Playoffs 'Til I Die: Projecting the Playoff Field, 11/10/2015

[Lehigh Football Nation]

My latest projections.

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015

Damned interesting trying to find those final teams.

[McNeese72]

Hey, that's my photo at the top!!

xthumbsupx

http://www.docsshots.com/img/s6/v137/p1679574939-4.jpg (http://www.docsshots.com/p1071902781/e641c479b)

[BEAR]

I like it.

Not only do you put McNeese as the autobid, but you put UCA as the at-large AND put them in the same bracket as McNeese! Now that's a game I look forward to if it happens!

I don't think we've ever played E. Washington though. The stripes vs. tampon field then onto the Hole. Tell me this was accidental. xlolx

But what happens if UCA loses to SHSU..which I think will happen. That would put UCA losing to two top 25 FCS teams and one that WAS top 25. Hmmm... do they get in with that and having 7 division I wins? Would that bump the 6 win teams out?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I like it.

Not only do you put McNeese as the autobid, but you put UCA as the at-large AND put them in the same bracket as McNeese! Now that's a game I look forward to if it happens!

I don't think we've ever played E. Washington though. The stripes vs. tampon field then onto the Hole. Tell me this was accidental. xlolx

But what happens if UCA loses to SHSU..which I think will happen. That would put UCA losing to two top 25 FCS teams and one that WAS top 25. Hmmm... do they get in with that and having 7 division I wins? Would that bump the 6 win teams out?

It might be enough with a 7-4 record with 7 D-I wins, but it will be damned close. A restless night for sure.

I never thought about it being the battle of weirdly-colored turfs. xlolx

[Grizzlies82]

My latest projections.

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015

Damned interesting trying to find those final teams.

Thank you! Very nice summary as we approach the end of the regular season. Would love to see my Grizzlies in the mix but they need to win these last two to even be in the discussion.

The only thing I see as suspect is the likelihood of the committee selecting two at large teams with only six D1 wins. It's probable there will be a surplus of bubble teams holding seven D1 wins. Therefore I don't know if any of the six win folks are included. If they are included then perhaps only one, but I can't see two getting the nod.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Thank you! Very nice summary as we approach the end of the regular season. Would love to see my Grizzlies in the mix but they need to win these last two to even be in the discussion.

The only thing I see as suspect is the likelihood of the committee selecting two at large teams with only six D1 wins. It's probable there will be a surplus of bubble teams holding seven D1 wins. Therefore I don't know if any of the six win folks are included. If they are included then perhaps only one, but I can't see two getting the nod.

I really, really struggled with that too. The question came down to this: does a SoCon get 0 at-larges, does the OVC get 0 at-larges, or do you put two 7/6 D-I win clubs in as at-larges? Only very reluctantly I decided that two would get in over the 7-4 teams.

What I do think is that there might be fewer 7-4 teams than you might imagine, and some of those, like Towson, perhaps a UCA, won't have terrific resumes.

[Mayville Bison]

My latest projections.

http://www.college-sports-journal.com/index.php/ncaa-division-i-sports/fcs-football/963-playoffs-till-i-die-projecting-the-fcs-playoff-field-11-10-2015

Damned interesting trying to find those final teams.

First off, I like your analysis on the different conferences. It definitely helps put things into perspective.

I think you have mostly the right teams selected. I have 21 of the 24 the same as you and 7 of the 8 seeds the same (I think W&M beats Richmond).

Only thing you need to work on is the regionalization factors. For example, you have Bryant playing JMU which they are 550ish miles apart. Bryant will most likely be sent to Fordham which is less than 200 miles away. UT-Martin/Chattanooga (good pairing) would most likely be sent to JSU in the second round. The Citadel/CCU (another good pairing) would definitely be sent to CSU in the second round. Just some little things to work on.

I don't necessarily agree with your seed order, but wouldn't put money on it not happening.

[F'N Hawks]

Portland State did play a D2 team. Do they get credit for the 2 FBS wins to outweigh the D2 win? If they lose their last two they technically only have 6 FCS/FBS wins.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Portland State did play a D2 team. Do they get credit for the 2 FBS wins to outweigh the D2 win? If they lose their last two they technically only have 6 FCS/FBS wins.

