Massey Ratings

[SU DOG]

If this has already been posted I apologize, but I don't remember a discussion here. I'm having trouble determining if this is new or not. Interesting FCS top 25, at least to me:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FCS

[centennial]

MVFC too high....

[SU DOG]

What is also fun here is that when you click on your team, it pops up your schedule with your % chance of winning and the predicted score of each game. For example Samford has a 58% chance of winning the opener with UCA (33-30 win), but only a 32% chance that we can beat the UTC Mocs (a 21-28 loss).

[OL FU]

What is also fun here is that when you click on your team, it pops up your schedule with your % chance of winning and the predicted score of each game. For example Samford has a 58% chance of winning the opener with UCA (33-30 win), but only a 32% chance that we can beat the UTC Mocs (a 21-28 loss).

That settles it. Three wins for Furman this year.

[FUBeAR]

That settles it. Three wins for Furman this year.

I hear ya OL FU. I found it interesting that Mr. Massey predicts Mercer to lose badly to FU, Chatt, Samford, and The Citadel. He says that Mercer's Average Chance of Winning these games is only 15% and he predicts an Average Margin of Defeat in these 4 games of 16.5 points.

In 2014, the Average Margin of Defeat for Mercer in these 4 games was 4.25 points (-5 vs. FU, -7 vs. Chatt, -3 vs. Samford, and -2 vs. The Citadel). In each of these 2014 games, Mercer had the ball late in the 4th quarter with a chance to win or at least force OT. But this year, they have almost no chance of even competing in any of these games and will lose by almost 4x the margin that they lost in 2014; with all of their starters returning and what I've seen ranked as a very strong recruiting class.

The season is lost! I'm emailing Coach Lamb this morning asking him to just tank it; play only the young players, and look to 2017 or 2018 when Mercer finally may have a chance to compete in the SoCon. Also, I'm cancelling my season tickets order & my away game hotel reservations, and taking the ESPN Watch app off of my phone! xsmiley_wix

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

What is also fun here is that when you click on your team, it pops up your schedule with your % chance of winning and the predicted score of each game. For example Samford has a 58% chance of winning the opener with UCA (33-30 win), but only a 32% chance that we can beat the UTC Mocs (a 21-28 loss).

That is a cool option....I'm not sure I agree with the rating system, but it is fun to check out

[Lehigh'98]

Lehigh will be 3-8 this year with 1 conference win against G'town according to Massey. Sounds about right to me.

Here is each Patriot League's team chances of going 6-0 in the league according to Massey:


Fordham
26.3%


Lehigh
0.2%


Lafayette
2.0%


HC
0.6%


Bucknell
1.4%


G'town
0.03%

[DFW HOYA]

Lehigh will be 3-8 this year with 1 conference win against G'town according to Massey. Sounds about right to me.

The Engineers will do better than that.

And as for Georgetown's 85% probablility of a win over Columbia, I'm not buying it. Al Bagnoli has that date circled as the end of the streak, given that it won't happen a week earlier in the final game of the Fordham series. (Massey's prediction of that game for the Light Blue: 0%.)

[BEAR]

What is also fun here is that when you click on your team, it pops up your schedule with your % chance of winning and the predicted score of each game. For example Samford has a 58% chance of winning the opener with UCA (33-30 win), but only a 32% chance that we can beat the UTC Mocs (a 21-28 loss).

It has us winning our games by an average of 10+ points but losing games by an average of 3 points. PLEASE don't let it be another year where a field goal knocks us out the playoffs! I hate losing close games. xbangxxbangxxbangx

[CFBfan]

Lehigh will be 3-8 this year with 1 conference win against G'town according to Massey. Sounds about right to me.

Here is each Patriot League's team chances of going 6-0 in the league according to Massey:


Fordham
26.3%


Lehigh
0.2%


Lafayette
2.0%


HC
0.6%


Bucknell
1.4%


G'town
0.03%



where is Gate??

[CrazyCat]

It's the same as the final rating last year. http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11605&s=262657

[chattownmocs]

It's the same as the final rating last year. http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=11605&s=262657

No it isn't. But it is a little too close.

