AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 8

[superman7515]

Week 8 is in the books and there was a lot going on in the Top 25. For the fourth time in eight weeks, the number 1 team lost. We have more teams that need to win out for seven D1 wins (12) than teams that have actually reached seven (4). Five teams of the Top 25 lost this week, three of them to lower teams, and nine teams that were just outside the Top 25 fell as well...

Some pretty good football being played in Charleston these days. What do I do with Dayton? University of North Dakota is stuck in reverse, but the Sky might not be the limit for Portland State. Eastern Illinois didn't receive any votes in the poll last week, but is currently 4-0 and tied for first place in the OVC (4-3 overall); not advocating for them, just saying they're a team to keep an eye on, but not listed on the spreadsheet.

Remember that the Sagarin Rankings (and now the SOS) are through last weeks games until you see the asterisks removed and that the results hyperlink to recap articles to help give a little more insight than just a box score.

It's going to be another interesting week filling out those poll ballots, so if you notice any errors, please let me know so I can get them corrected and thank you all for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week and for your help in keeping it accurate and useful!

Congratulations to Coastal Carolina, Fordham, and Dayton on clinching seven D1 wins this season and a reminder...
Green = 7 D1 wins
Yellow = Must win out for 7 D1 wins
Red = Can't reach 7 D1 wins

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1msi8cskYmRbGNXDPqj6-u_oTBHs3kaGDCCCxHoP8RLE/edit?usp=sharing

[CasualFan]

Minor correction, UT Martin is 5-2

[superman7515]

Minor correction, UT Martin is 5-2

Thanks. ESPN still shows them at 4-2, guess they haven't updated the record yet.

[chattownmocs]

There isn't a great team out there right now. Teams will emerge but right now they haven't. Illinois state and jacksonville state are the closest to it right now...in my estimation.

[PantherRob82]

Everyone has had some tough challenges or actually lost.

Illinois State has EIU
Jax State has UTM
James Madison has Richmond
Portland State has UND
NDSU has USD
Chattanooga has Wofford.
McNeese has NWSt
Fordham has Penn
Richmond has Hampton
Coastal Carolina has Monmouth

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Thanks again superman for getting this together!!

[REALBird]

Everyone has had some tough challenges or actually lost.

Illinois State has EIU
Jax State has UTM
James Madison has Richmond
Portland State has UND
NDSU has USD
Chattanooga has Wofford.
McNeese has NWSt
Fordham has Penn
Richmond has Hampton
Coastal Carolina has Monmouth

Early losses or close games in September versus early losses or close losses in late October?
Not a huge fan of penalizing teams for winning, but it's done early in the season without much thought. Teams don't seem to pass the "eye test". Unless there are injuries late season close games are worth examining a bit closer to see what really happened.

Good luck filling out those polls guys!

[Milktruck74]

Based on yesterdays results, I've got my #1......2-25 could just be pulled out of a hat of about 40 teams.

[PantherRob82]

Early losses or close games in September versus early losses or close losses in late October?
Not a huge fan of penalizing teams for winning, but it's done early in the season without much thought. Teams don't seem to pass the "eye test". Unless there are injuries late season close games are worth examining a bit closer to see what really happened.

Good luck filling out those polls guys!

The eye test is the excuse people use for Fordham in the Top 10. Not a fan. I like using my eyes to read the data. :)

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton is now 7-0 and playoff eligible.... First team to win 100 games in the PFL.

[RabidRabbit]

Congrats to Dayton. Now win the Pioneer, as only the AQ will be in play-offs. Is RMU Dayton's only schollie win? SOS is a bear for any PFL team to overcome,

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The eye test is the excuse people use for Fordham in the Top 10. Not a fan. I like using my eyes to read the data. :)

Yeah, people's "eye test's" are as likely to be incorrect as anything else. Sometimes our eyes deceive us for sure.

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton has beaten 3, FCS, scholarship teams. Robert Morris, Duquesne and Kennesaw State.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Has anyone looked back at the preseason polls? It appears so far the most overrated teams (meaning preseason top 25 caliber and no longer anywhere close) are Idaho State, Eastern Illinois, Villanova (although they would be top 10 if JR did not get hurt), Liberty, and New Hampshire. NDSU was also heavily overrated as they looked top 3 and are a borderline top 10 right now.

