A project

[URMite]

I'd love to see a spreadsheet that showed everyone with 4 losses or less,
with their next opponent, division I wins, and if still eligible for an AQ.

Supe's is a great place to start.

I'm going to assume that teams with 5 losses TODAY won't get an at-large, haven't checked to see about AQs.

I'm going to assume any SWAC that would accept a bid isn't good enough to get one. I think that leaves 40 teams.

If no else decides to do this I might have time to at lunch tomorrow.

[Southern Bison]

See Superman's How They Fared.

[URMite]

Yes, I said that is a great place to start.

I'll remove a few teams/columns, add a few.

[melloware13]

Here's something:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhV4i423rtrBb1MZpUvOkbTGI5SO7ftlh123BShJyBs/edit?usp=sharing

Obviously some teams (PFL) are listed due to not being eliminated with categories, but are realistically not going to get an at large bid.

[lionsrking2]

Here's something:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhV4i423rtrBb1MZpUvOkbTGI5SO7ftlh123BShJyBs/edit?usp=sharing

Obviously some teams (PFL) are listed due to not being eliminated with categories, but are realistically not going to get an at large bid.

Northwestern State should be alive over McNeese. They are 6-5 with 6 D-I wins and play SFA this weekend. McNeese can't get to 7 D-I wins.

[melloware13]

5 losses is an eliminator (unless the team is alive for the AQ).

[Jason Svoboda]

I would like to see the FCS opponent W-L records of everyone's schedules. For example, I just opened up your spreadsheet and took a look at Fordham since I haven't looked at them this season. I pulled up their schedule on ESPN and they've not beaten anyone but Bucknell. No offense, but that isn't a quality win as they've knocked down the same tomato cans.

FCS W/L of their wins: 31-70 -- (5-5), (0-11), (0-9), (4-7), (4-6), (1-8), (3-7), (4-7), (8-2), (2-8)
FCS W/L of their losses: 9-2
FCS Total W/L: 40-72

Fordham's last game is against a FBS 3-7 Army team. Here is Indiana State's same info:

FBS W/L of their wins: 3-7
FBS W/L of their losses: 3-7
FCS W/L of their wins: 35-31 -- (4-7), (7-4), (7-4), (6-5), (4-7), (7-4)
FCS W/L of their losses: 26-6 -- (9-1), (10-1), (7-4)
FCS Total W/L: 61-37

So our 7 opponents have more wins than Fordham's 10 opponents. Even if we drop the worse 3 W/L of their wins, the Fordham opponent W/L record is still 30-42. If this is their AQ, Bucknell should immediately be eliminated for bubble contention IMO. Not to sound like an elitist, but I'm pretty sure Missouri State, Western Illinois and South Dakota finish 1-2-3 in that conference. It is just the way it is in the MVFC the last couple of years. I'd seriously be interested to see this sort of thing for all 44 teams listed on this spreadsheet. I think it would open eyes and I'd imagine the list would likely show exactly what 24 should be in the bracket.

[lionsrking2]

I would like to see the FCS opponent W-L records of everyone's schedules. For example, I just opened up your spreadsheet and took a look at Fordham since I haven't looked at them this season. I pulled up their schedule on ESPN and they've not beaten anyone but Bucknell. No offense, but that isn't a quality win as they've knocked down the same tomato cans.

FCS W/L of their wins: 31-70 -- (5-5), (0-11), (0-9), (4-7), (4-6), (1-8), (3-7), (4-7), (8-2), (2-8)
FCS W/L of their losses: 9-2
FCS Total W/L: 40-72

Fordham's last game is against a FBS 3-7 Army team. Here is Indiana State's same info:

FBS W/L of their wins: 3-7
FBS W/L of their losses: 3-7
FCS W/L of their wins: 35-31 -- (4-7), (7-4), (7-4), (6-5), (4-7), (7-4)
FCS W/L of their losses: 26-6 -- (9-1), (10-1), (7-4)
FCS Total W/L: 61-37

So our 7 opponents have more wins than Fordham's 10 opponents. Even if we drop the worse 3 W/L of their wins, the Fordham opponent W/L record is still 30-42. If this is their AQ, Bucknell should immediately be eliminated for bubble contention IMO. Not to sound like an elitist, but I'm pretty sure Missouri State, Western Illinois and South Dakota finish 1-2-3 in that conference. It is just the way it is in the MVFC the last couple of years. I'd seriously be interested to see this sort of thing for all 44 teams listed on this spreadsheet. I think it would open eyes and I'd imagine the list would likely show exactly what 24 should be in the bracket.

