2015 Southern Conference Pre-Season Thread

[bonarae]

Not sure if there is already a related thread about the conference overall this season. Chattanooga is the favorite to win the conference, but we shouldn't forget Samford and Western Carolina. Why not discuss about the outcomes of the following:

1. Conference's performance vs. FBS opponents this season
2. ETSU's effect on the current 8 SoCon teams in 2016 and beyond (how the cellar will change, when will the Bucs become conference contenders, etc.)
3. Likelihood of star players having injuries that may affect the conference title and playoff hopes of SoCon teams
4. COA for other SoCon members - what is the status of that in some schools?

Other SoCon-related topics are welcome to be brought into this topic.

[SU DOG]

I think Samford has a chance, but YES, the MOCs certainly look likely to run the table, provided their QB stays healthy. We have seen how the cellar can change with the emergence of Western Carolina as a contender. Mercer will upset some folks this year, and who knows just how high they will wind up in the standings. Furman will not be injury-riddled again, and much improved. Wofford has their 12th man in Ayers, and The Citadel is always a tough place to play. Hopefully the changes at VMI will improve that program. About the only thing for certain is that overall, the SoCon will be good enough to regain some lost respect in the FCS.

My opinion on the COA issue is that there are no SoCon schools that can afford to offer football. When you consider a possible 85 players(counting partials)and the Title 9 implications, it is not financially feasible for our schools. Samford for sure just could not afford it. I think that most will follow the trend to give it to basketball and possibly volleyball. Samford, as most schools I would think, does have legal and ethical programs to help football players that are truly in need of assistance.

[tenNesseeCat]

3. Likelihood of star players having injuries that may affect the conference title and playoff hopes of SoCon teams


I'm sure Speir has taken some time to develop those that will be behind Mitchell, but if he goes down, it's a much tougher row to hoe for WCU. I would say the same might be true for UTC with Huesman, Mercer with Russ, or Samford with Eubank.

I'm not sure how you would calculate likelihood of an injury to these, or any other players though. I'll just say there is a much higher chance when they are on the field. xdontknowx

[PaladinFan]

I'm sure Speir has taken some time to develop those that will be behind Mitchell, but if he goes down, it's a much tougher row to hoe for WCU. I would say the same might be true for UTC with Huesman, Mercer with Russ, or Samford with Eubank.

I'm not sure how you would calculate likelihood of an injury to these, or any other players though. I'll just say there is a much higher chance when they are on the field. xdontknowx

I think I am authoritative enough to speak on this considering Furman has gone through I think six or seven quarterbacks the last two years.

In FCS football I have found that a quarterback can carry a football team. Good players at that position can elevate a team unlike any other position.

I think Furman is a pretty good example of this phenomena. In games Reese Hannon has played the last two years, Furman is 9-3. The only teams that have beaten Furman when Hannon has taken a snap during that time are North Dakota State, LSU, and Coastal Carolina. In games Hannon has not played, Furman is 2-11. That's the difference in a conference champ and a cellar team.

Ideally, you'd like your starter to play two years, and hand it off to a redshirt who has spent three years in the system, have him play two years, and hand it off. Strangely, this is not the set up for any SoCon team, I think. Pretty much everyone except Furman (not by design, mind you) would hand the ball off to untested backups because the starter has pretty well been entrenched for some time.

As I have said before, though, this is the deepest QB group the SoCon has had in quite some time. Maybe ten years.

[ElCid]

I think the conference is much better than other conferences realize. That plays in our favor. The first week will tell a lot. This includes 3 very competitive games against good FCS teams; 2 Games against FBS teams; 2 games against pretty bad FCS teams; and 1 against Div II.

UTC/JSU will be a grudge match for UTC. They have not done well against JSU as of late. If UTC can come out on top they will get a huge boost for their season. If Furman can break their losing streak against CCU it may also bode well for them, but probably will not happen. If Samford can knock off Central Arkansas it would also do a lot to silence SOCON critics. All three of these games are winnable. Samford and UTC have best shots.

Wofford at Clemson could always be interesting if Clemson naps, but a blowout would not necessarily break Wofford's season. A good showing by VMI against Ball is possible, but a win is not likely. Their QB, Cobb, is dangerous though.

If The Citadel does not destroy Davidson, it could be a long season for the Dogs. But I think they will be putting on a clinic demonstrating how hard it will be to stop their offense. I just hope they found a defense. Mercer should also handle the Peay, even on the road. If not, it might reveal a little let down this season after making noise last year. Western will get off to a good start, but I think they take a step back overall. The second game in Charleston will reveal lot for both Western and the Dogs.

That said, one week does not make a season and it will be another fun year.

The rest of the season's FBS match ups will probably go as predicted except maybe one. Mercer does not have any FBS scheduled this year. If only they were playing Reinhardt.....they are kind of like an FBS.xrolleyesx

- If Chatty plays FSU as well as The Citadel did last year, they will be doing fine. It is the week prior to the FSU-Florida game as well, so....
- Samford at Louisville is going to be tough. That one might get ugly if for no other reason, Louisville needs to make a statement, especially if they lose to Clemson the week prior.
- Furman has a rough two game stretch at Va Tech and UCF. You never know with Furman lately, but Va Tech will not be caught asleep again, like they were to James Madison back in 2010. While I might have given them a better shot at UCF, coming in back to back games I think they might get manhandled. Who scheduled that??
- The Citadel at Ga So could always be a fun game but the Eagles are a little deeper now and have a bit more to prove, in their own minds, so it will be a tough game for the Bulldogs. South Carolina to finish out in November could always be interesting, especially since they have lost quite a few playmakers, but I think that game is out of reach unless we catch the Gamecocks napping. It was a two score affair last time out in 2011 until the Cocks pressed hard to score in the final minute of the game, much to their shame.
- Wofford at Idaho is very interesting. While I think Wofford might fall short again this year overall, this is definitely a winnable game for them. The Vandals gave up 349 yards rushing last year when Ga So stomped them.
- Western Carolina has both Tenn and A&M - ouch. Neither will be pretty, they aren't South Florida.
- VMI has only the opening game against Ball but they do have two great OOC FCS games against Bucknell and Richmond. Kudos to their scheduling.


