Potential FCS vs FBS Upsets

[The Yo Show]

Since I didn't see a thread like this for this year, it seemed like the perfect time for this. What are the predictions of the community for the upsets for this year? I wanted to see what everyone else thought what the likely upsets were.

Here is the list of FCS vs FBS games for this year. Please let me know if I have missed any:

Big Sky
Cal Poly - Sept. 12 at Arizona State
Eastern Washington - Sept. 5 at Oregon
Idaho State - Sept. 18 at Boise State; Sept. 26 at UNLV
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming
Northern Arizona - Sept. 19 at Arizona
Portland State - Sept. 5 at Washington State; Oct. 10 at North Texas
Sacramento State - Sept. 12 at Washington
Southern Utah - Sept. 5 at Utah State
UC Davis - Sept. 3 at Nevada; Sept. 19 at Hawaii
Weber State - Sept. 4 at Oregon State


Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy; Nov. 21 at Alabama
Gardner-Webb - Sept. 5 at South Alabama
Liberty - Sept. 12 at West Virginia; Oct. 3 at Georgia State
Monmouth - Sept. 12 at Central Michigan
Presbyterian - Sept. 5 at Miami (Ohio); Sept. 12 at Charlotte


CAA
Albany - Sept. 5 at Buffalo
Delaware - Sept. 26 at North Carolina
Elon - Sept. 3 at Wake Forest
James Madison - Sept. 26 at SMU
Maine - Sept. 5 at Boston College; Sept. 19 at Tulane
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State
Rhode Island - Sept. 5 at Syracuse
Richmond - Sept. 5 at Maryland
Stony Brook - Sept. 3 at Toledo
Towson - Sept. 5 at East Carolina
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
William & Mary - Sept. 19 at Virginia


MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - Sept. 5 at Miami (Florida)Delaware State - Sept. 12 at Kent State
Florida A&M - Sept. 5 at South Florida
Howard - Sept. 5 at Appalachian State; Sept. 12 at Boston College
Morgan State - Sept. 5 at Air Force
North Carolina A&T - Sept. 12 at North Carolina
North Carolina Central - Sept. 12 at Duke; Sept. 19 at FIU
Norfolk State - Sept. 5 at Rutgers; Sept. 12 at Old Dominion; Sept. 19 at Marshall
Savannah State - Sept. 5 at Colorado State; Sept. 19 at Akron


MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis; Sept. 19 at Arkansas State
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota - Sept. 5 at Kansas State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh


Northeast
Wagner - Sept. 5 at Rice; Oct. 24 at BYU


Ohio Valley
Austin Peay - Sept. 12 at Southern Mississippi; Sept. 19 at Vanderbilt
Eastern Illinois - Sept. 12 at Northwestern
Eastern Kentucky - Sept. 12 at North Carolina State; Oct. 3 at Kentucky
Jacksonville State - Sept. 12 at Auburn
Murray State - Sept. 12 at Northern Illinois; Sept. 19 at Western Michigan
Southeast Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Missouri
Tennessee Tech - Sept. 5 at Houston
UT Martin - Sept. 5 at Mississippi; Oct. 31 at Arkansas


Patriot
Bucknell - Oct. 17 at Army
Colgate - Sept. 5 at Navy
Fordham - Sept. 4 at Army


Pioneer
San Diego - Sept. 5 at San Diego State


Southern
Chattanooga - Nov. 21 at Florida State
The Citadel - Sept. 19 at Georgia Southern; Nov. 21 at South Carolina
Furman - Sept. 12 at Virginia Tech; Sept. 19 at UCF
Samford - Sept. 26 at Louisville
VMI - Sept. 3 at Ball State
Western Carolina - Sept. 19 at Tennessee; Nov. 14 at Texas A&M
Wofford - Sept. 5 at Clemson; Sept. 19 at Idaho


Southland
Abilene Christian - Sept. 5 at Fresno State
Central Arkansas - Sept. 12 at Oklahoma State
Incarnate Word - Sept. 26 at UTEP
Lamar - Sept. 12 at Baylor
McNeese State - Sept. 5 at LSU
Nicholls - Sept. 12 at ULM; Sept. 26 at Colorado
Northwestern State - Sept. 12 at Louisiana-Lafayette; Sept. 19 at Mississippi State
Sam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio
Stephen F. Austin - Sept. 12 at TCU


SWAC
Alabama A&M - Sept. 5 at Cincinnati
Alcorn State - Sept. 3 at Georgia Tech
Grambling State - Sept. 5 at California
Jackson State - Sept. 5 at Middle Tennessee
Mississippi Valley State - Sept. 5 at New Mexico
Prairie View A&M - Sept. 12 at Texas State
Southern - Sept. 5 at Louisiana Tech; Sept. 26 at Georgia

[CHIP72]

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?170186-BR-12-FBS-Teams-on-Upset-Alert-vs-FCS-Opponents-in-2015

Last post was on July 5th and it was on Page 6, making it easy to miss.