The most underrated was Portland State by far so far.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Dayton has beaten 3, FCS, scholarship teams. Robert Morris, Duquesne and Kennesaw State.

KSU is a first-year program. They are the equivalent to a D2 team right now. Robert Morris and Duquesne are not very good. Neither are at the top of their league right now. Their point is the SOS is very weak. It's not picking on you guys. It is just how things are. I have Dayton 33rd on my list and if they lose a single game I'll drop them from consideration to get a top 25 vote. Dayton needs to go undefeated and then win one playoff game for me to put them in my top 25.

If they make a run and return a lot of starters then I'll rank them in my preseason top 25. I need to see quality wins.

I'll give you credit that you are undefeated like a top 25 team in the PFL should be. If Dayton was winning by 30 or more in all of their games then I would have them in my top 25 but they are winning very close with a lot of teams who would be last or next to last in the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC, etc.

[DetroitFlyer]

Gee, I never noticed your PFL bias.... Right in line with how credible you are on all things FCS. But, I'm not picking on you....

[RabidRabbit]

Dayton has beaten 3, FCS, scholarship teams. Robert Morris, Duquesne and Kennesaw State.xbowxxbowx 2 NEC's and a 2nd year team. Tough competition! For a non-schollie team it is. For most of the competitors for at-larges, these are the guaranteed wins. Relative for full schollie FCS, this is like winning three FBS games. Unfortunately, for the purpose of the FBS title selection, it doesn't move the needle for the FBS playoff committee to add the FCS winner to their playoffs.

xtwocentsx

[PantherRob82]

Gee, I never noticed your PFL bias.... Right in line with how credible you are on all things FCS. But, I'm not picking on you....

I've had Dayton in my poll for a few weeks. Probably won't move much until the post playoff poll though.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Gee, I never noticed your PFL bias.... Right in line with how credible you are on all things FCS. But, I'm not picking on you....

Look at FBS right now for example. Same goes with G5 to P5 comparison. Memphis, Houston, Toledo, and Temple are the ONLY G5 programs who should be getting any votes for the top 25. The fact WKU, Marshall, Boise State, and App are because people just look at record. Boise State is getting them because of their name.

I vote in a FBS poll and I won't put a Sun Belt or CUSA team in there unless they have a win against a P5 program with a winning record and win real big over their entire league. Those two leagues are very weak and thus I am being more cautious with programs like Marshall, App, WKU, etc despite their records.

Same thing with FCS. If you are from a non scholarship league you better have some strong OOC wins. Who in the FCS top 40 has Dayton beaten right now? Nobody. We won't know Dayton is legit until the playoffs. Dayton is a solid team but they have to beat a top 40 caliber FCS team before we know for sure. I have Dayton 8 spots outside of my top 25. If Dayton gets beat by 20 plus points in the first round of the playoffs then my hesitation is dead on but if they only lose by single digits or win then it will appear Dayton probably is a top 25 talent team.

Would you say Minnesota Mankato should be a top 25 FCS program right now? No right? Because they are 7-0 against D2 competition. There are 5 teams in D2 right now who would be 5-2 or 6-1 with your schedule to date.

With that said, I can appreciate good talent and there are some in the PFL. I love the Stetson S. He can play.

Another example of record. I saw someone ragging on UNI because they were 2-4 and then they beat a top 10 team this weekend. People need to FORGET records. There are people out there who have UNI behind Dayton because one team is 7-0 and the other is 3-4. UNI would beat Dayton by 30 or more. Have to look at the actual talent and who people are playing. A 10-1 team could be 35th in the country while a 5-6 team could be in the top 20 if the SOS for the 5-6 team is much harder than the 10-1 team.

Don't start taking shots. I'm giving an unbiased opinion of someone trying to rank the 25 best teams in FCS based on who I think would beat who and looking at current resume.

