AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 5 & Playoff Eliminator

[superman7515]

The fat lady has sung on Week 5 in the FCS and that means it's time to get those ballots in!

https://s3.amazonaws.com/rapgenius/1369077040_fat%20lady%20sings.jpg

Remember that the Sagarin Rankings are through last weeks games until you see the asterisks removed and that the results hyperlink to recap articles to help give a little more insight than just a box score. Not an EKU fan, but definitely recommend clicking on the link to read a review of the game vs the Kentucky Wildcats.

If you notice any errors, please let me know so I can get them corrected and thank you all for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week and for your help in keeping it accurate and useful!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hHVbkpal0PbCOOazO7fo7tqm01zeNa4MiBkD_ORN-Lg/edit?usp=sharing



But that's not all!!! As of this week, we have a few teams that can no longer make it to seven D1 wins, so it's conference title or bust (and let's be honest, if you're eliminated from a realistic at-large consideration this early, a conference title probably isn't going to happen)!

Big Sky:
Idaho State
Sacramento State
UC Davis

Colonial:
Rhode Island

MEAC: (Still eligible for at-large bids)
Florida A&M
Howard

NEC:
Central Connecticut State

OVC:
Austin Peay
Murray State

Pioneer:
Davidson
Stetson

SWAC: (Still eligible for at-large bids)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Mississippi Valley State

Southland:
Northwestern State
Stephen F Austin

[superman7515]

Bump for those voting today and the Sagarin ratings have been updated.

[Pard4Life]

Bump. Whomever votes Lehigh this week should have their ballot rights revoked. ORV? GTFO...

[superman7515]

Whomever votes Lehigh this week should have their ballot rights revoked. ORV? GTFO...

I was pretty surprised to see that one myself.

[Nodak78]

Saragin rating lists Portland State ahead of UND after PSU loses at home to UND. are you *"$#%=* me.

[REALBird]

Will be curious to see if ISUr's win over UNI and Iowa's win @ Camp Randall moves the needle regarding voting. Especially with our starting QB as a decoy WR and playing sporadically. Winning ugly.

[PantherRob82]

I was fairly impressed with Illinois State yesterday, but it might have been because you were playing us. xlolx

[centennial]

I was fairly impressed with Illinois State yesterday, but it might have been because you were playing us. xlolx
UNI could have won- Bailey should be gone.

[superman7515]

Saragin rating lists Portland State ahead of UND after PSU loses at home to UND. are you *"$#%=* me.

#5 JMU beats #30 Stony Brook and dropped behind Chattanooga, who didn't play.

[BisonTru]

Will be curious to see if ISUr's win over UNI and Iowa's win @ Camp Randall moves the needle regarding voting. Especially with our starting QB as a decoy WR and playing sporadically. Winning ugly.

My top 5 will be ISUr, JMU, JSU, CCU, and NDSU. The order I place them will take plenty of thought this afternoon.

[smilo]

Yeah, top 5 is pretty obvious at this point and then you have the "other 2" MVFC teams and maybe EWU behind them. Beyond that, I can't even figure it out. I did not have PSU anywhere near top 10 last week yet I kept CP up high.

A lot of teams clearly won't be getting to 7 wins this year. Big struggle that FBS is going through as well to get to 80 bowl eligible teams. I have to wonder if we will have enough 7 game winners. Could be close.

[taper]

Saragin rating lists Portland State ahead of UND after PSU loses at home to UND. are you *"$#%=* me.

Body of work vs slot voting. Not really that complicated.

[Nodak78]

Playing head to head is not that complicated.

[Bison56]

Unfortunately due do personal reasons I was not able to contribute to the poll this season but I can't even imagine the struggle trying to position teams the way this season has gone so far.

[Bison56]

Playing head to head is not that complicated.

So you would move a team that is 1-4 over a 4-1 team because they beat them?

[BEAR]

My Bears earning their way up the poll. McNeese game will be a good measure. Should be 3-0 in conference next week playing HBU. After that...who knows.

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton is 4-0. Should at least be top 40....

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Playing head to head is not that complicated.

That is why it is included in the calculation but it means less and less as the season progresses of course. It wasn't some crushing win btw either so that probably figures into it a bit too. I am not a Sagarin promoter so not defending it but just stating that there are some reasons so far.

[BisonTru]

I have to wonder if we will have enough 7 game winners. Could be close.

I had the same thought. With 24 teams the committee might have to take a hard look at a 6-5 squad.

[Nodak78]

You must be from outer space

[Bison56]

You must be from outer space

Was just asking.

[GoAgs72]

I was not impressed by Montana's win over a mediocre UC Davis team yesterday. I was prepared to see Montana dominate the Aggies but it just didn't happen. If fact, in person, the game was boring and the crowd seemed or respond to that. I will probably drop the Grizzlies a few spots.

[Nodak78]

Was just asking.

