NFL players retiring too soon: a disturbing trend?

[bonarae]

In recent years, some of the NFL's young stars tend to retire early for various reasons, mostly health-related. (e.g. John Moffitt, Chris Borland, Rolando McClain)

But is it already a trend? If so, who started it?

[clenz]

I don't know if "trend" is the right word, but I think we will see A LOT more guys retiring between 26-30 than we have before.

Salaries are so high right now that a guy can play 5-6 years, get on the NFL health care plan, and have more than enough money to live (as long as he's smart about it) to do whatever he wants.

It's brilliant by these guys. Borland earned well over a million dollars last year. He's a millionaire at the age of 24 with no debt. His investment opportunities are endless.

[PaladinFan]

I don't know if "trend" is the right word, but I think we will see A LOT more guys retiring between 26-30 than we have before.

Salaries are so high right now that a guy can play 5-6 years, get on the NFL health care plan, and have more than enough money to live (as long as he's smart about it) to do whatever he wants.

It's brilliant by these guys. Borland earned well over a million dollars last year. He's a millionaire at the age of 24 with no debt. His investment opportunities are endless.

I think the "trend" you will see is guys not playing football at all, not necessarily retiring early.

[ngineer]

that could certainly be the case in the not too distant future. The brain is one mysterious organ and injury to it, as opposed to other parts of the body, are irreversible. I think the game changed for the worse when the equipment made major 'advances' so as to allow the helmet to become a weapon rather than a protective device.

[clenz]

I think the "trend" you will see is guys not playing football at all, not necessarily retiring early.
I don't know if that will be a short term trend though. Long term I think we will see more people going to soccer, basketball and honestly rugby (violent sport but no pads so no false bravado about the hits that take place...injuries happen but not nearly the same as football).

Football is king, by far, right now. That won't last forever. At one point baseball was king. Baseball is now a regional sport. I don't know that football will fall as far as baseball has but it will fall back.

I think we will still see very skilled/talented athletes playing football for the rest of time. I believe the trend will be playing until age 27-30ish rather than 32-35. I know the average NFL career is only like 3 years, which puts the average retirement at 25-26. The reason the average is so low is you have guys who don't have what it takes to be an NFL player and bounce around the league from practice squad to practice squad and then retire after their 9th team in 3 or 4 years.

I see a lot of discussions like we had with Barry Sanders coming up in the future. Guys with incredible talent, that could probably dominate the league for a couple more years , that just decide it isn't worth it and they have other interests.

I don't think this comes from just a safety/health standpoint either, though it will play huge for a lot of guys. I think NFL players, and the public in general, have so many more aspirations and interests than they did in the 70s-00s. The internet, social media, advancing of TV, etc... has opened all of America to a much wider range of things to want to do with your life and has brought so many more aspirations for people.

[clenz]

that could certainly be the case in the not too distant future. The brain is one mysterious organ and injury to it, as opposed to other parts of the body, are irreversible. I think the game changed for the worse when the equipment made major 'advances' so as to allow the helmet to become a weapon rather than a protective device.
Yup. Kids hear that this new helmet is "such and such medical term rated" and companies used to use phrases like "prevents concussions/head injuries". It made players feel invincible. Couple that with players getting so big and fast so quickly over the last 15-20 years it was a disaster waiting to happen.

We also need to look at the size of the players. Go back to the 80s and look at player size and speed vs now.

QBs today: 6'2 210-220
QBs in 80s: 6'0 200-205

RBs today: 5'11 220
RBs in 80s: 6'1 200-205

WR today: 6'-6'5 210-225
WR 80s: 5'10-6' 180-190

TE today: 6'4-6'6 250-260
TE in 80s: 6'1-6'3 220-230

OT today: 6'4+ 310-320
OT in 80s: 6'3 275-290

OG today: 6'3 315-330
OG in 80s: 6'2 260-270

I can keep going, but you see the trend. The differences really start to show on the defenses. Now only are the bigger they are MUCH faster and stronger. The impacts these players are facing is amazing.

[PaladinFan]

I don't know if that will be a short term trend though. Long term I think we will see more people going to soccer, basketball and honestly rugby (violent sport but no pads so no false bravado about the hits that take place...injuries happen but not nearly the same as football).

Football is king, by far, right now. That won't last forever. At one point baseball was king. Baseball is now a regional sport. I don't know that football will fall as far as baseball has but it will fall back.

I think we will still see very skilled/talented athletes playing football for the rest of time. I believe the trend will be playing until age 27-30ish rather than 32-35. I know the average NFL career is only like 3 years, which puts the average retirement at 25-26. The reason the average is so low is you have guys who don't have what it takes to be an NFL player and bounce around the league from practice squad to practice squad and then retire after their 9th team in 3 or 4 years.

I see a lot of discussions like we had with Barry Sanders coming up in the future. Guys with incredible talent, that could probably dominate the league for a couple more years , that just decide it isn't worth it and they have other interests.

