AGS & SN Poll top GPI in Predictions?

[bluehenbillk]

So much for computers....

The AGS & Sports Network Polls both nailed 7 out of 8 of the at-large teams, the AGS missing on Cal Poly & the Sports Network missing on San Diego.

The GPI finished a distant 3rd only getting 5 out of 8 correct missing on Portland St., Maine & San Diego.

[smallcollegefbfan]

So much for computers....

The AGS & Sports Network Polls both nailed 7 out of 8 of the at-large teams, the AGS missing on Cal Poly & the Sports Network missing on San Diego.

The GPI finished a distant 3rd only getting 5 out of 8 correct missing on Portland St., Maine & San Diego.

I guess the committee does not use any one source totally... SHOCKER THERE LOL.

I think they look at everything but do not let any ONE thing carry more weight.

The GPI is okay but I questioned it a lot this year, sorry Ralph!

You knew it had to be way off when you saw how high USD was! :D

[Maverick]

Congrats to bluehenbillk. After all those years of success from the GPI, he can find two polls that prove him right. Maybe it has more to do with the "tweaking" of the formula that is the GPI than the evil computers that were sent here to make bluehnebillk's life so miserable.

bluehenbillk 1 - GPI 8

[bluehenbillk]

After all those years of success from the GPI,

xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx xidiotx

[Maverick]

Such eloquence!!!

[GannonFan]

Actually, I've been tallying my results versus the GPI for 3 years now in terms of picking the field. We were tied each of the last years, and with only 1 miss for me this year (Mont St rather than Port St) I get the win.

Current tally of GannonFan vs GPI: 1-0-2 in favor of GannonFan. Hey, can I take the title the GPI has as the "top predictor" of the I-AA (FCS) playoff field? :p

[*****]

The GPI and polls are not out yet genius. BTW, six D-I win teams aren't eligible for the playoffs.

[smallcollegefbfan]

The GPI and polls are not out yet genius. BTW, six D-I win teams aren't eligible for the playoffs.

Don't get testy! lol

Everyone knows the GPI is good but it is not perfect and it will never be the most accurate every year. I think anyone could point to a year or two where it has been the most accurate but the GPI is fairly good on a year by year basis. It seems to always be very close. It just has some flaws, just like most things do.

[YoUDeeMan]

The GPI is not out yet genius.

How can a system be a "predictor" of playoff participation when the playoff picks are chosen before the system finishes? :eyebrow:

Hey, I bet I can "predict" all 16 of the playoff selections right now! :eek:

Ralph, when I posted that the committee ignores (you interpret that as you will) the GPI as much as other the polls, you laughed. So, when the next GPI comes out later this week, will the committee then look at that GPI and go back and change it's current selections? xlolx xlolx xlolx xlolx

[*****]

... Everyone knows the GPI is good but it is not perfect and it will never be the most accurate every year...No other has been more accurate than the GPI. I think that this may be the year it gets unseated but the fact is, contrary to what the GPI bashers on this thread say, the season-ending polls and GPI have not been released yet. That was all I was pointing out.

[GannonFan]

The GPI and polls are not out yet genius. BTW, six D-I win teams aren't eligible for the playoffs.

Watch it, Ralph, that sounds like name calling. And will there be tweaks done to the GPI to make it more accurate this year? It's probably real accurate if it takes into account what the committee selected. xlolx

[*****]

... when I posted that the committee ignores (you interpret that as you will) the GPI as much as other the polls, you laughed...That's because I considered the source. xlolx When was the last time you spoke with a committee member? xlolx

[*****]

Watch it, Ralph, that sounds like name calling...:dizzy:

[smallcollegefbfan]

If Ralph is namecalling I am sensing a short-term ban is coming.... :)

Or can Ralph ban himself? lol

Thanks for the show today Ralph. I would rather hear from the chairman of the committee himself than anyone else on selection Sunday. Glad you got him to talk about why they did what they did.

