One spot left

[TypicalTribe]

Call me crazy, but it looks like the committee only has one hard choice to make:

Autos: NDSU, UNH, EWU, Jax St, Liberty, SHSU, SHU, San Diego, Fordham. BCC and Chatty

At-large: Ill St, SDSU, UNI (with a win), MSU, Montana, EKU, Coastal, SELA, Nova, JMU, UR/JMU, SFA

That's 23 teams. I think Bryant and Bucknell played themselves out and NAU is losing. Not a lot of teams left to choose from. 7-5 Indiana St is out of luck I think, but who gets the call? Is Lamar in the mix? 9-3 NC A&T despite losing today? I think Idaho State gets the call but who knows?

[dgreco]

Morgan St. is the auto for the MEAC, BCU is likely an at-large team.

I think the final 2 spots will be between the following:

UNI (with a win)
W&M/UR loser
SFA
Bucknell
Bryant
Cal Poly (with a win)
ISUo (with a win)
Wagner ?
ISUb ?

If that is the pool of teams for the final two spots I think it is clearly going to be UNI and SFA.

[lionsrking2]

Call me crazy, but it looks like the committee only has one hard choice to make:

Autos: NDSU, UNH, EWU, Jax St, Liberty, SHSU, SHU, San Diego, Fordham. BCC and Chatty

At-large: Ill St, SDSU, UNI (with a win), MSU, Montana, EKU, Coastal, SELA, Nova, JMU, UR/JMU, SFA

That's 23 teams. I think Bryant and Bucknell played themselves out and NAU is losing. Not a lot of teams left to choose from. 7-5 Indiana St is out of luck I think, but who gets the call? Is Lamar in the mix? 9-3 NC A&T despite losing today? I think Idaho State gets the call but who knows?

Morgan State gets the MEAC auto.

[kdinva]

(Morgan St. is the representative from the MEAC).....

[FargoBison]

My thoughts....
Autobids(11): EWU, Liberty UNH, Morgan State, NDSU, Sacred Heart, Jacksonville State, Fordham, San Diego, Chattanooga and SHSU
At Large(13): ISUR, Nova, CCU, UNI, SELA, SDSU, JMU, EKU, Richmond/W&M Montana, Montana State, SFA, Bethune-Cookman

Bubble burst: Idaho State, Cal Poly, W&M/UR loser, Lamar, NC A&T and Indiana State.

[jmrepak]

My thoughts....
Autobids(11): EWU, Liberty UNH, Morgan State, NDSU, Sacred Heart, Jacksonville State, Fordham, San Diego, Chattanooga and SHSU
At Large(13): ISUR, Nova, CCU, UNI, SELA, SDSU, JMU, EKU, Richmond/W&M Montana, Montana State, SFA, Bethune-Cookman

Bubble burst: Idaho State, Cal Poly, W&M/UR loser, Lamar, NC A&T and Indiana State.
This. People underestimate the ability of the MEAC to get an undeserved 2nd

[smilo]

Assuming UNI wins, I will put them and SDSU as In. Eligible teams that have no shot: Dayton, NCC, Sac St (though technically not even), Wagner, SC St, Albany, NAU (losses to USD, UNCO, UND, and SUU), and Lamar (schedule just too weak).

That leaves 5 spots for 14 teams (assuming Samford loses): Bucknell, A+T, BCU, ISU-b, YSU, UR, WMU, MSU, Bryant, SFA, Montana, CP, Idaho St, and Charleston Southern.

UR/W&M winner gets one as does Montana/MSU winner. Since that's looking increasingly like Montana, the Bobcats have a good shot at the 3rd bid but this disastrous performance could make it iffy.
Down to 2 spots:


Last Wk Sag
School
Wins


39
Bucknell
8


40
NC A&T
8


50
Bethune-Cookman
8


13
Indiana State
7


17
Youngstown Sta
7


24
Richmond
7


OR 29
William & Mary
7


31
Montana State
7


37
Bryant
7


33
Stephen F. Aus
7


35
Cal Poly-SLO
7 (unless they lose)


21
Idaho State
6


34
Charleston So
6



Bucknell and Bryant losses are just inexcusable today. Especially Bryant. Bucknell still has the 8 wins going for them at least. Neither is geographically helpful for pairings either. Make it more difficult and expensive while not deserving to be in.

