Bracketology 2.0

[FargoBison]

Very tough bracketology this week, hard to sort through the mess of three loss teams. Kept going back and forth on McNeese and PSU for the last seed.

WIU at EWU vs 1. Illinois State
SUU at Montana vs 8. McNeese State

Duquesne at Fordham vs 5. JMU
UT-Martin at William and Mary vs 4. Richmond

Dayton at EKU vs 6. Chattanooga
Charleston Southern at The Citadel vs 3. CCU

SDSU at Montana State vs 7. NDSU
PSU at SHSU vs 2. JSU

Autobids: EWU, CCU, Richmond, Ill State, Duquesne, JSU, Fordham, Dayton, Chattanooga, McNeese State
At-Large: NDSU, JMU, William and Mary, Portland State, The Citadel, Charleston Southern, SDSU, UT-Martin, SUU, Montana, Montana State, SHSU, WIU, EKU

Bubble: UNI, UT-Martin, USD, Indiana St, NAU, UNC, Towson, EIU, WCU, UCA and SLU

[FargoBison]

Bracket from Nobowls.com

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png

[kalm]

Not saying it couldn't happen but 5 bids from BSC and not one seed would be weird.

[dbackjon]

Portland State should be a seed.

[Grizalltheway]

Portland State should be a seed.

I know these are just projections, but they still have 3, maybe 4 very lose-able games left.

I think the BSC will have a seed, but still too early to guess who it will be.

[dbackjon]

I know these are just projections, but they still have 3, maybe 4 very lose-able games left.

I think the BSC will have a seed, but still too early to guess who it will be.

as do most of the other seeds

[JALMOND]

I know these are just projections, but they still have 3, maybe 4 very lose-able games left.

I think the BSC will have a seed, but still too early to guess who it will be.

I think we need to beat Montana, Northern Colorado and either Southern Utah or EWU in order to get a seed. That would put us at 9-2 with two FBS wins and a P5 win. But, a lot of football still to play.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Bracket from Nobowls.com

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png

If we miraculously win out and make it there would be change in this one. They would send SDSU to NDSU in second round, and us to Illinois State in second round.

[Silenoz]

First bracket has two Big Sky teams playing in the first round, which I'm assuming still can't be done

Second one has N. Iowa outbidding Montana State. Not happening.

[kalm]

I think we need to beat Montana, Northern Colorado and either Southern Utah or EWU in order to get a seed. That would put us at 9-2 with two FBS wins and a P5 win. But, a lot of football still to play.

Yep. And if you were to win out, you should get the 2.

[FargoBison]

First bracket has two Big Sky teams playing in the first round, which I'm assuming still can't be done

Second one has N. Iowa outbidding Montana State. Not happening.

Montana and SUU will not play each other, thus they can be matched up against each other. This happened last year with SHSU and SLU.

[ElCid]

McNeese has a good shot to win out at 10-0 (they had their 1 FBS Canx due to weather). But by far they have the weakest SOS in the all of top 25 (#88). Not bashing on them, and 10-0 is awesome, but they are below Portland, (27) and even Fordham (60), and Dayton is only at 102xeyebrowx. If they slip up once I think they lose their seed. Still a lot of ball to play yet though. Might look much different in a few weeks. CCU, UTC, ISU, JSU, and JMU all have a couple tough games coming up. There will be fallout from these.

[McNeese72]

McNeese has a good shot to win out at 10-0 (they had their 1 FBS Canx due to weather). But by far they have the weakest SOS in the all of top 25 (#88). Not bashing on them, and 10-0 is awesome, but they are below Portland, (27) and even Fordham (60), and Dayton is only at 102xeyebrowx. If they slip up once I think they lose their seed. Still a lot of ball to play yet though. Might look much different in a few weeks. CCU, UTC, ISU, JSU, and JMU all have a couple tough games coming up. There will be fallout from these.

Yep, that's what I have been saying. We can only play who they put in front of us and we haven't played anybody good yet. So even we don't know if we are really any good or not.

[ElCid]

Yep, that's what I have been saying. We can only play who they put in front of us and we haven't played anybody good yet. So even we don't know if we are really any good or not.

