Comparing EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU for a playoff spot...hmmm?

[birdsflyhigh]

Start this off by stating I think Montana beats MSU this weekend putting the Bobcats at 7-4, UNI beats IL St. putting them at 7-4, and EIU beats Jacksonville St. putting the Panthers at 8-4. PSU is already at 7-4.

Soooo...we have three 7-4 teams in UNI, MSU and PSU, plus EIU at 8-4
Which team among these four is the most deserving of a playoff spot?
Wanted to do a comparison of the quality of wins and severity of bad losses. This is a little difficult because between the 4 schools there is a mixture of DI-A, DI-AA and even D2 schools on their schedules.

Didn't like to do this but decided to go with the Sagarin ratings to get a read on the DI teams. The reason I don't like to do this is because Sagarin is HEAVILY weighted toward DI-A teams....giving less weight to DI-AA teams. So as an example California is on PSU's schedule. PSU lost to Cal, but the Golden Bears (in Sagarin) are rated higher than ANY DI-AA school, so I would qualify PSU's loss to Cal as a loss to I-AA's #1 team.
Using the Sagarin ratings, I equated all the I-A teams in terms of where they would place in I-AA.

Next I averaged the GPI ratings of all the I-AA victories for each team: EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU. Then I looked up the D2 ratings to see where those teams ranked.

Here's my findings:

Eastern Illinois

8 victories over I-AA teams with the average GPI of those teams: 75.87

and their losses:

44-30 to #7 IL St.
16-9 to #25 Tenn-Martin
42-17 to #11 Illinois (#11 is where IL would place if Sag were converted to GPI)
44-9 to #1 Hawaii (Sag conversion to GPI)


Montana State
7 victories (Colorado Sag converted to #12 GPI) with average GPI win: 45.7

and their losses:

35-24 to Chaldron St. (ranked 8th in D2)
45-0 to #23 UC-Davis
19-10 to #52 EWU
??? to #4 Montana


Northern Iowa

7 victories against I-AA teams with the average GPI rating: 41.43

and their losses:

35-31 to North Dakota (ranked 7th in D2)
28-27 to #17 Iowa State (ISU Sag converted to #17 GPI)
24-13 to #41 W. Illinois
47-23 to #10 S. Illnois


Portland State

7 victories (New Mexico Sag converted to #7GPI) with average GPI win: 52.00

and their losses:

42-16 to #1 California (Sag converted GPI)
26-20 to #4 Montana
14-0 to #18 Montana St.
55-12 to #1 Oregon (Sag converted GPI)



Results:

average GPI win:
1) UNI 41.43
2) MSU 45.7
3) PSU 52.00
4)EIU 75.87

So, the UNI Panthers come out on top quality win wise.

and the losses:

EIU ...average GPI loss: #11 (four games)
outscored 145-65 for an average loss: 36.25-16.25

MSU...average GPI loss: #26 (2 games)
outscored 64-10 for an average loss: 32.00-5.00
(did not include the D2 loss or the Montana loss)

UNI...average GPI loss: #23 (3 games)
outscored 99-63 for an average loss: 33-21
(did not include the D2 loss)

PSU...average GPI loss: #6 (4 games)
outscored 137-48 for an average loss: 34.25-12


It's a little harder to gauge the losses because of the D2 games, but just looking at the above loss tabulations, I'd say UNI and PSU are the two best teams in the catagory.

That leaves it at UNI wins the GPI average victory, but it's a toss up between UNI and PSU on the quality loss part: PSU wins the average GPI loss, but UNI wins on the margin of loss.

WHO KNOW'S????? This is all pretty crazy (and probably pretty confusing), but thought I just put it out there for the four teams: EIU, MSU, UNI and PSU. What do you guys make of all this? :eyebrow:

[GrizDen]

Good stuff. Here's how I went about predicting the playoff teams this year:

Disclaimer: in the following scenario, I assume that the higher rated teams will take care of business and win this upcoming Saturday. So in the case of Montana vs. MSU, Illinois State vs. N. Iowa, James Madison vs. Towson, New Hampshire vs. Maine and even Lehigh vs. Lafayette, I’m predicting the winners to be Montana, Illinois State, N. Iowa, JMU, NHU and Lehigh respectively.

The automatic conference bids will go to:
A-10: UMass at 10-1 (RPI #1)
Big Sky: Montana at 10-1 (RPI - #4)
Gateway: Youngstown State at 9-2 (RPI - #5)
MEAC: Hampton at 10-1 (RPI - #20)
Ohio Valley: Eastern Illinois at 8-4 (RPI - #30) – awarded due to conference tie-breaker
Patriot: Lehigh at 7-4 (RPI - #35)
Southland: McNeese St. at 7-4 (RPI - #39)
Southern: Appalachian State at 10-1 (RPI #2)

There are 6 at-large bids that I consider “a lock” based on current rankings in Sports Network I-AA Poll and a win on Saturday if they play:
Illinois State at 9-2 (RPI - #7)
James Madison at 9-2 (RPI -#6)
Furman at 8-3 (RPI - #12)
New Hampshire at 8-3 (RPI - #8)
Southern Illinois at 8-3 (RPI -#10)
TN-Martin @ 9-2 (they’ll get in because of win-loss record, they’re RPI ranking of 25 is actually higher than potential OVC winner E. Illinois at #30

** If NDSU at 10-1 and an RPI ranking of #3 weres eligible, they would obviously be awarded a playoff selection.

That leaves two more at large spots to be doled out. I’d like the final two selections to be awarded to San Diego and Portland State.

