Playoff Eliminators

[superman7515]

Just a few games this coming weekend that should add some clarity to the postseason:

Idaho State (7-3, 5 D1 wins) at Montana State (7-3, 6 D1 wins): Will 7 D1 wins be enough to grab an at-large spot for a team that finishes in 4th place from the Big Sky? Montana State better hope so if they lose because that's the best they could hope for. I don't think it will though. A loss by Idaho State means only 6 D1 wins are possible, a loss by Montana State means only 7 D1 wins are possible, but they'd probably be sitting behind at least Eastern Washington, Northern Arizona (very favorable schedule remaining), and Idaho State with Montana and Cal Poly also having a chance to jump the Bobcats. It's quite possible they could finish anywhere from 4th to 6th in the Big Sky if they lose to Idaho State. Loser is out.

Charleston Southern (7-3, 5 D1 wins) at Liberty (7-3, 6 D1 wins): Both teams are clinging to slim playoff hopes if we're looking at it strictly from an at-large point of view. Charleston Southern has to win out to get to 7 D1 wins, and that includes beating the Georgia Bulldogs, so realistically they're out already, but a loss this week makes it a moot point. Liberty still has the ability to win the Big South conference, but if they can't beat Charleston Southern at home, a road win against undefeated Coastal Carolina looks even tougher, and back to back losses would have them sitting at home. Loser is out.

James Madison (7-3, 7 D1 wins) at Richmond (7-3, 7 D1 wins): They've already reached 7 D1 wins, but both teams have warts on their records. James Madison with a loss to Delaware at home, Richmond with a loss to Maine on the road. Either team can still make it to 8 wins even if they lose Saturday, but if James Madison loses Saturday and beats Elon the next week to finish 8-4, their best win will be against a border line William & Mary team who may or may not make the playoffs themselves. The flip side is that if Richmond loses on Saturday, they still have the win over Villanova to fall back on, but a rivalry game to end the season against a hungry William & Mary team trying to make the playoffs themselves could derail it all, and we all know that anything can happen in a rivalry game. There are plenty of MVFC teams that are more than willing to take the spot of someone who slips up. Loser is sweating on Selection Sunday.

Northern Iowa (6-4, 6 D1 wins) at Southern Illinois (6-4, 5 D1 wins): Northern Iowa can obviously still make an argument for inclusion if they end up at 7-4 thanks to the win over North Dakota State, but with 7 teams currently with a conference record as good or better than the Panthers, that 7-4 record would depend greatly on how far they end up back in the conference, and Clenz will tell you that's not a spot that UNI wants to put themselves in with the selection committee. Southern Illinois on the other hand must win out just to reach 7 D1 wins, so if they lose, they're out. I'd like to say that Northern Iowa is sweating with a loss and Southern Illinois is out, but I think UNI could end up too far back in the conference standings to overcome it, the win over NDSU notwithstanding. Loser is out, UNI sweats, but probably on the "out" side of sweating, on Selection Sunday.​

Indiana State (6-4, 6 D1 wins) at Youngstown State (7-3, 7 D1 wins): Indiana State has an FBS win, the head-to-head victory over UNI, and a win over possible playoff team Liberty, so even with a loss this week, they can make a case. Then again, as I said with Northern Iowa, you don't want to end up too far back in the conference and leave it up to the selection committee. Youngstown State already has the requisite 7 D1 wins, but if they lose this week, they have NDSU waiting the next, so it's very likely they would be sitting at 7 D1 wins with back-to-back losses heading towards the playoffs and praying for a selection committee favor. Loser is sweating, but probably on the "out" side of sweating,on Selection Sunday.

Bryant (8-1, 7 D1 wins) at Sacred Heart (8-2, 7 D1 wins): Again, both teams have 7 D1 wins already, but the SOS is waaaay down on the list, so an at-large bid will be difficult to come by with the logjam of 7 and 8 win teams that will be available. Bryant's best win would be against Maine or Stony Brook, both in the bottom half of the CAA. Sacred Heart's best win would be against Delaware, probably sitting 6-6 at the end of the season, and with a bad loss to St. Francis. Loser is out.

