What do those Out of Conference games tell us now?

[dudeitsaid]

I alluded in another thread to the fact that I don't think the MVFC record of 23-1 versus OOC FCS opponents has as much luster as maybe the majority think it does. Are there some good wins in that number? Sure! SDSU has a win against a Cal Poly team that was reeling at the beginning of the season due to some crazy off the field issues. I personally think the score would look a lot different now that they've gotten their stuff together.

NDSU has a decent win against UM. Indiana State has a solid win over Liberty as well. But other than what, why is the MVFC so propped up? Maybe 23-1 was impressive in the early parts of the season, but now that time has told us about the quality of the teams, does that accomplishment really stand out as a defining proof that the MVFC really is light years ahead of every other conference? Does it really mean that come selection time, and God forbid, the selection committee leaves out MVFC teams like last year, we should again be subjected to the collective frustration of Valley fans who think their team should get in because over teams of the same or better records just because conference affiliation should be the tipping point? The MVFC has beaten most of those OOC FCS teams, but how many of those can truly be characterized as good wins? And how many teams with the same OOC schedule would not have done very close to the same?

Below is a list of the MVFC OOC wins. Almost 60% of their games were played against teams that are rated in the bottom half of all FCS teams on the Massey Composite (I chose to use this because it takes a multitude of rankings and creates a consensus position for each team. It's not just one computer, one person, or one group's thoughts on the standings of these teams). Only 1/3 of all of the OOC teams MVFC teams played have a .500 or better record! One of every four OOC games were played against teams rated in the bottom 25% of teams on the Massey composite.





MVFC OOC FCS opponents









Team

Massey Rating

Record
Win %
Win Strength Rating


NDSU
Weber State
95
29
0 of 9
1%
0.1
W



UM
25
99
6 of 9
67%
66.0
W



Incarnate Word
106
18
2 of 9
22%
4.0
W


Ill St
Miss Valley St
118
6
2 of 9
22%
1.3
W



E Illinois
29
95
4 of 9
44%
42.2
W



Austin Peay
107
17
1 of 9
11%
1.9
W


YSU
Duquesne
54
70
5 of 9
56%
38.9
W



Butler
104
20
4 of 9
44%
8.9
W



St. Francis
65
59
4 of 9
44%
26.2
W


Ind St
Tenn Tech
82
42
3 of 9
33%
14.0
W



Liberty
16
108
6 of 9
67%
72.0
W


UNI
UNC
77
47
3 of 9
33%
15.7
W



Tenn Tech
82
42
3 of 9
33%
14.0
W


SDSU
Cal Poly
26
98
6 of 9
67%
65.3
W



SUU
68
56
2 of 9
22%
12.4
W


SIU
E Illinois
29
95
4 of 9
44%
42.2
W



SEMO
63
61
4 of 9
44%
27.1
W


MSU
Northwestern
35
89
4 of 9
44%
39.6
W



UND
80
44
3 of 9
33%
14.7
W



UCA
42
82
5 of 10
50%
41.0
W


WIU
Valparaiso
122
2
2 of 9
22%
0.4
W



Drake
89
35
5 of 9
56%
19.4
W


USD
UM
25
99
6 of 9
67%
66.0
L



NAU
39
124
6 of 9
67%
82.7
W



Interestingly, the average "ranking" of the teams the MVFC has faced on the Massey Composite is 65.8.

Also, on this list, in attempting to get a visual of the strength of each opponent that goes beyond Massey's rating, I created a forumula by multiplying the equivalent of the teams win percentage times their standing in the Massey rating. The reason I did this is because I want to believe a win against a team that has won games versus lost game should mean something. Not every record is equal. For example, the win against EIU currently seems to be a better win than SEMO, even though both teams have the same records. I know that numbers never tell the full story, but it's one way of looking at things. More than likely, I'm just having too much fun with Excel! But interestingly, the average for the conference on that opponent strength formula is 29.8. That doesn't mean a whole lot, except it is not that strong.

Of course, we can do the same with the CAA.



