Playoff Seed Predictions

[Nova7]

1. North Dakota St
2. New Hampshire
3. Coastal Carolina
4. Jacksonville St
5. Eastern Wash
6. Villanova
7. Illinois St
8. Chattanooga

Great 3rd round match-ups that are not rematches (not discounting some teams like James Madison, UNI or Fordham breaking through) ....

New Hampshire v. Illinois St
Coastal Carolina v. Villanova
Jacksonville St. v. Eastern Wash

[FargoBison]

Chattanooga at NDSU?

Yes please!

[FargoBison]

As for predictions...

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. CCU
4. JSU
5. EWU
6. ISUR
7. Nova
8. Fordham if they beat Army...Chatty if they don't

[HailSzczur]

1. UNH
2. NDSU
3. CCU
4. JSU
5. NOVA
6. ISU
7. EWU
8. Fordham

Assuming all 8 win this weekend. Personally I think NDSU should be #1, just predicting what we'll see actually happen

[JayJ79]

I can understand being excited about the playoffs, but to go so far as to "project" "seed" over it is a bit much, and frankly rather gross.

[JaxSinfonian]

Great 3rd round match-ups that are not rematches (not discounting some teams like James Madison, UNI or Fordham breaking through) ....

New Hampshire v. Illinois St
Coastal Carolina v. Villanova
Jacksonville St. v. Eastern Wash

That would be a rematch of last-year's quarterfinals. I would love to see that, especially since it would be at our place this time in your projection.

[blackbeard]

I'll throw in my $.02

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. Villanova
4. JSU
5. CCU
6. ISU
7. EWU
8. Fordham

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The Fordham-Army game is probably a toss-up. Nebrich's status for the game is uncertain at this time. Army, while pretty bad, does have 3 FBS wins. I think Army is the slight favorite on senior day at Michie.

[Grizzlies82]

1. UNH
2. NDSU
3. CCU
4. JSU
5. NOVA
6. ISU
7. EWU
8. Fordham

Assuming all 8 win this weekend. Personally I think NDSU should be #1, just predicting what we'll see actually happen

I would guess if they win, Coastal will be rewarded with either #1 or #2 for going undefeated.
I'll let you other folks decide which team gets bumped to #3.

[frozennorth]

Unh
ccu
ndsu
ewu
Nova
jsu
isu-r
fordham or chattownmocs

[kingranch]

Unh
ccu
ndsu
ewu
Nova
jsu
isu-r
fordham or chattownmocs

Sioux Fans Don't Have Enough Knowledge On Seeding To Post Predictions If You Think Ccu And Unh Are Going To Be Seeded Higher ThAn Ndsu You're high

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

As for predictions...

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. CCU
4. JSU
5. EWU
6. ISUR
7. Nova
8. Fordham if they beat Army...Chatty if they don't



This looks good.

[Mattymc727]

All teams winning Saturday, I too think the committee will reward UNH. They always have and always will. Not sure if its mutual respect or whatever it is, but UNH always fares well. I dont think its right but im not complaining either...

If it were up to me, I would put NDSU, CCU, UNH, and JSU in that order.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

All teams winning Saturday, I too think the committee will reward UNH. They always have and always will. Not sure if its mutual respect or whatever it is, but UNH always fares well. I dont think its right but im not complaining either...

If it were up to me, I would put NDSU, CCU, UNH, and JSU in that order.



NDSU, if they win on Saturday, should be the #1. Better resume than any other team and a FBS win over a Big 12 team.

[Mattymc727]

NDSU, if they win on Saturday, should be the #1. Better resume than any other team and a FBS win over a Big 12 team.

Agreed

[kalm]

1) NDSU

Quality wins: Iowa State, Montana, SIU, Indiana State, SDSU
Loss: UNI

2) UNH

Quality wins: Richmond, W&M, Delaware
Loss: Toledo

3) EWU
Quality wins: SHSU, Montana State, Idaho State, Montana
Losses: Washington, NAU

4) JSU
Quality wins: Chattanooga, EKU
Loss: Michigan State

5) Illinois State
Quality wins: SDSU, Indiana State, YSU
Loss: UNI

6) CCU
Quality wins: SCSU, Presby, CSU, NCA&T
Loss: 0

7) Nova
Quality wins: JMU, W&M, Fordham, Albany
Losses: Syracuse, Richmond

8) Indiana State
Quality wins: Ball State, Liberty, UNI, YSU
Losses: Indiana, NDSU, Illinois State, SDSU

I based quality wins on 6-5 records but that's being VERY generous when it comes to CCU. Looking at the schedules of the 4 "quality" teams they beat, you could make a case that they don't really have any quality wins.

I put EWU at 3 because 1) the Washington loss gets tossed out comparing us to ISU who didn't play an FBS. 2) More quality wins than JSU against stronger competition (I realize EIU got the #2 last year but they also beat San Diego State), 3) The one FCS loss we had was by one point on the road to a decent team without Vernon Adams. As mentioned in last week's FCS Wedge, injuries are taken into consideration. 4) I'm a homer :D but I can see justifications for rearranging 2-5.

[Nova09]

1) NDSU

Quality wins: Iowa State, Montana, SIU, Indiana State, SDSU
Loss: UNI

2) UNH

Quality wins: Richmond, W&M, Delaware
Loss: Toledo

3) EWU
Quality wins: SHSU, Montana State, Idaho State, Montana
Losses: Washington, NAU

4) JSU
Quality wins: Chattanooga, EKU
Loss: Michigan State

5) Illinois State
Quality wins: SDSU, Indiana State, YSU
Loss: UNI

6) CCU
Quality wins: SCSU, Presby, CSU, NCA&T
Loss: 0

7) Nova
Quality wins: JMU, W&M
Losses: Syracuse, Richmond

8) Indiana State
Quality wins: Ball State, Liberty, UNI, YSU
Losses: Indiana, NDSU, Illinois State, SDSU

I based quality wins on 6-5 records but that's being VERY generous when it comes to CCU. Looking at the schedules of the 4 "quality" teams they beat, you could make a case that they don't really have any quality wins.

I put EWU at 3 because 1) the Washington loss gets tossed out comparing us to ISU who didn't play an FBS. 2) More quality wins than JSU against stronger competition (I realize EIU got the #2 last year but they also beat San Diego State), 3) The one FCS loss we had was by one point on the road to a decent team without Vernon Adams. As mentioned in last week's FCS Wedge, injuries are taken into consideration. 4) I'm a homer :D but I can see justifications for rearranging 2-5.

Forgetting Nova thrashed Fordham? Also Albany would meet your metric of 6-5. And I know it is not what you were doing in this post but if Nova were to win they would add Delaware, who is on UNH's list as quality.

[kalm]

Forgetting Nova thrashed Fordham? Also Albany would meet your metric of 6-5. And I know it is not what you were doing in this post but if Nova were to win they would add Delaware, who is on UNH's list as quality.

Fixed, thx!

That might move Nova ahead of JSU and CCU.

[Nova09]

Prediction:

1. NDSU
2/3. Coastal/UNH don't know the order
4. JSU
5/6/7. EWU/ISUr/Nova don't know the order
8. Fordham if they win, Chatt if Fordham loses while Mocs win, no idea if both lose

What I'd like to see with the question marks:

UNH 3, Nova 6 for possible CAA matchup we didn't get, ISUr 5 for possible MVFC we didn't get

[rokamortis]

Prediction:

1. NDSU
2/3. Coastal/UNH don't know the order
4. JSU
5/6/7. EWU/ISUr/Nova don't know the order
8. Fordham if they win, Chatt if Fordham loses while Mocs win, no idea if both lose

What I'd like to see with the question marks:

UNH 3, Nova 6 for possible CAA matchup we didn't get, ISUr 5 for possible MVFC we didn't get

I see it this same way too, if I had to submit a response the only change I'd make to yours is ISUr / JSU for 4/5. When I think about it I see 5 teams that could be considered for the top 5 spots. NDSU, UNH, CCU, JSU, and ISUr all could be considered for the 1-5 spots provided all win this weekend. There are cases to be made for and against each team plus we have no idea what the committee truly values when making the final decision.

