Uncle Brent on NDSU to the FBS, and Idaho to the Big Sky

[Lehigh Football Nation]

http://www.inforum.com/sports/3829971-schnepf-ndsu-should-not-join-coastal-carolina-moving-next-level-football


There was more fuel added to that fire on Monday when Coastal Carolina, an NDSU playoff opponent at the FCS level for the last two seasons, announced it was moving to FBS. It joins other FCS powers like Georgia Southern and Appalachian State who made the same move two years ago.So when is NDSU—a program that has produced the last four FCS champions—making the move up? That's a question NDSU athletic director Matt Larsen has fielded more than he would probably care to. The answer is, and should be, never.
"Be careful what you wish for," Musburger said.

Also:


Musburger says Idaho is a perfect example of a program making a wrong FBS decision. It left the FCS and the Big Sky Conference in 1996 to join the WAC. Because the WAC imploded, Idaho is now a member of the Sun Belt Conference—the same league for Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State. The Sun Belt may be FBS in name, but it certainly has an FCS feel to it.
And after posting a 113-45 record at the FCS level from 1982 to 1994, Idaho has since won 69 games and lost 154 at the FBS level.
"Idaho got jealous of Boise State and jumped into the deeper water," Musburger said. "And they've been floundering ever since. My advice to Idaho would be to leave that behind and come back to the Big Sky."

I could get used to hand-grenade-wielding Brent Musberger.

[smilo]

Idaho played in zero championships.
Idaho had a better in state team.

NDSU has a recruiting monopoly on a great state.
NDSU has 4 straight championships.
NDSU's record includes beating FBS power teams badly.

Does NDSU have a stable target conference?
If the MW calls for them and SDSU (or Montana but they won't level the Bobcats plus basketball is beyond too weak), that could work perfectly. The P5 aren't exactly clamoring over Boise or UNLV due to academics. Hawaii has nowhere to go. Wyoming is developing. Fresno has history. Utah St and Colorado St are not in any power's top 10 targets. Even if those eventually left, NDSU/Boise would absolutely bring in so much attention immediately. If UNM were to leave, who cares? The MW is a great mid major that will stick around.

[Silenoz]

If the MW calls for them and SDSU (or Montana but they won't level the Bobcats plus basketball is beyond too weak), that could work perfectly.

Griz basketball is beyond too weak? We're no Villanova, but we'd at least be moderately competitive in the MWC

[clenz]

Griz basketball is beyond too weak? We're no Villanova, but we'd at least be moderately competitive in the MWC
xconfusedx

[Mr. C]

Idaho played in zero championships.
Idaho had a better in state team.

NDSU has a recruiting monopoly on a great state.
NDSU has 4 straight championships.
NDSU's record includes beating FBS power teams badly.

Does NDSU have a stable target conference?
If the MW calls for them and SDSU (or Montana but they won't level the Bobcats plus basketball is beyond too weak), that could work perfectly. The P5 aren't exactly clamoring over Boise or UNLV due to academics.
Since when is hardly anyone in the NCAA's upper-tier concerned with academics.

[DoWe]

"Be careful what you wish for," Musburger said.

"Idaho got jealous of Boise State and jumped into the deeper water," Musburger said. "And they've been floundering ever since. My advice to Idaho would be to leave that behind and come back to the Big Sky."


Those are the only 2 quotes from Musberger that you posted. The rest is Kevin Schnepf, but you knew that.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

"Be careful what you wish for," Musburger said."Idaho got jealous of Boise State and jumped into the deeper water," Musburger said. "And they've been floundering ever since. My advice to Idaho would be to leave that behind and come back to the Big Sky."Those are the only 2 quotes from Musberger that you posted. The rest is Kevin Schnepf, but you knew that.

Yes... the rest is his opinion... but Brent's quotes speak for themselves, I would think.

[BisonBacker]

Idaho played in zero championships.
Idaho had a better in state team.

NDSU has a recruiting monopoly on a great state.
NDSU has 4 straight championships.
NDSU's record includes beating FBS power teams badly.

