SHSU vs. UCA: Playoff chances

[BEAR]

Southland Playoff Scenarios

McNeese 8-0
UCA 6-1
SHSU 5-2

McNeese:
8 Division I wins.
Has the autobid.
Even if they lose to Lamar for their last game they and UCA happens to win out they still hold the tie breaker for the autobid but will have to share the conference title with UCA. Either way they get the autobid.

Sam Houston:
Has 5 division I wins.
Needs to defeat NWST and UCA to get to 7 division I wins to be possibly playoff eligible.

UCA:
Has 6 division I wins.
Has to beat either Nicholls State or Sam Houston to get 7 division I wins.
Could share conference title with McNeese if the Cowboys fall to Lamar. (not likely IMO)

So let’s look at the Southland’s playoffs representative scenarios.

McNeese is a lock. No need to discuss their schedule. They’re in.

So let’s look at UCA and Sam Houston possibly getting the other bid(s).



Opponent

Sam Houston

UCA

Advantage



Houston Baptist

63-14

43-7

TIE to slight SHSU



SFA

34-28

36-24

TIE



ACU

49-21

42-14

TIE



McNeese

10-27

13-28

TIE



Lamar

46-49

35-17

UCA



Nicholls

37-7

?

UCA plays 11- 14



UIW

59-7

X- does not play

incomparable



NWST

?

49-21

SHSU plays 11-14



Southeastern Louisiana

X-did not play

21-16

incomparable



Other FCS

X- did not play

Samford 16-45

incomparable



UCA

?

X

Plays SHSU 11-21



Sam Houston

X

?

Plays UCA 11-21



FBS

UNR-Texas Tech 45-59

#5 FBS Oklahoma State 8-32

TIE




Looking at the above comparisons let’s see who or if both will get an at large.
……………………………………………………………………………..

With just 2 bids into the national playoffs with McNeese getting one of those:

Scenario #1

Sam Houston plays NWST and defeats them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and defeats them.

UCA plays Nicholls and defeats them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and loses.

UCA goes to 7-4 and Sam goes to 7-3 for division I games only.

IMO: Sam gets the at-large while UCA hopes the committee puts a third one in from the SLC.


Scenario #2

Sam Houston plays NWST and defeats them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and defeats them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and defeats them.

UCA goes 8-3 and Sam goes 6-4 for division I games only.

IMO: UCA gets the at-large and Sam most likely stays home with just 6 division I wins.

Scenario #3

Sam Houston plays NWST and loses to them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and loses to them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and defeats them.

UCA goes 7-4 and maybe get the at-large while Sam goes 5-5 and will stay home.

Scenario #4

Sam Houston plays NWST and loses to them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and loses to them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and Kat fans bring box cutters and begin helping UCA fans strip the stripes to install a real green field.


Scenario #1 is the one I am most interested in to see what FCS fans think.

If the Southland only gets 2 representatives will it be UCA or Sam Houston using scenario #1.

UCA has the edge in the Lamar game comparison.

Sam has a slight edge on the HBU game but UCA played it on the road and Sam had it at home. Last year UCA defeated HBU 70-0 at home so I’m not sure what to make of that comparison. If anything a slight edge to Sam.

UCA played another FCS school but lost pretty bad but it was the first game of the year. Sam didn’t play one.

Sam played a D2 powerhouse and defeated them. UCA didn’t play a D2.

The SFA, ACU and McNeese games were pretty identical.

If Sam plays NWST and UCA plays Nicholls to a pretty identical score as each other that will nullify those games. I have a feeling both teams will try to score big points against their next opponent.

Another difference I see is the uncommon opponents:

UCA played last year’s Southland Conference champion but now struggling SLU and won 21-16. SLU has a 3-4 conference record.

SAM played D2 transitioning UIW and won 59-7. UIW has a 4-3 conference record. Not bad.


Coaching strategies:

UCA head coach: Tends to take starters out early in games where the Bears appear to be ahead causing fourth quarter scores by the opponents and less scoring by the Bears. But a victory by 1 point is all that counts I guess.

Sam: ? Please fill in the blank Sam fans!