[Sycamore62]

8) Indiana State
Quality wins: Ball State, Liberty, UNI, YSU
Losses: Indiana, NDSU, Illinois State, SDSU



I'd love this except I just cant see it happening. Hell, I'm not sold they can win against WIU to seal the deal. maybe I'm to pessimistic.

[kalm]

I'd love this except I just cant see it happening. Hell, I'm not sold they can win against WIU to seal the deal. maybe I'm to pessimistic.

It's hard picking the 8 but you have really good wins and that should put you ahead of Chatty and Fordham.

[Sycamore62]

It's hard picking the 8 but you have really good wins and that should put you ahead of Chatty and Fordham.

UNI could have an argument. It would be them being red hot with a win over NDSU vs ISUb with a FBS win (getting less impressive by the hour), head to head win and winning 4 of 5 to end the season (God willing)

these all vs everyone else that wants a seed

It might come down to needing to dominate on saturday.

[kalm]

UNI could have an argument. It would be them being red hot with a win over NDSU vs ISUb with a FBS win (getting less impressive by the hour), head to head win and winning 4 of 5 to end the season (God willing)

these all vs everyone else that wants a seed

It might come down to needing to dominate on saturday.

I agree. The head to head might get trumped by UNI's momentum.

[kalm]

Looking further into schedules, UNH might not be a lock for #2. Richmond or W&M will have another loss and if Nova beats UD this weekend, UNH will have one win against a playoff and/or ranked opponent.

[dewey]

1) NDSU

Quality wins: Iowa State, Montana, SIU, Indiana State, SDSU
Loss: UNI

I based quality wins on 6-5 records but that's being VERY generous when it comes to CCU. Looking at the schedules of the 4 "quality" teams they beat, you could make a case that they don't really have any quality wins.

I put EWU at 3 because 1) the Washington loss gets tossed out comparing us to ISU who didn't play an FBS. 2) More quality wins than JSU against stronger competition (I realize EIU got the #2 last year but they also beat San Diego State), 3) The one FCS loss we had was by one point on the road to a decent team without Vernon Adams. As mentioned in last week's FCS Wedge, injuries are taken into consideration. 4) I'm a homer :D but I can see justifications for rearranging 2-5.

If we are accounting for this weeks win I would add Youngstown State to the list of quality wins. Youngstown State is 7-4 and ranked #19 in the current AGS poll.

Great job putting this together!

Dewey

[thebootfitter]

6) CCU
Quality wins: SCSU, Presby, CSU, NCA&T
Loss: 0
Your logic makes sense to me, but I can't see the committee seeding an undefeated team this low. Sam Houston didn't have the strongest of schedules in 2011 when they were given the #1 seed. Probably stronger than CCU's this year, but I still think there's a precedent to award undefeated teams with a high seed, even with an unimpressive schedule.

[Sycamore62]

Your logic makes sense to me, but I can't see the committee seeding an undefeated team this low. Sam Houston didn't have the strongest of schedules in 2011 when they were given the #1 seed. Probably stronger than CCU's this year, but I still think there's a precedent to award undefeated teams with a high seed, even with an unimpressive schedule.

I agree with this. those zeros speak volumes. AND I KNOW ZEROS

[JayJ79]

I can understand being excited about the playoffs, but to go so far as to "project" "seed" over it is a bit much, and frankly rather gross.

okay, I must have totally misread "predictions" as "projections" last night.
(either that or it has been edited since then). either way, it was a dumb joke on my part

[Fear the Bird]

Looking further into schedules, UNH might not be a lock for #2. Richmond or W&M will have another loss and if Nova beats UD this weekend, UNH will have one win against a playoff and/or ranked opponent.

This part is completely irrelvant to your point - even if Delaware beats Nova they will neither be ranked nor make the playoffs.

[WileECoyote06]

Looking further into schedules, UNH might not be a lock for #2. Richmond or W&M will have another loss and if Nova beats UD this weekend, UNH will have one win against a playoff and/or ranked opponent.

Yep. I was going to post the same thing earlier today. This may make UNH drop as low as 4. Being undefeated against FCS helps, but not enough to jump CCU or Jacksonville State.

[kalm]

This part is completely irrelvant to your point - even if Delaware beats Nova they will neither be ranked nor make the playoffs.

Delaware is one of three teams with a winning record that UNH has beat. Their loss would further diminish UNH's resume.

Hope this helps ya.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Chatty will not be a seed. What is everyone smoking?

[Milktruck74]

Chatty will not be a seed. What is everyone smoking?

I'm good with not having a week off to get cold. Personally I'd rather host a first round and by some crazy chance get to go get another crack at Jax State....Knocking them out of the playoffs in front of a bunch of chicken farmers in a one horse town is fine by me.....(the ribbing aside, I really do like those guys, they are fun to have a beer with!).

[FargoBison]

Chatty will not be a seed. What is everyone smoking?

Somebody has to get the 8 seed. If Fordham falls to Army you are looking at Chatty, SLU and probably UNI. I don't really see the committee giving the MVFC three seeds and Chatty doesn't really have any bad losses like SLU has.

[Mattymc727]

Delaware is one of three teams with a winning record that UNH has beat. Their loss would further diminish UNH's resume.

Hope this helps ya.

Dartmouth, Richmond, and W&M will all finish with winning records. If Albany beats SBU, they will also.

[dwtime]

Delaware is one of three teams with a winning record that UNH has beat. Their loss would further diminish UNH's resume.

Hope this helps ya.

And then you have Jacksonville squeaking one over D2 West Alabama and that along with a weak conference should diminish their resume.

[kalm]

And then you have Jacksonville squeaking one over D2 West Alabama and that along with a weak conference should diminish their resume.

Jacksonville State, and yes, I think it does.

IMO, NDSU is the only rick solid 1 or two.

[achrist70]

I think that the first 7 are pretty easy to figure out if they all win on Saturday with North Dakota St, New Hampshire, Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville St, Eastern Wash, Villanova, and Illinois St

After that for the 8th
Fordham probably gets it with a win over Army
If Fordham loses in my mind it comes down to Chattanooga, UNI, SE Louisiana, and Montana State I don't think that the Mocs are assured that spot just because they really have no good wins, UNI has beaten two teams that will get a seed, SE Louisiana is kind of in the same boat as Chatt, nothing outstanding for wins, and Montana State I really think would be a better 9-3 than either SLU or Chatt, but are ranked lower.

Really when it comes down to it UNI would have the most impressive resume, just with 1 more loss, and yes I know there is a bias there.

[clenz]

I think that the first 7 are pretty easy to figure out if they all win on Saturday with North Dakota St, New Hampshire, Coastal Carolina, Jacksonville St, Eastern Wash, Villanova, and Illinois St

After that for the 8th
Fordham probably gets it with a win over Army
If Fordham loses in my mind it comes down to Chattanooga, UNI, SE Louisiana, and Montana State I don't think that the Mocs are assured that spot just because they really have no good wins, UNI has beaten two teams that will get a seed, SE Louisiana is kind of in the same boat as Chatt, nothing outstanding for wins, and Montana State I really think would be a better 9-3 than either SLU or Chatt, but are ranked lower.

Really when it comes down to it UNI would have the most impressive resume, just with 1 more loss, and yes I know there is a bias there.
I would rather not have seed and get into the other side of the bracket of ndsu

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[MarkCCU]

Looking further into schedules, UNH might not be a lock for #2. Richmond or W&M will have another loss and if Nova beats UD this weekend, UNH will have one win against a playoff and/or ranked opponent.

