot of games to play.

[rokamortis]

Eh... then you would have NDSU>SDSU>ISU and ISU>USD>NDSU. I think SDSU, NDSU, and ISUr have done enough to be seeded (if all three win out), but at this point I can't see a solid argument how they should be seeded. It would be interesting to hear what Dannen's thoughts are, the UNI AD and committee representative from the MVFC.

That's a good point. All 3 with 2 losses and similar wins that can be debated - perhaps with SDSU given the edge for the FBS win. The main difference, at least to me, is in the losses. NDSU's losses are worse than ISUr and SDSU.

All that said just to make the point that I don't know if NDSU is a clear 2 seed or should be seeded over the other MVFC schools. There is no denying their history and I think if NDSU does get the 2 seed or is seeded above ISUr or SDSU then past performance is why. I don't have a problem with it - this is just more discussion for the sake of discussion than anything else.

It will be very interesting to see how the committee handles the seeding. They always seem to make an unexpected move in selections and / or seeding.

[UNHWildCats]

This certainly has been an entertaining thread.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

That's a good point. All 3 with 2 losses and similar wins that can be debated - perhaps with SDSU given the edge for the FBS win. The main difference, at least to me, is in the losses. NDSU's losses are worse than ISUr and SDSU.

All that said just to make the point that I don't know if NDSU is a clear 2 seed or should be seeded over the other MVFC schools. There is no denying their history and I think if NDSU does get the 2 seed or is seeded above ISUr or SDSU then past performance is why. I don't have a problem with it - this is just more discussion for the sake of discussion than anything else.

It will be very interesting to see how the committee handles the seeding. They always seem to make an unexpected move in selections and / or seeding.

Seems like everybody is forgetting SDSU has 2 conference losses.

[Bisonator]

Can't wait for the playoffs when all of this talking is taken care of on the field and the truly best teams are left standing. Best thing about FCS!

[WileECoyote06]

Like I said before, if a MEAC team wants to be in the playoffs...I suggest that they stop being a MEAC team and join a real FCS conference. They made their bed and they can lay in it, enjoy your BS bowl.

A&T tried to join another conference. NCCU would have been right behind them if we had an invite.

[WileECoyote06]

You forgot to mention that they are second place in that conference.

BCU in the playoff predictors probably think NCCU is going to upset A&T; forcing a tie in the standings. A&T is locked into the Celebration Bowl based on the interpretation of our tiebreakers, and NCCU will be the odd-man out. Thus BCU would be a conference co-champion; and the committee has consistently rewarded conference co-champions with at-large bids. Now if NCCU loses, which I doubt seeing as A&T is down to their fourth string quarterback; then BCU is out.

I guess the greater FCS community is going to cheer on the farmers this weekend. xcoffeex

[rokamortis]

Seems like everybody is forgetting SDSU has 2 conference losses.

I didn't forget it. They have 2 losses, just like NDSU and ISUr. With the losses being conference losses, does that make them worse than NDSU's losses? I'm just looking at the quality of the team each school lost to and seems NDSU lost to the schools rated the worst in comparison to SDSU and ISUr regardless of the conference they belong to. Is that incorrect?

[Fordham]

I'm crossing my fingers and hope we get in. If we do, the majority of Nostradamuses have us playing somewhere in Virginia in the first round. Richmond or JMU most likely.

Any idea on when the schedule will be released to know when the game will be played? I think over Thanksgiving weekend they sometimes mess around and plug a game or two on Friday with the majority on Saturday. Do they announce the schedules and game times for Rd 1 at the same time they release the field?

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

I'm crossing my fingers and hope we get in. If we do, the majority of Nostradamuses have us playing somewhere in Virginia in the first round. Richmond or JMU most likely.

Any idea on when the schedule will be released to know when the game will be played? I think over Thanksgiving weekend they sometimes mess around and plug a game or two on Friday with the majority on Saturday. Do they announce the schedules and game times for Rd 1 at the same time they release the field?

Selection show is Sunday Nov 22nd. ESPNU at 10 pm central time.

[JaxSinfonian]

1.) Agreed, although I believe EIU has a really good shot if they beat UTM convincingly this weekend.

EIU hosts EKU this weekend. The Panthers beat UTM 23-21 on Saturday.

An EIU win over the Colonels is the OVC's best hope for a second bid. That would give the Panthers two, but just two, wins over teams with winning records -- UTM and EKU. Neither EKU nor UTM can finish with more than than one win over a .500+ team.

If EKU wins, I could see an argument that would leave just one OVC team in the field. The rest of the conference just didn't do much worth rewarding this year.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

I didn't forget it. They have 2 losses, just like NDSU and ISUr. With the losses being conference losses, does that make them worse than NDSU's losses? I'm just looking at the quality of the team each school lost to and seems NDSU lost to the schools rated the worst in comparison to SDSU and ISUr regardless of the conference they belong to. Is that incorrect?

If all three teams win this week, NDSU gets the autobid. NO way the selection committee seeds an at large team above a autobid team.

[rokamortis]

If all three teams win this week, NDSU gets the autobid. NO way the selection committee seeds an at large team above a autobid team.

No way? Like last year when Coastal got a seed when Liberty got the autobid? That no way? I'm sure there are other examples ...

[clenz]

No way? Like last year when Coastal got a seed when Liberty got the autobid? That no way? I'm sure there are other examples ...
2008 UNI got the 3 seed but SIU got the auto bid...

[cpacmel]

Selection show is Sunday Nov 22nd. ESPNU at 10 pm central time.

10am

[CSU18]

I'm just glad CSU is in the playoffs and is even in the conversation about getting a top 8 seed. First time in school history of making it - just hope we play well when we get there, regardless of who/when we play. Biggest thing I want is for their 1st game to be within driving distance from me so I can go.

[Missingnumber7]

BCU in the playoff predictors probably think NCCU is going to upset A&T; forcing a tie in the standings. A&T is locked into the Celebration Bowl based on the interpretation of our tiebreakers, and NCCU will be the odd-man out. Thus BCU would be a conference co-champion; and the committee has consistently rewarded conference co-champions with at-large bids. Now if NCCU loses, which I doubt seeing as A&T is down to their fourth string quarterback; then BCU is out.

I guess the greater FCS community is going to cheer on the farmers this weekend. xcoffeex

It doesn't matter what happens this weekend in the MEAC that no one gets in, and that is all due to the bowl game. No one in the room to fight for them.

[Sammy94]

I think if Sam wins they are in - if they lose they are out....

Exactly, if the Bears can't beat us they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Our best win is vs a D2 team. We couldn't even beat Lamar. We suck, how we are even still ranked just blows my mind.

[Sycamore62]

I'm crossing my fingers and hope we get in. If we do, the majority of Nostradamuses have us playing somewhere in Virginia in the first round. Richmond or JMU most likely.

Any idea on when the schedule will be released to know when the game will be played? I think over Thanksgiving weekend they sometimes mess around and plug a game or two on Friday with the majority on Saturday. Do they announce the schedules and game times for Rd 1 at the same time they release the field?

I thought they did say when the games would be played at the time they release the brackets

[Missingnumber7]

I thought they did say when the games would be played at the time they release the brackets

They typically announce game times/locations for the first round on the selection show.

[JMUNJ08]

Exactly, if the Bears can't beat us they don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Our best win is vs a D2 team. We couldn't even beat Lamar. We suck, how we are even still ranked just blows my mind.

Only due to the mediocrity of other teams... There is no reason for you guys to be top 20 right now... though with a W over UCA, you are in

[katstrapper]

I disagree. Looking at this year because we are not talking about last year, you can say if there is a 6 win team that makes it in over a 7 win team then that's a shame. UCA already has 7 division I wins.

Plus what if Sam only wins by 1 point. That would be hard to justify leaving UCA out.

I agree with Fargobison, whoever wins on Saturday will be the at large team. Kats will not get in with a 7-4 record. I will say there is an outside chance SLC could get 3 teams in the playoffs, but that would only happen if SHSU wins, UCA loses and the committee is short on quality at-large teams.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm crossing my fingers and hope we get in. If we do, the majority of Nostradamuses have us playing somewhere in Virginia in the first round. Richmond or JMU most likely.

Any idea on when the schedule will be released to know when the game will be played? I think over Thanksgiving weekend they sometimes mess around and plug a game or two on Friday with the majority on Saturday. Do they announce the schedules and game times for Rd 1 at the same time they release the field?


I thought they did say when the games would be played at the time they release the brackets
I don't think they announce any game times during the selection show but the weekend after Thanksgiving and the first Saturday in December (round of 16) all games are on Saturday. They will play one quarterfinal game on Friday 12/11 and one semifinal game on Friday 12/18.

Generally for the games in the first and second rounds the kickoffs are determined solely by the school since ESPN doesn't care when they kick off if they're just streaming on ESPN3 (it would actually be nice for people watching if they spread the games out a little bit but that usually doesn't happen with most of the kickoffs coming between 1-4PM ET). For the quarterfinals and semifinals you won't hear any game times until late Saturday/early Sunday the week before since ESPN decides then what games they want to show on the national networks and those kickoff times are dictated by the TV schedule. If I recall correctly there's 4 national TV spots for quarterfinal and semifinal games:

1) Friday 12/11 at 8PM ET on ESPN2 (national quarterfinal)
2) Saturday 12/12 at 12PM ET on ESPN (national quarterfinal)
3) Friday 12/18 at 8PM ET on ESPN2 (national semifinal)
4) Saturday 12/19 at 4PM ET on ESPNU (national semifinal)

[mamberso]

Can't wait for the playoffs when all of this talking is taken care of on the field and the truly best teams are left standing. Best thing about FCS!

Indeed.

[dystopiamembrane]

Can't wait for the playoffs when all of this talking is taken care of on the field and the truly best teams are left standing. Best thing about FCS!What's the name of this site again?

[WileECoyote06]

It doesn't matter what happens this weekend in the MEAC that no one gets in, and that is all due to the bowl game. No one in the room to fight for them.

You're on the committee? Is that the way things are done? If so, maybe abdicating our auto-bid wasn't such a bad idea.

Disclaimer: I don't think that BCU will be invited to the playoffs; but it has little to do with who's advocating for them or who isn't. Their SOS is terrible this year, and they don't have an FBS win to buoy them up. But the committee's behavior has been consistent over the past five to six seasons. A team tied for the MEAC championship with nine wins and one conference loss has received an at-large (SCSU 2010, SCSU 2013). We're going to beat A&T and burst some playoff-bubbles.

[Model Citizen]

I have a question regarding the selection of 1st round home fields.

Does anyone know when $ bids are due? Same day as the bracket is announced?

[rokamortis]

I have a question regarding the selection of 1st round home fields.

Does anyone know when $ bids are due? Same day as the bracket is announced?

All bids are due today.


The following materials must be submitted by institutions that wish to be considered as hosts for preliminary-round competition. All materials are due by 5 p.m. Eastern time, Monday, November 16.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015DIFootball_Bid_Checklist_20151012.pdf

[Model Citizen]

So they're getting bids from a few schools that won't ultimately make the tournament field...

[clenz]

So they're getting bids from a few schools that won't ultimately make the tournament field...
Yes.

If you think you have a shot, you bid.

How much is Dayton going to bid, you think?.



Also, bids aren't opened until after match ups are set. They don't impact who gets seeded/match up. Opening the bids is the last thing that happens in that room.

[McNeese72]

So they're getting bids from a few schools that won't ultimately make the tournament field...

Yes, any team that thinks they have a chance to make the tournament field should make a bid. There is no money involved in turning in a bid. That comes later if they make the field and get a home game.

Doc

[Gangtackle11]

Yes, any team that thinks they have a chance to make the tournament field should make a bid. There is no money involved in turning in a bid. That comes later if they make the field and get a home game.

Doc

To your point. I know Villanova made a six figure bid even though they are on the outside looking in.

[WileECoyote06]

To your point. I know Villanova made a six figure bid even though they are on the outside looking in.

Six Figures? http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/tt114/xeno0000/fainting-smiley.gif~original

Is that for all games possible?

[rokamortis]

Six Figures? http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/tt114/xeno0000/fainting-smiley.gif~original

Is that for all games possible?

Once you get into the seeded games the bids don't matter unless the seeded team gets upset or didn't submit a bid.

Six figures for a first round game when your last attendance was about 6,000 does seem a little steep.

What did JMU bid last year? I know it was a lot and they ended up losing money on it. They thought Liberty was going to break the bank.

[Model Citizen]

No idea how much Dayton might bid. Maybe Detroit Flyer has the inside story. xeyebrowx

I would not be surprised if they made a strong offer. First playoff for them since D-III days. Winnable game v. Fordham, perhaps? I say go for it.

[KPSUL]

Ive been watching these swac and meac games all season and they aren't impressive at all. Your meac champion didn't even score against a winless Delaware state team until about halfway into the second quarter.
It seems that literally one third of all TDs scored have a missed or blocked pat.
When you can convert 99% of your PATs then we can talk.

Ah-oh! That leaves UNH and NOVA out.

[PurpleStreamers]

Once you get into the seeded games the bids don't matter unless the seeded team gets upset or didn't submit a bid.

Six figures for a first round game when your last attendance was about 6,000 does seem a little steep.

What did JMU bid last year? I know it was a lot and they ended up losing money on it. They thought Liberty was going to break the bank.

JMU's bid was 200k last year if I remember correctly. Of course, they also knew they were likely to be matched up/bidding against Liberty and our admin was really had their backs against the wall from two previous failures in bidding. Needless to say, our folks were pleased with the investment even though the Dukes lost.

[Missingnumber7]

Six Figures? http://i603.photobucket.com/albums/tt114/xeno0000/fainting-smiley.gif~original

Is that for all games possible?
http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/schools/james-madison/article_f363dece-190d-5352-abc0-b33017fa8ae4.html

[Sammy94]

So they're getting bids from a few schools that won't ultimately make the tournament field...