Predicted finishes:


TEAM

OVERALL


SOCON

NOTES


UTC
9-2
6-1
THEY WIN CONF BUT SOMEONE KNOCKS THEM OFF UNEXPECTEDLY


SAMFORD
8-3
5-2
STRONG SEASON


THE CITADEL
6-5
4-3
SLIDES AGAINST WOFFORD AND CHAS SOUTHERN WILL END


FURMAN
5-6
4-3
FLASHES OF BRILLIANCE BUT DISAPPOINTING AGAIN


WCU
5-6
3-4
LETDOWN SEASON AFTER HIGHER HOPES


WOFFORD
5-6
2-5
TERRIERS WILL BE TARNISHED AGAIN


MERCER
4-7
2-5
FLASH IN THE PAN


VMI
3-8
2-5
INCHING FORWARD

[PaladinFan]

I have no idea what is going to happen, but I have a good feeling about the first three games of the season.

1. Coastal Carolina, who Furman plays close every single time. CCU's last two visits to Paladin Stadium were overtime affairs. Big game for the Paladins.

2. VT is clearly favored, but they have a Monday night game at home against Ohio State before playing Furman on Saturday. So, short week and a major home game against the #1 team in the country before playing Furman.

3. UCF also clearly favored. They play a night game in Palo Alto against Stanford, then home against Furman, and back on the road against South Carolina. I can get a big picture with Furman wedged between two big road games the Kinghts may overlook the Paladins.

In any event, I think that if Furman is going to make any sort of serious run at the post season this year, they need to win one of those three games. Three shots to make a national statement.

[ElCid]

I have no idea what is going to happen, but I have a good feeling about the first three games of the season.

1. Coastal Carolina, who Furman plays close every single time. CCU's last two visits to Paladin Stadium were overtime affairs. Big game for the Paladins.

2. VT is clearly favored, but they have a Monday night game at home against Ohio State before playing Furman on Saturday. So, short week and a major home game against the #1 team in the country before playing Furman.

3. UCF also clearly favored. They play a night game in Palo Alto against Stanford, then home against Furman, and back on the road against South Carolina. I can get a big picture with Furman wedged between two big road games the Kinghts may overlook the Paladins.

In any event, I think that if Furman is going to make any sort of serious run at the post season this year, they need to win one of those three games. Three shots to make a national statement.

I missed their schedule. Good point.

[PaladinFan]

I missed their schedule. Good point.

We'll be some serious underdogs, no question. I doubt heavily that either VT or UCF is going to pay a lot of attention to a 3-8 FCS team sandwiched in amongst their marquee out of conference games.

[superman7515]

When does Mercer get their first conference win? Not a lot of people are high on Wofford this season, can Mercer jump off to a 1-0 start in the conference with the home game, or do Western Carolina or VMI still seem like the most likely candidates for the first win? Seems that a lot of people are unsure of Mercer considering their past schedules, it will be interesting to watch them grow.

[tenNesseeCat]

Western will get off to a good start, but I think they take a step back overall.

Just curious as to what makes it look like we will take a step back? 20+ starters returning from a 2nd place team. Seniors all over the place, that have played a ton, to this point. With some good talent coming in, the signs point otherwise in my eyes. I didn't expect people to overlook us this year, but it's fine with me, if you do!

[tenNesseeCat]

When does Mercer get their first conference win? Not a lot of people are high on Wofford this season, can Mercer jump off to a 1-0 start in the conference with the home game, or do Western Carolina or VMI still seem like the most likely candidates for the first win? Seems that a lot of people are unsure of Mercer considering their past schedules, it will be interesting to watch them grow.

I'm not sure if you are talking about this year, but they beat VMI by 3 last year.

I'd personally say that VMI and The Citadel would be the most likely candidates for another SoCon W on the Mercer schedule. Not saying they couldn't beat us. They've proven they can play with most any team in the conference, but it should be a rowdy crowd on hand in Cullowhee come Oct. 10th. Hopefully Western will be 4-1(2-0) at the end of the day. We are mentioned or ranked in multiple preseason polls. We were picked 2 and 3 in the preseason SoCon polls. 3rd in # of players on the preseason all conference team, with a couple of snubs. Keep on sleepin!!! I xlovexit!!!xpeacex

[LarryBoy]

For Furman, anything between 3-8 and 8-3 will not surprise me. A healthy Furman is exponentially better than last year's team, but the schedule is brutal. A win against Coastal to open the season paves the way playoff contention. A loss, and then Furman will be the best 5-6 team in the nation.

[superman7515]

I'm not sure if you are talking about this year, but they beat VMI by 3 last year.

I'd personally say that VMI and The Citadel would be the most likely candidates for another SoCon W on the Mercer schedule. Not saying they couldn't beat us. They've proven they can play with most any team in the conference, but it should be a rowdy crowd on hand in Cullowhee come Oct. 10th. Hopefully Western will be 4-1(2-0) at the end of the day. We are mentioned or ranked in multiple preseason polls. We were picked 2 and 3 in the preseason SoCon polls. 3rd in # of players on the preseason all conference team, with a couple of snubs. Keep on sleepin!!! I xlovexit!!!xpeacex

Yes, this year. A lot of people on here are saying they'll get two wins, I'm not sleeping on the Catamounts but I see quite a few picking them to take a step back, so assuming that VMI at home is one of those wins, the Bears have to knock someone off. Wofford or Samford at home? WCU or The Citadel on the road? They hung tough in most of their SoCon games last year, only Wofford actually ran them out of the barn, and I thought they looked like a team that could compete in relatively short order, but I'm assuming because of their youth (in terms of the program itself being relatively new) people don't seem to expect much of them this year.

[PaladinFan]

Yes, this year. A lot of people on here are saying they'll get two wins, I'm not sleeping on the Catamounts but I see quite a few picking them to take a step back, so assuming that VMI at home is one of those wins, the Bears have to knock someone off. Wofford or Samford at home? WCU or The Citadel on the road? They hung tough in most of their SoCon games last year, only Wofford actually ran them out of the barn, and I thought they looked like a team that could compete in relatively short order, but I'm assuming because of their youth (in terms of the program itself being relatively new) people don't seem to expect much of them this year.

My prediction has been that Mercer will be about a .500 team this season. They may surprise me.