I think the general thinking is that Villanova beating Connecticut would be one of the most likely "upsets", in part because it really wouldn't be an upset.

[Catatonic]

[QUOTE=The Yo Show;2233306]Since I didn't see a thread like this for this year, it seemed like the perfect time for this. What are the predictions of the community for the upsets for this year? I wanted to see what everyone else thought what the likely upsets were.
Big Sky

Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming
Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State
Presbyterian -Sept. 12 at Charlotte
CAA
Albany - Sept. 5 at Buffalo
James Madison - Sept. 26 at SMU
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Ohio Valley
Austin Peay - Sept. 12 at Southern Mississippi;
Southern
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho
Southland
Abilene Christian - Sept. 5 at Fresno State
Northwestern State - Sept. 12 at Louisiana-Lafayette
Sam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio

My list of contenders...some more improbable than others.

[The Yo Show]

Thanks. I didn't see the other thread. I guess this is useless now.

[The Yo Show]

My picks for most possible upsets are:
Here are ones that I feel are possible, some much more likely than others:

Big Sky
Idaho State - Sept. 18 at Boise State; Sept. 26 at UNLV
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming

Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy; Nov. 21 at Alabama
Liberty - Sept. 12 at West Virginia; Oct. 3 at Georgia State
Presbyterian - Sept. 5 at Miami (Ohio); Sept. 12 at Charlotte

CAA

Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
William & Mary - Sept. 19 at Virginia

MEAC
North Carolina Central - Sept. 12 at Duke; Sept. 19 at FIU

MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh

Ohio Valley

Eastern Illinois - Sept. 12 at Northwestern

Patriot
Bucknell - Oct. 17 at Army
Fordham - Sept. 4 at Army


Southern
Chattanooga - Nov. 21 at Florida State
The Citadel - Sept. 19 at Georgia Southern; Nov. 21 at South Carolina
Wofford - Sept. 5 at Clemson; Sept. 19 at Idaho

SouthlandSam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio



SWAC
Prairie View A&M - Sept. 12 at Texas State
Southern - Sept. 5 at Louisiana Tech; Sept. 26 at Georgia

[CHIP72]

Thanks. I didn't see the other thread. I guess this is useless now.

No, not at all - you provided some new fodder for discussion. I would say it should just be consolidated with the other thread.

[PantherRob82]

I like:
Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis; Sept. 19 at Arkansas State
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio

[KPSUL]

I like:
Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis; Sept. 19 at Arkansas State
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio

Good list, but I'd add JMU SMU, and towards the top if you're list is in order of most likely FCS victory

[ST_Lawson]

I like:
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois

I do like our chances in this game. The way U of I attendance has been lately, and with as close to "home" as this game is for us, it's not likely to be difficult from an "unfriendly crowd" perspective.
Massey Ratings has our game against Illinois as the 4th toughest game we'll play this season..."easier" than NDSU, ISUr, or UNI (which sounds about right to me) and only slightly more difficult than Coastal Carolina, ISUb, or SDSU.

[caribbeanhen]

has the rest of FBS caught on to No Dak State? No FBS game this year?

[DuckDuckGriz]

has the rest of FBS caught on to No Dak State? No FBS game this year?

Looks like it.

Though being part of the opening game on ESPN won't hurt them (or us) either.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I like: Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis; Sept. 19 at Arkansas State
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio

I think your love for the MVFC is blinding you a bit on these two. Memphis was 10-3 last year which included a win over BYU in a bowl game. The Tigers finished ranked in both major polls. They're the preseason favorite in the AAC West. If they don't beat the Bears by 24+ points I'll be shocked.

Arkansas State is generally a pretty tough SBC team which should be enough to beat Missouri State.

[Bisonator]

has the rest of FBS caught on to No Dak State? No FBS game this year?

We only have Iowa next year currently. My hope is we get a game with Arizona for 2017.

[PantherRob82]

Good list, but I'd add JMU SMU, and towards the top if you're list is in order of most likely FCS victory
In the order they were posted with losses removed. I just don't see JMU making the long trip and getting the win. Should be close though.

[clenz]

I think everyone is a little optomistic - though most are prefacing with "possibility" type wordings.

There are 110 games listed
FBS has a ~90-93% win % against the FCS
That translates to 100-102 wins
That means there are likely 10, give or take 1 or 2, FCS W's.

Big Sky
Cal Poly - Sept. 12 at Arizona State - <1%
Eastern Washington - Sept. 5 at Oregon - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 18 at Boise State - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV - <5%
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming - <1%
Northern Arizona - Sept. 19 at Arizona - <1%
Portland State - Sept. 5 at Washington State - <1%
Portland State - Oct. 10 at North Texas - <5%
Sacramento State - Sept. 12 at Washington - <1%
Southern Utah - Sept. 5 at Utah State - <1%
UC Davis - Sept. 3 at Nevada; Sept. 19 at Hawaii - <1%
Weber State - Sept. 4 at Oregon State - <1%

I don't see a Big Sky win...I know there's the upsets like Sac State over OSU a couple years ago but the teams with winnable games are bottom have teams.

