Playoff Bracket Predictions - it's going to get messy

[GrizDen]

Disclaimer: in the following scenario, I assume that the higher rated teams will take care of business and win this upcoming Saturday. So in the case of Montana vs. MSU, Illinois State vs. N. Iowa, James Madison vs. Towson, New Hampshire vs. Maine and even Lehigh vs. Lafayette, I’m predicting the winners to be Montana, Illinois State, N. Iowa, JMU, NHU and Lehigh respectively.

The automatic conference bids will go to:
A-10: UMass at 10-1 (RPI #1)
Big Sky: Montana at 10-1 (RPI - #4)
Gateway: Youngstown State at 9-2 (RPI - #5)
MEAC: Hampton at 10-1 (RPI - #20)
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois at 8-4 (RPI - #30) – awarded due to conference tie-breaker
Patriot: Lehigh at 7-4 (RPI - #35)
Southland: McNeese St. at 7-4 (RPI - #39)
Southern: Appalachian State at 10-1 (RPI #2)

There are 6 at-large bids that I consider “a lock” based on current rankings in Sports Network I-AA Poll and a win on Saturday if they play:
Illinois State at 9-2 (RPI - #7)
James Madison at 9-2 (RPI -#6)
Furman at 8-3 (RPI - #12)
New Hampshire at 8-3 (RPI - #8)
Southern Illinois at 8-3 (RPI -#10)
TN-Martin @ 9-2 (they’ll get in because of win-loss record, they’re RPI ranking of 25 is actually higher than potential OVC winner E. Illinois at #30

** If NDSU at 10-1 and an RPI ranking of #3 weres eligible, they would obviously be awarded a playoff selection.

That leaves two more at large spots to be doled out. I’d like the final two selections to be awarded to San Diego and Portland State.

For San Diego at 10-0, hey they’re undefeated just like Rutgers in I-A and they have an RPI ranking of #13. I’m secretly hoping they send them to Missoula. Coach Harbaugh has been talking up their program. I say they get thrown to the fire of Washington-Grizzly stadium to see if they have what it takes to compete against the big boys of I-AA.

Regarding Portland State at 7-4, they are the highest RPI rated school left in the mix at #9 and have won their last 4 I-AA games in a row. Loosing on the road to two top 25 ranked Pac-10 teams (Cal and Oregon) should not be counted as full losses in the eyes of the committee. As impressive as the win total is this year for I-AA teams against I-A, most of those victories have been over teams in the bottom 1/3 of their respective conferences. Of those wins, Portland State defeated the team with the best record, a 5-5 New Mexico.

So on to my last and final rant. This year multiple teams will have a legitimate gripe about being left home during the playoffs, amongst those are additional 7-4 teams:

Montana State – RPI #18, if they would have beat Chadron State, this would be a mute point. I don’t like that they scheduled a D-II team, but I will at least recognize that they played the second ranked team in D-II which would be the equivalent of Montana playing Iowa this year.

Cal Poly – RPI - #14, This would be a mute point if they were completely embarrassed by North Dakota State University

Northern Iowa – RPI #19, with a loss on Saturday – loosing 3 of your last 4 will take you out of playoff contention

As well as:
Coastal Carolina, your 9-2 record and RPI #21 doesn’t cut it as you only have one quality win vs. Furman at home.

So I’d like to propose an idea for the selection committee to think about for future years and potential selection changes. Take the 8 auto-bid teams and rank them 1-8 with the top 6 teams only being guaranteed a playoff berth. Mind you, this initial ranking is just for selection purposes, not for the top 4 seeds in the playoffs. Then select the 8 at-large teams to make up the initial field of 16. The next step would be to look at the remaining teams that would have been left out and using the RPI rankings, if there are one or two teams that have a higher RPI rating than either one of the last two rated auto-bid teams, they would earn a playoff berth instead.

I know this process is a little backwards from the BCS system used in I-A to determine the top 2 teams that will play for the championship and I would never want to support anything but a playoff system that I-AA currently uses. However, I think this would help in the years that either one or more conferences are having down years and not being giving a spot automatically when it seems apparent that there are multiple teams that are playing better football and have survived superior competition. Although I’m not a fan of the BCS, the one thing that I’ll give them credit for is trying to improve upon it every year. The best change is to allow non-BCS conference teams an legitimate shot at a BCS bowl game if they place high enough in the rankings. Just like in the BCS, I’m sure this proposal would cause an uproar with the teams that it effects, but I’d be curious to get your thoughts on this.