Injuries that will/may affect the team’s playoff chances:

UCA: Starting QB and back up QB both have shoulder injuries severely limiting the passing game. UCA has had to go to the run game to sustain the offense. UCA starting Runningback has had 2 concussions and will most likely be out for the next two games. UCA is now RB by committee. Backup RB has had some great games though. UCA has sparingly used receivers this year.

SAM: ? Please fill in the blank SAM fans!




Conference only stat leaders: Possible playoff teams stats included for comparison.

Points per game: Sam Houston: 43 UCA 34 McNeese 31
Scoring defense: McNeese: 12 UCA 18 Sam 22
Yards per game: Sam Houston: 512 UCA 458 McNeese 381
Defense YPG: McNeese 314 UCA 318 Sam 350
Rushing offense: Sam 236 UCA 229 McNeese 220
Rushing defense: McNeese 78 UCA 123 Sam 212
Passing offense: Sam 275 UCA 229 McNeese 161
Passing defense: Sam 139 UCA 195 McNeese 237
Passing efficiency: Sam 159 UCA 153 McNeese 103
Passing defense eff: Sam 95 UCA 98 McNeese 114
Kickoff return avg yardage: McNeese 27 UCA 18 Sam 18
Punt return avg yardage: Sam 17 UCA 14 McNeese 7
Kickoff net aver: McNeese 45 UCA 45 Sam 45
Punting net avg: McNeese 42 UCA 40 Sam 39
Sacks against: Sam 6 UCA 7 McNeese 8
Sacks by: McNeese 24 UCA 20 Sam 14
Interceptions: UCA 14 Sam 10 McNeese 4

In the above stats UCA is second in every category (of the three remaining playoff teams) 16/17 and leads in one. (minus the equal stats in KNA)

So what happens if Sam comes to UCA and defeats the Bears?

SAM played a D2…will the voters take that into account when looking at both 7 DI win teams (not counting the D2 toward the 7 wins)?

SAM has the resources and travelling fan base that maybe UCA hasn’t built up yet.

UCA may have its starting QB, backup QB, starting RB, and injured players healthy by the first round which will only increase their offensive output. Defense looks healthy.

With most things being comparative, will the SAM vs. UCA game decide who gets in if there are only 2 representatives in the national playoffs?

IF there are 3 SLC representatives:

As long as Sam takes care of NWST and UCA they will be fine with 7 Division I wins.

As long as UCA takes care of Nicholls they will be fine with 7 Division I wins.


THOUGHTS?
This is just ONE way to look at it. If you have others please post it!

[MR. CHICKEN]

Southland Playoff Scenarios

McNeese 8-0
UCA 6-1
SHSU 5-2

McNeese:
8 Division I wins.
Has the autobid.
Even if they lose to Lamar for their last game they and UCA happens to win out they still hold the tie breaker for the autobid but will have to share the conference title with UCA. Either way they get the autobid.

Sam Houston:
Has 5 division I wins.
Needs to defeat NWST and UCA to get to 7 division I wins to be possibly playoff eligible.

UCA:
Has 6 division I wins.
Has to beat either Nicholls State or Sam Houston to get 7 division I wins.
Could share conference title with McNeese if the Cowboys fall to Lamar. (not likely IMO)

So let’s look at the Southland’s playoffs representative scenarios.

McNeese is a lock. No need to discuss their schedule. They’re in.

So let’s look at UCA and Sam Houston possibly getting the other bid(s).



Opponent
Sam Houston
UCA
Advantage


Houston Baptist
63-14
43-7
TIE to slight SHSU


SFA
34-28
36-24
TIE


ACU
49-21
42-14
TIE


McNeese
10-27
13-28
TIE


Lamar
46-49
35-17
UCA


Nicholls
37-7
?
UCA plays 11- 14


UIW
59-7
X- does not play
incomparable


NWST
?
49-21
SHSU plays 11-14


Southeastern Louisiana
X-did not play
21-16
incomparable


Other FCS
X- did not play
Samford 16-45
incomparable


UCA
?
X
Plays SHSU 11-21


Sam Houston
X
?
Plays UCA 11-21


FBS
UNR-Texas Tech 45-59
#5 FBS Oklahoma State 8-32
TIE



Looking at the above comparisons let’s see who or if both will get an at large.
……………………………………………………………………………..