I think pretty much every SoCon team returns their core. So Mercer, though they return a ton of players, will face a lot of teams that also return pretty much everyone as well.

I also think the schedule is less favorable. Mercer had 8 home games in 2013 (tied for most in D1 football, I think). 7 last year. 6 this year. They have dropped some of the extremely weak programs they were scheduling (Warner and Ave Maria). Their "easy" games are front loaded on the schedule. They will play seven SoCon games in eight weeks.

With that said, I will say Mercer is doing absolutely what they are supposed to do. They have been very astute with their scheduling. My guess is you will see the week in week out slog have more of an effect this year in a season where there are fewer weak opponents, the bye week comes early, and with a long string of conference games.

[Sandlapper Spike]

For Furman, anything between 3-8 and 8-3 will not surprise me. A healthy Furman is exponentially better than last year's team, but the schedule is brutal. A win against Coastal to open the season paves the way playoff contention. A loss, and then Furman will be the best 5-6 team in the nation.

That three-game stretch is just a very tough way to start the season, especially for a team that probably needs the confidence a win or two would provide.

Furman also has two tricky home games that follow, too. VMI with Al Cobb is going to ruin somebody's season (maybe multiple somebodies), and I think SC State could be really solid. Then the Paladins play Chattanooga. Not going to be easy.

[tenNesseeCat]

Yes, this year. A lot of people on here are saying they'll get two wins, I'm not sleeping on the Catamounts but I see quite a few picking them to take a step back, so assuming that VMI at home is one of those wins, the Bears have to knock someone off. Wofford or Samford at home? WCU or The Citadel on the road? They hung tough in most of their SoCon games last year, only Wofford actually ran them out of the barn, and I thought they looked like a team that could compete in relatively short order, but I'm assuming because of their youth (in terms of the program itself being relatively new) people don't seem to expect much of them this year.

We didn't run them out of the barn, but we were on the verge of taking them behind the woodshed. It was 21-3 just before the half, when Newsome gave up a fumble inside the 10.
It was 35-13 when we gave up a late TD, to let them get as close as they did.
I'm not knocking Mercer, but I think they had us marked as a W last year. After playing Furman and Samford close, and beating VMI. I think they were licking their chops, but WCU lit up their blackout.

They could get more than two wins in the SoCon this year. I see them beating VMI and The Citadel. They have a real shot at Wofford down in Macon, and Furman could be a crazy game with Lamb returning to Paladin Stadium. They could catch Samford at the end of a tough first season for Hatcher. Samford is the team I have my eye on for possibly taking a step back this year. Or maybe just a pause in progress.

[FUBeAR]

We didn't run them out of the barn...

Your post started off accurate...



WESTERN CAROLINA
STATISTICS
MERCER


17
FIRST DOWNS
20


7
9
1
Passing
Rushing
Penalty
8
10
2


47% (7 of 15)
THIRD DOWN EFFICIENCY
43% (6 of 14)


100% (1 of 1)
FOURTH DOWN EFFICIENCY
0% (0 of 1)


406
TOTAL OFFENSE
400


65
6.2
Total Offensive Plays
Average gain per play
65
6.2


233
NET YARDS PASSING
199


14-19
12.3
1-2
0
Completions-Attempts
Net yards per pass play
Sacked: Number-Yards
Had intercepted
13-25
8.0
3-18
1


173
NET YARDS RUSHING
201


46
3.8
Rushing Attempts
Average gain per rush
40
5.0


6-224
PUNTS: Number-Yards
3-112


37.3
Average
37.3


98
TOTAL RETURN YARDS
89


2-3
5-96
1--1
Punt Returns: Number-Yards
Kickoff Returns: Number-Yards
Interception Returns: Number-Yards
0 0
6-89
0 0


6-74
PENALTIES: Number-Yards
8-62


2-1
FUMBLES: Number-Lost
2-2


3-18
SACKS: Number-Yards
1-2


1--1
INTERCEPTIONS: Number-Yards
0 0


31:39
TIME OF POSSESSION
28:21

[PaladinFan]

That three-game stretch is just a very tough way to start the season, especially for a team that probably needs the confidence a win or two would provide.

Furman also has two tricky home games that follow, too. VMI with Al Cobb is going to ruin somebody's season (maybe multiple somebodies), and I think SC State could be really solid. Then the Paladins play Chattanooga. Not going to be easy.

Don't disagree. Furman has one of the tougher schedules in the country, no question.

I think 2013 gave me a little comfort. Furman was 2-4 heading into the turn with embarrassing losses to Elon, Gardner Webb, and a "close as can be" win at home against Presbyterian. They still had App, Georgia Southern, Samford, and Wofford left to play. They ran through that group like crap through a goose.

Have to take the games one at a time. Would be nice to steal one in the first three weeks. Would do wonders for momentum and confidence.

Regardless of what happens, Furman will turn around with VMI and SCSU at home. That should be two winnable games. If the Paladins cannot get up to play at home against two teams that embarrassed them last year, then we just need to bag it in.

[PaladinFan]

We didn't run them out of the barn, but we were on the verge of taking them behind the woodshed. It was 21-3 just before the half, when Newsome gave up a fumble inside the 10.
It was 35-13 when we gave up a late TD, to let them get as close as they did.
I'm not knocking Mercer, but I think they had us marked as a W last year. After playing Furman and Samford close, and beating VMI. I think they were licking their chops, but WCU lit up their blackout.

They could get more than two wins in the SoCon this year. I see them beating VMI and The Citadel. They have a real shot at Wofford down in Macon, and Furman could be a crazy game with Lamb returning to Paladin Stadium. They could catch Samford at the end of a tough first season for Hatcher. Samford is the team I have my eye on for possibly taking a step back this year. Or maybe just a pause in progress.

Mercer is taking their offweek before playing Wofford. Furman used to do that what seemed like every season as we often played GSU/Wofford back to back.

I anticipate with the game in Macon and two weeks to prepare, Mercer will give the Terriers what for. They have already notched their first SoCon win, but a home victory against a marquee program would be a nice feather in the cap.