Effectively this comes down to 7 win MVFC teams (Indiana State and Youngstown State) vs. 8+D2 win MEAC teams which the committee will love (Bethune-Cookman and NC A&T). The first one of each group has an FBS win which the committee will love even more due to their overvaluation of that regardless of who it was. Geography may play a role too. The battle for east Virginia loser plus only 4-loss SFA are certainly dark horses. Effectively 6 teams still in it.

IMO, ISU-b plus UR/W&M deserve it. If you look at last year, they took 3 SLC teams and IIRC, SHSU was on the fence. They also took the controversial 2nd MEAC team. Both over Youngstown on a 3 game losing streak. So if the past is any precedent...SFA and BCU likely I guess. Youngstown and Richmond better be scared.

Idaho State may be good but not quite as good as the MVFC schools. Them and CP both make it very difficult for travel and they are right on the fence of eligibility (and CP has the bad loss in a must win game).
I could see the committee citing CSU as one of the last teams out, but I can't see them being put in when the Big South already has two bids over an MVFC team. That would look foolish. Idaho St probably even more likely to be cited in such a fashion just to recognize their surprise season.


EDIT: After further review, I don't see why the 7+D2 Montana's are that much more in than 7 win MVFC's and 8+D2 MEAC's (well, yes better than the latter group obviously, but in the committee's eyes). Those all seem pretty equivalent when you consider the conferences. It really ought to be 4 open spots. But the BSC will probably successfully argue for its 3 considering Montana's history.

[FargoBison]

This. People underestimate the ability of the MEAC to get an undeserved 2nd

Especially when the alternatives are teams with five losses or less than seven DI wins....

[centennial]

Even with the loss ISU, YSU are superior to any other team however not sure of they are in..

[skinny_uncle]

Even with the loss ISU, YSU are superior to any other team however not sure of they are in..

doubtful.

[Drblankstare]

YSU is out after today. Fair or not the collapse in Novemeber up is hard to reward

[JSUBison]

My thoughts....
Autobids(11): EWU, Liberty UNH, Morgan State, NDSU, Sacred Heart, Jacksonville State, Fordham, San Diego, Chattanooga and SHSU
At Large(13): ISUR, Nova, CCU, UNI, SELA, SDSU, JMU, EKU, Richmond/W&M Montana, Montana State, SFA, Bethune-Cookman

Bubble burst: Idaho State, Cal Poly, W&M/UR loser, Lamar, NC A&T and Indiana State.

I agree.


This. People underestimate the ability of the MEAC to get an undeserved 2nd

MEAC is a meat grinder. Anybody can beat anybody. No easy games, and you can't take a week off.

[kalm]

I agree.



MEAC is a meat grinder. Anybody can beat anybody. No easy games, and you can't take a week off.

Oh good lord.

[clenz]

I agree.



MEAC is a meat grinder. Anybody can beat anybody. No easy games, and you can't take a week off.

Is that why the last time a meac team won a playoff game was like 1999?

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[JSUBison]

Oh good lord.

xlolx
Just throwing in some of those used up cliches some of the have-nots in the MVFC throw around.


Is that why the last time a meac team won a playoff game was like 1999?

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Post season success aside, isn't it true though?

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Oh good lord.

xlolx

[clenz]

xlolx
Just throwing in some of those used up cliches some of the have-nots in the MVFC throw around.



Post season success aside, isn't it true though?
Id that's the case then is true for every conference...