Does NDSU have a stable target conference?
If the MW calls for them and SDSU (or Montana but they won't level the Bobcats plus basketball is beyond too weak), that could work perfectly. The P5 aren't exactly clamoring over Boise or UNLV due to academics. Hawaii has nowhere to go. Wyoming is developing. Fresno has history. Utah St and Colorado St are not in any power's top 10 targets. Even if those eventually left, NDSU/Boise would absolutely bring in so much attention immediately. If UNM were to leave, who cares? The MW is a great mid major that will stick around.


That would be the ideal and probably one of only two scenarios I see as being an option down the road to NDSU going FBS. This would be of those two the ideal one IMHO. Careful what you ask for goes both ways. Staying down at this level can come back to bite you depending on what happens in the future. I'd rather be setup to be in that tier as opposed to being left behind with a watered down FCS that's bringing up DII's that don't align with NDSU as peer institutions. Bohl left NDSU because he had done everything there was to be done at this level. 3 consecutive championships. If the shakeup occurs and the second tier develops a playoff system for that level and gets away from the Bowl games that would be the icing on the cake.

[DoWe]

The first quote is a cliche. The second, suggesting Idaho needs to leave FBS and return to FCS is hardly an explosive statement. It's more like stating the obvious.

[IBleedYellow]

I just want NDSU to make sure we are setup to be at the second Tier of football when/if the shakeup occurs.

We need to be with our peers like Georgia Southern, App State, Montana, Montana State, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa, etc.

[IBleedYellow]

Offering Full cost of attendance is just that, making sure we are able to jump to whichever height needs to be reached, and prove that we already can jump that high.

[BisonBacker]

I just want NDSU to make sure we are setup to be at the second Tier of football when/if the shakeup occurs.

We need to be with our peers like Georgia Southern, App State, Montana, Montana State, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa, etc.

I agree 100% but we already are not with two of those you have listed. Another concern is even though I'd want to see Northern Iowa be part of that mix have you read the shatstorm thread over on their message board about NDSU offering FCOA to student athletes? My god if they are going that berzerk over that how the hell are they going to be able to afford that step up when the shakeup occurs?

[IBleedYellow]

I agree 100% but we already are not with two of those you have listed. Another concern is even though I'd want to see Northern Iowa be part of that mix have you read the shatstorm thread over on their message board about NDSU offering FCOA to student athletes? My god if they are going that berzerk over that how the hell are they going to be able to afford that step up when the shakeup occurs?
I hope to see Georgia Southern, App State and North Dakota State at the same level again someday.

[smilo]

Griz basketball is beyond too weak? We're no Villanova, but we'd at least be moderately competitive in the MWC

If by compete you mean not finish in dead last then maybe, but NDSU is in a 12-seed conference. Big Sky is a 15-seed conference, and Montana doesn't come out of it often by any definition. Competitive in the Big Sky does not mean competitive in a big multibid conference.

Also - I don't see a split between P5 and g5. All the better!

[The Yo Show]

NDSU wouldnt move as the situation is currently

[Silenoz]

If by compete you mean not finish in dead last then maybe, but NDSU is in a 12-seed conference. Big Sky is a 15-seed conference, and Montana doesn't come out of it often by any definition. Competitive in the Big Sky does not mean competitive in a big multibid conference.

Also - I don't see a split between P5 and g5. All the better!
You don't think we'd see a bump in recruiting in the MWC? And outside of the major players of SDSU, UNM, UNLV and USU, I would put us squarely within the rest of the pack...

Not to mention relative basketball strength has had little to nothing to do with a lot of the movement we've seen in the last few years...

[walliver]

When/if the big break between P5 and G5 comes, it will be messy.

Currently the P5 is paying each G5 school about $1,000,000 each year in "hush money". Cash given so that the G5 doesn't hire lawyers and stir up trouble. With a split, especially if the P5 break with the NCAA, most of the G5 conferences will likely sue to try to get in. Losing the payoff, losing the money games, and having access to only the lesser bowls (and it is questionable how many of the lesser bowls will survive) would be devastating to the majority of G5 programs.