You've just highlighted why Fordham likely won't be seeded, especially if they don't beat Army.

[dudeitsaid]

I would like to see the FCS opponent W-L records of everyone's schedules. For example, I just opened up your spreadsheet and took a look at Fordham since I haven't looked at them this season. I pulled up their schedule on ESPN and they've not beaten anyone but Bucknell. No offense, but that isn't a quality win as they've knocked down the same tomato cans.

FCS W/L of their wins: 31-70 -- (5-5), (0-11), (0-9), (4-7), (4-6), (1-8), (3-7), (4-7), (8-2), (2-8)
FCS W/L of their losses: 9-2
FCS Total W/L: 40-72

Fordham's last game is against a FBS 3-7 Army team. Here is Indiana State's same info:

FBS W/L of their wins: 3-7
FBS W/L of their losses: 3-7
FCS W/L of their wins: 35-31 -- (4-7), (7-4), (7-4), (6-5), (4-7), (7-4)
FCS W/L of their losses: 26-6 -- (9-1), (10-1), (7-4)
FCS Total W/L: 61-37

So our 7 opponents have more wins than Fordham's 10 opponents. Even if we drop the worse 3 W/L of their wins, the Fordham opponent W/L record is still 30-42. If this is their AQ, Bucknell should immediately be eliminated for bubble contention IMO. Not to sound like an elitist, but I'm pretty sure Missouri State, Western Illinois and South Dakota finish 1-2-3 in that conference. It is just the way it is in the MVFC the last couple of years. I'd seriously be interested to see this sort of thing for all 44 teams listed on this spreadsheet. I think it would open eyes and I'd imagine the list would likely show exactly what 24 should be in the bracket.

So, you're essentially creating a visual of an SOS. The challenge is not ever record is equal. Even your illustration of MSU, WIU, and USD finishing 1-2-3 in that conference indicates that a win versus a 2-9 valley team is better than a win (Villanova's win) over 10-1 Fordham. Likewise, those teams over Bucknell's 8-2.

There is no perfect statistical picture, but it would create an interesting picture. It would still be incomplete unless maybe the teams, some type of ranking to quantify them, and the win/loss ratio you've shown were included. And even then, it seems there are always some type of "yeah, but's" to add to the discussion.

[Jason Svoboda]

So, you're essentially creating a visual of an SOS. The challenge is not ever record is equal. Even your illustration of MSU, WIU, and USD finishing 1-2-3 in that conference indicates that a win versus a 2-9 valley team is better than a win (Villanova's win) over 10-1 Fordham. Likewise, those teams over Bucknell's 8-2.

There is no perfect statistical picture, but it would create an interesting picture. It would still be incomplete unless maybe the teams, some type of ranking to quantify them, and the win/loss ratio you've shown were included. And even then, it seems there are always some type of "yeah, but's" to add to the discussion.

For sure, but I'm a proponent of having as much information on the table as possible.

I'd also like to see adjusted FCS team statistics against only FCS competition. Wish the NCAA stats website would let you filter all FBS and D2/D3/NAIA games out.

[dudeitsaid]

For sure, but I'm a proponent of having as much information on the table as possible.

I'd also like to see adjusted FCS team statistics against only FCS competition. Wish the NCAA stats website would let you filter all FBS and D2/D3/NAIA games out.

I agree with this! I think there are some sites that do do this, I just don't know what they are. But I've seen people quote conference only, or FCS only stats before.

[dudeitsaid]

EWU is 8-1 vs FCS competition. Their opponents are a combined 47-50 against all competition, and 41-36 versus FCS competition.
SHSU 7-4 (7-2 FCS)
MSU 8-3 (7-2 FCS)
UCD 2-8 (1-6 FCS)
ISU 7-4 (5-2 FCS)
SUU 2-9 (2-7 FCS)
UNC 3-7 (3-6 FCS)
NAU 7-4 (6-3 FCS) [loss]***by one point when EWU was down starting QB
UND 4-7 (4-6 FCS)
UM 7-4 (6-3 FCS)

That could be an interesting picture, but like you said, doing the data gathering by oneself would be very time consuming. To put it together for my team took three to four minutes alone, so to do it for the top 40, or all teams with playoff potential could take several hours, plus have a high chance of some data entry error. In any case, especially for the bubble teams, it could be interesting to see.

[melloware13]

I updated the sheet, adjusting to win percentage. It is currently set to AQ -> Win % -> FCS Opponent Win %, and I'll try to adjust it during the weekend.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mhV4i423rtrBb1MZpUvOkbTGI5SO7ftlh123BShJyBs/edit?usp=sharing