If you want to take shots though I hope you know I don't really care when someone gets butt hurt and disagrees with me because I am not giving their team props for beating nobody. I'm giving a professional opinion of someone who gets paid by the NFL to evaluate players and teams. :)

[smallcollegefbfan]

I've had Dayton in my poll for a few weeks. Probably won't move much until the post playoff poll though.

I just put The Citadel in mine at 21 and I have Dartmouth at 23. I still have WIU and YSU because their league is a juggernaut right now. I don't think Dayton could beat Citadel, NCAT, Dartmouth, YSU, WIU, SUU, Indiana state, NAU, Bethune-Cookman, or WCU right now. With that said, how do we rank Dayton? I want to like Dayton and I hope they go to the playoffs and pull some upsets because I like the underdog but I have to rank teams based on talent.

I look at it this way. Where would Dayton finish in the MVFC right now? I would say 8th or 9th. I have them ahead of USD but I think it would be a close game.

[centennial]

I just put The Citadel in mine at 21 and I have Dartmouth at 23. I still have WIU and YSU because their league is a juggernaut right now. I don't think Dayton could beat Citadel, NCAT, Dartmouth, YSU, WIU, SUU, Indiana state, NAU, Bethune-Cookman, or WCU right now. With that said, how do we rank Dayton? I want to like Dayton and I hope they go to the playoffs and pull some upsets because I like the underdog but I have to rank teams based on talent.

I look at it this way. Where would Dayton finish in the MVFC right now? I would say 8th or 9th. I have them ahead of USD but I think it would be a close game.
South Dakota is 150 on Sagarin, Missouri State is 213, Dayton is 207.
Dayton is a 1 point favorite vs MSU at neutral venue
Dayton is 14.5 point underdog vs USD at neutral venue
Someone could easily argue that MSU would be 7-0 with Dayton's schedule.
I am not sure Dayton would beat USD.

[smallcollegefbfan]

South Dakota is 150 on Sagarin, Missouri State is 213, Dayton is 207.
Dayton is a 1 point favorite vs MSU at neutral venue
Dayton is 14.5 point underdog vs USD at neutral venue
Someone could easily argue that MSU would be 7-0 with Dayton's schedule.
I am not sure Dayton would beat USD.

I would agree with that. I think USD would win a close one but yes seeing that shows even more how far off Dayton is. The only reason a PFL team gets in the playoffs is the auto-bid and it makes the league happy. I am a believer that the top 24 teams should get in but the PFL would not like seeing 8-9 teams get in over them. If we picked the very best teams then 8-9 MVFC teams would get in over the PFL champ.

[PantherRob82]

The bottom 4 or so spots in my poll are currently teams from "weaker" conferences with good records. Mostly because no one has shown me they deserve those spots.

[smallcollegefbfan]

The bottom 4 or so spots in my poll are currently teams from "weaker" conferences with good records. Mostly because no one has shown me they deserve those spots.

Always take the 3-4 and 4-3 MVFC, SoCon, Big Sky, etc teams above them unless it is Harvard or Dartmouth. I have seen those two teams and they are legit top 25 caliber squads. Both of them would win the PFL or NEC for sure. Those two teams have legit NFL talent and we all know that NFL talent against non scholarship programs always wins out.

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton"s Kacsor may still have a shot at the NFL if he rehabs his knee. Scouts from at least 4 teams came to Dayton to see him. Former Flyer Kyle Sebetic is currently on the Packers practice squad. No doubt you blew off his NFL talent. Marist currently has 2 players in the NFL. Yep, no NFL talent in the PFL. Please stop posting on the PFL as you are completely clueless.

[taper]

Dayton"s Kacsor may still have a shot at the NFL if he rehabs his knee. Scouts from at least 4 teams came to Dayton to see him. Former Flyer Kyle Sebetic is currently on the Packers practice squad. No doubt you blew off his NFL talent. Marist currently has 2 players in the NFL. Yep, no NFL talent in the PFL. Please stop posting on the PFL as you are completely clueless.

There's plenty of D2 and even some D3 players in the NFL. There's pro caliber talent all over the country at all levels, but an individual does not make a team. I simply will not rank a PFL team unless A)they schedule quality OOC and then win, or B) win a playoff game. Preferably a 2nd round or higher.