[KPSUL]

You need to go to the year pull down menu in the upper left. Click on 2015, you'll see it is not same.

[CrazyCat]

Sorry, I took a quick look. It is different. I personally won't use any of the "math" ratings until they get some actual data from the current season.

[van]

where is Gate??

Hamilton

[underdawg]

If this has already been posted I apologize, but I don't remember a discussion here. I'm having trouble determining if this is new or not. Interesting FCS top 25, at least to me:

http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf&sub=FCS


Wow! SIU 11th in nation but lose five games by average of one score--tough season in the Valley again

[underdawg]

MVFC too high....

Nah, only 9 of top 15--urk!!! and SIU has to play number 17 Liberty this year too

[Lehigh'98]

where is Gate??

Whoops, Gate 1.1%

[bison137]

Lehigh will be 3-8 this year with 1 conference win against G'town according to Massey. Sounds about right to me.

Here is each Patriot League's team chances of going 6-0 in the league according to Massey:


Fordham
26.3%


Lehigh
0.2%


Lafayette
2.0%


HC
0.6%


Bucknell
1.4%


G'town
0.03%





Actually Massey predicts LU will have 4.5 wins overall - with 2.4 wins in the Patriot League.

[Gordon Shumway]

I like what they say, but it is probably a tad optimistic, as they have UNH winning every game. The closest call is a 3-point 55% probability over San Jose State. I'll take it, but I doubt it.

[bison137]

I like what they say, but it is probably a tad optimistic, as they have UNH winning every game. The closest call is a 3-point 55% probability over San Jose State. I'll take it, but I doubt it.



They don't really predict an undefeated season for UNH - just that they are favored in each game. Putting it all together, they predict 9.2 wins and 1.8 losses.

[walliver]

Interesting that the second-highest rated SoCon team (WCU) is predicted to have a losing record : 5-6

[SU DOG]

Interesting that the second-highest rated SoCon team (WCU) is predicted to have a losing record : 5-6

3rd highest rated.

[BISON Thunder]

I like what they say, but it is probably a tad optimistic, as they have UNH winning every game. The closest call is a 3-point 55% probability over San Jose State. I'll take it, but I doubt it.

Similar predicted percentages as Coastal Carolina. Will be interesting to see how CC does against Western Illinois in September. UNH's new stadium ready to go?

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Similar predicted percentages as Coastal Carolina. Will be interesting to see how CC does against Western Illinois in September. UNH's new stadium ready to go?


IMO, Western Ill is going to be a good team this year.

CC will be very good also this year. Have to give the edge to CC in this game.

[ngineer]

Lehigh will be 3-8 this year with 1 conference win against G'town according to Massey. Sounds about right to me.

Here is each Patriot League's team chances of going 6-0 in the league according to Massey:


Fordham
26.3%


Lehigh
0.2%


Lafayette
2.0%


HC
0.6%


Bucknell
1.4%


G'town
0.03%




Nine of Lehigh's eleven games are to be decided within one score. JMU and Fordham being the only two losses by more than six. While pure speculation based upon a lot of figures that may not even be relevant come September, it is also pretty realistic considering the history of the PL. Another "throw the blanket over the League" season, with the exception of Fordham's head sticking out at the top and Georgetown's toes at the bottom. (;-)

[chattownmocs]

Chattanooga with at least 68% chance of winning every FCS game according to this.

[Gordon Shumway]

Similar predicted percentages as Coastal Carolina. Will be interesting to see how CC does against Western Illinois in September. UNH's new stadium ready to go?

Not until next year. They just finished the pilings and started pouring concrete in the last couple of weeks.

[Catsfan90]

So I remember last year that the AGS Poll was figured into Massey ratings but it appears as though this year it isn't. Did something change, or did I just read it Incorrectly?

[ElCid]

So I remember last year that the AGS Poll was figures into Massey ratings but it appears as though this year it isn't. Did something change, or did I just read it Incorrectly?

I do not believe that the AGS poll has every been included, but I might be wrong. Read the Massey methodology.