Good point, and to that point I say, yes, yes, yes, yes the Wazzu and North Texas State wins outweigh that. xlolx

[Skyhawk71]

Most points allowed this season by Jacksonville State 41 vs. UTM (Final 48-41); total points of EKU & EIU vs. Jacksonville State combined 3; IF UTM upsets EIU and wins out how in the world do you think that an EKU that goes 7-4; that lost to UTM at home gets in over a 7-3 UTM with the other two losses being Ole Miss and Arkansas- just want to understand the logic; by no means am I saying that UTM wins out, but with the number of teams in the playoffs now that would be a joke-

[FormerPokeCenter]

Did you get paid?? Or a photo credit?? And how did they get the watermark off the image???? ;)



Hey, that's my photo at the top!!

xthumbsupx

http://www.docsshots.com/img/s6/v137/p1679574939-4.jpg (http://www.docsshots.com/p1071902781/e641c479b)

[McNeese72]

Did you get paid?? Or a photo credit?? And how did they get the watermark off the image???? ;)

They got the photo from Matt and the photo credit, if you get the magnifying glass out is in the lower right hand corner going up the right side.

Doc

[JALMOND]

I'd like for Portland State to get one more win. Sure we got the two FBS wins, but they are offset by two questionable losses. In following FCS football for awhile, I've seen that if you leave your chances up to the committee, you may not like the results.

[SUUTbird]

I'd like for Portland State to get one more win. Sure we got the two FBS wins, but they are offset by two questionable losses. In following FCS football for awhile, I've seen that if you leave your chances up to the committee, you may not like the results.

The way EWU has been playing lately I would say that your guys best chance of winning would be against the Eagles. This upcoming game of PSU vs SUU honestly is to close to call in my opinion, going to come down to which PSU team shows up and if we can get some turnovers.

[crossfire07]

But what happens if UCA loses to SHSU..which I think will happen. That would put UCA losing to two top 25 FCS teams and one that WAS top 25. Hmmm... do they get in with that and having 7 division I wins? Would that bump the 6 win teams out?

After seeing both teams play, I don't see UCA losing. Your coaches have some good film to watch after this weekend. Definitely shows how to keep their offense out of the end zone.

[Big_Fan]

Most points allowed this season by Jacksonville State 41 vs. UTM (Final 48-41); total points of EKU & EIU vs. Jacksonville State combined 3; IF UTM upsets EIU and wins out how in the world do you think that an EKU that goes 7-4; that lost to UTM at home gets in over a 7-3 UTM with the other two losses being Ole Miss and Arkansas- just want to understand the logic; by no means am I saying that UTM wins out, but with the number of teams in the playoffs now that would be a joke-

Don't get offended... he has NDSU and ISUr as #1 and #2 seeds. JSU will be the #1 seed unless we crap the bed against SEMO and/or Murray.

Given what is at stake, I don't see us crapping the bed. The Gamecocks should be motivated to make statements.

[JSUSoutherner]

Most points allowed this season by Jacksonville State 41 vs. UTM (Final 48-41); total points of EKU & EIU vs. Jacksonville State combined 3; IF UTM upsets EIU and wins out how in the world do you think that an EKU that goes 7-4; that lost to UTM at home gets in over a 7-3 UTM with the other two losses being Ole Miss and Arkansas- just want to understand the logic; by no means am I saying that UTM wins out, but with the number of teams in the playoffs now that would be a joke-
I don't see EIU beating either EKU or UTM, to do that you need to score, to score you need an offense, and EIU doesn't have one. UTM and EKU will go 7-3 (only loss to SEC's and us) and 7-4 (2 P5's, us, and UTM) respectively. UTM will be in the playoffs if they win out. If EKU anhillates the rest of their schedule they can hang their hat on thrashing EIU and OT with Kentucky and make a case but they will need some luck.

[ngineer]

What the heck is happening to you, Chuck. I thought you were such a "Lehigh homer". Mountain Hawks always show up on 'the tundra' at Colgate, and Fordham will get 'rocked' in DC!

[Sycamore62]

I don't see EIU beating either EKU or UTM, to do that you need to score, to score you need an offense, and EIU doesn't have one. UTM and EKU will go 7-3 (only loss to SEC's and us) and 7-4 (2 P5's, us, and UTM) respectively. UTM will be in the playoffs if they win out. If EKU anhillates the rest of their schedule they can hang their hat on thrashing EIU and OT with Kentucky and make a case but they will need some luck.

I dont know about UTM on the road but Id take EIU vs EKU to end the season at home.