Big Sky Playoff Picture

[dudeitsaid]

Haven't seen a thread like this on here for the Big Sky Conference yet, so, what the heck.

From where I stand, it appears the following teams from the Big Sky are currently in the playoff picture. I believe the situation looks to be as follows:

EWU - Could potentially get the autobid. Currently at the top of the standings at 6-1 in BSC play. But three other teams have only one BSC loss, and two games to play, while EWU has only one. So, a tie at the top of the standings seems likely. Depending on what the tie is, the autobid could be determined in a number if different ways. That being said, EWU has 8 FCS wins, including four teams that are or have been ranked and have winning records. At current standing, they are in. If the Eagles win their final game of the season against PSU, they should get a seed. However, that is no given, as PSU always plays them tough.

NAU - Could win the autobid. Has what seems to be the easiest path to win out with games against UND and SUU. However, they have shown that lower level teams can compete with them, as evidenced by losses to USD and UNC, and close wins against Weber, and UCD. I could see SUU adding another L to their record this season. They currently have 6 FCS wins, and I wonder if they lose one of their last two, whether they would be selected as an at large. It likely depends on what other options are out there, but I would think that 7-3 in FCS play would put them in a precarious position. What would matter more to the selection committee? The wins over solid Cal Poly and EWU, or the losses to USD, UNC, and lackluster UND or SUU, if that happens. Best thing they can do is win out, and remove all chance of being in that position.

MSU - Could win the autobid. But would need EWU to lose to PSU for that to be a possibility (See tiebreaker explanations below). They have a tough road to finish out the season, with a tough out against resurgent 7-3 Idaho State. Their final game against UM in the Brawl of the Wild is never a gimme, and that game is in Missoula. MSU has looked a little more beatable lately, losing to Cal Poly and pulling off a close win against mediocre Portland State. If they go 1 and 1 in these last two games, they also will only have 7 FCS wins, with currently their best victory coming against 6-5 UCA. Win both remaining games, and regardless of the autobid, they are in.

ISU - Could win the autobid. But would need EWU to lose to PSU for that to be a possibility. They have really revived the program this year. But scheduling two FBS and two Div II teams, and already losing to EWU has left them with no wiggle room. They must win out to have any hope of consideration, as that is their only hope of the autobid (with help) and of reaching the 7 FCS win minimum. Their signature win is a tough Cal Poly team that took out both UM and MSU. Will it be enough for an at large? I would love to see them in. They play with guts, and have the offensive firepower to make their playoff games interesting.

Cal Poly - I believe they could win the autobid only if EWU lost, NAU lost their last two, MSU lost one, and ISU lost two, and somehow their Sagarin rating rose above EWU....I think. In other words, they have as much of a chance of winning powerball, but it is "possible". That being said, the Mustangs have 6 FCS wins, and 2 more FCS games. Both FCS games seem winnable, though San Diego could be a challenge. Thankfully, it's at home. With 8 FCS wins, and signature wins over UM and MSU, and no real "bad" losses (though a blowout loss to SDSU surely doesn't look well, the other two are probably BSC champion NAU and solid ISU), they seem to be the closest thing to a lock for the playoffs. If they drop one of their last two, they also will be on the bubble.

UM - Cannot get the autobid. Must win out to get to 7 FCS wins. Should win next week against SUU. Then they host MSU at home. If they don't pull out both, they are out. If they win both, MSU will be the signature win for the Griz. With their pedigree, they may have the best shot of a BSC bubble team of making the field, especially if a fourth team is somehowselected again.

My prediction for who makes it into the field:

EWU will win out, get a seed (how high depends on what happens with other teams at the top of the FCS. As high as three, as low as 6 IMO)
NAU wins out, and gets the autobid.
Cal Poly wins their last two games, gets into the field.
ISU loses to MSU and is eliminated from consideration.
MSU beats ISU but loses to UM, is a bubble team. But the loss coming on the last weekend of the season to the other bubble team bursts their bubble, and they sit out again!
UM beats MSU. Ending their season with two wins, one against MSU, and the storied tradition propels them into the playoff field as the last team in, perpetuating a firestorm of frustration from other conference fans who believe teams from their conferences had better resumes. And they very well could be right!