This. I was going to post something similar. UNH's final ranking is based off two games: Their game with Maine and the #21 Spiders vs #22 Tribe game. A lost at that game will have to be considered. They have to hope for Richmond to win. Coastal is in a bit of the same boat, with NC A&T beating NC Central (which I expect them to win).

I can easily see UNH dropping 1 spot after NDSU, CCU and Jacksonville winning this weekend.

Having said that, Any Given Saturday and Liberty is travelling to Conway looking for blood.

[Sycamore62]

I would rather not have seed and get into the other side of the bracket of ndsu

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk


Dibs on this

[Cocky]

And then you have Jacksonville squeaking one over D2 West Alabama and that along with a weak conference should diminish their resume.
You must not have watched the game? It was 45-14 in the fourth before we cleared the bench.

[UNH72Plus]

Dartmouth, Richmond, and W&M will all finish with winning records. If Albany beats SBU, they will also.

And don't forget that UNH played a bowl eligible Toledo who is currently 6-4, while Coastal has played only FCS teams.

As I just posted elsewhere, I took a look at the strength of teams UNH's opponents played versus the strength of the teams that Coastal's opponents played. UNH's FCS opponents have lost a total of 77 games as of last Saturday. Of those 77 losses, 52 were to FBS teams or teams currently in the TSN top 25. Coastal's opponents have lost 70 games, of which only 27 were against FBS or top 25 teams. Using the AGS poll UNH's opponents drop to 50 losses against FBS or top 25 teams (Richmond dropped out of the top 25, but Sacred Heart is #24), and Coastal opponents stay at 27. The bottom line is UNH's opponents had "better losses" (if there is such a thing) than Coastal's opponents.

[MarkCCU]

And don't forget that UNH played a bowl eligible Toledo who is currently 6-4, while Coastal has played only FCS teams.

As I just posted elsewhere, I took a look at the strength of teams UNH's opponents played versus the strength of the teams that Coastal's opponents played. UNH's FCS opponents have lost a total of 77 games as of last Saturday. Of those 77 losses, 52 were to FBS teams or teams currently in the TSN top 25. Coastal's opponents have lost 70 games, of which only 27 were against FBS or top 25 teams. Using the AGS poll UNH's opponents drop to 50 losses against FBS or top 25 teams (Richmond dropped out of the top 25, but Sacred Heart is #24), and Coastal opponents stay at 27. The bottom line is UNH's opponents had "better losses" (if there is such a thing) than Coastal's opponents.
So, UNH opponents have lost 77 games (where 52 of those losses were paid, for sure losses to the FBS) vice CCU's 70 (27 against FBS) and that's good? You're bragging that you scheduled a for sure loss. Tell me, out of all the FBS teams played by your opponents, how many won?

Yes, keep in mind that Coastal didn't schedule a loss against an Out of Division opponent. What a weak, ****ing argument.

The FCS is 8-94(96?) against the FBS this year. Overall the FBS is 2028-423-18. (.824)

So, really, who cares if we schedule and play a FBS team?

[Mattymc727]

So, UNH opponents have lost 77 games (where 52 of those losses were paid, for sure losses to the FBS) vice CCU's 70 (27 against FBS) and that's good? You're bragging that you scheduled a for sure loss. Tell me, out of all the FBS teams played by your opponents, how many won?

Yes, keep in mind that Coastal didn't schedule a loss against an Out of Division opponent. What a weak, ****ing argument.

The FCS is 8-94(96?) against the FBS. So, really, who cares if we schedule and play a FBS team?

52 of those losses were to either FBS teams OR FCS top 25 teams. 27 of CCU's opponents losses were to FBS teams OR FCS top 25 losses. Very few of those 52 and 27 were paid losses to FBS teams.

[RabidRabbit]

From Kalm -

1) NDSU

Quality wins: Iowa State, Montana, SIU, Indiana State, SDSU
Loss: UNI

2) UNH

Quality wins: Richmond, W&M, Delaware
Loss: Toledo

3) EWU
Quality wins: SHSU, Montana State, Idaho State, Montana
Losses: Washington, NAU

4) JSU
Quality wins: Chattanooga, EKU
Loss: Michigan State

5) Illinois State
Quality wins: SDSU, Indiana State, YSU
Loss: UNI

6) CCU
Quality wins: SCSU, Presby, CSU, NCA&T
Loss: 0

7) Nova
Quality wins: JMU, W&M, Fordham, Albany
Losses: Syracuse, Richmond

8) Indiana State
Quality wins: Ball State, Liberty, UNI, YSU
Losses: Indiana, NDSU, Illinois State, SDSU

I based quality wins on 6-5 records but that's being VERY generous when it comes to CCU. Looking at the schedules of the 4 "quality" teams they beat, you could make a case that they don't really have any quality wins.


RR thoughts - Expanding that to the top 16 GPI (sans Harvard, non participant) for choices

Chattanooga -
Quality Wins - Samford, W.Car, Wofford. Same thoughts as CCU quality wins.
Losses - Central MI, Tennessee, and Jax St in OT.

Fordham -
Quality Wins - Bucknell
Losses - Villanova


Southeastern LA-
Quality Wins - McNeese, UCA, NW St.
Losses - Tulane, SFA
Bad L - SEMO

UNI -
Good Wins - NDSU, IL St.
Losses - Iowa, Hawaii, SDSU, IN St.

SDSU -
Good Wins - UNI, IN St.
Losses - Missouri, NDSU, IL St, YSU

YSU -
Good Wins - SDSU, SIU
Losses - IL St, In St (NDSU), Illinois
Bad L - WIU

Based on the full list

Seeds (Prediction)
1) NDSU - Yes one FCS Loss, but domination in other 10 games (likely 11 after Saturday) + Iowa St W.
2) UNH - No FCS losses, and unbeaten in the CAA.
3) Coastal Car. - No FCS losses #2 rated conference. (Tumble to #7 if fall to Liberty for the Big South auto-bid).
4) Jax St. - No FCS losses, and wins over another conference champ.
5) IL St - Co Champ of #1 FCS conference
6) EWU - Loss to NAU w/o VA moves to here.
7) Nova - Two close losses.
8) Chatty - 2 FBS games really clobber record, which is pretty good besides.

[MarkCCU]

52 of those losses were to either FBS teams OR FCS top 25 teams. 27 of CCU's opponents losses were to FBS teams OR FCS top 25 losses. Very few of those 52 and 27 were paid losses to FBS teams.
Yeah, Sorry. I misread that. :)


Liberty beat AppState
Charleston So has a "good win" against Vanderbilt and will lose to Georgia this week
Gardner Webb lost to Wake Forest
Presby lost to Northern Illinois and Ole Miss

So the Big South is 1-5 against the FBS. To me, losing to someone that you have zero chance of beating, is a poor indicator. If you are going to look at it, however, give Charleston So. credit for holding Vandy to 1 point. Also, Vandy didn't score a single point in the 2nd half.

The FBS argument just seems weak to me.

[Mattymc727]

Liberty beat AppState
Charleston So has a "good win" against Vanderbilt and will lose to Georgia this week
Gardner Webb lost to Wake Forest
Presby lost to Northern Illinois and Ole Miss

So the Big South is 1-5 against the FBS. To me, losing to someone that you have zero chance of beating, is a poor indicator. If you are going to look at it, however, give Charleston So. credit for holding Vandy to 1 point. Also, Vandy didn't score a single point in the 2nd half.

The FBS argument just seems weak to me.

I understand that, and I agree. Hell, UNH losing to Toledo should mean absolutely nothing compared to CCU's undefeated season. But the numbers 72plus used included losses to FCS top 25 teams, which add legitimacy to SOS, IMO.

[FargoBison]

8th Seed Power Rankings...