With just 2 bids into the national playoffs with McNeese getting one of those:

Scenario #1

Sam Houston plays NWST and defeats them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and defeats them.

UCA plays Nicholls and defeats them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and loses.

UCA goes to 7-4 and Sam goes to 7-3 for division I games only.

IMO: Sam gets the at-large while UCA hopes the committee puts a third one in from the SLC.


Scenario #2

Sam Houston plays NWST and defeats them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and defeats them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and defeats them.

UCA goes 8-3 and Sam goes 6-4 for division I games only.

IMO: UCA gets the at-large and Sam most likely stays home with just 6 division I wins.

Scenario #3

Sam Houston plays NWST and loses to them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and loses to them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and defeats them.

UCA goes 7-4 and maybe get the at-large while Sam goes 5-5 and will stay home.

Scenario #4

Sam Houston plays NWST and loses to them.
Sam Houston plays UCA and loses to them.

UCA plays Nicholls and loses to them.
UCA plays Sam Houston and Kat fans bring box cutters and begin helping UCA fans strip the stripes to install a real green field.


Scenario #1 is the one I am most interested in to see what FCS fans think.

If the Southland only gets 2 representatives will it be UCA or Sam Houston using scenario #1.

UCA has the edge in the Lamar game comparison.

Sam has a slight edge on the HBU game but UCA played it on the road and Sam had it at home. Last year UCA defeated HBU 70-0 at home so I’m not sure what to make of that comparison. If anything a slight edge to Sam.

UCA played another FCS school but lost pretty bad but it was the first game of the year. Sam didn’t play one.

Sam played a D2 powerhouse and defeated them. UCA didn’t play a D2.

The SFA, ACU and McNeese games were pretty identical.

If Sam plays NWST and UCA plays Nicholls to a pretty identical score as each other that will nullify those games. I have a feeling both teams will try to score big points against their next opponent.

Another difference I see is the uncommon opponents:

UCA played last year’s Southland Conference champion but now struggling SLU and won 21-16. SLU has a 3-4 conference record.

SAM played D2 transitioning UIW and won 59-7. UIW has a 4-3 conference record. Not bad.


Coaching strategies:

UCA head coach: Tends to take starters out early in games where the Bears appear to be ahead causing fourth quarter scores by the opponents and less scoring by the Bears. But a victory by 1 point is all that counts I guess.

Sam: ? Please fill in the blank Sam fans!


Injuries that will/may affect the team’s playoff chances:

UCA: Starting QB and back up QB both have shoulder injuries severely limiting the passing game. UCA has had to go to the run game to sustain the offense. UCA starting Runningback has had 2 concussions and will most likely be out for the next two games. UCA is now RB by committee. Backup RB has had some great games though. UCA has sparingly used receivers this year.

SAM: ? Please fill in the blank SAM fans!




Conference only stat leaders: Possible playoff teams stats included for comparison.

Points per game: Sam Houston: 43 UCA 34 McNeese 31
Scoring defense: McNeese: 12 UCA 18 Sam 22
Yards per game: Sam Houston: 512 UCA 458 McNeese 381
Defense YPG: McNeese 314 UCA 318 Sam 350
Rushing offense: Sam 236 UCA 229 McNeese 220
Rushing defense: McNeese 78 UCA 123 Sam 212
Passing offense: Sam 275 UCA 229 McNeese 161
Passing defense: Sam 139 UCA 195 McNeese 237
Passing efficiency: Sam 159 UCA 153 McNeese 103
Passing defense eff: Sam 95 UCA 98 McNeese 114
Kickoff return avg yardage: McNeese 27 UCA 18 Sam 18
Punt return avg yardage: Sam 17 UCA 14 McNeese 7
Kickoff net aver: McNeese 45 UCA 45 Sam 45
Punting net avg: McNeese 42 UCA 40 Sam 39
Sacks against: Sam 6 UCA 7 McNeese 8
Sacks by: McNeese 24 UCA 20 Sam 14
Interceptions: UCA 14 Sam 10 McNeese 4

In the above stats UCA is second in every category (of the three remaining playoff teams) 16/17 and leads in one. (minus the equal stats in KNA)

So what happens if Sam comes to UCA and defeats the Bears?