[TheRevSFA]

If mcneese loses to SELA, they'd be eliminated

[JayJ79]

but with 7 teams currently with a conference record as good or better than the Panthers,

false. as far as CONFERENCE record goes, there is NDSU and ISUr at 5-1, and UNI and YSU at 4-2.

[superman7515]

false. as far as CONFERENCE record goes, there is NDSU and ISUr at 5-1, and UNI and YSU at 4-2.

Ah, thanks, I was looking at the wrong line. Worst case scenario, they go 4-4 in conference, and there are still 7 other teams that can finish 4-4 or better in the MVFC.

[smilo]

It often seems like there is a 7 win barometer for the Big Sky and an 8 win minimum for the MVFC.

Not a bad writeup by any means and thank you for highlighting key games, but there seems to be this universal issue.

[MTfan4life]

It often seems like there is a 7 win barometer for the Big Sky and an 8 win minimum for the MVFC.

Not a bad writeup by any means and thank you for highlighting key games, but there seems to be this universal issue.

Often, huh? How often does that happen? One team from the Big Sky gets in ahead of one team from the Valley and people complain like it's happened every single season.

In the past 7 seasons, there have been 3 at-large teams from the Big Sky get in with 7 D1 wins and 2 teams from the Valley get in with 7 D1 wins.

[JSUBison]

It often seems like there is a 7 win barometer for the Big Sky and an 8 win minimum for the MVFC.

Not a bad writeup by any means and thank you for highlighting key games, but there seems to be this universal issue.

All conferences are equal, but some conferences are more equal than others. --NCAA FCS Playoff committee

[MR. CHICKEN]

20018.......IT'S VALLEY BOY.....PARANOIA......AWK!

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

IMO, JMU would need to win out to receive an at large bid. A win on Saturdy would put them in great position as they finish the season at home hosting Elon. I wouldn't expect a bid at 8-4.

[paward]

Losing to Maine did not help us. We need to win out to feel comfortable. JMU is a must win for us to make it to the dance. It is as history has shown the only game that matters this week for us. They are the most improved team in CAA as of now. They always bring everything and luck with them. I hope we win but nothing is A sure thing when we play each other. Memo to JMU the game has been moved to Sunday, lol.

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

We'll agree to play on Sunday if you agree to play in good 'ol City Stadium. xpeacex

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

IMO, JMU would need to win out to receive an at large bid. A win on Saturdy would put them in great position as they finish the season at home hosting Elon. I wouldn't expect a bid at 8-4.

This depends on whether or not the CAA get three or four teams this year. Hard to say right now. Lots of football left these last two weeks.

If JMU loses @UR and then beats Elon, you have a team with no great wins and no bad losses, though you could argue Delaware is a bad loss depending on how they finish the season. The OP got it right - loser is not out, but sweating.

[Hammond, AMERICA]

If mcneese loses to SELA, they'd be eliminated

This is true. Although you could say that about any team in the SLC.

[ursus arctos horribilis]

It often seems like there is a 7 win barometer for the Big Sky and an 8 win minimum for the MVFC.

Not a bad writeup by any means and thank you for highlighting key games, but there seems to be this universal issue.

Where have you seen this? I'd really like someone to back this up once in a while instead of just throwing it out like it holds water.

[JMUNJ08]

We'll agree to play on Sunday if you agree to play in good 'ol City Stadium. xpeacex

Will never forget that wonderful place...Scotty's punt return forever burned in my mind...

[JMU-MRD-DAD]

Will never forget that wonderful place...Scotty's punt return forever burned in my mind...

I will never forget that game either....lol.....I torn my ACL on that play....I didn't jump that high!!!!

I will be at the game this Saturday pulling for the Dukes!!!!!!

GO DUKES

[UNIFanSince1983]

When UNI loses on Saturday they are out.

[Red & Black]

Often, huh? How often does that happen? One team from the Big Sky gets in ahead of one team from the Valley and people complain like it's happened every single season.

In the past 7 seasons, there have been 3 at-large teams from the Big Sky get in with 7 D1 wins and 2 teams from the Valley get in with 7 D1 wins.

Well, there goes that conspiracy theory.


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[skinny_uncle]

false. as far as CONFERENCE record goes, there is NDSU and ISUr at 5-1, and UNI and YSU at 4-2.

Looking farther, SDSU, Indy State and SIU are all 3-3. If you need to have a winning record in conference to get in, none of those can afford another loss.

