Should Roberson have downed it at the 1 yard line?

[bainsey]

As ISU's Tre Roberson was running away to score the lead-taking touchdown inside of two minutes remaining (1:38, to be exact), I was thinking, down it at one yard line! Of course, we all know what happened after that.

I know the old adage, "Never take points off the board." Sometimes, I don't think it applies. I believe there are times when ball and/or clock control is more important. Keep the ball, chew up some clock, pound it in if you can, or take the easy last-second field goal for the win.

Sure, it would be unorthodox, but ask the Redbirds now whether they'd do something unorthodox to take the national title.

[BisonFan02]

but how many people are thinking that while in the heat of the moment? Not many...

[Bisonator]

No way. A FG is not guaranteed. Their defense had held us to FG's.

[Scooter]

but how many people are thinking that while in the heat of the moment? Not many...


You score a TD when you have the chance. Running out of bounds is no guarantee of a score later... and NDSU had three time outs.

[Catsfan90]

No way. A FG is not guaranteed. Their defense had held us to FG's.
This. Kicker could have shanked it. ISU defense should have held.

[BisonLurker]

I was thinking he needs to down it at the 1 or 2 the whole way... But after he scored and more thinking you just can't risk it. You take the 6 and trust your team to play defense.

[Mr. C]

As ISU's Tre Roberson was running away to score the lead-taking touchdown inside of two minutes remaining (1:38, to be exact), I was thinking, down it at one yard line! Of course, we all know what happened after that. I know the old adage, "Never take points off the board." Sometimes, I don't think it applies. I believe there are times when ball and/or clock control is more important. Keep the ball, chew up some clock, pound it in if you can, or take the easy last-second field goal for the win. Sure, it would be unorthodox, but ask the Redbirds now whether they'd do something unorthodox to take the national title.Unorthodox thinking, but Illinois State probably would have won the national championship doing that.

[Sycamore62]

I'm not sure, how many timeouts did NDSU have at that point. You could have ran :25 off on 1st down and still tried to score a td for 3 plays

[ISUMatt]

They had all 3. Game came down to we needed our defense to make a stop and it didn't happen. Great game


ISUMatt

[REALBird]

They had all 3. Game came down to we needed our defense to make a stop and it didn't happen. Great game


ISUMatt

Agreed. The botched 2nd half kickoff did it. We gifted 3 pts in a game where every one counted.

Take nothing away NDSU showed why they're 4 time champions.

[ngineer]

You have to score the TD. Nothing is given that if you down it you don't score. Fumbles, get sacked, screwed up FG attempt...we saw a bunch of that today. You have to believe your defense is not going to give up six with that little time left.

[Laker]

Score when you can. Reasons have been posted above about fumbles, penalties, bad snaps, botched holds, shanked kicks.

NDSU had to go the length of the field and score a TD by passing, not grinding them out. Sometimes you just have to tip your cap and say we did everything that we could, they just came through when they had to.

[DJKyR0]

I think it's a novel concept but you have to take the points there - who knows what happens on those clock-killing plays (i.e. fumble or something) or if that kick gets blocked (or missed). Too much can go wrong to outweigh keeping yourself at a score deficit, I think. If the game is tied I think that makes it a different story but if you're trailing you have to take the points as they come.

[PantherRob82]

Should have stopped them from driving 80 yards. Can't second guess that.

both teams had plenty of missed opportunities.

[Catsfan90]

20/20 is always hindsight on any game, but in the heat of the moment you have to go with your gut. I agree with everone else. It was entirely on the defense to hold that last drive. The offense has one job, and that is to score points. The coaches and everyone else need to worry about how the game is being ran. If they wanted him to down it, they would have told him "hey, if you are on a breakaway run do not score" but obviously they did not. That was entirely on the defensive coordinator for his play selections.

[semobison]

It is all about the situation on that play. The Redbirds were 58 yards out and when the Red Sea opened up like it did for Roberson you just run like hell. It would have been a different situation if they had been in the red zone trailing by two with a minute and a half left. That kind of thinking about scoring too early MIGHT have come into play. When you havn't even crossed midfield all you are thinking about is trying to score not when we should score.