For San Diego at 10-0, hey they’re undefeated just like Rutgers in I-A and they have an RPI ranking of #13. I’m secretly hoping they send them to Missoula. Coach Harbaugh has been talking up their program. I say they get thrown to the fire of Washington-Grizzly stadium to see if they have what it takes to compete against the big boys of I-AA.

Regarding Portland State at 7-4, they are the highest RPI rated school left in the mix at #9 and have won their last 4 I-AA games in a row. Loosing on the road to two top 25 ranked Pac-10 teams (Cal and Oregon) should not be counted as full losses in the eyes of the committee. As impressive as the win total is this year for I-AA teams against I-A, most of those victories have been over teams in the bottom 1/3 of their respective conferences. Of those wins, Portland State defeated the team with the best record, a 5-5 New Mexico.

This year multiple teams will have a legitimate gripe about being left home during the playoffs, amongst those are additional 7-4 teams:

Montana State – RPI #18, if they would have beat Chadron State, this would be a mute point. I don’t like that they scheduled a D-II team, but I will at least recognize that they played the second ranked team in D-II which would be the equivalent of Montana playing Iowa this year.

Cal Poly – RPI - #14, This would be a mute point if they were completely embarrassed by North Dakota State University

Northern Iowa – RPI #19, with a loss on Saturday – loosing 3 of your last 4 will take you out of playoff contention


As well as:
Coastal Carolina, your 9-2 record and RPI #21 doesn’t cut it as you only have one quality win vs. Furman at home.

So I’d like to propose an idea for the selection committee to think about for future years and potential selection changes. Take the 8 auto-bid teams and rank them 1-8 with the top 6 teams only being guaranteed a playoff berth. Mind you, this initial ranking is just for selection purposes, not for the top 4 seeds in the playoffs. Then select the 8 at-large teams to make up the initial field of 16. The next step would be to look at the remaining teams that would have been left out and using the RPI rankings, if there are one or two teams that have a higher RPI rating than either one of the last two rated auto-bid teams, they would earn a playoff berth instead.

I know this process is a little backwards from the BCS system used in I-A to determine the top 2 teams that will play for the championship and I would never want to support anything but a playoff system that I-AA currently uses. However, I think this would help in the years that either one or more conferences are having down years and not being giving a spot automatically when it seems apparent that there are multiple teams that are playing better football and have survived superior competition. Although I’m not a fan of the BCS, the one thing that I’ll give them credit for is trying to improve upon it every year. The best change is to allow non-BCS conference teams an legitimate shot at a BCS bowl game if they place high enough in the rankings. Just like in the BCS, I’m sure this proposal would cause an uproar with the teams that it effects, but I’d be curious to get your thoughts on this.

**FYI – under this proposal Lehigh and McNeese State would be sitting at home while Montana State and Cal Poly would be going to the dance. :)




Start this off by stating I think Montana beats MSU this weekend putting the Bobcats at 7-4, UNI beats IL St. putting them at 7-4, and EIU beats Jacksonville St. putting the Panthers at 8-4. PSU is already at 7-4.

Soooo...we have three 7-4 teams in UNI, MSU and PSU, plus EIU at 8-4
Which team among these four is the most deserving of a playoff spot?
Wanted to do a comparison of the quality of wins and severity of bad losses. This is a little difficult because between the 4 schools there is a mixture of DI-A, DI-AA and even D2 schools on their schedules.

Didn't like to do this but decided to go with the Sagarin ratings to get a read on the DI teams. The reason I don't like to do this is because Sagarin is HEAVILY weighted toward DI-A teams....giving less weight to DI-AA teams. So as an example California is on PSU's schedule. PSU lost to Cal, but the Golden Bears (in Sagarin) are rated higher than ANY DI-AA school, so I would qualify PSU's loss to Cal as a loss to I-AA's #1 team.
Using the Sagarin ratings, I equated all the I-A teams in terms of where they would place in I-AA.

Next I averaged the GPI ratings of all the I-AA victories for each team: EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU. Then I looked up the D2 ratings to see where those teams ranked.

Here's my findings:

Eastern Illinois

8 victories over I-AA teams with the average GPI of those teams: 75.87

and their losses:

44-30 to #7 IL St.
16-9 to #25 Tenn-Martin
42-17 to #11 Illinois (#11 is where IL would place if Sag were converted to GPI)
44-9 to #1 Hawaii (Sag conversion to GPI)


Montana State
7 victories (Colorado Sag converted to #12 GPI) with average GPI win: 45.7

and their losses:

35-24 to Chaldron St. (ranked 8th in D2)
45-0 to #23 UC-Davis
19-10 to #52 EWU
??? to #4 Montana


Northern Iowa

7 victories against I-AA teams with the average GPI rating: 41.43

and their losses:

35-31 to North Dakota (ranked 7th in D2)
28-27 to #17 Iowa State (ISU Sag converted to #17 GPI)
24-13 to #41 W. Illinois
47-23 to #10 S. Illnois


Portland State

7 victories (New Mexico Sag converted to #7GPI) with average GPI win: 52.00

and their losses:

42-16 to #1 California (Sag converted GPI)
26-20 to #4 Montana
14-0 to #18 Montana St.
55-12 to #1 Oregon (Sag converted GPI)



Results:

average GPI win:
1) UNI 41.43
2) MSU 45.7
3) PSU 52.00
4)EIU 75.87

So, the UNI Panthers come out on top quality win wise.

and the losses:

EIU ...average GPI loss: #11 (four games)
outscored 145-65 for an average loss: 36.25-16.25

MSU...average GPI loss: #26 (2 games)
outscored 64-10 for an average loss: 32.00-5.00
(did not include the D2 loss or the Montana loss)

UNI...average GPI loss: #23 (3 games)
outscored 99-63 for an average loss: 33-21
(did not include the D2 loss)

PSU...average GPI loss: #6 (4 games)
outscored 137-48 for an average loss: 34.25-12


It's a little harder to gauge the losses because of the D2 games, but just looking at the above loss tabulations, I'd say UNI and PSU are the two best teams in the catagory.

That leaves it at UNI wins the GPI average victory, but it's a toss up between UNI and PSU on the quality loss part: PSU wins the average GPI loss, but UNI wins on the margin of loss.

WHO KNOW'S????? This is all pretty crazy (and probably pretty confusing), but thought I just put it out there for the four teams: EIU, MSU, UNI and PSU. What do you guys make of all this? :eyebrow:

[shakdaddy3]

i don't like the use of the sag ratings... but very interesting stuff... very muddled...

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Don't worry Shakdaddy, it'll all be clear in about 5 days... :nod: :smiley_wi

[crunifan]

As much as I would love to see our name be called with a 7-4 record, it just isn't gonna happen. Same for the other three schools. I don't think it is fair to the teams that go 11-0, 10-1, etc. (even if their schedule is complete and utter s**t).

With that said, UNI gets 18 or 22 starters back next year, so we will be back! :thumbsup:

[GrizFoo]

Portland State. Only 2 I-AA losses, a I-A victory, and both I-A's they lost to are in the top 25 of I-A BCS standing.

A solid team all year long, even with the loss of their #1 and #2 QB and #1 RB. They fought thru it. Great effort, and a real good team.

[CopperCat]

Portland State. Only 2 I-AA losses, a I-A victory, and both I-A's they lost to are in the top 25 of I-A BCS standing.

A solid team all year long, even with the loss of their #1 and #2 QB and #1 RB. They fought thru it. Great effort, and a real good team.

I still don't think they get in, but not by much. Hopefully the bubble teams win to make it a little easier on the committee.:smiley_wi

[ASU Kep]

I think PSU gets in. Maybe USD will take a hint...

[FlyYtown]

UNI is done.. Take it to the BANK.

[Cincy App]

I also think PSU has a good chance to make the field. CRUNIFAN, there also is a geographic or conference balance factor that will come into play with the last teams selected. If a 4-loss team gets in, it won't be to a conference that already has 3 teams in the field such as the Gateway if SIU wins this weekend.

[liverquiver52]

If Montana St. loses, and Wofford continues to roll, I don't see any way you take them over Wofford. MS lost to a D II school as well as some really bad losses to ranked teams. The only reason they should be higher right now, is their quality "win"

[Mr. C]

You definitely want to put Wofford in the 7-4 mix. The Terriers are playing well down the stretch (probably the second best team in the SoCon right now, with Furman's injury problems). Wofford lost to Appalachian State and South Carolina by a touchdown each and was at the Gamecock 10-yard line in the final seconds before South Carolina held them off. The other losses were to Furman and Coastal Carolina (by three points), a pair of teams I think will make the playoffs. If they get in, the Terriers are going to terrorize someone in the first round.

I'd rank the 7-4 teams this way: Portland State, Eastern Illinois, Montana State (that Chadron State D-II loss is what might come back to haunt the Bobcats with the committee), Wofford and Northern Iowa. I don't see UNI having a prayer of getting in and I think it is doubtful for Wofford (though I'd like to see the Terriers get in).

[liverquiver52]

I mean I realize we are a long shot, but while we don't have a win over a top notch team, we also don't have any glaring losses such as the other teams mentioned. Ultimately, I think we are victims of our own schedule. Tough schedule, young team, equals some adjustment period. I just want to see us recieve our due respect.

[WMTribe90]

I don't think MSU gets in at 7-4. The IA win was big amd the Chadron St. loss isn't as bad as it looked at the time given Chadron St. continued success this year. I think what kills MSU is the 49-0 loss to UC Davis. Playoff teams should never lose a game in that fashion.

I think UNI is done becasue the comittee won't take a fourth GFC team with four losses.

I don't think EIU's resume is quite strong enough.

So, I agree PSU has the best shot. They would only be the second BSC team in the field. Geographically the fill a need for another western team, since the SLC will only send one and Cal Poly is out. Lastly, they have a IA win, two respectable IA loses and no "bad" loses to I-AA teams. PSU has to be taken ahead of SDU. Monmouth should be in ahead of SDU also.

