History of FBS vs FCS Matchups

[The Yo Show]

Alright, so I know that there is football geography and infomation on the overall win rate of D1A over D1AA, but is there data on FBS vs FCS win rate for only games played between a preseason ranked FCS team and an FBS team? Logic would suggest the win rate would be higher here, but would like to know if anyone has the data to back it up?

Or does anyone have any thoughts to add on this hypothesis?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Not a bad hypothesis.

The biggest name upsets (EWU over Oregon State, Jax State over Ole Miss, App St. over Michigan, JMU over Virginia (?), NDSU over different FBS opponents) all involved FCS Top 25 teams. Going back further is where I'm hazy, like The Citadel dumping Arkansas in the 1980s.

Colgate and Lehigh both beat I-A Buffalo and they were both ranked at the time.

I know unranked Holy Cross beat Army in the 1990s, which is the only non-ranked FCS team beating an FBS team that I can remember for certain. That and Sac State beating Oregon State a few years before EWU did.

[citdog]

The Citadel defeated Arkansas in 1992 and also hudson high in the same season.

[bjtheflamesfan]

TO get a full accounting of that, it would probably take a good bit of research, and finding polls going back far enough might not be possible. You could probably get some idea by going back to the first part of the 21st century

[superman7515]

We're still in the first part of the 21st century.

[Go...gate]

Colgate 24, Temple 17 in 1982.

#1 (in the pre-season Sports Illustrated poll) Colgate 15, Army 13 in 1983's season opener.

Colgate 22, Army 20 in 1987.

Colgate 38, Buffalo 15 in 2003.

[OL FU]

I have no idea what we were ranked but starting in 1982-86 Furman beat South Carolina, Ga Tech, Nc STate, NC STate and tied Ga Tech.

If I had to guess, we were probably ranked in the pre-season in all of those years with the possible exception of 85.

[KPSUL]

From 2004 to 2009, UNH had a 5 game win streak against FBS teams. Rutgers, Northwestern, Marshall, Army and Ball St. You could say we selected wisely, but also UNH played an offensive style and pace that was pretty unique back then. Our FBS opponents had little or no experience defensing. I'm assuming we were a top 25 FCS team each season, it falls within the 11 year stretch of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, I don't think UNH has won one since.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

From 2004 to 2009, UNH had a 5 game win streak against FBS teams. Rutgers, Northwestern, Marshall, Army and Ball St. You could say we selected wisely, but also UNH played an offensive style and pace that was pretty unique back then. Our FBS opponents had little or no experience defensing. I'm assuming we were a top 25 FCS team each season, it falls within the 11 year stretch of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, I don't think UNH has won one since.

The first Santos victory (Rutgers?) was the only one where I think they might not have been ranked. For the rest they definitely were.

[Go...gate]

The first Santos victory (Rutgers?) was the only one where I think they might not have been ranked. For the rest they definitely were.

Lehigh defeated Navy in 1987, if I recall correctly.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Lehigh defeated Navy in 1987, if I recall correctly.

Indeed they did. Lehigh did a great job of ruining the Middies' 100th game contested at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. xlolx It was Lehigh's first win over the Middies for 75 years. I believe Lehigh was not ranked at the time.

[AmsterBison]

I believe the NDSU has made the preseason polls most years. However, NDSU was not ranked in the top 25 in 2010 when they beat Kansas. Heck, they weren't even among the 39 other teams receiving votes (by my count, looking at the 2010 Preseason Coaches Poll.)

[McNeese72]

Cue JohnStonge if you want stats about FCS vs FBS. But I haven't seen him post here in awhile.

Doc

[Sader87]

HC was ranked when we beat Army in '86 and '87....unranked in 2002.....only FBS wins since HC dropped down to 1-AA in 1982

[ElCid]

There is actually a web site dedicated to this. Give me a few minutes to search for it. Pretty comprehensive as I recall.


Edit.

Found it much quicker than I thought I would.


http://www.footballgeography.com/history-of-fbs-i-a-vs-fcs-i-aa/

[AmsterBison]

There is actually a web site dedicated to this. Give me a few minutes to search for it. Pretty comprehensive as I recall.


Edit.