[DFW HOYA]

You score the points every time. Imagine the response if he had taken a knee at the one and ISU fumbles on the next play, or settles for a field goal instead and loses the game as a result.

[Go Green]

As ISU's Tre Roberson was running away to score the lead-taking touchdown inside of two minutes remaining (1:38, to be exact), I was thinking, down it at one yard line! Of course, we all know what happened after that.

I know the old adage, "Never take points off the board." Sometimes, I don't think it applies. I believe there are times when ball and/or clock control is more important. Keep the ball, chew up some clock, pound it in if you can, or take the easy last-second field goal for the win.

Sure, it would be unorthodox, but ask the Redbirds now whether they'd do something unorthodox to take the national title.

Can you think of an example where someone actually did that with success?

I can't. At most, I've seen guys stop at the one-yard line or run parallel to the goal line (i.e., north-south) for a few seconds until the defender catches up. But they always jump across the goal line for the touchdown at the last moment. They never take a knee or run out of bounds.

[blueballs]

NO. You score, take the lead, and trust your special team and defensive teammates to hold the lead for you.

There are too many things that can go wrong if you don't score, namely penalties, turnovers, missed or blocked kicks.

[dewey]

You have to score the TD. Nothing is given that if you down it you don't score. Fumbles, get sacked, screwed up FG attempt...we saw a bunch of that today. You have to believe your defense is not going to give up six with that little time left.

Exactly! Imagine the post game conference for a coach that told his player if he breaks it to go out at the 1 and they fumble, miss the field goal or the kick gets blocked. It would have been called the dumbest coaching move ever.

Like others have said ISU had the lead and needed to make a stop.

Dewey

[TennBison]

Can you think of an example where someone actually did that with success?

I can't. At most, I've seen guys stop at the one-yard line or run parallel to the goal line (i.e., north-south) for a few seconds until the defender catches up. But they always jump across the goal line for the touchdown at the last moment. They never take a knee or run out of bounds.
It has been done in the pros twice, the Eagles and either the Titans or Tampa that I know of and they both worked. Both were done about 6-7 years ago. I have not seen it done since. I was at the Eagles game when they did it against the Cowboys.
Ok, I found the link but it was a different scenario and the Eagles had the lead and did it to prevent a comeback by running out the clock. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3158572
However, the other game was a similar setup like yesterday for sure and was done successfully, it was the QB who took a knee/downed himself. But I can't find a article about it.
I am not defending it and I myself say take the points if you can score.

[Bison56]

No even though it was a high probability that they would have scored it's the chance of a penalty, bad snap, fumble, etc... You take the points. With the lead yes it would have been 100% correct thing to do.

[UNH Fanboi]

You have to score the TD. Nothing is given that if you down it you don't score. Fumbles, get sacked, screwed up FG attempt...we saw a bunch of that today. You have to believe your defense is not going to give up six with that little time left. That's overly simplistic thinking. What's greater, the probability of a missed XP, or the probability of the other team driving ~80 yards in a 1:40? The reason that taking a knee was probably not the right play was the fact that NDSU had 3 timeouts left, so all stalling would have done is burned NDSU's timeouts. If NDSU had no timeouts left, taking a knee at the 1 would 100% be the right play.

[UNH Fanboi]

Exactly! Imagine the post game conference for a coach that told his player if he breaks it to go out at the 1 and they fumble, miss the field goal or the kick gets blocked. It would have been called the dumbest coaching move ever. Like others have said ISU had the lead and needed to make a stop. Dewey We're talking about the right play, not the play that would be least likely to get criticized after the fact. The media and most fans don't understand statistics and prefer seemingly "safe" strategies that are less likely to win over seemingly "risky" strategies that are more likely to win.

[UNH Fanboi]

NO. You score, take the lead, and trust your special team and defensive teammates to hold the lead for you. There are too many things that can go wrong if you don't score, namely penalties, turnovers, missed or blocked kicks. You're at the 1 yd line--you just have to do the victory formation three times and kick an XP. The probability of a fumble or penalty is miniscule, and even if there is a penalty, you still have a short FG.