The financial bottom line is that there is never any advantage being in the second highest level of any activity.

AAA baseball teams don't have lucrative TV contracts. The NBA development league doesn't have a TV presence. If consigned to second tier status, broadcast rights to the new subdivision would be almost worthless. As it is, G5 TV contracts pay less every year, and this is with the gimmick of playing at the "highest level".

FCOA is only the beginning. At some point the big spenders will drive the costs up enough that the G5 crowd can no longer keep up. What happens then is not certain.

[Missingnumber7]

"Be careful what you wish for," Musburger said.

"Idaho got jealous of Boise State and jumped into the deeper water," Musburger said. "And they've been floundering ever since. My advice to Idaho would be to leave that behind and come back to the Big Sky."


Those are the only 2 quotes from Musberger that you posted. The rest is Kevin Schnepf, but you knew that.

FWIW Schnepf and his cronies at the Forum were very anti move to D1 also.

[BisonBacker]

FWIW Schnepf and his cronies at the Forum were very anti move to D1 also.

Now there's a shocker being the great minds and forward thinkers that they are xcrazyx

[Missingnumber7]

Now there's a shocker being the great minds and forward thinkers that they are xcrazyx

I'm not saying that the Sun Belt is a great jump, but the quality of FB greatly improved with 2 schools moving last year. I am having a wait and see with Coastals move. I think that this could be a nice move, but what good does it do if you aren't pulling in extra revenue.

Think of the revenue that NDSU would've been without over the last 4 years alone with home playoff games.

I would be very concerned if NDSU jumped at an offer to join an FBS conference that was enourmously out of their footprint. Its not just FB that needs to be thought of in the whole picture of things and travel costs haven't trended downwards.

[BisonBacker]

I'm not saying that the Sun Belt is a great jump, but the quality of FB greatly improved with 2 schools moving last year. I am having a wait and see with Coastals move. I think that this could be a nice move, but what good does it do if you aren't pulling in extra revenue.

Think of the revenue that NDSU would've been without over the last 4 years alone with home playoff games.

I would be very concerned if NDSU jumped at an offer to join an FBS conference that was enourmously out of their footprint. Its not just FB that needs to be thought of in the whole picture of things and travel costs haven't trended downwards.

Valid points about travel costs and yes I realize it's all sports. But do you really believe our travel costs would be that much higher than they currently are? Yes higher they would be but I'm not so sure they'd be as high as some would like to believe. Right now short of SDSU, USD and UNI we are traveling outside of the tri state and I don't think the costs are going to be that much higher if we were to be lets say in the MWC or the MAC.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

xconfusedx

Yeah, no....

Montana, despite a couple of BSC tournament wins recently, has shown very little imo.

NDSU, I think, could be competitive (relatively speaking) in the MWC. They've legitimately built a good mid-major program. They're in the Murray State, Harvard and SFA world imo.....

[Missingnumber7]

Valid points about travel costs and yes I realize it's all sports. But do you really believe our travel costs would be that much higher than they currently are? Yes higher they would be but I'm not so sure they'd be as high as some would like to believe. Right now short of SDSU, USD and UNI we are traveling outside of the tri state and I don't think the costs are going to be that much higher if we were to be lets say in the MWC or the MAC.

Ask UND what travel does to their budget. A move to the MWC even if it is with SDSU or UM or MSU or UND still leaves 1 bus trip if its SDSU or UND. Add that to the additional scholarships and FCOA. It just doesn't add up right now. The MAC isn't as bad but the closest is still Northern Ill and thats not a bus trip for D1. I'm not saying that travel is an argument against anything, I'm just saying that it needs to be a calculated part of the discussion. NDSU/UND/SDSU/UM/MSU aren't in the same boat as the schools in the southeast with the options and closer travel.

[BisonBacker]

Ask UND what travel does to their budget. A move to the MWC even if it is with SDSU or UM or MSU or UND still leaves 1 bus trip if its SDSU or UND. Add that to the additional scholarships and FCOA. It just doesn't add up right now. The MAC isn't as bad but the closest is still Northern Ill and thats not a bus trip for D1. I'm not saying that travel is an argument against anything, I'm just saying that it needs to be a calculated part of the discussion. NDSU/UND/SDSU/UM/MSU aren't in the same boat as the schools in the southeast with the options and closer travel.

