Third and three at mid-field

[ngineer]

For years, it has been said that the toughest play call is third and four--pass or run. But recently, with increasing size of OL's and DL's, passing on third and four seems to occur at least 80% of the time. So modifying the ol' slogan to 'third and three' at mid-field--what would your school do considering their personnel. Of course, the opponent could also have a significant impact on the decision, too, as well as time in the game. But putting those two elements aside, what do you call?

[ChickenMan]

The old Delaware Wing-T offense would have been about 75% run... under the current 'Spread Offense'... it's probably about 60% pass. But as you stated... the opposing 'D' would effect those percentages.

[ngineer]

The old Delaware Wing-T offense would have been about 75% run... under the current 'Spread Offense'... it's probably about 60% pass. But as you stated... the opposing 'D' would effect those percentages.
Agreed there completely. With Tubby you knew what was coming in that scenario--and even then couldn't stop it half the time..All things being even, I would say we (Lehigh) would be around 50% with a healthy Rath, but with our untested O-line at present, I'd lean to 60% pass on something quick.

[eaglesrthe1]

What would GSU do...that's a tough one. Not. Change it to 3rd and about 8 and I might have to think about it. :D

In that situation GSU would run about 95% of the time. The other 5% would be a playaction pass for a td because the defense knew that they would run.

[VictorG]

If the Griz decided to go for it, 85% chance they pass or pass/option run for the QB. The other 15% chance a draw or sweep of some sort. With new skill players this year I suspect this ratio will still be close as I'm betting we still pass a lot, but will see more QB option to a pass or keep it for a run stuff.

[dungeonjoe]

What would GSU do...that's a tough one. Not. Change it to 3rd and about 8 and I might have to think about it. :D

In that situation GSU would run about 95% of the time. The other 5% would be a playaction pass for a td because the defense knew that they would run.


same with Wofford

[blukeys]

same with Wofford
The Wofford team I saw in '03 would probably run it with 4th and 3 at mid-field.

[ISUMatt]

Hand off to Brian Thompson to the right side behind Stafford Davis. Thats what my Illinois State would do!!!

[DFW HOYA]

So modifying the ol' slogan to 'third and three' at mid-field--what would your school do considering their personnel.

Run.

Given the Hoyas' 22% third down conversion last year in the PL, that might change this year.

[dungeonjoe]

The Wofford team I saw in '03 would probably run it with 4th and 3 at mid-field.

:D

[arkstfan]

Be a lot easier if it were first goal.

The answer last year for my dear ol alma mater would be commit a false start penalty followed by another one.

[ngineer]

Be a lot easier if it were first goal.

The answer last year for my dear ol alma mater would be commit a false start penalty followed by another one.
There have been times in the past when the running game wasn't up to par and we were within the 10 that a false start was welcomed, as it gave the offense more room to maneuver for a pass play :bang:

[Husky Alum]

NU would try a 7 yard slant across the middle, or hand the ball off to a power back (like McKanas or Tim Gale) and prior to last year it was very successful. Last year one of two things would happen.. Cory Parks would catch the slant and take it downfield, or the opposing team's linebacker/safety would catch it and take it downfield.

With a new QB this year, NO idea.

[TheBisonator]

From my observation of last years' games, most of the time NDSU would try to open up a seam using the OL's on the left or right side of the line, with a handoff to Steffes or Chapman. Otherwise, a slant to Travis White.

[GSUBass]

lemme see...hand off to the fullback up the middle for 4 yards.

heck we did that on 4th and 1 against uga plenty of times last season and converted on a lot of em.

[eaglefan452]

What would GSU do...that's a tough one. Not. Change it to 3rd and about 8 and I might have to think about it. :D

In that situation GSU would run about 95% of the time. The other 5% would be a playaction pass for a td because the defense knew that they would run.

No doubt, GSU would run the ball. There were a few plays last year where GSU threw it in that situation, but that was because the run had been working very well and the defense was stacked up in the box to stop the run.

[MR. CHICKEN]

ON THIRD AN' THREE....AT MID-FIELD.....AH'M GOIN' DOWNTOWN TA DUH TIGHT-END.........BUT KEELER.......WOULD LET RICCIO CHUCK DUH ROCK TA INGRAM.....AN' COME UP UH YARD SHY!.....:(......................BRAWK!