Sammy will be about your only real test, so don't blow it....xthumbsupx Although Central Ark is not a bad team, so you got that going for you.

[tomq04]

There will be a Big Sky seed, and it will be PSU or EWU based on the final game of the season.

Rooting for the Vik's this season, but obviously biased toward watching the Eags lose at home in the Semi's/quarters.

[jimbo65]

Well if we do play Duquense it will be a change from the last two years when we defeated Sacred Heart. SH is about 20-25 miles Northeast of Fordham so travel-wise the matchups made sense. Duquense is in Pittsburgh , not around the corner but who knows.

[blackbeard]

For now any bracket just needs to list "NEC Champion" because no one is standing out from the rest, could be any of 5 teams.

[Grizalltheway]

There will be a Big Sky seed, and it will be PSU or EWU based on the final game of the season.

Rooting for the Vik's this season, but obviously biased toward watching the Eags lose at home in the Semi's/quarters.

Just gonna pencil in wins against Weber, NAU and Montana, huh?xcoffeex

[eiu1999]

OVC autobid will be fun with Jack St, EKU and EIU all 4-0 in conference with UT Martin 4-1.

[Bam]

OVC autobid will be fun with Jack St, EKU and EIU all 4-0 in conference with UT Martin 4-1.

Let the real season start now!!!

[kalm]

Just gonna pencil in wins against Weber, NAU and Montana, huh?xcoffeex

Our defense and special teams play will keep us within striking distance of anyone.

[birdsflyhigh]

Looks like EIU is making a run at it in the OVC which isn't surprising considering they took on what now is playing out as one of the toughest FCS non-cons in the country with road games against ranked WIU, top 25 FBS Northwestern and then a home heartbreaker against one of FCS's best ISU Redbirds. Put ANY FCS team in the nation against that schedule and the result could be 0-3 and everyone saying you're not good.

Since the close call against the Redbirds, EIU has started to put it together and should be able to win their 5th straight this week. After that they've got BOTH Jacksonville St. and E. Kentucky coming to Charleston. The EIU Panthers do indeed have a chance to roar into the playoffs.

For full disclosure: when they're not playing against the Redbirds, I kind of root for the Panthers as they're a looooong time rival and a good FCS program.

[Big_Fan]

OVC autobid will be fun with Jack St, EKU and EIU all 4-0 in conference with UT Martin 4-1.

UTM should slap whoever made out their football schedule this season. They have a solid team (defense is a bit weak), but a playoff bid isn't realistic... 2 SEC teams, and an NAIA team kill them. That essentially give them an 8 game schedule with next to no margin of error. They already lost to JSU. Winning out is the only way to 7 D1 wins, and they have EKU and EIU left to play. In the right bracket they could win a game or two... but there is next to zero chance of them making it in.

[Grizalltheway]

Our defense and special teams play will keep us within striking distance of anyone.

Troof. xthumbsupx

[Missingnumber7]

OVC autobid will be fun with Jack St, EKU and EIU all 4-0 in conference with UT Martin 4-1.

They all play each other, makes it much easier.

[Bam]

Conference play for EKU began a month ago, but it "really " begins Sat. Teams beaten: 2-15 combined in OVC. 4 remaining: 13-4.

[eiu1999]

They all play each other, makes it much easier.


Still fun though.

- - - Updated - - -


Conference play for EKU began a month ago, but it "really " begins Sat. Teams beaten: 2-15 combined in OVC. 4 remaining: 13-4.

That one will be fun to watch. Then JSU comes to Charleston.

[eiu1999]

Looks like EIU is making a run at it in the OVC which isn't surprising considering they took on what now is playing out as one of the toughest FCS non-cons in the country with road games against ranked WIU, top 25 FBS Northwestern and then a home heartbreaker against one of FCS's best ISU Redbirds. Put ANY FCS team in the nation against that schedule and the result could be 0-3 and everyone saying you're not good.

Since the close call against the Redbirds, EIU has started to put it together and should be able to win their 5th straight this week. After that they've got BOTH Jacksonville St. and E. Kentucky coming to Charleston. The EIU Panthers do indeed have a chance to roar into the playoffs.

