TSN playoff predictions

[OL FU]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/extrapoint.htm


No one should be surprised that the 106th edition of Montana State and Montana’s rivalry plays a huge role in the playoff race on the season’s final weekend.



Automatic Bids: Patriot: Lehigh, A10: Massachusetts, Big Sky: Montana, Southland: McNeese State, Southern: Appalachian State, Gateway: Youngstown State, MEAC: Hampton, OVC: UT-Martin.

At-large: Coastal Carolina, Eastern Illinois, Furman, James Madison, Illinois State, New Hampshire, Portland State, Southern Illinois.

Seeds: Appalachian State, Montana, Massachusetts, Youngstown State.

Bracket I: Coastal Carolina at No. 1 Appalachian State; Hampton at James Madison; Eastern Illinois at No. 4 Youngstown State; New Hampshire at Furman.
Bracket II: McNeese State at No. 2 Montana; Portland State at Southern Illinois; Lehigh at No. 3 Massachusetts; UT-Martin at Illinois State.
UNH is a running team, right:eyebrow: :eek: :bawling:

[blukeys]

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/extrapoint.htm





UNH is a running team, right:eyebrow: :eek: :bawling:


Sure Ricky Santos can run all over the place when his receivers are covered. ;) ;)

[OL FU]

Sure Ricky Santos can run all over the place when his receivers are covered. ;) ;)

Great, the two things we do best, stopping the pass and then stopping the QB when the pass is stopped:rolleyes:

Oh well we're in:hurray:

[AppGuy04]

Felton can run over anybody, and the UNH D can't stop anybody

[birdsflyhigh]

Not sure what numbers TSN is looking at when putting EIU at #16. And they say if UNI beats IL St., they will need alot of help from other teams.
I only see 2 instances of that .. Montana beats MSU and JMU beats Townson.

The numbers work up I did (involving DSU, EIU, Monmouth, MSU, UNI, PSU, Townson, USD and Wofford) yielded some interesting findings. Assuming UNI wins and Townson loses, then I got an average GPI win ranking going this way:

1)UNI 41.43
2)MSU 45.7
3)PSU 52.00
4)Townson 53.28
5)Wofford 59.43
6)EIU 75.87
7)Monmouth 87.5
8)Delaware St. 89.62
9)USD 94.25

Not sure why TSN is giving EIU so much credit when their average GPI win is WAY below five other teams. Are the EIU Panthers being given credit for getting absolutely pasted by 2 DI-A teams ( a decent Hawaii team and a god-awful Illnois team)? Well, if you want to look at it that way, then UNI should be getting plenty of credit for their 1 point loss to I-A Iowa St.

Thank goodness that TSN is NOT the actual playoff selection committee.:eek:

[OL FU]

Felton can run over anybody, and the UNH D can't stop anybody

I guess it would be a matter of what tires first. Felton and Gipson's legs or Santos arm:)

[GannonFan]

Thank goodness that TSN is NOT the actual playoff selection committee.:eek:

Or good thing the GPI isn't the actual playoff selection committee. I'd be kinda dismayed if UNI got in and say PSU didn't, as you would indicate should be the case with your analysis.

[birdsflyhigh]

Gannon, guess we have VERY different opinions as to the relative quality of UNI and PSU. IMO PSU has been getting lots of prop up this entire season because they played 3 DI-A teams. PSU beat a mediocre New Mexico team and were ripped to shreads and stomped on by both Oregon and California. Put UNI against Oregon and California, and I'm pretty sure the Panthers would have fared at least as well (if not better) than PSU did.

Just look at the wins straight up, and UNI has a better resume. But I know you've got this big thing against the GPI. :(

[bcrawf]

I am really starting to believe that UNI is the #1 7-4 team with a win. I think a win gives us better than 50-50 odds of getting in.

[GannonFan]

Gannon, guess we have VERY different opinions as to the relative quality of UNI and PSU. IMO PSU has been getting lots of prop up this entire season because they played 3 DI-A teams. PSU beat a mediocre New Mexico team and were ripped to shreads and stomped on by both Oregon and California. Put UNI against Oregon and California, and I'm pretty sure the Panthers would have fared at least as well (if not better) than PSU did.