If Towson and UNH both win on Saturday it will be interesting to see what the comittee does with the A10. Umass is the autobid. UNH is a lock with their IA win and 8 DI wins overall. I think Towson and JMU shouldboth be in given the lack of 8 win teams. However, if the comittee opted for just 3 from the A10, I think JMU would be in bad shape. They would end the year with two straight losses and only 7 DI wins total. They would also lose the head to head with Towson, who would have just beaten them. Towson would have 8 DI wins.

Should be interesting.

[birdsflyhigh]

It's interesting how many of you say that UNI is done, doesn't have a prayer, or in the tank. Did any of you really look at the work-up I just made. IF (and that's a BIG if), the Panthers beat the ISU Redbirds in the season finale, then according to the factors (quality wins, point margins and severity of losses), it would be UNI and PSU with the better chances of being in the playoffs.

EIU would be at the bottom with MSU above them, but both would still be trailing UNI and PSU. I'm going to check out a 7-4 Wofford team today and see what I come up with. Also I've not heard of taking a certain number of teams from each region...hmmmm?

Cool....thanks for the feedback fans. :cool:

[GannonFan]

I'd rank the 7-4 teams this way: Portland State, Eastern Illinois, Montana State (that Chadron State D-II loss is what might come back to haunt the Bobcats with the committee), Wofford and Northern Iowa. I don't see UNI having a prayer of getting in and I think it is doubtful for Wofford (though I'd like to see the Terriers get in).

I almost agree, although I would put Wofford up either after Portland St or Eastern Illinois. I think, at this point, Portland St is almost a gimme if they finish 7-4, the resume is that good and the number of teams with better records is dwindling.

[nmatsen]

UNI as well as any other four loss team IS DONE!!!!

[blukeys]

Also I've not heard of taking a certain number of teams from each region...hmmmm?



There is no requirement for taking a certain number of teams from each region.

[henfan]

I'm suprised that people continue to underestimate a 9-2 Delaware State's chances, especially when compared to any team with 4 losses. A 9-2 team from an auto-bid league is a far easier choice for the PSC than selecting between a group of 7-4 teams.

[GannonFan]

I'm suprised that people continue to underestimate a 9-2 Delaware State's chances, especially when compared to any team with 4 losses. A 9-2 team from an auto-bid league is a far easier choice for the PSC than selecting between a group of 7-4 teams.

I think Portland St gets in before Delaware St, but you're right, Delaware St with a win to go 9-2 could very well get in this year. They'll be first round fodder for whoever they'll play but they have a decent chance of getting in, IMO.

[WMTribe90]

Not ruling out DSU. I think a 9-2 DSU could make a decent case against any of the 7-4 squads. Personally, I take PSU over DSU, but not by much. Biggest knock on DSU is a lack of quality wins. Nothing to write home about in their win column.

BirdsFlyHigh,

I realize there are no limits on the number of teams from one conference, but I feel like the comittee is somewhat reluctant to take four from one conference. A 7-4 UNI is relatively easy to justify leaving out. Just my opinion that the comittee would rather take a second BSC team with nearly the same credentials as opposed to a fourth GFC team.

[Proud Griz Man]

mute point? xidiotx xlolx

[henfan]

I don't think Del State is the competitive equal to most of the 6-4 teams mentioned here, however, they might represent an easier choice for the PSC. I'd agree that they are likely first round fodder for whomever they go up against, though I'm reminded of the name of this message board... Still, it would be nice recognition for their program. The Hornets have a tough road game this Saturday against rival Howard, without their starting QB.

[hawkeye]

Start this off by stating I think Montana beats MSU this weekend putting the Bobcats at 7-4, UNI beats IL St. putting them at 7-4, and EIU beats Jacksonville St. putting the Panthers at 8-4. PSU is already at 7-4.

Soooo...we have three 7-4 teams in UNI, MSU and PSU, plus EIU at 8-4
Which team among these four is the most deserving of a playoff spot?
Wanted to do a comparison of the quality of wins and severity of bad losses. This is a little difficult because between the 4 schools there is a mixture of DI-A, DI-AA and even D2 schools on their schedules.

Didn't like to do this but decided to go with the Sagarin ratings to get a read on the DI teams. The reason I don't like to do this is because Sagarin is HEAVILY weighted toward DI-A teams....giving less weight to DI-AA teams. So as an example California is on PSU's schedule. PSU lost to Cal, but the Golden Bears (in Sagarin) are rated higher than ANY DI-AA school, so I would qualify PSU's loss to Cal as a loss to I-AA's #1 team.
Using the Sagarin ratings, I equated all the I-A teams in terms of where they would place in I-AA.

Next I averaged the GPI ratings of all the I-AA victories for each team: EIU, UNI, MSU and PSU. Then I looked up the D2 ratings to see where those teams ranked.

