AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 1

[superman7515]

Good morning (or evening for those on the Left Coast, but it's 1 am here) everyone, glad to be back in the swing of things with another FCS season under way!

As always, if you see any errors, please let me know so that I can get that changed ASAP. It's Week 1, I'm probably working out some kinks as well. Thank you all for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week and for your help in keeping it accurate and useful!

I've linked all of the results to the ESPN box scores when recaps were available. If I saw a box score with no recap, I used an outside source, for example the Chattanooga and Jacksonville State still didn't have any recap or info on ESPN at the time I'm writing this, so I used Chattanoogan.com for that info. Side note, even if you don't care about the info for that game, maybe give that link (or the one for Indiana State) a click just as a thank you for covering some FCS football. You don't actually have to read it, just let them know people care and they can get some page clicks by covering teams at this level. Besides, box scores can be misleading, just ask my buddy Clenz!

Also, if you're one of the folks who had South Carolina State in your ballot or on the edge, you may want to wait a little bit. South Carolina State is one of four FCS teams in action on Sunday, along with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Alabama State, and Tennessee State.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ur-vVUIkgLOL2giPNFFv39d43p42MX1KmAY6OX2mz7o/edit?usp=sharing

NOTE: This is the only week that I will be posting the "How They Fared" sheet on the FCS Discussion Board! As site leadership is trying to migrate the majority of the poll specific traffic to the AGS Poll section of the boards, these will be posted there starting with Week 2. I didn't want to post this there without informing everyone first, but starting next week, these will be posted in the poll section: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forumdisplay.php?15-AGS-Poll

[Catbooster]

Always look forward to this - thanks for all the work

[superman7515]

Oh yes, for those who may be new here and haven't checked out the sheets before, the Sagarin ratings are not updated until you see the three asterisks *** removed from that header. Those are for last week because he won't update them until sometime on Sunday, usually after all the games are played, and this week there is a 7 pm game on Sunday, so it may not be until Monday morning.

That being said, it's the beginning of the season and the teams aren't very well linked anyway, so I would merely suggest you not put nearly as much emphasis on computer ratings in Week 1 as in Week 8 when there is better linking of teams.

[GoAgs72]

This is an amazing document you put out each week. It's tremendous help but I still think the AGS poll will be all over the place this week. Too many unusual results. I may throw out my pre-season poll and start from scratch.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

This is an amazing document you put out each week. It's tremendous help but I still think the AGS poll will be all over the place this week. Too many unusual results. I may throw out my pre-season poll and start from scratch.

You, and everyone else should absolutely do that. Right now, nobody knew anything with their guesses it would appear so I sure in the hell won't stake a reputation on my misguided thoughts.

supey, I am basically only trying to keep the non voters from casting votes and so forth. You certainly have no reason to post this over there as it won't help me with what I'm trying to do so if you want to you should leave it all to look at on the public board. If it has a ballot link or something we might take that off but I don't remember it having that anyway. Just going to look at it now.

[chattownmocs]

So I said Montana shouldn't be 1, but after watxhing some other games I think I'm leaning there.

[jmrepak]

Even after losing to Cal Poly at home yesterday? Don't get me wrong, it's not like they got killed or lost to a bad team (AGS ranked 25), but I would think that loss almost negates their NDSU win and they end up just about right where they were.

I'm not a voter but I didn't realize that the Griz had played again this week until checking out this sheet and seeing the win beside Cal. I skipped right past Montana because I assumed they took the extra bye this week like NDSU. Please do continue posting it here. It's a great piece of work and I check it every week.

[mmiller_34]

I'm at a loss on how to vote this week.

[chattownmocs]

Even after losing to Cal Poly at home yesterday? Don't get me wrong, it's not like they got killed or lost to a bad team (AGS ranked 25), but I would think that loss almost negates their NDSU win and they end up just about right where they were.

I'm not a voter but I didn't realize that the Griz had played again this week until checking out this sheet and seeing the win beside Cal. I skipped right past Montana because I assumed they took the extra bye this week like NDSU. Please do continue posting it here. It's a great piece of work and I check it every week.