Well ask a relevant question. who was 1-4 in your question. My statement was about a team(4-1) beating another team(3-1) on the road. the team that lost (3-1) to A team (4-1) won and was ranked lower. simple head to head comparison.

[Bison56]

Well ask a relevant question. who was 1-4 in your question. My statement was about a team(4-1) beating another team(3-1) on the road. the team that lost (3-1) to A team (4-1) won and was ranked lower. simple head to head comparison.

So they should swap spots in the poll?

[Gangtackle11]

My top 5 will be ISUr, JMU, JSU, CCU, and NDSU. The order I place them will take plenty of thought this afternoon.

Same 5 for me.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I had the same thought. With 24 teams the committee might have to take a hard look at a 6-5 squad.

They don't do it much but they have done it. Just a couple years back with SHSU in fact I believe.

[Nodak78]

I didn't say swap spots. The 3-1 team should be ranked at less one lower than the 4-1 team.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I didn't say swap spots. The 3-1 team should be ranked at less one lower than the 4-1 team.

Apparently not the way they have the calculations set up is the point. It is simply based on strength of teams played and how they've done against those teams which gives a number and give the rank. PSU has faced tougher competition and fared slightly better according to their calculations.

They are close so it doesn't matter really and don't trust the rankings anyway but I can understand the reasoning on how they work things out and am fine with the fact that "by the number" that is how they rank. If it were a person using his judgment and he had both teams next to each other and put PSU over them then I'd have to question the thinking but not on a straight calculation thing.

[GoAgs72]

Same 5 for me.

Ditto

[Nodak78]

The numbers and weighted factors going into the computer are always subject to human error. But it is not a big deal as the season progresses it all works out in the wash.

[PantherRob82]

Ditto

Also me.

[centennial]

The numbers and weighted factors going into the computer are always subject to human error. But it is not a big deal as the season progresses it all works out in the wash.
I am going to stop you here. Sagarin probably has an API setup to get these numbers into his system. There is no intern sitting and feeding these numbers into an excel sheet. Also there is no perfect mathematical model. However, these models are more superior to most humans. Especially since they are iterative. Year after year it outperforms these voter polls. It also outperforms on AGS in the pickem challenges. So yes UND beat PSU, but PSU has a better body of work. Exactly the same situation with Montana, and NDSU.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

The numbers and weighted factors going into the computer are always subject to human error. But it is not a big deal as the season progresses it all works out in the wash.

Of course, on both counts. It has been and will continue to happen.

[Nodak78]

I am going to stop you here. Sagarin probably has an API setup to get these numbers into his system. There is no intern sitting and feeding these numbers into an excel sheet. Also there is no perfect mathematical model. However, these models are more superior to most humans. Especially since they are iterative. Year after year it outperforms these voter polls. It also outperforms on AGS in the pickem challenges. So yes UND beat PSU, but PSU has a better body of work. Exactly the same situation with Montana, and NDSU.
Just for clarification a human built the model. duh

[McNeese72]

My Bears earning their way up the poll. McNeese game will be a good measure. Should be 3-0 in conference next week playing HBU. After that...who knows.

But.....but.... you are like us. You haven't beaten "anybody that was good" yet. ;)

Doc

[KPSUL]

My top 5 will be ISUr, JMU, JSU, CCU, and NDSU. The order I place them will take plenty of thought this afternoon.

Can't disagree with that!

[KPSUL]

Dayton is 4-0. Should at least be top 40....

I think it will take wins over San Diego and Jacksonville to start getting Top 25 votes.

[Libertine]

As of this week, we have a few teams that can no longer make it to seven D1 wins, so it's conference title or bust

As of last year, it's not 7 D1 wins to be eligible for at-large anymore, it's 6.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf (section 2.3.3)

[gsf23nd]

As of last year, it's not 7 D1 wins to be eligible for at-large anymore, it's 6.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf (section 2.3.3)


It also says that less than 6 D1 wins may place a team in jeopardy.

[superman7515]

As of last year, it's not 7 D1 wins to be eligible for at-large anymore, it's 6.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/2015-16_DIFCS_PreChamps_20150924.pdf (section 2.3.3)

It was never a requirement to reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible, but it's happened once in 37 years, so that's the standard by which we have always measured the teams chances.

[Mayville Bison]

My top 5 will be ISUr, JMU, JSU, CCU, and NDSU. The order I place them will take plenty of thought this afternoon.

Will definitely be an interesting poll this week as all 5 teams did what they needed to do.

I would put them NDSU, JMU, JSU, ISUr, CC, but I could change my mind in an hour and definitely wouldn't find fault in a different order.

[Libertine]

It was never a requirement to reach 7 D1 wins to be eligible, but it's happened once in 37 years, so that's the standard by which we have always measured the teams chances.

True, 7 wins wasn't a hard and fast requirement, but 7 wins was officially in the NCAA rule book as being the magic number so to speak. My point is that those official guidelines have changed.

[clenz]

Oh Idalol State.

Where'd the Bungle fans go too?