Here's my findings:

Eastern Illinois

8 victories over I-AA teams with the average GPI of those teams: 75.87

and their losses:

44-30 to #7 IL St.
16-9 to #25 Tenn-Martin
42-17 to #11 Illinois (#11 is where IL would place if Sag were converted to GPI)
44-9 to #1 Hawaii (Sag conversion to GPI)


Montana State
7 victories (Colorado Sag converted to #12 GPI) with average GPI win: 45.7

and their losses:

35-24 to Chaldron St. (ranked 8th in D2)
45-0 to #23 UC-Davis
19-10 to #52 EWU
??? to #4 Montana


Northern Iowa

7 victories against I-AA teams with the average GPI rating: 41.43

and their losses:

35-31 to North Dakota (ranked 7th in D2)
28-27 to #17 Iowa State (ISU Sag converted to #17 GPI)
24-13 to #41 W. Illinois
47-23 to #10 S. Illnois


Portland State

7 victories (New Mexico Sag converted to #7GPI) with average GPI win: 52.00

and their losses:

42-16 to #1 California (Sag converted GPI)
26-20 to #4 Montana
14-0 to #18 Montana St.
55-12 to #1 Oregon (Sag converted GPI)



Results:

average GPI win:
1) UNI 41.43
2) MSU 45.7
3) PSU 52.00
4)EIU 75.87

So, the UNI Panthers come out on top quality win wise.

and the losses:

EIU ...average GPI loss: #11 (four games)
outscored 145-65 for an average loss: 36.25-16.25

MSU...average GPI loss: #26 (2 games)
outscored 64-10 for an average loss: 32.00-5.00
(did not include the D2 loss or the Montana loss)

UNI...average GPI loss: #23 (3 games)
outscored 99-63 for an average loss: 33-21
(did not include the D2 loss)

PSU...average GPI loss: #6 (4 games)
outscored 137-48 for an average loss: 34.25-12


It's a little harder to gauge the losses because of the D2 games, but just looking at the above loss tabulations, I'd say UNI and PSU are the two best teams in the catagory.

That leaves it at UNI wins the GPI average victory, but it's a toss up between UNI and PSU on the quality loss part: PSU wins the average GPI loss, but UNI wins on the margin of loss.

WHO KNOW'S????? This is all pretty crazy (and probably pretty confusing), but thought I just put it out there for the four teams: EIU, MSU, UNI and PSU. What do you guys make of all this? :eyebrow:

From the OVC standpoint, both EIU and Tenn State have Jacksonville St. and EKU Saturday. Tough games. UT Martin has Murray St.(But not a guarantee win,)

EIU, Tenn St. and UT Martin are tied for now. If UT Martin wins, regardless they should, I say should get an at large bid. If all 3 win Saturday in a tie, EIU beat Tenn St, Martin beat EIU. If Im not mistaken it goes to UTM beating EIU, but wait, EIU beat Tenn St. This is all too muddled up. Lets just wait and see what happens Saturday. Why does all of this have to be so messed up?:bang:

[DaGriz]

My only problem with a 7-4 PSU team getting in over a 7-4 MSU team is MSU shut out PSU 14-0. When you beat somebody head to head and have the same record, tough to leave out MSU in my opinion. (If a 7-4 team gets in).

[birdsflyhigh]

Did a work-up for Wofford and Delaware St. and this is what I came up with:


Delaware State

8 wins against I-AA teams with the average GPI win: 89.62
(Didn't include the Concord win because it was non DI)

and their losses:

23-3 to #63 NW Louisiana
29-14 to #20 Hampton



Wofford

7 wins against I-AA teams with the average GPI win: 59.43

and their losses:

41-38 to #21 Coastal Carolina
27-20 to #1 South Carolina (SC Sag converts to #1 GPI)
35-21 to #12 Furman
14-7 to #2 Appalacian St.



GPI average win results:

1.UNI 41.43
2.MSU 45.7
3.PSU 52.00
4.Wofford 59.43
5.EIU 75.87
6.DSU 89.62

Soooo...UNI still on top with EIU and DSU well back from the top 4.


DSU...average GPI loss: 41.5 (2 games)
outscored 52-17 for an average loss: 26-8.5

Wofford...average GPI loss: 9 (four games)
outscored 117-86 for an average loss: 29.25-21.5


And on the loss side, (this kind of suprised me) Wofford comes out on top because they played 4 high GPI teams very close in their losses, however their lower GPI quality win average brings them down a little.

Both EIU and DSU do not compare well in side-by-side comparisons with the other 4 teams. I'd have to say with the work-up numbers, it looks like UNI, PSU or Wofford are the best bets of the six teams. :)

[Chucktown]

EIU @ YSU

[birdsflyhigh]

Chucktown, the numbers don't very look good for EIU. Think the Panthers have an excellent program, and look for them to come on strong next season.

[GannonFan]

My only problem with a 7-4 PSU team getting in over a 7-4 MSU team is MSU shut out PSU 14-0. When you beat somebody head to head and have the same record, tough to leave out MSU in my opinion. (If a 7-4 team gets in).

The only thing is, once you get down to so many losses, it's hard to take just one, even a head to head one, and judge from there. Portland St's other 3 losses were to Montana and 2 very good IA teams in Oregon and Cal. If Montana St has 4 losses, it will be to Montana as well, but then Eastern Washington, a huge loss to UC Davis (45-0?), and a double digit loss to Chadron St, with 3 of those losses at home nonetheless. Portland St's losses just look better than Montana St's, and when you have 4 losses that will matter maybe even more than one head to head game.

[Chucktown]

birdsflyhigh, I am just predicting.... EIU will be playing at YSU next saturday. If the panthers win this weekend, I believe that they are in, and they will be at #4 YSU. There are a few games that we need won. For example, we really need ISU to beat UNI this week. We would also like to see either Tenn Martin lose, or Tennessee State Win. But i dont really see either of those happening, so we might just have to hope for that at large.