How do you think Sam makes the playoffs every year? It's not because we are always good, look at this year

[ST_Lawson]

We bid three fiddy.

[jimbo65]

Did not realize until this year that teams bid before the participants are named. Seems iffy to me but maybe that is because I am an entire life NYC metro area resident. Lets say school A and School B have pretty much equal pedigrees and are on the bubble. School A bids $50,000 and B bids $250,00, wonder who gets that bid.

[Sycamore62]

Did not realize until this year that teams bid before the participants are named. Seems iffy to me but maybe that is because I am an entire life NYC metro area resident. Lets say school A and School B have pretty much equal pedigrees and are on the bubble. School A bids $50,000 and B bids $250,00, wonder who gets that bid.

the committee doesnt know the bids prior to making the field.

[CappinHard]

the committee doesnt know the bids prior to making the field.

The committee doesn't necessarily open the bids prior to setting the field... but that doesn't mean they can't hold them up to a light and make out how many zeros are behind the dollar sign... xlolx

[clenz]

Did not realize until this year that teams bid before the participants are named. Seems iffy to me but maybe that is because I am an entire life NYC metro area resident. Lets say school A and School B have pretty much equal pedigrees and are on the bubble. School A bids $50,000 and B bids $250,00, wonder who gets that bid.
The bids aren't opened until after the field is already set.

[BEAR]

Does the committee get a cut of the bid money or something? I mean I'd be xraying those envelopes ! xlolx

[Daytripper]

They may not know the bids until after the selections, but they DO know which schools have a history of bidding high.

[WileECoyote06]

Does the committee get a cut of the bid money or something? I mean I'd be xraying those envelopes ! xlolx

The NCAA does get a big cut, 75% of your projected budget with minimums set by round.

Also, here are the bid checklist and championship manual:

https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015DIFootball_Bid_Checklist_20151012.pdf
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf

[Grizzlies82]

I think you could make an argument for JMU as the 8 seed. Also think you could make an argument for NDSU over both ISU/Sdsu. Also ISU ahead of NDSU/Sdsu. Also, Sdsu over ISU. The two conference losses will likely put Sdsu behind Ndsu and maybe even Isu. You could also argue W&M as high as 2 or 3. Also the 3 MVC teams over McNeese. Then there's PSU.

My head hurts. Still a lot of games to play.

Ming, true you can "make an argument" for anything. Yet traditionally the selection committee rewards teams for a perfect regular season. As a result, I would be very surprised to see any MVC team seeded ahead of undefeated McNeese State. It is possible yet very doubtful it would happen.

As to how to sort out where to seed the MVC teams: Having more, or less, "conference losses" is not even a consideration. What the committee will consider is how they competed head to head, if all the teams end the season with identical win / loss records.

So if ND State and Illinois State did not play they have nothing to work with there. Though So Dakota State did play them both. Then look to those games, if SD State beat IL State, advantage SDSU. If ND State beat SD State, advantage NDSU. Consequently, if they all had similar records I'd guess seeding order would be NDSU, SDSU, IL State. Though none would be seeded above an undefeated McNeese St, nor a Jacksonville St whose single loss was a last minute heart breaker versus FBS Auburn.

Again, we can make an argument for anything and we never know, anything is possible. Yet this is how the process has worked out traditionally and will likely work this year too.

[McNeese72]

The NCAA does get a big cut, 75% of your projected budget with minimums set by round.

Also, here are the bid checklist and championship manual:

https://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015DIFootball_Bid_Checklist_20151012.pdf
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf

I don't have time to go read the links but at one time it was the amount you bid and then 75% of what you make over that amount. Is it still the same?

Doc

[clenz]

I don't have time to go read the links but at one time it was the amount you bid and then 75% of what you make over that amount. Is it still the same?

Doc
Essentially the NCAA takes everything you earn and then give you a couple dimes back, it what it amounts to

[Hambone]

Oh to only have the Idaho State and Weber State debacles back.........

[Professor Chaos]

McNeese will put the committee in an interesting spot though. I think they're either the #2 seed or they're #5-#6. The 3 top MVFC teams, provided they all win on Saturday are so tightly bunched I can't see them moving only one MVFC team above McNeese if they don't decide to buy into the shiny undefeated record theory.

[dbackjon]

Oh to only have the Idaho State and Weber State debacles back.........



And for NAU to replay UC-Davis

[Grizzlies82]

McNeese will put the committee in an interesting spot though. I think they're either the #2 seed or they're #5-#6. The 3 top MVFC teams, provided they all win on Saturday are so tightly bunched I can't see them moving only one MVFC team above McNeese if they don't decide to buy into the shiny undefeated record theory.

Chaos, are you a risk taker? I have a bright shiny nickel which says an UNDEFEATED McNeese is seeded ahead of every team from the Missouri Valley conference.

[grizband]

And for NAU to replay UC-Davis
And for Montana to have Weber and Cal Poly back...

[WileECoyote06]

I don't have time to go read the links but at one time it was the amount you bid and then 75% of what you make over that amount. Is it still the same?

Doc

Oh you might be right about that. We'll go with your interpretation.

[BisonTru]

Chaos, are you a risk taker? I have a bright shiny nickel which says an UNDEFEATED McNeese is seeded ahead of every team from the Missouri Valley conference.

You're probably right, but I'd bet you one those MVFC teams make it further in the playoffs.

Why is McNeese St so much higher than Charleston Southern? Both are undefeated against the FCS. They both play in so-so conferences. Only difference is one will have a couple L's to the FBS. Maybe Troy's not great, but they still have 22 more scholarships and home field.

Would we have them this high if the LSU game loss was attached?

[Professor Chaos]

Chaos, are you a risk taker? I have a bright shiny nickel which says an UNDEFEATED McNeese is seeded ahead of every team from the Missouri Valley conference.
You're on! I have no issues writing a 5 cent check.

[JSUSoutherner]

You're probably right, but I'd bet you one those MVFC teams make it further in the playoffs.

Why is McNeese St so much higher than Charleston Southern? Both are undefeated against the FCS. They both play in so-so conferences. Only difference is one will have a couple L's to the FBS. Maybe Troy's not great, but they still have 22 more scholarships and home field.

Would we have them this high if the LSU game loss was attached?

You're probably right considering there are four MVC teams and only one McNeese. I'm interested to see how McNeese does against some real teams. I don't think they would be as high as they are now with the LSU loss unless it was close like our Auburn loss.

I really don't understand Charleston Southern being ranked so low compared to them either, and the more I think I about it the crazier I think it is people are still calling for Coastal to be placed over them. Yeah, they lost to Troy and Troy sucks, but CCU lost to CSU and CSU is the conference champion. So I don't really get it.

[Gangtackle11]

I'll take a shot at this:

UNH/Colgate
Vs. #1 Jacksonville St.

Southern Utah/SHSU
vs. #8 Portland State

UNI/Montana
vs. #5 Illinois State

NEC winner/Richmond or Villanova
vs. #4 SDSU

Coastal Carolina/The Citadel
vs. #6 William & Mary

Dayton/Eastern Illinois
vs. #3 NDSU

Chattanooga/Central Arkansas
vs. #7 Charleston Southern

Fordham/James Madison
Vs. #2 McNeese State

[Daytripper]

You're probably right considering there are four MVC teams and only one McNeese. I'm interested to see how McNeese does against some real teams. I don't think they would be as high as they are now with the LSU loss unless it was close like our Auburn loss.

I really don't understand Charleston Southern being ranked so low compared to them either, and the more I think I about it the crazier I think it is people are still calling for Coastal to be placed over them. Yeah, they lost to Troy and Troy sucks, but CCU lost to CSU and CSU is the conference champion. So I don't really get it.


McNeese has a lot to prove in the playoffs. Recent history is not on their side. A bye and a home game should put them in a position to succeed early in the playoffs. We'll see.

[Daytripper]

I'll take a shot at this:

UNH/Colgate
Vs. #1 Jacksonville St.

Southern Utah/SHSU
vs. #8 Portland State

Dayton/Eastern Illinois
vs. #5 Illinois State

UNI/Montana
vs. #4 SDSU

Coastal Carolina/The Citadel
vs. #6 William & Mary

NEC winner/Richmond or Villanova
vs. #3 NDSU

Chattanooga/Central Arkansas
vs. #7 Charleston Southern

Fordham/James Madison
Vs. #2 McNeese State


I really don't think the loser of SHSU and UCA gets in.

[Professor Chaos]

I put this together for another post about what the 6-5 teams would need to have happen in order to have a shot so I thought I'd add a bit more for upcoming matchups and throw it out there. It's not a projection just a categorization of how comfortable or uncomfortable I think teams should be feeling about their postseason chances going into their final game.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7)
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5)
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9)
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4)
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3)
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1)
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2)
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6)
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3)
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6)

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5)
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5)
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5)
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4)

Should be in
5) Richmond (7-3) vs William & Mary (8-2)
6) The Citadel (7-3) at South Carolina (3-7)
7) Fordham (9-2) on bye

In as of now but in trouble if they lose
8) Northern Iowa (6-4) vs Southern Illinois (3-7)
9) Southern Utah (7-3) vs Northern Arizona (7-3)
10) Central Arkansas (7-3) vs Sam Houston St (7-3)
11) Sam Houston St (7-3) at Central Arkansas (7-3)
12) Northern Arizona (7-3) at Southern Utah (7-3)

On the bubble but in with a win
13) Montana (6-4) at Montana St (5-5)
14) Eastern Washington (6-4) vs Portland St (8-2)
15) Villanova (6-4) at James Madison (8-2)

On the bubble but need to win and get some help
16) North Dakota (6-4) at Cal Poly (4-6)
17) New Hampshire (6-4) vs Maine (3-7)
18) Eastern Kentucky (6-4) at Eastern Illinois (6-4)
19) Eastern Illinois (6-4) vs Eastern Kentucky (6-4)
20) Bethune-Cookman (8-2) vs Florida A&M (1-9)
21) Towson (6-4) vs Rhode Island (1-9)


So that's 7 at large spots I think are already secured. At least 2 of the 5 in the 8-12 group are going to lose and put themselves in a very tenous spot but two will also win which will lock them in so, assuming UNI takes care of SIU, that's 10 spots accounted for. After that it gets interesting with 11 teams duking it out for 4 spots. I think Montana, EWU, and Nova can play themselves in with a big week 12 win regardless of what anyone else does. That leaves one spot truly up for grabs and it's anyone's guess as to who'll come out looking best between the last 8 teams.

Of course if the doomsday scenario occurs for bubble teams that I outlined here (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2286396&viewfull=1#post2286396) it opens the door for the 6 wins teams.

[Nodak78]

If UND wins they will get in. even if EWU wins.

[McNeese72]

Chaos, are you a risk taker? I have a bright shiny nickel which says an UNDEFEATED McNeese is seeded ahead of every team from the Missouri Valley conference.

We still have to win that last game. I'm sure Lamar will be sky high trying to play spoiler. You know how it is with rivalry (at least they think so) type games.

Doc

[RootinFerDukes]

Once you get into the seeded games the bids don't matter unless the seeded team gets upset or didn't submit a bid.

Six figures for a first round game when your last attendance was about 6,000 does seem a little steep.

What did JMU bid last year? I know it was a lot and they ended up losing money on it. They thought Liberty was going to break the bank.

JMU didn't lose money because a group of donors called the alpha dogs guaranteed they'd make up the difference. We had to bid aggressively knowing Liberty was the likely opponent.

[McNeese72]

You're probably right considering there are four MVC teams and only one McNeese. I'm interested to see how McNeese does against some real teams. I don't think they would be as high as they are now with the LSU loss unless it was close like our Auburn loss.



I actually wish that LSU game would have been played because our defensive coordinator Lance Guidry's game plan was to stack the line against the run and try to make Harris beat us in the air. LSU has been pretty much a one trick pony this season as shown the last two games by Alabama and Arkansas. If you can shut down Fournette they are in trouble. With the way our defense has played and with it being the first game for Harris, I think it would have been lot closer game than a lot of people would have thought. Just my opinion.

[Professor Chaos]

If UND wins they will get in. even if EWU wins.
I think UND and UNH are in a spot where its very likely they're in with a win but if their fellow bubble teams have a good day, particularly EWU, Montana, and Nova it could tighten that bubble up considerably.

[JSUSoutherner]

I actually wish that LSU game would have been played because our defensive coordinator Lance Guidry's game plan was to stack the line against the run and try to make Harris beat us in the air. LSU has been pretty much a one trick pony this season as shown the last two games by Alabama and Arkansas. If you can shut down Fournette they are in trouble. With the way our defense has played and with it being the first game for Harris, I think it would have been lot closer game than a lot of people would have thought. Just my opinion.

That would have definitely been a good game plan, but I'm sure every team had that game plan this season. Plus, Harris is no Jeremy Johnson, at least when Harris throws he throws to the right team. Definitely would have been a good game to watch I think you guys definitely would have been able to make a statement I think.

[Nodak78]

EWU has not beat a team over .500. if they win sat it would be the first.

