Greatest News: Jeter Snubbed

[UNHWildCats]

Justin Morneau wins AL MVP. aside from Ortiz winning this was the best possible result.

[Gil Dobie]

Justin Morneau wins AL MVP. aside from Ortiz winning this was the best possible result.

Big Surprise!! Good news for Twins fans.

[youwouldno]

WHOA!!! GO TWINS!

(yes I'm a Twins fan, random I know)

[AppGuy04]

Told ya, nobody votes for intangibles

[GannonFan]

And so Jeter does not get it as a career appreciation award - good news indeed!!!!

[BeauFoster]

I would take Jessica Beil over the MVP trophy any day of the week

[griz37]

I would take Jessica Beil over the MVP trophy any day of the week

Is he really dating Jessica Biel? Yet another reason to hate him! That lucky bastard!

[HiHiYikas]

"Intangibles" is a fine way to throw a smoke screen over "I am too stupid to pay attention to complex, detailed stats."

Jeter - 138 Runs Created (most in AL), 33 Win Shares (1st in AL)
Morneau - 121 Runs Created (4th in AL), 27 Win Shares (4th in AL)

Jeter - .344 BA, 14 HR, 34 SB, .900 OPS
Morneau - .321 BA, 34 HR, 3 SB, .934 OPS

It's a close, close, race, but I'd guess that sabermetricians would label this one another missed (though certainly not poor) MVP choice. It happens about every other year.

[AppGuy04]

"Intangibles" is a fine way to throw a smoke screen over "I am too stupid to pay attention to complex, detailed stats."

Jeter - 138 Runs Created (most in AL), 33 Win Shares (1st in AL)
Morneau - 121 Runs Created (4th in AL), 27 Win Shares (4th in AL)

Jeter - .344 BA, 14 HR, 34 SB, .900 OPS
Morneau - .321 BA, 34 HR, 3 SB, .934 OPS

It's a close, close, race, but I'd guess that sabermetricians would label this one another missed (though certainly not poor) MVP choice. It happens about every other year.

I'm not gonna take that as an insult just cause we're "on the same team." But I will say this. We have all known for a long time that voters like the sexy numbers aka homeruns, rbi's. This is the reason I predicted Jeter would not win it.

[HiHiYikas]

I'm not gonna take that as an insult just cause we're "on the same team." But I will say this. We have all known for a long time that voters like the sexy numbers aka homeruns, rbi's. This is the reason I predicted Jeter would not win it.
Oh, I don't intend it as an insult, and you are spot on with your assessment. You seem to think "intangibles" is as stupid an expression as I do.

There are a lot of people in the sports media who say things like "he has intangibles" or "what ever IT is, he's got IT." What they really mean to say is "I don't completely know what I'm talking about."

I think Morneau is a very good choice, but I had hoped this would be a year when the "sexy" numbers didn't win the day - even if that did mean the MVP went to someone in pinstripes.

[UNHWildCats]

Papi: Runs created 146, Win Shares 29, HR 54, OPS 1.049

[HiHiYikas]

Papi: Runs created 146, Win Shares 29, HR 54, OPS 1.049
Ortiz has only 127 runs created, not 146 (2nd in the AL, behind Jeter's 138)

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=batting&league_filter[0]=1&orderBy=rc&direction=DESC&page=1

Plus, he has a clutch factor of -6.2 to Jeter's 6.7 and Morneau's 4.2. Plus, he has 0.1 Fielding Win shares to Jeter's 4.6 and Morneau's 2.0. Neither Jeter nor Morneau were tops in clutch factor or fielding win shares, but their numbers are enough to illustrate that they contributed to their teams more evenly than Ortiz.

Ortiz is an outstanding DH who had an excellent 2006. He stands as an illustration of why there maybe ought to be a specific award for DH's. Of course, then a DH wouldn't get MVP even if he really did deserve it (and Ortiz clearly did not this season.)

All this converstaion ignores the fact that the REAL AL MVP this season is Johan Santana, whose 156 Runs Created (based on a formula adjusted for pitchers) demolished Jeter's 138 and Papi's 127. Santana is a good argument against position-specific awards, since voters worngly assumed that giving him the Cy Young was enough. It was not enough, not by a long shot.

[Gil Dobie]

It's an MVP vote not a computer or statistics ranking.

[UNHWildCats]

i dont care what ur clutch rankings say there is no more clutch hitter then Ortiz!

[UNHWildCats]

According to baseball-refernce.com Ortiz led AL hitters in runs created with 146. Jeter had 123

[Marcus Garvey]

Did anybody see Jeter on the Michigan sideline during Saturday's Ohio St. game? WTF????
ABC explained that he was offered a baseball scholarship to Michigan, that's why he was there. Nevermind the fact that Jeter spurned the scholly and signed right away with the Yankees organization (clearly a very smart move on his part BTW).

