Big Sky Power Rankings 11-9

[JALMOND]

Only two weeks left in the conference season and we finally have a clear favorite, at least this week. Of course that all could change this weekend but, compared to the rest of the teams, shockingly Southern Utah is at the top (no EWU, no Montana schools). Who could have predicted that at the beginning of the season. Here are this week's power rankings (last week in parenthesis). All are my opinion only and all up for discussion (of course). Down the stretch they come.

1. Southern Utah (2)---Last week won at Montana State 34-23, this week at Portland State---A lot of parity across the conference this year, yet the Thunderbirds have pushed back all conference opponents they've faced so far. However, they have a tough finish coming up, but for now they are clearly the better team so far.

2. Northern Arizona (4)---Last week won at Eastern Washington 52-30, this week Sacramento State at home---The Lumberjacks picked a great time to play their best football and slamming the door on the critics expecting their usual late season swoon. They do finish at Southern Utah but they get a tuneup this weekend.

3. Portland State (1)---Last week lost at Northern Colorado 35-32, this weekend Southern Utah at home---Equally surprising about the wins that the Vikings have got this season are the teams that they have lost to during the season. They clearly play to the level of their opponent which will make the end of the season interesting.

4. Eastern Washington (3)---Last week, lost to Northern Arizona at home 52-30, this weekend at Montana---What has been so odd about the Eagles season is that people have been expecting them to take charge of the conference, yet that hasn't happened. They now have a large hill to climb.

5. Weber State (5)---Last week beat UC-Davis at home 23-3, this week bye---The Wildcats may not have much to play for but they still are playing out the string. Two weeks to prepare for their rivalry game will certainly feel good at this point in the season.

6. Montana (6)---Last week won at Idaho State 33-27, this week Eastern Washington at home---The Grizzlies showed a little bit of magic last week and kept their slim hopes at the playoffs alive win a bizarre road win. They still have a tough stretch coming up and need to win out for any shot.

7. North Dakota (7)---Last week bye, this week Northern Colorado at home---All the excitement around the conference last week and the Dakotans stayed home and enjoyed it all. They have some slim hopes for the playoffs as well, but they can't afford to stub their toes along the way.

8. Northern Colorado (10)---Last week beat Portland State at home 35-32, this week at North Dakota---Well, at least at home the Bears have shown they can play (and beat) anyone in the conference, yet they seem to have problems on the road. But they are now on the verge of a pretty good year.

9. Cal Poly (9)---Last week beat Sacramento State at home 36-14, this week at UC-Davis---The Mustangs showed some moxie last week in winning a game that they should have. They continue to play out the string and try to close out the season on a good note.

10. Montana State (8)---Last week lost to Southern Utah at home 34-23 this week at Idaho State---The Bobcats defense put together a strong effort once again at home, yet their offense could not get going. Their promising season is coming down around them. They were not thinking they'd be out of it this early.

11. Idaho State (12)---Last week lost to Montana at home 33-27, this week Montana State at home---The Bengals came within a rather bizarre finish last week of almost getting an impressive home win. They get another shot at a good win this weekend and seek to finish the season strong.

12. Sacramento State (11)---Last week lost at Cal Poly 36-14, this week at Northern Arizona---The Hornets have been playing out the season for awhile now and unfortunately, it has shown in a rather ugly way. However, a strong finish could still happen and get them ready for next year.

13. UC-Davis (13)---Last week lost at Weber State 23-3, this week Cal Poly at home---Like their Causeway mates, the Aggies have been preparing for next season rather early. However, they seem to have packed up their offense and started to rely on their defense.

RECAP: 1 clearly out front, 2, then 3, then 4, then 5-8 holding steady, 9-11 trying to keep up, 12-13 far behind.

[Nodak78]

Some big games in the Big Sky this week. the shake out unfolds.
SUU vs PSU
EWU vs UM
N Co vs UND
Sac St vs UNA
Which teams will live for another week.

[wapiti]

1. Southern Utah ---Still needs 1 more win to earn 7. @PSU , NAU. I do not see either of these two games as being easy. Win one of them and the Thunderbirds are in, lose both and SU is a bubble team.

2. Northern Arizona --- Still needs 2 wins to earn 7. Sac St, @SU If NAU loses both they are done, if NAU loses one they are a bubble team, win both and they are in.

3. Portland State ---I think PSU at 6 wins will be in. SU, @EWU. Win the next two and PSU has a good chance at a high seed.

4. Eastern Washington --- Needs one more to earn 7. @UM, PSU Lose both and EWU is a bubble team, win one they are in, win both and earn a seed.

6. Montana ---EWU, @MSU. Needs to win both to earn 7. Lose one and UM is a shaky bubble team.

7. North Dakota ---Needs two more to earn 7. NC, @CP Win both and they are in. Lose both and they are out. go 1-1 and they are a bubble team.

[deez_na]

1. Southern Utah ---Still needs 1 more win to earn 7. @PSU , NAU. I do not see either of these two games as being easy. Win one of them and the Thunderbirds are in, lose both and SU is a bubble team.

2. Northern Arizona --- Still needs 2 wins to earn 7. Sac St, @SU If NAU loses both they are done, if NAU loses one they are a bubble team, win both and they are in.