[RabidRabbit]

There's plenty of D2 and even some D3 players in the NFL. There's pro caliber talent all over the country at all levels, but an individual does not make a team. I simply will not rank a PFL team unless A)they schedule quality OOC and then win, or B) win a playoff game. Preferably a 2nd round or higher.

Yes a game between a 5th place MVFC and a PFL in first round, or NEC or Patriot vs a PFL is a sight bit different than playing a top 8 seed in the second round.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Dayton"s Kacsor may still have a shot at the NFL if he rehabs his knee. Scouts from at least 4 teams came to Dayton to see him. Former Flyer Kyle Sebetic is currently on the Packers practice squad. No doubt you blew off his NFL talent. Marist currently has 2 players in the NFL. Yep, no NFL talent in the PFL. Please stop posting on the PFL as you are completely clueless.

I gave a FA grade to Sebetic. I was just at Campbell this past week looking at their DE and DT. Those two guys can't be blocked and will get a shot in the NFL. Kacsor will get a shot but he won't make it. He is too slow. Great college player though. Marist has Terrence Fede a 3-4 DE type prospect who I gave a 7th round grade to and the kicker who I did not like much. He won't last long in the NFL. There are some good kickers coming out this year. I loved Fede. Legit player.

PFL always has a few good players. The safety at Stetson may get drafted in 2017 and I do think Campbell will have at least two players get in a camp.

Here is the issue. You just named 3 players in the NFL from the entire league. James Madison has 3 players from one draft class in the NFL. Every conference I named has about 25-30 alumni in the NFL. I'm just saying the PFL does not have near the talent of those other leagues.

There is a HUGE difference in having 2 good players in your league and having 4-6 real good teams. You are attacking one thing and using 2 players as an example when you are making my point. You have 3 former players in the NFL while there are probably 30 FCS teams who have more than 3 players on NFL rosters alone, let alone an entire league.

There is more NFL talent at NDSU right now than in the entire PFL. There is more NFL talent at Montana, Montana State, EWU, NDSU, and about 25 other FCS schools than the entire PFL combined.

And just to show you even more. Do you realize that there are D2 and D3 conference with MORE NFL talent right now than the PFL?

OAC- D3 in Ohio has 4 on NFL rosters.
MIAA- I don't know the exact number but at least more than 5. They are D2.
Lonestar- D2 league with more than 3 on NFL rosters.

I can keep going. The PFL has the 2nd least NFL talent in it of any FCS conference and about 8 conferences from D2 and D3.

FCS (by conference)


Colonial 26, Big Sky 22, Missouri Valley 15, Ivy 11, MEAC 11, Southern 10, Big South 9, SWAC 8, Southland 7, independent 4, Ohio Valley 4, Pioneer 2, Patriot 1

I know the MIAA, Lonestar, OAC, GLIAC, PSAC, and a few others have more than 3 in the NFL as well.

Just so you know, I get paid by the NFL to scout. I know EXACTLY where the NFL talent is and I know what conferences have the most prospects and how to prioritize where to scout. The PFL is near the bottom of the pecking order. You mentioned a kicker and a guy on a practice squad. You have 1 player who is on a 53-man roster that plays offense or defense. That one player is a transfer who was a special case. He was not even your typical PFL player.

Myself and some NFL teams were just talking to the Campbell kids recently about how they need to dominate the PFL play in and play out if they want to play in the NFL because the league is weak. It's not the fault of the PFL and I'm not attacking it. I'm just giving you facts.

You need to learn about the CAA, MVFC, and other leagues before you spout off. lol

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Any Vad Lee updates? I'm trying to figure out what do with JMU...

[Houndawg]

I would agree with that. I think USD would win a close one but yes seeing that shows even more how far off Dayton is. The only reason a PFL team gets in the playoffs is the auto-bid and it makes the league happy. I am a believer that the top 24 teams should get in but the PFL would not like seeing 8-9 teams get in over them. If we picked the very best teams then 8-9 MVFC teams would get in over the PFL champ.