**FYI – under this proposal Lehigh and McNeese State would be sitting at home while Montana State and Cal Poly would be going to the dance.

[shakdaddy3]

i've got to say that this was really good until you put san diego the playoffs over coastal carolina [a team that actually has a solid win over a current TOP 10 IAA school as opposed to USD who has one of the worst SOS's in the country]... also, i completely disargree with your playoff system that takes out conference champs from autobid conferences and replaces them with teams based on GPI [not RPI]....

honestly, i loved your post right up until you say, "I’d like the final two selections to be awarded to San Diego and Portland State"... that sentence and the rest following are fairly rediculous and flat out bad ideas...

[AppGuy04]

If I've said this once, I've said it 1000000 times

The playoffs are about what you have done, not what you could do

[BDKJMU]

Griz Den- I know you're pretty new here, as am I. This is the 3rd message string on playoff bracket predictions, all that have been updated today, along with "Post Your Predicted Playoff Bracket!" and
"Playoff Speculation, T-6 Days". Maybe the mods can consoladate these into one string?

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

First of all, it is likely someone out of those teams who are favored to win this Saturday will lose, throwing off the entire bracket! :D Such is I-AA on the final week of regulation. Must be nice to be YSU sitting and watching from afar.

Secondly, no matter which system is used, teams will be upset. I can't say that I think your proposition is either better or worse than the current system.

Third, San Diego... ok, let's just say I think you're nuts. :smiley_wi San Diego - I'd likely have been on your side if not for all the threads on here, but it still comes down to schedule strength. Sorry, not this year, but keep working on it and we'll see you dancin' soon.

But I'll give it to you, nice work and logic GrizDen. Now I can only hope JMU doesn't see the wheels fall completely off the bus this weekend. I really want that game after Turkey Day after some of the "great" wins that somehow seem less than great now - see UNH and UR away from home. :cool:

[ASU Kep]

Coastal is a lock should they beat CSU. Furman is a quality win, and Wofford is looking very, very good as well. CSU themselves are right at the outside of the rankings.

[Retro]

Disclaimer: in the following scenario, I assume that the higher rated teams will take care of business and win this upcoming Saturday. So in the case of Montana vs. MSU, Illinois State vs. N. Iowa, James Madison vs. Towson, New Hampshire vs. Maine and even Lehigh vs. Lafayette, I’m predicting the winners to be Montana, Illinois State, N. Iowa, JMU, NHU and Lehigh respectively.

The automatic conference bids will go to:
A-10: UMass at 10-1 (RPI #1)
Big Sky: Montana at 10-1 (RPI - #4)
Gateway: Youngstown State at 9-2 (RPI - #5)
MEAC: Hampton at 10-1 (RPI - #20)
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois at 8-4 (RPI - #30) – awarded due to conference tie-breaker
Patriot: Lehigh at 7-4 (RPI - #35)
Southland: McNeese St. at 7-4 (RPI - #39)
Southern: Appalachian State at 10-1 (RPI #2)

There are 6 at-large bids that I consider “a lock” based on current rankings in Sports Network I-AA Poll and a win on Saturday if they play:
Illinois State at 9-2 (RPI - #7)
James Madison at 9-2 (RPI -#6)
Furman at 8-3 (RPI - #12)
New Hampshire at 8-3 (RPI - #8)
Southern Illinois at 8-3 (RPI -#10)
TN-Martin @ 9-2 (they’ll get in because of win-loss record, they’re RPI ranking of 25 is actually higher than potential OVC winner E. Illinois at #30

** If NDSU at 10-1 and an RPI ranking of #3 weres eligible, they would obviously be awarded a playoff selection.

That leaves two more at large spots to be doled out. I’d like the final two selections to be awarded to San Diego and Portland State.

For San Diego at 10-0, hey they’re undefeated just like Rutgers in I-A and they have an RPI ranking of #13. I’m secretly hoping they send them to Missoula. Coach Harbaugh has been talking up their program. I say they get thrown to the fire of Washington-Grizzly stadium to see if they have what it takes to compete against the big boys of I-AA.