Just look at the wins straight up, and UNI has a better resume. But I know you've got this big thing against the GPI. :(

Nah, I'm just in the realist camp and despite all the numbers, the big one that will stick out, should Montana St lose to Montana, is that the Big Sky would have 1 team in and the Gateway 3 - while there is no written guideline to discuss this, I think it's highly more likely to have a second Big Sky team rather than a 4th Gateway team. Again, it's not statistical but I think certainly more realistic and probable.

[birdsflyhigh]

If you want to think of it that way Gannon, then I can see your reasoning.
I'm certain though that the selection committee looks at each team on an individual basis REGARDLESS of which conference they happen to play in. I'd say a 7-4 UNI team has got a pretty decent shot right now. :twocents:

[HensRock]

Just look at the wins straight up, and UNI has a better resume. But I know you've got this big thing against the GPI. :(

PSU's schedule has 5 games against teams that have been ranked in the AGS Top 25 at some point or other during the season, plus 3 I-A teams including a I-A win.

UNI schedule includes 5 games against AGS Top 25, plus 1 I-A loss, plus 1 Div-II loss.

Yeah, much more impressive resume. :rolleyes:

[birdsflyhigh]

HensRock, I've broken down the numbers on a different thread....the one titiled comparing EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU. UNI has a HIGHER GPI average win than PSU. In fact, it's quite a bit higher.

Once again, it's put out there that PSU played 3 I-A schools. Mother of mercy, they were steamrolled by an average of 36 points in 2 of those games. I'd say PSU's "big" win over New Mexico would not rate much higher than UNI's 1 point loss to I-A Iowa St....so it's a wash there.

So it comes down to PSU being blown off the field against 2 I-A foes. I think almost every school in I-AA could accomplish that great feat. :eek:

[HensRock]

HensRock, I've broken down the numbers on a different thread....the one titiled comparing EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU. UNI has a HIGHER GPI average win than PSU. In fact, it's quite a bit higher.

Once again, it's put out there that PSU played 3 I-A schools. Mother of mercy, they were steamrolled by an average of 36 points in 2 of those games. I'd say PSU's "big" win over New Mexico would not rate much higher than UNI's 1 point loss to I-A Iowa St....so it's a wash there.

So it comes down to PSU being blown off the field against 2 I-A foes. I think almost every school in I-AA could accomplish that great feat. :eek:


OK. PSU win over NM State is a wash with UNI's 1 point loss to Iowa State. And PSU's 5 Top 25 opponents are a "wash" with UNI's 5.

That leaves us with PSU's 2 I-A losses up against UNI's D-II Loss and their "big win" over Drake. :rolleyes:

(And let's not forget. UNI is not 7-4 yet. )

[birdsflyhigh]

Did you even look at the UNI schedule? UNI does NOT even play Drake.

Yes, I'm aware that UNI is not 7-4 yet. I'm merely stating that a 7-4 UNI team IMO has the edge over a 7-4 PSU team.

So what you're saying is that instead of UNI losing by a couple points at home to N. Dakota, they should have scheduled a DI-A game, so they could get blown out by 36 points and get big credit for it at the end of the season. What the hell?

[AppGuy04]

UNI will not get in. One reason:

Sat, Sep 9 North Dakota L 31-35

and thats assuming they win this weekend, which I don't think they will

[Peems]

Gannon, guess we have VERY different opinions as to the relative quality of UNI and PSU. IMO PSU has been getting lots of prop up this entire season because they played 3 DI-A teams. PSU beat a mediocre New Mexico team and were ripped to shreads and stomped on by both Oregon and California. Put UNI against Oregon and California, and I'm pretty sure the Panthers would have fared at least as well (if not better) than PSU did.

Just look at the wins straight up, and UNI has a better resume. But I know you've got this big thing against the GPI. :(

good speculation. especially considering they lost to a D II. you can't speculate how well one team would have done. you have to look at what happened. and what happened is that UNI lost to a D2. PSU lost to two good 1-A teams and beat an okay one.

[UMass922]

UNI, with a win Saturday (and of course we all recognize that that's a very big 'if'), will have wins over YSU and ISU--those are two huge, quality wins with which PSU simply has nothing to compare. UNI may have an early-season D-II loss, but it would also have beaten the two best I-AA teams on its schedule (and top-ten I-AA teams at that). PSU, meanwhile, though it has an early-season I-A win, also lost to the two best I-AA teams on its schedule (and was shut out by one of them to boot).