Lol. No I missed that as well. Maybe some combination of Coastal, JSU, SDSU, NDSU, and Montana top 5. Cal Poly all the way into the top 10 I guess. Cant overreact, but you do have to take the actual results into account.

[2ram]

fcs fared very poorly vs fbs so far. some of those scores are very lopsided.

[caribbeanhen]

So I said Montana shouldn't be 1, but after watxhing some other games I think I'm leaning there.

did you watch the Montana game? they lost

[dbackjon]

A week like this shows why you should throw out your ballot every week for the first few weeks and not rely on your previous ballot do you decide your top 25

we still have no idea how impressive some of these winds are and how negative some of these losses are

people are going to cite South Dakota State win over Kansas as a great win which it is that the same people will pass completely over Portland State's win over an equally pathetic P5 team

[KPSUL]

Week 1 is FBS games, a bunch of Div 2 games and FCS mismatches, and only a handful of competitive FCS match-ups. I only see a couple of big position changes based on week 1 results. I don't think a 2014 playoff team soundly beating a Pioneer or MEAC team with a losing record in 2014, or any FCS team beating a Div 2 team as justification to move ahead of teams that lost to a FBS team. 2 of the 3 teams that won FBS games are coming off losing seasons. While the accomplishment is notable, I don't think it is justification to move any higher than the 21-25 level. Montana's incredible win a week ago, is at least partially mitigated by yesterday's loss.

[superman7515]

Go home dback, you're drunk.

[superman7515]

2 of the 3 teams that won FBS games are coming off losing seasons.

We're not ranking the Top 25 of 2014, we're ranking the Top 25 of Week 1, 2015; the results of this week are what matter.

[KPSUL]

fcs fared very poorly vs fbs so far. some of those scores are very lopsided.

What else is new?

[wmmii]

Supey, great job! Use this every week to vote as one of my four tools.

[kdinva]

thank you. I have bookmarked the poll URL for ease of finding each sunday.....

[kalm]

Fantastic work as always Supe! Dback, great point about SDSU and PSU.

[KnightoftheRedFlash]

fcs fared very poorly vs fbs so far. some of those scores are very lopsided.

I noticed that a lot of strong FBS programs are starting to schedule the really weak FCS opponents to avoid upsets. Army, obviously, didn't get the memo. But I'm proud that we didn't play a weak SWAC or MEAC or Pioneer school.

[paward]

Great work. You can post it on your butt we will find it. Can not do this without you each week.

[Catatonic]

I'm at a loss on how to vote this week.

Me, too. I was set to name Montana number 1....then Cal Poly happened. How to evaluate losses to P5 or top tier G5 teams? Eastern Washington scored well on Oregon....Sam Houston didn't look bad against Texas Tech....Northern Iowa lost by a wider margin than I imagined to a lower tier p5 team but still a p5.....New Hampshire's lopsided loss to a sub par San Jose State team surprised...Dang....what to do? At least there were a couple of FCS match ups that are a bit easier to judge.

[mvemjsunpx]

A week like this shows why you should throw out your ballot every week for the first few weeks and not rely on your previous ballot do you decide your top 25

Totally disagree. Basing everything on the current week is statistical malpractice.

[mmiller_34]

Me, too. I was set to name Montana number 1....then Cal Poly happened. How to evaluate losses to P5 or top tier G5 teams? Eastern Washington scored well on Oregon....Sam Houston didn't look bad against Texas Tech....Northern Iowa lost by a wider margin than I imagined to a lower tier p5 team but still a p5.....New Hampshire's lopsided loss to a sub par San Jose State team surprised...Dang....what to do? At least there were a couple of FCS match ups that are a bit easier to judge.

I just submitted my poll. Did the best I could.

[Catatonic]

Totally disagree. Basing everything on the current week is statistical malpractice.

That would be so if you started from an accurate baseline. However, in the first week of the season there is no baseline based on anything other than conjecture and reputation left over from the previous season. Just my opinion, but to me statistical malpractice in the first week is the continued use of what may well have been flawed data from the preseason or previous years to determine future votes.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I was in a bit of a quandary for the Most Significant Win and Loss...Montana actually could conceivably be a candidate for both. They beat the number 1 team and defending national champ...and then lost to a decent but not exactly top 10 Cal Poly squad the next game out.