CAA OOC FCS opponents











Massey Rating

Record
Win %
Opp Strength Rating


UNH
Lehigh
84
40
2 of 8
25%
10.0
W



Dartmouth
41
83
5 of 7
71%
59.3
W


Richmond
Morehead
117
7
3 of 9
33%
2.3
W



Hampton
99
25
2 of 9
22%
5.6
W



Liberty
16
108
6 of 9
67%
72.0
W


Nova
Fordham
15
109
8 of 9
89%
96.9
W



Penn
98
26
1 of 7
14%
3.7
W



Morgan St
74
50
5 of 9
56%
27.8
W


Deleware
Deleware St
112
12
2 of 8
25%
3.0
W



Colgate
67
57
4 of 9
44%
25.3
W



Sacred Heart
38
86
7 of 9
78%
66.9
L


Stony Brook
Bryant
20
104
7 of 8
88%
91.0
L



UND
80
44
3 of 9
33%
14.7
L


JMU
Lehigh
84
40
2 of 8
25%
10.0
W



St Francis
65
59
4 of 9
44%
26.2
W



Charlotte
85
39
3 of 8
38%
14.6
W


Albany
Holy Cross
69
55
3 of 9
33%
18.3
W



Cent Conn
101
23
2 of 9
29%
6.6
W



Columbia
119
5
0 of 7
1%
0.0
W



Colgate
67
57
4 of 9
44%
25.3
W


W&M
Hampton
99
25
2 of 9
29%
7.1
W



Norfolk St
90
34
4 of 9
44%
15.1
W



Lafayette
72
52
3 of 9
33%
17.3
W


Maine
Norfolk St
90
34
4 of 9
44%
15.1
W



Bryant
20
104
7 of 8
88%
91.0
L


Towson
Cent Conn
101
23
2 of 9
29%
6.6
L



Deleware St
112
12
2 of 8
25%
3.0
W



NC Central
86
38
4 of 9
44%
16.9
W


Elon
NC A&T
48
76
7 of 9
78%
59.1
L



Charlotte
85
39
3 of 8
38%
14.6
W



Coastal Carolina
5
119
9 of 9
100%
119.0
L


Rhode Island
Fordham
15
109
8 of 9
89%
96.9
L



Brown
70
54
4 of 7
57%
30.9
L



Cent Conn
101
23
2 of 9
29%
6.6
L



After some help on locating some OOC games I missed (DOH!), the CAA looks similar to the MVFC. About one third of their OOC opponents currently have a winning record! Close to three quarters of their OOC opponents are currently in the bottom half of the Massey ratings! Their overall strength of opponents when using the function of rating times win % was actually slightly higher than the 29.8 of the MVFC. It was 31.7. The CAA won 71% of those OOC FCS games, a percentage quite a bit lower than the MVFC, with similar competition.

Clenz talks about the magic formula of the Big Sky, but if the MVFC and CAA get more in than the Big Sky this year, I think they may have actually found the secret formula. Play down! Prop your OOC record up! Have a dominant team like NDSU whose success you can somehow claim a portion of. And watch the rankings and computer ratings respond!



BSC OOC FCS opponents










Massey Rating

Record
Win %
Opp Strength


EWU
SHSU
23
101
5 of 9
56%
56.1
W



MSU
28
96
6 of 9
67%
64.0
W


Cal Poly
SDSU
14
110
5 of 9
56%
61.1
L



PSU
79
45
3 of 9
33%
15.0
W


NAU
Abeline Christian
55
69
5 of 10
50%
34.5
W



USD
60
64
2 of 9
22%
14.2
L


UM
USD
60
64
2 of 9
22%
14.2
W



NDSU
1
123
9 of 9
100%
123.0
L


MSU
UCA
42
82
5 of 10
50%
41.0
W



EWU
8
116
8 of 10
80%
92.8
L


SUU
SELA
24
100
6 of 9
67%
66.7
L



SDSU
14
110
5 of 9
56%
61.1
L


PSU
Cal Poly
26
98
6 of 9
67%
65.3
L


UNC
UNI
10
114
5 of 9
56%
63.3
L



Houston Baptist
121
3
2 of 9
22%
0.7
W


Sac State
Incarnate Word
106
18
2 of 9
22%
4.0
W



Weber State
95
29
0 of 9
1%
0.1
W


UND
RMU
110
14
1 of 8
13%
1.8
W



Stony Brook
49
75
4 of 9
44%
33.3
W



Missouri State
22
102
4 of 9
44%
45.3
L


Weber
NDSU
1
123
9 of 9
100%
123.0
L



Sac St
62
62
4 of 9
44%
27.6
L



SF Austin
36
88
6 of 9
67%
58.7
L



The Big Sky won less than half of their FCS OOC games. And with the playoff performance last year, I can see why people would be down on the conference. But I would submit that SUU had little business being in the playoffs, and NAU wasn't that strong last year either. Expect them to get run over this year if they make it as well, no offense Lumberjacks. UM just got flat outplayed! And EWU did OK. This year, I could see MSU, Cal Poly, ISU, EWU, and maybe UM being solid if they get a little more consistent.

That being said, while the MVFC and CAA played weaker OOC FCS opponents overall, the Big Sky as a whole stronger. Only 6 of their FCS OOC games were against the bottom half of the FCS according to the Massey composite! Almost 60% of the teams played currently have a .500 or better record. The average Massey rating of their opponents are about 20 SPOTS HIGHER than either the MVFC or CAA opponents. And using my weird little formula, the opponents strength was 44.5, compared to 29.8 for the MVFC and 19.0 for the CAA.

I have to think that either the CAA or MVFC playing our OOC schedule would not have fared nearly as well as they have. And maybe all three conferences are much more comparable to one another than some of the rankings, polls, and opinions might suggest.

Let the feasting on me begin...

If I can, I will try to measure out some of the other conferences as well if this is interesting to any of you.

***If anyone else notices mistakes, which are bound to happen with data entry, let me know. They are not intentional, and I'm trying to be as accurate as possible.

[robsnotes4u]

Nice work

[dudeitsaid]

The OVC had an even tougher OOC schedule, based on current ratings and performance. 71% of the teams they played (10 of 14) currently have winning records. The average ranking of their opponents is slightly higher than the BSC at 41. But 9 of the 14 teams they played are currently rated 24 or higher on Massey's composite. And with that strong schedule, they only won 35% of those match-ups. There were two solid wins, with Jax St beating Chatty, and SEMO beating SELA.