Obviously some of us just have different philosophies about this. Personally, I'll take the team with a couple bad losses, but also a couple great wins, over the team with no bad losses but no great wins either. I simply feel that UNI, with a win on Saturday, will have offered more evidence that it can beat top-tier I-AA teams.

It should go without saying, of course, that in most years neither of these teams would be playoff-worthy. But since the committee is almost certainly going to have to take a seven-win/four-loss team, UNI seems to me to be the most deserving (at least in a head-to-head comparison with PSU).

[birdsflyhigh]

Peems, my speculation is that literally the top third of I-AA teams (including UNI) would line up at least as well (36 point average loss) against PSU's better I-A foes. I would not say that's much of a stretch. Don't see too many folks on here touting Montana's thrashing at the hands of I-A Iowa as a great thing. So why does PSU get big love for their I-A thrashings?:confused:

[UMass922]

Don't see too many folks on here touting Montana's thrashing at the hands of I-A Iowa as a great thing. So why does PSU get big love for their I-A thrashings?:confused:

Agreed; I'm a bit mystified by how PSU gets praise for losing to Cal 42-16 and Oregon 55-12. While you can't blame PSU for such losses (I would expect pretty much any I-AA team--good, bad, or mediocre--to lose to those teams by such margins), you can't exactly give them credit for them either. Those games tell me absolutely nothing about how PSU stacks up against top I-AA teams. The only thing a team accomplishes by scheduling two unwinnable I-A games (or, conversely, two unloseable sub- D-I games--see San Diego, of course) is to greatly reduce the size of its body of work against I-AA, and thus greatly reduce its margin for error. PSU won it's one winnable I-A game, but failed its two most crucial I-AA tests (losing to Montana and Montana State--the latter in a shutout).

Again, losing big to Cal and Oregon tells me absolutely nothing about how good a I-AA team PSU is, because I would expect every I-AA team to lose big to Cal and Oregon. All I care about is how PSU fared against the top I-AA teams on its schedule--and it lost to both of those teams.

[TSU84returntoglory]

Montana beats MSU and JMU beats Townson.

The numbers work up I did (involving DSU, EIU, Monmouth, MSU, UNI, PSU, Townson, USD and Wofford) yielded some interesting findings. Assuming UNI wins and Townson loses, then I got an average GPI win ranking going this way:

1)UNI 41.43
2)MSU 45.7
3)PSU 52.00
4)Townson 53.28

:nono:

Once is a typo, twice is an error, three times is clueless. Fight on TOWSON

[birdsflyhigh]

Thanks for catching me on that. Man, I would have been putting down townson instead of TOWSON forever, but I won't be doing that again. Sorry about that man.:)

[PaladinFan]

New Hampshire at Furman would be a ton of fun, I think. I'd like to see Santos and Ball. I'd also like to see what a healthy Jerome Felton does to that defense. They ain't never seen something like him.

[Mr. C]

I am really starting to believe that UNI is the #1 7-4 team with a win. I think a win gives us better than 50-50 odds of getting in.
Don't get your hopes up. If a 7-4 team gets in, it will be Portland State (that's what the folks that are most in the know around I-AA have been hinting at). Northern Iowa chances of getting in are almost as bad as San Diego's (not smacking, just letting you know the truth). Those losses to North Dakota and Western Illinois really hurt.

[jmuroller]

7-4 will never get in as the 4th team from a conference unless there is not another 8-3 team in the nation. Period, point, end of discussion.

[Mr. C]

7-4 will never get in as the 4th team from a conference unless there is not another 8-3 team in the nation. Period, point, end of discussion.
You pretty much said it. Just like a non-scholarship team that goes 8-0 against I-AA teams and plays a rotten strength of schedule isn't going to get in either.

[UMass922]

Don't get your hopes up. If a 7-4 team gets in, it will be Portland State (that's what the folks that are most in the know around I-AA have been hinting at). Northern Iowa chances of getting in are almost as bad as San Diego's (not smacking, just letting you know the truth). Those losses to North Dakota and Western Illinois really hurt.

I just find it interesting that when comparing a (hypothetical) 7-4 UNI with a 7-4 PSU, everyone makes PSU's case by emphasizing the key losses (UNI to North Dakota and Western Illinois, PSU to Cal and Oregon), while ignoring the key wins: the 7-4 UNI team would have wins over the two best I-AA teams it played (Youngstown State and Illinois State--both top-ten teams), while PSU would have zero marquee I-AA wins to go with its early-season win over I-A New Mexico (PSU lost to the two best I-AA teams on its schedule, Montana and Montana State; its best I-AA win is probably over Northern Arizona). As I see it, UNI will have supplied much more evidence that it is capable of beating championship-caliber I-AA teams--and that certainly ought to be the primary factor the committee considers in determining "the best teams available on a national at-large basis."

