11/18: GPI

[FargoBison]

The GPI Top 25 - 11/18/2014 (http://www.fcsinsider.com/news/articles/2014/224/gpi-rankings---nov-18/)
1. North Dakota State (1.71)
2T. Illinois State (3.86)
2T. Jacksonville State (3.86)
4. Coastal Carolina (4.71)
5. Northern Iowa (5.43)
6. New Hampshire (5.57)
7. South Dakota State (8.14)
8. Eastern Washington (8.29)
9. Villanova (8.86)
10. Chattanooga (9.86)
11T. Indiana State (12.00)
11T. Fordham (12.00)
13. Southeastern Louisiana (13.71)
14. Harvard (14.29)
15. Youngstown State (16.29)
16. Montana State (18.00)
17. Southern Illinois (18.29)
18. James Madison (19.57)
19. Sam Houston State (20.71)
20. Idaho State (20.86)
21. Montana (21.00)
22. Eastern Kentucky (21.57)
23. Liberty (24.00)
24. Missouri State (25.43)
25. Western Illinois (25.86)


In: James Madison, Montana. E Kentucky
Out: Richmond, SF Austin. McNeese St, Bryant


Conference Ranking
1. Missouri Valley Football Conference (16.34)
2. Big South Conference (38.12)
3. Big Sky Conference (41.22)
4. CAA Football (41.43)
5. Ohio Valley Conference (45.71)
6. Southland Conference (46.08)
7. Southern Conference (46.68)
8. Patriot League (53.92)
9. Northeast Conference (56.10)
10. Ivy League (59.77)
11. Independents (60.71)
12. Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (66.37)
13. Southwestern Athletic Conference (73.14)
14. Pioneer Football League (80.03)

[gobirds85]

It looks like the Pioneer League is posed to make a run. Watch out for the AQ coming out of this league.

[knucklehead]

Big South hanging tough. 2nd here and in almost every statistical category as well.

[citdog]

china

[Wallace]

Computer rankings:
Massey, Ashburn, Sagarin, Laz Index, Keeper, Self, Born.
Polls:
FCS Coaches, Sports Network.

[birdsflyhigh]

If Illinois State wins this Saturday, they will be 10-1 and co-champs of by far the best FCS conference (MVFC). The Redbirds are #2 in the GPI, #2 in the Massey composite, and they have played against the #9 toughest SOS in FCS. The lone loss on the road was to a UNI team that had to win out to make the playoffs.

The ISU special teams had a serious meltdown in that UNI game, and even at that the Redbirds were right in that game. When the FCS playoff committee goes about seeding teams, I really hope they seriously looked at Illinois State for the #2 seed. Think most will agree that the MVFC was tough-as-nails and then some throughout this season, and with a win against SIU the Redbirds will be MVFC co-champs along with NDSU.

Name me any other school, other than NDSU, that has had the amount of success ISU has had this season. IMHO the Redbirds should be considered for the #2 seed.

[Thumper 76]

I have a hard time seeing the committee to chose the #1 &#2 seeds from one conference because I think ndsu is still a lock for #1. Has the committee done that before? I'm thinking #3 or 4

[JayJ79]

I have a hard time seeing the committee to chose the #1 &#2 seeds from one conference because I think ndsu is still a lock for #1. Has the committee done that before? I'm thinking #3 or 4

which is sad, if true. teams are supposed to be evaluated on their own merits. not penalized just because others in their conference are just as strong.

[Thumper 76]

which is sad, if true. teams are supposed to be evaluated on their own merits. not penalized just because others in their conference are just as strong.

I'm not saying I agree with it, just how I think the committee will do it.

[RabidRabbit]

I understand the argument for the ILL St. However, UNH didn't lose to an FCS (assumes they win Sat), and are the CAA AQ. Whether a UNI loss but all the wins over other top 15 teams is more valued than undefeated Coastal Car. with low SOS should be seeded higher/lower.

I would make the case if GPI/Massey is more valued than human choices, then should have 3 or 4 MVFC teams (including Jackrabbits) seeded. I don't see that occurring.

Nobody but MVFC teams has more than 1 quality win. Every other non-MVFC team in the discussion for the last 5 slots has no quality wins, and at least one (frequently 2) losses.