Hell, I was accepted to Lafayette, but didn't go there. Lafayette guys, I think I'm gonna chill on the sideline for next year's Lehigh game. You all down with that? :rolleyes:

[HiHiYikas]

i dont care what ur clutch rankings say there is no more clutch hitter then Ortiz!
Well, the specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one good way of looking at it.

David Ortiz doesn't come out so good in this particular set of computations. He had about 40 guys ahead of him when it comes to BA/RISP, including Jeter, who was a good 100 points higher. Even if Bill James' clutch rating formula is not "definitive" (no stat proposes to be, anyway) - when you've got 70 guys with better clutch ratings than you (as Ortiz did this year), it's going to be hard to mess around with real numbers and make the case you're factually a clutch hitter.

There are 14 different versions of the Runs Created formula; I guess that explains the discrepancy. Hardball times uses one of the most complicated, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. Baseball Reference uses the easiest one.

The most basic formula is just TB x OBP, which explains Ortiz's 146 (355x.413) Given his less-than-stellar BA/RISP, and the fact that Fenway has a hitter-favoring park factor, the downward adjustment makes sense in the more complete formula. Jeter had the 2nd-highest BA/RISP in the AL, and played more often in a park with a factor of less than 1 (statistically, a pitcher's park).


It's an MVP vote not a computer or statistics ranking.
Well, obviously. But in a league where everybody plays everybody else, it's important to have numbers that back up your choices. In baseball, statistics aren't everything, but they enrich everything. If Justin Morneau had 7 win shares (like, say Rod Barajas) instead of 27, he wouldn't be in the picture.

[UNHWildCats]

Well, the specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of "clutch hitting," just one good way of looking at it.

David Ortiz doesn't come out so good in this particular set of computations. He had about 40 guys ahead of him when it comes to BA/RISP, including Jeter, who was a good 100 points higher. Even if Bill James' clutch rating formula is not "definitive" (no stat proposes to be, anyway) - when you've got 70 guys with better clutch ratings than you (as Ortiz did this year), it's going to be hard to mess around with real numbers and make the case you're factually a clutch hitter.

There are 14 different versions of the Runs Created formula; I guess that explains the discrepancy. Hardball times uses one of the most complicated, which includes the impact of hitting well with runners in scoring position, and is adjusted for ballpark impact. Baseball Reference uses the easiest one.

The most basic formula is just TB x OBP, which explains Ortiz's 146 (355x.413) Given his less-than-stellar BA/RISP, and the fact that Fenway has a hitter-favoring park factor, the downward adjustment makes sense in the more complete formula. Jeter had the 2nd-highest BA/RISP in the AL, and played more often in a park with a factor of less than 1 (statistically, a pitcher's park).


Well, obviously. But in a league where everybody plays everybody else, it's important to have numbers that back up your choices. In baseball, statistics aren't everything, but they enrich everything. If Justin Morneau had 7 win shares (like, say Rod Barajas) instead of 27, he wouldn't be in the picture.

Whats more clutch a 3 run double when your ahead by 7 runs already or a walk off 3 run HR when trailing 6-4 in the bottom of the 9th?

[HiHiYikas]

Whats more clutch a 3 run double when your ahead by 7 runs already or a walk off 3 run HR when trailing 6-4 in the bottom of the 9th?
That question doesn't exactly speak to the clutch formula that's being used. It would be more relevant in this case to ask how often a guy drives in 3 runs when he's up with the opportunity to drive in 3 runs.

Anyway, here are some basic numbers that speak directly to whether or not a player is "clutch." Whether Ortiz is more clutch than Jeter depends on your definition of clutch. The numbers indicate that there's no definition of clutch that gives Ortiz a significant edge over Jeter.

Jeter with bases empty – 116 hits, .277 BA, 7 HR (50% of total HR)
Ortiz with bases empty – 76 hits, .277 BA, 33 HR (61% of total HR)

Jeter w/RISP – 59 hits, .381 BA, 6 HR (42% of total)
Ortiz w/RISP – 45 hits, .288 BA, 10 HR (18% of total)

Jeter, behind in count – 54 hits, .316 BA, 5 HR (36% of total)
Ortiz, behind in count – 30 hits, .204 BA, 6 HR (11% of total)

Jeter, batting with 2 outs - 58 hits, .347 BA, 3 HR (21% total)
Ortiz, batting with 2 outs – 61 hits, .293 BA, 19 HR (35% total)

Jeter, late innings of close games - 13 hits, .245 BA, 1 HR (7% total)
Ortiz, late innings of close games – 15 hits, .267 BA, 5 HR (9% total)

[UNHWildCats]

That question doesn't exactly speak to the clutch formula that's being used. It would be more to the relevant in this case to ask how often a guy drives in 3 runs when he's up with the opportunity to drive in 3 runs.