[WileECoyote06]

I put this together for another post about what the 6-5 teams would need to have happen in order to have a shot so I thought I'd add a bit more for upcoming matchups and throw it out there. It's not a projection just a categorization of how comfortable or uncomfortable I think teams should be feeling about their postseason chances going into their final game.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7)
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5)
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9)
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4)
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3)
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1)
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2)
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6)
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3)
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6)

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5)
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5)
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5)
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4)

Should be in
5) Richmond (7-3) vs William & Mary (8-2)
6) The Citadel (7-3) at South Carolina (3-7)
7) Fordham (9-2) on bye

In as of now but in trouble if they lose
8) Northern Iowa (6-4) vs Southern Illinois (3-7)
9) Southern Utah (7-3) vs Northern Arizona (7-3)
10) Central Arkansas (7-3) vs Sam Houston St (7-3)
11) Sam Houston St (7-3) at Central Arkansas (7-3)
12) Northern Arizona (7-3) at Southern Utah (7-3)

On the bubble but in with a win
13) Montana (6-4) at Montana St (5-5)
14) Eastern Washington (6-4) vs Portland St (8-2)
15) Villanova (6-4) at James Madison (8-2)

On the bubble but need to win and get some help
16) North Dakota (6-4) at Cal Poly (4-6)
17) New Hampshire (6-4) vs Maine (3-7)
18) Eastern Kentucky (6-4) at Eastern Illinois (6-4)
19) Eastern Illinois (6-4) vs Eastern Kentucky (6-4)
20) Bethune-Cookman (8-2) vs Florida A&M (1-9)
21) Towson (6-4) vs Rhode Island (1-9)


So that's 7 at large spots I think are already secured. At least 2 of the 5 in the 8-12 group are going to lose and put themselves in a very tenous spot but two will also win which will lock them in so, assuming UNI takes care of SIU, that's 10 spots accounted for. After that it gets interesting with 11 teams duking it out for 4 spots. I think Montana, EWU, and Nova can play themselves in with a big week 12 win regardless of what anyone else does. That leaves one spot truly up for grabs and it's anyone's guess as to who'll come out looking best between the last 8 teams.

Of course if the doomsday scenario occurs for bubble teams that I outlined here (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2286396&viewfull=1#post2286396) it opens the door for the 6 wins teams.

What are the CAA tiebreaker rules. If Richmond upsets W&M and Villanova upsets JMU; then you have three teams at 6-2 in conference with head-2-head wins versus each other. Would a CAA still receive a seed? Does that tiebreaker knock out UNH and Towson, even though they're on a late season tear?

Stay tuned folks. .

[Nodak78]

What are the CAA tiebreaker rules. If Richmond upsets W&M and Villanova upsets JMU; then you have three teams at 6-2 in conference with head-2-head wins versus each other. Would a CAA still receive a seed? Does that tiebreaker knock out UNH and Towson, even though they're on a late season tear?

Stay tuned folks. .

NAU vs SUU is winner in or loser out only one will make it.

[MacThor]

JMU's only losses are a game where they lost Vad to Richmond.

They were already down two scores when Vad got hurt. His backup scored TD's on both drives Vad was out of the game. Let's not go there.

[ming01]

My projected bracket

Dayton at Chatty vs 1. Jacksonville State
Duquesne at Fordham vs 8. James Madison
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa vs. 5. Illinois State
Colgate at Richmond vs. 4. William & Mary
New Hampshire at Eastern Washington vs 3. NDSU
Southern Utah at Montana vs. 6. SDSU
Coastal Carolina at The Citadel vs. 7. Charleston Southern
Portland State at Central Arkansas vs. 2. McNeese State

[MacThor]

What are the CAA tiebreaker rules. If Richmond upsets W&M and Villanova upsets JMU; then you have three teams at 6-2 in conference with head-2-head wins versus each other. Would a CAA still receive a seed? Does that tiebreaker knock out UNH and Towson, even though they're on a late season tear?

Stay tuned folks. .

The second tie-breaker in that scenario will be "record against opponents with 3 conference losses" (JMU, possibly UNH & Towson). If still tied it moves to record against opponents w/4 conf losses, and so on. Hard to see W&M not getting the auto-bid if UR & 'Nova win - 'Nova's loss to Towson and UR's loss to UNH punish them in the tie-breaker. Ironic that W&M would get rewarded for the "worst loss."

As for playoffs, UR & JMU would get in at 8-3 for sure. 'Nova probably takes the 4th spot but the committee would love an excuse to get UNH in.

I think W&M is the only CAA team that can get a seed, and I doubt they would in your 3-way-tie scenario. It's kind of bizarre that JMU can't win the conference even if they finish with the best overall record.

[JSUSoutherner]

They were already down two scores when Vad got hurt. His backup scored TD's on both drives Vad was out of the game. Let's not go there.

True, but either way, it's not like JMU got blown away. I'm not taking anything away from Richmond, they clearly earned the win. But JMU managed to keep the game from getting out of hand and prevented a run away win and stayed competitive throughout so I'm not really counting it as a bad loss is all I'm saying. It was definitely a good win for Richmond, but not too bad a loss for JMU.

[JALMOND]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.

[Professor Chaos]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.
Portland St is locked in. Sounds like selection committee terrorism to me.

[JSUSoutherner]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.

I can't see any scenario where an 8-3 Big Sky team with two FBS wins doesn't make the playoffs. They will boot a team like the second OVC playoff hopeful or a Southland team before that IMO.

[BisonTru]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.

As others have said you guys are a lock. That WSU win is better than anything anyone in the FCS has done all year.

Also, there is no set rule how many teams can come from any given conference. 5 MVFC teams got in last year, 5 from the CAA got in I believe another time. The committee could careless how many come from an individual conference.

[ming01]

Ming, true you can "make an argument" for anything. Yet traditionally the selection committee rewards teams for a perfect regular season. As a result, I would be very surprised to see any MVC team seeded ahead of undefeated McNeese State. It is possible yet very doubtful it would happen.

As to how to sort out where to seed the MVC teams: Having more, or less, "conference losses" is not even a consideration. What the committee will consider is how they competed head to head, if all the teams end the season with identical win / loss records.

So if ND State and Illinois State did not play they have nothing to work with there. Though So Dakota State did play them both. Then look to those games, if SD State beat IL State, advantage SDSU. If ND State beat SD State, advantage NDSU. Consequently, if they all had similar records I'd guess seeding order would be NDSU, SDSU, IL State. Though none would be seeded above an undefeated McNeese St, nor a Jacksonville St whose single loss was a last minute heart breaker versus FBS Auburn.

Again, we can make an argument for anything and we never know, anything is possible. Yet this is how the process has worked out traditionally and will likely work this year too.

I think McNeese will be #2. Was just pointing out all of the different scenarios. I dont think a head to head win necessarily puts a team over another. I know that was the case before with Georgia Southern and App State.

[WileECoyote06]

The second tie-breaker in that scenario will be "record against opponents with 3 conference losses" (JMU, possibly UNH & Towson). If still tied it moves to record against opponents w/4 conf losses, and so on. Hard to see W&M not getting the auto-bid if UR & 'Nova win - 'Nova's loss to Towson and UR's loss to UNH punish them in the tie-breaker. Ironic that W&M would get rewarded for the "worst loss."

As for playoffs, UR & JMU would get in at 8-3 for sure. 'Nova probably takes the 4th spot but the committee would love an excuse to get UNH in.

I think W&M is the only CAA team that can get a seed, and I doubt they would in your 3-way-tie scenario. It's kind of bizarre that JMU can't win the conference even if they finish with the best overall record.

Thanks.

[Grizzlies82]

I think McNeese will be #2. Was just pointing out all of the different scenarios. I dont think a head to head win necessarily puts a team over another. I know that was the case before with Georgia Southern and App State.

Nothing with the selection committee seems to be set in stone. However after watching the process closely a few decade there are things you can count on;

A) An NEC, Patriot, Pioneer, etc... team better be close to perfect if they want to make the playoffs as an at large team.
B) An undefeated season by a major conference team almost always is rewarded with a very high seed (even with an unimpressive schedule).
C) If two teams have identical records, and played each other, the head to head outcome usually decides who has an edge (seeding or just making it in).
D) Late season momentum is HUGE. 7-4 can get you in. Though lose your last three games and don't count on it, but a 7 game winning streak almost ensures it.

Traditionally you can count on each of these to be a safe bet in determining who is in the field, and how they may be seeded.

[Casey_Orourke]

I just listened to an interview with PSU AD Mark Roundtree during halftime of the PSU- Pacific Lutheran basketball game. He said we have put in bids to host the first, second and quarterfinal rounds. Our current record gives us a very strong chance to make the tournament in at least the second round of eight, but of course that was up to the selection commitee.

He said the FCS and Big Sky officials he had talked to say "Mark, we really really really like your resume.

He said if he was in the room, the question he wanted to ask was...
Who else in the entire FCS had two wins against FBS teams?
Who else has defeated 4 ranked teams ( he added a win on Saturday would give us 5)?
Raise your hand if any of you can fit into that group.... Nobody else in the country can say that.

So he is optimistic of our chances.

[FargoBison]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.

I think you got some bad intel....there could be as many as four Big Sky teams in my opinion.

[JALMOND]

I just listened to an interview with PSU AD Mark Roundtree during halftime of the PSU- Pacific Lutheran basketball game. He said we have put in bids to host the first, second and quarterfinal rounds. Our current record gives us a very strong chance to make the tournament in at least the second round of eight, but of course that was up to the selection commitee.

He said the FCS and Big Sky officials he had talked to say "Mark, we really really really like your resume.

He said if he was in the room, the question he wanted to ask was...
Who else in the entire FCS had two wins against FBS teams?
Who else has defeated 4 ranked teams ( he added a win on Saturday would give us 5)?
Raise your hand if any of you can fit into that group.... Nobody else in the country can say that.

So he is optimistic of our chances.

I think there is a lot of people in the city that are still shocked at what we've done, that somehow it can still be taken away from us. If LaMarcus Aldridge can leave the Blazers, anything can happen in this city.

[melloware13]

I found Big Sky tiebreak situations, so I'll put them here:
If SUU beats NAU - Southern Utah gets Autobid
If NAU beats SUU AND PSU beats EWU - Portland State gets Autobid
If UM beats MSU, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Montana gets Autobid
If MSU beats UM, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Northern Arizona gets Autobid.

[melloware13]

By conference, this is how I see it going based on predictions for Saturday:
Big Sky (2 min./4 poss.) - SUU in, PSU in, UM on bubble, EWU on bubble
Big South (2/2) - CSU in, CCU in
CAA (3/5) - W&M in, JMU in, VU in, UR on bubble, UNH on bubble, TU on bubble
MVFC (4/4) - NDSU in, ISUr in, SDSU in, UNI in
NEC (1/1) - DU/SFU winner in (DU is my guess)
OVC (2/2) - JSU in, EIU/EKU winner in (EIU is my guess)
Patriot (1/2) - CU in, FU on bubble
Pioneer (1/1) - UD in [why couldn't I write this for the CAA xbawlingx]
Southern (1/3) - UTC in, TC on bubble, WCU on bubble
Southland (2/3) - MNSU in, UCA/SHSU winner in, UCA/SHSU loser on bubble (UCA winning is my guess)

[Grizzlies82]

I just listened to an interview with PSU AD Mark Roundtree during halftime of the PSU- Pacific Lutheran basketball game. He said we have put in bids to host the first, second and quarterfinal rounds. Our current record gives us a very strong chance to make the tournament in at least the second round of eight, but of course that was up to the selection commitee. He said the FCS and Big Sky officials he had talked to say "Mark, we really really really like your resume.

He said if he was in the room, the question he wanted to ask was...
Who else in the entire FCS had two wins against FBS teams?
Who else has defeated 4 ranked teams ( he added a win on Saturday would give us 5)?
Raise your hand if any of you can fit into that group.... Nobody else in the country can say that.

So he is optimistic of our chances.

Casey, don't worry. The only certainty in the Big Sky is that, win or lose this weekend, your Portland State Vikings are in the playoff. If they lose to E. WA, they're still 8-3 with an epic FBS beat down on No. Texas and a huge win over WA State. If they win, they should be one of the top 8 seeds and guaranteed one home game (no need to bid).

It is every other Big Sky team which is up in the air. There is no set number of teams taken from each conference. However looking at the national field, at minimum the Big Sky should have three playoff teams, and four teams may be possible. Yet including PSU there are still six of the thirteen teams contending for one of those slots.

The next certainty is that the So. Utah & No. Arizona winner will be in. If So. Utah wins they earn the conf. auto playoff slot. If No. Arizona wins they're 8-3, and finishing with a 5 game winning streak. Though whichever team loses will be sitting uncomfortably on the fence with several other teams at 7-4.


If So. Utah loses (to NAU) they're in trouble at 7-4. Their best win would be over Big Sky's #6 team, Weber St (5-5), also with wins over #8, 9, 10, 12, & 13 teams.

If No. Arizona loses (to SUU) they're on the bubble at 7-4. Their best wins would be over Big Sky's #5, E. WA (6-4) and #6, Weber St (5-5), and a PAC 12 loss to Arizona.

If E. Washington wins (beat Portland) then EWU is still suspect at 7-4. They'd have a nice PSU win & a #6 Weber (5-5) win, some tradition, but not much else.

If No. Dakota wins (beat Cal Poly) they're on the bubble at 7-4. They have a Portland (8-2) win and FBS Wyoming (1-9). These certainly help, but is it enough?

If Montana wins (beat MT St) they are another at 7-4. Yet UM holds wins over No. Arizona, E. WA., No. Dakota, as well as No. Dakota State. These wins will get them in.


So don't sweat it on PSU. As of today they are the only team certain to be in the playoffs. Two or three of the other teams which win this weekend have a shot at it too.

Though on bidding for home games don't hold your breath. The high bid wins the right to host, and the bid is a guaranteed minimum to the NCAA. So if PSU bids $200,000 but only sells $100,000 in tickets the school lost a hundred grand. So I doubt the school will want to risk very much on a guaranteed bid considering the limited PSU fan support. That is my guess.

[Grizzlies82]

Ugly rumors we are hearing here in Portland. Mainly, the committee will only take two teams from the Big Sky, the winner of SUU/NAU and either Montana OR Portland State. If the Viks beat EWU, they are in. If the Viks lose and the Griz win, Montana will go over Portland State. Does not seem right to me, but I am still trying to figure out what happened in 2006. I guess the committee can do whatever they want, but any scenario that takes the Griz over the Viks seems flat out wrong.