IMHO, if Fordham doesn't beat Army they have no top 25 wins, and the only time they faced at top team (or weak FBS) was a L. Undeserving of a seed. Both UNI and ISU(B) have good wins, and really, even if both lose to Missouri St or WIU, are better choices than any other schools also. Likewise, SDSU has good wins and no bad losses (unless South Dakota gets the W). Even with a L, YSU would be 7-5, but other than win over SDSU, no quality wins, and still better than virtually any other 10th to 13th at-large candidate.

[taper]

IMHO, if Fordham doesn't beat Army they have no top 25 wins, and the only time they faced at top team (or weak FBS) was a L.
Army is terrible this year. Look at Massey or Sagarin, they wouldn't even be FCS top 25.

[kalm]

I understand the argument for the ILL St. However, UNH didn't lose to an FCS (assumes they win Sat), and are the CAA AQ. Whether a UNI loss but all the wins over other top 15 teams is more valued than undefeated Coastal Car. with low SOS should be seeded higher/lower.

I would make the case if GPI/Massey is more valued than human choices, then should have 3 or 4 MVFC teams (including Jackrabbits) seeded. I don't see that occurring.

Nobody but MVFC teams has more than 1 quality win. Every other non-MVFC team in the discussion for the last 5 slots has no quality wins, and at least one (frequently 2) losses.

IMHO, if Fordham doesn't beat Army they have no top 25 wins, and the only time they faced at top team (or weak FBS) was a L. Undeserving of a seed. Both UNI and ISU(B) have good wins, and really, even if both lose to Missouri St or WIU, are better choices than any other schools also. Likewise, SDSU has good wins and no bad losses (unless South Dakota gets the W). Even with a L, YSU would be 7-5, but other than win over SDSU, no quality wins, and still better than virtually any other 10th to 13th at-large candidate.

You're high. We have a similar resume to ISU and have wins against 4 ranked/and or top 25 Massey opponents with a close loss to Washington.

[taper]

The difference is EWU will probably get a top 4 seed. ISUr probably won't.

[jmrepak]

The difference is EWU will probably get a top 4 seed. ISUr probably won't.
I think the prevailing thought is they end up with a 5 seed or maybe 6. Top 4 seeds will be UNH, CCU, NDSU and Jax St. (Not in order).

EWU, Nova and ISUr are most likely in line for the next three and probably in that order with Fordham and Chatty battling it out for the final seed. Just my opinion on where things end up, but a loss by any of these teams this weekend throws the whole thing for a loop.

[Wallace]

I think the prevailing thought is they end up with a 5 seed or maybe 6. Top 4 seeds will be UNH, CCU, NDSU and Jax St. (Not in order).
EWU, Nova and ISUr are most likely in line for the next three and probably in that order with Fordham and Chatty battling it out for the final seed. Just my opinion on where things end up, but a loss by any of these teams this weekend throws the whole thing for a loop.
Predicting how the selection committee will screw it up is funny. UNH and CCU should not get top four seeds plus Fordham and Chatty (and maybe even Nova) will be getting a gift being seeded at all. The GPI is kind of a reality check for pollsters. xcoffeex

[BisonFan02]

Predicting how the selection committee will screw it up is funny. UNH and CCU should not get top four seeds plus Fordham and Chatty (and maybe even Nova) will be getting a gift being seeded at all. The GPI is kind of a reality check for pollsters. xcoffeex

Is it?

[dudeitsaid]

I understand the argument for the ILL St. However, UNH didn't lose to an FCS (assumes they win Sat), and are the CAA AQ. Whether a UNI loss but all the wins over other top 15 teams is more valued than undefeated Coastal Car. with low SOS should be seeded higher/lower.

I would make the case if GPI/Massey is more valued than human choices, then should have 3 or 4 MVFC teams (including Jackrabbits) seeded. I don't see that occurring.

Nobody but MVFC teams has more than 1 quality win. Every other non-MVFC team in the discussion for the last 5 slots has no quality wins, and at least one (frequently 2) losses.