Anyway, here are some basic numbers that speak directly to whether or not a player is "clutch." Whether Ortiz is more clutch than Jeter depends on your definition of clutch. The numbers indicate that there's no definition of clutch that gives Ortiz a significant edge over Jeter.

Jeter with bases empty – 116 hits, .277 BA, 7 HR (50% of total HR)
Ortiz with bases empty – 76 hits, .277 BA, 33 HR (61% of total HR)

Jeter w/RISP – 59 hits, .381 BA, 6 HR (42% of total)
Ortiz w/RISP – 45 hits, .288 BA, 10 HR (18% of total)

Jeter, behind in count – 54 hits, .316 BA, 5 HR (36% of total)
Ortiz, behind in count – 30 hits, .204 BA, 6 HR (11% of total)

Jeter, batting with 2 outs - 58 hits, .347 BA, 3 HR (21% total)
Ortiz, batting with 2 outs – 61 hits, .293 BA, 19 HR (35% total)

Jeter, late innings of close games - 13 hits, .245 BA, 1 HR (7% total)
Ortiz, late innings of close games – 15 hits, .267 BA, 5 HR (9% total)

thats where clutch comes in when the games on the line.

[youwouldno]

Actually Mauer should have won it, but at least the voters are consistent in focusing too much on homers and RBIs.

[Sam Adams]

Derek Jeter: a good ball player and one of the most overrated players in the past 20 yrs.

[Reed Rothchild]

Jeter wasn't snubbed at all. Morneau was most valuable to his team. Without him, the Twins stay in the middle of the AL Central. Without Jeter, the Yanks still can make at LEAST the Wild Card because of all the other talent.

[Reed Rothchild]

Derek Jeter: an amazing ballplayer, person, and one of the most hated players by 1 team (RedSox) than anyother.

[HiHiYikas]

thats where clutch comes in when the games on the line.
In that case, Ortiz isn't significantly better than Jeter; 3 more AB's, 2 more hits, .022 points, 2% higher in HR percentage.

One might argue from a comparison with A-Rod, who virtually nobody regards as clutch.

A-Rod, late innings of close games - 42 AB, 14 hits, .264 BA, 2 HR (6% total)
Ortiz, late innings of close games – 45 AB, 15 hits, .267 BA, 5 HR (9% total)

If Ortiz was clutch in 2006, so was A-Rod. If A-Rod wasn't clutch, neither was Ortiz.

Incidentally, In the late-innings close-game situation, Yuniesky Betancourt led the league with 22 hits, Javy Lopez batted .550, and Taz Iguchi Hit 28% of his 18 HR.

Ortiz's 5 HR's did tie with three other players to lead the league in that situation: Jermaine Dye, Joe Crede, and Taz Iguchi also had 5.

[Gil Dobie]

Actually Mauer should have won it, but at least the voters are consistent in focusing too much on homers and RBIs.

Mauer didn't have as many key hits as Morneau. Living in the Twin Cities, Morneau was in the sports highlights a lot more than Mauer. Both had great seasons, but Morneau delivered when the game was on the line, more often.

[dbackjon]

Morneau well a great choice. Easy for Jeter to build up nice stats when EVERY SINGLE PERSON in the lineup is an All-Star. What Morneau did was 1,000 times more impressive.

[youwouldno]

Mauer didn't have as many key hits as Morneau. Living in the Twin Cities, Morneau was in the sports highlights a lot more than Mauer. Both had great seasons, but Morneau delivered when the game was on the line, more often.

I'm a huge Twins fan-- I watched at least 75% of their games on TV and follow the team closely in general. Morneau might be good for more highlights because he hits more home runs, but he's also a first baseman (and a mediocre one defensively). Mauer is one of the better defensive players at a premium defensive position, and he also had one of the best offensive seasons by a catcher in history.

Other guys did more or less what Morneau did... Hafner, Ortiz are a couple. But Mauer is really special.

[Pards Rule]

Did anybody see Jeter on the Michigan sideline during Saturday's Ohio St. game? WTF????
ABC explained that he was offered a baseball scholarship to Michigan, that's why he was there. Nevermind the fact that Jeter spurned the scholly and signed right away with the Yankees organization (clearly a very smart move on his part BTW).

Hell, I was accepted to Lafayette, but didn't go there. Lafayette guys, I think I'm gonna chill on the sideline for next year's Lehigh game. You all down with that? :rolleyes:

I don't think you will make it out of the tailgate area! Anyway, I hope the denial cost him some good money!

[UMass922]

I'm a Red Sox fan (and an Ortiz fan) first and foremost, but I also root for and follow the Twins (I'm half Minnesotan), so I'm happy to see Morneau win the MVP. And with Santana winning the Cy Young and Mauer winning the batting title, that's quite a trifecta for them. However, I also like and admire Jeter and feel he would have been a very deserving MVP.