1. Fordham...Beat Army I think it is their's for the taking
2. Chatty...Beat Furman and hope Fordham falls
3. Montana State...Make a big statement against the Griz and hope either Fordham/Chatty lose or perhaps they can edge out Chatty.
4. SLU...Lions have a tougher road, that SEMO loss was not good and no quality wins. They could be a conference champ though and that is worth something.
5. UNI...Maybe they committee will get amnesia and forget they have already seeded NDSU and Illinois State. Likely too many losses but no team in the FCS has better wins against FCS opponents.

[UNH72Plus]

RabidRabbit

If you're giving Nova a quality win for beating Albany how about UNH's win? The Cats were pummeling Albany 42-3 well into the 4th quarter, after pulling the starters at half time, when Albany scored 3 TDs against the 2nd and 3rd teams. Also, how about UNH's win over 7-2 Dartmouth? I realize we're talking about the Ivy League, but a 7-2 Dartmouth should count as much as a 6-5 Presby and we did win 52-19.

And one correction, Coastal's opponents had 71 losses to FBS and top 25 teams, I misses Northern Illinois.

[MarkCCU]

RabidRabbit

If you're giving Nova a quality win for beating Albany how about UNH's win? The Cats were pummeling Albany 42-3 well into the 4th quarter, after pulling the starters at half time, when Albany scored 3 TDs against the 2nd and 3rd teams. Also, how about UNH's win over 7-2 Dartmouth? I realize we're talking about the Ivy League, but a 7-2 Dartmouth should count as much as a 6-5 Presby and we did win 52-19.

And one correction, Coastal's opponents had 71 losses to FBS and top 25 teams, I misses Northern Illinois.

I had to look up N. Illinois. xlolx

[kalm]

I understand that, and I agree. Hell, UNH losing to Toledo should mean absolutely nothing compared to CCU's undefeated season. But the numbers 72plus used included losses to FCS top 25 teams, which add legitimacy to SOS, IMO.

Does anyone think NDSU, ISUr, UNH, Nova, and EWU would not go undefeated with CCU's schedule? Or 9-1 with JSU's?

[Sycamore62]

8th Seed Power Rankings...

1. Fordham...Beat Army I think it is their's for the taking
2. Chatty...Beat Furman and hope Fordham falls
3. Montana State...Make a big statement against the Griz and hope either Fordham/Chatty lose or perhaps they can edge out Chatty.
4. SLU...Lions have a tougher road, that SEMO loss was not good and no quality wins. They could be a conference champ though and that is worth something.
5. UNI...Maybe they committee will get amnesia and forget they have already seeded NDSU and Illinois State. Likely too many losses but no team in the FCS has better wins against FCS opponents.

#5. So, after the AQ we dont look at conferences except for seeds?

[RabidRabbit]

RabidRabbit

If you're giving Nova a quality win for beating Albany how about UNH's win? The Cats were pummeling Albany 42-3 well into the 4th quarter, after pulling the starters at half time, when Albany scored 3 TDs against the 2nd and 3rd teams. Also, how about UNH's win over 7-2 Dartmouth? I realize we're talking about the Ivy League, but a 7-2 Dartmouth should count as much as a 6-5 Presby and we did win 52-19.

And one correction, Coastal's opponents had 71 losses to FBS and top 25 teams, I misses Northern Illinois.

No problem. That portion was actually a cut-n-paste from Kalm's post

[Sycamore62]

Does anyone think NDSU, ISUr, UNH, Nova, and EWU would not go undefeated with CCU's schedule? Or 9-1 with JSU's?

I think its possible that NDSU, ISUr, UNI(at their present level), SDSU(with no injured QB) and ISUb(homer bias) could

[FargoBison]

Does anyone think NDSU, ISUr, UNH, Nova, and EWU would not go undefeated with CCU's schedule? Or 9-1 with JSU's?

I think I could roll off 20 FCS teams that could go undefeated with CCU's schedule.

[FargoBison]

#5. So, after the AQ we dont look at conferences except for seeds?

A computer would put UNI in the top 8, but people with biases I doubt it. UNI has four losses and that is all the excuse the committee will need to seed a school from another conference.

[Sycamore62]

A computer would put UNI in the top 8, but a people with biases I doubt it. UNI has four losses and that is all the excuse the committee will need to seed a school from another conference.

agreed. has 1 conference ever had 3 seeds

[clenz]

agreed. has 1 conference ever had 3 seeds
Not a truly fair way to look at it as the field was only 16 just a couple years ago.

[Sycamore62]

Not a truly fair way to look at it as the field was only 16 just a couple years ago.

Ya, didnt they only seed 4 when it was 20?

[FargoBison]

Ya, didnt they only seed 4 when it was 20?
They seeded 5 when it was 20.

Sent from my A0001

[Winindy]

I think I could roll off 20 FCS teams that could go undefeated with CCU's schedule.

I would agree with that. However, if you are going to look at things logically, it doesn't mean that CCU isn't a good team that deserves a high seed. Last years run made them legitimate in my eyes.

I wrote them off last year. I stopped crapping on CCU when they went to Montana and beat them in the cold. I think they would have had a tough time with EWU and Towson and probably could have knocked off UNH in a toss-up, but no one was beating the Bison last year.

[FargoBison]

I would agree with that. However, if you are going to look at things logically, it doesn't mean that CCU isn't a good team that deserves a high seed. Last years run made them legitimate in my eyes.

I wrote them off last year. I stopped crapping on CCU when they went to Montana and beat them in the cold. I think they would have had a tough time with EWU and Towson and probably could have knocked off UNH in a toss-up, but no one was beating the Bison last year.

They are a solid team, I have them ranked 5th despite their schedule. It is really hard to say though where they fit among the top 6-7 teams.

I am interested in how their game with Liberty goes, the Flames might be their toughest opponent yet.

[CasualFan]

Someone educate me about Strength of Schedule. When calculating for Coastal, does it look at CCU's opponents records overall, or does it remove their loss to CCU?

[MarkCCU]

They are a solid team, I have them ranked 5th despite their schedule. It is really hard to say though where they fit among the top 6-7 teams.

I am interested in how their game with Liberty goes, the Flames might be their toughest opponent yet.

This Saturday will be a difficult game, no doubt. Woodrum (if he plays) is an incredible QB. Looking at the two teams, statisically, we are close. If it's not Coastal in the lead, it's Liberty, for the most part.


Liberty leads the conference in RECEPTIONS, Interceptions, PUNTING, RECEIVE YDS/GAME, FIELD GOALS/GAME, SCORING (KICK), and FIELD GOAL PCT .

Coastal leads the conference in Rushing, Passing, Total Offense, Kick Return, Scoring (Game), Scoring (TDs), PAT kicking %, Tackles per game, forced fumbles, fumbles recovered

[Cocky]

My seeds:

1) UNI - two quality wins NDSU, ISUr
2) Villanova - one quality win over highest ranked quality win Fordham
3) JSU - one quality win over next highest ranked quality win UTC
4) UNH - no quality wins, no FCS losses but highest ranked
5) CCU - no quality wins, no FCS losses next highest ranked
6) NDSU - no quality wins, one FCS loss but highest ranked...
7) EWU - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
8) ISUr - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
9) Fordham - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
10) UTC - no quality wins, one FCS loss lowest ranking of ten

Quality win must be against a top ten AGS ranked team.
NDSU and ISUr have the best losses against No. 1 UNI, then Fordham against No. 2 Villanova and last UTC against No. 3 JSU. EWU has the only loss not against a top ten ranked team.
I guess EWU could be drop to ten.