Regarding Portland State at 7-4, they are the highest RPI rated school left in the mix at #9 and have won their last 4 I-AA games in a row. Loosing on the road to two top 25 ranked Pac-10 teams (Cal and Oregon) should not be counted as full losses in the eyes of the committee. As impressive as the win total is this year for I-AA teams against I-A, most of those victories have been over teams in the bottom 1/3 of their respective conferences. Of those wins, Portland State defeated the team with the best record, a 5-5 New Mexico.

So on to my last and final rant. This year multiple teams will have a legitimate gripe about being left home during the playoffs, amongst those are additional 7-4 teams:

Montana State – RPI #18, if they would have beat Chadron State, this would be a mute point. I don’t like that they scheduled a D-II team, but I will at least recognize that they played the second ranked team in D-II which would be the equivalent of Montana playing Iowa this year.

Cal Poly – RPI - #14, This would be a mute point if they were completely embarrassed by North Dakota State University

Northern Iowa – RPI #19, with a loss on Saturday – loosing 3 of your last 4 will take you out of playoff contention

As well as:
Coastal Carolina, your 9-2 record and RPI #21 doesn’t cut it as you only have one quality win vs. Furman at home.

So I’d like to propose an idea for the selection committee to think about for future years and potential selection changes. Take the 8 auto-bid teams and rank them 1-8 with the top 6 teams only being guaranteed a playoff berth. Mind you, this initial ranking is just for selection purposes, not for the top 4 seeds in the playoffs. Then select the 8 at-large teams to make up the initial field of 16. The next step would be to look at the remaining teams that would have been left out and using the RPI rankings, if there are one or two teams that have a higher RPI rating than either one of the last two rated auto-bid teams, they would earn a playoff berth instead.

I know this process is a little backwards from the BCS system used in I-A to determine the top 2 teams that will play for the championship and I would never want to support anything but a playoff system that I-AA currently uses. However, I think this would help in the years that either one or more conferences are having down years and not being giving a spot automatically when it seems apparent that there are multiple teams that are playing better football and have survived superior competition. Although I’m not a fan of the BCS, the one thing that I’ll give them credit for is trying to improve upon it every year. The best change is to allow non-BCS conference teams an legitimate shot at a BCS bowl game if they place high enough in the rankings. Just like in the BCS, I’m sure this proposal would cause an uproar with the teams that it effects, but I’d be curious to get your thoughts on this.

**FYI – under this proposal Lehigh and McNeese State would be sitting at home while Montana State and Cal Poly would be going to the dance.

Well, a 7 - 4 Mcneese team didn't lose to a lower division team and in fact has 2 losses to I-A... I realize Montana state beat a I-A, but IMO losing to a lower division team is big minus.

[shakdaddy3]

i'm sorry, i still can't believe the USD over Coastal pick even though you acknowledge that Coastal has a REAL AWESOME QUALITY WIN OVER A TOP 10 TEAM and USD has nothing to show except stats against the lowest of quality teams [minus Yale who is a decent at best quality team]...

[GrizDen]

Thanks for all of the quick response. I too should revise my statement that I wouldn't reallllly like to see San Diego in the playoffs, but as the committee always seems to have one surprise every year, that this may be the year they let San Diego in. If not, yes Coastal Carolina will get in via they're win-loss record.

[appfan2008]

Send USD or Coastal to the ROCK in Boone and we will show them a thing or 2!:smiley_wi

[Coastal89]

So you say Coastal only has 1 quality win, well that's 1 more than PSU. Actually, if Coastal wins this Saturday, we will have 6 wins over teams with a .500 or better record. PSU will have none. The only other teams in I-AA that will have 6 or more wins over .500 or better teams are YSU, Ill. St. and JMU. One of JMU's is against a D-II. You really should do some research before you post such ridiculousness.

[Appstate03]

Disclaimer: in the following scenario, I assume that the higher rated teams will take care of business and win this upcoming Saturday. So in the case of Montana vs. MSU, Illinois State vs. N. Iowa, James Madison vs. Towson, New Hampshire vs. Maine and even Lehigh vs. Lafayette, I’m predicting the winners to be Montana, Illinois State, N. Iowa, JMU, NHU and Lehigh respectively.