As I just posted to Casey. There is no way Portland State isn't already in the playoffs. Just can't see it not happening. With a loss at E. WA they're still 8-3. Yet even if they ended at 7-4 (which they can't) the win over PAC 12 Washington State, and the 60 point win over FBS No. Texas, would have PSU in the playoffs this year. They have impressed.

Further looking around the country this would be a very odd year to only place two Big Sky teams in the playoffs. None of them necessarily appear ready to win the championship. Yet there is a half dozen Big Sky teams who can make a decent case when compared to the resumes that many of the other teams around the country have. Big Sky won't get five or six in but have a great shot at three or four.

[JMUNJ08]

I found Big Sky tiebreak situations, so I'll put them here:
If SUU beats NAU - Southern Utah gets Autobid
If NAU beats SUU AND PSU beats EWU - Portland State gets Autobid
If UM beats MSU, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Montana gets Autobid
If MSU beats UM, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Northern Arizona gets Autobid.

So Portland State only gets it if UM & MSU tie or their game is cancelled? Or do one of the last two switch to an EWU win?

[Grizzlies82]

I found Big Sky tiebreak situations, so I'll put them here:
If SUU beats NAU - Southern Utah gets Autobid
If NAU beats SUU AND PSU beats EWU - Portland State gets Autobid
If UM beats MSU, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Montana gets Autobid
If MSU beats UM, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Northern Arizona gets Autobid.

Mellow, you're close but the last two results require E. Washington to beat Portland St (not as shown above).

[Casey_Orourke]

I found Big Sky tiebreak situations, so I'll put them here:
If SUU beats NAU - Southern Utah gets Autobid
If NAU beats SUU AND PSU beats EWU - Portland State gets Autobid
If UM beats MSU, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Montana gets Autobid
If MSU beats UM, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Northern Arizona gets Autobid.

How can Montana get the autobid when Portland State also wins. PSU beat Montana in a head to head match-up.

I think you mean if PSU loses.

[JALMOND]

If UM beats MSU, NAU beats SUU, AND PSU beats EWU - Montana gets Autobid

Doing further research, this is the scenario that has Vik fans worried (assuming, that mello meant EWU beats PSU). UM gets the autobid so there is no head to head with PSU. NAU wins, knocking SUU out of the picture. Given this, PSU would have lost two of their final three games against teams not in the playoffs, and also would have their win as a one point win at home against another non-playoff team. The issue, does our two FBS wins trump how we would end the season?

[Grizzlies82]

One last thought on the Big Sky Conference Championship. I am not stating that So. Utah is a bad team. Nor did they select their conference schedule. Yet note how screwed up these oversized conference "Championships" are. This year is the poster child for the really messed up outcome in this 13 team conference configuration.


This week if Southern Utah (7-3) beats Northern Arizona (7-3), SUU will be the Big Sky Champs with only one conference loss.

In 'earning' this championship they will have beat only one of the top five teams (Northern Arizona) in the conference!

Let that sink in for a minute. They are champs having beaten only one other of the top five conference teams (and having played just two).

With a roll of the scheduling dice So. Utah can pick up the championship honor having beaten the #4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, and #13 team in this 13 team conference.

Meanwhile if Portland State also wins they will have a 9-2 record (including a win over So. Utah) and have played and beaten 3 of the top 5 teams in the Big Sky.


Again, this wouldn't be Southern Utah's fault. They would have played who was scheduled and just lost once. Yet this championship outcome is clearly wrong. The Big Sky will be better once they return to a size where each conference opponent plays each other and a real champ is decided. Until then we are subject to this sort of insanity.

Now is the time. Write your congressman. Send a letter to the editor. Call your Mother (no really, call her she loves you). Shout from the windows. Just make this lunacy stop!

[Casey_Orourke]

Though on bidding for home games don't hold your breath. The high bid wins the right to host, and the bid is a guaranteed minimum to the NCAA. So if PSU bids $200,000 but only sells $100,000 in tickets the school lost a hundred grand. So I doubt the school will want to risk very much on a guaranteed bid considering the limited PSU fan support. That is my guess.

I think that with the chance of continued national exposure for the PSU brand, especially if we win and continue, will be such a plus for the school, it would gladly eat the cost of $100,000. Any self-advertising on such a high level would cost a hell of a lot more in the long run.

[Grizzlies82]

Doing further research, this is the scenario that has Vik fans worried (assuming, that mello meant EWU beats PSU). UM gets the autobid so there is no head to head with PSU. NAU wins, knocking SUU out of the picture. Given this, PSU would have lost two of their final three games against teams not in the playoffs, and also would have their win as a one point win at home against another non-playoff team. The issue, does our two FBS wins trump how we would end the season?

JALMOND, Yes if that unfolds Montana would win the auto bid even though they lost to Portland (UM just 2 conf loss & PSU 3 conf losses). Also losing two of your last three games is an awful way to approach the playoffs.

However, PSU's TWO FBS WINS will override everything you've outlined above. Further, PSU is still 8-3 on the year with another loss and there are not enough other teams with three or fewer losses to fill the playoff bracket. Your Vikings are in regardless of the outcome of the game with Eastern.

If Portland State doesn't get in I will send you $20 to go buy to beers to cry in. If Montana doesn't get in will you do the same?

[Casey_Orourke]

JALMOND, Yes if that unfolds Montana would win the auto bid even though they lost to Portland (UM just 2 conf loss & PSU 3 conf losses). Also losing two of your last three games is an awful way to approach the playoffs.

However, PSU's TWO FBS WINS will override everything you've outlined above. Further, PSU is still 8-3 on the year with another loss and there are not enough other teams with three or fewer losses to fill the playoff bracket. Your Vikings are in regardless of the outcome of the game with Eastern.

If Portland State doesn't get in I will send you $20 to go buy to beers to cry in. If Montana doesn't get in will you do the same?

I'll take that. If PSU doesn't get in, $20 will buy a lot of beer here in China

[Big_Fan]

I'll take that. If PSU doesn't get in, $20 will buy a lot of beer here in China

How are things up there? I am in Indonesia :)

We used to live in Taiwan... miss it terribly. We love the Chinese culture. Indonesia has its perks but Jakarta is seriously congested, and less than sanitary.

We will be here for a few more years in all probability.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

How are things up there? I am in Indonesia :)

We used to live in Taiwan... miss it terribly. We love the Chinese culture. Indonesia has its perks but Jakarta is seriously congested, and less than sanitary.

We will be here for a few more years in all probability.

And hello from sunny Tanzania! If JMU can get past the first round (preferably as an #8 seed with a win over VU and some help), then I'll be back for the rest of the playoffs. Then on to the Republic of Georgia for a couple years starting next summer (No Citidog, not that Georgia, the ex-communist one... xthumbsupx)

I have a good friend and USAID colleague stationed in Indonesia - heard terrible things about traffic there. And if a development professional tells you traffic is bad, it's REALLY bad!

[Casey_Orourke]

How are things up there? I am in Indonesia :)

We used to live in Taiwan... miss it terribly. We love the Chinese culture. Indonesia has its perks but Jakarta is seriously congested, and less than sanitary.

We will be here for a few more years in all probability.

We are in Suzhou. Mainland is completely different from mainland. In Taiwan you have an open internet, China we have the "Great Firewall" and VPN cat and mouse games. Also we have more than a few stretches of days where the pollution levels were so bad we can barely see 10 feet.

We are thinking of spending another school year here, sell our two homes in NE China, then head back to the states, put our daughter in school and enjoy life.

[PAllen]

My projected bracket

Dayton at Chatty vs 1. Jacksonville State
Duquesne at Fordham vs 8. James Madison
Eastern Illinois at Northern Iowa vs. 5. Illinois State
Colgate at Richmond vs. 4. William & Mary
New Hampshire at Eastern Washington vs 3. NDSU
Southern Utah at Montana vs. 6. SDSU
Coastal Carolina at The Citadel vs. 7. Charleston Southern
Portland State at Central Arkansas vs. 2. McNeese State

Best one I've seen so far.

[BEAR]

By conference, this is how I see it going based on predictions for Saturday:
Big Sky (2 min./4 poss.) - SUU in, PSU in, UM on bubble, EWU on bubble
Big South (2/2) - CSU in, CCU in
CAA (3/5) - W&M in, JMU in, VU in, UR on bubble, UNH on bubble, TU on bubble
MVFC (4/4) - NDSU in, ISUr in, SDSU in, UNI in
NEC (1/1) - DU/SFU winner in (DU is my guess)
OVC (2/2) - JSU in, EIU/EKU winner in (EIU is my guess)
Patriot (1/2) - CU in, FU on bubble
Pioneer (1/1) - UD in [why couldn't I write this for the CAA xbawlingx]
Southern (1/3) - UTC in, TC on bubble, WCU on bubble
Southland (2/3) - MNSU in, UCA/SHSU winner in, UCA/SHSU loser on bubble (UCA winning is my guess)

I'm glad so many are picking UCA to win but SHSU is hitting 49 points per game conference. UCA's defense is pretty good but sometimes its about game plans and SHSU does have a great formula for offense. If UCA loses then both teams would be 7-4. Wonder if SLC would get 3 teams in. xcoffeex

[Big_Fan]

We are in Suzhou. Mainland is completely different from mainland. In Taiwan you have an open internet, China we have the "Great Firewall" and VPN cat and mouse games. Also we have more than a few stretches of days where the pollution levels were so bad we can barely see 10 feet.

We are thinking of spending another school year here, sell our two homes in NE China, then head back to the states, put our daughter in school and enjoy life.

Oh yeah... I know Taiwan is a lot different. We have been to Shanghai. We would like to go back to Taiwan at some point. Jakarta makes more dollars and sense, but Taipei is just so great...

Trust me though... you don't want to swap air quality with Jakarta. Be happy with what you have.

...and as JMU2K_Dukedog alluded to... nowhere compares with Jakarta in terms of traffic jam. 28M people in the metro with an infrastructure built for 100k, and no MRT or even workable bus system... scary stuff. They are building an MRT system but it will be years before it is up and running. The N-S line is supposed to open in 2 years, with the E-W line to follow in another 4. It will take an outer loop and some connectors to make a huge impact on traffic, and that will probably be decades away.

[Big_Fan]

And hello from sunny Tanzania! If JMU can get past the first round (preferably as an #8 seed with a win over VU and some help), then I'll be back for the rest of the playoffs. Then on to the Republic of Georgia for a couple years starting next summer (No Citidog, not that Georgia, the ex-communist one... xthumbsupx)

I have a good friend and USAID colleague stationed in Indonesia - heard terrible things about traffic there. And if a development professional tells you traffic is bad, it's REALLY bad!

Traffic is incredibly bad here... as in it can take 2 hours to go 8 kilometers during evening hours. It would be faster to walk or cycle if that were an option...unfortunately there are no paths that are safe.

Be safe in Tanzania... How is life there these days?

[Sycamore62]

This is how I would get the 10 best teams in the country in the bracket and also prevent a 1 conference championship.

Missouri St vs SIU @ #1 NDSU
WIU vs ISUb @ #3 ISUr
USD vs YSU @ #5 SDSU
Dayton vs NEC AQ @ #7 UNI

Everybody else would be on the other half of the bracket

[Daytripper]

I'm glad so many are picking UCA to win but SHSU is hitting 49 points per game conference. UCA's defense is pretty good but sometimes its about game plans and SHSU does have a great formula for offense. If UCA loses then both teams would be 7-4. Wonder if SLC would get 3 teams in. xcoffeex


Doubtful. There would have to be a lot of significant losses for other bubble teams to get 3 SLC teams in. It could happen though.

[JALMOND]

JALMOND, Yes if that unfolds Montana would win the auto bid even though they lost to Portland (UM just 2 conf loss & PSU 3 conf losses). Also losing two of your last three games is an awful way to approach the playoffs.

However, PSU's TWO FBS WINS will override everything you've outlined above. Further, PSU is still 8-3 on the year with another loss and there are not enough other teams with three or fewer losses to fill the playoff bracket. Your Vikings are in regardless of the outcome of the game with Eastern.

If Portland State doesn't get in I will send you $20 to go buy to beers to cry in. If Montana doesn't get in will you do the same?

I certainly hope we're in, we'll see next week. Barnum is a really conservative coach, I hope he doesn't head in to EWU thinking the playoffs are in the bag. Like I said before, if you leave your fate in the hands of the committee, you probably will not like the results.

[kalm]

I put this together for another post about what the 6-5 teams would need to have happen in order to have a shot so I thought I'd add a bit more for upcoming matchups and throw it out there. It's not a projection just a categorization of how comfortable or uncomfortable I think teams should be feeling about their postseason chances going into their final game.