My prediction for how the playoffs play out:


UM has to make a long trip in the playoffs, and once again bows out in their first game.
NAU loses badly in their first game, and people talk about how weak the BSC is, when the autobid loses so badly in the first round.
Cal Poly's triple option causes problems for numerous teams in the field. They make it to the semi's, where they lose to NDSU.
EWU barely wins every playoff game in a shootout up to the NC, where they finally face NDSU, and the two teams put on a dramatic finale that AGS posters discuss for years...but not influenced by any perceived game defining bad ref call!


From http://www.bigskyconf.com/news/2012/10/25/FB_1025124525.aspx (Thanks for the updated link, Tingly!)




When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:
1. Head-to-head Competition
2.Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

Example of No. 2: This applies to ALL head-to-head games, even those played as non-conference. (Example: Team A and Team B tie for the championship and played each other as a non-conference game. This game will be used as the tiebreaker).
Example of No. 3:
If conference teams A and B both scheduled the same non-conference opponent (FBS, FCS, Division II or NAIA), the results of that game could be used in a tiebreaker.

[bobcathpdevil56]

If the MSU offense can get back on track, I think they can win these last two games. But, as stated, I would never put money on the Brawl of the Wild. I hope you are wrong and the Bobcats can get in and at least host a first round game.

- - - Updated - - -

Definitely win or go home for all but one or two teams in the conference right now

[tingly]

the current tiebreaker:
1. Head-to-head Competition
2. Record against common CONFERENCE opponents in descending order
3. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents
4. Sagarin Rating
5. Coin Flip

Example of No. 2: This applies to ALL head-to-head games, even those played as non-conference. (Example: Team A and Team B tie for the championship and played each other as a non-conference game. This game will be used as the tiebreaker).

Example of No. 3: If conference teams A and B both scheduled the same non-conference opponent (FBS, FCS, Division II or NAIA), the results of that game could be used in a tiebreaker.

from http://www.bigskyconf.com/news/2014/11/3/FB_1103141610.aspx

[dudeitsaid]

If the MSU offense can get back on track, I think they can win these last two games. But, as stated, I would never put money on the Brawl of the Wild. I hope you are wrong and the Bobcats can get in and at least host a first round game.

- - - Updated - - -

Definitely win or go home for all but one or two teams in the conference right now

If I could choose, I would like to see EWU, MSU, ISU, and Cal Poly in. I'd love to see Prukop rise to the occasion. I think those four teams would have the best performance in the playoffs. But, I think that scenario is EXTREMELY unlikely.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think Montana State steps up and wins their final two games. I've been impressed with the Bobcats all year. They'll find a way.....

[robsnotes4u]

This will really show you what you need

Griz 5 D1 wins now, could end at 7
Griz have not beaten anyone with a winning record in D1, could get one with a win against MSU
Lost to EWU and CP in the conference.
Sagarin ranked 27 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 45 in FCS


CP 6 D1 wins now, could end at 8
CP has wins over two D1 teams with winning records, and could end up with 3 or 4
CP has head to head win over the Griz and Cats
Sagarin rating 32 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 43 in FCS



ISU has 5 D1 wins, could end with 7
ISU has wins over 1 D1 with a winning record
ISU defeated Cal Poly who beat UM
On a 5 game win streak could end at 7
Sagarin rating 23 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 20 in FCS




EWU has 8 D1 wins, could end with 9
EWU consistently in the top 5 of polls (even though the only poll that matters is the weekly by the committee)
EWU has wins over 4 D1 teams with winning records
EWU has a win over UM and MSU
Sagarin rating 13 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 40 in FCS

MSU has 6 D1 wins could end with 8
MSU has wins over 1 D1 team with a winning record
still has head to head with Montana
Sagarin rating 30 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 58 in FCS


NAU has 6 D! wins could end with 8
NAU has wins over 2 D1 teams with a winning record
NAU has wins over EWU and CP
on a 4 game win streak could end at 6
Sagarin rating 44 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 52 in FCS


I understand Sagarin might not be used by the Committe, but other factors by the UNI FCS Selection Committee member's video
1. 8 wins in a 12 game season is a biggie
2. Most FBS wins are not a big factor
3. How are you trending, moving up or down at the end of the year in their polls
4. Who are your wins against

[Green26]

UM has lost only to an FBS team (Wyoming - 12-17), NDSU (was no. 1 - 10-22), EWU (26 - 36 - EWU was as high as no. 2 before losing a game without their star, whom I believe would have won the Payton award and may still win it despite having missed 4 or so games), and Cal Poly (which has a good chance of making the playoffs).