Ok how much of a difference in budget do you think it would be to travel for either the MAC or the MWC over what our current budget is? Flying anywhere is expensive so adding miles doesn't double the cost. Our only bus trip right now is SDSU and USD. I am not sure about UNI but don't think that one is bused but maybe it is. Either way in the end it's about being positioned to be with peer schools at the level we want to be. Not being left behind like what happed to NDSU back in the 70's DII days.

[jacksfan29]

I think some of you need to just relax. Do you really think NDSU spent the money to build its program up to the level it is today so you can now go back to the D2 days? Do you think SDSU is putting up a new FB stadium that will seat 20,000 that can be easily be increased to 30k or more so we can stay pat and go back to playing Augie? We will be with peer schools when everything shakes out. Whether those schools are in the Midwest or the West is a bigger question. That being said, neither NDSU or even more remote SDSU are going to get an invite to the MWC unless the conference implodes. The MAC? I think there is a better possibility you see UNI, ISU Red, ISU Blue end up over there.

My personal wish? When the shake up occurs, and it will; that SDSU and NDSU join up with our real peers, the two Montana schools, and (as painful as it is to say) UND and USD and end up in a conference which does not stretch too far east or too far west. Talking with a good friend who was a former UM student athlete who has kept close ties to the athletic department there is at least a segment of UM boosters who feel the same way. Once the P5 make their stand it will all begin to become known. Until then any move to an absolute crap conference like the Sun Belch would be a really bad move.


Ok how much of a difference in budget do you think it would be to travel for either the MAC or the MWC over what our current budget is? Flying anywhere is expensive so adding miles doesn't double the cost. Our only bus trip right now is SDSU and USD. I am not sure about UNI but don't think that one is bused but maybe it is. Either way in the end it's about being positioned to be with peer schools at the level we want to be. Not being left behind like what happed to NDSU back in the 70's DII days.

[DoWe]

FWIW Schnepf and his cronies at the Forum were very anti move to D1 also.

Yes, that's obvious from what I read. My point was LFN was attempting to attribute that drivel he quoted in his original post to Musberger even though he knew it was Schnepf's.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Yes, that's obvious from what I read. My point was LFN was attempting to attribute that drivel he quoted in his original post to Musberger even though he knew it was Schnepf's.

Ever heard of "Blockquote"?

[clenz]

You don't think we'd see a bump in recruiting in the MWC? And outside of the major players of SDSU, UNM, UNLV and USU, I would put us squarely within the rest of the pack...

Not to mention relative basketball strength has had little to nothing to do with a lot of the movement we've seen in the last few years...
Conference RPI finish

14-15: 33 conferences
MWC 11th
Summit 15th
Big Sky 27th

13-14: 32 conferences
MWC 10
Summit 17
Big Sky 28

12-13: 31 conferences
MWC 1
Summit 19
Big Sky 29

11-12: 31 conferences
MWC 5
Summit 16
Big Sky 25


You noticing a trend yet?

The RPI at the top of the conferences starting about #14 or 15 start to get REAL inflated because they'll play a bunch of buy games against high RPI teams, or get them in an exempt tournament and use them to boost their RPI. They will also then completely rack of Ws against their conferences, which are pretty damn poor outside of the top 1 or two teams (who are usually still pretty damn bad [by D1 standards]).

As an example, last year EWU played 5 top 100 games. They did manage to beat Indiana (#61...and they can thank the B1G for that. If they were even in the SEC with their resume their RPI falls to about 120) but lost the other 4 by double digits.

You may want to look at 1 off game results as proof of competitiveness, but the reality is your Montana team likely finishes next to Nevada in the MWC.

Going from the Big Sky to MWC in basketball would be like San Diego going from Pioneer to Big Sky in football. Might be same division but it's a MASSIVE jump.