I'll say 1-11 though to be safe


Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy - <1%
Charelston Southern - Nov. 21 at Alabama - <1%
Gardner-Webb - Sept. 5 at South Alabama - <5%
Liberty - Sept. 12 at West Virginia - <5%
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State - ~80%
Monmouth - Sept. 12 at Central Michigan - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 5 at Miami (Ohio) - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 12 at Charlotte - <1%

I'll go with 1 is very likely and I just don't see another one

1-7


CAA
Albany - Sept. 5 at Buffalo - <1%
Delaware - Sept. 26 at North Carolina - <1%
Elon - Sept. 3 at Wake Forest - <1%
James Madison - Sept. 26 at SMU - ~33%
Maine - Sept. 5 at Boston College - <1%
Maine - Sept. 19 at Tulane - <5%
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State - ~70%
Rhode Island - Sept. 5 at Syracuse - <1%
Richmond - Sept. 5 at Maryland - <1%
Stony Brook - Sept. 3 at Toledo - <1%
Towson - Sept. 5 at East Carolina - <1%
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut - ~55%
William & Mary - Sept. 19 at Virginia - <1%

I'll go with 2-11 with an "okay shot" at 3-10

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - Sept. 5 at Miami (Florida) - <1%
Delaware State - Sept. 12 at Kent State - <1%
Florida A&M - Sept. 5 at South Florida - <1%
Howard - Sept. 5 at Appalachian State - <1%
Howard - Sept. 12 at Boston College - <1%
Morgan State - Sept. 5 at Air Force - <1%
North Carolina A&T - Sept. 12 at North Carolina - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 12 at Duke - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 19 at FIU - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 5 at Rutgers - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 12 at Old Dominion - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 19 at Marshall - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 5 at Colorado State- - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 19 at Akron - <1%

0-14


MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa - ~50/50
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue - <10%
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis - <1%
Missouri State - Sept. 19 at Arkansas State - <1%
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State - ~55%
South Dakota - Sept. 5 at Kansas State - <1%
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas - ~50/50
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana - <15%
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois - <10%
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh - <20%

I'll go 3-10


Northeast
Wagner - Sept. 5 at Rice - <1%
Wagner - Oct. 24 at BYU - <1%

0-2

Ohio Valley
Austin Peay - Sept. 12 at Southern Mississippi - <1%
Austin Peay - Sept. 19 at Vanderbilt - <1%
Eastern Illinois - Sept. 12 at Northwestern - <10%
Eastern Kentucky - Sept. 12 at North Carolina State - <1%
Eastern Kentucky - Oct. 3 at Kentucky - <1%
Jacksonville State - Sept. 12 at Auburn - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 12 at Northern Illinois - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 19 at Western Michigan - <1%
Southeast Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Missouri - <1%
Tennessee Tech - Sept. 5 at Houston - <1%
UT Martin - Sept. 5 at Mississippi - <1%
UT Martin - Oct. 31 at Arkansas - <1%

0-12


Patriot
Bucknell - Oct. 17 at Army - <40%
Colgate - Sept. 5 at Navy - <10%
Fordham - Sept. 4 at Army - ~60%

1-3


Pioneer
San Diego - Sept. 5 at San Diego State - no chance in hell

0-1


Southern
Chattanooga - Nov. 21 at Florida State - <1%
The Citadel - Sept. 19 at Georgia Southern - <1%
The Citadel - Nov. 21 at South Carolina - <1%
Furman - Sept. 12 at Virginia Tech - <1%
Furman - Sept. 19 at UCF - <1%
Samford - Sept. 26 at Louisville - <1%
VMI - Sept. 3 at Ball State - <1%
Western Carolina - Sept. 19 at Tennessee - <1%
Western Carolina - Nov. 14 at Texas A&M - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 5 at Clemson - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho - 50/50

1-10


Southland
Abilene Christian - Sept. 5 at Fresno State - <1%
Central Arkansas - Sept. 12 at Oklahoma State - <1%
Incarnate Word - Sept. 26 at UTEP - <1%
Lamar - Sept. 12 at Baylor - <1%
McNeese State - Sept. 5 at LSU - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 12 at ULM - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 26 at Colorado - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 12 at Louisiana-Lafayett - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 19 at Mississippi State - <1%
Sam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech - ~50/50
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio ~50/50
Stephen F. Austin - Sept. 12 at TCU - <1%

I'll go 1-11

SWAC
Alabama A&M - Sept. 5 at Cincinnati - <1%
Alcorn State - Sept. 3 at Georgia Tech - <1%
Grambling State - Sept. 5 at California - <1%
Jackson State - Sept. 5 at Middle Tennessee - <1%
Mississippi Valley State - Sept. 5 at New Mexico - <1%
Prairie View A&M - Sept. 12 at Texas State - <1%
Southern - Sept. 5 at Louisiana Tech - <1%
Southern - Sept. 26 at Georgia - <1%

0-8




That gets me to 10-100

I didn't even mean to get through and land exactly where the % tell us it should. That was just my realistic gut reaction to each game

[PantherRob82]

I think your love for the MVFC is blinding you a bit on these two. Memphis was 10-3 last year which included a win over BYU in a bowl game. The Tigers finished ranked in both major polls. They're the preseason favorite in the AAC West. If they don't beat the Bears by 24+ points I'll be shocked.

