Big Sky Tiebreakers?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What a hot mess. Let me see if I have this right.

SUU beats NAU, PSU - Southern Utah outright champs and autobid winner

SUU goes 1-1 against NAU and PSU, EWU goes no better than 1-1 against MONT and PSU - Southern Utah outright champs and autobid winner

SUU beats NAU, loses to PSU, EWU beats MONT and PSU - Southern Utah and Eastern Washington co-champs. Autobid depends on relative ranking of PSU and NAU. SUU and EWU did not play head to head. If Portland State finishes ahead of NAU, Eastern Washington wins the autobid. If NAU finishes ahead of Portland State, Southern Utah wins the autobid.

SUU loses to NAU, beats PSU, EWU beats MONT and PSU - Southern Utah and Eastern Washington co-champs. SUU and EWU did not play head-to-head. Both would have lost to NAU, but beaten everyone else in the Big Sky. Tiebreaker goes to (apparently) Sagarin rating, where SUU is currently 7th (!) and EWU is 23rd. Signs would then point to Southern Utah winning the autobid.

Those are ONLY the scenarios with Southern Utah winning at least 1 game. If they lose to both both NAU and PSU....

...if EWU beats MONT and PSU - Eastern Washington outright champs and autobid winner

...if PSU beats both SUU (given) and EWU, and EWU beats Montana, Portland State or Northern Arizona are co-champs (perhaps against three 5-2 teams) and one of these two would be the autobid winner (I think).
* Portland State and NAU did not play head-to-head
* Portland State holds tiebreakers vs. Eastern Washington (head-to-head), Montana (head-to-head) if they are involved in the tie.
* Northern Arizona can only win the tiebreaker if North Dakota goes 2-0 vs. NoCo and Cal Poly and Montana goes 0-2 vs. EWU (given) and Montana State. That would move North Dakota up in the tiebreakers over Montana and Northern Arizona would win because Portland State lost to the Nodoaks.


Do I have this right?

[Nodak78]

To avoid any headaches. Just wait one week it should be better to figure this out. Much parity in the Big Sky this year.

[UNDColorado]

That is a hot mess!

[mvemjsunpx]

I know NAU will win it in a 3-way tie with SUU and EWU at 6-2 because they would have wins over both. This happens if NAU wins out (beating SUU), SUU loses to PSU, PSU loses to EWU, EWU loses to Montana, and Montana loses to MSU.

[grizband]

Southern Utah would still have the tiebreaker, but I believe if SUU loses their remaining two games, and Montana wins out, the Griz could tie for the conference title.

[Grizalltheway]

Southern Utah would still have the tiebreaker, but I believe if SUU loses their remaining two games, and Montana wins out, the Griz could tie for the conference title.

So what's the first tie breaker between two teams that haven't played each other? Overall record?

[mvemjsunpx]

So what's the first tie breaker between two teams that haven't played each other? Overall record?

The order is this…


1. Head to head (including non-conference games against conference opponents)

2. Common opponents starting at the top of the conference (including non-conference games against conference opponents)

3. Common non-conference opponents

4. Sagarins

[mvemjsunpx]

Southern Utah would still have the tiebreaker, but I believe if SUU loses their remaining two games, and Montana wins out, the Griz could tie for the conference title.

Right. If EWU also beats PSU, the Griz would get the auto.

[grizband]

Right. If EWU also beats PSU, the Griz would get the auto.
What a crazy season in the Big Sky!

[veinup]

Southern Utah would still have the tiebreaker, but I believe if SUU loses their remaining two games, and Montana wins out, the Griz could tie for the conference title.

if the griz tie for the conference title i'll eat a chunk of my hat, film it, and put a link to the video up here.

[UNDColorado]

if the griz tie for the conference title i'll eat a chunk of my hat, film it, and put a link to the video up here.

Ha! Just awesome!

[Grizalltheway]

if the griz tie for the conference title i'll eat a chunk of my hat, film it, and put a link to the video up here.

Could have sworn you said you'd do this if we beat NDSU.xchinscratchx

[mvemjsunpx]

A general idea to convey initially is that the current 2-loss teams are more likely to win tiebreakers at 6-2 while the current top-two teams have almost no chance to win tiebreakers if they fall to 6-2.