[BisonFan02]

Conference RPI finish

14-15: 33 conferences
MWC 11th
Summit 15th
Big Sky 27th

13-14: 32 conferences
MWC 10
Summit 17
Big Sky 28

12-13: 31 conferences
MWC 1
Summit 19
Big Sky 29

11-12: 31 conferences
MWC 5
Summit 16
Big Sky 25


You noticing a trend yet?

The RPI at the top of the conferences starting about #14 or 15 start to get REAL inflated because they'll play a bunch of buy games against high RPI teams, or get them in an exempt tournament and use them to boost their RPI. They will also then completely rack of Ws against their conferences, which are pretty damn poor outside of the top 1 or two teams (who are usually still pretty damn bad [by D1 standards]).

As an example, last year EWU played 5 top 100 games. They did manage to beat Indiana (#61...and they can thank the B1G for that. If they were even in the SEC with their resume their RPI falls to about 120) but lost the other 4 by double digits.

You may want to look at 1 off game results as proof of competitiveness, but the reality is your Montana team likely finishes next to Nevada in the MWC.

Going from the Big Sky to MWC in basketball would be like San Diego going from Pioneer to Big Sky in football. Might be same division but it's a MASSIVE jump.

This, but if San Diego were to go from Pioneer to the Big Sky in football...it would also include schollys and an institutional focus change in the sport. Massive jump, but it isn't like you are going to dump a pioneer team "as is" in the Big Sky (or in this case, Montana bball to the MWC etc.). The same would be the case for NDSU to the MWC.....Richman would need a MASSIVE pay increase....even though the SHAC is getting updated, it wouldn't fit the league...and the fan support would need to be there.

[clenz]

This, but if San Diego were to go from Pioneer to the Big Sky in football...it would also include schollys and an institutional focus change in the sport. Massive jump, but it isn't like you are going to dump a pioneer team "as is" in the Big Sky (or in this case, Montana bball to the MWC etc.). The same would be the case for NDSU to the MWC.....Richman would need a MASSIVE pay increase....even though the SHAC is getting updated, it wouldn't fit the league...and the fan support would need to be there.
I realize scholarships being added and all that, but in terms of competitive level that's the type of jump it would be.

Montana would instantly turn 8-11 of their conference W's into L's. I figure they might get to about 6-14 in conference.

Last year, had Montana gone 6-14 in conference play they would have gone from 18-12 to 8-22ish....or nearly identical to Nevada, who finished 306th in RPI.

It's one thing to catch some big name program in a one off game - it's a complete different beat to be playing top 50-100 RPI opponents night in and night out in conference play.

I'm not convinced Montana would finish above 8th in the MVC

[DoWe]

Ever heard of "Blockquote"?

Is that like "Spin Doctor"? Also, despite the solid job he did covering Montana/NDSU, Musberger represents the BCS broadcasting establishment. He is not going to toss grenades unless he is ready to retire. Furthermore, I seriously doubt he spends much time reflecting on FCS and G5 concerns.

[superman7515]

Who cares about Uncle Brent's opinion? I want to hear Uncle Buck's... Where the hell is he at when you need him?!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Who cares about Uncle Brent's opinion? I want to hear Uncle Buck's... Where the hell is he at when you need him?!

He's been in a snit ever since Hofstra got shafted from an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

[BisonBacker]

I think some of you need to just relax. Do you really think NDSU spent the money to build its program up to the level it is today so you can now go back to the D2 days? Do you think SDSU is putting up a new FB stadium that will seat 20,000 that can be easily be increased to 30k or more so we can stay pat and go back to playing Augie? We will be with peer schools when everything shakes out. Whether those schools are in the Midwest or the West is a bigger question. That being said, neither NDSU or even more remote SDSU are going to get an invite to the MWC unless the conference implodes. The MAC? I think there is a better possibility you see UNI, ISU Red, ISU Blue end up over there.

My personal wish? When the shake up occurs, and it will; that SDSU and NDSU join up with our real peers, the two Montana schools, and (as painful as it is to say) UND and USD and end up in a conference which does not stretch too far east or too far west. Talking with a good friend who was a former UM student athlete who has kept close ties to the athletic department there is at least a segment of UM boosters who feel the same way. Once the P5 make their stand it will all begin to become known. Until then any move to an absolute crap conference like the Sun Belch would be a really bad move.