OVC OOC FCS opponents










Massey Rating
Record
Win %
Opp Strength Rating


JSU
Chattanooga
13
111
6 of 9
67%
74.0
W


EKU
RMU
110
14
1 of 8
13%
1.8
W



Morehead
117
7
3 of 9
33%
2.3
W


EIU
SIU
19
105
5 of 9
56%
58.3
L



Ill St
2
122
8 of 9
89%
108.4
L


Tenn Martin
UCA
42
82
5 of 10
50%
41.0
L


SEMO
SIU
19
105
5 of 9
56%
58.3
L



SELA
24
100
6 of 9
67%
66.7
W


Tenn Tech
Indiana St
7
117
6 of 9
67%
78.0
L



UNI
10
114
5 of 9
56%
63.3
L


Austin Peay
Chattanooga
13
111
6 of 9
67%
74.0
L



Ill St
2
122
8 of 9
89%
108.4
L


Tenn St
Alabama St
88
36
4 of 9
44%
16.0
L



Jackson St
116
8
3 of 9
33%
2.7
W




The SoCon is below:

The SoCon won 47% of their FCS OOC matchups. However, the only win against a team in the top half of the Massey Composite was Western Carolina's win over Presbyterian. Just over 50% of the FCS OOC teams played were in the lower half of the Massey Ratings, so their OOC schedule was fairly balanced. Slightly less than half of the teams had a winning record. The OOC schedule wasn't bad, but the lack of quality wins against the vast majority of those teams could hurt.



SoCon OOC FCS opponents











Massey Rating

Record
Win %
Opp Strength Rating


Chattanooga
Jax St
4
120
7 of 8
88%
105.0
L



Austin Peay
107
17
1 of 9
11%
1.9
W


Western Carolina
Presbyterian
50
74
5 of 9
56%
41.1
W


Wofford
Gardner-Webb
81
43
4 of 9
44%
19.1
L


Citadel
Coastal Carolina
5
119
9 of 9
100%
119.0
L



Charleston Sth
45
79
6 of 9
67%
52.7
L



Gardner-Webb
81
43
4 of 9
44%
19.1
W



Charlotte
85
39
3 of 8
38%
14.6
W


Furman
Gardner-Webb
81
43
4 of 9
44%
19.1
W



Presbyterian
50
74
5 of 9
56%
41.1
L



S Car St
47
77
6 of 9
67%
51.3
L



Coastal Carolina
5
119
9 of 9
100%
119.0
L


VMI
Bucknell
32
92
7 of 8
88%
80.5
L



Davidson
124
1
1 of 8
13%
0.1
W



Gardner-Webb
81
43
4 of 9
44%
19.1
L


Mercer
Stetson
114
10
4 of 9
44%
4.4
W



Austin Peay
107
17
1 of 9
11%
1.9
W




Big South below:

Almost 58% of the teams were in the lower half of the Massey Ratings. 31% currently have winning records. But they have won over 80% of those FCS OOC games. The best win appears to be Liberty over Bryant. After that, the next best if using the Massey ratings is #43 Western Carolina. The average Massey Composite rating for those teams is 72.3. My formula brings up 27.0, the weakest of all of the conferences thus far.



Big South FCS opponents










Massey Rating
Record
Win %
Opp Strength Rating


Coastal Carolina
Citadel
56
68
3 of 9
33%
22.7
W



N Car A&T
48
76
7 of 9
78%
59.1
W



S Car St
47
77
6 of 9
67%
51.3
W



Florida A&M
108
16
2 of 9
22%
3.6
W



Elon
94
30
1 of 9
11%
3.3
W



Furman
87
37
2 of 9
22%
8.2
W


Liberty
Norfolk St
90
34
4 of 9
44%
15.1
W



Bryant
20
104
7 of 8
88%
91.0
W



Indiana St
7
117
6 of 9
67%
78.0
L



Richmond
12
112
7 of 9
78%
87.1
L


Presbyterian
Furman
87
37
2 of 9
22%
8.2
W



W Carolina
43
81
6 of 9
67%
54.0
W


Charleston South
Campbell
111
13
4 of 9
44%
5.8
W



Citadel
56
68
3 of 9
33%
22.7
W



Charlotte
85
39
3 of 8
38%
14.6
W


Monmouth
Deleware St
112
12
2 of 10
20%
2.4
W



Wagner
75
49
4 of 8
50%
24.5
W



Duquesne
54
70
5 of 9
56%
38.9
L



Lehigh
84
40
2 of 8
25%
10.0
W



RMU
110
14
1 of 8
13%
1.8
W



Columbia
119
5
0 of 7
1%
0.0
W


Gardner-Webb
Furman
87
37
2 of 9
22%
8.2
L



Wofford
46
78
5 of 8
63%
48.8
W



Citadel
56
68
3 of 9
33%
22.7
L



Charlotte
85
39
3 of 8
38%
14.6
W



VMI
100
24
2 of 8
25%
6.0
W

[bonarae]

The OOC SOS seems interesting to me, especially when the playoff-playing folks get outraged every time their team gets snubbed. We'll see for this year... xcoffeex

[Professor Chaos]

Easy, the Big Sky numbers are propped up by the fact that they played 8 OOC games (winning 1) against teams from the conference Massey ranks as head and shoulders above every other conference whereas the MVFC played no OOC games against teams from that same conference thus the reason the Big Sky's OOC SOS looks so strong. Simple!

[Red & Black]

Nice work.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[FordhamFan]

If I can, I will try to measure out some of the other conferences as well if this is interesting to any of you.

Don't do the Patriot League....it's just going to be a miserable time and make me feel worse about it.