[UNH Fanboi]

It is all about the situation on that play. The Redbirds were 58 yards out and when the Red Sea opened up like it did for Roberson you just run like hell. It would have been a different situation if they had been in the red zone trailing by two with a minute and a half left. That kind of thinking about scoring too early MIGHT have come into play. When you havn't even crossed midfield all you are thinking about is trying to score not when we should score. I agree that given the situation there's no way that Roberson or the coaches could have been expected to even think about taking a knee.

[blueballs]

You're at the 1 yd line--you just have to do the victory formation three times and kick an XP. The probability of a fumble or penalty is miniscule, and even if there is a penalty, you still have a short FG.

Ask any Georgia Southern person how that works out.... a dropped snap on the opponents one yard line cost them a win at NC State in September.

[UNH Fanboi]

Ask any Georgia Southern person how that works out.... a dropped snap on the opponents one yard line cost them a win at NC State in September. So what? That's just an anecdote from a single game. Probabilities are what matter, not anecdotes, conventional wisdom, what talking heads will say, etc. Let's assume for the sake of argument that NDSU had no timeouts and thus ISU could have kicked a FG as time expired. What do you estimate as the probability of:

1) ISU turning the ball over on three straight QB kneel-downs or missing a ~20 yd FG

2) NDSU scoring a TD after receiving the ball on a kickoff with 1:40 remaining

[PantherRob82]

So what? That's just an anecdote from a single game. Probabilities are what matter, not anecdotes, conventional wisdom, what talking heads will say, etc. Let's assume for the sake of argument that NDSU had no timeouts and thus ISU could have kicked a FG as time expired. What do you estimate as the probability of:

1) ISU turning the ball over on three straight QB kneel-downs or missing a ~20 yd FG

2) NDSU scoring a TD after receiving the ball on a kickoff with 1:40 remaining

But for the sake of arguement, they had timeouts, so having one of your premises involving them having no timeouts seems silly.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

And UNH has lost two playoff games at Montana State because they failed to kick an extra point!!! And look at how many PAT kicks UNH has missed in the past couple of seasons!! Fanboi, you would be livid if UNH ever passed up a TD to kill clock then rely on a short FG to be made!!!

[Catsfan90]

And UNH has lost two playoff games at Montana State because they failed to kick an extra point!!! And look at how many PAT kicks UNH has missed in the past couple of seasons!! Fanboi, you would be livid if UNH ever passed up a TD to kill clock then rely on a short FG to be made!!!
Maybe that's why I can't even imagine downing it, and relying on the kick instead of the sure points. As a UNH fan I have seen too many games slip away due to missed kicks. I couldn't ever imagine relying solely on the kicking game unless I absolutely had no other choice.

[UNH Fanboi]

And UNH has lost two playoff games at Montana State because they failed to kick an extra point!!! And look at how many PAT kicks UNH has missed in the past couple of seasons!! Fanboi, you would be livid if UNH ever passed up a TD to kill clock then rely on a short FG to be made!!!

With our kicker I would never do it. With an NFL caliber kicker, definitely. With a good college kicker, maybe. The point is, there are situations where it is correct. Saying stuff "What if you miss the kick!?" is obvious and contributes nothing to the conversation. Why are people so devastated by the possibility of losing on a missed kick, but have no problem losing to the other team scoring a TD with the time left? I would want my team to go with the play that has the highest probability of winning the game.

[ngineer]

It has been done in the pros twice, the Eagles and either the Titans or Tampa that I know of and they both worked. Both were done about 6-7 years ago. I have not seen it done since. I was at the Eagles game when they did it against the Cowboys.
Ok, I found the link but it was a different scenario and the Eagles had the lead and did it to prevent a comeback by running out the clock. http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3158572
However, the other game was a similar setup like yesterday for sure and was done successfully, it was the QB who took a knee/downed himself. But I can't find a article about it.
I am not defending it and I myself say take the points if you can score.