I never said anything about the Sun Belt. I wouldn't be in favor of that either. I like Coastal, Go. Southern and Appy but geographically it makes no sense.

[Laker]

What are the feelings at Idaho now that they are back in the Big Sky for all other sports? How much longer do they want to stay in the Sunbelt for football?

[Missingnumber7]

What are the feelings at Idaho now that they are back in the Big Sky for all other sports? How much longer do they want to stay in the Sunbelt for football?


That is a great question, especially now that the Belt keeps grabbing these southeast schools. I doubt they want to set the president of moving back to FCS.

[BisonBacker]

I realize scholarships being added and all that, but in terms of competitive level that's the type of jump it would be.

Montana would instantly turn 8-11 of their conference W's into L's. I figure they might get to about 6-14 in conference.

Last year, had Montana gone 6-14 in conference play they would have gone from 18-12 to 8-22ish....or nearly identical to Nevada, who finished 306th in RPI.

It's one thing to catch some big name program in a one off game - it's a complete different beat to be playing top 50-100 RPI opponents night in and night out in conference play.

I'm not convinced Montana would finish above 8th in the MVC

Let's get real. Outside of the top two in MVC play you are not playing the cream of the crop in the MVC. There is no way for you to know those W-L numbers if a team was to make a move up. I'm sure they would take a drop in the total wins but outside of UNI and Wichita in the valley there are no teams that stand out head and shoulders above the teams in many of the other conferences.

[Silenoz]

I realize scholarships being added and all that, but in terms of competitive level that's the type of jump it would be.

Montana would instantly turn 8-11 of their conference W's into L's. I figure they might get to about 6-14 in conference.

Last year, had Montana gone 6-14 in conference play they would have gone from 18-12 to 8-22ish....or nearly identical to Nevada, who finished 306th in RPI.

It's one thing to catch some big name program in a one off game - it's a complete different beat to be playing top 50-100 RPI opponents night in and night out in conference play.

I'm not convinced Montana would finish above 8th in the MVC

Presumably you mean the MWC

With our current roster, sure. Why not. Like I said we'd be in the pack behind the elitish programs like UNM. Give us the enhanced recruiting, and $$$ that comes with the MWC, and I like our chances to be a quality addition. I didn't say we were going to tear it up, but yeah, we'd be better than the LAST addition, SJSU.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Hm.

Mike Prater (https://twitter.com/IDS_Prater)
@IDS_Prater (https://twitter.com/IDS_Prater)


Commish Karl Benson on the Vandals' future in the Sun Belt: "This is a performance-based business and performance counts.''

[BisonFan02]

Hm.

Mike Prater (https://twitter.com/IDS_Prater)
@IDS_Prater (https://twitter.com/IDS_Prater)


Commish Karl Benson on the Vandals' future in the Sun Belt: "This is a performance-based business and performance counts.''

Is it? How about Georgia St?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Is it? How about Georgia St?

A NCAA Tournament win and a first round pick in the NBA draft is worth a lot of equity. Not everyone has to be a football school.....

[DoWe]

Better check anything LFN "quotes".

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Better check anything LFN "quotes".

How's "NMSU to the Sun Belt In All Sports" working out for you?

[jacksfan29]

I never said anything about the Sun Belt. I wouldn't be in favor of that either. I like Coastal, Go. Southern and Appy but geographically it makes no sense.

Neither does the MAC. Geographically that's the problem. The best G5 conference geographically is the MWC. And, barring an implosion of the conference (which could happen) NDSU is not going to get an invite to the MWC.

[DoWe]

How's "NMSU to the Sun Belt In All Sports" working out for you?
I was simply wrong. I was never attempting to deceive anyone. Won't be the first or last time I will be wrong, but let me go on record for totally supporting CCU'S decision to join the Sun Belt. No deception, no doctoring of others' comments.