[HailSzczur]

If you're gonna bash the CAA take all the games into consideration

UNH vs Dartmouth (5-2)
Richmond vs Liberty (6-3)
Nova vs Morgan St (5-4)
Albany vs Colgate (4-5)
URI vs Brown (4-3)

That puts it 11/34 teams as over .500, good for 32%

And any reason you chose not to add FBS teams to the mix? FBS games accounted for 11 of the CAA's 45 OOC games, pretty much 25%. Its hard to get an accurate representation of the CAA's OOC without it. I don't see what's so wrong with scheduling a cupcake game you have a 90% chance of winning when you know you're someone else's cupcake for a game you maybe a 10% chance of winning. In the past Nova has shot themselves in the foot not playing a 12th game, or scheduling an FBS game in a year they came up just one win short. Been on the outside looking in a few times.

[skinny_uncle]

If going 23-1 against the rest of the FCS is that simple, everyone should be doing it. How many leagues have ever had a record like that? Oh, yeah.....

[dudeitsaid]

Easy, the Big Sky numbers are propped up by the fact that they played 8 OOC games (winning 1) against teams from the conference Massey ranks as head and shoulders above every other conference whereas the MVFC played no OOC games against teams from that same conference thus the reason the Big Sky's OOC SOS looks so strong. Simple!

Yep, those Weber state, SUU, UND, UCD wins are something else!

Weber and UM gave your best team as good or better a game than almost every other MVFC team that's been beat by NDSU this year. Weaker than MVFC? I don't know if I'd be confident in that conclusion.

[dudeitsaid]

If going 23-1 against the rest of the FCS is that simple, everyone should be doing it. How many leagues have ever had a record like that? Oh, yeah.....

If you divided the OOC schedule in two, and two teams had those records in consideration for at large berths, there's a decent chance they'd be on the bubble depending on the other potential teams. Especially if they were from a conference that doesn't have a lot of inherent respect. Not all records are created equal. If SIU is left out in the cold again this year, will you hold 23-1 up as justification for your teams inclusion? None of SIU's OOC wins even have a winning record.

[BisonTru]

Here's the Massey Composite rankings of the BSC vs. the MVFC.



1
NDSU


2
ISUr


7
ISUb


8
EWA


9
YSU


10
UNI


14
SDSU


19
SIU


22
ISUo


23
MiSU


24
UM


26
CP


27
MoSU


32
WIU


38
NAU


60
USD


62
Sac St


66
S Utah


77
NC


79
PSU


80
UND


95
WSU


96
UCD

[clenz]

Yep, those Weber state, SUU, UND, UCD wins are something else!

Weber and UM gave your best team as good or better a game than almost every other MVFC team that's been beat by NDSU this year. Weaker than MVFC? I don't know if I'd be confident in that conclusion.
And then NAU lost to, by far, the worst team in the MVFC. A team that might not win a single MVFC game

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[Professor Chaos]

Yep, those Weber state, SUU, UND, UCD wins are something else!

Weber and UM gave your best team as good or better a game than almost every other MVFC team that's been beat by NDSU this year. Weaker than MVFC? I don't know if I'd be confident in that conclusion.
What I'm saying is you're contradicting yourself using the strength of the MVFC computer numbers to show the strength of the Big Sky OOC SOS while at the same time saying the MVFC is getting too much respect from those computers. Take out the MVFC OOC games and the Big Sky's average OOC SOS using your formula drops to 37.4. Two teams that are a combined 2-8 (SDSU, and USD) in MVFC conference games beat 2 Big Sky teams that are a combined 9-2 in Big Sky conference games. Overall the MVFC won the OOC series 7 to 1. Say what you want historically because I'll grant that an argument can be made against the MVFC/Gateway historically but this year there's no doubt that the MVFC was head and shoulders above the Big Sky and the results bear that out.

As far as Weber and Montana giving NDSU better games than MVFC teams have it goes both ways. USD lost on the road to Montana by 8 and lost at home to NDSU by 40 yet NDSU only beat Montana by 12. So we can spin it back and forth however to prove a point but the head-to-head matchups in terms of actual victories, not moral victories, are all the proof you need to see which conference outperformed the other this year.

[kalm]

Phenomenal work Dude! 2 or 3 years ago I was stating that there's really not much difference between the power 4. Since then, SHSU, SELA, EIU, and JSU have pulled the Southland and OVC up a little. More recently, CCU and Liberty have been pulling the Big South up.

That being said, it's still tougher than **** for Big Sky, Southland, and MVFC teams to take the EC route and easily schedule MEAC's, Patriots, NEC's and Pioneers.

[dudeitsaid]

Crap. I was hoping to do a couple more conference comparisons, but I caught some bug from my kids today. It gave me time to work on this, but now it's moved to the puking faze! Ugh, hopefully tomorrow.

[ElCid]

Crap. I was hoping to do a couple more conference comparisons, but I caught some bug from my kids today. It gave me time to work on this, but now it's moved to the puking faze! Ugh, hopefully tomorrow.

Hope you feel better, I was hoping to see the SOCON and Big South.

[kalm]

What I'm saying is you're contradicting yourself using the strength of the MVFC computer numbers to show the strength of the Big Sky OOC SOS while at the same time saying the MVFC is getting too much respect from those computers. Take out the MVFC OOC games and the Big Sky's average OOC SOS using your formula drops to 37.4. Two teams that are a combined 2-8 (SDSU, and USD) in MVFC conference games beat 2 Big Sky teams that are a combined 9-2 in Big Sky conference games. Overall the MVFC won the OOC series 7 to 1. Say what you want historically because I'll grant that an argument can be made against the MVFC/Gateway historically but this year there's no doubt that the MVFC was head and shoulders above the Big Sky and the results bear that out.