[KUlawJack]

Looking farther, SDSU, Indy State and SIU are all 3-3. If you need to have a winning record in conference to get in, none of those can afford another loss.

I don't want to jinx us, but we have the easiest path, if you want to call it that, to get to 5-3.

[Houndawg]

I don't want to jinx us, but we have the easiest path, if you want to call it that, to get to 5-3.

and we have the hardest...

[CappinHard]

I agree that SDSU has the easiest path, here's to hoping that the rest of the MVFC sorts itself out to the point where SDSU is a no brainer. I still think SDSU gets in no matter what, if UNI wins the last 2 they're in, I think YSU might have to beat NDSU to get into the playoffs, which is harsh, but I don't see the committee taking 5 from the MVFC, and I don't see them leapfrogging SDSU, regardless of the head to head loss.

[IBleedYellow]

I agree that SDSU has the easiest path, here's to hoping that the rest of the MVFC sorts itself out to the point where SDSU is a no brainer. I still think SDSU gets in no matter what, if UNI wins the last 2 they're in, I think YSU might have to beat NDSU to get into the playoffs, which is harsh, but I don't see the committee taking 5 from the MVFC, and I don't see them leapfrogging SDSU, regardless of the head to head loss.

SDSU won't be in with that D2 win sitting in their back pocket, even with those good wins over Cal Poly, UNI and Indiana State.

[Houndawg]

SDSU won't be in with that D2 win sitting in their back pocket, even with those good wins over Cal Poly, UNI and Indiana State.

Sounds pretty harsh given that teams often find themselves looking for a team, any team, to fill a date and most can't afford to pay a counting team to travel. Didn't SHSU get in with 6 D1 wins?

[KUlawJack]

SDSU won't be in with that D2 win sitting in their back pocket, even with those good wins over Cal Poly, UNI and Indiana State.

Depends on what shakes out throughout the country. I believe we will get to 8-4. Coupled with some fortuitous bounces nationwide, we should be in. Need a few things to break our way. 7-3 in FCS with two losses without our starting QB. That's my story and I'm hoping the committee is buying it.

[KUlawJack]

Sounds pretty harsh given that teams often find themselves looking for a team, any team, to fill a date and most can't afford to pay a counting team to travel. Didn't SHSU get in with 6 D1 wins?

We tried. We offered some east coast teams a king's ransom to come play us and they declined. One of them was really close apparently and backed out at the last second. The D III we played would give any pioneer team all they could handle and beat a good portion of them. That's the unfortunate lack of distinction between D III and the PFL.

[RabidRabbit]

The one "reasonable" scenerio for SDSU to be left home, even if win out, is if they are sitting at 5-3, alone, and there are 4 teams ahead of them. That means that YSU wins both of their remaining games. As well as UNI. UNI, at 8-4, and 6-2 in MVFC, and winner over NDSU and ISU-R is a shoo-in to play-offs. Under this scenerio, UNI based on SOS, should be a seeded team. Likewise, NDSU may not be a seeded team, and would actually be 4th under MVFC tie-breaking procedures, having lost to both UNI and YSU (teams in a 6-2 tie for 2nd). This gets you 4 teams @ 8-4, all with D-I wins over top 10 rated teams, and a clear break to the next conference team (SDSU). Oh, ISU R would be auto-bid winner with 7-1 MVFC record.

The best finish in the MVFC for the Jacks is tied for 2nd @ 5-3 with UNI, ISU-B, and NDSU/ISU-R tied at 7-1. In that case, Jacks have tie breaker on both the other teams, and the committee can decide if want to take any/all 3. However, that would also be three 7 D-I win teams. IMHO, based on SOS, and #ranked team wins, and especially over other at-large competitors (Cal Poly, Liberty) I'd say all three get selected.

[IBleedYellow]

The one "reasonable" scenerio for SDSU to be left home, even if win out, is if they are sitting at 5-3, alone, and there are 4 teams ahead of them. That means that YSU wins both of their remaining games. As well as UNI. UNI, at 8-4, and 6-2 in MVFC, and winner over NDSU and ISU-R is a shoo-in to play-offs. Under this scenerio, UNI based on SOS, should be a seeded team. Likewise, NDSU may not be a seeded team, and would actually be 4th under MVFC tie-breaking procedures, having lost to both UNI and YSU (teams in a 6-2 tie for 2nd). This gets you 4 teams @ 8-4, all with D-I wins over top 10 rated teams, and a clear break to the next conference team (SDSU). Oh, ISU R would be auto-bid winner with 7-1 MVFC record.