SAM played a D2…will the voters take that into account when looking at both 7 DI win teams (not counting the D2 toward the 7 wins)?

SAM has the resources and travelling fan base that maybe UCA hasn’t built up yet.

UCA may have its starting QB, backup QB, starting RB, and injured players healthy by the first round which will only increase their offensive output. Defense looks healthy.

With most things being comparative, will the SAM vs. UCA game decide who gets in if there are only 2 representatives in the national playoffs?

IF there are 3 SLC representatives:

As long as Sam takes care of NWST and UCA they will be fine with 7 Division I wins.

As long as UCA takes care of Nicholls they will be fine with 7 Division I wins.


THOUGHTS?
This is just ONE way to look at it. If you have others please post it!




......JES' ONE...............ARE YOU UNEMPLOYED......xconfusedx.................FIRE BRAWK!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Of your lengthy post what I find most interesting is the "second Southland at-large team" possibility. In my projections I have UCA beating Sam and Sam being out.

My last four in are Eastern Washington, Towson, UT-Martin and Chattanooga. I don't feel particularly comfortable picking any of these four, honestly, and a 7/6 D-I win club Sam might get consideration here, too, I can see it. I also think a 7-4 UCA team would, too.

Worthy of mention is that if Chatty goes 7-4 they would have a D-II win and would be on a 3-game losing streak going into the tournament. UT-Martin would also be a member of the 7/6 club. What is interesting to me is where Sam, UCA stack up against those two schools.

If EWU and Towson go 0-2 (Very possible) that would open up even more at-large possibilities for a 7-4 Sam/7-4 UCA to slide in.

[BEAR]

......JES' ONE...............ARE YOU UNEMPLOYED......xconfusedx.................FIRE BRAWK!

Nah...this is how I think...mind constantly moving..ask Ursus...xlolx It only took me about 30 minutes to write that stuff.

[BEAR]

Of your lengthy post what I find most interesting is the "second Southland at-large team" possibility. In my projections I have UCA beating Sam and Sam being out.

My last four in are Eastern Washington, Towson, UT-Martin and Chattanooga. I don't feel particularly comfortable picking any of these four, honestly, and a 7/6 D-I win club Sam might get consideration here, too, I can see it. I also think a 7-4 UCA team would, too.

Worthy of mention is that if Chatty goes 7-4 they would have a D-II win and would be on a 3-game losing streak going into the tournament. UT-Martin would also be a member of the 7/6 club. What is interesting to me is where Sam, UCA stack up against those two schools.

If EWU and Towson go 0-2 (Very possible) that would open up even more at-large possibilities for a 7-4 Sam/7-4 UCA to slide in.

I like UT Martin being in. They have played a very strong season.

[Nickels]

Damn Bear. I don't think you missed anything. LOL.

After all of this work, the teams shouldn't even play. We should just let you decide who is worthy.


Honestly though, I think we choke in our typical Connway fashion. A preseason #2-3 team will end the season with it's best win being IW or a D2 team. SMH.

[melloware13]

Of your lengthy post what I find most interesting is the "second Southland at-large team" possibility. In my projections I have UCA beating Sam and Sam being out.

My last four in are Eastern Washington, Towson, UT-Martin and Chattanooga. I don't feel particularly comfortable picking any of these four, honestly, and a 7/6 D-I win club Sam might get consideration here, too, I can see it. I also think a 7-4 UCA team would, too.

Worthy of mention is that if Chatty goes 7-4 they would have a D-II win and would be on a 3-game losing streak going into the tournament. UT-Martin would also be a member of the 7/6 club. What is interesting to me is where Sam, UCA stack up against those two schools.

If EWU and Towson go 0-2 (Very possible) that would open up even more at-large possibilities for a 7-4 Sam/7-4 UCA to slide in.