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[Wallace]

Should be
*Chatty
*EWU
*Fordham
*Jax St
*Liberty
*Morgan St
*NDSU
*SHSU
*SHU
*San Diego
*UNH
ILS
UNI
SDSU
CCU
BCU
EKU
UM
MSU
VU
JMU
UR/WM
SLU
SFA

[Bison56]

MEAC is a meat grinder. Anybody can beat anybody. No easy games, and you can't take a week off.

xeyebrowx

[RabidRabbit]

I'd say that Liberty's win of the AQ improved IN State's chances as a 7-5, since Syc's beat the AQ. Sycs end up with more good wins vs any other play-off last at-large competitor, plus FBS win. Only the WIU loss is "bad" yet WIU is a high SOS, GPI team (30th or so).

There will be few good choices better than the Sycs. They are light years better than B-C.

Bryant and Bucknell burst their own bubbles.

Does Coastal fall out of a seed without the perfect season and autobid?

If UNI wins, UNI looks like very solid option for seeds 7 or 8.

1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jax St
4) Nova
5) EWU
6) IL St
7) UNI
8) Chatty

[blackbeard]

Bryant.....just gave away a bid

[clenz]

I'd say that Liberty's win of the AQ improved IN State's chances as a 7-5, since Syc's beat the AQ. Sycs end up with more good wins vs any other play-off last at-large competitor, plus FBS win. Only the WIU loss is "bad" yet WIU is a high SOS, GPI team (30th or so).

There will be few good choices better than the Sycs. They are light years better than B-C.

Bryant and Bucknell burst their own bubbles.

Does Coastal fall out of a seed without the perfect season and autobid?

If UNI wins, UNI looks like very solid option for seeds 7 or 8.

1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jax St
4) Nova
5) EWU
6) IL St
7) UNI
8) Chatty
As long as opposite a trip to Fargo i don't care

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[WileECoyote06]

This. People underestimate the ability of the MEAC to get an undeserved 2nd

As much flack as AGSers give you chicken fans about your gaudy record. .you have the nerve to say this? Welp enjoy that #7 seed.

BTW, there are no undeserving teams in the playoffs. There may be great, good, and not so good teams, but no undeserving teams.

[dwtime]

Is Montana St. not now on the bubble as they are getting creamed by Montana, in my opinion they should be with an 8-4 record (essentially a 7-4 record + win over Black Hills State D2 I assume) only significant win is a five point victory over Idaho St. They would be on the bubble on my board.

[clenz]

As much flack as AGSers give you chicken fans about your gaudy record. .you have the nerve to say this? Welp enjoy that #7 seed.

BTW, there are no undeserving teams in the playoffs. There may be great, good, and not so good teams, but no undeserving teams.
False. There are most definitely undeserving teams that get in

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[LuckyKat]

SFA!

[smilo]

20120This is the way I see the bracket at the moment. Lots of regionalization and lots of rematches just to make it really realistic ;)

It would be very difficult to match up Stephen F. Austin with any non-conference team especially if both Montana's make it. If they don't, sure you could just send San Diego there like I have done to Bethune-Cookman (who also has no one in their area, but SHSU needs a non-conference opponent and they get in with the FBS win).

UR and YSU have the real negative of closing out with 3 losses, and the committee can use that to hold both of them out. Even if W&M loses, it is really difficult to find another opponent in the area. It works perfectly as is without both of them. If YSU makes it, then you have to pair them with JMU which then frees up Morgan State for Richmond. It really only would have made sense if both could make it which just isn't going to happen if they both close on L3 streaks. The only hope for just one of them would be for A+T to make it over BCU because then you can just match up UR/W&M with A+T and hold out Montana St (and send San Diego to SHSU instead). The first round would be even better geographically, but the second round would be worse with only 1 logical matchup that fits either NDSU or EWU (Montana/SDSU). If you pair San Diego up with MSU, you can basically guarantee an easy 2nd round travel. Plus, I'd bet there's more money from them plus big ticket sales for that 2nd round rematch.