[Cincy App]

The GPI will be out-performed this year. It will have Portland St, San Diego, and N. Iowa in its top 8 eligible at-large teams.

I'm glad the GPI exists as it is another resource for CS Football. It provides more analysis for CS fans. Over the years though, it has not been more accurate than the Sports Network Poll or prognostications by The Sports Network columnists (Matt D, etc.)

[89Hen]

Congrats to bluehenbillk. After all those years of success from the GPI, he can find two polls that prove him right. Maybe it has more to do with the "tweaking" of the formula that is the GPI than the evil computers that were sent here to make bluehnebillk's life so miserable.

bluehenbillk 1 - GPI 8
Guess again Mav. The GPI only outperformed the AGS when the AGS didn't exist. In the first two years of the AGS poll it was tied with the GPI (even though I argue it did better) so the AGS is 1-0-2 vs the GPI. :nod:

[*****]

... Over the years though, it has not been more accurate than the Sports Network Poll...Yes, it has. Including three straight years 1998-2000 when it was perfect.

[*****]

... the AGS is 1-0-2 vs the GPI. Interesting. When was any poll better than the GPI?

[89Hen]

Interesting. When was any poll better than the GPI?
Ask me again on Tuesday.

[*****]

... Thanks for the show today Ralph. I would rather hear from the chairman of the committee himself than anyone else on selection Sunday. Glad you got him to talk about why they did what they did.Yeah, the NCAA called me up to make sure we got first shot at the chairman. That was cool. Too bad Coulson couldn't grill him as well. :)

[*****]

Ask me again on Tuesday.What about right now when you said that a poll was 1-0-2 vs. the GPI? I know the GPI is going to be off this year because of all the 4 loss teams in the field and USD being left out... :nod: However, it will still be the best indicator of at-large selected teams over the longterm. :) That really bugs you computer ranking skeptics doesn't it? BTW, did you ever listen to Massey when he was on WAVES this Fall? Feedback?

[skinny_uncle]

The GPI and polls are not out yet genius. BTW, six D-I win teams aren't eligible for the playoffs.
Hmmmmm.
If I could bring out a poll tomorrow, I could get them all right.
:D

[*****]

Hmmmmm.
If I could bring out a poll tomorrow, I could get them all right.The GPI is a process. The end of the week has to occur before all the data is in from the games. I don't think teams in the polls move up or down based on whether they are chosen for the playoffs (computer systems definetly don't regard it). The fun in the GPI exercise is seeing how close it got to the actual teams selected.

Fun question for those that criticize the GPI... which conferences actually have the previous GPI rank as part of their AQ tiebreaker?

[skinny_uncle]

The GPI is a process. The end of the week has to occur before all the data is in from the games. I don't think teams in the polls move up or down based on whether they are chosen for the playoffs (computer systems definetly don't regard it). The fun in the GPI exercise is seeing how close it got to the actual teams selected.

Fun question for those that criticize the GPI... which conferences actually have the previous GPI rank as part of their AQ tiebreaker?
I am not criticizing the GPI. Just razzing you, Ralph.
:D

[appfan2008]

I think it is bogus that APP is not number in the GPI

[*****]

I am not criticizing the GPI. Just razzing you, Ralph.I know but the only reason I posted in this thread was to say that the polls and GPI have not come out yet.

appfan2008, they could be... we'll know when it comes out. :nod:

[GRZZ]

Is there a link explaining what all the GPI takes into account? Does it take into account polls like the sportsnetwork or others? My question for asking is that if even one of those polls comes out after the selctions, it would skew the final regular season GPI. Ralph, will you shed some light on that for me?