3. Portland State ---I think PSU at 6 wins will be in. SU, @EWU. Win the next two and PSU has a good chance at a high seed.

4. Eastern Washington --- Needs one more to earn 7. @UM, PSU Lose both and EWU is a bubble team, win one they are in, win both and earn a seed.

6. Montana ---EWU, @MSU. Needs to win both to earn 7. Lose one and UM is a shaky bubble team.

7. North Dakota ---Needs two more to earn 7. NC, @CP Win both and they are in. Lose both and they are out. go 1-1 and they are a bubble team.
If UND goes 1-1 they are out. They need both wins to get 7 wins on the year.

[Nodak78]

Same goes for Montana they need both wins to get to 7 wins.

[FCSwatcher]

7 isn't the number. Read the rules.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf


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[SUUTbird]

7 isn't the number. Read the rules.

It may not be the "official" number but it is the number of games that every team shoots for to solidify their playoff chances. Looking forward to what should be a great game @ PSU, besides one bad hiccup at SDSU my T-Birds have been playing great!

[mvemjsunpx]

It may not be the "official" number but it is the number of games that every team shoots for to solidify their playoff chances. Looking forward to what should be a great game @ PSU, besides one bad hiccup at SDSU my T-Birds have been playing great!

Right. I doubt anyone's getting in at 6-5. The only team I would think with any hope of that is Northern Iowa.

[kalm]

Right. I doubt anyone's getting in at 6-5. The only team I would think with any hope of that is Northern Iowa.

This.

And EWU is not getting a seed at 8-3 either.

[ewueagle2010]

This.

And EWU is not getting a seed at 8-3 either.

I have to disagree. An 8-3 EWU team would get a 7 or 8 seed if they also got the BSC autobid, IMO.

[deez_na]

7 isn't the number. Read the rules.
http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf


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No but going 6-5 and losing to Idaho St sure in the heck won't put them on the bubble or even near it. If a 6-5 team gets in it's cause they won the autobid in a pathetic league.

[kalm]

I have to disagree. An 8-3 EWU team would get a 7 or 8 seed if they also got the BSC autobid, IMO.

You'd need at least need 3 out of the following to lose a game and then it would be comparing resume's. Not likely.

JSU -
NDSU
SDSU
ISUr
CSO
CCU
Richmond
JMU
W&M
SUU

[FCSwatcher]

Could be the BSC Powerless Rankings this year


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[UNDColorado]

An argument could be made that there is a lot of parity this year in the BSC.

[Grizalltheway]

An argument could be made that there is a lot of parity this year in the BSC.

Tough to say until the playoffs roll around. But I think SUU, PSU, EWU, NAU and UM could all make some noise if they make it.

[Casey_Orourke]

I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am xnodx), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in.

[Peems]

Tough to say until the playoffs roll around. But I think SUU, PSU, EWU, NAU and UM could all make some noise if they make it.

I disagree. I'd be surprised if there are any big sky teams in the quarterfinals this year. There is not one complete team in the league. PSU and SUU MIGHT be the closest, but both have their flaws.

[FCSwatcher]

I disagree. I'd be surprised if there are any big sky teams in the quarterfinals this year. There is not one complete team in the league. PSU and SUU MIGHT be the closest, but both have their flaws.

I think the only way any BSC team gets past the second round is someone gets a seed, and plays another BSC team in the second round due to regionalization.

The local Cat/Griz game party should be interesting next week. Not much excitement about it here this year.


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[mvemjsunpx]

I disagree. I'd be surprised if there are any big sky teams in the quarterfinals this year. There is not one complete team in the league. PSU and SUU MIGHT be the closest, but both have their flaws.

There are only a few complete teams anywhere.

[Peems]

There are only a few complete teams anywhere.

True. Let me revise my statement. None of the teams in the Big Sky are good enough to make any real playoff run. Their weaknesses are too extreme.

[Missingnumber7]

I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am xnodx), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in.
A couple things...
1. The SRS is a combination of Strength of Schedule with up to 21 point margin of victory + WL that you referenced doubled.
2. Your math is off, PSU has an additional 2 points available meaning they could get to either 7.35 if they win out, if they win on the road and lose at home (+1.25/-1.25) they would remain at 5.35, if they win at home and lose on the road (+.75/-.75) they would still remain at 5.35.

[mvemjsunpx]

True. Let me revise my statement. None of the teams in the Big Sky are good enough to make any real playoff run. Their weaknesses are too extreme.

Maybe… Portland State doesn't have any obvious statistical weaknesses, though, and I think they'll get a seed if they win out (SUU probably will get a seed in that scenario, too, but I don't think they'll win in Portland).

[Casey_Orourke]

A couple things...
1. The SRS is a combination of Strength of Schedule with up to 21 point margin of victory + WL that you referenced doubled.
2. Your math is off, PSU has an additional 2 points available meaning they could get to either 7.35 if they win out, if they win on the road and lose at home (+1.25/-1.25) they would remain at 5.35, if they win at home and lose on the road (+.75/-.75) they would still remain at 5.35.

Thank you for the correction.

I have to admit that given PSU's past history, all this playoff talk is new uncharted territory for me (and probably a few others) where PSU football is concerned. Compared to those who have been living and breathing all this playoff talk for the past few years, I'm still a relative "babe in the woods."