[X-Factor]

My seeds:

1) UNI - two quality wins NDSU, ISUr
2) Villanova - one quality win over highest ranked quality win Fordham
3) JSU - one quality win over next highest ranked quality win UTC
4) UNH - no quality wins, no FCS losses but highest ranked
5) CCU - no quality wins, no FCS losses next highest ranked
6) NDSU - no quality wins, one FCS loss but highest ranked...
7) EWU - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
8) ISUr - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
9) Fordham - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
10) UTC - no quality wins, one FCS loss lowest ranking of ten

Quality win must be against a top ten AGS ranked team.
NDSU and ISUr have the best losses against No. 1 UNI, then Fordham against No. 2 Villanova and last UTC against No. 3 JSU. EWU has the only loss not against a top ten ranked team.
I guess EWU could be drop to ten.
Come on Cocky, you seriously gonna put UTC that low?

[dwtime]

My seeds:

1) UNI - two quality wins NDSU, ISUr
2) Villanova - one quality win over highest ranked quality win Fordham
3) JSU - one quality win over next highest ranked quality win UTC
4) UNH - no quality wins, no FCS losses but highest ranked
5) CCU - no quality wins, no FCS losses next highest ranked
6) NDSU - no quality wins, one FCS loss but highest ranked...
7) EWU - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
8) ISUr - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
9) Fordham - no quality wins, one FCS loss next highest ranked
10) UTC - no quality wins, one FCS loss lowest ranking of ten

Quality win must be against a top ten AGS ranked team.
NDSU and ISUr have the best losses against No. 1 UNI, then Fordham against No. 2 Villanova and last UTC against No. 3 JSU. EWU has the only loss not against a top ten ranked team.
I guess EWU could be drop to ten.

So you put Nova, a CAA at large team ahead of UNH the CAA conference champion (assuming of course both Nova and UNH win Sat)?

[JayJ79]

A computer would put UNI in the top 8, but people with biases I doubt it.

leave the committee's sexual orientation out of it!

[Cocky]

Come on Cocky, you seriously gonna put UTC that low?
Give me long enough and I can probably come up with some crazy reasoning to make them No. 1.

[Cocky]

So you put Nova, a CAA at large team ahead of UNH the CAA conference champion (assuming of course both Nova and UNH win Sat)?
Heck UNI is 1 over two teams ranked ahead of them in the MVC.

[dwtime]

You must not have watched the game? It was 45-14 in the fourth before we cleared the bench.
JSU was tied after 1, up 10 at the half and up 11 at the end of the game. Not a blowout in my book against a West Alabama team with spectacular wins over Stillman College, Concordia College, Shorter? and Mississippi College......

[Cocky]

JSU was tied after 1, up 10 at the half and up 11 at the end of the game. Not a blowout in my book against a West Alabama team with spectacular wins over Stillman College, Concordia College, Shorter? and Mississippi College......
I guess you also noticed we were playing our back up QB in the 2nd qt?

[dwtime]

I guess you also noticed we were playing our back up QB in the 2nd qt?

We played our backup quarterback for most of the season......

[birdsflyhigh]

If we list teams with the most top 20 wins, then here are the current AGS top 10 teams and how they fared against teams currently in the AGS top 20:

1. NDSU 4-1 against the AGS top 20
2. Illinois State 3-1
3. EWU 2-0 does have loss to non top 20 NAU
4. Jacksonville 2-0 Overall record includes win over non-D1 W. Alabama and 45-7 setback against MSU
5. Villanova 2-1
6. UNI 2-2
7. New Hampshire 1-0

2 teams are tied for 8th:

8. Coastal Carolina 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20
8. Fordham 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20

10. Chattanooga 0-1 against the AGS top 20

Hope the selection committee really scours the AGS top 10's schedules when they are determining the seeds for this season's playoffs.

[Bison56]

If we list teams with the most top 20 wins, then here are the current AGS top 10 teams and how they fared against teams currently in the AGS top 20:

1. NDSU 4-1 against the AGS top 20
2. Illinois State 3-1
3. EWU 2-0 does have loss to non top 20 NAU
4. Jacksonville 2-0 Overall record includes win over non-D1 W. Alabama and 45-7 setback against MSU
5. Villanova 2-1
6. UNI 2-2
7. New Hampshire 1-0

2 teams are tied for 8th:

8. Coastal Carolina 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20
8. Fordham 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20

10. Chattanooga 0-1 against the AGS top 20

Hope the selection committee really scours the AGS top 10's schedules when they are determining the seeds for this season's playoffs.

Wasn't Villanova ranked when they played Fordham?

[birdsflyhigh]

Of course, so that would drop Fordham down to a 9th place tie with Chattanooga at 0-1. Whoops.

[Cocky]

If we list teams with the most top 20 wins, then here are the current AGS top 10 teams and how they fared against teams currently in the AGS top 20:

1. NDSU 4-1 against the AGS top 20
2. Illinois State 3-1
3. EWU 2-0 does have loss to non top 20 NAU
4. Jacksonville 2-0 Overall record includes win over non-D1 W. Alabama and 45-7 setback against MSU
5. Villanova 2-1
6. UNI 2-2
7. New Hampshire 1-0

2 teams are tied for 8th:

8. Coastal Carolina 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20
8. Fordham 0 wins 0 losses having played not one team in the AGS top 20

10. Chattanooga 0-1 against the AGS top 20

Hope the selection committee really scours the AGS top 10's schedules when they are determining the seeds for this season's playoffs.

Dang if you did this model and adjusted for losses JSU would be the top seed followed by UNH, CCU and Fordham. That top 4 would ruffle some feathers.

[Bison56]

Dang if you did this model and adjusted for losses JSU would be the top seed followed by UNH, CCU and Fordham. That top 4 would ruffle some feathers.

That's an understatement.

[unigriff]

the committee is not going to look at a message board ranking poll to determine jack.

[Bisonator]

the committee is not going to look at a message board ranking poll to determine jack.

What? You mean they aren't going to have AGS up on the big board Saturday night dissecting our work here??

[Big_Fan]

JSU was tied after 1, up 10 at the half and up 11 at the end of the game. Not a blowout in my book against a West Alabama team with spectacular wins over Stillman College, Concordia College, Shorter? and Mississippi College......

In other words, no, he didn't watch the game.

If he had, he would know that JSU was up by 31 early in the 4th quarter, and UWA scored 21 points, and put up over 200 yards of offense, on 3rd stringers and walk-ons. The game was our first home game, coming on the heels of two very physical road games against Michigan State, and Chatty... and the game was never in doubt.

Regardless, we are a lot better after 10 games with a completely new coaching staff, and rebuilt secondary, than we were in Game 3.

[Wallace]

Should be in no order

CCU
EWU
ILS
JSU
NDSU
UNH
UNI
VU

[Wallace]

Should be in no order

CCU
EWU
ILS
JSU
NDSU
UNH
UNI
VU
It would be fitting to have NDSU and ILS as the top 2 seeds - co-champs of the toughest conference, did not play each other this year, only 4 MVFC teams get in the playoffs...

[WrenFGun]

It would be fitting to have NDSU and ILS as the top 2 seeds - co-champs of the toughest conference, did not play each other this year, only 4 MVFC teams get in the playoffs...

JMO:

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. JSU
4. Il. State
5. EWU
6. Villanova
7. CCU
8. Chattanooga

[kalm]

It would be fitting to have NDSU and ILS as the top 2 seeds - co-champs of the toughest conference, did not play each other this year, only 4 MVFC teams get in the playoffs...

Their quality wins are over 8-4 SDSU, 7-5 ISUr, 7-5 YSU, and 6-6 SIU.

One maybe two will make the field, two will finish ranked.

EWU will finish with four wins over 8-4 teams, all four of which will probably be ranked, 3-4 of which will make the playoffs, one a conference champion, and a close loss to a bowl bound FBS.

[Gordon Shumway]

JMO:

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. JSU
4. Il. State
5. EWU
6. Villanova
7. CCU
8. Chattanooga

I think that is pretty good, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Nova and CCU switched just to potentially save some money.