In the Eagles game, the Eagles were winning, so just needed to run out clock. ISU had to score.

[Gil Dobie]

Should the Dback have grabbed Urzendowski for a 15 yard penalty, instead of allowing the opportunity for the catch?

On another message board, they are claiming offensive pass interference on Urzendowski.

[Bisonator]

Should the Dback have grabbed Urzendowski for a 15 yard penalty, instead of allowing the opportunity for the catch?

On another message board, they are claiming offensive pass interference on Urzendowski.

WTF that's ridiculous. RJ adjusted to the ball the DB fell down where was the OPI???

[Gil Dobie]

WTF that's ridiculous. RJ adjusted to the ball the DB fell down where was the OPI???

I watched is several times on DVR and didn't see anything but incidental contact.

[Pards Rule]

but how many people are thinking that while in the heat of the moment? Not many...


Agreed! But now in retrospect he would have done so!!

[blueballs]

Should the Dback have grabbed Urzendowski for a 15 yard penalty, instead of allowing the opportunity for the catch?

On another message board, they are claiming offensive pass interference on Urzendowski.

No way, just a guy making a play... no penalty there.

[Sycamore62]

I feel like I hate both teams enough to be unbiased. That wasnt OPI

[Professor Chaos]

That wasn't OPI.

Now this was OPI


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7uS0ezb2o4

[Gil Dobie]

WOW, big push off and NO call??




WOW, big push off and NO call??

Bingo.


Missed the hold by the line too... otherwise the QB goes down before the pass.

There were a couple posters on the game day thread that mentioned that also. I reviewed the dvr recording several times and did not see the push off.

[Mr. C]

There were a couple posters on the game day thread that mentioned that also. I reviewed the dvr recording several times and did not see the push off.
I thought it was just brutally awful pass defense, particularly that late in the game.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Here's the part people are missing. It would have been 1st and goal at the 1 and the clock would have still been running. There's nothing saying that ISU couldn't have handed the ball off 3 plays and shaved some valuable time off the clock and still got the TD. At worst they would have forced NDSU to burn a timeout. That could have been huge.

[Mr. C]

In a 2008 quarterfinal game, Rodney Landers downed the ball at the one as James Madison was setting up for the game-winning score against a talented Villanova team to burn some clock. The strategy worked for the Dukes, giving Villanova little time for a comeback.

Of course that was one year removed from James Madison fumbling a first-round playoff win away at Appalachian State.

[Bisonator]

Here's the part people are missing. It would have been 1st and goal at the 1 and the clock would have still been running. There's nothing saying that ISU couldn't have handed the ball off 3 plays and shaved some valuable time off the clock and still got the TD. At worst they would have forced NDSU to burn a timeout. That could have been huge.
If's and but's were candy and nuts.....

They also could have fumbled the snap or hand off too.

[Herder]

Here's the part people are missing. It would have been 1st and goal at the 1 and the clock would have still been running. There's nothing saying that ISU couldn't have handed the ball off 3 plays and shaved some valuable time off the clock and still got the TD. At worst they would have forced NDSU to burn a timeout. That could have been huge.

The better question, should Carson Wentz have taken a knee at the 1 yard line and forced ISU to use its final time out? Two can play at this game.

[UNH Fanboi]

The better question, should Carson Wentz have taken a knee at the 1 yard line and forced ISU to use its final time out? Two can play at this game.

No, for several reasons, the first of which is that NDSU needed to score a TD, whereas ISU had the option of kicking a FG. Scoring a TD from the one yard line has a much lower probability than kicking a PAT.

[NIU007]

Agreed! But now in retrospect he would have done so!!

I was actually thinking about that too, as he was running down the field, what if he downed it at the 1? If NDSU didn't have all their TOs that might have been the way to go.

[Sycamore62]

Robertson probably had 1,000,000 things going through his head. Zero of them were "Hey, I wonder if i should take a knee"

[caribbeanhen]

if he downed it, and then fumbled the snap, he would have never forgiven himself, score the TD!