USD won a close one against NDSU. They would be arrested for what they'd do to Dayton.xcoffeex

[smallcollegefbfan]

USD won a close one against NDSU. They would be arrested for what they'd do to Dayton.xcoffeex

That is true. I was trying to be nice. If Dayton is legit it could be close but yes it could be a 40 point game for sure as well. We will find out how legit Dayton is.

[PantherRob82]

That is true. I was trying to be nice. If Dayton is legit it could be close but yes it could be a 40 point game for sure as well. We will find out how legit Dayton is.

That's why I like the PFL. They at least get a chance to prove their worth.

[IBleedYellow]

Hot damn. SCFF just pwned that poster.

[Samalum'10]

Lol no kidding....

[Tribal]

W&M had 7 players in the NFL at the start of the season but I believe a couple were cut. One of the survivors, a 15 year vet, is a long snapper with the Cards but he's the only special teamer. Another is on the field as I write this...safety for the Eagles.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

[smallcollegefbfan]

That's why I like the PFL. They at least get a chance to prove their worth.

If they would schedule MVFC or other leagues then we would know before it. I don't want to short change them so I feel bad not ranking them until the playoffs but if I go in without Dayton ranked and they make it to the quarterfinals then I have no problem moving them up 18 spots to the top 8 or so.

[smallcollegefbfan]

Hot damn. SCFF just pwned that poster.

Not trying to own anyone. Had several people give me rep points for it. I don't want to push my job into people's faces but when they call me stupid about something that I not only get paid to do but an issue that factually makes them look bad I have to point it out.

He makes it seem like I'm wrong a lot. I usually do pretty good when it comes to projecting players. The PFL is not a league that I focus much energy on. There are always 2-5 players worth peaking at but usually only 1 every other year or every 2 years even make it in the NFL. There are D2 conferences who produce far more NFL talent than the PFL does. Trust me, I know because I have to monitor those conferences every year! It's a daunting task but has to be done. I could skip the PFL all together and miss 1 player every 2 years but can't do that with any other league in FCS.

- - - Updated - - -


W&M had 7 players in the NFL at the start of the season but I believe a couple were cut. One of the survivors, a 15 year vet, is a long snapper with the Cards but he's the only special teamer. Another is on the field as I write this...safety for the Eagles.

Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk

And William & Mary isn't even top 10 in FCS. Just goes to show you how far down the line the PFL is when you argue about NFL talent.

[PantherRob82]

If they would schedule MVFC or other leagues then we would know before it. I don't want to short change them so I feel bad not ranking them until the playoffs but if I go in without Dayton ranked and they make it to the quarterfinals then I have no problem moving them up 18 spots to the top 8 or so.

They each usually play a "big boy" every year or two. Dayton played YSU last year IIRC.

[JMUNJ08]

Any Vad Lee updates? I'm trying to figure out what do with JMU...

No updates that I can find...

[KPSUL]

Any Vad Lee updates? I'm trying to figure out what do with JMU...

I want to know the prognosis on Vad Lee today, but not as a factor on where to rank them. I'm interested to hear other opinions on this issue.

[MR. CHICKEN]

Any Vad Lee updates? I'm trying to figure out what do with JMU...

....RANK 'EM.....BASED ON SATURDAYS GAME.......NOT UPCOMIN' ONE....(LESS YER WEE-GEE BOARD...IS GOIN' OFF.......LIKE AN ESCALADE'S ALARM).....KEEP BRAWK!

[REALBird]

I want to know the prognosis on Vad Lee today, but not as a factor on where to rank them. I'm interested to hear other opinions on this issue.

There was a lot of that last year with Vernon Adams and EWU. They had a tough loss to a NAU team that didn't sniff the playoffs, but they kept ranking EWU near the top because of the "VA Effect". Doesn't matter the status of your QB, OL, DL, whatever. If you lose, you lose. Rankings should be based on you winning or losing, not if you lost a star player, or based on the projected players return.

[clenz]

There was a lot of that last year with Vernon Adams and EWU. They had a tough loss to a NAU team that didn't sniff the playoffs, but they kept ranking EWU near the top because of the "VA Effect". Doesn't matter the status of your QB, OL, DL, whatever. If you lose, you lose. Rankings should be based on you winning or losing, not if you lost a star player, or based on the projected players return.
Ah...but that star player going out can have a MASSIVE impact on a team going forward. If Lee is out for the season it should cause a voter some real pause going forward.