But I do believe that EIU @ YSU
and Martin @ ISU

[GannonFan]

Both EIU and DSU do not compare well in side-by-side comparisons with the other 4 teams. I'd have to say with the work-up numbers, it looks like UNI, PSU or Wofford are the best bets of the six teams. :)


Buuuut, UNI would be the 4th team in from the Gateway, and only twice has a conference gotten 4 in and each team the 4th team was far more deserving than UNI is. Portland St could very well be the second team in from the Big Sky, Wofford would be the 3rd in from the SoCon, and EIU and DSU would be the 2nd teams in from the OVC and MEAC respectively. While that's a soft analysis, it's a reality as well - I think the committee would look for reasons to keep a 4th team out of the Gateway while looking to get a 2nd team in from a conference like the Big Sky.

[UMass922]

The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that if UNI beats ISU on Saturday, the Panthers are the #1 seven-win team. They would have two quality wins (over YSU and ISU) the caliber of which none of the other seven-win/four-loss teams could match. Teams like Portland State and Eastern Illinois have "forgiveable losses" (two I-A losses apiece--and remember that UNI has a one-point I-A loss of its own, for what its worth), but I just don't see much in the quality-win department for either team, other than PSU's early-season win over I-A New Mexico. UNI is the only team of the bunch that has won even one game--much less the two that they have--against top-tier I-AA teams. EIU and PSU have each had their chances, but lost--EIU to ISU and UT-M, and PSU to Montana and MSU. UNI will have beaten the two best I-AA teams on its schedule; EIU and PSU will each have lost to the top two I-AA teams on their respective schedues.

This is to say, I believe a UNI team that beats ISU on Saturday will have provided much more substantial evidence than the other seven-win/four-loss schools that it can beat championship-caliber I-AA teams. It's true that UNI has an (early-season) loss to a D-II, just as MSU does--but UNI would have the high-quality wins (the likes of which MSU doesn't have) to counterbalance that. What also could hurt UNI is the severity (24 points) of its late-season loss to a playoff-caliber SIU team--but again, at least UNI would have the quality wins to compensate a little; MSU and PSU don't have the corresponding quality wins to compensate for their respective shutout losses to Davis and MSU.

I readily concede that in most years this UNI team would not be playoff-worthy, but in a year in which the committee will almost certainly have to pull a team out of the dreaded seven-win/four-loss barrel, UNI seems to be the worthiest of the bunch. And it's because the Panthers (if they beat ISU on Saturday) will have supplied the most evidence that they can beat championship-caliber I-AA teams.

[Mr. C]

What will kill Northern Iowa is the fact that the Panthers are the fourth-best team from their conference and I doubt that the committee will take a 7-4 team that finishes fourth. There is no guarantee that UNI will beat a top-10 Illinois State squad anyway. Montana State would be the No. 2 team from the Big Sky, Portland State the No. 3. Wofford would be No. 3 in the SoCon and Eastern Illinois would finish no worst than No. 2 in the OVC.

[GannonFan]

What will kill Northern Iowa is the fact that the Panthers are the fourth-best team from their conference and I doubt that the committee will take a 7-4 team that finishes fourth. .

YUP!!!! :thumbsup: :nod: :thumbsup: :nod:

[UMass922]

What will kill Northern Iowa is the fact that the Panthers are the fourth-best team from their conference and I doubt that the committee will take a 7-4 team that finishes fourth. There is no guarantee that UNI will beat a top-10 Illinois State squad anyway. Montana State would be the No. 2 team from the Big Sky, Portland State the No. 3. Wofford would be No. 3 in the SoCon and Eastern Illinois would finish no worst than No. 2 in the OVC.

I can't predict what the committee will do--I'll concede, Mr. C, that you have a much better sense than I do of how the selections are likely to go--but in theory, at least, conference affiliation is not supposed to matter; the committee is simply supposed to select "the best eight teams available on a national at-large basis." For me, at least, it doesn't matter than UNI is the fourth-best team in its conference, especially because the top three teams are all going to be in the playoffs themselves anyway. What matters (or what should matter) is how UNI compares to EIU, PSU, MSU, Wofford, etc.--and I think the Panthers compare favorably to these teams.

And besides, if UNI beats Illinois State (which obviously is not a guarantee; it's just a hypothetical we've been working with from the beginning here), it will have gone 2-1 against the three (playoff) teams ahead of it in the Gateway standings. There's a huge difference between that and a fourth-place team that goes 0-3 against the teams ahead of it. If the latter were the case, UNI's fourth-place status would be more significant.

[bkrownd]

If Towson and UNH both win on Saturday it will be interesting to see what the comittee does with the A10. Umass is the autobid. UNH is a lock with their IA win and 8 DI wins overall.

Not so fast, my friend! UNH fell on its face when it came time to compete for the A-10 title, so they didn't do anything to prove they deserved a playoff spot when it mattered the most. Being a "good" team playing a "good" schedule isn't enough. Beating a program in a tailspin, I-A included, isn't enough. Dazzling the computer "polls" isn't enough. Falling flat at the exact wrong moment isn't going to cut it.

[GannonFan]

Not so fast, my friend! UNH fell on its face when it came time to compete for the A-10 title, so they didn't do anything to prove they deserved a playoff spot when it mattered the most. Being a "good" team playing a "good" schedule isn't enough. Beating a program in a tailspin, I-A included, isn't enough. Dazzling the computer "polls" isn't enough. Falling flat at the exact wrong moment isn't going to cut it.

