Big South Playoff picture

[knucklehead]

Looks like to me that the clearest path is CSU for the Auto Bid. Coastal will get in with an at large. Anyone else.

Flames Nation's thoughts here: http://www.libertyflamesnation.com/csu-beat-coastal-what-does-it-mean-for-lu/

Not impossible for LU, but they need a miracle.

Discuss.

[BisonTru]

How does your tie breaker work?

If Liberty beats CSU but loses to CCU who gets the bid?

[Professor Chaos]

http://www.bigsouthsports.com/entries/big-south-football-tiebreaker-procedure-205024781


Two-Way Tie
i. Head-to-head competition.
ii. If a tie still exists, then the records of the tying teams against the next highest team shall be compared.
iii. The process outlined in step "ii" shall continue through the last team, if necessary.
iv. Points allowed in Conference games.
v. Sagarin ranking.
vi. If a tie still remains, the automatic qualifier shall be drawn by lot.



Multiple Ties
i. Composite records between the tying teams shall be evaluated to determine if one team has won more games against the other tying teams.
ii. In the event step "i" does not resolve the multiple ties or reduce the multiple tie to one tie, then a comparison of records of the tying teams against the next highest team shall be compared.
iii. The process outlined in step "ii" shall continue through the last team, if necessary.
iv. Points allowed in Conference games.
v. Sagarin ranking.
vi. If ties still remain, the automatic qualifier shall be drawn by lot. If the multiple ties are reduced to a tie between two teams, the two-way tiebreaker formula shall be utlized.


So looks like if they all end up 5-1 losing to each other it'll come down to fewest points allowed in conference games. Not sure I like that approach a lot but looks like CSU has the clear edge with only 39 points allowed in 4 conference games compared to 70 and 89 points allowed for CCU and Liberty, respectively, with only 3 conference games played each (source: http://espn.go.com/college-football/standings/_/view/fcs/group/40).

EDIT: Nevermind, Liberty has two losses in conference already I guess. But regardless who's involved a 3 way tie would favor CSU in most cases where it would come down to points allowed in conference losses with how stingy their defense has been this year.

[Milktruck74]

I'm not sure "points allowed" is a good indicator of a teams worth. It tend to favor a team with a slow methodical offense and strong defense over a high scoring fast paced offense....a better comparison may be point margin. In this aspect if you win 48-14 it isn't considered as good as a team that wins 7-6.....in point margin, if you win 48-38, you get the same credit as the 13-3 team.

[Professor Chaos]

I'm not sure "points allowed" is a good indicator of a teams worth. It tend to favor a team with a slow methodical offense and strong defense over a high scoring fast paced offense....a better comparison may be point margin. In this aspect if you win 48-14 it isn't considered as good as a team that wins 7-6.....in point margin, if you win 48-38, you get the same credit as the 13-3 team.
Yeah, I agree. I would guess the reason why they do it that way is so teams don't run up the score in their final game(s) of the year against lesser conference opponents to put themselves in a better position get a tie breaker since it doesn't matter if you win 35-14 or 56-14 in this system.

[CID1990]

Any playoff picture discussion about the Big South that includes any teams other than CSU and CCU is a pipe dream. Not happening.


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[kdinva]

It'll be only CSU and CCU from The Big South.......barring a disasterous finish by either team.....

[jmrepak]

So for those questioning the tiebreaker you should know a little of the history. Coastal tied for the Big South Championship multiple times in the last 10+ years. However, almost every time there was a tie Coastal ended up with the autobid. The other teams kept complaining so the Conference changed the tiebreaker system and then we still ended up getting it the last time there was a 3-way tie.

Anyways, the only way that Liberty gets in is for CSU to lose to Kennesaw, Kennesaw to lose one of it's other two and then for Liberty to win out. That creates a possibility of a 3 way tie between CSU, Liberty and the winner of CCU vs Kennesaw State (maybe even a 4 way tie with all of them if Coastal loses to GWU but beats Kenn and Kenn beats CSU and Presby) or just a two way tie between Liberty and one of the other three. Liberty wins every tie breaker by beating CCU, CSU and Kennesaw State in the H2H. That would give Liberty the autobid, but good luck with all of that falling into place. By the end of next week we will most likely know who is going to the playoffs with the auto by CSU beating Kenn. If that happens then the Liberty game doesn't mean jack. The only other team that can end with 1 conf loss is Coastal and CSU will have the H2H.

the short version is that there is probably a 90-95% probability that Liberty only has 3 games left this year, CSU is most likely going to the playoffs, and Coastal still needs to win 2 of the next 3 to all but guarantee ourselves a spot.

[rokamortis]

Any playoff picture discussion about the Big South that includes any teams other than CSU and CCU is a pipe dream. Not happening.


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Liberty's QB promised they would win out and make the playoffs. They are dreamers ...

[CasualFan]

Those of you asking about the possible ties may have forgotten that Liberty already has 2 conference losses. Doesn't it seem like the Big South is always a mess? Only two teams are out of it: Monmouth and Presbyterian.

The worst Charleston Southern can finish is 4-2 in the Big South. They would have to lose their final two games against Kennesaw State and Liberty.

Worst case:
Nov 7 - Kennesaw State over Charleston Southern, G-W over Coastal, and Liberty over Presbyterian.
Nov. 14 - Liberty over Charleston Southern, Kennesaw State over Coastal
Nov. 19 - Liberty over Coastal
Nov. 21 - G-W over Monmouth, KSU over Presbyterian

That results in a 4-way tie at 4-2 in conference (Charleston Southern, Liberty, Kennesaw State, and Gardner-Webb). I don't think Coastal can be part of a 4-way tie, but I didn't try very hard to make it work.

[ElCid]

Those of you asking about the possible ties may have forgotten that Liberty already has 2 conference losses. Doesn't it seem like the Big South is always a mess? Only two teams are out of it: Monmouth and Presbyterian.

The worst Charleston Southern can finish is 4-2 in the Big South. They would have to lose their final two games against Kennesaw State and Liberty.

Worst case:
Nov 7 - Kennesaw State over Charleston Southern, G-W over Coastal, and Liberty over Presbyterian.
Nov. 14 - Liberty over Charleston Southern, Kennesaw State over Coastal
Nov. 19 - Liberty over Coastal
Nov. 21 - G-W over Monmouth, KSU over Presbyterian

That results in a 4-way tie at 4-2 in conference (Charleston Southern, Liberty, Kennesaw State, and Gardner-Webb). I don't think Coastal can be part of a 4-way tie, but I didn't try very hard to make it work.

Let me start by saying I think both CCU and CSU deserve to be in. That said, and I applaud you figuring it all out, but if Kennesaw St wins against either CSU or CCU, then none of you deserve to be in. Not taking away from their great start this year, but seriously?

[CasualFan]

Oh I agree. It would almost certainly result in only one team getting in, and it would be an epic meltdown. Just eyeballing it, but that's probably 5 upsets out of 8 games.

[ElCid]

Oh I agree. It would almost certainly result in only one team getting in, and it would be an epic meltdown. Just eyeballing it, but that's probably 5 upsets out of 8 games.

When stuff like that happens, it is time to buy lottery tickets.xsmiley_wix