Southern Utah - Gets the auto for sure with 2 wins or with a win & an EWU loss. If SUU and EWU tie at 7-1, it would come down to Sagarins which SUU would probably win but not necessarily. It appears impossible for SUU to win the auto if they lose out and finish 6-2.

Eastern Washington - Gets the auto for sure with 2 wins & 2 SUU losses. They also get it in a two-way tie with SUU at 6-2 (common games vs. PSU), but this scenario is exceedingly unlikely because it would require NAU to lose to Sac at home. If SUU and EWU tie at 7-1, it would come down to Sagarins which SUU would probably win but not necessarily.

Portland St. - I believe they are guaranteed the auto if they win out and SUU loses to NAU.

Montana - They'll get the auto if they win out, SUU loses out, and EWU beats PSU. That forces a tie with EWU & SUU which the Griz win because they would beat EWU (adding in NAU doesn't change anything because UM also beat NAU). That's 5 games that have to go a particular way: UM over EWU; PSU over SUU; NAU over SUU; UM over MSU; EWU over PSU.

Northern Arizona - They'll get the auto for sure if they end up in a three-way tie with SUU and EWU since they would have wins over both. That's 6 games that have to go a particular way: NAU over Sac; PSU over SUU; UM over EWU; NAU over SUU; EWU over PSU; MSU over UM.

[JALMOND]

I believe the tiebreakers only determine the autobid. Anyone tied for first are noted as "co-champions" for the record.

[mvemjsunpx]

Ignore what I earlier said about a possible 4-way tie where NAU would beat PSU on common games if NoDak finished ahead of Montana. I forgot that NAU didn't play NoDak, so PSU would win that tie on common games against Montana for sure.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Ignore what I earlier said about a possible 4-way tie where NAU would beat PSU on common games if NoDak finished ahead of Montana. I forgot that NAU didn't play NoDak, so PSU would win that tie on common games against Montana for sure.

This is where I was confused. Do they only compare on common opponents, i.e. would the Nodoak loss be "skipped" in a head-to-head PSU/NAU comparison?

[mvemjsunpx]

This is where I was confused. Do they only compare on common opponents, i.e. would the Nodoak loss be "skipped" in a head-to-head PSU/NAU comparison?

I believe so. NAU's losses were Montana, who PSU beat, and Davis, who PSU didn't play. PSU's losses were NoDak, who NAU didn't play, and NoCo, who NAU beat. I guess it might be possible for NoCo to finish ahead of Montana, though, which would give NAU the tiebreaker in that 4-way tie. The possible multi-way ties in the middle of the standings are a bit to convoluted to be worth looking at, however.

In basketball, they look at common record against other ties collectively, but it doesn't appear they do that in football where not everyone plays each other. The publicly listed form of the tiebreaking procedure doesn't explicitly clarify these kind of scenarios, though.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Something to keep in mind is relative Sagarin ratings. Currently they are:

SUU 7
Portland State 13
EWU 23
Montana 24
NAU 27

This looms very large if, as seems likely, non-common opponents are tossed out of the tiebreakers.

It seems unlikely that EWU, Montana, NAU could catch SUU, Portland State in Sagarin, especially since Portland State and SUU play each other.

[mvemjsunpx]

Something to keep in mind is relative Sagarin ratings. Currently they are:

SUU 7
Portland State 13
EWU 23
Montana 24
NAU 27

This looms very large if, as seems likely, non-common opponents are tossed out of the tiebreakers.

It seems unlikely that EWU, Montana, NAU could catch SUU, Portland State in Sagarin, especially since Portland State and SUU play each other.

The EWU/SUU tie at 7-1 is the only one that could come down to Sagarins, I believe. Head-to-head takes care of most scenarios while common games gets whatever's left.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

So now it's:

If SUU beats NAU, Southern Utah are Big Sky Champs and autobid winners

If NAU beats SUU, three or four teams including Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, the Portland State/Eastern Washington winner, and possibly Montana are co-champions

One will get the autobid, but who?