If UM plays in the first round, UM will host. If not till the 2d round, will be on the road.

UM needs to win both of its remaining games.

[mvemjsunpx]

UM has to make a long trip in the playoffs, and once again bows out in their first game.

If the Griz get in, they'll be at home in the first round. All first-round games are unseeded & hosts are determined by bid—UM will always win the bid war.

[Green26]

This will really show you what you need

Griz 5 D1 wins now, could end at 7
Griz have not beaten anyone with a winning record in D1, could get one with a win against MSU
Lost to EWU and CP in the conference.
Sagarin ranked 27 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 45 in FCS


CP 6 D1 wins now, could end at 8
CP has wins over two D1 teams with winning records, and could end up with 3 or 4
CP has head to head win over the Griz and Cats
Sagarin rating 32 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 43 in FCS



ISU has 5 D1 wins, could end with 7
ISU has wins over 1 D1 with a winning record
ISU defeated Cal Poly who beat UM
On a 5 game win streak could end at 7
Sagarin rating 23 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 20 in FCS




EWU has 8 D1 wins, could end with 9
EWU consistently in the top 5 of polls (even though the only poll that matters is the weekly by the committee)
EWU has wins over 4 D1 teams with winning records
EWU has a win over UM and MSU
Sagarin rating 13 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 40 in FCS

MSU has 6 D1 wins could end with 8
MSU has wins over 1 D1 team with a winning record
still has head to head with Montana
Sagarin rating 30 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 58 in FCS


NAU has 6 D! wins could end with 8
NAU has wins over 2 D1 teams with a winning record
NAU has wins over EWU and CP
on a 4 game win streak could end at 6
Sagarin rating 44 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 52 in FCS


I understand Sagarin might not be used by the Committe, but other factors by the UNI FCS Selection Committee member's video
1. 8 wins in a 12 game season is a biggie
2. Most FBS wins are not a big factor
3. How are you trending, moving up or down at the end of the year in their polls
4. Who are your wins against

8 wins in a 12 game season, maybe, but I have never seen it stated or said by the committee that 8 D-I wins is even considered.

Who your losses are to, and by how much, are as important as who the wins are against. The committee knows that some of the conferences are very tough and it's tough to win those games.

Feel free to provide some linked support for your prior statements. Most of my information comes from 2 former selection committee members, both whom were chairs of the committee including one for 2 years. Let us know if any of your computer friends were on the committee.

[dudeitsaid]

If the Griz get in, they'll be at home in the first round. All first-round games are unseeded & hosts are determined by bid—UM will always win the bid war.

You are absolutely right. I knew this. Yet it did not cross my mind as I wrote that. That would definitely help, and I think that helps their cause if they are one of the last teams in.

[dudeitsaid]

This will really show you what you need

Griz 5 D1 wins now, could end at 7
Griz have not beaten anyone with a winning record in D1, could get one with a win against MSU
Lost to EWU and CP in the conference.
Sagarin ranked 27 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 45 in FCS


CP 6 D1 wins now, could end at 8
CP has wins over two D1 teams with winning records, and could end up with 3 or 4
CP has head to head win over the Griz and Cats
Sagarin rating 32 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 43 in FCS



ISU has 5 D1 wins, could end with 7
ISU has wins over 1 D1 with a winning record
ISU defeated Cal Poly who beat UM
On a 5 game win streak could end at 7
Sagarin rating 23 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 20 in FCS




EWU has 8 D1 wins, could end with 9
EWU consistently in the top 5 of polls (even though the only poll that matters is the weekly by the committee)
EWU has wins over 4 D1 teams with winning records
EWU has a win over UM and MSU
Sagarin rating 13 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 40 in FCS

MSU has 6 D1 wins could end with 8
MSU has wins over 1 D1 team with a winning record
still has head to head with Montana
Sagarin rating 30 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 58 in FCS


NAU has 6 D! wins could end with 8
NAU has wins over 2 D1 teams with a winning record
NAU has wins over EWU and CP
on a 4 game win streak could end at 6
Sagarin rating 44 in FCS
Sagarin SOS 52 in FCS


I understand Sagarin might not be used by the Committe, but other factors by the UNI FCS Selection Committee member's video
1. 8 wins in a 12 game season is a biggie
2. Most FBS wins are not a big factor
3. How are you trending, moving up or down at the end of the year in their polls
4. Who are your wins against

Those are good visuals. Thanks for posting those.