Arkansas State is generally a pretty tough SBC team which should be enough to beat Missouri State.

An error on my part. No MVFC love. :)

[The Yo Show]

While I do have MVFC love, yeah I was going to say, that was just my initial listing of all FBS vs FCS games.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think everyone is a little optomistic - though most are prefacing with "possibility" type wordings.

There are 110 games listed
FBS has a ~90-93% win % against the FCS
That translates to 100-102 wins
That means there are likely 10, give or take 1 or 2, FCS W's.

Big Sky
Cal Poly - Sept. 12 at Arizona State - <1%
Eastern Washington - Sept. 5 at Oregon - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 18 at Boise State - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV - <5%
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming - <1%
Northern Arizona - Sept. 19 at Arizona - <1%
Portland State - Sept. 5 at Washington State - <1%
Portland State - Oct. 10 at North Texas - <5%
Sacramento State - Sept. 12 at Washington - <1%
Southern Utah - Sept. 5 at Utah State - <1%
UC Davis - Sept. 3 at Nevada; Sept. 19 at Hawaii - <1%
Weber State - Sept. 4 at Oregon State - <1%

I don't see a Big Sky win...I know there's the upsets like Sac State over OSU a couple years ago but the teams with winnable games are bottom have teams.

I'll say 1-11 though to be safe


Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy - <1% Troy was one of the bottom 10-15 FBS teams last year. I give CSU a 20% shot.
Charelston Southern - Nov. 21 at Alabama - <1%
Gardner-Webb - Sept. 5 at South Alabama - <5%
Liberty - Sept. 12 at West Virginia - <5%
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State - ~80%
Monmouth - Sept. 12 at Central Michigan - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 5 at Miami (Ohio) - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 12 at Charlotte - <1%

I'll go with 1 is very likely and I just don't see another one

1-7


CAA
Albany - Sept. 5 at Buffalo - <1%
Delaware - Sept. 26 at North Carolina - <1%
Elon - Sept. 3 at Wake Forest - <1%
James Madison - Sept. 26 at SMU - ~33%
Maine - Sept. 5 at Boston College - <1%
Maine - Sept. 19 at Tulane - <5%
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State - ~70% UNH has struggled recently against FBS foes. Long flight, I dunno... To me this is more like 30%....
Rhode Island - Sept. 5 at Syracuse - <1%
Richmond - Sept. 5 at Maryland - <1%
Stony Brook - Sept. 3 at Toledo - <1%
Towson - Sept. 5 at East Carolina - <1% ECU has to replace a ton from last year. Pirates have good talent base but Towson could be dangerous. 20%
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut - ~55% UConn is THAT bad. 'Nova will be favored by 2-4 points by the time the game starts...70%
William & Mary - Sept. 19 at Virginia - <1% Virginia is a bumbling mess while the Tribe play tough D. I think it could be interesting, 25%

I'll go with 2-11 with an "okay shot" at 3-10

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - Sept. 5 at Miami (Florida) - <1%
Delaware State - Sept. 12 at Kent State - <1%
Florida A&M - Sept. 5 at South Florida - <1%
Howard - Sept. 5 at Appalachian State - <1%
Howard - Sept. 12 at Boston College - <1%
Morgan State - Sept. 5 at Air Force - <1%
North Carolina A&T - Sept. 12 at North Carolina - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 12 at Duke - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 19 at FIU - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 5 at Rutgers - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 12 at Old Dominion - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 19 at Marshall - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 5 at Colorado State- - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 19 at Akron - <1%

0-14


MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa - ~50/50
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue - <10%
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis - <1%
Missouri State - Sept. 19 at Arkansas State - <1%
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State - ~55%
South Dakota - Sept. 5 at Kansas State - <1%
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas - ~50/50
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana - <15%
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois - <10%
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh - <20% I forgot Pitt lost their coach to Wisky. This might be even higher. The Panthers have had no stability since the stache left.....