Autobids as they currently stand (locks)
1) Jacksonville St (9-1) vs Murray St (3-7)
2) McNeese St (9-0) at Lamar (5-5)
3) North Dakota St (8-2) vs Missouri St (1-9)
4) Portland St (8-2) at Eastern Washington (6-4)
5) William & Mary (8-2) at Richmond (7-3)
6) Charleston Southern (9-1) at Alabama (9-1)
7) Chattanooga (8-2) at Florida St (8-2)
8) Dayton (10-0) at Drake (4-6)
9) Duquesne (7-3) vs St Francis (6-3)
10) Colgate (6-4) vs Bucknell (4-6)

At large locks
1) South Dakota St (8-2) at Western Illinois (5-5)
2) Illinois St (8-2) vs South Dakota (5-5)
3) Coastal Carolina (9-1) at Liberty (5-5)
4) James Madison (8-2) vs Villanova (6-4)

Should be in
5) Richmond (7-3) vs William & Mary (8-2)
6) The Citadel (7-3) at South Carolina (3-7)
7) Fordham (9-2) on bye

In as of now but in trouble if they lose
8) Northern Iowa (6-4) vs Southern Illinois (3-7)
9) Southern Utah (7-3) vs Northern Arizona (7-3)
10) Central Arkansas (7-3) vs Sam Houston St (7-3)
11) Sam Houston St (7-3) at Central Arkansas (7-3)
12) Northern Arizona (7-3) at Southern Utah (7-3)

On the bubble but in with a win
13) Montana (6-4) at Montana St (5-5)
14) Eastern Washington (6-4) vs Portland St (8-2)
15) Villanova (6-4) at James Madison (8-2)

On the bubble but need to win and get some help
16) North Dakota (6-4) at Cal Poly (4-6)
17) New Hampshire (6-4) vs Maine (3-7)
18) Eastern Kentucky (6-4) at Eastern Illinois (6-4)
19) Eastern Illinois (6-4) vs Eastern Kentucky (6-4)
20) Bethune-Cookman (8-2) vs Florida A&M (1-9)
21) Towson (6-4) vs Rhode Island (1-9)


So that's 7 at large spots I think are already secured. At least 2 of the 5 in the 8-12 group are going to lose and put themselves in a very tenous spot but two will also win which will lock them in so, assuming UNI takes care of SIU, that's 10 spots accounted for. After that it gets interesting with 11 teams duking it out for 4 spots. I think Montana, EWU, and Nova can play themselves in with a big week 12 win regardless of what anyone else does. That leaves one spot truly up for grabs and it's anyone's guess as to who'll come out looking best between the last 8 teams.

Of course if the doomsday scenario occurs for bubble teams that I outlined here (http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?176414-MVFC-Playoff-Outlook&p=2286396&viewfull=1#post2286396) it opens the door for the 6 wins teams.

That's some nice work here, thanks.

As pointed out elsewhere in the thread, EWU at 7-4 would only have one quality win (PSU). The next best wins would be against likely 6-5 Weber and UNC. But compare our resume with Richmond who you have listed as "should be in" and I don't see a huge difference. A 7-4 Richmond would have only one quality win and then not another win against a .500 or better team. Their SOS isn't great either at 57 compared with Eastern's 21. You're basically replacing Oregon, UNI, and MSU with Maryland, VMI, and Hampton.

I'd say both EWU and UND (SOS 46, FBS win, wins over Portland State and Montana) have better resumes than Richmond and probably the Citadel as well.

[Professor Chaos]

That's some nice work here, thanks.

As pointed out elsewhere in the thread, EWU at 7-4 would only have one quality win (PSU). The next best wins would be against likely 6-5 Weber and UNC. But compare our resume with Richmond who you have listed as "should be in" and I don't see a huge difference. A 7-4 Richmond would have only one quality win and then not another win against a .500 or better team. Their SOS isn't great either at 57 compared with Eastern's 21. You're basically replacing Oregon, UNI, and MSU with Maryland, VMI, and Hampton.

I'd say both EWU and UND (SOS 46, FBS win, wins over Portland State and Montana) have better resumes than Richmond and probably the Citadel as well.
Yeah, Richmond and The Citadel I think are two teams that at 7-4 and shouldn't feel great about their chances but I think they "should" be in even at 7-4 just because I don't really see a ton of strong 7 win teams out there to supplant them. Say that UNI, Montana, and Nova all win they're obviously strong enough 7 win teams to get in pretty comfortably. Include Fordham, the winner of NAU/SUU, and the winner of UCA/SHSU and you only have 10 at large bids accounted for. That means that 4 teams out of the group of EWU, UND, UNH, the winner of EIU/EKU, BCU, Towson, the loser of NAU/SUU, and the loser of UCA/SHSU are going to have to pass up Richmond or The Citadel which I don't see unless every possible bubble team that can win does.

Likewise, of that group of teams I mentioned to pass up Richmond or The Citadel I think even a 1 quality win EWU team looks better than a lot of them (like saw a 7-4 Towson, a 9-2 BCU, or a 7-4 UCA/SHSU).

[kalm]

Yeah, Richmond and The Citadel I think are two teams that at 7-4 and shouldn't feel great about their chances but I think they "should" be in even at 7-4 just because I don't really see a ton of strong 7 win teams out there to supplant them. Say that UNI, Montana, and Nova all win they're obviously strong enough 7 win teams to get in pretty comfortably. Include Fordham, the winner of NAU/SUU, and the winner of UCA/SHSU and you only have 10 at large bids accounted for. That means that 4 teams out of the group of EWU, UND, UNH, the winner of EIU/EKU, BCU, Towson, the loser of NAU/SUU, and the loser of UCA/SHSU are going to have to pass up Richmond or The Citadel which I don't see.

Likewise, of that group of teams I mentioned to pass up Richmond or The Citadel I think even a 1 quality win EWU team looks better than a lot of those teams (like saw a 7-4 Towson, a 9-2 BCU, or a 7-4 UCA/SHSU).

fair points, but again, what about Richmond and Cid's resume's place them ahead of EWU and UND?

[Professor Chaos]

fair points, but again, what about Richmond and Cid's resume's place them ahead of EWU and UND?
I think if all 4 of those teams end up 7-4 they're going to be pretty tightly bunched but they would likely all get in. Of the 4 I'd say The Citadel and Richmond would have the most to worry about. The Citadel doesn't have that signature win that the other three do (JMU for Richmond and PSU for EWU and UND) and Richmond would be on a 3 game losing streak.

[Gangtackle11]

Richmond loses & Nova/UNH win then the Spiders will be stuck in their 3 game losing streak web. They will be the lesser of probably 4 CAA teams (Towson probably too) at 7-4.

Hypothetically speaking:

7-4 Nova would have wins over Richmond, JMU, Fordham, & believe or not the probable Ivy League champ Penn. They will be on a 4 game win streak.

7-4 UNH would have wins over Richmond & PL champ Colgate and will be on 4 game win streak.

7-4 Towson would have wins over Villanova & potential NEC champ St. Francis (PA)

7-4 Richmond would have their win at James Madison and will be on a 3 game losing streak including losses to UNH & Villanova.

Go Nova!

[kalm]

Possible 7-4 teams (and BCU), SOS, quality wins:

UNI 3 SDSU, EWU, USD
Montana 30 NDSU, UND, NAU, EWU
UND 46 Wyoming, PSU,
NAU 37 EWU, Weber
EWU 21 PSU, Weber
UR 57 JMU
Citadel 38 Mercer, Samford
SUU 16 Weber
Nova 38 Richmond, Fordham, JMU
Towson 31 Nova, St. Francis
UNH 62 Richmond, Colgate
CAU 68 Lamar
SHSU 86 ICW
EIU 25 EKU
EKU 54 EIU
BCU 96 NCCU, SCSU

[kalm]

Possible 7-4 teams, SOS, quality wins:

UNI 3 SDSU, EWU, USD
Montana 30 NDSU, UND, NAU, EWU
UND 46 Wyoming, PSU,
NAU 37 EWU, Weber
EWU 21 PSU, Weber
UR 57 JMU
SUU 16 Weber
Nova 38 Richmond, Fordham, JMU
Towson 31 Nova, St. Francis
UNH 62 Richmond, Colgate
CAU 68 Lamar
SHSU 86 ICW
EIU 25 EKU
EKU 54 EIU

I would say UNI is a lock.

Montana, UND, and Nova are all looking good.

CAU, SHSU, EIU, EKU, and BCU would be in serious trouble.

[Daytripper]

I would say UNI is a lock.

Montana, UND, and Nova are all looking good.

CAU, SHSU, EIU, EKU, and BCU would be in serious trouble.


That is why the SHSU v. UCA game is actually a playoff game. Loser goes home.

[Sammy94]

I'm glad so many are picking UCA to win but SHSU is hitting 49 points per game conference.

I'm just glad this guy will be back this week, he was sorely missed at McNeese.

http://image.cdnllnwnl.xosnetwork.com/pics33/400/BQ/BQDNKJHQPQMGOPQ.20141214132736.jpg

[Daytripper]

I'm just glad this guy will be back this week, he was sorely missed at McNeese.

http://image.cdnllnwnl.xosnetwork.com/pics33/400/BQ/BQDNKJHQPQMGOPQ.20141214132736.jpg


I honestly don't think he would have made a difference in that game.

[ElCid]

Possible 7-4 teams (and BCU), SOS, quality wins:

UNI 3 SDSU, EWU, USD
Montana 30 NDSU, UND, NAU, EWU
UND 46 Wyoming, PSU,
NAU 37 EWU, Weber
EWU 21 PSU, Weber
UR 57 JMU
Citadel 38 Mercer, Samford
SUU 16 Weber
Nova 38 Richmond, Fordham, JMU
Towson 31 Nova, St. Francis
UNH 62 Richmond, Colgate
CAU 68 Lamar
SHSU 86 ICW
EIU 25 EKU
EKU 54 EIU
BCU 96 NCCU, SCSU

Where are you getting the SOS from? And how are you figuring Mercer and not WCU for quality win for The Citadel. Massey (not composite) has WCU at 23 and Samford at 45 and Mercer at 55. Sagarin has them at WCU 26, Samford 33, and Mercer at 47. In both ratings WCU are ranked ahead of E Wash and ND and N Arizona. Just curious.

[F'N Hawks]

Where are you getting the SOS from? And how are you figuring Mercer and not WCU for quality win for The Citadel. Massey (not composite) has WCU at 23 and Samford at 45 and Mercer at 55. Sagarin has them at WCU 26, Samford 33, and Mercer at 47. In both ratings WCU are ranked ahead of E Wash and ND and N Arizona. Just curious.

Which makes me thankful that humans actually look at this.

[kalm]

Where are you getting the SOS from? And how are you figuring Mercer and not WCU for quality win for The Citadel. Massey (not composite) has WCU at 23 and Samford at 45 and Mercer at 55. Sagarin has them at WCU 26, Samford 33, and Mercer at 47. In both ratings WCU are ranked ahead of E Wash and ND and N Arizona. Just curious.

My bad. I'll fix it when I get in front of a computer.

But if those are Massey's ratings...oooof.

- - - Updated - - -


Where are you getting the SOS from? And how are you figuring Mercer and not WCU for quality win for The Citadel. Massey (not composite) has WCU at 23 and Samford at 45 and Mercer at 55. Sagarin has them at WCU 26, Samford 33, and Mercer at 47. In both ratings WCU are ranked ahead of E Wash and ND and N Arizona. Just curious.

My bad. I'll fix it when I get in front of a computer.

But if those are Massey's ratings...oooof.

[Grizzlies82]

Possible 7-4 teams (and BCU), SOS, quality wins:

UNI 3 SDSU, EWU, USD
Montana 30 NDSU, UND, NAU, EWU
UND 46 Wyoming, PSU,
NAU 37 EWU, Weber
EWU 21 PSU, Weber
UR 57 JMU
Citadel 38 Mercer, Samford
SUU 16 Weber
Nova 38 Richmond, Fordham, JMU
Towson 31 Nova, St. Francis
UNH 62 Richmond, Colgate
CAU 68 Lamar
SHSU 86 ICW
EIU 25 EKU
EKU 54 EIU
BCU 96 NCCU, SCSU

Don't claim to understand how strength of schedule is calculated. Yet it seems odd Southern Utah (SUU) would show a strong SOS ranking.

Bolstering the SOS is that they did play an FBS Utah St, as well as So Dakota St, and Portland St.. However they lost each of those games.

Otherwise their schedule included essentially only the bottom half of the 13 team Big Sky conference. They played the Big Sky's #6, 8, 9, 10, 12, & 13 ranked teams, and had another non-conference game against a school named Brevard College (DII, DIII, or NAIA?). So does playing those three strong teams pump up a teams SOS that much?

[Nodak78]

I don't know how they figure the SOS schedule. But I agree Not sure how SUU has that strong of a schedule rating.

[PantherRob82]

I could definitely live with this, but no way it happens without breaking the Internet...

http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fcs-football/bracketology

Montana vs Duquesne at 1 Jax St
SDSU vs 'Nova at 8 Chuck South

Fordham vs. EIU at 5 McNeese
Portland vs. Citadel at 4 NDSU

SHSU vs. Colgate at 3 ISUr
JMU vs. UND at 6 William and Mary

UNA vs. UNH at 7 Chatty
UNI vs. Dayton at 2 Coastal

So many kinds of wrong

[Grizalltheway]

We are in Suzhou. Mainland is completely different from mainland. In Taiwan you have an open internet, China we have the "Great Firewall" and VPN cat and mouse games. Also we have more than a few stretches of days where the pollution levels were so bad we can barely see 10 feet.

We are thinking of spending another school year here, sell our two homes in NE China, then head back to the states, put our daughter in school and enjoy life.

Funny, I remember saying to myself during the NDSU game "so this is what it's like to live in China".

[katstrapper]

I'm glad so many are picking UCA to win but SHSU is hitting 49 points per game conference. UCA's defense is pretty good but sometimes its about game plans and SHSU does have a great formula for offense. If UCA loses then both teams would be 7-4. Wonder if SLC would get 3 teams in. xcoffeex

If SHSU wins then the Kats will be 8-3 and UCA 7-4 overall. Both would be 7-2 in conference.

[Sycamore62]

Funny, I remember saying to myself during the NDSU game "so this is what it's like to live in China".

plus being regular height makes the people there harder to see.

[kalm]

Don't claim to understand how strength of schedule is calculated. Yet it seems odd Southern Utah (SUU) would show a strong SOS ranking.

Bolstering the SOS is that they did play an FBS Utah St, as well as So Dakota St, and Portland St.. However they lost each of those games.

Otherwise their schedule included essentially only the bottom half of the 13 team Big Sky conference. They played the Big Sky's #6, 8, 9, 10, 12, & 13 ranked teams, and had another non-conference game against a school named Brevard College (DII, DIII, or NAIA?). So does playing those three strong teams pump up a teams SOS that much?