IMHO, if Fordham doesn't beat Army they have no top 25 wins, and the only time they faced at top team (or weak FBS) was a L. Undeserving of a seed. Both UNI and ISU(B) have good wins, and really, even if both lose to Missouri St or WIU, are better choices than any other schools also. Likewise, SDSU has good wins and no bad losses (unless South Dakota gets the W). Even with a L, YSU would be 7-5, but other than win over SDSU, no quality wins, and still better than virtually any other 10th to 13th at-large candidate.

This, my friends, is conference homerism at it's finest. Funny that SDSU, who may lose in their rivalry game this weekend and likely be bumped entirely from the playoff field should be seeded above the majority of the playoff field.

Is it that (aside from UNH) ONLY the MVFC has quality wins because only the MVFC has quality teams to beat??? So Nova's wins against Fordham (a team in the seed discussion), JMU, and William and Mary are cupcakes? Jax St wins against EKU and Chatty might as well be against DIII teams? EWU plays against the Big Fluff conference, so of course, none of their their games should count as any good.

Keep up the solid work! It's extremely entertaining!

[Wallace]

Is it?
That's all you got, isn't it?

Teams that play mostly fluff schedules should not be considered for seeds.

[rokamortis]

Predicting how the selection committee will screw it up is funny. UNH and CCU should not get top four seeds plus Fordham and Chatty (and maybe even Nova) will be getting a gift being seeded at all. The GPI is kind of a reality check for pollsters. xcoffeex

"Ralph": CCU should not get a top four seed

Wait - I'm confused.

"GPI": 4 Coastal Carolina

So is the GPI a bad tool?

[gobirds85]

"Ralph": CCU should not get a top four seed

Wait - I'm confused.

"GPI": 4 Coastal Carolina

So is the GPI a bad tool?

I'm ok with this. Just as long as ISUr gets the seed associated with our GPI...and Massey. I will bet the house that we will not. The committee will give NDSU the #1 seed. And they should. With that they will drop ISUr to a 5-6 seed...if we are lucky. Of course, none of this matters if we do not beat the poodles on Saturday. Go BIRDS!!

[MarkCCU]

That's all you got, isn't it?

Teams that play mostly fluff schedules should not be considered for seeds.

Teams play who they can. Costs are a huge factor. Teams like Coastal, will have to have a heavy CAA OOC schedule. If we could get 1 game from the Big Sky or MVFC, that'd be wonderful. But again, costs. No longer can we get by with SoCon teams. And don't get me started on the MEAC teams. Why we continue to play them, I'll never understand.

If you have a 12-0 team NOT seeded, regardless of your opinion of the team, you should recognize that as bull****. Pure, Chinese made bull****.

[TypicalTribe]

Just to go through the motions again, here is the field that the GPI would indicate heading into the last week:

Autos - NDSU, UNH, Jax St, CCU, EWU, Chatty, Fordham, SHSU, Sacred Heart, NC A&T, San Diego
At-large - Ill St, UNI, SDSU, Nova, Indy St, SELA, YSU, Montana St, JMU, Idaho St, Montana, EKU, Liberty

Bubble:

William & Mary
Richmond
SFA
McNeese
Bryant
Bucknell

Not hard to figure that if YSU, Montana and/or Liberty lose, the W&M/Richmond winner grabs a spot.

[RabidRabbit]

Liberty only makes the play-offs if get the Big South AQ, which beating Coastal would make the Flames.

[dewey]

Teams play who they can. Costs are a huge factor. Teams like Coastal, will have to have a heavy CAA OOC schedule. If we could get 1 game from the Big Sky or MVFC, that'd be wonderful. But again, costs. No longer can we get by with SoCon teams. And don't get me started on the MEAC teams. Why we continue to play them, I'll never understand.

If you have a 12-0 team NOT seeded, regardless of your opinion of the team, you should recognize that as bull****. Pure, Chinese made bull****.

I agree that an undefeated CCU team should be seeded and it would be BS if they were not. However I do not think an undefeated CCU team should be seeded higher than NDSU, JSU or UNH due those teams strength of schedule and number of quality wins.

I think the seeds should be
1 NDSU
2 UNH
3 Jacksonville State
4. CCU
5 Eastern Washington
6. Illinois State
7. Villanova
8. Chattanooga

Dewey

[MarkCCU]

I agree that an undefeated CCU team should be seeded and it would be BS if they were not. However I do not think an undefeated CCU team should be seeded higher than NDSU, JSU or UNH due those teams strength of schedule and number of quality wins.