I'll go 3-10


Northeast
Wagner - Sept. 5 at Rice - <1%
Wagner - Oct. 24 at BYU - <1%

0-2

Ohio Valley
Austin Peay - Sept. 12 at Southern Mississippi - <1%
Austin Peay - Sept. 19 at Vanderbilt - <1%
Eastern Illinois - Sept. 12 at Northwestern - <10%
Eastern Kentucky - Sept. 12 at North Carolina State - <1%
Eastern Kentucky - Oct. 3 at Kentucky - <1%
Jacksonville State - Sept. 12 at Auburn - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 12 at Northern Illinois - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 19 at Western Michigan - <1%
Southeast Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Missouri - <1%
Tennessee Tech - Sept. 5 at Houston - <1%
UT Martin - Sept. 5 at Mississippi - <1%
UT Martin - Oct. 31 at Arkansas - <1%

0-12


Patriot
Bucknell - Oct. 17 at Army - <40% A little high. The Bison have potential but beating a FBS team, even a terrible one would be a huge step.
Colgate - Sept. 5 at Navy - <10%
Fordham - Sept. 4 at Army - ~60%

1-3


Pioneer
San Diego - Sept. 5 at San Diego State - no chance in hell

0-1


Southern
Chattanooga - Nov. 21 at Florida State - <1%
The Citadel - Sept. 19 at Georgia Southern - <1%
The Citadel - Nov. 21 at South Carolina - <1%
Furman - Sept. 12 at Virginia Tech - <1%
Furman - Sept. 19 at UCF - <1%
Samford - Sept. 26 at Louisville - <1%
VMI - Sept. 3 at Ball State - <1%
Western Carolina - Sept. 19 at Tennessee - <1%
Western Carolina - Nov. 14 at Texas A&M - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 5 at Clemson - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho - 50/50

1-10


Southland
Abilene Christian - Sept. 5 at Fresno State - <1%
Central Arkansas - Sept. 12 at Oklahoma State - <1%
Incarnate Word - Sept. 26 at UTEP - <1%
Lamar - Sept. 12 at Baylor - <1%
McNeese State - Sept. 5 at LSU - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 12 at ULM - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 26 at Colorado - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 12 at Louisiana-Lafayett - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 19 at Mississippi State - <1%
Sam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech - ~50/50
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio ~50/50 A little too optimistic. SELA showed little against Tulane last year. Solich will have Bobcats ready, 20%
Stephen F. Austin - Sept. 12 at TCU - <1%

I'll go 1-11

SWAC
Alabama A&M - Sept. 5 at Cincinnati - <1%
Alcorn State - Sept. 3 at Georgia Tech - <1%
Grambling State - Sept. 5 at California - <1%
Jackson State - Sept. 5 at Middle Tennessee - <1%
Mississippi Valley State - Sept. 5 at New Mexico - <1%
Prairie View A&M - Sept. 12 at Texas State - <1%
Southern - Sept. 5 at Louisiana Tech - <1%
Southern - Sept. 26 at Georgia - <1%

0-8




That gets me to 10-100

I didn't even mean to get through and land exactly where the % tell us it should. That was just my realistic gut reaction to each game

Few thoughts I added.

I could see a couple of P5 scalps. The ACC, Big 12 and Big 10 have some scary games.

[superman7515]

I think UConn has a chance to upset Villanova and Iowa State might be able to squeak out a shocker against UNI.

[dgtw]

If Georgia State beats a FCS team, it would be an upset.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CHIP72]

I think UConn has a chance to upset Villanova and Iowa State might be able to squeak out a shocker against UNI.

I like what you did there.

FWIW (and not to derail the thread), but there are occasional debates on the Temple board that I (and Go Lehigh TU Owl) post on about Temple playing Delaware as the Owls' Division I-AA/FCS game. IMO the Blue Hens should rank #2 on Temple's Division I-AA/FCS opponent priority list behind only Villanova, even though the Owls could legitimately lose to the Blue Hens in some seasons.

[Catatonic]

I think everyone is a little optomistic - though most are prefacing with "possibility" type wordings.

There are 110 games listed
FBS has a ~90-93% win % against the FCS
That translates to 100-102 wins
That means there are likely 10, give or take 1 or 2, FCS W's.

Big Sky
Cal Poly - Sept. 12 at Arizona State - <1%
Eastern Washington - Sept. 5 at Oregon - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 18 at Boise State - <1%
Idaho State - Sept. 26 at UNLV - <5%
North Dakota - Sept. 5 at Wyoming - <1%
Northern Arizona - Sept. 19 at Arizona - <1%
Portland State - Sept. 5 at Washington State - <1%
Portland State - Oct. 10 at North Texas - <5%
Sacramento State - Sept. 12 at Washington - <1%
Southern Utah - Sept. 5 at Utah State - <1%
UC Davis - Sept. 3 at Nevada; Sept. 19 at Hawaii - <1%
Weber State - Sept. 4 at Oregon State - <1%

I don't see a Big Sky win...I know there's the upsets like Sac State over OSU a couple years ago but the teams with winnable games are bottom have teams.