The automatic conference bids will go to:
A-10: UMass at 10-1 (RPI #1)
Big Sky: Montana at 10-1 (RPI - #4)
Gateway: Youngstown State at 9-2 (RPI - #5)
MEAC: Hampton at 10-1 (RPI - #20)
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois at 8-4 (RPI - #30) – awarded due to conference tie-breaker
Patriot: Lehigh at 7-4 (RPI - #35)
Southland: McNeese St. at 7-4 (RPI - #39)
Southern: Appalachian State at 10-1 (RPI #2)

There are 6 at-large bids that I consider “a lock” based on current rankings in Sports Network I-AA Poll and a win on Saturday if they play:
Illinois State at 9-2 (RPI - #7)
James Madison at 9-2 (RPI -#6)
Furman at 8-3 (RPI - #12)
New Hampshire at 8-3 (RPI - #8)
Southern Illinois at 8-3 (RPI -#10)
TN-Martin @ 9-2 (they’ll get in because of win-loss record, they’re RPI ranking of 25 is actually higher than potential OVC winner E. Illinois at #30

** If NDSU at 10-1 and an RPI ranking of #3 weres eligible, they would obviously be awarded a playoff selection.

That leaves two more at large spots to be doled out. I’d like the final two selections to be awarded to San Diego and Portland State.

For San Diego at 10-0, hey they’re undefeated just like Rutgers in I-A and they have an RPI ranking of #13. I’m secretly hoping they send them to Missoula. Coach Harbaugh has been talking up their program. I say they get thrown to the fire of Washington-Grizzly stadium to see if they have what it takes to compete against the big boys of I-AA.

Regarding Portland State at 7-4, they are the highest RPI rated school left in the mix at #9 and have won their last 4 I-AA games in a row. Loosing on the road to two top 25 ranked Pac-10 teams (Cal and Oregon) should not be counted as full losses in the eyes of the committee. As impressive as the win total is this year for I-AA teams against I-A, most of those victories have been over teams in the bottom 1/3 of their respective conferences. Of those wins, Portland State defeated the team with the best record, a 5-5 New Mexico.

So on to my last and final rant. This year multiple teams will have a legitimate gripe about being left home during the playoffs, amongst those are additional 7-4 teams:

Montana State – RPI #18, if they would have beat Chadron State, this would be a mute point. I don’t like that they scheduled a D-II team, but I will at least recognize that they played the second ranked team in D-II which would be the equivalent of Montana playing Iowa this year.

Cal Poly – RPI - #14, This would be a mute point if they were completely embarrassed by North Dakota State University

Northern Iowa – RPI #19, with a loss on Saturday – loosing 3 of your last 4 will take you out of playoff contention

As well as:
Coastal Carolina, your 9-2 record and RPI #21 doesn’t cut it as you only have one quality win vs. Furman at home.

So I’d like to propose an idea for the selection committee to think about for future years and potential selection changes. Take the 8 auto-bid teams and rank them 1-8 with the top 6 teams only being guaranteed a playoff berth. Mind you, this initial ranking is just for selection purposes, not for the top 4 seeds in the playoffs. Then select the 8 at-large teams to make up the initial field of 16. The next step would be to look at the remaining teams that would have been left out and using the RPI rankings, if there are one or two teams that have a higher RPI rating than either one of the last two rated auto-bid teams, they would earn a playoff berth instead.

I know this process is a little backwards from the BCS system used in I-A to determine the top 2 teams that will play for the championship and I would never want to support anything but a playoff system that I-AA currently uses. However, I think this would help in the years that either one or more conferences are having down years and not being giving a spot automatically when it seems apparent that there are multiple teams that are playing better football and have survived superior competition. Although I’m not a fan of the BCS, the one thing that I’ll give them credit for is trying to improve upon it every year. The best change is to allow non-BCS conference teams an legitimate shot at a BCS bowl game if they place high enough in the rankings. Just like in the BCS, I’m sure this proposal would cause an uproar with the teams that it effects, but I’d be curious to get your thoughts on this.

**FYI – under this proposal Lehigh and McNeese State would be sitting at home while Montana State and Cal Poly would be going to the dance.


Not to be picky, but its a moot point, not a mute point.

[Retro]

Another thing you fail to consider is that when an autobid conference like the SLC has a down year, it's not necessarily due to weaker teams, but maybe a more balanced conference where a bunch of quality teams are beating up on each other.. Early in the year, teams may win or lose games they shouldn't because the team is still melding, thus the reason conference games are played 4-5 weeks into the season..
I don't think you suddenly take the autobid away because of a percieved undeserving year by that conference, especially when that conference has proved itself beyond the 1st round of the playoffs and hasn't lost nearly every 1st rd game it is in.