[SU DOG]

We didn't run them out of the barn, but we were on the verge of taking them behind the woodshed. It was 21-3 just before the half, when Newsome gave up a fumble inside the 10.
It was 35-13 when we gave up a late TD, to let them get as close as they did.
I'm not knocking Mercer, but I think they had us marked as a W last year. After playing Furman and Samford close, and beating VMI. I think they were licking their chops, but WCU lit up their blackout.

They could get more than two wins in the SoCon this year. I see them beating VMI and The Citadel. They have a real shot at Wofford down in Macon, and Furman could be a crazy game with Lamb returning to Paladin Stadium. They could catch Samford at the end of a tough first season for Hatcher. Samford is the team I have my eye on for possibly taking a step back this year. Or maybe just a pause in progress.

I sure hope you are wrong about Samford. We will lose 13 of our 22 starters after this year including our Sr. QB. Samford has recruited really well the last 4-5 years, but that will be a big hit. I look for 2016 to be the rebuilding year. As for Hatcher, team adjustments have been minimum, and he has tweaked more than changed. He is also able to do many things with the players that Coach Sullivan, because of his health, could not do. I am very optimistic from what I have seen from Hatcher so far. I don't know how the wins/losses will play out, but this team, IMO, will be significantly stronger than last year's.

[tenNesseeCat]

hey hey, good one on the stats BeAR! xthumbsupx

I think Mercer proved they could score points last year, minus the Wofford game. Their defense looked good at times against WCU, they just gave up some big plays that the stats don't properly illustrate.

- 2nd and 4 at MERC 15Alex Lakes (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/3117080/alex-lakes) run for no gain, Alex Lakes (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/3117080/alex-lakes) fumbled, forced by Sertonuse Harris, recovered by WCaro Jaleel Lorquet , return for 10 yds for a TD
- 1st and 10 at MERC 33Troy Mitchell (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/533122/troy-mitchell) pass complete to Spearman Robinson (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/533121/spearman-robinson) for 33 yds for a TD, 5 plays, 69 yards, 1:22
- 2nd and 3 at MERC 39Terryon Robinson (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/548861/terryon-robinson) pass complete to Karnorris Benson (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/513260/karnorris-benson) for 39 yds for a TD, 5 plays, 78 yards, 1:54
- 1st and 10 at WCU 44Troy Mitchell (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/533122/troy-mitchell) pass complete to Willie Police (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/548859/willie-police) for 52 yds to the MERCER 4 for a 1ST down MERCER Penalty, personal foul (Lendell Arnold) to the Mercr 2 for a 1ST down (WCU scores 2 plays later), 7 plays, 78 yards, 2:45
- 3rd and 3 at MERC 42Troy Mitchell (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/533122/troy-mitchell) pass complete to Spearman Robinson (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/533121/spearman-robinson) for 42 yds for a TD, 8 plays, 77 yards, 4:11 - They were trying to burn clock at this point.

Our offense was pretty good when we were up tempo and got a rhythm going. We scored quick on a few drives in that game. That's going to leave our defense a little tired and vulnerable.

[tenNesseeCat]

I sure hope you are wrong about Samford.

That step back I'm referring to is the game against WCU on Oct. 24! ;)


We will lose 13 of our 22 starters after this year

Western will lose quite a few too.


As for Hatcher, team adjustments have been minimum, and he has tweaked more than changed. He is also able to do many things with the players that Coach Sullivan, because of his health, could not do. I am very optimistic from what I have seen from Hatcher so far. I don't know how the wins/losses will play out, but this team, IMO, will be significantly stronger than last year's.

Dang!!!xsmhx

[FUBeAR]

hey hey, good one on the stats BeAR! xthumbsupx

I think Mercer proved they could score points last year, minus the Wofford game. Their defense looked good at times against WCU, they just gave up some big plays that the stats don't properly illustrate.

Whatever - the stats do a much better job of 'illustrating' the game I watched than that purple & gold colored yarn you were trying to spin about barns & woodsheds.

Next thing I know, you'll be tellin' me what a purty mouth I have. I can hear the banjo's tuning up in the distance...

[Catamount87]

Two things that aren't in those stats:
Points off Turnovers: WCU 28, Mercer 14
4th Qtr ToP: WCU 11:26, Mercer 3:34

It was a well played game by both teams. Experience and a bit more depth were probably the biggest differences which led to the differences in points of turnovers, total time of possession and specifically 4th qtr ToP.

[PaladinFan]

Whatever - the stats do a much better job of 'illustrating' the game I watched than that purple & gold colored yarn you were trying to spin about barns & woodsheds.

Next thing I know, you'll be tellin' me what a purty mouth I have. I can hear the banjo's tuning up in the distance...

Have not wrapped my head completely around the numbers, but a cursory look suggests Furman put up close to the same offensive numbers against Mercer that WCU did despite a much closer game (on the scoreboard).

[chattownmocs]

I think Mercer will win 3 or 4 socon games this year and be a legit contender in 2016.

[tenNesseeCat]

Whatever - the stats do a much better job of 'illustrating' the game I watched than that purple & gold colored yarn you were trying to spin about barns & woodsheds.

Next thing I know, you'll be tellin' me what a purty mouth I have. I can hear the banjo's tuning up in the distance...

Hahahahahaha!!!! Nothing like some good pickin on the banjo!

Hey BeAR, you're alright man. I don't care what anyone else says about you! Let me know if you need another quart or two. I should have some for your trip to Cullowhee!

[superman7515]

I think Mercer will win 3 or 4 socon games this year and be a legit contender in 2016.

I like you better when you're not trying to be reasonable.

[BlackNGoldR3v0lut10n]

Not sure if there is already a related thread about the conference overall this season. Chattanooga is the favorite to win the conference, but we shouldn't forget Samford and Western Carolina. Why not discuss about the outcomes of the following:

2. ETSU's effect on the current 8 SoCon teams in 2016 and beyond (how the cellar will change, when will the Bucs become conference contenders, etc.)

Other SoCon-related topics are welcome to be brought into this topic.

As far as the upcoming season is concerned, my top three coming out of the gate are UT-Chattanooga, Western Carolina and Samford. Next three would be Wofford, Furman and Mercer (in no particular order), followed by The Citadel and VMI.