ISU, Bucknell, and Bryant add nothing and CSU is just not good enough so really only the other 4 can shake up the picture IMO - mostly UR and YSU, but again, the committee has good reason to hold them out for quality reasons at L3 streaks and stick with something similar to what I posted.

First 4 out: SFA, UR, YSU, ISU-o
Next 4 out: Bucknell, NCAT, CSU, Bryant

(Ignore the below image which got cut off)

[centennial]

A second team from the MEAC for example would be undeserving. They are the 6th strongest DII league. They would be undeserving at a DII at large.
Here is the proof:
http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12545&s=262657
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&c=1&sub=262657

[smilo]

Is Montana St. not now on the bubble as they are getting creamed by Montana, in my opinion they should be with an 8-4 record (essentially a 7-4 record + win over Black Hills State D2 I assume) only significant win is a five point victory over Idaho St. They would be on the bubble on my board.

Completely agree - they have to be very similar to what William & Mary would be if they lose tonight. They have wins over 3 6-win teams but no playoff teams. Beat who they should but came just short vs. EWU. I don't know if Prukop would be ready for the 2nd round but I could easily see the committee giving them a 1st round cupcake if that's the plan and it's financially feasible (i.e. both Montana and Montana State bid more than SDSU so they would both host home games regardless). You create a sick rematch even if the resume doesn't warrant it.

[WileECoyote06]

False. There are most definitely undeserving teams that get in

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False right back at cha. There are ways to justify every berth that has occurred in the past, including the oft-mentioned South Carolina State inclusion. You may disagree with the committee's criteria; but their selections are justified; thus those teams are deserving.

[WileECoyote06]

A second team from the MEAC for example would be undeserving. They are the 6th strongest DII league. They would be undeserving at a DII at large.
Here is the proof:
http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=12545&s=262657
http://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2014&c=1&sub=262657

#1 The Committee has never indicated that they put as much stock in the Massey, GPI, AGS, or any other poll or index as we fans do.
#2 The MEAC may not get another team in this year; as the cluster-fluck at the top may be too much to overcome.
#3 However if a second MEAC team is chosen, they are deserving according to the criteria set forth by the committee. No matter what a bunch of fans say or think or rationalize, they are the ones who make the decision.

But hey carry-on. . no need to have this debate endlessly. I'm fine agreeing to disagree with folks.

[IBleedYellow]

#1 The Committee has never indicated that they put as much stock in the Massey, GPI, AGS, or any other poll or index as we fans do.
#2 The MEAC may not get another team in this year; as the cluster-fluck at the top may be too much to overcome.
#3 However if a second MEAC team is chosen, they are deserving according to the criteria set forth by the committee. No matter what a bunch of fans say or think or rationalize, they are the ones who make the decision.

But hey carry-on. . no need to have this debate endlessly. I'm fine agreeing to disagree with folks.
Did you listen to what Jim O'Day said on the Wedge the past two weeks?

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator

[clenz]

Did you listen to what Jim O'Day said on the Wedge the past two weeks?

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator
Clearly not.

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[kalm]

#1 The Committee has never indicated that they put as much stock in the Massey, GPI, AGS, or any other poll or index as we fans do.
#2 The MEAC may not get another team in this year; as the cluster-fluck at the top may be too much to overcome.
#3 However if a second MEAC team is chosen, they are deserving according to the criteria set forth by the committee. No matter what a bunch of fans say or think or rationalize, they are the ones who make the decision.

But hey carry-on. . no need to have this debate endlessly. I'm fine agreeing to disagree with folks.

Ok, so
List the MEAC's quality wins OOC.

[WileECoyote06]

Ok, so
List the MEAC's quality wins OOC.

I think you're getting the wrong idea from me on this topic. I do not personally think that the MEAC deserves an at-large bid. Nobody has a great out of conference win, save BCU with their FBS win. No MEAC team can claim a win over a playoff team from another conference, like BCU last year.