[The Dude]

Putting USD in over Coastal Carolina would be a slap in the face of their program. Several years ago they were USD - great record against weak opponents - and they were shut out of the playoffs. This year they scheduled quality opponents and, if they go 9-2, will have a great record as well. Putting in USD instead of a team that overcame the weak schedule problem would be very wrong.

[appfan2008]

11-0 against terrible teams (exception Yale which doesnt count (Ivy League is terrible)) doesn't mean anything when a team like coastal is 9-2 with 2 quality wins. EX. ASU last year was 8-3 but recieved a #2 seed even though other teams had better records, because our only loses were to bowl bound teams Kansas and LSU and at Furman on a last second play... your record is not the only factor USD... sorry you will be sitting at home watching teams like Coastal play on TV on Thanksgiving weekend

[GrizDen]

Thanks Appstate03 for the spelling lesson, I've learned my new "word of the day."

Retro - I did take into account the egarding the balanced conference debate. The A-10 and Big Sky foes beat up on each other all year long. Historically, the Southland Conf has 2-3 schools with a shot at the playoffs. Don't get me started on the Patriot League....I will have little patience on that one.

Coastal Carolina - it may just be my west coast ignorance, but the 8-2 record doesn't impress me. Win a game in the playoffs, and I'll be impressed. I'll give you credit on the call out of PSU, I have seen the error of my earlier thinking. Slight re-correction, PSU does have 2 wins vs. .500 teams (I-A New Mexico and Northern Arizona). With that said, they're GPI is overinflated due to the games vs. Cal, Oregon, Montana and MSU.

[ravens]

Coastal is a lock should they beat CSU. Furman is a quality win, and Wofford is looking very, very good as well. CSU themselves are right at the outside of the rankings.

CSU's OCC schedule with 4 non-DI teams makes their SOS as bad or worse than San Diego. They went to see Jerry and Jesus in Lynchburg last week and got their butts kicked by #72 Liberty. Coastal will win big this week.

[CCU97]

Coastal Carolina - it may just be my west coast ignorance, but the 8-2 record doesn't impress me. Win a game in the playoffs, and I'll be impressed.

OK....so how do you expect us to win a playoff game if people like you don't think we should be playing in them....Two years ago we heard...your schedule isn't tough enough.....play a better schedule and keep winning and you will get in....so what do we do....schedule a much harder schedule against tougher OCC teams and wow...we actually win games and still the same result from some people....So you say play several DIA teams get our ass kicked and win the few remaining games and we could be in....just not smart logic....a loss is a loss once you reach 4...it just looks bad....if you can't win enough to look good why play the games...only one reason...the money...cause typically your playoff chances are gone....but a Coastal win this weekend should almost make them a lock for the playoffs considering the 4 loss teams out there....:twocents:

[GrizDen]

Good point. I will say this, I like seeing new teams in the playoffs. It shows that there is more depth to I-AA football. History is nice, previous playoff experience is nice, but that doesn't win football games in the present.
Best of luck to all the teams this weekend. Stay healthy and let the new debates start once the official bracket is released.

[JohnStOnge]

Well, a 7 - 4 Mcneese team didn't lose to a lower division team and in fact has 2 losses to I-A... I realize Montana state beat a I-A, but IMO losing to a lower division team is big minus.

I think you're right as a practical matter because of the way the committee looks at things. But, in terms of reality on the field, losing to a D-II like...say...North Dakota is like losing to a solid I-AA or a low level I-A in terms of caliber of competition.

[GrizDen]

I couldn't agree with you more JohnStOnge. People bring up the respect factor all the time. I'd stack the top 2-3 teams in the A-10, BSC, Gateway, Great West, OVC, Southern and Southland to compete with and/or win against the bottom third of I-A. D-II North Dakota would likely beat 1/2 of the I-AA playoff teams on a neutral field.
**When people lump all D-II schools together, it doesn't make sense as there is always an upper echelon regardless of the level your team is at.

[JohnStOnge]

D-II North Dakota would likely beat 1/2 of the I-AA playoff teams on a neutral field.


Maybe more than that.

[shakdaddy3]

so grizden, after some of the talk and maybe some new information on teams, are there any changes you would make to your playoff teams?

like i said earlier, i loved it except for your choice of USD of coastal carolina...

just wanted to know if any new info had possibly changed your mind...