I would like to speak on the ETSU effect. As discussed in a previous thread, I really believe six to eight wins this season is doable this season. When they first play everyone in the SoCon in 2016, I fully expect growing pains for them similar to what Mercer went through last season. I would be surprised if ETSU gets more than two conference wins next season (most likely conference wins in 2016 for ETSU being The Citadel and VMI). I think ETSU will get better within the next few years as they continue to gain experience playing against SoCon team with realistic expectations of them being conference contenders by the 2018 season.

[ElCid]

As far as the upcoming season is concerned, my top three coming out of the gate are UT-Chattanooga, Western Carolina and Samford. Next three would be Wofford, Furman and Mercer (in no particular order), followed by The Citadel and VMI.

I would like to speak on the ETSU effect. As discussed in a previous thread, I really believe six to eight wins this season is doable this season. When they first play everyone in the SoCon in 2016, I fully expect growing pains for them similar to what Mercer went through last season. I would be surprised if ETSU gets more than two conference wins next season (most likely conference wins in 2016 for ETSU being The Citadel and VMI). I think ETSU will get better within the next few years as they continue to gain experience playing against SoCon team with realistic expectations of them being conference contenders by the 2018 season.

And why would you think that? Because the preseason poll says so? Not likely. Just like I don't think Mercer will get close in Charleston this year. We may have lost our QB to graduation but we have a host of rushing talent coming back. I just don't see very many victories against anyone the first couple years.

[ElCid]

Just curious as to what makes it look like we will take a step back? 20+ starters returning from a 2nd place team. Seniors all over the place, that have played a ton, to this point. With some good talent coming in, the signs point otherwise in my eyes. I didn't expect people to overlook us this year, but it's fine with me, if you do!

On paper I think you look fine. I don't think anyone will overlook you this year. I am just going with a gut feeling. I always like to look at the psychology of winning and losing as well. You just have not been there in a while. It is easy to get let down when thing don't go your way again. Like I said, I think week 2 in Chucktown will be crucial to us both.

[superman7515]

And why would you think that? Because the preseason poll says so? Not likely. Just like I don't think Mercer will get close in Charleston this year. We may have lost our QB to graduation but we have a host of rushing talent coming back. I just don't see very many victories against anyone the first couple years.

Going by the segment you bolded, you say that he is judging East Tennessee's performance next year based on where The Citadel is ranked in the preseason poll this year, and that it isn't likely East Tennessee will win next year because Mercer won't get close this year thanks to the rushing talent you have coming back this season.

One of us is very confused by your reply.

[ElCid]

I'm not sure if you are talking about this year, but they beat VMI by 3 last year.

I'd personally say that VMI and The Citadel would be the most likely candidates for another SoCon W on the Mercer schedule. Not saying they couldn't beat us. They've proven they can play with most any team in the conference, but it should be a rowdy crowd on hand in Cullowhee come Oct. 10th. Hopefully Western will be 4-1(2-0) at the end of the day. We are mentioned or ranked in multiple preseason polls. We were picked 2 and 3 in the preseason SoCon polls. 3rd in # of players on the preseason all conference team, with a couple of snubs. Keep on sleepin!!! I xlovexit!!!xpeacex

Again, I am not seeing it. We actually did take them to the woodshed, at least in the first half last year, only to come out cold, literally (it was like 15 degrees out) and figuratively in the second half. We controlled the game all first half and had them comfortably at 28-10 at the half and we should have piled on but I think coach tried to get fancy a couple times and we let them back in it and we slept most of the entire second half. And to their credit, they capitalized on it.

They certainly could win this year but I don't think it is likely in Charleston.

[ElCid]

Going by the segment you bolded, you say that he is judging East Tennessee's performance next year based on where The Citadel is ranked in the preseason poll this year, and that it isn't likely East Tennessee will win next year because Mercer won't get close this year thanks to the rushing talent you have coming back this season.

One of us is very confused by your reply.

You mean the mind meld wasn't working? Geez. That's what happens when your wife is calling you for dinner and your brain is working faster than you can type.

I have no idea why he thinks ETSU has a good chance to beat us next year. We have not even played one game this year yet. I assume he simply thinks that since we are down in the "pre-season" polls THIS year, that is the only reason. I know of no other reason. We are only going to be stronger next year if anything. Having a new starting QB this year could be tricky but the lead candidate did get some time last year. That being said, I think it will really depend on how the defense shapes up in our coach's second year. The recruiting appears to have been good. So hopefully we will start to build some depth there. Because while we can march down the field pretty well, unless we get more stops, it comes down to who has the extra/last possession. Winning TOP only goes so far. I also don't know why so many folks think Mercer has a good chance to beat us this year. The final score from last year? The pre-season poll from this year? I think folks will be surprised once the games start flowing. We were 5-7 last year and 12 points away from being 8-4. And the only games that were pretty much out of reach were CCU, FSU and Chatty. I should have chimed in on the dark horse thread, because we could be it for sure considering our poll position. Hope that clarifies it a bit.

[FUBeAR]

We actually did take them to the woodshed...
At least TC's post started accurately. Seems to be a plethora of imaginary barns & woodsheds around these parts. Either LincolnLogs or Lego must've made a lot of money via mail orders to Cullowhee & Charleston last Fall.

It did take Mercer's D a half to solve the 1st T/O Offense they ever faced...and then get a SHUTOUT in the 2nd half. "Fancy?" What? QB reverse pivots before he meshes? RADICAL!! Cold? Really? You're better than that, El Cid.

The Citadel vs. Mercer
28 Final 26
SCORE BY PERIOD
14 1st QTR 10 (+4)
14 2nd QTR 0 (+14)
0 3rd QTR 10 (-10)
0 4th QTR 6 (-6)
28Total26

24FIRST DOWNS21
0Passing6
24Rushing13
0Penalty2

Stats not 'cooperating' with iPhone...fairly similar to the last batch of (Mercer - WCU) stats I posted with the variations normally found vs. a T/O team. Close game - no rural structures involved...again!

As the original poster accurately called it, only Wofford WHIPPED Mercer but good last Fall. The other games were hard-fought, close games that could have gone either way - despite the statistical, interpretative dance folks seem to want to use to put their own 'spin' on the game.

[ElCid]

As the original poster accurately called it, only Wofford WHIPPED Mercer but good last Fall. The other games were hard-fought, close games that could have gone either way - despite the statistical, interpretative dance folks seem to want to use to put their own 'spin' on the game.