It will be interesting to see how the various ratings change as the next couple of weeks play out. Of course, those who lose will have their ratings go down. And some of the SOS could change as well based on the performance of teams one each particular schedule. In any case, these last two weeks are going to be very interesting, as it seems like several various scenarios are in place.

In the worst case scenario, what is the lowest number of teams the BSC gets into the playoffs? In the case NAU drops a game, and EWU gets the autobid, is it conceivable the BSC only get two?!? I personally doubt it, but if the other four teams in the playoff picture all lose at least one game, it could be very interesting seeing who is selected. It would take Cal Poly losing it's last two. NAU losing one or two of their last two. ISU losing to MSU. MSU losing to UM. And UM losing to SUU. Hard to imagine, but if that happened, they'd have to select an at large from MSU, Cal Poly, and possibly NAU. That would be wacky!

[robsnotes4u]

8 wins in a 12 game season, maybe, but I have never seen it stated or said by the committee that 8 D-I wins is even considered.

Who your losses are to, and by how much, are as important as who the wins are against. The committee knows that some of the conferences are very tough and it's tough to win those games.



Feel free to provide some linked support for your prior statements. Most of my information comes from 2 former selection committee members, both whom were chairs of the committee including one for 2 years. Let us know if any of your computer friends were on the committee.

It is all right here from a CURRENT Committee Member. As he states different committees do things differently.

And as to your smart ass comment, he isn't my friend.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCotwOXYY44

[mvemjsunpx]

Reasons for Optimism & Skepticism

I'm not including EWU in this analysis because they're a lock to get in. The PSU game should only be the difference between seed & no seed.


Cal Poly

Optimism - Playing really well now.
- Good wins over Montana, MSU, and a blowout of Sac.


- No reason they shouldn't win out with Davis & San Diego left.
Skepticism - Lousy early-season performances hurt their resume.
- Won't tie for first in the standings.



Idaho St.

Optimism - Won 5 in a row (4 against DI)
- Beat CP and hammered Sac.
- No bad losses.
- In for sure if they win out.

Skepticism - Didn't play an FCS team out of conference.
- Have to play MSU in Bozeman.


- Probably can't afford to lose with 2 non-D1 wins (one of which ended up close).
- Have only beaten Weber 2 times in the last 29 meetings.



NAU

Optimism - Will get the auto-bid if they win out.
- 2 good wins over EWU & Cal Poly.
- Won 4 in a row.
- Easy remaining schedule.

Skepticism - 2 bad losses to SoDak & NoCo.
- Multiple close calls against other weak teams.


- Wins over EWU & Cal Poly came when those opponents weren't at 100%


- Relatively weak 8-4 resume means it's likely auto-bid or bust.



Montana

Optimism - No bad losses and tough road schedule.
- Could end up with 2 wins over winning teams (MSU & Sac).
- Get MSU at home, where they've played noticeably better.
- Lone remaining road opponent is weak.

Skepticism - MSU could be their only good win, and they could end up 7-5.
- Home team has lost the last 5 Griz/Cat affairs.
- Won't tie for first in the standings.


- Lost to Cal Poly, who should end up 8-4.



Montana St.

Optimism - In for sure if they win out.
- Beat Montana in Missoula the last 2 tries.
- No bad losses.
- Solid chance of getting in even if they split the final 2.

Skepticism - Toughest remaining schedule (vs. ISU, @ UM).
- No good wins (though Sac & UCA could end up being decent ones).
- Lost to Cal Poly, which could be an issue if the Bobcats split.


- Haven't yet looked good in November.

[dudeitsaid]

Reasons for Optimism & Skepticism

I'm not including EWU in this analysis because they're a lock to get in. The PSU game should only be the difference between seed & no seed.


Cal Poly

Optimism - Playing really well now.
- Good wins over Montana, MSU, and a blowout of Sac.