I think the seeds should be
1 NDSU
2 UNH
3 Jacksonville State
4. CCU
5 Eastern Washington
6. Illinois State
7. Villanova
8. Chattanooga

Dewey

That I can agree with.

[thebootfitter]

I agree that an undefeated CCU team should be seeded and it would be BS if they were not. However I do not think an undefeated CCU team should be seeded higher than NDSU, JSU or UNH due those teams strength of schedule and number of quality wins.

I think the seeds should be
1 NDSU
2 UNH
3 Jacksonville State
4. CCU
5 Eastern Washington
6. Illinois State
7. Villanova
8. Chattanooga

Dewey
I'm usually on board with your thoughts, Dewey, but if you are suggesting that UNH should be seeded highly because of their strength of schedule, I think you need to look more closely. If they are seeded that highly, it will be despite their relatively weak schedule. I'm not saying they won't be or shouldn't be seeded #2, but the SoS argument is not valid in my opinion. Per Sagarin and Massey, UNH's SoS is #64 and #43, respectively. CCU is #78 and #63, respectively. Out of over 120 teams. Pretty much middle of the road for both.

[Jason Svoboda]

Teams play who they can. Costs are a huge factor. Teams like Coastal, will have to have a heavy CAA OOC schedule. If we could get 1 game from the Big Sky or MVFC, that'd be wonderful. But again, costs. No longer can we get by with SoCon teams. And don't get me started on the MEAC teams. Why we continue to play them, I'll never understand.

If you have a 12-0 team NOT seeded, regardless of your opinion of the team, you should recognize that as bull****. Pure, Chinese made bull****.

If Indiana State can return a trip to Liberty, I don't want to hear anything about costs. Up until a couple years ago, we couldn't even recruit outside of a car ride because the school wouldn't reimburse coaches travel. We are the epitome of poor.

[dewey]

I'm usually on board with your thoughts, Dewey, but if you are suggesting that UNH should be seeded highly because of their strength of schedule, I think you need to look more closely. If they are seeded that highly, it will be despite their relatively weak schedule. I'm not saying they won't be or shouldn't be seeded #2, but the SoS argument is not valid in my opinion. Per Sagarin and Massey, UNH's SoS is #64 and #43, respectively. CCU is #78 and #63, respectively. Out of over 120 teams. Pretty much middle of the road for both.

I think UNH has 5 quality wins over Richmond, William & Mary, Albany (6-6 or 7-5 depending on this weekend), Delaware (6-6 assuming they lose o Villanova) and Maine (maybe). I would couple that with them being #1-2 in virtually every poll and being co conference champions from the CAA.

I think JSU has quality wins over Chattanooga, Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Illinois (maybe if they win they are 6-6), Tennessee State (maybe if they wint they are 6-6).

I think CCU has a quality win over Liberty (assuming they win this weekend) and maybe NC A&T and that is it.

Assuming UNH, Jacksonville State and CCU all win this weekend it will be tough to figure out who gets the higher seeds. Like you said UNH's average SoS is about 54 vs CCU's 70. However I think the number of quality wins is in favor of UNH.

Dewey

[TypicalTribe]

I think UNH has 5 quality wins over Richmond, William & Mary, Albany (6-6 or 7-5 depending on this weekend), Delaware (6-6 assuming they lose o Villanova) and Maine (maybe). I would couple that with them being #1-2 in virtually every poll and being co conference champions from the CAA.

I think CCU has a quality win over Liberty (assuming they win this weekend) and maybe NC A&T and that is it.

Dewey

So, Albany, Delaware and Maine are quality wins but none of the other Big South teams are? I think Charleston Southern and Presbyterian are ahead of the CAA teams in the computer rankings. Honestly, without JMU and Nova on the slate, UNH's schedule is pretty weak. Anyone doubt William & Mary would be 9-2 if they could have gotten Maine and Rhode Island instead of Villanova and JMU? Not trying to tear UNH down, just saying the CAA schedule has been awfully friendly since the road game at Richmond.