Reading comprehension problem? I guess you missed the "at least in the first half last year." We did manhandled you all first half. And to think I even gave you credit for sticking in there and making a game of it. You did adjust well, but we were not the same team in the second half as well. It is a recurring, perennial, problem we have, only playing one half. Sometimes the first, sometimes the second. Don't take offense. I actually kept telling the crowd around me to hold off the celebration at half. 28-10 was not good enough. Well it ended up being, barely.

[FUBeAR]

Reading comprehension problem? I guess you missed the "at least in the first half last year." We did manhandled you all first half. And to think I even gave you credit for sticking in there and making a game of it. You did adjust well, but we were not the same team in the second half as well. It is a recurring, perennial, problem we have, only playing one half. Sometimes the first, sometimes the second. Don't take offense. I actually kept telling the crowd around me to hold off the celebration at half. 28-10 was not good enough. Well it ended up being, barely.

No problem...I read clearly what you wrote about the imaginary woodshed and now about this fantasy you have of manhandling. So, since you persist in insisting that your 'spin' on the game is accurate, here's what your version of a 'manhandling' "all first half" looks like...and we'll break it down by quarters...

1st Quarter
CIT STAT MER
4 1st Downs 6
103 Total Off 128
0 Yds Pass 16
11-103 Att/Yds Rush 16-112....

Mercer converts for a TD, instead of taking a FG on one drive and we're tied at the end of Q1 - obviously a very close game, where both teams are effectively running the ball against the other - no barns, no woodsheds, no manhandling (on the field at least; I can't speak for the visitor's section)

OK - Let's look at Q2, where THE SCORE definitely turned El Cid's way...just as that turned 16-0 Mercer's way in the 2nd half...just NOT QUITE far enough.

2nd Quarter
CIT STAT MER
6 1st Downs 4
115 Total Off 81
14 Yds Pass 34
16-101 Att/Yds Rush 13-47

....Still close. Mercer was not able to run the ball as well in Q2 and gave the Dogs a short-field for a 47 Yard TD on an interesting 4th down attempt.....Still hard to see anything but a close game in the Q2 stats. Definitely an 'edge' starting to appear for The Citadel, but not much more than that. Let's look at "all first half."

1st half Total Stats
CIT STAT MER
10 1st Downs 10
218 Total Off 209
14 Yds Pass 50
27-204 Att/Yds Rush 29-159

I saw the game. I see the stats. I just didn't and don't see your version of it...live or in the numbers.

Even with the score @ 28-10, Mercer had moved the ball well and was getting the 2nd half kickoff. Any Citadel Fans that you had to convince that this game was not over were obviously clueless or drunk or both. That game wasn't 'over' until Delaney stayed at home and made a great play to stop the 2 point conversion to tie late in the 4th Quarter. Mr. Delaney did not have a barn nor a woodshed with him when he made that play. On the other hand, he did stay home and cover (or handle, you could say) the Man that Mercer was trying to sneak by him. So, if THAT's what you meant by MAN-Handling, then you are correct.

[ElCid]

Even with the score @ 28-10.....

Dude, stat about it all you want, anyone who saw the game knew we controlled the game in the first half. Even most of the Mercer fans left at the half. But it was downright cold....

The first TD drive took 5 plays to score (70 yds), the second drive it took 6 plays (71 yds). The 3rd TD drive did take 13 plays (82 yds), you then did hold us once, and our last drive took all of 3 plays to go 53 yds.

You can try and slice it any way you want but allowing a team to score on you 3 times in 14 total plays got schooled.

The second half, not so much.

[FUBeAR]

Dude, stat about it all you want, anyone who saw the game knew we controlled the game in the first half. Even most of the Mercer fans left at the half. But it was downright cold....

The first TD drive took 5 plays to score (70 yds), the second drive it tool 6 plays (71 yds). The 3rd TD drive did take 13 plays (82 yds), you then did hold us once, and our last drive took all of 3 plays to go 53 yds.

You can try and slice it any way you want but allowing a team to score on you 3 times in 14 total plays got schooled.

The second half, not so much.

* I saw the game. I am 'anyone.' I saw 2 offenses that were pounding out over 200 yards on the other team's Defense in the 1st half.
* "Controlled the game" - jeez...OK, if we've gone from from being taken to the woodshed to being manhandled to that...considering the basic principle of that offense is to control the game/clock...then, OK...I suppose that could be a somewhat fair characterization, particularly if you're wearing Carolina/Columbia/Baby Blue.
* Most of the Mercer fans did not leave at the half. That's completely untrue. I'm sure some did as many bring their young kids and it was windy/cold. 50 degrees though - not exactly the Frozen Tundra as I keep reading about...hey, maybe that was an ice-fishing shack you saw, instead of a woodshed :)
* "slice it" - that's exactly what you're doing....carving out individual series, # of plays, halfs, quarters....I'm giving big-picture stuff - Score, basic stats and only to show your claims are not accurate, but then you keep slicing it smaller and smaller....

The GAME was as close as the Final Score and the final stats show that it was. That's it. To try to characterize it any other way, as you have, is just not accurate. - Done - you can have the last word.

[tenNesseeCat]

It is easy to get let down when thing don't go your way again.

Like the PC game last year? We then hammered out 3 double digit wins in a row. Capped by a win over The Citadel.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6mshEZGOtU


I think week 2 in Chucktown will be crucial to us both.

I would agree.

[Catamount87]

For anyone interested in 2014 SoCon stats, http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2014/confldrs.htm

As for the Mercer stat debate, the numbers don't lie, they were right in the mix, ie competitive week in and week out. Anyone overlooking or dismissing them in 2015 will probably be in for a rude awakening.

[tenNesseeCat]

Either LincolnLogs or Lego must've made a lot of money via mail orders to Cullowhee & Charleston last Fall.

Not that I'm aware of, but I believe Cullowhee and Charleston both went down to Macon to pick up W's from the SoCon W factory.(Five Star Stadium)

[superman7515]

Looking forward to the Chattown vs FuBear matchup the week before the game.

[PaladinFan]

For anyone interested in 2014 SoCon stats, http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2014/confldrs.htm

As for the Mercer stat debate, the numbers don't lie, they were right in the mix, ie competitive week in and week out. Anyone overlooking or dismissing them in 2015 will probably be in for a rude awakening.