If the committee really does follow an unwritten rule that it will not take a seven-win/four-loss team as the fourth team from a conference, then so be it--but they're absolutely wrong to do so. If UNI beats ISU on Saturday, they should absolutely be ahead of PSU in the pecking order, and if PSU is subsequently awarded a bid while UNI is not, the Panthers will have been "woofed" as far as I'm concerned.

[rcny46]

I think UMass922 makes a logical and valid point in the case of UNI. :twocents:

[rcny46]

New Hampshire at Furman would be a ton of fun, I think. I'd like to see Santos and Ball. I'd also like to see what a healthy Jerome Felton does to that defense. They ain't never seen something like him.

A local sportswriter who covers UNH sports speculated today that should they win on saturday,they could end up in Normal,Ill. against ISU.I don't care where they go,as long as they make the field of 16.It might be nice if they could avoid Youngstown though-that team would worry me more than any other.

[Chucktown]

but if EIU wins this weekend, they will have 8 D1 wins. UNI 7

[UMass922]

but if EIU wins this weekend, they will have 8 D1 wins. UNI 7

Correct. I feel EIU should be in with a win, ahead of both UNI and PSU. I'm just comparing the resumes of the latter two teams.

[birdsflyhigh]

Sure, EIU will have 8 wins, but they will be against against teams that would average a 75.87 GPI rating. That's horrible and there isn't any way of getting around that. UNI's GPI average win would be at 41.43 and PSU's average GPI win would be 10.57 worse than that at 52.00.

EIU's average GPI win is not even in the ball park of EITHER UNI or PSU. Plus the Panthers lost the game that they HAD to win against Tenn-Martin.
The OVC wasn't exactly loaded with good teams this year. IMO EIU would be behind UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson and Wofford in the playoff pecking order. So what they've got an extra win against a weak OVC schedule. That's only because EIU played 12 games while the other teams I've mentioned played 11 games.

I'd put money on any of those teams (UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson, Wofford) being able to pick up a win against ANY of the OVC teams. Who has EIU beaten this year that is playoff calibur? NO ONE!

[UMass922]

Sure, EIU will have 8 wins, but they will be against against teams that would average a 75.87 GPI rating. That's horrible and there isn't any way of getting around that. UNI's GPI average win would be at 41.43 and PSU's average GPI win would be 10.57 worse than that at 52.00.

EIU's average GPI win is not even in the ball park of EITHER UNI or PSU. Plus the Panthers lost the game that they HAD to win against Tenn-Martin.
The OVC wasn't exactly loaded with good teams this year. IMO EIU would be behind UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson and Wofford in the playoff pecking order. So what they've got an extra win against a weak OVC schedule. That's only because EIU played 12 games while the other teams I've mentioned played 11 games.

I'd put money on any of those teams (UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson, Wofford) being able to pick up a win against ANY of the OVC teams. Who has EIU beaten this year that is playoff calibur? NO ONE!

I understand what you're saying, and if EIU were a 7-win team they'd be at a serious disadvantage against a team like UNI, but I think in a year like this, their 8-2 record against I-AA auto-bid-conference teams (with their other two games coming against I-As) should be enough to get them in. EIU does lack in the quality-win department, true (lost to Illinois State and Tennessee-Martin, their best chances for one), and in that respect I'll put them on about the same level as Portland State. But I think the simple fact that they'll have that crucial eighth win (if they beat Jacksonville State on Saturday, that is) will be enough to get them over the hump. Their SOS isn't spectacular, but at least it's not in San Diego territory, nor even in Delaware State territory. At a certain point, the raw number of wins does have to count for something; if we wanted to, I'm sure we could do some hunting and find some six- or perhaps even five-win teams that have stronger schedules and more evidence of big-win potential than some of the seven- and eight-win teams we're discussing (a team like Maine could fit this bill). Again, in a year like this when there's a paucity of obviously-qualified at-large teams, I think eight wins against a full D-I auto-bid schedule without an absolutely horrible SOS is enough to get you in, and EIU fits that bill.