- No reason they shouldn't win out with Davis & San Diego left.
Skepticism - Lousy early-season performances hurt their resume.
- Won't tie for first in the standings.



Idaho St.

Optimism - Won 5 in a row (4 against DI)
- Beat CP and hammered Sac.
- No bad losses.
- In for sure if they win out.

Skepticism - Didn't play an FCS team out of conference.
- Have to play MSU in Bozeman.


- Probably can't afford to lose with 2 non-D1 wins (one of which ended up close).
- Have only beaten Weber 2 times in the last 29 meetings.



NAU

Optimism - Will get the auto-bid if they win out.
- 2 good wins over EWU & Cal Poly.
- Won 4 in a row.
- Easy remaining schedule.

Skepticism - 2 bad losses to SoDak & NoCo.
- Multiple close calls against other weak teams.


- Wins over EWU & Cal Poly came when those opponents weren't at 100%


- Relatively weak 8-4 resume means it's likely auto-bid or bust.



Montana

Optimism - No bad losses and tough road schedule.
- Could end up with 2 wins over winning teams (MSU & Sac).
- Get MSU at home, where they've played noticeably better.
- Lone remaining road opponent is weak.

Skepticism - MSU could be their only good win, and they could end up 7-5.
- Home team has lost the last 5 Griz/Cat affairs.
- Won't tie for first in the standings.


- Lost to Cal Poly, who should end up 8-4.



Montana St.

Optimism - In for sure if they win out.
- Beat Montana in Missoula the last 2 tries.
- No bad losses.
- Solid chance of getting in even if they split the final 2.

Skepticism - Toughest remaining schedule (vs. ISU, @ UM).
- No good wins (though Sac & UCA could end up being decent ones).
- Lost to Cal Poly, which could be an issue if the Bobcats split.


- Haven't yet looked good in November.



Excellent summary!

You note that ISU is in if they win out. MSU has a good chance even if they split. Assuming NAU wins out and gets the autobid, and EWU is already in, that would be four teams for the Big Sky. However, you note that it is also likely that Cal Poly wins out as well. I think this scenario is very realistic. In that case, who do you think gets selected? I am thinking more and more, the BSC could realistically get four into the field. In this scenario, you have to take two of three from ISU, MSU, and Cal Poly, who do you take?

I suppose ISU as they would have head to head over both MSU and Cal Poly. Then Cal Poly over MSU because they have 8 Division 1 wins, and the head to head? I guess that's what I would assume. Once again, these last two weeks are going to be very interesting!

[robsnotes4u]

Those are good visuals. Thanks for posting those.

It will be interesting to see how the various ratings change as the next couple of weeks play out. Of course, those who lose will have their ratings go down. And some of the SOS could change as well based on the performance of teams one each particular schedule. In any case, these last two weeks are going to be very interesting, as it seems like several various scenarios are in place.

In the worst case scenario, what is the lowest number of teams the BSC gets into the playoffs? In the case NAU drops a game, and EWU gets the autobid, is it conceivable the BSC only get two?!? I personally doubt it, but if the other four teams in the playoff picture all lose at least one game, it could be very interesting seeing who is selected. It would take Cal Poly losing it's last two. NAU losing one or two of their last two. ISU losing to MSU. MSU losing to UM. And UM losing to SUU. Hard to imagine, but if that happened, they'd have to select an at large from MSU, Cal Poly, and possibly NAU. That would be wacky!

I don't look at it as a conference. I think you take the resume of each team and compare with the others. Whatever the criteria the committee uses.

The main criteria is D! wins, sounds like 8 (by the video) is big in a 12 game season, and who those wins were against. There are a lot of scenarios across all of FCS. Take the top teams of the MVC, and compare those resumes to the BSC.