For full disclosure: when they're not playing against the Redbirds, I kind of root for the Panthers as they're a looooong time rival and a good FCS program.

I'm just glad they've continued to fight after the OCC games.

[Missingnumber7]

Still fun though.
Wasn't it 2 years ago either the Big South or Socon had a 3 way tie and each had a win and loss against the other two?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Looks like EIU is making a run at it in the OVC which isn't surprising considering they took on what now is playing out as one of the toughest FCS non-cons in the country

I think that's UNI on Line 1

[Mayville Bison]

OVC autobid will be fun with Jack St, EKU and EIU all 4-0 in conference with UT Martin 4-1.

This is the part that will be interesting. We haven't learned a whole lot from any of these teams yet outside of JSU's first two games. EIU has home games with JSU and EKU, so I'd put them in the driver's seat right now, but it could turn out multiple different ways.

[rokamortis]

Wasn't it 2 years ago either the Big South or Socon had a 3 way tie and each had a win and loss against the other two?

It's happened at least 2 times I believe when SBU was in the conference.

[1984]

I think that if the NDSU Bison are going to 5peet they will end up having to do it the hard way and play in the first round with no bye.

[deez_na]

Our defense and special teams play will keep us within striking distance of anyone.

lol, your defense. Obviously being humorous.

[Walkon79]

Very tough bracketology this week, hard to sort through the mess of three loss teams. Kept going back and forth on McNeese and PSU for the last seed.

WIU at EWU vs 1. Illinois State
SUU at Montana vs 8. McNeese State

Duquesne at Fordham vs 5. JMU
UT-Martin at William and Mary vs 4. Richmond

Dayton at EKU vs 6. Chattanooga
Charleston Southern at The Citadel vs 3. CCU

SDSU at Montana State vs 7. NDSU
PSU at SHSU vs 2. JSU

Autobids: EWU, CCU, Richmond, Ill State, Duquesne, JSU, Fordham, Dayton, Chattanooga, McNeese State
At-Large: NDSU, JMU, William and Mary, Portland State, The Citadel, Charleston Southern, SDSU, UT-Martin, SUU, Montana, Montana State, SHSU, WIU, EKU

Bubble: UNI, UT-Martin, USD, Indiana St, NAU, UNC, Towson, EIU, WCU, UCA and SLU

Yet you put them on the road in round one?

[gotts]

Yet you put them on the road in round one?

Friendly reminder that first round games are bid-based, not merit-based.

[Missingnumber7]

Yet you put them on the road in round one?

No way PSU puts in a winning bid for a first round playoff game.

[RootinFerDukes]

The guy who runs nobowls.com is a jmu fan, but only 3 CAA teams in? Really? I don't think we've had less than four every year for quite some time.

[Nickels]

No way PSU puts in a winning bid for a first round playoff game.
Especially against us. We've been the highest bidder in the FCS playoffs the last few years.

[tribe_pride]

The guy who runs nobowls.com is a jmu fan, but only 3 CAA teams in? Really? I don't think we've had less than four every year for quite some time.

Look at 2012 and 2013.

[bostonspider]

There are only 3 CAA teams that seem remotely worthy of a bid, and all of them are in Virginia.

[Walkon79]

Friendly reminder that first round games are bid-based, not merit-based.

I gotcha.

[RootinFerDukes]

Well we can't really compare a 16 or 20 team field to a 24 team field, but 2013 the CAA had 3 while 2014 the CAA had 4. This year there is one extra at-large bid in the field since the MEAC won't participate in the playoffs anymore. (UD fans please spare me the "their 2nd place team could technically could get an at-large bid" nonsense).

Multiple Bids by Conference:
2013
Big Sky - 4
CAA - 3
OVC - 3
Southland - 3
MEAC - 2
MVFC - 2
PL - 2
SoCon - 2

I remember that part of the reason why the CAA didn't get a fourth team into the field in 2013 was because the usual one-bid conferences the PL and MEAC both stole bids from some teams that otherwise would've gotten in. Barring another two one-bid conferences stealing bids (such as maybe the Big South again), the CAA should be getting four teams in as last year showed. The MEAC autobid opening only further opens it up and may require 3 bids to be stolen by "lower tier" conferences.