As far as Weber and Montana giving NDSU better games than MVFC teams have it goes both ways. USD lost on the road to Montana by 8 and lost at home to NDSU by 40 yet NDSU only beat Montana by 12. So we can spin it back and forth however to prove a point but the head-to-head matchups in terms of actual victories, not moral victories, are all the proof you need to see which conference outperformed the other this year.

NDSU is still ahead of everyone.

But if you right now, matched up EWU, MSU, UM, Poly, NAU, and ISU with NDSU, ISUr, YSU, ISUb, UNI, and SDSU, on neutral fields, I'm guessing it would be evenly split.

[No_Skill]

One of every four OOC games were played against teams rated in the bottom 25% of teams on the Massey composite.

This made me lol. You're telling me that 25% of the OOC games played were in the bottom 25%!?!?

http://onemansblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/inconceivable.jpg

[semobison]

Crap. I was hoping to do a couple more conference comparisons, but I caught some bug from my kids today. It gave me time to work on this, but now it's moved to the puking faze! Ugh, hopefully tomorrow.
Bottom line...last year 4 big sky teams made the playoffs, 3 lost their first round game. Only once since 2010 has a valley team lost in the first round. It is cute your trying to build up you conference with smoke and mirrors!

[centennial]

Also, on this list, in attempting to get a visual of the strength of each opponent that goes beyond Massey's rating, I created a forumula by multiplying the equivalent of the teams win percentage times their standing in the Massey rating. The reason I did this is because I want to believe a win against a team that has won games versus lost game should mean something. Not every record is equal. For example, the win against EIU currently seems to be a better win than SEMO, even though both teams have the same records. I know that numbers never tell the full story, but it's one way of looking at things. More than likely, I'm just having too much fun with Excel! But interestingly, the average for the conference on that opponent strength formula is 29.8. That doesn't mean a whole lot, except it is not that strong.
I am guessing you don't have a math background? I am not going to tear apart your work, however I do want to make a general observation- trying to subvert the computers by making selected use of data should be left to political parties. The reason Big Sky is rated so low is because you just aren't very good. The MVFC's SOS on Sagarin is far higher than the BSC. Massey also rates the SOS of MVFC as 40.44(hardest in FCS) vs BSC 30.90(second hardest).

Also you don't understand how conference ratings are calculated, the top and bottom teams usually have the lowest weightage. NDSU adds 1/30th to the conference rating, same as South Dakota. The weight gets heavier as you get towards the middle. I have to give you props for trying though, completely disagree with the logic.

[NDSUSR]

If EWU could ever make the finals we could put this to bed once and for all.

[BisonTru]

NDSU is still ahead of everyone.

But if you right now, matched up EWU, MSU, UM, Poly, NAU, and ISU with NDSU, ISUr, YSU, ISUb, UNI, and SDSU, on neutral fields, I'm guessing it would be evenly split.

FWIW,

Simulated results using compughterratings.com

NDSU 42, EWA 24
ISUr 44, MSU 27
YSU 24, UM 18
ISUb 34, Poly 21
UNI 39, NAU 16
SDSU 38, ISUo 34

[MacThor]

Indiana State has a solid win over Liberty as well.

Yet Richmond's win over Liberty doesn't even count in your CAA analysis. Neither does UNH over 5-2 Dartmouth.

[HailSzczur]

Yet Richmond's win over Liberty doesn't even count in your CAA analysis. Neither does UNH over 5-2 Dartmouth.

There were 5 CAA games missed, 4 of which were against teams over .500

[kalm]

FWIW,

Simulated results using compughterratings.com

NDSU 42, EWA 24
ISUr 44, MSU 27
YSU 24, UM 18
ISUb 34, Poly 21
UNI 39, NAU 16
SDSU 38, ISUo 34

Not that much considering how are 13th and 6th teams did against your 1 ;)

[MacThor]

There were 5 CAA games missed, 4 of which were against teams over .500

And 4 of which were wins. Hmm. Interesting omissions.

[centennial]

Not that much considering how are 13th and 6th teams did against your 1 ;)
Weak trolling attempt.

[BisonTru]

Not that much considering how are 13th and 6th teams did against your 1 ;)

Eh, NAU may very well win the Big Sky as well as providing USD with their only D-1 victory of the season.

[kalm]

Weak trolling attempt.

Well sure, but now that you mention it, how does that margin of victory stack up against MVFC's 2nd and 3rd tier?

[AmsterBison]

I alluded in another thread to the fact that I don't think the MVFC record of 23-1 versus OOC FCS opponents has as much luster as maybe the majority think it does. Are there some good wins in that number? Sure! SDSU has a win against a Cal Poly team that was reeling at the beginning of the season due to some crazy off the field issues. I personally think the score would look a lot different now that they've gotten their stuff together.


Either you buy into Massey Ratings or you don't. If you buy into Massey Ratings enough to use them to evaluate non-conference FCS wins, you must buy into them enough to say "X is better than Y because the Massey Ratings say so," rather than torturing the data like you are doing. And according to Massey, five of the top 10 teams in the FCS are from the MVFC.

[Bisonator]

Funny how transitive properties are OK when BSC fans want to use them but not when MVFC fans use them. xlolx

[dudeitsaid]

And 4 of which were wins. Hmm. Interesting omissions.

Sorry, my brain is not at full function tonight. I don't know how I missed some, but if you list them for me, I will revise what I did, and put them in.