[kalm]

JMO:

1. NDSU
2. UNH
3. JSU
4. Il. State
5. EWU
6. Villanova
7. CCU
8. Chattanooga

NDSU
UNH
EWU
ISUr
JSU
Nova
CCU
UNI

[RabidRabbit]

1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jax St
4) Nova
5) EWU
6) IL St
7) UNI
8) Chatty

[Red & Black]

NDSU
UNH
EWU
ISU
JSU
CCU
Nova
Chatt

[Red & Black]

EWU will finish with four wins over 8-4 teams, all four of which will probably be ranked, 3-4 of which will make the playoffs, one a conference champion, and a close loss to a bowl bound FBS.

This. It'll be a close call, but I think EWU has a better resume, plays in a tougher conference, and was far more competitive in their game vs a P5 opponent than JSU.

JSU has the win over the SoCon champs, EWU has the win over the Southland champs. I think the Southland was a better conference that the SoCon this year.

[lionsrking2]

This. It'll be a close call, but I think EWU has a better resume, plays in a tougher conference, and was far more competitive in their game vs a P5 opponent than JSU.

JSU has the win over the SoCon champs, EWU has the win over the Southland champs. I think the Southland was a better conference that the SoCon this year.

You beat an SLC Co champ.

[dewey]

Their quality wins are over 8-4 SDSU, 7-5 ISUr, 7-5 YSU, and 6-6 SIU.

One maybe two will make the field, two will finish ranked.

EWU will finish with four wins over 8-4 teams, all four of which will probably be ranked, 3-4 of which will make the playoffs, one a conference champion, and a close loss to a bowl bound FBS.

I would give a higher seed to Eastern Washington over Illinois State.

Dewey

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

My thoughts:

NDSU
UNH
Ill State
EWU
JSU
Nova
CC
Chatt

[Red & Black]

You beat an SLC Co champ.

Yes. Not sure what that changes.

[RollBirds]

I would give a higher seed to Eastern Washington over Illinois State.

Dewey

Yeah I Don't know about that one, there loss to a run of the mill (pun intended) NAU discredits there ok wins over ok teams. If they get a higher seed then the Birds it will be based purely on their name alone.

[Cocky]

This. It'll be a close call, but I think EWU has a better resume, plays in a tougher conference, and was far more competitive in their game vs a P5 opponent than JSU.

JSU has the win over the SoCon champs, EWU has the win over the Southland champs. I think the Southland was a better conference that the SoCon this year.
The SOCON champ has a chance to be a national seed not so for a SLC champ. Plus you play a team not a conference. JSU also did not lose to a FCS team.

Also Mich St is probably a better team than Washington.

JSU will be a 3 if NDSU is 1 or a 4 if UNH is 1. EWU will be a 5 if NDSU is 1 or a 6 if NDSU is 2.

[Red & Black]

The SOCON champ has a chance to be a national seed not so for a SLC champ. Plus you play a team not a conference. JSU also did not lose to a FCS team.

Also Mich St is probably a better team than Washington.

JSU will be a 3 if NDSU is 1 or a 4 if UNH is 1. EWU will be a 5 if NDSU is 1 or a 6 if NDSU is 2.

Little doubt that Mich St. is a better team than Washington, but JSU was not remotely competitive in that game. That matters.

EWU has wins over four 8-4 teams, 3 of which will be in the playoffs.

Also, OVC. There's really only 2 teams in that conference that are worth a damn this year.

[kalm]

Yeah I Don't know about that one, there loss to a run of the mill (pun intended) NAU discredits there ok wins over ok teams. If they get a higher seed then the Birds it will be based purely on their name alone.

And the fact we have better wins.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Little doubt that Mich St. is a better team than Washington, but JSU was not remotely competitive in that game. That matters.

EWU has wins over four 8-4 teams, 3 of which will be in the playoffs.

Also, OVC. There's really only 2 teams in that conference that are worth a damn this year.


This here.

EWU will be the #3 or #4 seed IMO.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Yeah I Don't know about that one, there loss to a run of the mill (pun intended) NAU discredits there ok wins over ok teams. If they get a higher seed then the Birds it will be based purely on their name alone.

They didn't have their starting QB who is more than likely the best QB in the country when the lost by 1 point AT NAU. I still think ISUr should be the higher seed, but the NAU loss doesn't discredit anything.

[lionsrking2]

They didn't have their starting QB who is more than likely the best QB in the country when the lost by 1 point AT NAU. I still think ISUr should be the higher seed, but the NAU loss doesn't discredit anything.

Southern Utah didn't have him Vernon Adams at Northern Arizona either and didn't stop them from beating them.

[Big_Fan]

I don't see us lower than a 4. 3 is possible, if not likely.

The Southland may be better than the SoCon, but the Southland champ is not better than the SoCon champ, and JSU is undefeated in FCS play, and has been pretty dominant. Our win over Chatty was on the road. EKU was on the road. Some of you may not give JSU any respect for 10 straight wins and a top 5 offense (which we will have when stats are updated), but I think the selection committee will.

[Big_Fan]

Little doubt that Mich St. is a better team than Washington, but JSU was not remotely competitive in that game. That matters.

EWU has wins over four 8-4 teams, 3 of which will be in the playoffs.

Also, OVC. There's really only 2 teams in that conference that are worth a damn this year.

The Michigan State game is totally irrelevant to seeding. Playing at MSU at night to open the season? That won't affect our seed.

Losing to Northern Arizona does affect EW.

...and EW fans need to quit making the excuse that Adams was injured. If that is a valid excuse, then our playoff loss to you last season doesn't count. We should have gotten a do-over. One player shouldn't make a difference in win/loss, its your own fault for not having a good back-up...that's what you guys said last year.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

The Michigan State game is totally irrelevant to seeding. Playing at MSU at night to open the season? That won't affect our seed.

Losing to Northern Arizona does affect EW.

...and EW fans need to quit making the excuse that Adams was injured. If that is a valid excuse, then our playoff loss to you last season doesn't count. We should have gotten a do-over. One player shouldn't make a difference in win/loss, its your own fault for not having a good back-up...that's what you guys said last year.


I approve this post!

xthumbsupx

[lionsrking2]

I don't see us lower than a 4. 3 is possible, if not likely.

The Southland may be better than the SoCon, but the Southland champ is not better than the SoCon champ, and JSU is undefeated in FCS play, and has been pretty dominant. Our win over Chatty was on the road. EKU was on the road. Some of you may not give JSU any respect for 10 straight wins and a top 5 offense (which we will have when stats are updated), but I think the selection committee will.

I disagree with that. I think we're both better than the So-Con champ.

[Red & Black]

The Michigan State game is totally irrelevant to seeding. Playing at MSU at night to open the season? That won't affect our seed.

Losing to Northern Arizona does affect EW.

...and EW fans need to quit making the excuse that Adams was injured. If that is a valid excuse, then our playoff loss to you last season doesn't count. We should have gotten a do-over. One player shouldn't make a difference in win/loss, its your own fault for not having a good back-up...that's what you guys said last year.

Who's making excuses? Not me. Every team has to deal with injuries.

I think the point people are making is that EWU is a different team with Adams, and going into the playoffs, he is healthy.

Our backup QB did just fine during that time and was one bone-headed coaching decision from being 4-0 as a starter.

It is a fact that EWU has more wins against playoff bound teams, but I would not be surprised if JSU is seeded higher because of overall record even if we have the better resume, IMO.

Honestly, I wouldn't be too surprised by anything at this point. Hell, CC could be the #3 seed for all we know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

The Michigan State game is totally irrelevant to seeding. Playing at MSU at night to open the season? That won't affect our seed.

Losing to Northern Arizona does affect EW.

...and EW fans need to quit making the excuse that Adams was injured. If that is a valid excuse, then our playoff loss to you last season doesn't count. We should have gotten a do-over. One player shouldn't make a difference in win/loss, its your own fault for not having a good back-up...that's what you guys said last year.