[tribe_pride]

Well we can't really compare a 16 or 20 team field to a 24 team field, but 2013 the CAA had 3 while 2014 the CAA had 4. This year there is one extra at-large bid in the field since the MEAC won't participate in the playoffs anymore. (UD fans please spare me the "their 2nd place team could technically could get an at-large bid" nonsense).

Multiple Bids by Conference:
2013
Big Sky - 4
CAA - 3
OVC - 3
Southland - 3
MEAC - 2
MVFC - 2
PL - 2
SoCon - 2

I remember that part of the reason why the CAA didn't get a fourth team into the field in 2013 was because the usual one-bid conferences the PL and MEAC both stole bids from some teams that otherwise would've gotten in. Barring another two one-bid conferences stealing bids (such as maybe the Big South again), the CAA should be getting four teams in as last year showed. The MEAC autobid opening only further opens it up and may require 3 bids to be stolen by "lower tier" conferences.

In 2013, the 4th best CAA teams were 7-5 with Delaware losing its last 3 games and the Tribe losing its last 2.

This year, only team (outside of W&M, Richmond and JMU) who is better than .500 right now is Towson at 4-3 and they still have W&M to play in Williamsburg. If the Tribe wins that game, best Towson can do is 7-4 with a game @Maine and home vs. Delaware remaining as well. Best Maine can do is 7-4 with games @Nova and @UNH and home versus Towson. Villanova still has Richmond and @JMU to go and is already at 4 losses and Delaware has @Towson and home versus JMU to go with 4 losses. Not definite but good chance there are only 3 CAA teams with 7 wins this year.

[Mattymc727]

UNH could be in at 7-4 with a win over Richmond. Not even sure UNH can compete with the Spiders at this point in time, but the game is in Durham and AGS.

[tribe_pride]

UNH could be in at 7-4 with a win over Richmond. Not even sure UNH can compete with the Spiders at this point in time, but the game is in Durham and AGS.


Forgot about UNH when looking at standings. As you said, same issue as the others as they have to face Richmond.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

UNH could be in at 7-4 with a win over Richmond. Not even sure UNH can compete with the Spiders at this point in time, but the game is in Durham and AGS.

Hate to say it, but I read today that Maine can also finish 7-4 (with two FBS losses) and they would be 7-1 in the CAA if they do so! The Black Bears have @Villanova, Towson, Elon and @UNH remaining. If somehow the stars aligned and both UNH and Maine were 6-4, that would be an epic battle for the Musket!

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Hate to say it, but I read today that Maine can also finish 7-4 (with two FBS losses) and they would be 7-1 in the CAA if they do so! The Black Bears have @Villanova, Towson, Elon and @UNH remaining. If somehow the stars aligned and both UNH and Maine were 6-4, that would be an epic battle for the Musket!

Winner would be in.

[Red & Black]

Our defense and special teams play will keep us within striking distance of anyone.

Rep for you. Solid work there. xlolx

[Redbird Recon]

Bracket from Nobowls.com

http://nobowls.com/images/week08.png
The NCAA will try to feed ISUred WIU or UNI with the chance of saving money on a plane.

EDIT: And SDSU to NDSU...

[MTfan4life]

I think it'd be a stretch to think the Big Sky will get 4 teams and these projections have 5??? Montana State needs to win out just to get to 7 "D1" wins and play both SUU and UM. (with one of those "D1" wins against JUCO-level East Tennessee State) Montana needs to win 3 of 4 and play EWU, PSU, and MSU. Southern Utah still has Cal Poly, PSU, NAU, and MSU, and they need to win 3 of those. Portland State needs 2 out of 4 wins and has EWU, SUU, and UM. I'd actually be more surprised if there were 4 teams in than if there were 2 Sky teams in the playoffs.

[FargoBison]

I think it'd be a stretch to think the Big Sky will get 4 teams and these projections have 5??? Montana State needs to win out just to get to 7 "D1" wins and play both SUU and UM. (with one of those "D1" wins against JUCO-level East Tennessee State) Montana needs to win 3 of 4 and play EWU, PSU, and MSU. Southern Utah still has Cal Poly, PSU, NAU, and MSU, and they need to win 3 of those. Portland State needs 2 out of 4 wins and has EWU, SUU, and UM. I'd actually be more surprised if there were 4 teams in than if there were 2 Sky teams in the playoffs.