[dudeitsaid]

Either you buy into Massey Ratings or you don't. If you buy into Massey Ratings enough to use them to evaluate non-conference FCS wins, you must buy into them enough to say "X is better than Y because the Massey Ratings say so," rather than torturing the data like you are doing. And according to Massey, five of the top 10 teams in the FCS are from the MVFC.

Massey's a lot smarter than I am, and his work is far better. I'm not trying to supplant him, or anyone else. Just trying to get a different look at things. I know the MVFC is rated so highly in so many places. Honestly, I think they are the best and deepest conference as well. I just don't think they are as far ahead as they are made out to be, and I don't think pointing to the OOC wins against such vastly inferior competition is a good baseline to establish that dominance. Give Valpo to Weber. They would beat them too.

[dudeitsaid]

I am guessing you don't have a math background? I am not going to tear apart your work, however I do want to make a general observation- trying to subvert the computers by making selected use of data should be left to political parties. The reason Big Sky is rated so low is because you just aren't very good. The MVFC's SOS on Sagarin is far higher than the BSC. Massey also rates the SOS of MVFC as 40.44(hardest in FCS) vs BSC 30.90(second hardest).

Also you don't understand how conference ratings are calculated, the top and bottom teams usually have the lowest weightage. NDSU adds 1/30th to the conference rating, same as South Dakota. The weight gets heavier as you get towards the middle. I have to give you props for trying though, completely disagree with the logic.

Honest question. Isn't that in large part because the teams within the conference are rated so highly? So the SOS looks strong because you guys play each other for the majority of the season's games. Other than that, and a few FBS games, why is the SOS rated so highly? Because it doesn't appear to be the FCS OOC competition. And that's what my initial point was. I could be wrong entirely, but from my vantage point, I just don't understand why the conference is rated SO MUCH better than others.

[dudeitsaid]

Bottom line...last year 4 big sky teams made the playoffs, 3 lost their first round game. Only once since 2010 has a valley team lost in the first round. It is cute your trying to build up you conference with smoke and mirrors!

I'm sure it seems that way, but it's really not my intention in this at all. It's to bring the MVFC down! (kidding, I just had some time with nothing else to occupy me, and wanted to see how the OOC games stack up later in the season!)

[kingranch]

Because A Lot Of Us Won Our Fbs Ooc games

[centennial]

Honest question. Isn't that in large part because the teams within the conference are rated so highly? So the SOS looks strong because you guys play each other for the majority of the season's games. Other than that, and a few FBS games, why is the SOS rated so highly? Because it doesn't appear to be the FCS OOC competition. And that's what my initial point was. I could be wrong entirely, but from my vantage point, I just don't understand why the conference is rated SO MUCH better than others.
You actually have to win your OOC and play the FBS schools well. If the whole conference does better it does boost your SOS. The honest answer for why MVFC is rated better- win OOC by a large margin(makes us look like a FBS conference to the computers), also play FBS schools better. Notice that none of these are terrible losses, some of these games we might have won with some luck.
Example-
YSU vs Illinois- 28-17
ISU vs Indiana- 28-10
ISU vs Ball State- 27-20 W
UNI vs Iowa- 31-23
UNI vs Hawaii- 27-24
SDSU vs Missouri- 38-18
SIU vs Purdue- 35-13
MSU vs Oklahoma State- 40-23

[dudeitsaid]

I agree the competition level against FBS teams was solid. NDSU's victory against ISU was dang impressive. I honestly did not realize that the close losses were taken into consideration with SOS. Makes sense to me.

[dudeitsaid]

There were 5 CAA games missed, 4 of which were against teams over .500

I found the five I missed, and adjusted the results. Man, I missed that! Thanks for giving the number of misses. It took me a couple of glances at the schedules to catch the omissions even knowing how many I missed! Sheesh!

[centennial]

I agree the competition level against FBS teams was solid. NDSU's victory against ISU was dang impressive. I honestly did not realize that the close losses were taken into consideration with SOS. Makes sense to me.
They aren't directly. Play well against FBS, boost own rating, SOS of your opponents get better.

[dudeitsaid]

Hope you feel better, I was hoping to see the SOCON and Big South.

Got a catnap. Feel a little better. Put the SOCON one up on the third post, I believe. If you see any errors or omissions, let me know!

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

I like the analysis, though several posters have shot a few holes in your conclusions.

Teams generally improve over the course of the season, barring injuries, etc. So what it tells me is that the MVFC and CAA have smarter ADs more than anything about the teams/conferences themselves. The West is cursed with not having as many FCS opponents nearby, so more DII and FBS wins/losses, which mostly hurt the teams come playoff selection time unless they beat a FBS team. For the CAA, it's clear as well that Albany and Stony Brook are not yet as strong as the ODU/UMass/Hofstra of recent years past. The whole conference is a bit down due in large part to these changes, though losing Georgia St. didn't really matter.

For playoffs, the basic formula is strong conference with good performance (i.e., top 3) + 2 FCS cupcakes + FCS respectable + FBS likely loss = 9-3/8-4 at large bid. OOC is only worth looking at on a team by team basis for me. The JMU team that BARELY beat Lehigh has been replaced with a more seasoned group that has learned how to work with each other under a new set of players and coaches. Many freshmen have seen significant playing time and they were among the heros against W&M last week, which is a great sign for JMU fans and the program's future. Still, JMU is likely a 1-and-done team in the playoffs this year assuming they find a way to 8-4 and other dominos fall their way. But does that mean Lehigh was one dropped INT away from making the playoffs? Hardly.