At first blush, yes, but their opponents have quite a few wins. USU, WSU, and UNC each have five and even Poly is now at 4. And as mentioned, there's PSU and SDSU.

[abc123]

At first blush, yes, but their opponents have quite a few wins. USU, WSU, and UNC each have five and even Poly is now at 4. And as mentioned, there's PSU and SDSU.
I'm not real sure how Massey has SUU with a SOS of 16 and UND at 51. They had 6 common opponents. Here are their 5 different opponents with overall Massey ratings:

SUU
SDSU (80)Utah State (85 - FBS)
NAU (134)
Sac St (268)
Brevard (665)

UND
NDSU (77)
Montana (138)
Wyoming (204 - FBS)
ISU (271)
Drake (326)

You can make 3 pairs that match up almost identical, basically making them a wash (SDSU/NDSU, NAU/Montana and Sac St/ISU).
The only two with huge differences are Utah State/Wyoming and Drake/Brevard, one going in the favor of each school. How does that give bump SUU's schedule up so much higher?

[Schism55]

Absolutely zero need to include Bethune Cookman in these discussions, NO way they get in.

[thebootfitter]

I'm not real sure how Massey has SUU with a SOS of 16 and UND at 51. They had 6 common opponents. Here are their 5 different opponents with overall Massey ratings:
I vaguely recall something about sub-DI teams not being counted in the SOS. But I may be thinking of something else. Since Massey ranks all schools down to DIII, he should be able to include them in his SOS calculations.

Another guess is that the SOS may be calculated against the opponents score at the time the game was played. That could certainly contribute to some difference.

Otherwise, I've got nothin', because the average ranking of UND's non-common opponents is just over 200, while SUU's is over 280.

[kalm]

I'm not real sure how Massey has SUU with a SOS of 16 and UND at 51. They had 6 common opponents. Here are their 5 different opponents with overall Massey ratings:

SUU
SDSU (80)Utah State (85 - FBS)
NAU (134)
Sac St (268)
Brevard (665)

UND
NDSU (77)
Montana (138)
Wyoming (204 - FBS)
ISU (271)
Drake (326)

You can make 3 pairs that match up almost identical, basically making them a wash (SDSU/NDSU, NAU/Montana and Sac St/ISU).
The only two with huge differences are Utah State/Wyoming and Drake/Brevard, one going in the favor of each school. How does that give bump SUU's schedule up so much higher?

good point and I don't know. That's why computers should be a small part of the tool kit.

[JSUSoutherner]

So many kinds of wrong

Coastal at 2? Chatty at 7? Umm....

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/11/17/125320b03f5315702bfbc59105e835d4.jpg

[FargoBison]

Coastal at 2? Chatty at 7? Umm....

http://images.tapatalk-cdn.com/15/11/17/125320b03f5315702bfbc59105e835d4.jpg

CCU at #2 would break AGS.

[JSUSoutherner]

CCU at #2 would break AGS.
I'm pretty sure Coastal in the top 8 right now would break AGS.
I really really REALLY don't understand the logic of them above Charleston Southern. But some people seem to think it should happen.

[abc123]

good point and I don't know. That's why computers should be a small part of the tool kit.
Agree fully.

One other computer ranking that has stood out is that Sagarin has the Big Sky as the #2 FCS conference yet people are down on them having 2-3 at-large bids. Lots of numbers for anyone to make whatever point they want.

[ElCid]

Which makes me thankful that humans actually look at this.

Yeah I know what you mean. I mean, WCU isn't receiving as many votes in the human polls as E Wash or N Arizona. The human polls must be pretty accurate. I mean, more accurate than the computers. Good thing we are still receiving more votes in the human polls than UND. Whew! Oh but that is not what you meant, was it? They must be inaccurate...in that case.

I don't hang my hat 100% on computer or human polls. I do cross check them to validate my position though. If I am off a bit I will investigate further to make sure I have not missed something or introduced something based on my biases, biases which are always included in human polls. And when we are talking about SOS, we can talk subjectively about who seems better based on all those intangibles that were not included in the computer polls, like losing a starting QB or a game that was played in a downpour. Or we can talk simply about the objective results of the computer polls and SOS (which use algorithms that were created in a subjective way). But at least all teams are subjected to the same algorithms so the result is objective in using those same rules.

[ElCid]

I'm not real sure how Massey has SUU with a SOS of 16 and UND at 51. They had 6 common opponents. Here are their 5 different opponents with overall Massey ratings:

SUU
SDSU (80)
Utah State (85 - FBS)
NAU (134)
Sac St (268)
Brevard (665)

UND
NDSU (77)
Montana (138)
Wyoming (204 - FBS)
ISU (271)
Drake (326)

You can make 3 pairs that match up almost identical, basically making them a wash (SDSU/NDSU, NAU/Montana and Sac St/ISU).
The only two with huge differences are Utah State/Wyoming and Drake/Brevard, one going in the favor of each school. How does that give bump SUU's schedule up so much higher?

Because that is not exactly how it works. You just can't do an average of each one of a team's opponent's rankings and come up with a score to compare. You would really need to use their opponent's "rating" not their rank. NDSU is ranked 1 and their rating is 1.58 and you compare them to say SDSU who is ranked 4 but has a rating of 1.56, there is not much of a difference in rating. To go even further, PSU has a ranking of 12 but a rating of 1.31. In other words it is not linear. Wyoming has a rank of 204 and a rating of 0.77. Sac St is 258 and 0.51. In an extreme example if 100 teams were all rated the same 1.40 and the 101st ranked team was rated 1.41 and you played them, based on their rank it would not look too good but in reality they are only marginally worse than the first 100 teams and your ranking would not be changed very much.

Hope that made sense.

[andthehomeofthe-BIZON-]

Yeah I know what you mean. I mean, WCU isn't receiving as many votes in the human polls as E Wash or N Arizona. The human polls must be pretty accurate. I mean, more accurate than the computers. Good thing we are still receiving more votes in the human polls than UND. Whew! Oh but that is not what you meant, was it? They must be inaccurate...in that case.

I don't hang my hat 100% on computer or human polls. I do cross check them to validate my position though. If I am off a bit I will investigate further to make sure I have not missed something or introduced something based on my biases, biases which are always included in human polls. And when we are talking about SOS, we can talk subjectively about who seems better based on all those intangibles that were not included in the computer polls, like losing a starting QB or a game that was played in a downpour. Or we can talk simply about the objective results of the computer polls and SOS (which use algorithms that were created in a subjective way). But at least all teams are subjected to the same algorithms so the result is objective in using those same rules.

Validating an opinion with facts. Using multiple metrics to come to conclusions. How dare you sir, How dare you....

[ElCid]

So here are the possible 7-4 teams. I put the top 5 teams of each column in green, the bottom 5 in Orange. Black is everyone in the middle. The final sort was AGS Poll. WCU, SHSU, and S Utah each have 1 sub Div I W, which I just realized about SU. Not sure how that will play out if they lose Saturday. It obviously does not take the final SOS into consideration. There will be a bunch of movement there. The thing to remember in the difference between Sagarin and Massey is that Sagarin does not take <Div I games into account in rating or the SOS but Massey does. And as mentioned above, this is simply the rank of the teams schedule. Theoretically, SHSU could be very close to Northern Iowa is actual strengths of opponents even though they are separated by 83 spots. They obviously are not, not even close, but this is simply the rank among 125 schools. Not a lot of love for WCU although their SOS bump was mainly due to playing UT and A&M. Maybe too much for UCA, NH and EKU?

Just some data points. Everyone will have their own personal, and clearly parochial views.





Record




SAG FCS




SAG SOS
FCS
1-125




MAS FCS




Mas SOS FCS 1-125




AGS




Northern Iowa


6-4




5




3




7




2




12




Southern Utah*


7-3




6




16




8




16




13




Richmond


7-3




22




57




24




48




14




Sam Houston State*


7-3




15




86




26




69




15




Northern Arizona


7-3




28




37




25




54




16




The Citadel


7-3




17




38




19




25




18




Montana


6-4




20




30




27




24




19




Central Arkansas


7-3




31




68




40




70




21




Eastern Washington


6-4




39




21




29




14




24




Villanova


6-4




23




35




21




20




26




N Dakota


6-4




42




46




44




51




28




New Hampshire


6-4




40




62




43




62




29




E Illinois


6-4




32




25




30




26




30




Towson


6-4




37




31




31




23




31




Eastern Kentucky


6-4




27




54




36




61




33




Tenn-Martin


6-4




36




23




33




44




36




Western Carolina*


6-4




26




11




23




13




37




* - one win was sub Div I

[F'N Hawks]

Yeah I know what you mean. I mean, WCU isn't receiving as many votes in the human polls as E Wash or N Arizona. The human polls must be pretty accurate. I mean, more accurate than the computers. Good thing we are still receiving more votes in the human polls than UND. Whew! Oh but that is not what you meant, was it? They must be inaccurate...in that case.

I don't hang my hat 100% on computer or human polls. I do cross check them to validate my position though. If I am off a bit I will investigate further to make sure I have not missed something or introduced something based on my biases, biases which are always included in human polls. And when we are talking about SOS, we can talk subjectively about who seems better based on all those intangibles that were not included in the computer polls, like losing a starting QB or a game that was played in a downpour. Or we can talk simply about the objective results of the computer polls and SOS (which use algorithms that were created in a subjective way). But at least all teams are subjected to the same algorithms so the result is objective in using those same rules.

That's fair. We will see on Sunday what they think.

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

How does UN_ get in when they are 42nd in the latest Gridiron Power Index?

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151117gpi.html

[F'N Hawks]

How does UN_ get in when they are 42nd in the latest Gridiron Power Index?

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151117gpi.html

The leaving the D out thing has run it's course, ace. Catch up with the rest of your fans. And the GPI doesn't dictate order of at-larges.

[PantherRob82]

How does UN_ get in when they are 42nd in the latest Gridiron Power Index?

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151117gpi.html

UNI gets a seed! xlolx

[achrist70]

UNI gets a seed! xlolx

Seems right to me, along with 6 MFVC teams in the field.

[FCSwatcher]

It would be nice if the committee actually real eased THEIR weekly ranking. We good then see the trends they are talking about. Transparency would be nice


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

The leaving the D out thing has run it's course, ace. Catch up with the rest of your fans. And the GPI doesn't dictate order of at-larges.

The name you are using has run its course also.

[SDFS]

The name you are using has run its course also.

Go SiouxSL

[citdog]

How does UN_ get in when they are 42nd in the latest Gridiron Power Index?

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20151117gpi.html

The gpi sucks.....that's why.

[abc123]

Because that is not exactly how it works. You just can't do an average of each one of a team's opponent's rankings and come up with a score to compare. You would really need to use their opponent's "rating" not their rank. NDSU is ranked 1 and their rating is 1.58 and you compare them to say SDSU who is ranked 4 but has a rating of 1.56, there is not much of a difference in rating. To go even further, PSU has a ranking of 12 but a rating of 1.31. In other words it is not linear. Wyoming has a rank of 204 and a rating of 0.77. Sac St is 258 and 0.51. In an extreme example if 100 teams were all rated the same 1.40 and the 101st ranked team was rated 1.41 and you played them, based on their rank it would not look too good but in reality they are only marginally worse than the first 100 teams and your ranking would not be changed very much.

Hope that made sense.

Good info. If I'm understanding you right, here is the "ratings" next to their rankings. As someone else alluded to, the biggest thing would be if Massey completely overlooked lower division opponents and didn't count them in any fashion. If that is the case, SUU isn't punished for playing Brevard, while UND still takes a hit in their SOS average for playing Drake. Thinking that there is something to that because everything is numerically a wash outside of Utah State/Wyoming and Drake/Brevard. Would definitely help explain the difference.

SUU
SDSU (80, 1.56)
Utah State (85 - FBS, 2.07)
NAU (134, 1.09)
Sac St (268, 0.51)
Brevard (665, -0.59)
Total: 4.64 / Avg: 0.93

UND
NDSU (77, 1.58)
Montana (138, 1.07)
Wyoming (204 - FBS, 0.77)
ISU (271, 0.51)
Drake (326, 0.31)
Total: 4.24 / Avg: 0.85

[FargoBison]

The Bison Media Blog (http://bisonmedia.areavoices.com/2015-bracketology-7-1/) has released a new bracket....

http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/2015-Bracketology-7.1.png?resize=620%2C774

[veinup]

Montana/SUU @ PSU .. regionalization? 3 teams from the same conference all jammed up in there is ridiculous.

[FargoBison]

Montana/SUU @ PSU .. regionalization? 3 teams from the same conference all jammed up in there is ridiculous.

Better hope SUU loses...NAU at least can't be matched up with Montana. So Big Sky teams could be spread out better.

[ElCid]

Good info. If I'm understanding you right, here is the "ratings" next to their rankings. As someone else alluded to, the biggest thing would be if Massey completely overlooked lower division opponents and didn't count them in any fashion. If that is the case, SUU isn't punished for playing Brevard, while UND still takes a hit in their SOS average for playing Drake. Thinking that there is something to that because everything is numerically a wash outside of Utah State/Wyoming and Drake/Brevard. Would definitely help explain the difference.

SUU
SDSU (80, 1.56)
Utah State (85 - FBS, 2.07)
NAU (134, 1.09)
Sac St (268, 0.51)
Brevard (665, -0.59)
Total: 4.64 / Avg: 0.93

UND
NDSU (77, 1.58)
Montana (138, 1.07)
Wyoming (204 - FBS, 0.77)
ISU (271, 0.51)
Drake (326, 0.31)
Total: 4.24 / Avg: 0.85

Except it is the other way around. Sagarin does not use lower divisions, Massey does in all calculations since they rank all 8-900 plus college teams regardless of division. Sagarin doesn't. Not sure how that comes out. I am not sure how the SOS ratings are calculated either. Do they use today's rating or what it was the day of the game, or some combination based on how long ago with a diminishing return. Not sure. I do know that Massey is a hair more accurate than Sagarin though. Sag is about 77% accurate to pick a winner and Massey about 82%.