I'll say 1-11 though to be safe


Big South
Charleston Southern - Sept. 12 at Troy - <1%
Charelston Southern - Nov. 21 at Alabama - <1%
Gardner-Webb - Sept. 5 at South Alabama - <5%
Liberty - Sept. 12 at West Virginia - <5%
Liberty - Oct. 3 at Georgia State - ~80%
Monmouth - Sept. 12 at Central Michigan - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 5 at Miami (Ohio) - <1%
Presbyterian - Sept. 12 at Charlotte - <1%

I'll go with 1 is very likely and I just don't see another one

1-7


CAA
Albany - Sept. 5 at Buffalo - <1%
Delaware - Sept. 26 at North Carolina - <1%
Elon - Sept. 3 at Wake Forest - <1%
James Madison - Sept. 26 at SMU - ~33%
Maine - Sept. 5 at Boston College - <1%
Maine - Sept. 19 at Tulane - <5%
New Hampshire - Sept. 3 at San Jose State - ~70%
Rhode Island - Sept. 5 at Syracuse - <1%
Richmond - Sept. 5 at Maryland - <1%
Stony Brook - Sept. 3 at Toledo - <1%
Towson - Sept. 5 at East Carolina - <1%
Villanova - Sept. 3 at Connecticut - ~55%
William & Mary - Sept. 19 at Virginia - <1%

I'll go with 2-11 with an "okay shot" at 3-10

MEAC
Bethune-Cookman - Sept. 5 at Miami (Florida) - <1%
Delaware State - Sept. 12 at Kent State - <1%
Florida A&M - Sept. 5 at South Florida - <1%
Howard - Sept. 5 at Appalachian State - <1%
Howard - Sept. 12 at Boston College - <1%
Morgan State - Sept. 5 at Air Force - <1%
North Carolina A&T - Sept. 12 at North Carolina - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 12 at Duke - <1%
North Carolina Central - Sept. 19 at FIU - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 5 at Rutgers - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 12 at Old Dominion - <1%
Norfolk State - Sept. 19 at Marshall - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 5 at Colorado State- - <1%
Savannah State - Sept. 19 at Akron - <1%

0-14


MVFC
Illinois State - Sept. 5 at Iowa - ~50/50
Indiana State - Sept. 12 at Purdue - <10%
Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Memphis - <1%
Missouri State - Sept. 19 at Arkansas State - <1%
Northern Iowa - Sept. 5 at Iowa State - ~55%
South Dakota - Sept. 5 at Kansas State - <1%
South Dakota State - Sept. 5 at Kansas - ~50/50
Southern Illinois - Sept. 5 at Indiana - <15%
Western Illinois - Sept. 12 at Illinois - <10%
Youngstown State - Sept. 5 at Pittsburgh - <20%

I'll go 3-10


Northeast
Wagner - Sept. 5 at Rice - <1%
Wagner - Oct. 24 at BYU - <1%

0-2

Ohio Valley
Austin Peay - Sept. 12 at Southern Mississippi - <1%
Austin Peay - Sept. 19 at Vanderbilt - <1%
Eastern Illinois - Sept. 12 at Northwestern - <10%
Eastern Kentucky - Sept. 12 at North Carolina State - <1%
Eastern Kentucky - Oct. 3 at Kentucky - <1%
Jacksonville State - Sept. 12 at Auburn - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 12 at Northern Illinois - <1%
Murray State - Sept. 19 at Western Michigan - <1%
Southeast Missouri State - Sept. 5 at Missouri - <1%
Tennessee Tech - Sept. 5 at Houston - <1%
UT Martin - Sept. 5 at Mississippi - <1%
UT Martin - Oct. 31 at Arkansas - <1%

0-12


Patriot
Bucknell - Oct. 17 at Army - <40%
Colgate - Sept. 5 at Navy - <10%
Fordham - Sept. 4 at Army - ~60%

1-3


Pioneer
San Diego - Sept. 5 at San Diego State - no chance in hell

0-1


Southern
Chattanooga - Nov. 21 at Florida State - <1%
The Citadel - Sept. 19 at Georgia Southern - <1%
The Citadel - Nov. 21 at South Carolina - <1%
Furman - Sept. 12 at Virginia Tech - <1%
Furman - Sept. 19 at UCF - <1%
Samford - Sept. 26 at Louisville - <1%
VMI - Sept. 3 at Ball State - <1%
Western Carolina - Sept. 19 at Tennessee - <1%
Western Carolina - Nov. 14 at Texas A&M - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 5 at Clemson - <1%
Wofford - Sept. 19 at Idaho - 50/50

1-10


Southland
Abilene Christian - Sept. 5 at Fresno State - <1%
Central Arkansas - Sept. 12 at Oklahoma State - <1%
Incarnate Word - Sept. 26 at UTEP - <1%
Lamar - Sept. 12 at Baylor - <1%
McNeese State - Sept. 5 at LSU - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 12 at ULM - <1%
Nicholls - Sept. 26 at Colorado - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 12 at Louisiana-Lafayett - <1%
Northwestern State - Sept. 19 at Mississippi State - <1%
Sam Houston State - Sept. 5 at Texas Tech - ~50/50
Southeastern Louisiana - Sept. 19 at Ohio ~50/50
Stephen F. Austin - Sept. 12 at TCU - <1%