Well, don't worry about it - an 8-3 UNH team this year is the closest thing to an absolute lock to make the playoffs that you'll ever see. That would be a gambler's dream to get to bet on that.

[STACCATS]

What kills me is all the posters who seem to have this belief that a team with 4 losses can't make the field(MMAtsen).

It happened in 95, with Idaho from the BSC making it, and it's going to happen again this year. Look at the records of the eligible playoff teams, there aren't enough teams with records at 8-3 or better. (assuming JMU beats Towson this weekend.)

So back to the original discussion.
PSU looks good with their strength of schedule, but only has two quality wins(wins against teams with a .500 record or above, or a 1-A win). New Mexico and NAU. Compare that to MSU, who beat Colorado, NAU, and PSU. So yes, PSU has better losses, but MSU has better wins. MSU could have scheduled Oregon and Cal, and still had the same record they have now, but does getting blown out by those two teams(like PSU did)make them a better team? I think not.

EIU is in a week conference according to GPI, and I don't think the OVC should warrant an at large bid.

UNI would be 4th in the Gateway, no way the committee takes that many.

Wofford has come on late, and I could see a real case for them, but do you take a third team from the Southern over a third team from the BSC(assuming you take PSU) when the BSC is rated ahead of the Southern?

Plus I love the fact there is no San Diego talk, and rightfully so.

I think when Saturday is over and done with, there will be two at large spots(assuming UM beats MSU) and the following four teams to decide from:

MSU
PSU
EIU
Wofford

I would also add, should Maine beat New Hampshire, there will be 3 at large spots left from the following teams:

MSU
PSU
EIU
Wofford
Maine
New Hampshire

[birdsflyhigh]

My thought is WHY so many posters are hung up on "oh, the selection crew will NOT take # of teams from fill-in-the-blank conference". I would think they WOULD want to pick the BEST teams available REGARDLESS of which conference they play in or where they placed in that conference.

To exclude a superior team (a proven and tested team that has the numbers to show for a tremendous season against quality competition) because a certain conference already has so many going, that is absolutely NOT RIGHT! Shouldn't the playoffs be about putting the BEST 16 teams selected on the field and letting them battle it out for the national championship?

This is just one of those years where parody has come to I-AA. There are definitely 7-4 teams that ARE in the top 16...no doubt about that!
The first question is which 7-4 team has the credentials to be selected for the playoffs? AND the second question is why should it matter WHICH conference a team comes from as long as that team has proven by it's play over the season to truly be one of the top 16 teams?

Alright, I've had my say...just going to let it go. For the life of me though, I can't understand why any AGS fan would NOT want the BEST 16 teams playing for a TRUE national championship. Peace out. :)

[bkrownd]

Well, don't worry about it - an 8-3 UNH team this year is the closest thing to an absolute lock to make the playoffs that you'll ever see. That would be a gambler's dream to get to bet on that.

Just what have they proven this year? That they can win the 8 games they should have won anyway and lose the 3 that mattered most? Not impressive. Next!

[UMass922]

I would also add, should Maine beat New Hampshire, there will be 3 at large spots left from the following teams:

MSU
PSU
EIU
Wofford
Maine
New Hampshire

Nope. Maine is done. One of their wins is over a D-II team (Shaw), so they can only finish with six D-I wins max.

[UMass922]

Just what have they proven this year? That they can win the 8 games they should have and lose the 3 that mattered most? Not impressive. Next!

Well, I think if UNH wins on Saturday they're going to get in, simply because of the lack of eight-win teams from auto-bid conferences. But if this year were like most other years, an 8-3 UNH without a marquee I-AA win would be much more precariously on the bubble.

[UMass922]

My thought is WHY so many posters are hung up on "oh, the selection crew will NOT take # of teams from fill-in-the-blank conference". I would think they WOULD want to pick the BEST teams available REGARDLESS of which conference they play in or where they placed in that conference.

To exclude a superior team (a proven and tested team that has the numbers to show for a tremendous season against quality competition) because a certain conference already has so many going, that is absolutely NOT RIGHT! Shouldn't the playoffs be about putting the BEST 16 teams selected on the field and letting them battle it out for the national championship?

This is just one of those years where parody has come to I-AA. There are definitely 7-4 teams that ARE in the top 16...no doubt about that!
The first question is which 7-4 team has the credentials to be selected for the playoffs? AND the second question is why should it matter WHICH conference a team comes from as long as that team has proven by it's play over the season to truly be one of the top 16 teams?

Alright, I've had my say...just going to let it go. For the life of me though, I can't understand why any AGS fan would NOT want the BEST 16 teams playing for a TRUE national championship. Peace out. :)

I'm with you.

[Khan4Cats]

What will kill Northern Iowa is the fact that the Panthers are the fourth-best team from their conference and I doubt that the committee will take a 7-4 team that finishes fourth. There is no guarantee that UNI will beat a top-10 Illinois State squad anyway. Montana State would be the No. 2 team from the Big Sky, Portland State the No. 3. Wofford would be No. 3 in the SoCon and Eastern Illinois would finish no worst than No. 2 in the OVC.