[colgate13]

In the past, high percentage out or slant to Luke Graham. Now that he's gone... Not sure!

[BBB]

We'd run it! Run it until they stop it.

[grizfnz]

Quick kick :)

[Go...gate]

Hand off to the tailback.

[PapaBear]

This is a great question for armchair QB discussions. But in reality, guys, Down-and-Distance play selections are very specific to game-plans. The play choice virtually NEVER comes down to factors obvious to people in the stands.

We fans think on a very superficial level about stuff like this. We figure, "Hey, throw the slant to our 6' 4" split end. He's being covered by a 5' 9" corner."

But true game plan logic goes way deeper than that.

Often it's more like, "they like to bring in a nickel back on 3rd and more than three, and we know this guy can't tackle running to his left, so we're going to give him a formation and play that forces him to tackle our best back to his weakest side. Every other team that has consistently converted 3rd-and-4 against them has done so with that strategy."

Goofy example but hopefully you get the point. The playcall that we question from Section DD, Row 104. Seat 12, probably is backed by game-tendency stats and facts that we have never seen.

[colgate13]

Of course Papa Bear! It's amazing to see just how much preparation goes into game strategy by coaches. Full out spread sheets of what play to call in what scenario down to if it's a full moon or not ;)

Most teams have full out series scripted with an if/then scenario built into the series. Heck, I can remember practicing on defense against anticipated series that the offense might throw out at us.

And who says football is for dumb jocks? :)

BTW - Section "DD"? Freudian slip Papa?

Late edit: Anyone else read the most recent Time magazine article about Frank Robinson? It mentions that he doesn't manage (baseball, but still, it's a sport analogy) using the crazy stats that most managers do. It's all gut feelings for him. I venture to guess that there are some throwbacks still in I-AA ranks that make a few important calls based on 'gut' and not stats!

[PapaBear]

BTW - Section "DD"? Freudian slip Papa?

I should be so lucky. :rolleyes:

[arkstfan]

I think coaches are starting to over think the tendency element.

I know many teams now analyze their own tendencies and will try to play call to avoid them. If the right side of your offensive line is good and your tailback hits the hole hard and fast there with the confidence that they are going to get it done, what do you care if your tendency is to run a blast at the right side in short yardage? Why roll the QB left when he is more comfortable rolling right and then throw to your average at best receiver over there instead of the sure hands guy on the right side? Just avoid a tendency?

I don't buy it.

Then you always have to remember those tendencies are based on a limited set of games against REAL teams. If you are the 5th game of the season and a team has played 2 games against a subpar nose tackle the numbers are skewed.

One year we were playing TCU in Jonesboro and I was visiting with our radio guys and theirs. I was just sitting there listening as they were each sketching out what they expected from the game. The TCU announcer said with great confidence that TCU's run defense (ranked 8th in the nation at the time) was going to force Arkansas State to pass. He then asked about our passing game.

Being shy and reserved I butted in and said Arkansas State would run and run very effectively against TCU. The announcer snorted and pointed out TCU's run defense ranking. I told him to look at the box scores of the other games those teams had played because "they ain't run on no one this year"

Our tailback had 2 TD's and ran for 155 yards in the game. No team had put up 155 yards total rushing on them but none of them could run to save their life.

The good coaches won't get trapped into the "tendency theory" and will look at what caused them to have those tendencies. If it is because that's what they do best, then yeah worry about. If its because they were playing a team that had a weakness to exploit, you better worry about seeing what your weakness is how to adjust for it.

[Marcus Garvey]

Last year, Arizona's offensive coordinator, Mike Canales, would have called the same damned play he called the previous 4 times his team had 3rd and 3!

It got so bad last year that in the 3rd Qtr on 3rd and short situtions, the whole stadium knew what play was comming, as did the opposing defense. 3rd and 3 usually became 4th and 7!

If I were coaching a high school team, I'd call a counter, because I'd have installed the Delaware Wing-T! Very few high school linebackers are smart enough to read that play and it's almost always good for 6 yards, unless your pulling tackle or RB are idiots themselves.