I'll go 1-11

SWAC
Alabama A&M - Sept. 5 at Cincinnati - <1%
Alcorn State - Sept. 3 at Georgia Tech - <1%
Grambling State - Sept. 5 at California - <1%
Jackson State - Sept. 5 at Middle Tennessee - <1%
Mississippi Valley State - Sept. 5 at New Mexico - <1%
Prairie View A&M - Sept. 12 at Texas State - <1%
Southern - Sept. 5 at Louisiana Tech - <1%
Southern - Sept. 26 at Georgia - <1%

0-8




That gets me to 10-100

I didn't even mean to get through and land exactly where the % tell us it should. That was just my realistic gut reaction to each game


My thoughts about a few of your picks.

Northwestern State took down a pretty good (9-5) La Tech team last year, a team that schooled La Lafayette. Northwestern might lose to La Lafayette, but they have more than a 1% chance to pick up a win. I'd say 40%, maybe higher if Rivers works out at QB for them.

Charleston Southern has more than a 1% chance to beat Troy imo. Troy lost to Abilene Christian last year and while they have a new coach, much of the talent is left over. It takes time to change the culture and personnel. Charleston Southern is arguably better than ACU. I'd say 50/50 on this one.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think UConn has a chance to upset Villanova and Iowa State might be able to squeak out a shocker against UNI.

UConn's 2014 results...2-10

BYU L 10-35
Stony Brook W 19-16
Boise State L 21-38
@ South Florida L 14-17
Temple L 10-36
BYE
@ Tulane L 3-12
bye
@ East Carolina L 21-31
UCF W 37-29 very surprising! xrotatehx
Army (Yankee Stadium) L 21-35 xsmhx
Bye 3rd of the year!
Cincinnati L 0-41
@ Memphis 10-41
SMU L 20-27 The Mustangs only win of the year! xslapfightx

[Catatonic]

To underscore Clenz's point about how infrequently FCS teams beat their FBS counterparts, I could find only one FCS team favored on Sportbook.com to win on the opening weekend. Villanova over UConn by 3.

[The Yo Show]

Well lets examine that further. Given some betting lines out right now, which of them seem like good bets? Ill try to put a list of current betting lines. The only I know right now are:
YSU vs Pitt (Pitt -15.5)
Furman vs Army (Army -7)

[The Yo Show]

I guess i meant spreads, not betting lines. Can you tell I'm not a gambler? Lol.
Some more:

UNI vs Iowa State (Iowa State -9)
Illinois State vs Iowa (Iowa -8)
SDSU vs Kansas ( Kansas -5.5)

[Yote 53]

I guess i meant spreads, not betting lines. Can you tell I'm not a gambler? Lol.
Some more:

UNI vs Iowa State (Iowa State -9)
Illinois State vs Iowa (Iowa -8)
SDSU vs Kansas ( Kansas -5.5)

I could see SDSU beating Kansas, though I don't expect they will. It is plausible.

I know there is love for ISUr to beat Iowa. Isn't going to happen. If Iowa loses this game Kirk Ferentz won't make it through the end of the season. I actually think Iowa is set for a rebound year and will be better than expected.

I fully expect UNI to beat Iowa St. Rhoades has that program going backwards with a capital B. They are bad, and getting worse.

[BEAR]

Something I learned when UCA came to the FCS when it comes to FBS opponents..it's not necessarily the talent level (though there is some of that) but rather the depth of the FBS teams that make the difference. Sunbelt conference is a prime victim of FCS upsets. SEC...not so much. When your FCS team's defense wears out in the third or fourth quarter, most FBS teams throw in their depth and take advantage. Give all FCS schools another 20+ scholly players and that 10% win number goes up dramatically.

[clenz]

Something I learned when UCA came to the FCS when it comes to FBS opponents..it's not necessarily the talent level (though there is some of that) but rather the depth of the FBS teams that make the difference. Sunbelt conference is a prime victim of FCS upsets. SEC...not so much. When your FCS team's defense wears out in the third or fourth quarter, most FBS teams throw in their depth and take advantage. Give all FCS schools another 20+ scholly players and that 10% win number goes up dramatically.
That's exactly right.

I can tell you having seen UNI play Iowa and Iowa State in person, and have seen just as many games involving those two as UNI the last couple years (sadly a byproduct of living here) when it comes to starters UNI is just about even starter for starter with Iowa at every position (with some positions just a head and some just behind) and likely a head of Iowa State at most positions. The issue is the second like at both we start to see a gap. By the time we get to rotation guys that are needed by the 4th quarter by a play or two here or there to fill in we start to see that difference so show. That's the case with Iowa State, whom as they sit right now is likely in the 18-25 range in a FCS poll. Take the depth that those extra 22 scholarships give them and they become WIU or MSU

That's been the biggest difference between NDSU and the rest of the MVFC (mostly UNI) and FCS the last couple years. Starter for starter UNI is every bit NDSU the last couple years sans QB play, though Sawyer properly used is damn good, some starters a little better, some a little worse, most pretty even....I know I'll get crushed for that, oh well..... UNI's talent level is pretty damn close to the 05-09 years where they were a top 5 team every year. The difference has been the depth NDSU built was superious to UNI's. UNI didn't need that kind of depth previously because no one else in the MVFC pushed them too. UNI's depth last year and going forward is catching back up.