[abc123]

Except it is the other way around. Sagarin does not use lower divisions, Massey does in all calculations since they rank all 8-900 plus college teams regardless of division. Sagarin doesn't. Not sure how that comes out. I am not sure how the SOS ratings are calculated either. Do they use today's rating or what it was the day of the game, or some combination based on how long ago with a diminishing return. Not sure. I do know that Massey is a hair more accurate than Sagarin though. Sag is about 77% accurate to pick a winner and Massey about 82%.
What I showed does include SUU's Brevard game which doesn't help in trying to figure out how SUU's schedule is rated so high. It doesn't appear there should be that big of a difference, yet there is. Would be interesting to know or at least partially know. I can't imagine they would fully use day of game SOS as the early games would be fairly inaccurate with no data points to support them.

[achrist70]

This is how I would get the 10 best teams in the country in the bracket and also prevent a 1 conference championship.

Missouri St vs SIU @ #1 NDSU
WIU vs ISUb @ #3 ISUr
USD vs YSU @ #5 SDSU
Dayton vs NEC AQ @ #7 UNI

Everybody else would be on the other half of the bracket

Why even have another side to the bracket, this would determine the National Champion

[Grizalltheway]

Better hope SUU loses...NAU at least can't be matched up with Montana. So Big Sky teams could be spread out better.

I'm hoping for that anyway because it gives us a shot at the auto-bid.xthumbsupx

[CappinHard]

The Bison Media Blog (http://bisonmedia.areavoices.com/2015-bracketology-7-1/) has released a new bracket....

http://i0.wp.com/bisonmedia.areavoices.com/files/2015/11/2015-Bracketology-7.1.png?resize=620%2C774

That would be a brutal draw for SDSU. Whichever MVFC team ends up getting UNI in the 2nd round will be the worst draw, IMO. Whichever, if any, MVFC team gets placed on the opposite bracket from the other 3 MVFC teams will have the best draw. In the case of this bracket, please swap SDSU and ISUr. xthumbsupx

Based on regionalization, hopefully ISUr has to deal with UNI, but I think SDSU and NDSU are close enough, where they could be paired as well. Having said that, why not move the UND/UNI game to feed into NDSU? That seems to make more sense regionally.

My hope is that the committee looks at the fact that NDSU and ISUr didn't play each other in the regular season and want to pair them up in the playoffs as soon as feasible.

[Professor Chaos]

Having said that, why not move the UND/UNI game to feed into NDSU? That seems to make more sense regionally.
The logic would be because both UNI and UND are bus trips from SDSU (Sioux Falls). Only UND is a bus trip from NDSU, UNI would be a flight.

[ST_Lawson]

Except it is the other way around. Sagarin does not use lower divisions, Massey does in all calculations since they rank all 8-900 plus college teams regardless of division. Sagarin doesn't. Not sure how that comes out. I am not sure how the SOS ratings are calculated either. Do they use today's rating or what it was the day of the game, or some combination based on how long ago with a diminishing return. Not sure. I do know that Massey is a hair more accurate than Sagarin though. Sag is about 77% accurate to pick a winner and Massey about 82%.

For Massey, they've got two different SOS rankings.
SoS - strength of schedule for games played
SSF - strength of schedule for whole season including future games

I believe that they calculate based on strength of the team today...at least, that's my guess based on periodic checking throughout the season. It helps correct some issues with teams being ranked too high or low in the early season, but it also doesn't account for severe drop-offs from things like injuries and stuff. For example, Villanova was a much tougher team to play in the first few weeks than they are now, due to Robertson being done because of injury.

[herd13]

The logic would be because both UNI and UND are bus trips from SDSU (Sioux Falls). Only UND is a bus trip from NDSU, UNI would be a flight.

What is the mileage limit for a bus drive vs flight? Is it 400?

[FargoBison]

What is the mileage limit for a bus drive vs flight? Is it 400?

It is 400 miles.

[CappinHard]

The logic would be because both UNI and UND are bus trips from SDSU (Sioux Falls). Only UND is a bus trip from NDSU, UNI would be a flight.

Really... I didn't think a difference of 88 miles would be that big of a deal. I see that others state 400 miles as the limit between a bus drive and a flight, but there's no way that's a hard cut off. You're telling me that they would look at the trip and say "ah... 40 miles too far... I guess we'll have to spend thousands of extra dollars to fly now... too bad"...?

[FargoBison]

Really... I didn't think a difference of 88 miles would be that big of a deal. I see that others state 400 miles as the limit between a bus drive and a flight, but there's no way that's a hard cut off. You're telling me that they would look at the trip and say "ah... 40 miles too far... I guess we'll have to spend thousands of extra dollars to fly now... too bad"...?

It is a hard cut off. If you are over 400 miles away the NCAA will pay for a free charter flight...anything under 400 miles is mandatory ground.

[CappinHard]

It is a hard cut off. If you are over 400 miles away the NCAA will pay for a free charter flight...anything under 400 miles is mandatory ground.

Interesting, I had no idea... well in that case, pairing UNI and UND and funneling the winner to SDSU is a money saving no brainer for the committee. Unless they pair UNI with ISUr, it looks like we'll be facing them in the 2nd round. Fun.

Hopefully UND loses so this pairing/regionalization scenario isn't possible.

[Professor Chaos]

Interesting, I had no idea... well in that case, pairing UNI and UND and funneling the winner to SDSU is a money saving no brainer for the committee. Unless they pair UNI with ISUr, it looks like we'll be facing them in the 2nd round. Fun.

Hopefully UND loses so this pairing/regionalization scenario isn't possible.
Yeah, I think either SDSU or ISUr is going to be stuck with having to face UNI in their first game. UND, if they make it, may get paired in the 1st round with another Big Sky school that they didn't play in the regular season like SUU, NAU, or EWU and then I'd bet they'd be in NDSU's pod. UNI and UND are also a flight away from each other so it's not like the committee is obligated to pair them together in the 1st round but SDSU being seeded gives them the excuse they need to do it so they can guarantee a second round bus trip.

[jmrepak]

Does anyone have experience with how much the bus charters cost? They normally charter at least 3 if not 4 buses for the team and maybe band and cheerleaders. The charter buses still have to take them there and back and for that many I would guess its still costs a fairly large amount.

The charter flights are most likely costing the NCAA around $10,000 per flight hour for a 737 and those normally fly around 450-500 mph ground speed with a direct route. Just curiosity more than anything. Does the NCAA also have rules on how early you can arrive for flight vs. bus?

[Sycamore62]

Interesting, I had no idea... well in that case, pairing UNI and UND and funneling the winner to SDSU is a money saving no brainer for the committee. Unless they pair UNI with ISUr, it looks like we'll be facing them in the 2nd round. Fun.

Hopefully UND loses so this pairing/regionalization scenario isn't possible.

Our trip to Chatty last year was 390 miles. we tried to get them to let us fly. we bussed. I think you can choose to fly yourself but Im not sure.

[Professor Chaos]

Does anyone have experience with how much the bus charters cost? They normally charter at least 3 if not 4 buses for the team and maybe band and cheerleaders. The charter buses still have to take them there and back and for that many I would guess its still costs a fairly large amount.

The charter flights are most likely costing the NCAA around $10,000 per flight hour for a 737 and those normally fly around 450-500 mph ground speed with a direct route. Just curiosity more than anything. Does the NCAA also have rules on how early you can arrive for flight vs. bus?
As of 2010 (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2010/10_1_football.pdf) (not sure if it's changed since then) they limit the "traveling party" to 130 with a maximum of 60 players dressed on game day. I would guess the cost of a charter flight is more than $10K (since that is about $80 round trip per member of the traveling party).

They require visiting teams to be allowed to practice at the game site the day before the game so travel would have to occur before then.

[jmrepak]

As of 2010 (http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/champ_handbooks/football/2010/10_1_football.pdf) (not sure if it's changed since then) they limit the "traveling party" to 130 with a maximum of 60 players dressed on game day. I would guess the cost of a charter flight is more than $10K (since that is about $80 round trip per member of the traveling party).

They require visiting teams to be allowed to practice at the game site the day before the game so travel would have to occur before then.
It's $10,000 per hour generally measured based on the time the engines are turning (ground maneuvers included). When you rent or charter aircraft they quote you based on the travel time it takes since that is what they base most of their costs on including fuel usage, pilot costs, maintenance contracts and requirements, aircraft depreciation, etc. They may give you a fixed rate, but it is based on travel time. The $10K estimate may be light by a couple thousand per hour, but I would guess the NCAA has a negotiated contract with the charter companies. I know Coastal always uses Sun Country.

That makes sense about traveling the day before. I didn't know if bus travel regs were different than the air regs.

[Professor Chaos]

It's $10,000 per hour generally measured based on the time the engines are turning (ground maneuvers included). When you rent or charter aircraft they quote you based on the travel time it takes since that is what they base most of their costs on including fuel usage, pilot costs, maintenance contracts and requirements, aircraft depreciation, etc. They may give you a fixed rate, but it is based on travel time. The $10K estimate may be light by a couple thousand per hour, but I would guess the NCAA has a negotiated contract with the charter companies. I know Coastal always uses Sun Country.

That makes sense about traveling the day before. I didn't know if bus travel regs were different than the air regs.
Oh, missed the "per flight hour" part, haha. Yeah, that makes sense then.

[ST_Lawson]

For flights, anyone know if the NCAA covers transportation to the nearest airport, or does the school have to pick up that bill?

For reference, 400 miles would get us to
MVFC members: Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State and Northern Iowa
OVC members: Eastern Illinois, Southeast Missouri State, Murray State, and Tennessee-Martin
Pioneer League members: Valparaiso, Butler, Drake, and (just barely) Dayton

[rokamortis]

For flights, anyone know if the NCAA covers transportation to the nearest airport, or does the school have to pick up that bill?

For reference, 400 miles would get us to
MVFC members: Illinois State, Indiana State, Missouri State and Northern Iowa
OVC members: Eastern Illinois, Southeast Missouri State, Murray State, and Tennessee-Martin
Pioneer League members: Valparaiso, Butler, Drake, and (just barely) Dayton

I believe they cover all reasonable transportation costs. If you have to bus to the airport I'm sure they cover but may expect you to use campus shuttles or school busses vs full fledged charter busses.

[ST_Lawson]

I believe they cover all reasonable transportation costs. If you have to bus to the airport I'm sure they cover but may expect you to use campus shuttles or school busses vs full fledged charter busses.

Obviously we don't have to worry about it this year, but just curious for the future.
Not sure they'd want to use the on-campus buses for a 70 mile trip (each way) though. They're nice buses for a town bus system, but not all that comfortable for driving that far on 2-lane highways.

[FargoBison]

You get charter buses to and from the airport.

A charter flight probably runs the NCAA upwards of $80-100k...there is a reason why they have this whole regionalization obsession.

[rokamortis]

Obviously we don't have to worry about it this year, but just curious for the future.
Not sure they'd want to use the on-campus buses for a 70 mile trip (each way) though. They're nice buses for a town bus system, but not all that comfortable for driving that far on 2-lane highways.

Your closest airport is 70 miles away?

[FargoBison]

Your closest airport is 70 miles away?

I take it you've never been to Macomb or even Brookings which is 50 miles away. That said neither are remotely as bad as Cedar City, Utah.

[Sammy94]

The charter flights are most likely costing the NCAA around $10,000 per flight hour

I don't know the exact amount but this is close. Sam is flying to Arkansas on Friday for our last conference game.

[F'N Hawks]

Pretty sure you can charter right into Cedar City.

[FargoBison]

Pretty sure you can charter right into Cedar City.

I guess you can, I was thinking about basketball who hated that trip.

[rokamortis]

I take it you've never been to Macomb or even Brookings which is 50 miles away. That said neither are remotely as bad as Cedar City, Utah.

Never been to any of those places. I used to live in Montana and thought that was remote. I figured any town that can support a mid-large sized university would have an airport allowing charter flights somewhat close.

[F'N Hawks]

I guess you can, I was thinking about basketball who hated that trip.

Yah, hoops and other sports need to go to Vegas I think. Pain in the arse.

[ST_Lawson]

Your closest airport is 70 miles away?

Yes. On two-lane 55MPH highways, through small towns and cornfields.

https://goo.gl/maps/zB5AFPB6t1v




Never been to any of those places. I used to live in Montana and thought that was remote. I figured any town that can support a mid-large sized university would have an airport allowing charter flights somewhat close.

The Bozeman and Missoula areas are each over 3 times larger than the Macomb area.

We have an airport just outside of Macomb, but it's just a small municipal airport...no actual flights you can buy a ticket for. It can handle small private aircraft, even smaller private jets, but as far as I know, nothing Boeing makes can land here.

[jmrepak]

You get charter buses to and from the airport.

A charter flight probably runs the NCAA upwards of $80-100k...there is a reason why they have this whole regionalization obsession.
The cost of the flight is 100% related to how far it is which determines flight time, but I would estimate that it is closer to $70-$80K. Most charters are 737's which cruise at 500+ mph. For the CCU -> NDSU flights it was running in the neighborhood of the 75 thousand is my best guess at 2.75 hours each way plus taxi and landing pattern. That is at a $12,500 wet rate, and I would bet money NCAA is getting a better deal than that by booking so much charter activity throughout the year. However, that is about the longest/most it should cost due to regionalization because they are almost halfway across the country from us (that Montana trip probably cost in the neighborhood of $150-$170 thousand all in with $115k for the plane).

https://airplanemanager.com/FlightCalculator.aspx
http://www.topspeed.com/aviation/aviation-reviews/boeing/1998-2010-boeing-737-800-ar85475.html
http://www.aircharterguide.com/Aircraft/Manufacturer/BOEING (these seating configs aren't right, but generally the less seating, the more VIP which equals higher price).