Somebody has to make the playoffs...Hell I have a four loss UNI team as the first team out. Welcome to the FCS in a world where the playoff is too damn big.

[RootinFerDukes]

Forgot about UNH when looking at standings. As you said, same issue as the others as they have to face Richmond.
I do believe UR will drop at least one CAA game. Their 59 points was more about how bad JMU's defense is than how good their offense is. That's just my opinion though. We only stopped them from scoring on two drives the entire game (and one was a lucky missed FG that was probably knocked down by the wind). The defense was not ready to play.

[tribe_pride]

I do believe UR will drop at least one CAA game. Their 59 points was more about how bad JMU's defense is than how good their offense is. That's just my opinion though. We only stopped them from scoring on two drives the entire game (and one was a lucky missed FG that was probably knocked down by the wind). The defense was not ready to play.

UNH just lost by 17 to Delaware last week with Goldrich back for his 2nd game. While Delaware has been playing better at home (URI loss away 20-0 the week before was weird for the Hens) not sure that UNH will be the team to beat Richmond unless Goldrich big time turns it around. Hoping it's the Tribe that gets to the Spiders the last game of the regular season.

[bostonspider]

Richmond seems to be able to play down to the competition just like any team, so I think that while they should be able to take down Albany this weekend, they could easily lose @UNH or @Nova, and of course especially to W&M (who looks just as good as UR anyways)

[JayJ79]

Somebody has to make the playoffs...Hell I have a four loss UNI team as the first team out. Welcome to the FCS in a world where the playoff is too damn big.

so you're saying that four-loss teams (http://www.gobison.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=47&path=football) shouldn't be in the playoffs?

[Grizalltheway]

so you're saying that four-loss teams (http://www.gobison.com/schedule.aspx?schedule=47&path=football) shouldn't be in the playoffs?

If the field were still 16, it would be a lot harder to get in as one.

[kalm]

If the field were still 16, it would be a lot harder to get in as one.

It would for sure. There are some 7-4 teams that will be far more competitive in the playoffs than a few of the autobids. More football is better than less football.

[nevadagriz]

I'm afraid only two BSC teams make the playoffs PSU and EWU. When was the last year a playoff did not include either UofM or msu???

[veinup]

I'm afraid only two BSC teams make the playoffs PSU and EWU. When was the last year a playoff did not include either UofM or msu???

whenever that was it was a very sad year for everyone

i think Montana can make it. all starts with beating PSU in portland this weekend of course...

[iowastatebison]

I'm afraid only two BSC teams make the playoffs PSU and EWU. When was the last year a playoff did not include either UofM or msu???


From what I found, the last year neither Montana team made the playoffs was 1992.

[Catsfan90]

If UNH loses another game they are 100% out. If they get in with a 7-4 record it will be because they would have beaten Richmond, and because they have a good history. Other then that, I believe we may be witnessing the end if the run. Time to pass the torch.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

Richmond seems to be able to play down to the competition just like any team, so I think that while they should be able to take down Albany this weekend, they could easily lose @UNH or @Nova, and of course especially to W&M (who looks just as good as UR anyways)

We could lose any of the final 3 and the Tribe is the obvious, most formidable test. I think we get UNH this year because we owe them big time.

The Villanova game scares me. We've beaten them the last 2 times we've played them and Talley will want payback. It could also be an emotional "trap game" between UNH and the big Game 125 against the Tribe.

I hate looking past the Great Danes but I just can't see the upset on Homecoming weekend here.

[dudeitsaid]

Just gonna pencil in wins against Weber, NAU and Montana, huh?xcoffeex

The way the Eagles have played this year, I don't feel good penciling in a sure win against anyone! No matter what, I think we will make sure the game is in question till the final minute, one way or the other...