For weaker conferences, win out or one conf L + 2 FCS respectables beat + 1 FCS cupcake + FBS likely loss = 11-1 autobid or 10-2 w/ at-large bid. Scheduling the extra game for a 12-game schedule should be a priority of ADs. Scheduling a DII should be avoided unless you are Montana, JMU or Delaware and the ticket receipts can justify the hit to the playoff chances. Even in those cases I'd argue to avoid DII like the plague if you care about your school making the playoff field.

Sorry for rambling...

[dudeitsaid]

Hope you feel better, I was hoping to see the SOCON and Big South.

Added the Big South numbers to the third post as well.

[dudeitsaid]

I like the analysis, though several posters have shot a few holes in your conclusions.

Teams generally improve over the course of the season, barring injuries, etc. So what it tells me is that the MVFC and CAA have smarter ADs more than anything about the teams/conferences themselves. The West is cursed with not having as many FCS opponents nearby, so more DII and FBS wins/losses, which mostly hurt the teams come playoff selection time unless they beat a FBS team. For the CAA, it's clear as well that Albany and Stony Brook are not yet as strong as the ODU/UMass/Hofstra of recent years past. The whole conference is a bit down due in large part to these changes, though losing Georgia St. didn't really matter.

For playoffs, the basic formula is strong conference with good performance (i.e., top 3) + 2 FCS cupcakes + FCS respectable + FBS likely loss = 9-3/8-4 at large bid. OOC is only worth looking at on a team by team basis for me. The JMU team that BARELY beat Lehigh has been replaced with a more seasoned group that has learned how to work with each other under a new set of players and coaches. Many freshmen have seen significant playing time and they were among the heros against W&M last week, which is a great sign for JMU fans and the program's future. Still, JMU is likely a 1-and-done team in the playoffs this year assuming they find a way to 8-4 and other dominos fall their way. But does that mean Lehigh was one dropped INT away from making the playoffs? Hardly.

For weaker conferences, win out or one conf L + 2 FCS respectables beat + 1 FCS cupcake + FBS likely loss = 11-1 autobid or 10-2 w/ at-large bid. Scheduling the extra game for a 12-game schedule should be a priority of ADs. Scheduling a DII should be avoided unless you are Montana, JMU or Delaware and the ticket receipts can justify the hit to the playoff chances. Even in those cases I'd argue to avoid DII like the plague if you care about your school making the playoff field.

Sorry for rambling...

Well said, I agree that those formulas seem to work in many cases for securing playoff at larges.

[kalm]

I like the analysis, though several posters have shot a few holes in your conclusions.

Teams generally improve over the course of the season, barring injuries, etc. So what it tells me is that the MVFC and CAA have smarter ADs more than anything about the teams/conferences themselves. The West is cursed with not having as many FCS opponents nearby, so more DII and FBS wins/losses, which mostly hurt the teams come playoff selection time unless they beat a FBS team. For the CAA, it's clear as well that Albany and Stony Brook are not yet as strong as the ODU/UMass/Hofstra of recent years past. The whole conference is a bit down due in large part to these changes, though losing Georgia St. didn't really matter.

For playoffs, the basic formula is strong conference with good performance (i.e., top 3) + 2 FCS cupcakes + FCS respectable + FBS likely loss = 9-3/8-4 at large bid. OOC is only worth looking at on a team by team basis for me. The JMU team that BARELY beat Lehigh has been replaced with a more seasoned group that has learned how to work with each other under a new set of players and coaches. Many freshmen have seen significant playing time and they were among the heros against W&M last week, which is a great sign for JMU fans and the program's future. Still, JMU is likely a 1-and-done team in the playoffs this year assuming they find a way to 8-4 and other dominos fall their way. But does that mean Lehigh was one dropped INT away from making the playoffs? Hardly.

For weaker conferences, win out or one conf L + 2 FCS respectables beat + 1 FCS cupcake + FBS likely loss = 11-1 autobid or 10-2 w/ at-large bid. Scheduling the extra game for a 12-game schedule should be a priority of ADs. Scheduling a DII should be avoided unless you are Montana, JMU or Delaware and the ticket receipts can justify the hit to the playoff chances. Even in those cases I'd argue to avoid DII like the plague if you care about your school making the playoff field.

Sorry for rambling...

This is a good post.

[penguinpower]

What I'm saying is you're contradicting yourself using the strength of the MVFC computer numbers to show the strength of the Big Sky OOC SOS while at the same time saying the MVFC is getting too much respect from those computers. Take out the MVFC OOC games and the Big Sky's average OOC SOS using your formula drops to 37.4. Two teams that are a combined 2-8 (SDSU, and USD) in MVFC conference games beat 2 Big Sky teams that are a combined 9-2 in Big Sky conference games. Overall the MVFC won the OOC series 7 to 1. Say what you want historically because I'll grant that an argument can be made against the MVFC/Gateway historically but this year there's no doubt that the MVFC was head and shoulders above the Big Sky and the results bear that out.

As far as Weber and Montana giving NDSU better games than MVFC teams have it goes both ways. USD lost on the road to Montana by 8 and lost at home to NDSU by 40 yet NDSU only beat Montana by 12. So we can spin it back and forth however to prove a point but the head-to-head matchups in terms of actual victories, not moral victories, are all the proof you need to see which conference outperformed the other this year.



This pretty much sums it up.

I am sure this is how the bull**** rationalization starts in the selection committee too.