[Sycamore62]

I do like our chances in this game. The way U of I attendance has been lately, and with as close to "home" as this game is for us, it's not likely to be difficult from an "unfriendly crowd" perspective.
Massey Ratings has our game against Illinois as the 4th toughest game we'll play this season..."easier" than NDSU, ISUr, or UNI (which sounds about right to me) and only slightly more difficult than Coastal Carolina, ISUb, or SDSU.

I'd like to see this. Living around a bunch of U of I fans and being married to a grad would make me really happy to rub that one in.

[eiu1999]

I'd like to see this. Living around a bunch of U of I fans and being married to a grad would make me really happy to rub that one in.

If you want more U of I fodder, find Beckman's press conference from the B10 media day. Priceless.

[knucklehead]

Read and enjoy Chris Lang's yearly FBS vs FCS matchup breakdown. http://www.newsadvance.com/sports/liberty_university/chris_lang_blog/the-guide-to-fcs-vs-fbs-games/article_01246a9c-45ed-11e5-9f41-f7e291694bac.html?mode=jqm

[tomq04]

EWU is ready to play Oregon tough...but not sure anyone is expecting a W besides the team in the locker room.

[Yote 53]

That's exactly right.

I can tell you having seen UNI play Iowa and Iowa State in person, and have seen just as many games involving those two as UNI the last couple years (sadly a byproduct of living here) when it comes to starters UNI is just about even starter for starter with Iowa at every position (with some positions just a head and some just behind) and likely a head of Iowa State at most positions. The issue is the second like at both we start to see a gap. By the time we get to rotation guys that are needed by the 4th quarter by a play or two here or there to fill in we start to see that difference so show. That's the case with Iowa State, whom as they sit right now is likely in the 18-25 range in a FCS poll. Take the depth that those extra 22 scholarships give them and they become WIU or MSU

That's been the biggest difference between NDSU and the rest of the MVFC (mostly UNI) and FCS the last couple years. Starter for starter UNI is every bit NDSU the last couple years sans QB play, though Sawyer properly used is damn good, some starters a little better, some a little worse, most pretty even....I know I'll get crushed for that, oh well..... UNI's talent level is pretty damn close to the 05-09 years where they were a top 5 team every year. The difference has been the depth NDSU built was superious to UNI's. UNI didn't need that kind of depth previously because no one else in the MVFC pushed them too. UNI's depth last year and going forward is catching back up.


Clenz, I agree with you (that's a first!) and I'll add I really believe ISU does not have the depth they need to beat UNI. ISU has been horrible in recruiting the last few years. They rebuilt the stadium in Ames, they're marketing the crap out of the team, I work with ISU fans for who it is en vogue to "support the team", etc. Truth is it is all lipstick on a pig. The football program sucks right now and Rhoades's "So Proud" speeches aren't going to cut it too much longer.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Clenz, I agree with you (that's a first!) and I'll add I really believe ISU does not have the depth they need to beat UNI. ISU has been horrible in recruiting the last few years. They rebuilt the stadium in Ames, they're marketing the crap out of the team, I work with ISU fans for who it is en vogue to "support the team", etc. Truth is it is all lipstick on a pig. The football program sucks right now and Rhoades's "So Proud" speeches aren't going to cut it too much longer.



Rhoades' post game comments last versus the Bison are classic.

He knew NDSU's ground and pound offense was coming but still his 22 scholarship more FBS team got bitch-slapped.

UNI has a very good chance to beat them this year.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

ECU just lost their starting QB Kurt Benkert for the year with a torn ACL. If Towson turns out to be a decent team this could be a really interesting game. The Pirates entered the year with a lot of questions and now have added a huge one 10 days before the season opener.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

ESPN release....


Benkert played three games behind Shane Carden. He opened training camp in a three-man battle for the starting job against junior college transfer Blake Kemp (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/3126168/blake-kemp) and junior Cody Keith (http://espn.go.com/college-football/player/_/id/514841/cody-keith). Keith missed two weeks of drills with a foot injury before returning Tuesday. East Carolina opens at home against Towson on Sept. 5.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/13517535/east-carolina-pirates-starting-quarterback-kurt-benkert-year

[The Yo Show]

Update on the Pitt game: Pitt has their star wide receiver (Tyler Boyd) out. Their starting DE (Blair), who had the only pass pressure last year, is also out. Also out are a starting DT, and three starting offensive linemen (the one was injured a while ago and two starters recently came out as not playing so the RG and RT are both freshmen). Sounds like this game is much more winnable for YSU potentially.