I said that every team that is awarded a berth is deserving, whether they're MEAC, SoCon, Northeast, OVC, CAA, Big Sky, or MVFC. I hope that clarifies things a bit.

[kalm]

I think you're getting the wrong idea from me on this topic. I do not personally think that the MEAC deserves an at-large bid. Nobody has a great out of conference win, save BCU with their FBS win. No MEAC team can claim a win over a playoff team from another conference, like BCU last year.

I said that every team that is awarded a berth is deserving, whether they're MEAC, SoCon, Northeast, OVC, CAA, Big Sky, or MVFC. I hope that clarifies things a bit.

No…it doesn't.

[kalm]

I could be mistaken, but if Poly wins tonight, I think they'll be the only bubble team with 3 wins over playoff teams, and two of them ranked.

That being said. I still think ISUb trumps them with wins over Liberty, UNI, and Ball State.

W&M has no wins over a ranked opponent or a playoff team so they are out if they lose.

Richmond would still have wins over Liberty and Nova and would still be on the bubble with a loss.

SFA has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

Interestingly enough, SELA also has no wins over ranked or playoff bound opponents.

YSU has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

ISUo has no wins over ranked and/or playoff bound opponents.

Food for thought.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Did you listen to what Jim O'Day said on the Wedge the past two weeks?

Sent from a TI-83+ Calculator


What did he say?

I didn't catch the play of it.

[centennial]

I could be mistaken, but if Poly wins tonight, I think they'll be the only bubble team with 3 wins over playoff teams, and two of them ranked.

That being said. I still think ISUb trumps them with wins over Liberty, UNI, and Ball State.

W&M has no wins over a ranked opponent or a playoff team so they are out if they lose.

Richmond would still have wins over Liberty and Nova and would still be on the bubble with a loss.

SFA has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

Interestingly enough, SELA also has no wins over ranked or playoff bound opponents.

YSU has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

ISUo has no wins over ranked and/or playoff bound opponents.

Food for thought.
Indiana State is clearly the best of the bubble, with FBS and 2 other good wins. Their loss to WIU does make things hard.

[Sycamore62]

I've been trying to find the wedge replay and it's not on my podcast downloadable content

[malibudude]

False. There are most definitely undeserving teams that get in

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Like maybe USD?

[clenz]

Like maybe USD?
Low hanging fruit, but yes

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[RabidRabbit]

Don't pick on the Pioneer schools. If not for them getting the auto-bid, there would be only 20 teams, and 10 at larges, rather than 13. Getting to the 11th auto-bid created more ops for the full schollie teams to get auto-bids. Plus whoever gets to Pioneer AQ pretty much is guaranteed into the 2nd round.

[clenz]

Don't pick on the Pioneer schools. If not for them getting the auto-bid, there would be only 20 teams, and 10 at larges, rather than 13. Getting to the 11th auto-bid created more ops for the full schollie teams to get auto-bids. Plus whoever gets to Pioneer AQ pretty much is guaranteed into the 2nd round.
The issue is no one actually believes those extra al births go to deserving teams

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[cpalum]

I could be mistaken, but if Poly wins tonight, I think they'll be the only bubble team with 3 wins over playoff teams, and two of them ranked.

That being said. I still think ISUb trumps them with wins over Liberty, UNI, and Ball State.

W&M has no wins over a ranked opponent or a playoff team so they are out if they lose.

Richmond would still have wins over Liberty and Nova and would still be on the bubble with a loss.

SFA has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

Interestingly enough, SELA also has no wins over ranked or playoff bound opponents.

YSU has one win over a ranked and playoff bound opponent.

ISUo has no wins over ranked and/or playoff bound opponents.

Food for thought.

There are two ways to look at Cal Poly...on on hand they lost to Davis and that makes them look pretty bad but you can also say that they have 7 D1 wins including wins over two top 15 teams. It would be difficult to say they are not in the mix after today's results.