Except the committee looks both at key injuries and close losses to FBS which both work in our favor. JSU's best wins are against Chattanooga and EKU who have two decent wins between them at best and then pretty much beat nobody else of consequence.

Again, Eastern's wins against four 8-4 teams, 3 of which at least our playoff bound, all four of which are ranked and one which is a conference champ far out-weigh a decent loss to 7-5 NAU by one point on the road.

[Cocky]

Except the committee looks both at key injuries and close losses to FBS which both work in our favor. JSU's best wins are against Chattanooga and EKU who have two decent wins between them at best and then pretty much beat nobody else of consequence.

Again, Eastern's wins against four 8-4 teams, 3 of which at least our playoff bound, all four of which are ranked and one which is a conference champ far out-weigh a decent loss to 7-5 NAU by one point on the road.
But you loss to a FCS team and JSU did not. Those 4 8-4 teams beat who? An avg OVC team beat the SLC champs or co champs.

[JaxSinfonian]

Losing to Northern Arizona does affect EW.

This is what I keep saying to myself whenever I read Eagles fans' predictions of a top 4 seed for their team. The fans I met last year in Cheney were fine folks (and kalm was an especially good tailgate host to visiting fans), but the arguments I see for that outcome seem to either ignore the loss or explain it away with Adams' injury. A perfect record against FCS competition will count for a lot, I think (witness CCU's heretofore lofty status - recognizing, though, that ranking doesn't equal seeding). EWU doesn't have that going for them. Meanwhile, close losses are still losses. And the committee has historically not shared AGS posters' disdain for the OVC.

I don't claim to know what the committee will do, but I will be disappointed if JSU is seeded lower than fourth, and surprised if EWU is seeded higher than fifth.

That said, it's entirely possible that I'll be both surprised and disappointed tomorrow morning.

[kalm]

This is what I keep saying to myself whenever I read Eagles fans' predictions of a top 4 seed for their team. The fans I met last year in Cheney were fine folks (and kalm was an especially good tailgate host to visiting fans), but the arguments I see for that outcome seem to either ignore the loss or explain it away with Adams' injury. A perfect record against FCS competition will count for a lot, I think (witness CCU's heretofore lofty status - recognizing, though, that ranking doesn't equal seeding). EWU doesn't have that going for them. Meanwhile, close losses are still losses. And the committee has historically not shared AGS posters' disdain for the OVC.

I don't claim to know what the committee will do, but I will be disappointed if JSU is seeded lower than fourth, and surprised if EWU is seeded higher than fifth.

That said, it's entirely possible that I'll be both surprised and disappointed tomorrow morning.

Both of the last two posts raise interesting points, but again, you're still two quality wins short of Eastern with one less game played.

[Big_Fan]

But you loss to a FCS team and JSU did not. Those 4 8-4 teams beat who? An avg OVC team beat the SLC champs or co champs.

Exactly.

The committee may make note of Adam's injury... but they will also make note of JSU's offense being comparable to EW's, and JSU's defense being significantly better.

Don't get me wrong, I think EW will be a tough game if we play them...probably a toss-up. We need Hough back, and our secondary better pack their lunch. We probably match up better with NDSU, and I know we match up better against CAA teams. UNH or Nova would be fun games.

[chattownmocs]

Both of the last two posts raise interesting points, but again, you're still two quality wins short of Eastern with one less game played.

Wtf. You will not be seeded higher and have no business being seeded higher than them. Stfu.

[JaxSinfonian]

Both of the last two posts raise interesting points, but again, you're still two quality wins short of Eastern with one less game played.

And EWU has one more FCS loss than JSU. See? You did it again. :)

[kalm]

And EWU has one more FCS loss than JSU. See? You did it again. :)

Yes, and you've played 2 FCS teams with winning records while we've played 5.

:D

[Big_Fan]

Yes, and you've played 2 FCS teams with winning records while we've played 5.

:D

And the FCS team that you lost to, lost to a D2 school. :p

Edit...

well, they didn't, but they lost to N. Colorado. Close enough.

...Sam Houston, one of your quality wins, lost to a D2 team.

[dudeitsaid]

And the FCS team that you lost to, lost to a D2 school. :p

Edit...

well, they didn't, but they lost to N. Colorado. Close enough.

Huh, what D2 school did NAU lose to???

Edit...

LOL, you edited your post while I was writing mine. Sure, close enough as long as Austin Peay and Murray State are counted as DII as well, in which case, you're resume starts to lose even more of it's luster! :p:p

[Red & Black]

Yes, and you've played 2 FCS teams with winning records while we've played 5.

:D

This is what I'm getting at. There's exactly 2 decent teams in the OVC this year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kalm]

Wtf. You will not be seeded higher and have no business being seeded higher than them. Stfu.

Yes.

and

no.

[dudeitsaid]

And the FCS team that you lost to, lost to a D2 school. :p

Edit...

well, they didn't, but they lost to N. Colorado. Close enough.

...Sam Houston, one of your quality wins, lost to a D2 team.

And they will be in the playoffs, and will likely win some games. Go ahead, think SHSU is garbage because of that.

[Big_Fan]

I just don't get overly impressed by 8 win teams who lost to teams with losing records. NAU was a good team.... other than when they lost to 3-8 Northern Colorado, or 2-10 South Dakota.

...or perhaps that weren't very good, and had wins over some patsies.

The same team that lost to the worst team in the MVFC beat you. Deal with it. If we were as good as the teams you played, we would have lost to a couple of those mediocre OVC teams we played.

[dudeitsaid]

Shoot, who knows what the committee will do. Obviously, all of our fanbases have strong opinions of where our teams should be seeded. But whether the committee will look at the info the same way remains to be seen. I do think UNH and NDSU will be one and two. But beyond that, I could see it going so many different ways. I could see Jax St, ISUr, EWU, and even Nova getting a nod at 3 or 4. I hope we are one of those two seeds, and think it is a realistic possibility. But any of those four being seeds 3 and 4 wouldn't surprise me.

[kalm]

I just don't get overly impressed by 8 win teams who lost to teams with losing records. NAU was a good team.... other than when they lost to 3-8 Northern Colorado, or 2-10 South Dakota.

...or perhaps that weren't very good, and had wins over some patsies.

The same team that lost to the worst team in the MVFC beat you. Deal with it. If we were as good as the teams you played, we would have lost to a couple of those mediocre OVC teams we played.

But at least we played against more than two 8-win teams.

[kalm]

Shoot, who knows what the committee will do. Obviously, all of our fanbases have strong opinions of where our teams should be seeded. But whether the committee will look at the info the same way remains to be seen. I do think UNH and NDSU will be one and two. But beyond that, I could see it going so many different ways. I could see Jax St, ISUr, EWU, and even Nova getting a nod at 3 or 4. I hope we are one of those two seeds, and think it is a realistic possibility. But any of those four being seeds 3 and 4 wouldn't surprise me.

yup.

[RabidRabbit]

I just don't get overly impressed by 8 win teams who lost to teams with losing records. NAU was a good team.... other than when they lost to 3-8 Northern Colorado, or 2-10 South Dakota.

...or perhaps that weren't very good, and had wins over some patsies.

The same team that lost to the worst team in the MVFC beat you. Deal with it. If we were as good as the teams you played, we would have lost to a couple of those mediocre OVC teams we played.

Like your OVC runner-up, and likely 2nd OVC participant?

Hope the 2nd FBS winner out of the MVFC, who also has 7 D-I wins, and a worst loss of vs WIU gets a chance to play again this post season.

[dudeitsaid]

I just don't get overly impressed by 8 win teams who lost to teams with losing records. NAU was a good team.... other than when they lost to 3-8 Northern Colorado, or 2-10 South Dakota.

...or perhaps that weren't very good, and had wins over some patsies.