Just wanted to clarify that if UNI wins on Saturday they will finish in a tie for 2nd in the Gateway with Illinois State at 5-2 conference.

The argument is will they take a fourth team from the Gateway not the 4th place team, Southern Illinois will finish in 4th with that scenario.

Still, UNI needs a lot of help to get in on Saturday, IF they can beat Illinois State. UNH, Towson, Montana State, Coastal, and EIU all losing would open the door for a better chance.

Of course, if SIU loses, then UNI would make a third team from the Gateway argument case, but we know how that worked out for YSU last year.

[UMass922]

Just wanted to clarify that if UNI wins on Saturday they will finish in a tie for 2nd in the Gateway with Illinois State at 5-2 conference.

The argument is will they take a fourth team from the Gateway not the 4th place team, Southern Illinois will finish in 4th with that scenario.

Still, UNI needs a lot of help to get in on Saturday, IF they can beat Illinois State. UNH, Towson, Montana State, Coastal, and EIU all losing would open the door for a better chance.

Of course, if SIU loses, then UNI would make a third team from the Gateway argument case, but we know how that worked out for YSU last year.

Good catch, Khan--UNI would indeed be 2nd in the Gateway if they beat ISU, so you're right that the issue would be about taking a fourth team, not a fourth-place team.

I also agree with you, obviously, that losses by all those other teams would help--except for Coastal, which I think even with a loss will still be ahead of UNI in the pecking order. All those other teams, though, are in the win-they're-in/lose-they're-out camp, IMHO. Even just a couple of them losing would help UNI's chances immensely (though obviously the Panther's first order of business is beating ISU--no easy task, of course).

[lizrdgizrd]

This is just one of those years where parody has come to I-AA.

I thought this wasn't supposed to be a bust on USD thread. :smiley_wi

Sorry, couldn't resist.xlolx

[birdsflyhigh]

Sorry for the long title of the thread. After doing a comparison thread for DSU, EIU, MSU, UNI, PSU & Wofford, thought I'd include the other playoff contenders to see where they stack up against the others.
Here's what I came up with:

Monmouth

10 victories over I-AA teams with the GPI average win: 87.5

and their loss:

36-17 to #83 Stonybrook


Townson State
(I think JMU has a good shot to win on Saturday, so that would drop Townson's record to 7-4...putting them on the playoff bubble)

7 victories over I-AA teams with the GPI average win: 53.28

and their losses:

35-0 to #1 U Mass
29-28 to #47 William & Mary
28-7 to #11 Maine
??? to #6 James Madison


San Diego

8 victories over I-AA teams with the GPI average win: 94.25
(other 2 victories we're against non DI teams ...Azuza Pacific 3-9 and Dixie State 1-9)


Sooo comparing the 9 teams average GPI win, it goes like this:

1)UNI 41.43
2)MSU 45.7
3)PSU 52.00
4)Townson 53.28
5)Wofford 59.43
6)EIU 75.87
7)Monmouth 87.5
8)Delaware St. 89.62
9)San Diego 94.25

UNI comes out on top followed closely by MSU. PSU, Townson and Wofford are all on the next level. EIU, Monmouth, Delaware St and San Diego are all quite a ways down the line.


Monmouth average GPI loss: #83 (1 game)
outscored 36-17 for same average

Townson St. average GPI loss: #16.25 (3 games)
outscored 92-35 for an average loss of 30.67-11.67


What I got out of adding these 3 teams to the comparison was just how weak Monmouth and San Diego's wins look. With San Diego's being the weakest of all. Indiana St. (who went 1-10) is ranked #91 in the GPI. That same #91 IN St. Sycamore team (who's average loss was by a whopping 26 points) is STILL ranked higher than the average GPI win by San DIego. IN St. is #91, while the average USD win is #94.25. Please don't kill the messenger USD fans, I'm just putting the numbers out there.

If the playoff selection committee indeed wants to put the BEST 16 through to the playoffs, then IMO it would come down to a short list of UNI, MSU, PSU, Townson or Wofford. Irregardless of which conference each of these teams play in and just looking at each team individually, all 5 of those teams have demonstrated throughout the season they are playoff calibur. :cool:

[liverquiver52]

Good job with lots of factual information!

[birdsflyhigh]

Thanks liver! I've enjoyed examing the numbers and seeing which teams are the top playoff candidates.

Just read where TSN put Coastal Carolina in the mix, so I thought I'd do a work-up on them. Here's what I came up with:


Coastal Carolina (assuming they beat Chuck South)

8 wins against I-AA teams with the average GPI win: 57.75
(also will have 1 win against non DI Winston-Salem)

and their losses:

38-21 to #55 Georgia Southern
23-20 to #45 Elon


Coastal would rank #5 for GPI win average (amongst the 10 teams)

1)UNI 41.43
2)MSU 45.7
3)PSU 52.00
4)Townson 53.28
5)Coastal Carolina 57.75
6)Wofford 59.43

then it drops way down to
7)EIU 75.87
8)Monmouth 87.5
9)Delaware St. 89.62
10)San Diego 94.25


Coastal Carolina average GPI loss: #50 (2 games)
outscored 61-41 for an average loss of 30.5-20.5


So it looks like Coastal Carolina compares decently in terms of average GPI win, but it's their average GPI loss (losing to the #45 and #55 teams) that's very troubling.