This is just my opinion, but you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say.

[FUBeAR]

This is just my opinion, but you can make statistics say whatever you want them to say. I think there's a 50% chance you are right.


For anyone interested in 2014 SoCon stats, http://www.soconsports.com/fls/4000/socon/stats/football/2014/confldrs.htm

As for the Mercer stat debate, the numbers don't lie, they were right in the mix, ie competitive week in and week out. Anyone overlooking or dismissing them in 2015 will probably be in for a rude awakening.

Dang - I thought you or someone had done the SoCon only stats for all teams...to get that true apples-to-apples look....oh well. Still good stuff - thanks for posting.

[Catamount87]

FUBeAR, I wish the SoCon did publish conference only stats as well. That way the easy win D-II games and brutal P5/FBS games get factored out for better apples to apples comparisons.

[PaladinFan]

Bear,

Seen this reposted a few times on Mercer stuff that suggests Bobby Lamb has had 8 players drafted into the NFL. Included in that list are Luther Broughton, Chas Fox, John Keith, and Des Kitchings. Of course, none of those four guys played while Bobby Lamb was head coach. Keith didn't even play on the offense.

Does that statistic just include Furman players that were drafted at the same time Lamb was involved with the Furman program in a capacity other than as a player? Isn't it a bit disingenuous to suggest Chas Fox was a player Bobby Lamb had that was drafted into the NFL? Chas Fox and Bobby Lamb are the same age and were college teammates.

[FUBeAR]

Bear,

Does that statistic just include Furman players that were drafted at the same time Lamb was involved with the Furman program in a capacity other than as a player? Isn't it a bit disingenuous to suggest Chas Fox was a player Bobby Lamb had that was drafted into the NFL? Chas Fox and Bobby Lamb are the same age and were college teammates.

1) IDK
2) IDK & Why? Are you contemplating a class action truth-in-recruiting-advertising lawsuit against Mercer as an institution or Coach Lamb as an individual or both? If so, I have a bone or 2 to pick with late 70's truth-in-recruiting actions, as well. Do a little research on "Baker's Dozen" and "The Furman Fillies" and then get back to me...or my attorney. xrolleyesx

Chas Fox arrived on the practice fields of FU, flashing speed to burn fresh from the wind-swept plains of Rapid City, SD, in August of 1981.

Bobby Lamb arrived on those same practice fields, a hot-shot state championship winning QB from the football hotbed of Commerce, GA, in August of 1982.

Regardless of the outcome of your lawsuit, the truth of the matter is that I raised 'em both from mere pups.

[OL FU]

1) IDK
2) IDK & Why? Are you contemplating a class action truth-in-recruiting-advertising lawsuit against Mercer as an institution or Coach Lamb as an individual or both?

Chas Fox arrived on the practice fields of FU, flashing speed to burn fresh from the wind-swept plains of Rapid City, SD, in August of 1981.

Bobby Lamb arrived on those same practice fields, a hot-shot state championship winning QB from the football hotbed of Commerce, GA, in August of 1982.

Regardless of the outcome of your lawsuit, the truth of the matter is that I raised 'em both from mere pups.

I remember you standing next to Chas as he was pulling in that 30 yard pass throwing the key block on his way to ............. oh wait that's illegal receiver downfieldxembarrassedx

[ElCid]

- Done - you can have the last word.

I already didxnodx

[APaladindad]

Whatever - the stats do a much better job of 'illustrating' the game I watched than that purple & gold colored yarn you were trying to spin about barns & woodsheds.

Next thing I know, you'll be tellin' me what a purty mouth I have. I can hear the banjo's tuning up in the distance...

Stop flirting with the WCU guy! If you want a date with him just ask him?:)

[FUBeAR]

I remember you standing next to Chas as he was pulling in that 30 yard pass throwing the key block on his way to ............. oh wait that's illegal receiver downfieldxembarrassedx

OK, you got me dead to rights there OL FU...you caught me spittin' the 99.99% pure bunk, blarney, and hokum that is my content on message boards. Anyone who would believe or take seriously anything FUBeAR spits up should have their heads examined. All intended in good fun. Do be on the lookout for that .01% though; that part may be, in some convoluted way, possibly, partially true...or not.

[FUBeAR]

FUBeAR, I wish the SoCon did publish conference only stats as well. That way the easy win D-II games and brutal P5/FBS games get factored out for better apples to apples comparisons.
Ask & Phil Steele delivers....but FUBeAR had to do a little work. Below are the stats published in Phil Steele's FCS Preview Magazine with Conference-games-only data. These aren't all 'box score' stats - some of them are unique to Phil Steele's analysis. Offensive SoCon-only-games stats on the left and Defensive SoCon-only stats are on the right. To the far right there some 'net' stats. The info is sorted by largest to smallest in the Net Points category.



Team/Stat
Score For
Score Against
Total Off
1st Downs
Rush Att
Rush Yds
Avg YPC
Pass Comp %
Pass Yds
Sacked / Att %

Opp Total Yds
Opp 1st Downs
Opp Rush Att
Opp Rush Yds
Opp Avg YPC
Opp Pass Comp %
Opp Pass Yds
Sacks / Opp Att %

Net Yds
Turn-overs
Net Pts
Net 1st Downs


Chattagnooga
42
15
473
21.9
47
262
5.6
69.2
211
2.4

280
12.9
37
132
3.5
52.3
148
11.6

193
6
26
9


Samford
32
20
427
22.1
41
177
4.4
64.9
249
5.9

314
15.1
45
185
4.1
56.2
129
3.6

112
2
13
7


Wofford
22
19
341
17.3
55
292
5.3
54.1
49
6.6

287
15.6
36
104
2.9
66.3
183
8.3

54
-5
3
2


WCU
27
26
405
19.4
40
192
4.8
67.9
214
2.7

411
22.1
46
243
5.3
47.3
167
4.2

-5
3
1
-3


The Citadel
25
27
420
22.6
64
345
5.4
46.8
75
7.8

450
21.7
39
224
5.7
64.2
226
4.6

-30
3
-2
1


Mercer
21
29
339
17.3
40
165
4.2
50.9
175
9.1

429
21.4
44
222
5
62.1
207
4

-90
1
-8
-4


Furman
20
33
342
16.6
33
117
3.6
55.3
225
7.3

424
23.6
50
230
4.6
63.3
194
4.4

-82
-1
-13
-7


VMI
20
41
340
19.6
29
101
3.5
57.6
239
5.5

493
24.3
50
311
6.2
65.2
182
5

-153
-9
-21
-5



Read'em and smile, cry, complain, call out, etc.