Tigers end with URI, while the Rams won that match-up last year, this seasons Tigers will have something to play for and the game is in MD. I think if Chatty falls to El Cid, they might need to beat the Noles to get in due to their loss to Mercer. I have UTM in if they beat SEMO, EIU would be quality enough of a loss to survive I feel. EWU should be in if they beat Montana, having 7 DI wins and mostly quality losses. If El Cid keeps it close to Chatty, they should be in, with the winner of that game the AQ. Barring any upsets, I see only one spot between UCA and SHSU, going to the winner.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I like UT Martin being in. They have played a very strong season.

My reservations about UT-Martin are as follows: 1. If they lose, they can do no better than 6-4 with 5 D-I wins. 2. Most of their resume comes from beating EKU last week, and "playing Jacksonville State tough" in a loss. At 7-3 they look good in a weak field as the second-placed OVC team. But they need to win both games, and only six of those wins are against D-I schools.

There is a scenario where UT-Martin goes 6-4, EIU goes 6-5, and EKU goes 6-5. That would essentially make the OVC a one-bid conference and would open up another at-large bid for someone, too. Not likely but it could happen.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Tigers end with URI, while the Rams won that match-up last year, this seasons Tigers will have something to play for and the game is in MD. I think if Chatty falls to El Cid, they might need to beat the Noles to get in due to their loss to Mercer. I have UTM in if they beat SEMO, EIU would be quality enough of a loss to survive I feel. EWU should be in if they beat Montana, having 7 DI wins and mostly quality losses. If El Cid keeps it close to Chatty, they should be in, with the winner of that game the AQ. Barring any upsets, I see only one spot between UCA and SHSU, going to the winner.

I see something close to this too, which is why I have Towson in there even at 7-4. Towson has a shady OOC slate to answer for (St. Francis PA, very close win over Holy Cross) and a very bad loss to Elon. If they beat the Tribe and URI though they are a lock for inclusion.

Pertinent to this thread, do people think "margin of victory" in the Citadel/Chatty clash will play a factor? For example, if The Citadel blows out the Mocs, does that make a difference against the Mocs playoff chances vs. a tightly-contested game?

[BEAR]

Another question: Does the SLC have a better chance of getting in 3 teams if UCA (throws ;) ) the SHSU game? Not saying UCA will win it or lose it but what's best for the league?

Has a league ever done that before?

I mean after this week UCA will know whether or not they actually have a chance to tie for the title..and if not..why not do the above?

[Bear84]

Another question: Does the SLC have a better chance of getting in 3 teams if UCA (throws ;) ) the SHSU game? Not saying UCA will win it or lose it but what's best for the league?

Has a league ever done that before?

I mean after this week UCA will know whether or not they actually have a chance to tie for the title..and if not..why not do the above?

Throws one for the league? Seriously? Not sure what you're smoking.....

Seriously, I think it is highly unlikely UCA gets in with a loss. There will likely be too many 7-4 teams with better resumes.

[Nickels]

Another question: Does the SLC have a better chance of getting in 3 teams if UCA (throws ;) ) the SHSU game? Not saying UCA will win it or lose it but what's best for the league?

Has a league ever done that before?

You guys could try to choke but I think you're underestimating SHSU's ability to lose big games.

[mvemjsunpx]

Sam Houston has made it with only 6 DI wins before. Keep that in mind…

[McTailGator]

In my projections I have UCA beating Sam and Sam being out.


Having seen the two teams play McNeese this year, I'd say UCA is the better team.

By far.

UCA beats SHSU in Conway on that ugly turf.

[msupokes1]

I tend to agree with McTailGator. UCA's defense was much better than SHSU's and their offense wasn't too bad either. I wouldn't want to play them again, especially on that ugly birthday cake they call a football field. I think UCA wins that one.

[Sammy94]

Sam Houston has made it with only 6 DI wins before. Keep that in mind…


The NCAA likes the check Sam writes, its not always about football unfortunately.

And bear, our kicker is out for the year and was terribly missed at Lake Chuck.