[NDSUSR]

Correct answer is "NO"

/thread

[Bisonoline]

As ISU's Tre Roberson was running away to score the lead-taking touchdown inside of two minutes remaining (1:38, to be exact), I was thinking, down it at one yard line! Of course, we all know what happened after that.

I know the old adage, "Never take points off the board." Sometimes, I don't think it applies. I believe there are times when ball and/or clock control is more important. Keep the ball, chew up some clock, pound it in if you can, or take the easy last-second field goal for the win.

Sure, it would be unorthodox, but ask the Redbirds now whether they'd do something unorthodox to take the national title.

NO!!!!!

[deez_na]

Also thought about this many times and i think he did the right thing. We had three timeouts and could have been down 1 point if they did that and we would have only needed a FG ourselves while kicking with the wind. You take the score. He did the right thing.

[Hammerhead]

Wentz should have downed it at the one yard line to burn more time off the clock.

[ISUMatt]

The Bison had all 3 timeouts so if Tre downs the ball at the one there would have been plenty of time.
As for the bomb, there was no OPI. Early in the drive ISU had no pressure and Wentz was in control. On that 3rd down play ISU missed by a quarter second of a sack or possible forced fumble. Wentz lobbed it up and it worked kudos!
I do believe there was holding on ISU's 2 point attempt but oh well. Both OLs held so much all day and virtually none of it was called.


ISUMatt

[UNHWildcat18]

Not trying to sound like a dick here but ISU's defensive coordinator is a chump. Bison have a good Oline. Vraa was hurt and one TRUE freshman made all the big catches on the day. So you blitz everyone and leave their only playmaker at WR for the game 1v1. its 3-10 and the bison didnt have a great passing game. Your front four was doing a good job containing wentz. So yes you take the points and don't have a terrible call like that on defense. again sorry if i sound like an ass but that drive never should have happened as it did. you can also call me an ass and dispute my theory

[NDSUSR]

Not trying to sound like a dick here but ISU's defensive coordinator is a chump. Bison have a good Oline. Vraa was hurt and one TRUE freshman made all the big catches on the day. So you blitz everyone and leave their only playmaker at WR for the game 1v1. its 3-10 and the bison didnt have a great passing game. Your front four was doing a good job containing wentz. So yes you take the points and don't have a terrible call like that on defense. again sorry if i sound like an ass but that drive never should have happened as it did. you can also call me an ass and dispute my theory

Well they beat you. And as far as your coaching against NDSU... What was it again? 52-14?
Yeah UNH has it all figured out.

[UNHWildcat18]

Well they beat you. And as far as your coaching against NDSU... What was it again? 52-14?
Yeah UNH has it all figured out.


Yeah everyone got smoked by you guys last year, you were truly untouchable. I didnt say UNH has it all figured out just my personal opinion, dont be so damn butthurt you just won another NC. If you think NDSU would smoke UNH this year then you are delusional. Just felt the DC for ISU really shouldn't have all out blitzed on that play is all. I am entitled to my own opinion

[NoDak 4 Ever]

Yeah everyone got smoked by you guys last year, you were truly untouchable. I didnt say UNH has it all figured out just my personal opinion, dont be so damn butthurt you just won another NC. If you think NDSU would smoke UNH this year then you are delusional. Just felt the DC for ISU really shouldn't have all out blitzed on that play is all. I am entitled to my own opinion

I always thought NDSU would smoke UNH.

[NDSUSR]

Yeah everyone got smoked by you guys last year, you were truly untouchable. I didnt say UNH has it all figured out just my personal opinion, dont be so damn butthurt you just won another NC. If you think NDSU would smoke UNH this year then you are delusional. Just felt the DC for ISU really shouldn't have all out blitzed on that play is all. I am entitled to my own opinion

Go sit in the corner until your team finds a way not to choke in the playoffs.
Me, butthurt? Bwahahaha, thats funny.

They could not get pressure on Wentz, they gambled and got burned.
Those are the facts.