[BearDownMU]

Ask & Phil Steele delivers....but FUBeAR had to do a little work. Below are the stats published in Phil Steele's FCS Preview Magazine with Conference-games-only data. These aren't all 'box score' stats - some of them are unique to Phil Steele's analysis. Offensive SoCon-only-games stats on the left and Defensive SoCon-only stats are on the right. To the far right there some 'net' stats. The info is sorted by largest to smallest in the Net Points category.



Team/Stat
Score For
Score Against
Total Off
1st Downs
Rush Att
Rush Yds
Avg YPC
Pass Comp %
Pass Yds
Sacked / Att %

Opp Total Yds
Opp 1st Downs
Opp Rush Att
Opp Rush Yds
Opp Avg YPC
Opp Pass Comp %
Opp Pass Yds
Sacks / Opp Att %

Net Yds
Turn-overs
Net Pts
Net 1st Downs


Chattagnooga
42
15
473
21.9
47
262
5.6
69.2
211
2.4

280
12.9
37
132
3.5
52.3
148
11.6

193
6
26
9


Samford
32
20
427
22.1
41
177
4.4
64.9
249
5.9

314
15.1
45
185
4.1
56.2
129
3.6

112
2
13
7


Wofford
22
19
341
17.3
55
292
5.3
54.1
49
6.6

287
15.6
36
104
2.9
66.3
183
8.3

54
-5
3
2


WCU
27
26
405
19.4
40
192
4.8
67.9
214
2.7

411
22.1
46
243
5.3
47.3
167
4.2

-5
3
1
-3


The Citadel
25
27
420
22.6
64
345
5.4
46.8
75
7.8

450
21.7
39
224
5.7
64.2
226
4.6

-30
3
-2
1


Mercer
21
29
339
17.3
40
165
4.2
50.9
175
9.1

429
21.4
44
222
5
62.1
207
4

-90
1
-8
-4


Furman
20
33
342
16.6
33
117
3.6
55.3
225
7.3

424
23.6
50
230
4.6
63.3
194
4.4

-82
-1
-13
-7


VMI
20
41
340
19.6
29
101
3.5
57.6
239
5.5

493
24.3
50
311
6.2
65.2
182
5

-153
-9
-21
-5



Read'em and smile, cry, complain, call out, etc.

Good stuff FUBeAR,

My first thought after looking at this is... I had no idea, in retrospect, that Chatt was so dominant statistically speaking. Those numbers are gaudy.

[PaladinFan]

Good stuff FUBeAR,

My first thought after looking at this is... I had no idea, in retrospect, that Chatt was so dominant statistically speaking. Those numbers are gaudy.

I appreciate this work. I think it gives a much more "real" picture of what the conference looked like.

Baseball fans always point to run differential as a good indicator of your win/loss record. You want a net positive between the runs you score and the runs you surrender over the course of the season. That same type figure here (net points) pretty well tells the story. Outside of flipping Mercer and Furman and Wofford and WCU (one spot each), the net points figure almost exactly lines up the final standings.

[tenNesseeCat]

I appreciate this work. I think it gives a much more "real" picture of what the conference looked like.

Baseball fans always point to run differential as a good indicator of your win/loss record. You want a net positive between the runs you score and the runs you surrender over the course of the season. That same type figure here (net points) pretty well tells the story. Outside of flipping Mercer and Furman and Wofford and WCU (one spot each), the net points figure almost exactly lines up the final standings.

It would have looked better for WCU and not quite as gaudy for UTC had western not let chatty beat them far worse than bama did.

[PaladinFan]

It would have looked better for WCU and not quite as gaudy for UTC had western not let chatty beat them far worse than bama did.

45-0 against Samford didn't help Furman's numbers either.

I think every team but UTC pretty well had their butts handed to them at least once in the SoCon schedule.

[Toby]

It would have looked better for WCU and not quite as gaudy for UTC had western not let chatty beat them far worse than bama did.

Mighty neighborly of you to let UTC beat you. May I suggest that you pick a different SoCon team this year?

[PaladinFan]

Some highlights and interviews from Furman's first scrimmage of the preseason https://youtu.be/dR4_f0NV06w?list=PLA861A2FD6BE4C4BC

[tenNesseeCat]

Mighty neighborly of you to let UTC beat you. May I suggest that you pick a different SoCon team this year?

I by no means think WCU let UTC beat us last year. UTC was clearly a better team. I do think that a lack of preparation, focus, effort, and maybe too much ego led to them thumping us in the manner they did.
As far as changing team, ummm....no! xcrazyx

[kdinva]

VMI's offense could be very good....

http://www.roanoke.com/sports/colleges/vmi-s-new-offensive-coordinator-likes-the-pieces-in-place/article_a1493b2e-06c9-5002-bd19-4c69c4cea79f.html

[ElCid]

VMI's offense could be very good....

http://www.roanoke.com/sports/colleges/vmi-s-new-offensive-coordinator-likes-the-pieces-in-place/article_a1493b2e-06c9-5002-bd19-4c69c4cea79f.html

Just like last year with Furman, I think VMI is going to rain on someone's parade, just hope it isn't us. Cobb could spark some good things for you all.

[SU DOG]

I think most all of us in the SoCon would like to see VMI be more competitive. IMO, however, the biggest problem last year had nothing to do with the offense. That defensive secondary had to be one of the worst in all of FCS. Break through the LOS and you were LONG GONE. Just my observation from the game played at Samford. Here's hoping the new HC works wonders.

[kdinva]

I think most all of us in the SoCon would like to see VMI be more competitive. IMO, however, the biggest problem last year had nothing to do with the offense.

True, defense can only get better, and Coach Clark is doing good things with the secondary, and VMI has about 8-9 DB's competiting for playing time.