[RootinFerDukes]

Another thing to consider is this: if a team is being compared to another team, say #4 vs #1-3. Ask yourself, can this fourth team beat the top three head to head as of what I've seen from all four so far this season and the total of last season? If the answer is no, #4 doesn't deserve to move up. That's just my opinion.

[dbackjon]

We're not ranking the Top 25 of 2014, we're ranking the Top 25 of Week 1, 2015; the results of this week are what matter.
However most people rank their preseason top 25 based on what they did last year

which is why you have to throw out your preseason valid and re-vote based on what's actually happening in 2015

[dbackjon]

Totally disagree. Basing everything on the current week is statistical malpractice.


But basing it on how they did last year isn't?

The first few weeks there really isn't sufficient data to say how well teams are really doing

[melloware13]

Sagarin won't be updated until late Monday at the earliest, because of OSU@VT.

[superman7515]

However most people rank their preseason top 25 based on what they did last year

which is why you have to throw out your preseason valid and re-vote based on what's actually happening in 2015


I was agreeing with you, I don't think 2014 has much of a bearing on 2015 once games start being played. Especially considering the turnover in athletes and coaches from one season to the next.



Sagarin won't be updated until late Monday at the earliest, because of OSU@VT.

Thanks Mel, I didn't think it would be done in time for most people, but didn't want to leave it off completely lest I forget to add it in next week, haha.

[FormerPokeCenter]

Personally, I like what I saw in the McNeese/LSU game. I don't know that any other FCS team has ever gone into Tiger Stadium and survived an exceptionally long defensive struggle, holding LSU to negative passing yards and managed to escape without a loss ;)

[KPSUL]

We're not ranking the Top 25 of 2014, we're ranking the Top 25 of Week 1, 2015; the results of this week are what matter.

Using that simplistic argument would require ranking all 3 teams that won FBS games ahead of every team that lost. I suppose you could make that argument, but then this week 1 poll wouldn't even remotely look like any early season poll ever produced, Including previous AGS.

[wapiti]

The poll should have some major movements after week 1. With most of the top 10 losing and several non-ranked teams beating a fbs team.
There should be several teams falling by double digits and others making big gains. Week one and two could do that. and this year it should.

[ngineer]

Always look forward to this - thanks for all the work


AGREED!! Kudos.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

Using that simplistic argument would require ranking all 3 teams that won FBS games ahead of every team that lost. I suppose you could make that argument, but then this week 1 poll wouldn't even remotely look like any early season poll ever produced, Including previous AGS.

I don't think looking at all like the preseason is our goal though? I think people should take what they thought and give it a very small weight of say maybe 25% against a weight of 75% for what actually happened.

Not saying we should be completely dynamic but being on the dynamic side in the early going seems much more representative of the world that being on the static side.

If you (we) were wrong in preseason then we need to accept that and move on...problem is we just don't know for sure yet cuz this sort of things happens every year and we get a few new teams that creep in and stay but most just had a great week.

SHSU is a good example of this. They were in nobody's top 25 at the beginning of 2011 but they showed up in ours very quickly due to people not holding on to their preseason thoughts with them. I think they show up in AGS Poll two to three weeks before any of the others but can't remember exactly what the parameters on that.

As it always is, it is just about your philosophy on building your ballot.

[knucklehead]

I already posted my ballot, but I'd like to make 1 small change. Can I? How?

[ursus arctos horribilis]

I already posted my ballot, but I'd like to make 1 small change. Can I? How?

First, go the thread in the poll voters lounge for that sort of thing and second to answer right here since we're already here is to send a pm to agspoll and cc ursus with the simple change and I will take care of that.

[bobcathpdevil56]

Gosh Dangit, so far all I can fill out is my username, email, and what conference my team plays in. This could be a messy week for the poll.

[knucklehead]

First, go the thread in the poll voters lounge for that sort of thing and second to answer right here since we're already here is to send a pm to agspoll and cc ursus with the simple change and I will take care of that.