The best finish in the MVFC for the Jacks is tied for 2nd @ 5-3 with UNI, ISU-B, and NDSU/ISU-R tied at 7-1. In that case, Jacks have tie breaker on both the other teams, and the committee can decide if want to take any/all 3. However, that would also be three 7 D-I win teams. IMHO, based on SOS, and #ranked team wins, and especially over other at-large competitors (Cal Poly, Liberty) I'd say all three get selected.

I stand by what I said. When the Jacks win out, the committee will keep them out because of the 7-4 record. I don't agree with it, but I've seen it happen before and I just have a hunch that the Rabbits won't be in.

On the other hand I could see the NCAA putting the Rabbits in for a close school to bus up to NDSU for a cheap road game...Ugh.

I really hope it's neither of those two options.

[Sycamore62]

The one "reasonable" scenerio for SDSU to be left home, even if win out, is if they are sitting at 5-3, alone, and there are 4 teams ahead of them. That means that YSU wins both of their remaining games. As well as UNI. UNI, at 8-4, and 6-2 in MVFC, and winner over NDSU and ISU-R is a shoo-in to play-offs. Under this scenerio, UNI based on SOS, should be a seeded team. Likewise, NDSU may not be a seeded team, and would actually be 4th under MVFC tie-breaking procedures, having lost to both UNI and YSU (teams in a 6-2 tie for 2nd). This gets you 4 teams @ 8-4, all with D-I wins over top 10 rated teams, and a clear break to the next conference team (SDSU). Oh, ISU R would be auto-bid winner with 7-1 MVFC record.

The best finish in the MVFC for the Jacks is tied for 2nd @ 5-3 with UNI, ISU-B, and NDSU/ISU-R tied at 7-1. In that case, Jacks have tie breaker on both the other teams, and the committee can decide if want to take any/all 3. However, that would also be three 7 D-I win teams. IMHO, based on SOS, and #ranked team wins, and especially over other at-large competitors (Cal Poly, Liberty) I'd say all three get selected.

I dont know how the committee would look at it but if ISUb and SDSU both went 8-4 but I guess the argument would be 8 D1 wins (including an FBS win) vs head to head win with 7 D1 wins

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I think SDSU is in at 8-4. The 3 game winning streak to the end of the year combined with the return of a key player will do it for them. NDSU, ISUr and SDSU are the 3 teams I feel most confident about from the MVFC....

[Sycamore62]

I think SDSU is in at 8-4. The 3 game winning streak to the end of the year combined with the return of a key player will do it for them. NDSU, ISUr and SDSU are the 3 teams I feel most confident about from the MVFC....

We lost a game to a potential seed by a last play fg without our starting QB also. we'd have a 2 game winning streak and 4-1 in last 5.

I have a feeling selection sunday is gonna have a lot of "Ya, buts"

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

We lost a game to a potential seed by a last play fg without our starting QB also. we'd have a 2 game winning streak and 4-1 in last 5.

I have a feeling selection sunday is gonna have a lot of "Ya, buts"

I still think YSU beats ISUb to kill them and then NDSU smokes the 'Guins...

[KUlawJack]

I still think YSU beats ISUb to kill them and then NDSU smokes the 'Guins...

Your tune on the Jacks has changed from the start of the season. I like that it has. xthumbsupx

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We lost a game to a potential seed by a last play fg without our starting QB also. we'd have a 2 game winning streak and 4-1 in last 5.

I have a feeling selection sunday is gonna have a lot of "Ya, buts"

Yes, lots of potential 8-4's all over the country.

[Panther-State]

Yes, lots of potential 8-4's all over the country.

And hopefully it's the ones from the MVFC that get the nod.

[MacThor]

I will never forget that game either....lol.....I torn my ACL on that play....I didn't jump that high!!!!

I'll never forget that game either, because we didn't lose again in 2008. :)

[spdram]

Agreed Mac, it was the game that launched the run