Found it much quicker than I thought I would.


http://www.footballgeography.com/history-of-fbs-i-a-vs-fcs-i-aa/

Not quite up to date though, but a very nice resource. Looks like it doesn't include the 2014 season.

[The Yo Show]

Well that was the one i was referencing in the beginning when i said football geography. I guess I can go through the stuff there and cross reference the wins listed with the teams in the poll and the year of the poll. But i was curious if someone had already compiled that.

[ElCid]

Not quite up to date though, but a very nice resource. Looks like it doesn't include the 2014 season.

I don't think it had the team ranks as well, but that is easily correlated if you have the rankings from each year handy.

It does include 2013 and what was interesting is I can't account for the second Georgia Southern victory they show against FBS. I though they only had one and that was their last game as an FCS against Florida. I figured they got it just in time. Anyone know the other win? I can't figure it out. Maybe a team in transition at some point.

[UNIFanSince1983]

I would assume in 1992, 1994, and 2007 when we beat Iowa State we would have been in the preseason Top 25. I think maybe in 2013 when we beat them we were in the preseason as well. Although I would be curious how many times since the early 90s we weren't ranked in the Top 25 to start the year.

[RootinFerDukes]

I know JMU beat Navy in 1989 and 1990, but that website does not list it. It also lists 5 wins over FBS, but I only count four.
1982 - Virginia
1989, 1990 - Navy
2010 - Virginia Tech

I think we may have beaten East Tennessee State who may have technically still been a I-A school in the early 80s while the SoCon was transitioning down to I-AA.

[NoDak 4 Ever]

NDSU was the last loss for 5 teams on that list, 6 including Iowa State.
McNeese was the last loss for 4 teams.
A few schools have 3 last losses.

[bjtheflamesfan]

I guess I should have said the latter part of the 20th century to be more clear superman

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm pretty sure Villanova was ranked when they beat Temple in 2003. They were definitely ranked in 2009 when they took us out.

[Go...gate]

Princeton has not defeated a I-A/FCS team since dropping to I-A/FCS.

Pennsylvania defeated Navy in 1986 and has not defeated a I-A/FCS team since that time.

[MU22]

I don't think it had the team ranks as well, but that is easily correlated if you have the rankings from each year handy.

It does include 2013 and what was interesting is I can't account for the second Georgia Southern victory they show against FBS. I though they only had one and that was their last game as an FCS against Florida. I figured they got it just in time. Anyone know the other win? I can't figure it out. Maybe a team in transition at some point.

2004 vs. FIU when the Panthers were in a transitional year. No Eagle fans considered that the first FBS win, as FIU was around 70 scholarships that season.

[Big Dawg]

FAMU was coming off of a I-AA National Championship when we beat Miami...not sure what the rankings were at the time

EDIT: Was just reading an article on the game, we might've been the preseason #1...heading into the Miami game, FAMU had won 27 of it's previous 28 games


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSiu9YdC5X0

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Oh, I don't think Fordham was preseason ranked when they beat Temple two years ago.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Oh, I don't think Fordham was preseason ranked when they beat Temple two years ago.

They definitely weren't preseason Top 25. With that said, I'm pretty sure they were ranked when they beat us.

[Sitting Bull]

This would take some research though it seems just from some recall that the Top 25 teams during any year have a decent record against FBS opponents during that particular season.

Our last season in the Top 10 - 2009 - we knocked off UVA 26-14. We lost to Nova in the semis - I think they had a close game, maybe Temple, not sure if they won though. UR, which was also a playoff team that year, beat Duke.

It seems to be a good indicator early in the year - either winning or playing close against the FBS opponent.

We have had a number of close games recently with FBS teams (Maryland, WVU) though our teams those years were mid pack CAA.

Our other recent wins - Navy in 1987 and 1991 - and Temple in 1998 (?) - were not great seasons. We beat Navy in 1987 yet finished 5-6 for the season.

[Tribe4SF]

This would take some research though it seems just from some recall that the Top 25 teams during any year have a decent record against FBS opponents during that particular season.

Our last season in the Top 10 - 2009 - we knocked off UVA 26-14. We lost to Nova in the semis - I think they had a close game, maybe Temple, not sure if they won though. UR, which was also a playoff team that year, beat Duke.