I don't think this comes from just a safety/health standpoint either, though it will play huge for a lot of guys. I think NFL players, and the public in general, have so many more aspirations and interests than they did in the 70s-00s. The internet, social media, advancing of TV, etc... has opened all of America to a much wider range of things to want to do with your life and has brought so many more aspirations for people.

As an admittedly big baseball fan, I'm interested to know why you consider baseball a "regional" sport. What region?

Baseball will not have the peak popularity of football, and has admittedly declined. However, baseball, by all objective measurements, is remarkably healthy.

For instance, Baseball has a much stronger youth presence than football (Pop Warner participation at its peak is only about 12% of Little League's numbers). MLB's revenue last year was over $8 billion. According to Forbes, that could reach $10 billion in a year or two with continuous growth. That is not a regional sport, in my opinion. That dwarfs every other professional sport but the NFL, and that gap (while significant) is closing.

Baseball has some issues. They are making concerted efforts to bring the game back to the inner cities (where it started) and focus on African Americans, who have largely gravitated to football and basketball over the last 30-40 years.

I think that with the rise of soccer's popularity, baseball's effort to re-engage the African American and inner city communities, and what will be the inevitable decline in football's popularity among youth participants will eventually filter its way up. It will take a while, but I just see that day coming.

[clenz]

Baseball is regional.

The cities that have teams give a damn and revenue is boosted by local TV deals.
Nationally, baseball is a DISTANT 3rd of the NFL and NBA.

There's a reason there is about as many national baseball games in a week as there is college basketball games on ESPN on a Monday or Tuesday night. It plays REALLY well in St. Louis, NYC, Boston, San Francisco, etc... It doesn't work so well in Sacramento, Des Moines, Nebraska, Kansas (outside of the KC metro), any of Florida, etc...

One look at attendance numbers - even weekend games - will tell you that.

[walliver]

The "early" retirements are frequently blamed on concussion awareness, but I wonder if these players really quit just because they've lost their love of the game.

Long term, I think football as a participation sport is in decline. More and more young people are choosing soccer or lacrosse (or more likely having them chosen for them by their parents). At the NFL level, these are modern day gladiators being paid handsomely. The P5 programs can function as the minor leagues. Long term, I wonder how many smaller (less rich) programs will be able to afford the liability

[bonarae]

The "early" retirements are frequently blamed on concussion awareness, but I wonder if these players really quit just because they've lost their love of the game.

Long term, I think football as a participation sport is in decline. More and more young people are choosing soccer or lacrosse (or more likely having them chosen for them by their parents). At the NFL level, these are modern day gladiators being paid handsomely. The P5 programs can function as the minor leagues. Long term, I wonder how many smaller (less rich) programs will be able to afford the liability

First paragraph: John Moffitt fits the criteria of the "lost their love of the game". He posted some tweets upon his retirement that defined it.

Second paragraph: Lacrosse is still a regional sport as far as participation is concerned; how many states are relevant in lacrosse? Few. Last sentence: I'm worried for the smaller programs (read: D-3, NAIA) moving forward.

[dgtw]

There will be a lot of parents who simply don't sign their kids up for youth football. That eliminates a lot of participation before it even starts. My son played a couple times but never really got into it. He loved baseball and was pretty good at it but eventually settled on wrestling.

I never told him not to play football but never really pushed it but was glad he settled on wrestling. His high school football team went 0-10 this season and his wrestling team won the state championship.

I have no problem with someone playing a year or two in the NFL and then hanging it up. Earl Campbell was one of the greatest running backs ever and can no longer walk. A player today can make more in a couple years than Campbell made in his career.

[ngineer]

Lacrosse is the fastest growing sport in high school nationwide. Equipment much cheaper, still provided the interest in a 'contact' sport with a lot of speed and movement, but it is not a 'collision sport'.

[Bisonoline]

I don't find the trend disturbing at all. As a matter of fact I think players are realizing they can make their money and get out.

[tribe_pride]

Lacrosse is the fastest growing sport in high school nationwide. Equipment much cheaper, still provided the interest in a 'contact' sport with a lot of speed and movement, but it is not a 'collision sport'.

Fastest growing can be a very deceptive word. If you have 1 person doing something 1 year and 2 the next year and then 4 the following year, you are doubling the amount of people who participate every year but established events will not be able to double.

That said, lacrosse is growing rapidly but it still is mostly a regional sport. Fewer than half of the states offer lacrosse as 24 states and D.C. offer boys lacrosse and 8 of those states have fewer than 50 schools participating (Arkansas has only 1). For girls the numbers are 24 plus DC with 7 of those states having fewer than 50 schools participating http://www.nfhs.org/ParticipationStatics/PDF/2013-14_Participation_Survey_PDF.pdf - go to page 7 and 14.

For individuals, it is the 11th most popular boys hs sport and 10th most popular girls while teams participating it is 12th and 13th for girls

[Hammerhead]

Robert Smith retired after leading the NFC in rushing yards during his 8th season in 2000. He decided he we would rather have some mobility in his old age and probably knew he had other career options after football.