See also: Villanova this year.

[mvemjsunpx]

Ah...but that star player going out can have a MASSIVE impact on a team going forward. If Lee is out for the season it should cause a voter some real pause going forward.

See also: Villanova this year.

Exactly. A top-25 poll is about how good one thinks teams are overall. If a team loses their star player, they aren't likely to be as good overall and future games will almost certainly reflect that.

This is a scenario where human pollsters have a clear advantage over computer/mathematical rankings, so it makes sense to take advantage of it.

[clenz]

Exactly. A top-25 poll is about how good one thinks teams are overall. If a team loses their star player, they aren't likely to be as good overall when thinking about where they're likely to end up.

This is an issue where human pollsters have a clear advantage over computer/mathematical rankings, so it makes sense to take advantage of it.
Agreed.

I dropped Nova hard once I heard JR was likely out for a couple weeks amd even harder when it was announced as a season injury.

The impact an injury can have can be crippling. I rank with past on mind but more how I think teams match up and will moving forward based on that past.

[kalm]

Ah...but that star player going out can have a MASSIVE impact on a team going forward. If Lee is out for the season it should cause a voter some real pause going forward.

See also: Villanova this year.

Pause being the key word here. I've seen several times, especially with good coaching staffs and programs where a great player goes down and the replacement fills in quite well. I gave it a couple weeks with Nova this year because they also have a really good LB and a great coach. In the end, the loss was too much in that case.

[Grizalltheway]

Pause being the key word here. I've seen several times, especially with good coaching staffs and programs where a great player goes down and the replacement fills in quite well. I gave it a couple weeks with Nova this year because they also have a really good LB and a great coach. In the end, the loss was too much in that case.

Montana had their best game offensively with our 3rd string QB.

Of course everyone on eGriz came out of the woodwork saying he should have been the starter all along.xlolx

[tomq04]

When VA went down EWU dropped 5 or 6 spots despite winning their game, and the argument was that as a whole they weren't as good without VA. In the next 4 weeks we won 3 games and climbed back up the ladder as the fear was a little displaced and VA was due to be back.

I think dropping a team because of a lost star player is fine for a couple of weeks to see how the dynamics change.

[veinup]

Of course everyone on eGriz came out of the woodwork saying he should have been the starter all along.xlolx

what a ****house that board is .. my god.

[kalm]

I dropped New England when Bledsoe got hurt.

[clenz]

I dropped New England when Bledsoe got hurt.
Brady does down an the Pats miss the playoffs...

[F'N Hawks]

what a ****house that board is .. my god.

There are probably 50 FCS QB's around the country who could have thrown for 5+ TD's vs. UND on Saturday. All he did was drop back, throw it up and hope. All prayers were answered - nothing magical about anything he did. The first one down the seam to Roberts was a nice throw.

[veinup]

There are probably 50 FCS QB's around the country who could have thrown for 5+ TD's vs. UND on Saturday. All he did was drop back, throw it up and hope. All prayers were answered - nothing magical about anything he did. The first one down the seam to Roberts was a nice throw.

agreed. to be fair he has some pretty decent prayer answerers in jamaal jones and ellis henderson.

and the UND DBs aint so hot.

[F'N Hawks]

agreed. to be fair he has some pretty decent prayer answerers in jamaal jones and ellis henderson.

and the UND DBs aint so hot.

Yes he does and they were too much for UND's DB's. Most WR's are, but they are pretty good.

[Grizalltheway]

There are probably 50 FCS QB's around the country who could have thrown for 5+ TD's vs. UND on Saturday. All he did was drop back, throw it up and hope. All prayers were answered - nothing magical about anything he did. The first one down the seam to Roberts was a nice throw.

He still needed time to make the throws, something our O-line hadn't done a very good of providing for most of this season.

And playing man coverage against our WR corps isn't a very good idea, which for some reason the Dakota schools couldn't figure out.