Thanks. I sent a PM to AGSpoll earlier, but didn't cc Ursus. Will do.

[bobcathpdevil56]

Well, once I got going it actually rolled pretty well. But, picking number 1 was very tough. Good luck to the rest of you pollsters

[KPSUL]

I don't think looking at all like the preseason is our goal though? I think people should take what they thought and give it a very small weight of say maybe 25% against a weight of 75% for what actually happened.

Not saying we should be completely dynamic but being on the dynamic side in the early going seems much more representative of the world that being on the static side.


If you (we) were wrong in preseason then we need to accept that and move on...problem is we just don't know for sure yet cuz this sort of things happens every year and we get a few new teams that creep in and stay but most just had a great week.

SHSU is a good example of this. They were in nobody's top 25 at the beginning of 2011 but they showed up in ours very quickly due to people not holding on to their preseason thoughts with them. I think they show up in AGS Poll two to three weeks before any of the others but can't remember exactly what the parameters on that.

As it always is, it is just about your philosophy on building your ballot.

Very useful perspective. Thanks!

[bjtheflamesfan]

One of two things I speculate will happen this week:

1) a winless team assumes #1
2) an undefeated team that did not impress will assume #1 just because they won

[ursus arctos horribilis]

One of two things I speculate will happen this week:

1) a winless team assumes #1
2) an undefeated team that did not impress will assume #1 just because they won

Well you sort of covered everything there bj so...
1. I bet you are on to something
2. You are totally off base.

[mvemjsunpx]

But basing it on how they did last year isn't?

The first few weeks there really isn't sufficient data to say how well teams are really doing

I was thinking more along the lines of preseason analysis than literally how they did last year. Did a team lose because they were truly overrated, or did they just have a bad game? Did a team pull a big upset because they're really that good, or did their opponent just piss the bed? I guess an example of the latter would be Nicholls State 2 years ago: they upset an FBS team, but—in true Nicholls fashion—they went 1-6 in the Southland.

[Catsfan90]

I'm at a loss on how to vote this week.

My thoughts exactly. This was the hardest thing I think that I have done in a while.

[Drblankstare]

I see very few wrong answers this week. There is a million ways to look at it, just go with your gut and get it wrong like I did.xthumbsupx

[Gangtackle11]

One of two things I speculate will happen this week:

1) a winless team assumes #1
2) an undefeated team that did not impress will assume #1 just because they won

Well, if you voted Montana (1-1) you can circumvent 1 & 2.

[Gangtackle11]

I looked at my preseason poll. I gave teams that were in my poll & beat an FBS a boost. I added the other FBS winners to my top 25. Teams that won FCS games in my preseason poll were rewarded & those who lost to FCS were punished. Top teams that lost to FBS were dropped, but not much unless they didn't show up at all.

I believe it will right size as we get to the crux of the FCS schedule. 1 hit wonders will fade & quality teams will rise. Week 1 will probably look more like " The Revenge of the Nerds" poll than any other this season.

Crazy start for sure.

[RootinFerDukes]

Noob question: Can a fan vote for his declared team in the AGS poll? I'm assuming so but was curious. There are people who haven't listed their favorite team.

[paward]

My pre-season poll has a small consideration but not enough to stick to a spot they did not earn. FBS win helped a team IMHO. I agree with a previous post. Number one was tough pick. All others were easy.

[Catatonic]

My pre-season poll has a small consideration but not enough to stick to a spot they did not earn. FBS win helped a team IMHO. I agree with a previous post. Number one was tough pick. All others were easy.

I didn't find the others any easier than the number one spot. I agree that the preseason poll should be a small consideration and a win over an FBS school should help. But what about losses to FBS schools vs, say, a win over a hapless NAIA or D2 school? I looked at the spread. If the FCS lost but won against the betting line, I didn't penalize that team as much as FCS teams that lost against the spread....except maybe in the case of xxxx, which lost, lost against the spread, but still waltzed up and down the field and amassed a staggering amount of yardage against a P5 opponent.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I didn't change too much. I also didn't make any real snap judgments based on FBS results.....