Youngstown State
7 D1 wins can get to 8 by going 1-1
2 wins by teams with winning records and could get to 3 or 4
Sagarin rank in FCS 14
Sagarin SOS in FCS 18

NDSU no discussion needed

South Dakota State
5 D1 wins can get to 7
3 wins over teams with winning records
Beat Cal Poly, So. Utah, N. Iowa, and Indiana State.
Sagarin ranking in FCS 6
Sagarin SOS in FCS 1

Northern Iowa
6 wins in the FCS can get to 8
2 wins over teams with winning records, can get to 3
Beat Illinois State, and NDUS back to back last two weekends, trending the right way.
Sagarin ranking in the FCS 4
Sagarin SOS in FCS 6

Indiana State
6 wins against D1 can get to 8 (plays Youngstown)
3 wins against teams with winning records
Beat Northern Iowa
Sagarin ranking in FCS 15
Sagarin SOS in FCS 4

I am a fan of the BSC, have been for years, so this hurts. What is your conclusion on these resumes versus the BSC I posted earlier?

Here is a link to an excel spreadsheet of rankings by sagarin, wins/losses, and SOS if you want to look at other conferences and teams

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3o8myqa99j74g56/FCS%20Nov%208.xlsx?dl=0

[mvemjsunpx]

Excellent summary!

You note that ISU is in if they win out. MSU has a good chance even if they split. Assuming NAU wins out and gets the autobid, and EWU is already in, that would be four teams for the Big Sky. However, you note that it is also likely that Cal Poly wins out as well. I think this scenario is very realistic. In that case, who do you think gets selected? I am thinking more and more, the BSC could realistically get four into the field. In this scenario, you have to take two of three from ISU, MSU, and Cal Poly, who do you take?

I suppose ISU as they would have head to head over both MSU and Cal Poly. Then Cal Poly over MSU because they have 8 Division 1 wins, and the head to head? I guess that's what I would assume. Once again, these last two weeks are going to be very interesting!

My guess is that's what would happen, too, unless the 6 DI wins thing for ISU kills them. How much head-to-head affects things versus other factors has varied over the years. MSU got in over PSU in 2006 even though PSU's resume was way better due to the head-to-head, but Weber was not able to deny Montana the #4-seed in 2008 despite Weber winning the tiebreaker for the conference title.

My prediction at this point is that CP, NAU, and Montana will win out and that ISU will win in Bozeman. That leaves the ISU/Weber game in which anything could happen given the unusual history between those two rivals. That actually would leave a chance for 5 teams (all except MSU) to get in depending on how the rest of FCS shakes out.

Some MVFC, CAA, and Southland cannibalism would be very helpful right now. A Jacksonville State win over EIU this week would also be nice since the Panthers can still get the auto. We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year. Two pluses are that the SoCon & NEC should be one-bid leagues. The MEAC, on the other hand, has a chance to get multiple teams in since SCSU is in line for the auto & BCU doesn't play NC A&T.

[MTfan4life]

It is all right here from a CURRENT Committee Member. As he states different committees do things differently.



Just paraphrasing here: "even if we don't finish well, I'll make sure and talk us up because even though I don't get a vote, I am the Valley rep and get to talk about the teams in our conference, including Northern Iowa."

[robsnotes4u]

Just paraphrasing here: "even if we don't finish well, I'll make sure and talk us up because even though I don't get a vote, I am the Valley rep and get to talk about the teams in our conference, including Northern Iowa."

As you would expect for any Committee member to do for his team and conference.

Do you know how the Committee is selected?

[robsnotes4u]

My guess is that's what would happen, too, unless the 6 DI wins thing for ISU kills them. How much head-to-head affects things versus other factors has varied over the years. MSU got in over PSU in 2006 even though PSU's resume was way better due to the head-to-head, but Weber was not able to deny Montana the #4-seed in 2008 despite Weber winning the tiebreaker for the conference title.

My prediction at this point is that CP, NAU, and Montana will win out and that ISU will win in Bozeman. That leaves the ISU/Weber game in which anything could happen given the unusual history between those two rivals. That actually would leave a chance for 5 teams (all except MSU) to get in depending on how the rest of FCS shakes out.

Some MVFC, CAA, and Southland cannibalism would be very helpful right now. A Jacksonville State win over EIU this week would also be nice since the Panthers can still get the auto. We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year. Two pluses are that the SoCon & NEC should be one-bid leagues. The MEAC, on the other hand, has a chance to get multiple teams in since SCSU is in line for the auto & BCU doesn't play NC A&T.

I predict ISU, NAU and Cal Poly win out. Leaving the Brawl as game for bragging rights only.

[MTfan4life]

As you would expect for any Committee member to do for his team and conference.