It seems to be a good indicator early in the year - either winning or playing close against the FBS opponent.

We have had a number of close games recently with FBS teams (Maryland, WVU) though our teams those years were mid pack CAA.

Our other recent wins - Navy in 1987 and 1991 - and Temple in 1998 (?) - were not great seasons. We beat Navy in 1987 yet finished 5-6 for the season.

2010 Tribe was top 10 and lost 21-17 to UNC after leading the entire game.

[Mattymc727]

This would take some research though it seems just from some recall that the Top 25 teams during any year have a decent record against FBS opponents during that particular season.

Our last season in the Top 10 - 2009 - we knocked off UVA 26-14. We lost to Nova in the semis - I think they had a close game, maybe Temple, not sure if they won though. UR, which was also a playoff team that year, beat Duke.

It seems to be a good indicator early in the year - either winning or playing close against the FBS opponent.

We have had a number of close games recently with FBS teams (Maryland, WVU) though our teams those years were mid pack CAA.

Our other recent wins - Navy in 1987 and 1991 - and Temple in 1998 (?) - were not great seasons. We beat Navy in 1987 yet finished 5-6 for the season.

Nova did beat Temple that year (2009), UNH beat Ball State, and JMU lost to Maryland in OT. MAN was the CAA good that year...Almost 5 FBS scalps...

[parr90]

I have no idea what we were ranked but starting in 1982-86 Furman beat South Carolina, Ga Tech, Nc STate, NC STate and tied Ga Tech.

If I had to guess, we were probably ranked in the pre-season in all of those years with the possible exception of 85.

Yall beat the piss out of North Carolina back several years ago. A friend of mine son played RB then.....Adam Sanders. I remember NC came out when Furman came out on the field and got in the faces of the Furman players. I think yall beat them by 2 or 3 touchdowns.

[ccd494]

I'm not sure Maine was ranked when they beat Mississippi State in 2004.

Maine entered the game 1-1, losing at Montana by 7 and blowing out Northern Colorado at home. Finished the year 5-6.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

At first I thought this thread would show that most of the FBS upsets were done by preseason Top 25 FCS teams. Looking at it again, though, I see all the exceptions to that rule. These things feel like they're split pretty evenly between preseason Top 25 and not.

Of course what this really shows is how poor a predictor the preseason Top 25 can be.

[centennial]

At first I thought this thread would show that most of the FBS upsets were done by preseason Top 25 FCS teams. Looking at it again, though, I see all the exceptions to that rule. These things feel like they're split pretty evenly between preseason Top 25 and not.

Of course what this really shows is how poor a predictor the preseason Top 25 can be.
Or that beating a poor FBS team is not an indicator of being top 25 in the FCS. This is especially true at the start of the year when depth isn't a big concern. I think Clenz crunched some numbers last year that showed that there was a bias by the refs. FCS teams get unusually high penalised to the point there seems like a confirmed bias.

[OL FU]

Yall beat the piss out of North Carolina back several years ago. A friend of mine son played RB then.....Adam Sanders. I remember NC came out when Furman came out on the field and got in the faces of the Furman players. I think yall beat them by 2 or 3 touchdowns.

28-3 I didn't mention because I didn't think we were ranked pre-season, but we may have been, not sure.

[dbackjon]

Cue JohnStonge if you want stats about FCS vs FBS. But I haven't seen him post here in awhile.

Doc

He posts over at championshipsubdivision.com

[AshevilleApp2]

App (FCS/1-AA) version, beat Wake Forest 7 times in 22 tries with one tie. Not sure how many years ASU was ranked when winning, but probably most of them. I think Wake won the first 8 games in the series.

[ElCid]

I thought it would be easier, but finding the preseason polls from any year prior to about 5 years ago is petty hard. Unless your school's team archives have it I have not found any site that lists it except an odd year here and there. Go back to the 90s and it is almost non existent.

[lucchesicourt]

How about a new FCS team- UC Davis defeating Stanford 20-17 in 2005. Held Stanford to under 200 total offensive yards and did not have a full schollie roster. Stanford's only TDs came on defensive plays. UCD actually dominated Stanford that night. Stanford finished 5-6 that year.

[Bam]

There is actually a web site dedicated to this. Give me a few minutes to search for it. Pretty comprehensive as I recall.