[Sycamore62]

Yes. On two-lane 55MPH highways, through small towns and cornfields.

In your defense, it feels much farther than 70 miles

[kalm]

So here are the possible 7-4 teams. I put the top 5 teams of each column in green, the bottom 5 in Orange. Black is everyone in the middle. The final sort was AGS Poll. WCU, SHSU, and S Utah each have 1 sub Div I W, which I just realized about SU. Not sure how that will play out if they lose Saturday. It obviously does not take the final SOS into consideration. There will be a bunch of movement there. The thing to remember in the difference between Sagarin and Massey is that Sagarin does not take <Div I games into account in rating or the SOS but Massey does. And as mentioned above, this is simply the rank of the teams schedule. Theoretically, SHSU could be very close to Northern Iowa is actual strengths of opponents even though they are separated by 83 spots. They obviously are not, not even close, but this is simply the rank among 125 schools. Not a lot of love for WCU although their SOS bump was mainly due to playing UT and A&M. Maybe too much for UCA, NH and EKU?

Just some data points. Everyone will have their own personal, and clearly parochial views.





Record




SAG FCS




SAG SOS
FCS
1-125




MAS FCS




Mas SOS FCS 1-125




AGS




Northern Iowa


6-4




5




3




7




2




12




Southern Utah*


7-3




6




16




8




16




13




Richmond


7-3




22




57




24




48




14




Sam Houston State*


7-3




15




86




26




69




15




Northern Arizona


7-3




28




37




25




54




16




The Citadel


7-3




17




38




19




25




18




Montana


6-4




20




30




27




24




19




Central Arkansas


7-3




31




68




40




70




21




Eastern Washington


6-4




39




21




29




14




24




Villanova


6-4




23




35




21




20




26




N Dakota


6-4




42




46




44




51




28




New Hampshire


6-4




40




62




43




62




29




E Illinois


6-4




32




25




30




26




30




Towson


6-4




37




31




31




23




31




Eastern Kentucky


6-4




27




54




36




61




33




Tenn-Martin


6-4




36




23




33




44




36




Western Carolina*


6-4




26




11




23




13




37




* - one win was sub Div I









Great effort and great post, CID. Thanks!

[dbackjon]

I take it you've never been to Macomb or even Brookings which is 50 miles away. That said neither are remotely as bad as Cedar City, Utah.

I've flown in and out of Cedar City before

[ming01]

Montana/SUU @ PSU .. regionalization? 3 teams from the same conference all jammed up in there is ridiculous.

Yeah I dont think they will bunch up 3 together.

[McNeese75]

I take it you've never been to Macomb or even Brookings which is 50 miles away. That said neither are remotely as bad as Cedar City, Utah.

xeyebrowx Flying into Cedar City is for the team. Fans fly into Vegas two days earlier and charter a party bus for the game trip

[Tealblood]

Screwy thing is you can't take the money it would cost for the buses and then make up the difference to fly

[WTFCollegefootballfan]

Go SiouxSL

Don't you mean... GO FIGHTING HAWKS

[McNeese72]

Pretty sure you can charter right into Cedar City.

You can. McNeese has flown into there on charters, twice.

Doc

[ElCid]

So here are the possible 7-4 teams. I put the top 5 teams of each column in green, the bottom 5 in Orange. Black is everyone in the middle. The final sort was AGS Poll. WCU, SHSU, and S Utah each have 1 sub Div I W, which I just realized about SU. Not sure how that will play out if they lose Saturday. It obviously does not take the final SOS into consideration. There will be a bunch of movement there. The thing to remember in the difference between Sagarin and Massey is that Sagarin does not take <Div I games into account in rating or the SOS but Massey does. And as mentioned above, this is simply the rank of the teams schedule. Theoretically, SHSU could be very close to Northern Iowa is actual strengths of opponents even though they are separated by 83 spots. They obviously are not, not even close, but this is simply the rank among 125 schools. Not a lot of love for WCU although their SOS bump was mainly due to playing UT and A&M. Maybe too much for UCA, NH and EKU?

Just some data points. Everyone will have their own personal, and clearly parochial views.





Record




SAG FCS




SAG SOS
FCS
1-125




MAS FCS




Mas SOS FCS 1-125




AGS




Northern Iowa


6-4




5




3




7




2




12




Southern Utah*


7-3




6




16




8




16




13




Richmond


7-3




22




57




24




48




14




Sam Houston State*


7-3




15




86




26




69




15




Northern Arizona*


7-3




28




37




25




54




16




The Citadel


7-3




17




38




19




25




18




Montana


6-4




20




30




27




24




19




Central Arkansas


7-3




31




68




40




70




21




Eastern Washington


6-4




39




21




29




14




24




Villanova


6-4




23




35




21




20




26




N Dakota


6-4




42




46




44




51




28




New Hampshire


6-4




40




62




43




62




29




E Illinois


6-4




32




25




30




26




30




Towson


6-4




37




31




31




23




31




Eastern Kentucky


6-4




27




54




36




61




33




Tenn-Martin


6-4




36




23




33




44




36




Western Carolina*


6-4




26




11




23




13




37




* - one win was sub Div I









I did miss one thing. N Arizona has a Sub Div I win as well. I think that was all of them.

[ElCid]

What I showed does include SUU's Brevard game which doesn't help in trying to figure out how SUU's schedule is rated so high. It doesn't appear there should be that big of a difference, yet there is. Would be interesting to know or at least partially know. I can't imagine they would fully use day of game SOS as the early games would be fairly inaccurate with no data points to support them.

I think I figured it out. I steered you wrong. It is "Power Rating" that comprises it, not "Rating." Am not sure of the exact process for computing it, but the totals come closer to the SOS rating. The Home field advantages come into it as well. But I have not been able to crack the code myself. The explanation on his site is actually below so there is a formula he uses specifically for obtaining the SOS.

"Let the function EW(schedule) give the expected wins a team would get versus the specified schedule. Then I define schedule strength S to be the unique rating S such that if Team X has rating S then

n*EW(X) = EW(actual schedule played)

where n is then number of games played."

"In words this means that if the team in question had played X in every game, then the expected wins would be exactly the same as for the actual schedule played."

There is a lot more on why simply averaging any rating is not a good idea. You can peruse it here: http://www.masseyratings.com/theory/sched.htm (http://www.masseyratings.com/theory/sched.htm)

[leatherneck177]

I did miss one thing. N Arizona has a Sub Div I win as well. I think that was all of them.

I'll say it just because they can both get to six DI wins on Saturday and they each have SOS numbers that COULD with a TON of help put them into consideration, but how would WIU and YSU look on this chart?

[BisonTru]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=21835&stc=1

This what I came up with. I used Massey to simulate the rest of the season. The bubble came down to some 6-4 teams (NAU, WCU) that were fairly highly rated, some 6-5 squads (Villanova, YSU) who were a little higher rated, and some 7-4 squads that were very low in the rankings. I put the 6-4 squads in. Not sure how the committee will see it, they may certainly go a different direction and reward the 6-5 teams or the 7-4 teams. JMO, I would place Villanova and YSU in, but if I had to guess what the committee would go with, it would look like this.


Here is the list of teams with their projected records and ranked by Massey. Yellow = AQ, Grey = At-Large




N Dakota StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Illinois StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Jacksonville StOH Valley
9-10.900
10-1


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
6-40.600
7-4


Southern UtahBig Sky
7-30.700
8-3


William & MaryColonial
8-20.800
9-2


McNeese StSouthland
9-01.000
10-0


Charleston SoBig South
9-10.900
9-2


Portland StBig Sky
8-20.800
9-2


ChattanoogaSouthern
8-20.800
8-3


Coastal CarBig South
9-10.900
10-1


James MadisonColonial
8-20.800
9-2


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
5-50.500
6-5


CitadelSouthern
7-30.700
7-4


FordhamPatriot League
9-20.818
9-2


VillanovaColonial
6-40.600
6-5


W CarolinaSouthern
6-40.600
6-4


RichmondColonial
7-30.700
7-4


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
7-30.700
6-4


Sam Houston StSouthland
7-30.700
7-3


MontanaBig Sky
6-40.600
6-5


E WashingtonBig Sky
6-40.600
6-5


E IllinoisOH Valley
6-40.600
7-4


TowsonColonial
6-40.600
7-4


TN MartinOH Valley
6-40.600
6-4


E KentuckyOH Valley
6-40.600
6-5


Cent ArkansasSouthland
7-30.700
7-4


New HampshireColonial
6-40.600
7-4

[BisonBacker]

I don't think SDSU will be seeded lower than Ill. State.

[Nodak78]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=21835&stc=1

This what I came up with. I used Massey to simulate the rest of the season. The bubble came down to some 6-4 teams (NAU, WCU) that were fairly highly rated, some 6-5 squads (Villanova, YSU) who were a little higher rated, and some 7-4 squads that were very low in the rankings. I put the 6-4 squads in. Not sure how the committee will see it, they may certainly go a different direction and reward the 6-5 teams or the 7-4 teams. JMO, I would place Villanova and YSU in, but if I had to guess what the committee would go with, it would look like this.


Here is the list of teams with their projected records and ranked by Massey. Yellow = AQ, Grey = At-Large




N Dakota StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Illinois StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Jacksonville StOH Valley
9-10.900
10-1


S Dakota StMissouri Valley
8-20.800
9-2


Northern IowaMissouri Valley
6-40.600
7-4


Southern UtahBig Sky
7-30.700
8-3


William & MaryColonial
8-20.800
9-2


McNeese StSouthland
9-01.000
10-0


Charleston SoBig South
9-10.900
9-2


Portland StBig Sky
8-20.800
9-2


ChattanoogaSouthern
8-20.800
8-3


Coastal CarBig South
9-10.900
10-1


James MadisonColonial
8-20.800
9-2


Youngstown StMissouri Valley
5-50.500
6-5


CitadelSouthern
7-30.700
7-4


FordhamPatriot League
9-20.818
9-2


VillanovaColonial
6-40.600
6-5


W CarolinaSouthern
6-40.600
6-4


RichmondColonial
7-30.700
7-4


Northern ArizonaBig Sky
7-30.700
7-4


Sam Houston StSouthland
7-30.700
7-3


MontanaBig Sky
6-40.600
6-5


E WashingtonBig Sky
6-40.600
6-5


E IllinoisOH Valley
6-40.600
7-4


TowsonColonial
6-40.600
7-4


TN MartinOH Valley
6-40.600
6-4


E KentuckyOH Valley
6-40.600
6-5


Cent ArkansasSouthland
7-30.700
7-4


New HampshireColonial
6-40.600
7-4




I seriously doubt NAU would be picked if they lose to SUU. The only team they beat above .500 was EWU.

[BisonTru]

I seriously doubt NAU would be picked if they lose to SUU. The only team they beat above .500 was EWU.

In this scenario you could drop way down and throw in UCA or UNH or possibly throw in a 6-5. They were the last one in and if Montana wins, IMO likely but Massey disagrees or Villanova wins (possible) they'd be knocked out.

[Nodak78]

In this scenario you could drop way down and throw in UCA or UNH or possibly throw in a 6-5. They were the last one in and if Montana wins, IMO likely but Massey disagrees or Villanova wins (possible) they'd be knocked out.

Well the Fighting Hawks will will and be 7-4 with wins over Wyoming and PSU. In this case replace NAU with UND. Put Chatty in SUU's #6 spot and Bring SUU to UND. Let the Hawks and Tbirds fight it out.

[CappinHard]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=21835&stc=1




A.k.a. NDSU's dream bracket. xsmiley_wix

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

A.k.a. NDSU's dream bracket. xsmiley_wix


I'd take this....xthumbsupx

[BisonTru]

A.k.a. NDSU's dream bracket. xsmiley_wix

Agreed. You can pretty much swap out the NDSU bracket with SDSU or ISU. Call me a homer, but I think we may get the nod because of past playoff performances. If McNeese St is ranked at 2, very likely. Two MVFC are probably sitting 4 and 5 and will run into each other. Also, UNI being a plane ride to Fargo, pretty much assures they won't be coming to Fargo if both SDSU and ISU are ranked. I sent the easiest pairing that wasn't a bus trip to JSU.

[JSUSoutherner]

A.k.a. NDSU's dream bracket. xsmiley_wix
Holy crap, our side of the bracket is loaded, UNI, SDSU, ISUr, CSU, Coastal, Portland State. Wow, suddenly I want the #2 seed.

[BisonTru]

Holy crap, our side of the bracket is loaded, UNI, SDSU, ISUr, CSU, Coastal, Portland State. Wow, suddenly I want the #2 seed.

You guys should be rooting for Lamar this weekend. If that happens very likely two of the top 3 MVFC teams are placed on the other side of the bracket.

[CappinHard]

Agreed. You can pretty much swap out the NDSU bracket with SDSU or ISU. Call me a homer, but I think we may get the nod because of past playoff performances. If McNeese St is ranked at 2, very likely. Two MVFC are probably sitting 4 and 5 and will run into each other. Also, UNI being a plane ride to Fargo, pretty much assures they won't be coming to Fargo if both SDSU and ISU are ranked. I sent the easiest pairing that wasn't a bus trip to JSU.

I see your logic... Honestly, I would rather see something like this than a bracket that ends up with SDSU going up to Fargo late in the tournament. Nobody is talking about it, but if Wentz is coming back (if I remember right, he could potentially be back by the semifinals), I don't want that match up again... this time in Fargo... One of Wentz's last games... Yeah, no thanks.