[gotts]

How's "NMSU to the Sun Belt In All Sports" working out for you?

Is LFN a for-profit business or a hobby-type blog? Asking for a friend.

[mvemjsunpx]

Presumably you mean the MWC

With our current roster, sure. Why not. Like I said we'd be in the pack behind the elitish programs like UNM. Give us the enhanced recruiting, and $$$ that comes with the MWC, and I like our chances to be a quality addition. I didn't say we were going to tear it up, but yeah, we'd be better than the LAST addition, SJSU.

I don't think the Griz would plummet to the level clenz is suggesting (men's basketball has more parity & volatility than clenz is implying), but there would, of course, be a drop in wins… and it wouldn't be worth it. The Griz made the NCAA Tournament 6 times in a 12-year span from 2001-13, and I don't think there's any way that would've happened in the Mountain West.

Moving up would be fool's gold for women's basketball, too. The MWC has fallen off a cliff since Utah & BYU left, and the Big Sky has actually ranked higher than the Mountain West in the RPI in each of the past four seasons.

[tigonian02]

I hope to see Georgia Southern, App State and North Dakota State at the same level again someday.

I do as well. The writing is on the wall for Idaho and they know it...even when they make outlandish statements about how the FBS is the right place for them. The only reason the sunbelt keeps them around currently is because they make for nice even football divisions currently. NMSU isn't on much better ground, although there is talk of possibly adding them as a full member in the future...though now it would be more difficult with the addition of CCU. Idaho and NMSU contracts are up for renewal next year, so we'll see what happens. If they both get the boot, then we either stay at 10 for football and have a 10/12 conference or add 2 more full time and go 12/14. Either way, it doesn't look good for Idaho. I don't know what their financial situation looks like, but survival as an independent seems farfetched. Maybe they'll get picked up by the MWC lol.

[tigonian02]

If by compete you mean not finish in dead last then maybe, but NDSU is in a 12-seed conference. Big Sky is a 15-seed conference, and Montana doesn't come out of it often by any definition. Competitive in the Big Sky does not mean competitive in a big multibid conference.

Also - I don't see a split between P5 and g5. All the better!

I don't think the P5 and G5 will split either. P5 need a couple of easy wins each season and teams like Wake Forrest, Vandy, Purdue, etc can't be the beating sticks every year. P5 needs the G5. The question is where does that leave FCS? This question is important regardless if P5 and G5 split or not. I think in either scenario FCS gets solidified as is and without an invite, no one moves up.

[SUUTbird]

If things are going to shake up like I think they are in regards to the P5 & G5 split I think the following is very much likely:

-Both levels of college football have an 8 team playoff with the five conference champions and 3 at-large bids. Each level will have their own separate ranking system to help make this easier as to who gets what seed. Bracket will be set up so no matter what that no two teams from the same conference will play in the championship game.

-Boise and San Diego State get an invite to the expanding PAC 12 leaving the MWC at 10 teams. I could potentially see Colorado State get an invite as well since I dont see how BYU doesn't get a Pac-12 invite so maybe EWU or ISU makes the jump.

-The MWC looking to expand offers Montana, Montana State, Idaho, NMSU, NDSU and SDSU to join the conference to give it 16 teams total, the conference would then look something like this:

Mountain Division:
-Air Force
-"Colorado State" (*If not invited to the PAC 12*)
-Idaho
-"Idaho State or EWU" (*If Colorado State Leaves*)
-Montana
-Montana State
-NDSU
-SDSU
-Wyoming

West Division:
-Fresno State
-Hawaii
-Nevada
-New Mexico
-New Mexico State
-San Jose State
-Utah State
-UNLV

A solid conference that would dominate the west on the G5 level. However there is another option that has been mentioned recently by Doug Fullerton. When talking about the split he mentioned that the Big Sky could be split into 2 levels that play in the G5 conference and those that would play in the level below.

I'm actually kind of curious, if the split happens and the Big Sky Conference adds New Mexico State and offers North Dakota State, South Dakota State and South Dakota full membership invite to the conference do you think they would accept? Would be a pretty awesome looking conference IMO