Edit.

Found it much quicker than I thought I would.


http://www.footballgeography.com/history-of-fbs-i-a-vs-fcs-i-aa/

As stated earlier, nice site but not updated. EKU defeated Miami (OH) in 2014!

[Terry2889]

The first Santos victory (Rutgers?) was the only one where I think they might not have been ranked. For the rest they definitely were.

They were ranked. They had just beaten #1 Delaware the week before in the opener and had just entered the top 25.

[clenz]

Or that beating a poor FBS team is not an indicator of being top 25 in the FCS. This is especially true at the start of the year when depth isn't a big concern. I think Clenz crunched some numbers last year that showed that there was a bias by the refs. FCS teams get unusually high penalised to the point there seems like a confirmed bias.
I vaguely remember that. It was after the UNI/Iowa game where the first 14 penalties of the game were called on UNI, including a delay of game on a kick off following a TD (apparently that's a real thing though that's the only one I've seen called in the thousands of games I've watched) and the game finished something like 16-2 penalties and the first Iowa penalty wasn't called until there was less than 4 min left in the game.

I'll see if I still have those numbers, or can dig that post up.


Oh, and Iowa's first TD had two extremely blatant holds to free the edge literally feet in front of the side judges face

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[ngineer]

Lehigh defeated Navy in 1987, if I recall correctly.

Yes, resoundingly!

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Yes, resoundingly!

1AA Lehigh beat 1A Penn 58-0 in 1981. It's a margin of victory record for FCS over FBS that likely will never be broken.....

[centennial]

I vaguely remember that. It was after the UNI/Iowa game where the first 14 penalties of the game were called on UNI, including a delay of game on a kick off following a TD (apparently that's a real thing though that's the only one I've seen called in the thousands of games I've watched) and the game finished something like 16-2 penalties and the first Iowa penalty wasn't called until there was less than 4 min left in the game.

I'll see if I still have those numbers, or can dig that post up.


Oh, and Iowa's first TD had two extremely blatant holds to free the edge literally feet in front of the side judges face

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I've seen the same thing happen in other games as well. FCS teams get a lot more penalties. I wonder if that is the case between G5 VS P5 teams. It is hard to objectively judge this because in games that aren't close, the refs might not be calling much.

[IBleedYellow]

I've seen the same thing happen in other games as well. FCS teams get a lot more penalties. I wonder if that is the case between G5 VS P5 teams. It is hard to objectively judge this because in games that aren't close, the refs might not be calling much.


Just to play devil's advocate here: Iowa State had a pretty ghost targeting call that kicked out one of their top defensemen. However it held up in the replay, so idk, I never saw it as targeting, but I'm a fan, sooooo.

[UAalum72]

I vaguely remember that. It was after the UNI/Iowa game where the first 14 penalties of the game were called on UNI, including a delay of game on a kick off following a TD (apparently that's a real thing though that's the only one I've seen called in the thousands of games I've watched) and the game finished something like 16-2 penalties and the first Iowa penalty wasn't called until there was less than 4 min left in the game.

I'll see if I still have those numbers, or can dig that post up.


Oh, and Iowa's first TD had two extremely blatant holds to free the edge literally feet in front of the side judges face

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You'll have to adjust the numbers to account that all the games are at the FBS stadiums; the home teams usually get a penalty edge even if not FCS vs. FBS

http://www.fromtherumbleseat.com/2014/7/14/5890675/intro-to-football-analytics-home-field-advantage-in-college-football This story says home teams get almost half a penalty less, even when counting FBS-only conference games.

[GoAgs72]

UC Davis beating Stanford as mentioned earlier was perhaps the biggest game in Aggie history. True, Stanford was not a great team but UC Davis was not only not FCS top 25, we were FCS transitional.

[RootinFerDukes]

UC Davis beating Stanford as mentioned earlier was perhaps the biggest game in Aggie history. True, Stanford was not a great team but UC Davis was not only not FCS top 25, we were FCS transitional.

Any win over an fbs, especially a power conference team, is noteworthy. Don't downplay it. It wasn't uc Davis' fault that Stanford sucked.
I hate when people say we beat va tech because tech had a bad game more than we had a good game. Our defense forced the turnovers.