[UNHWildcat18]

Go sit in the corner until your team finds a way not to choke in the playoffs.
Me, butthurt? Bwahahaha, thats funny.

They could not get pressure on Wentz, they gambled and got burned.
Those are the facts.


Those are the facts they gambled on that play and got burned, all i said was it was dumb to gamble. Also thats very disrespectful, only one out of what 120 fcs teams wins the NC have some respect to everyone else for once. Sorry we injured our starting DB's a D lineman Star WR and both QBs during the ISUr game. Sorry we couldn't hold them forever and "choked" I'd really like to know what you do for a living and what you went to school for besides being a dick on this forum most of the time.

[NDSUSR]

Those are the facts they gambled on that play and got burned, all i said was it was dumb to gamble. Also thats very disrespectful, only one out of what 120 fcs teams wins the NC have some respect to everyone else for once. Sorry we injured our starting DB's a D lineman Star WR and both QBs during the ISUr game. Sorry we couldn't hold them forever and "choked" I'd really like to know what you do for a living and what you went to school for besides being a dick on this forum most of the time.

You calling ISU's defensive coordinater a chump? Where the **** is your respect?

Go cry somewhere else. I have done very well both academically and financially.
No need to worry about me skippy.

[UNHWildcat18]

You calling ISU's defensive coordinater a chump? Where the **** is your respect?

Go cry somewhere else. I have done very well both academically and financially.
No need to worry about me skippy.


Not crying my team performed as well as it could regardless of what happened in game, every single game of the season. I guess you were right on that I did say chump which is disrespectful I guess I was more mad thinking about how crappy that play was(IMO) so you got me there, but besides the occasional bash towards citdog I'm usually not very disrespectful towards the teams we play and teams going through hard times. But congrats on winning yet again.

[NDSUSR]

Not crying my team performed as well as it could regardless of what happened in game, every single game of the season. I guess you were right on that I did say chump which is disrespectful I guess I was more mad thinking about how crappy that play was(IMO) so you got me there, but besides the occasional bash towards citdog I'm usually not very disrespectful towards the teams we play and teams going through hard times. But congrats on winning yet again.

Fair enough.

[Catsfan90]

Correct answer is "NO"

/thread

+1

[PantherRob82]

He should have thrown the ball at a cop. xlolx

[ISUMatt]

The pressure worked on the previous two plays. Watch the replay, he got that ball of within a nanosecond of being hit. Great players make great plays. Our freshman db just didn't look for the ball. To call our DC a chump is ridiculous


ISUMatt

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'll gladly take a "chump" DC that gets Lehigh to the FCS NCG.

[Bisonator]

Yeah I don't know how you can call their DC a chump. Hindsight is always 20/20. What if their blitz gets there for the sack? What if the DB doesn't fall down, he probably has a shot to pick that off or at least break it up. If's and but's were candy and nuts......

[Sycamore62]

ISUr should have let NDSU score faster so they could have got the ball back with more time.

[bisonboone11]

The pressure worked on the previous two plays. Watch the replay, he got that ball of within a nanosecond of being hit. Great players make great plays. Our freshman db just didn't look for the ball. To call our DC a chump is ridiculous


ISUMatt
Also, even though he got the throw off, it wasn't a great throw (likely because of the pressure). He threw it up for grabs and the receiver made a play on the ball.

[kdinva]

Last nite, folks analyzing the Seattle/Green Bay game asked the same question about Lynch's TD run w/85 seconds remaining in regulation.......had Lynch downed it, Seattle would have scored anyway in a play or two.....and left Green Bay with under 40 seconds to score....we'll never know.

[ISUMatt]

Same scenario, GB had 3 timeouts, just get the lead and get a stop!


ISUMatt

[Bisonwinagn]

Last nite, folks analyzing the Seattle/Green Bay game asked the same question about Lynch's TD run w/85 seconds remaining in regulation.......had Lynch downed it, Seattle would have scored anyway in a play or two.....and left Green Bay with under 40 seconds to score....we'll never know.

Please prove they would have scored in a play or two??