[Pard4Life]

I try to be constructive at times but...

What moron voted for Lehigh in the preseason top 25?!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I try to be constructive at times but...

What moron voted for Lehigh in the preseason top 25?!

Probably the game guy who bet on Lafayette having a winning season this decade.....

[ngineer]

This aint chemistry or physics where formulas automatically give you an answer. The preseason poll is a major shot in the dark because we just do not know how just how young men are going to respond to the new season, and first week games can be warped views of reality as many teams shake out new systems, personnel, coaches, inexperience. Some teams should be rewarded for tremendous victories for their programs. Maybe they were freaks for the week, maybe luck got in the way, or maybe they are for real. The next few weeks will shake itself out. So let's not get too wound up on this stuff until late September.

[superman7515]

https://41.media.tumblr.com/a5a6591e902d556777d5376feb52a64c/tumblr_n83aisQQuv1rtcs0eo1_500.jpg

[Drblankstare]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=21300&stc=1

[KPSUL]

[QUOTE=Catatonic;2247428]That would be so if you started from an accurate baseline. However, in the first week of the season there is no baseline based on anything other than conjecture and reputation left over from the previous season. Just my opinion, but to me statistical malpractice in the first week is the continued use of what may well have been flawed data from the preseason or previous years to determine future votes.[/VQUOTE]

There is no accuracy problem with previous year data, it is historical fact not "flawed" at all. What is in question is how relevant it is to determining which teams are strongest at a given point in the season. There is no doubt that if we ran a multiple regression with the independent variable being strength of a team during the first few weeks of the season, previous year rank and win/loss percentage would likely be among the dependent variables with the highest level of association. Week by week it would have a decreasing level of significance until at some point it is no longer relevant. Week 1 has a disproportionate number of FCS vs FBS, FCS vs Div 2, and mismatched OOC FCS games. This makes direct comparison more elusive than future weeks. Of course the week one games are going to result in big movements among and in and out of the top 25, but 2014 performance should not be disregarded at this early point in the season unless you're willing to compromise the accuracy of the AGS poll.

[clenz]

I didn't look at my preseason poll at all when I did this one. I compared them after and it's shocking how little I actually changed in many places because no game happens in a vacuum.

There were teams that moved up with losses and teams that moved down with wins. There were teams fall from my top 10 to out of my top 30 (can you guess who?). I almost left teams with FBS wins off my poll because I didn't want to overreact to 1 game, but as I looked at it I have no reason to believe that a team that beat an FBS team last week would beat anyone I had listed lower than 20. I had a couple teams land within 1 or 2 spots of their preseason ranking.

I am down from 40 ranked teams to 36, and that's with a couple teams coming in from outside of consideration.

[dewey]

Boy is this early season voting tough with the combination of teams playing D2 teams, typically bad FCS teams winning against FBS teams both P5 and G5 and highly ranked FCS teams not looking good against FBS teams.

Dewey

[clenz]

Boy is this early season voting tough with the combination of teams playing D2 teams, typically bad FCS teams winning against FBS teams both P5 and G5 and highly ranked FCS teams not looking good against FBS teams.

Dewey
I think it's why my poll submission looks pretty similar to my preseason submission

[dewey]

I think it's why my poll submission looks pretty similar to my preseason submission

So what do you do with teams like Portland State, North Dakota and Northern Iowa?

Dewey

[clenz]

Already covered in multiple other posts I've made.

[grizband]

First time voting in a few seasons, and the first week was as difficult as ever. I found that my poll didn't change much this week, because I don't have a clear idea of the quality of each team. Things will work themselves out in the next couple weeks, and voting should become easier.

[ngineer]

So what do you do with teams like Portland State, North Dakota and Northern Iowa?

Dewey

My sense is give them the respect they have earned. The following weeks will take care of it. No worries.

[Gangtackle11]

My sense is give them the respect they have earned. The following weeks will take care of it. No worries.

I agree. The weeks ahead will separate the contenders from the pretenders. Can't ignore quality 1st week performances because they don't have a history. it's about the 2015 season. IMHO.