Actually I would expect or at least hope for any committee member to be as minimally biased as possible. Get a bunch of homers in the room and nothing will get done because they'll each want their own teams.

Do you know how the Committee is selected?
A dart board and a map of the schools within each of the 4 regions taped over the board. Also, once selected you must get at least a 25 on the Wonderlic.

[wapiti]

If the Griz get in, they'll be at home in the first round. All first-round games are unseeded & hosts are determined by bid—UM will always win the bid war.

I thought seeds 5, 6, 7, and 8 played in the first round and were gauranteed a home game. If that is so, that is where the griz would land and thus not be hosting any playoff games.
Unless the committee makes a business decision, for that is the griz's only hope.

[kalm]

I thought seeds 5, 6, 7, and 8 played in the first round and were gauranteed a home game. If that is so, that is where the griz would land and thus not be hosting any playoff games.
Unless the committee makes a business decision, for that is the griz's only hope.

1-8 have byes.

[wapiti]

1-8 have byes.
Thanks for the clairification. If the griz make the playoffs then they do have a good chance to host a first round game.

[veinup]

i dont see the griz making it.

[dudeitsaid]

Actually I would expect or at least hope for any committee member to be as minimally biased as possible. Get a bunch of homers in the room and nothing will get done because they'll each want their own teams.


I see your point here. But the the committee members should be the subject matter experts concerning their own conference, and be able to bring up the extenuating circumstances of teams in their conferences that other committee members may not know of. For example, if Cal Poly is a bubble team, I would expect that the Big Sky representative would bring up that their initial season performance was somewhat related to some challenging off season player losses and drama that happened unexpectedly and without a lot of time to adjust. But as the season progressed, they did adjust, and that team that got smoked by SDSU would actually give them a game now.

I'm sure many teams, especially on the bubble that could have some discussion come out that each conference rep could add that would be relevant. And maybe that's what you meant by "minimally biased". Everyone is somewhat biased. But when the rubber hits the road, the committee needs to be able to come to a consensus. I just think that with their primary focus being their own teams and schools, then their own conferences, knowledge of other conference team particulars may not be as strong.

[dudeitsaid]

My guess is that's what would happen, too, unless the 6 DI wins thing for ISU kills them. How much head-to-head affects things versus other factors has varied over the years. MSU got in over PSU in 2006 even though PSU's resume was way better due to the head-to-head, but Weber was not able to deny Montana the #4-seed in 2008 despite Weber winning the tiebreaker for the conference title.

My prediction at this point is that CP, NAU, and Montana will win out and that ISU will win in Bozeman. That leaves the ISU/Weber game in which anything could happen given the unusual history between those two rivals. That actually would leave a chance for 5 teams (all except MSU) to get in depending on how the rest of FCS shakes out.

Some MVFC, CAA, and Southland cannibalism would be very helpful right now. A Jacksonville State win over EIU this week would also be nice since the Panthers can still get the auto. We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year. Two pluses are that the SoCon & NEC should be one-bid leagues. The MEAC, on the other hand, has a chance to get multiple teams in since SCSU is in line for the auto & BCU doesn't play NC A&T.

I think 6 D1 wins, and any team this year is out. With many teams playing twelve game seasons, there will be too many teams to choose from with more. If any conference does get a team with 6, I'd have to think it would be the MVFC. But even at that, I don't see it happening. ISU's only chance is to win out.

[robsnotes4u]

I think 6 D1 wins, and any team this year is out. With many teams playing twelve game seasons, there will be too many teams to choose from with more. If any conference does get a team with 6, I'd have to think it would be the MVFC. But even at that, I don't see it happening. ISU's only chance is to win out.

Interesting. Last year, only 5 teams with less 8 D1 wins made the playoffs. Three of those five were auto bids.

[dudeitsaid]

Interesting. Last year, only 5 teams with less 8 D1 wins made the playoffs. Three of those five were auto bids.

If ISU wins out, they will only have 7 D1 wins. But, they will be on a 6 game win streak, and two of those wins would be against Cal Poly and MSU. If they can pull it off, and there is a group of 7 D1 win teams to choose from for the field, even if there were only three, I have to think they would get very strong consideration. Would they be able to overcome their own reputation? I don't know if they are really getting respect even to this day. Would they be hamstrung by the BSC playoff performance last year? One of those 7 D1 teams was SUU, who got schooled. If so, that will be unfortunate. With Arias being a senior, who knows what ISU will be like next year.