[Tribe4SF]

Important to recognize that if EIU beats Jax State, they will finish 8-2 against I-AA, with both losses coming on the road against playoff teams. While they may be short on quality wins, the 8-2 will stand out. UNI has a couple of good wins, but there's no denying home losses to North Dakota and Western Illinois. Of course the Panthers have to beat Ill. St. to even get discussed.

[HensRock]

Did you even look at the UNI schedule? UNI does NOT even play Drake.

Yes, I'm aware that UNI is not 7-4 yet. I'm merely stating that a 7-4 UNI team IMO has the edge over a 7-4 PSU team.

So what you're saying is that instead of UNI losing by a couple points at home to N. Dakota, they should have scheduled a DI-A game, so they could get blown out by 36 points and get big credit for it at the end of the season. What the hell?


No they should schedule Drake and beat them 48-7, that will prove something! Are we talking about the same UNI team? I'm talking about Northern Iowa. The one that played DRAKE in week 1.

[Catbooster]

It's interesting to me that Montana State isn't considered in many of these discussions. Birdsflyhigh's analysis shows them to be right in the middle of UNI and PSU. MSU has also played 6 I-AA teams that have been ranked in the top 25 this season, more than UNI or PSU, IIRC. They have the same disadvantage as UNI of having lost to a DII (who have a bye in the DII playoffs); the same advantage as PSU of having beat a I-A (better conference, worse record); they shut-out PSU when they played them.

Maybe the biggest reason I think they deserve as much consideration as the other two is that they haven't lost a game since September 23. They started the season with a lot of new players and a few injuries, but once they got the pieces in place, they have been on a roll (of course, to drop to 7-4 they will have to lose their game against the grizzlies, but that will be to the #2 or 3 team in the nation and it seems most people agree that the game will be close). Shouldn't the games in the latter part of the season have more influence than the first month?

It just seems odd that PSU gets so much SOS credit for two bad losses to I-A teams. If San Diego lost miserably to two I-A's and kept the rest of their lousy schedule would that make everyone happy because they upped their SOS?

It's an odd year. I think it is quite likely that the committee will have to look at 7-4 teams, but I really don't think any of them "deserve" a shot at the playoffs (nor do I think teams with more wins but lousy SOS deserve it). Unless something really odd happens, I don't think any bubble team can claim they were wooffed. The ones who make it to the playoffs should just consider themselves lucky.

Anyway, it's a moot point for my team, since MSU will be beating UM and removing themselves from the debate :smiley_wi

[th0m]

Did you even look at the UNI schedule? UNI does NOT even play Drake.

Did YOU even look at the UNI schedule???

8/31/06 at Drake
(Scheel's Kick-Off Classic) TV Des Moines, Iowa W, 48-7

[Chucktown]

Sure, EIU will have 8 wins, but they will be against against teams that would average a 75.87 GPI rating. That's horrible and there isn't any way of getting around that. UNI's GPI average win would be at 41.43 and PSU's average GPI win would be 10.57 worse than that at 52.00.

EIU's average GPI win is not even in the ball park of EITHER UNI or PSU. Plus the Panthers lost the game that they HAD to win against Tenn-Martin.
The OVC wasn't exactly loaded with good teams this year. IMO EIU would be behind UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson and Wofford in the playoff pecking order. So what they've got an extra win against a weak OVC schedule. That's only because EIU played 12 games while the other teams I've mentioned played 11 games.

I'd put money on any of those teams (UNI, MSU, PSU, Towson, Wofford) being able to pick up a win against ANY of the OVC teams. Who has EIU beaten this year that is playoff calibur? NO ONE!

EIU having 8 wins has absolutely nothing to do with having 12 games. That 12th game was hawaii, which they did not win. So if they only had 11 like everyone else, they would be 8-3, while being 8-2 against 1AA. So they still have 8 1AA wins. Which is more than UNI. (who also lost to a D2 school, who might be at the top of their division, but it is a superior division, and they scheduled them. So blame them)

[crunifan]

Wow, we are causing quite the little comotion on here and we didn't even say something stupid. xlolx

Hopefully we have a chance to beat Illinois State. All I know is the vibe here on campus has already switched to basketball. We open our brand new 26 million dollar arena two hours before kickoff in a big ceremony. Plus, I just don't see a big turnout. Hopefully I am wrong, because I love the way some of you are thinking.

It's nice to see some people think UNI is actually a decent time after such a disappointing season for us...