The same team that lost to the worst team in the MVFC beat you. Deal with it. If we were as good as the teams you played, we would have lost to a couple of those mediocre OVC teams we played.

NAU wasn't that good, IMO, and could very well be the thing that bites us. Depends on what the committee values more, the wins we have, or the losses.

You think your team is more deserving. No surprise. It's your team. We think ours is. Both of us can present a reasonable case. But none of us really know how the committee is ultimately going to view our teams. And we may be debating their decision after it's made because we disagree with it. I think your chances of being 3 or 4 are very good.

[Big_Fan]

Shoot, who knows what the committee will do. Obviously, all of our fanbases have strong opinions of where our teams should be seeded. But whether the committee will look at the info the same way remains to be seen. I do think UNH and NDSU will be one and two. But beyond that, I could see it going so many different ways. I could see Jax St, ISUr, EWU, and even Nova getting a nod at 3 or 4. I hope we are one of those two seeds, and think it is a realistic possibility. But any of those four being seeds 3 and 4 wouldn't surprise me.

I would agree with that.

There are no good arguments against Jax being a 3 or 4 seed, and I can easily see us ahead of a team with an FCS loss, regardless of anything else. We do have 2 road wins over top 20 teams, one of which is likely to get a seed. Are there arguments for EW being a 3 or 4 seed? Sure... but the FCS loss was not a "quality loss." Northern Arizona has 2 wins over teams with winning records, EWU, and 6-5 Cal Poly. They have 4 losses to teams with losing records. They are no better than middle of the OVC...and we didn't lose to UT-Martin.

[Big_Fan]

Like your OVC runner-up, and likely 2nd OVC participant?

Hope the 2nd FBS winner out of the MVFC, who also has 7 D-I wins, and a worst loss of vs WIU gets a chance to play again this post season.

We beat them by 2 TD's in bad weather on their field. They didn't sniff our end zone, much less beat us.

Indiana State lost to Western Illinois, which is a game they should have won... but Western's record is full of losses to good teams, not teams with losing records.

[clenz]

With how the committee works there is no way CCU isn't a seed

1. NDSU (too much history the last 3 years for 1 loss to hold them off of it)
2. UNH
3. Jacksonville State (the committee loves the OVC traditionally)
4. Eastern Washington (NAU loss keeps them from fighting for the 2)
5. Villanova (CAA love is still strong, even if in small qty of teams)
6. Illinois State (Weak OOC schedule keeps them from moving higher)
7. Coastal Carolina (weak schedule, but the committee loves weaker conferences and only 1 loss...tough to argue for them, but tough to argue against with the way the committee thinks)
8. Chatty (don't know if they "deserve" it but Big Sky won't get 2, they won't give the MVFC 3, Fordham's loss keeps them out)

[PantherRob82]

With how the committee works there is no way CCU isn't a seed

7. Coastal Carolina (weak schedule, but the committee loves weaker conferences and only 1 loss...tough to argue for them, but tough to argue against with the way the committee thinks)


2012 Lehigh refutes these points.

[clenz]

2012 Lehigh refutes these points.

Lehigh wasn't top 5 in every major poll...i don't believe.

[PantherRob82]

Lehigh wasn't top 5 in every major poll...i don't believe.

I'd be curious to see their ranking prior to the Colgate loss.

[dudeitsaid]

I would agree with that.

There are no good arguments against Jax being a 3 or 4 seed, and I can easily see us ahead of a team with an FCS loss, regardless of anything else. We do have 2 road wins over top 20 teams, one of which is likely to get a seed. Are there arguments for EW being a 3 or 4 seed? Sure... but the FCS loss was not a "quality loss." Northern Arizona has 2 wins over teams with winning records, EWU, and 6-5 Cal Poly. They have 4 losses to teams with losing records. They are no better than middle of the OVC...and we didn't lose to UT-Martin.

Maybe not...but that doesn't mean that the committee won't view the "arguments" of some of the other teams being better. No need to try to convince me. I get that we're all at the whim of a group of people. I think our wins will speak louder, you think our loss will. You do realize we played one more game than you guys did, right? And we have the same number of total wins and Division 1 wins? We played one more game than you, and that game happened to be a one point loss on the road to a team with a decent record. We played more tougher opponents. We have more "good" wins. We were actually in our FBS game. Our uniforms look way better than yours. Our mascot doesn't have a nickname that can be used in as many derogatory ways. VA has his own website.

I don't think it's as clearcut as you do. We will see tomorrow.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'd be curious to see their ranking prior to the Colgate loss.

5th in TSN, 8th in the Coaches....

[PantherRob82]

5th in TSN, 8th in the Coaches....

Hmm. Where did they finish in the poll that season?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Hmm. Where did they finish in the poll that season?

14th/16th....

This is rehashing bad memories. There might never be a snub like that when you consider what they did the two previous years. Plus, that Colgate loss was their only conference loss in 3 years. They also had the longest regular season winning streak in all of D1 football when they lost to Colgate....xsmhx

[Big_Fan]

Maybe not...but that doesn't mean that the committee won't view the "arguments" of some of the other teams being better. No need to try to convince me. I get that we're all at the whim of a group of people. I think our wins will speak louder, you think our loss will. You do realize we played one more game than you guys did, right? And we have the same number of total wins and Division 1 wins? We played one more game than you, and that game happened to be a one point loss on the road to a team with a decent record. We played more tougher opponents. We have more "good" wins. We were actually in our FBS game. Our uniforms look way better than yours. Our mascot doesn't have a nickname that can be used in as many derogatory ways. VA has his own website.

I don't think it's as clearcut as you do. We will see tomorrow.

I don't think it is clearcut.

You left one out factor... I will give you the mascot issue, but you guys play on a butt-ugly field in stadium smaller than half the high schools in Alabama. It looks terrible on TV.

...and VA's website was built with Microsoft Front Page. xlolx
(don't know that for sure, but it makes a good insult)

[clenz]

Hmm. Where did they finish in the poll that season?

In the AGS poll they never got above 11...

Starting with preseason and going through final
11
15
14
14
13
13
12
13
11
13
14
21
18
19

It would appear they were "woffed" but their SOS, computer/composite rankings were all bad. Lehigh was 51 in Sagarin in 2012 and 33 in Massey

The Big South is ranked well by the computers/composite. If that's taken into account at all it's a good thing for CCU.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I wish FCS used a method more in line with college basketball where the numbers matter but only to a point. The most important factor is actually looking at physical make-up of the team. That is what ultimately matters.....

[Twentysix]

I wish FCS used a method more in line with college basketball where the numbers matter but only to a point. The most important factor is actually looking at physical make-up of the team. That is what ultimately matters.....

Like racial composition and economic class distinctions?

:p

[ekufbfan]

Like your OVC runner-up, and likely 2nd OVC participant?

Hope the 2nd FBS winner out of the MVFC, who also has 7 D-I wins, and a worst loss of vs WIU gets a chance to play again this post season.
To read on this Board one would think no one was deserving of a bid unless your school has Dakota as part of the state name.
Good Luck JSU and GO EKU!

[dudeitsaid]

I would agree with that.

There are no good arguments against Jax being a 3 or 4 seed, and I can easily see us ahead of a team with an FCS loss, regardless of anything else. We do have 2 road wins over top 20 teams, one of which is likely to get a seed. Are there arguments for EW being a 3 or 4 seed? Sure... but the FCS loss was not a "quality loss." Northern Arizona has 2 wins over teams with winning records, EWU, and 6-5 Cal Poly. They have 4 losses to teams with losing records. They are no better than middle of the OVC...and we didn't lose to UT-Martin.

There you go. Congrats guys. I was happy with either 3 or 4, and we got that. You guys got the seed you wanted as well. Both programs got solid recognition, IMO.

[Cocky]

This is what I'm getting at. There's exactly 2 decent teams in the OVC this year.


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an avg OVC team beat a conference co champ and playoff team.