[KUlawJack]

If ISU wins out, they will only have 7 D1 wins. But, they will be on a 6 game win streak, and two of those wins would be against Cal Poly and MSU. If they can pull it off, and there is a group of 7 D1 win teams to choose from for the field, even if there were only three, I have to think they would get very strong consideration. Would they be able to overcome their own reputation? I don't know if they are really getting respect even to this day. Would they be hamstrung by the BSC playoff performance last year? One of those 7 D1 teams was SUU, who got schooled. If so, that will be unfortunate. With Arias being a senior, who knows what ISU will be like next year.

If SDSU wins out, we will be one of those teams with 7 D-I wins along with Idaho State. I still loathe that we had to play a DIII or play no one that week.

[dudeitsaid]

If SDSU wins out, we will be one of those teams with 7 D-I wins along with Idaho State. I still loathe that we had to play a DIII or play no one that week.

If that happens, you guys would likely be taken over ISU, IMO. I do think the MVFC is going to get stronger consideration this year. And wins over Cal Poly and UNI will look mighty good.

[tomq04]

MVFC got 2 in last year and the BSC got 4? Don't be shocked by that switching, or going to 3/3 imo.

[Green26]

I thought seeds 5, 6, 7, and 8 played in the first round and were gauranteed a home game. If that is so, that is where the griz would land and thus not be hosting any playoff games.
Unless the committee makes a business decision, for that is the griz's only hope.

The 8 seeds don't play in the first round, as someone else already answered, I now see.

[dudeitsaid]

MVFC got 2 in last year and the BSC got 4? Don't be shocked by that switching, or going to 3/3 imo.

It would take a crazy end of season where each team in contention craps the bed when they can (someone in the ISU/MSU game, and MSU/UM game is going to get a win) for that to happen. I don't see the BSC getting less than three, and if NAU wins the autobid, and Poly and MSU win out, the BSC getting four in.

[wapiti]

The Big Sky is still very interesting after this past weekends games.
Idaho State beat Cal Poly
UM lost to EWU

EWU is in. The game against PSU will be for earning a seed.

NAU is still two wins from the conference autobid. @UND, and hosting SUU.
NAU needs one more win to earn consideration and two more to guarantee a spot.
NAU has struggled on the road this year so the UND game may be a toss up.

Idaho State needs two more wins for the 7 Div 1 win total, but they may still get in with a loss to MSU and beating the BBQ.
Because the Div 2 games still get some value.

MSU hosts Idaho State and visit UM. Neither game will be an easy one. MSU could go 2-0 or 0-2 in these next two games or split.
one W will earn them consideration, 2 W's will get them in for sure. 2 L's and they will be out.

UM must win the next two to just get consideration. One more L and they are out. @SUU, hosting MSU
Neither of these games will be easy for the griz.

Cal Poly needs one more w to get consideration and two more to get a bid. One more loss will put them a 5 L's and most likely out. So CP is in a must win situation. Hosting UC Davis, @San Diego. They should win both of these games.

[robsnotes4u]

The Big Sky is still very interesting after this past weekends games.
Idaho State beat Cal Poly
UM lost to EWU

EWU is in. The game against PSU will be for earning a seed.

NAU is still two wins from the conference autobid. @UND, and hosting SUU.
NAU needs one more win to earn consideration and two more to guarantee a spot.
NAU has struggled on the road this year so the UND game may be a toss up.

Idaho State needs two more wins for the 7 Div 1 win total, but they may still get in with a loss to MSU and beating the BBQ.
Because the Div 2 games still get some value.

MSU hosts Idaho State and visit UM. Neither game will be an easy one. MSU could go 2-0 or 0-2 in these next two games or split.
one W will earn them consideration, 2 W's will get them in for sure. 2 L's and they will be out.

UM must win the next two to just get consideration. One more L and they are out. @SUU, hosting MSU
Neither of these games will be easy for the griz.

Cal Poly needs one more w to get consideration and two more to get a bid. One more loss will put them a 5 L's and most likely out. So CP is in a must win situation. Hosting UC Davis, @San Diego. They should win both of these games.

good analysisxthumbsupx