[Gangtackle11]

"The Villanova game scares me. We've beaten them the last 2 times we've played them and Talley will want payback. "

Maybe, but Villanova is banged up with so many injuries. Robertson is done. Leading rusher Javon White broke his leg vs. Towson & is done. The offensive line is all banged up & its 2 best are out for the season. They are starting a freshman at guard this week. A backup RB Matt Gudzak, who ran for 96 yards at Towson is doubtful with a shoulder separation. It goes on & on.

Part of the game, but this once potent offense is running on fumes. Expect 3/4 freshmen to see significant playing time on offense.

Only way they beat any quality team is with an extraordinary defensive effort.

[Mattymc727]

If UNH loses another game they are 100% out. If they get in with a 7-4 record it will be because they would have beaten Richmond, and because they have a good history. Other then that, I believe we may be witnessing the end if the run. Time to pass the torch.

You really think UNH is down for the count for good after this season? or are you just referring to the streak? Wont be this year, but UNH will be back.

[Catsfan90]

You really think UNH is down for the count for good after this season? or are you just referring to the streak? Wont be this year, but UNH will be back.
Just referring to the playoff run. With a 7-4 record they are eligible. Just very doubtful. Young team though, so I know they will bounce back!

[veinup]

From what I found, the last year neither Montana team made the playoffs was 1992.

that was the year the chronic came out ..

dr dre also released an album THIS year ..

hmmmmmmm

[MTfan4life]

Somebody has to make the playoffs...Hell I have a four loss UNI team as the first team out. Welcome to the FCS in a world where the playoff is too damn big.

If UNI finishes with 4 losses, they will be in the playoffs. Guaranteed.

[BisonTru]

Using Massey to predict the rest of the season, the last two spots for the bracket came down to:

8. Western Ill 6-5
27. Montana 6-5
32. *Montana St. 6-4
37. Towson 7-4
38. *Tenn Martin 6-4
40. Central Arkansas 7-4
48. *Southeastern Lou 6-4
72. *Bethune Cookman 8-2
88. ^Alcorn St. 8-2

The rankings are based on Massey.

* -Teams that played a DII team, which is not included in their record. A couple of years ago the NCAA told NDSU when they were having a hard time finding an opponent one DII game could count towards their 7 wins, which is now 6. Does the committee treat a 7-4 team with a DII win on the same level as 7-4 team without DII game?

^- Alcorn St. played a lower than DII team.

IMO, Western Ill and Montana should get the final spots in this scenario. However, they could also go with Towson, Tenn Martin, or Central Arkansas and state their record as the deciding factor. I would be really disappointed if they went with Bethune Cookman or Alcorn St.

This was the rest of the field.



Illionis State


W&M


Port St


Chatt


McNeese


Chuck S


Fordham


Bryant


JSU


Dayton





NDSU


SDSU


UNI


CCU


JMU


Richmond


EWU


The Cit


Southern Utah


Eastern Kent


Western Car


Sam Houston St

[Silenoz]

Haha, a 6-5 at-large. DaytonFlyer must be rolling over in his grave

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

"The Villanova game scares me. We've beaten them the last 2 times we've played them and Talley will want payback. "

Maybe, but Villanova is banged up with so many injuries. Robertson is done. Leading rusher Javon White broke his leg vs. Towson & is done. The offensive line is all banged up & its 2 best are out for the season. They are starting a freshman at guard this week. A backup RB Matt Gudzak, who ran for 96 yards at Towson is doubtful with a shoulder separation. It goes on & on.

Part of the game, but this once potent offense is running on fumes. Expect 3/4 freshmen to see significant playing time on offense.

Only way they beat any quality team is with an extraordinary defensive effort.

Fair enough. We'll smoke you too.

[melloware13]

How I have it right now, lots of forced match-ups though:
William & Mary @ Eastern Kentucky v. 1. Illinois State
Eastern Washington @ Southern Utah v. 8. Portland State
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel v. 4. Chattanooga
Montana State @ Sam Houston State v. 5. North Dakota State
Western Carolina @ Richmond v. 2. Coastal Carolina
Bryant @ Fordham v. 7. James Madison
Western Illinois @ Dayton v. 3. Jacksonville State
South Dakota State @ Montana v. 6. McNeese State

[Twentysix]

Haha, a 6-5 at-large. DaytonFlyer must be rolling over in his grave

Two actually xpeacex