[*****]

Is there a link explaining what all the GPI takes into account? Does it take into account polls like the sportsnetwork or others? My question for asking is that if even one of those polls comes out after the selections, it would skew the final regular season GPI. Ralph, will you shed some light on that for me?You can check out any GPI listing (http://www.i-aa.org/section_front.asp?arttypeid=564) for an explanation of it. The GPI is a set of numbers calculated to produce a rank for each team. It blends polls and various computer rankings in a unique way. Of course the polls and computers have to reflect the games so it comes out after the games are played. I really doubt that teams move up or down based on playoff selection so I think skewing is very minimal.

[bluehenbillk]

I know but the only reason I posted in this thread was to say that the polls and GPI have not come out yet.

appfan2008, they could be... we'll know when it comes out. :nod:

If anything could lack more credibility, it's a poll that comes out AFTER the playoff field has been decided. If that's where you get your historical perspective it just destroys any good (:nono: :nono: )there ever might've been.

I predict the GPI will announce today George Bush received more electoral votes than John Kerry, because of voting machine difficulties in Western Pennsylvania, all computers couldn't validate the outcome. xlolx xlolx

[89Hen]

However, it will still be the best indicator of at-large selected teams over the longterm. :)
:confused: How so? If the AGS is better this year, that would mean the AGS has outperfomed the GPI over three years that the AGS has been in existance.

[walliver]

Yeah, the NCAA called me up to make sure we got first shot at the chairman. That was cool. Too bad Coulson couldn't grill him as well. :)

I listened to the interview, and to be honest, I don't think he really answered any questions. He had a politically correct answer to the USD question - he blamed their exclusion on the two NAIA games (while the real reason is probably the weak D-I schedule:twocents: ) He never actually answered the question about why Furman is travelling to Montana State and several similar questions. I think he needed a little more "grilling".:twocents: At least he did speak to the press. I still believe that the selection process needs to be more open and less secretive.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I listened to the interview, and to be honest, I don't think he really answered any questions. He had a politically correct answer to the USD question - he blamed their exclusion on the two NAIA games (while the real reason is probably the weak D-I schedule:twocents: ) He never actually answered the question about why Furman is travelling to Montana State and several similar questions. I think he needed a little more "grilling".:twocents: At least he did speak to the press. I still believe that the selection process needs to be more open and less secretive.

Quote of the postseason so far. I am very grateful for the opportunity to hear some explanations, but those explanation were weak arguments in my humble opinion. We really need to seed at least the top 8 teams. The least the NCAA can do is give teams that have better records against tougher competition the home games. :twocents:

Some sample questions I may have asked:

Why Furman and not a closer school if geographical pairing is an issue? (The non-conference 1st round matchup answer does not explain WHY Furman was selected)

How large were the bids that won? - NOW THERE'S A GREAT QUESTION!!

In doing the pairings, how important was it to have a TV Game like YSU vs. JMU? How do you justify having a matchup between two top teams in round 1?

Again, if geographical pairings are important why did the committee chose to send UNH to Hampton instead of sending them to YSU.

Do you not think that having the Santos/Ball connection that broke Jerry Rice's record who play for a team that dominated a Big10 Northwestern would bring in better ratings than JMU?

While SOS is important, how close were the little guys (San Diego and Monmouth) from getting in considering the number of 4 loss teams that made the field? (This was kind of answered...)

[GannonFan]

I'm not shocked about the lack of candor from a selection committee guy when it comes to questions like that - just like in basketball, you get some safe sounding PR type answers and that's it - never anything of real substance. I'm not saying he has to provide those answers, but you never really hear someone in that position through out real answers.

[Tribe4SF]

While I don't fault the field on the whole, the pairings boggle the mind. For once Mickey Matthews has something real to bitch about. I agree we need to go to at least 8 seeds. There would still be tough decisions around the 8 spot, but a much simpler, and more transparent process than the current mess. Two 4-loss teams and Hampton getting home games is over the top.

[BestOfBreed]

It's a shame the selection committee doesn't use any of the ranking systems to help make decisions.

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm

[bluehenbillk]

I'm all for seeding the whole tournament again.