[Lehigh'98]

[QUOTE=penguinpower;2171931]This pretty much sums it up.

I am sure this is how the bull**** rationalization starts in the selection committee too

Just don't lose your last 3 games in a row and you're in. Simple, no conspiracy necessary.

[Red & Black]

If EWU could ever make the finals we could put this to bed once and for all.

Well, we have made the finals before. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Red & Black]

I like the analysis, though several posters have shot a few holes in your conclusions.

Teams generally improve over the course of the season, barring injuries, etc. So what it tells me is that the MVFC and CAA have smarter ADs more than anything about the teams/conferences themselves. The West is cursed with not having as many FCS opponents nearby, so more DII and FBS wins/losses, which mostly hurt the teams come playoff selection time unless they beat a FBS team. For the CAA, it's clear as well that Albany and Stony Brook are not yet as strong as the ODU/UMass/Hofstra of recent years past. The whole conference is a bit down due in large part to these changes, though losing Georgia St. didn't really matter.

For playoffs, the basic formula is strong conference with good performance (i.e., top 3) + 2 FCS cupcakes + FCS respectable + FBS likely loss = 9-3/8-4 at large bid. OOC is only worth looking at on a team by team basis for me. The JMU team that BARELY beat Lehigh has been replaced with a more seasoned group that has learned how to work with each other under a new set of players and coaches. Many freshmen have seen significant playing time and they were among the heros against W&M last week, which is a great sign for JMU fans and the program's future. Still, JMU is likely a 1-and-done team in the playoffs this year assuming they find a way to 8-4 and other dominos fall their way. But does that mean Lehigh was one dropped INT away from making the playoffs? Hardly.

For weaker conferences, win out or one conf L + 2 FCS respectables beat + 1 FCS cupcake + FBS likely loss = 11-1 autobid or 10-2 w/ at-large bid. Scheduling the extra game for a 12-game schedule should be a priority of ADs. Scheduling a DII should be avoided unless you are Montana, JMU or Delaware and the ticket receipts can justify the hit to the playoff chances. Even in those cases I'd argue to avoid DII like the plague if you care about your school making the playoff field.

Sorry for rambling...

Great post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[penguinpower]

It tells us the MVFC is the best FCS conference in 2014 and they deserve maximum playoff spots.

[Engineer86]

Eh, NAU may very well win the Big Sky as well as providing USD with their only D-1 victory of the season.

... Colgate ... And a 10-1 Lehigh xconfusedx

[Engineer86]

Honest question. Isn't that in large part because the teams within the conference are rated so highly? So the SOS looks strong because you guys play each other for the majority of the season's games. Other than that, and a few FBS games, why is the SOS rated so highly? Because it doesn't appear to be the FCS OOC competition. And that's what my initial point was. I could be wrong entirely, but from my vantage point, I just don't understand why the conference is rated SO MUCH better than others.

This was the approach of the old Big East in basketball. Syracuse would not leave NY till January and everyone in the league would enter league games with only 1 or 2 losses. These early wins against weak teams pushed the league high and it could never fall in the computer rankings.

[Engineer86]

You actually have to win your OOC and play the FBS schools well. If the whole conference does better it does boost your SOS. The honest answer for why MVFC is rated better- win OOC by a large margin(makes us look like a FBS conference to the computers), also play FBS schools better. Notice that none of these are terrible losses, some of these games we might have won with some luck.
Example-
YSU vs Illinois- 28-17
ISU vs Indiana- 28-10
ISU vs Ball State- 27-20 W
UNI vs Iowa- 31-23
UNI vs Hawaii- 27-24
SDSU vs Missouri- 38-18
SIU vs Purdue- 35-13
MSU vs Oklahoma State- 40-23

Agree, combine this with beating whoever else you play and it is a pretty strong argument

[dudeitsaid]

It tells us the MVFC is the best FCS conference in 2014 and they deserve maximum playoff spots.

What are "maximum playoff spots"?

Why do a bunch of FBS losses with a couple of wins (I admit that what NDSU has done is amazing, but the entire MVFC should not automatically get credit for what they have done) and a few good FCS OOC wins sprinkled against a whole bunch everyone else would perform just as well against mean they deserve maximum playoff spots? Should a 7 Div 1 win MVFC team get in over an 8 Div 1 win team from the CAA? Big Sky? Big South? OVC? Southland?

It seems the biggest boost the MVFC teams will get is that they play each other. It seems like circular reasoning to me. Everyone gets to partake in the halo effect of a couple of teams that have done some good things, mostly NDSU. They played and beat 23 FCS teams OOC, most of whom were cupcakes. Now they play each other, and the perception of strength doesn't need to change much because, heck, when they lose, they lose to one another.

All of that being said, like I've stated from the beginning, I do think the MVFC is better than the other conferences. Just not WAY better. I would probably take an MVFC team over another with the same record from another conference in many, if not most cases (depending on the quality of the actual wins). But I wouldn't take more than four at this point. I wouldn't take five or six. Don't know if that is what is meant by maximum.

[frozennorth]

The strength of conferences is based on how they perform against teams for other conferences. For instance, if you were to keep all the records for the big sky the same but increased all the big sky nonconference scores by 10, all the big sky teams would rise 10 points, but would not change in relation to one another.

[Red & Black]

We're seriously going to use how badly a team beat UND as some sort of metric?

It was 38-3 at half and we were 3 and 4 deep into our depth chart early in the 3rd qtr. I don't think this is a very good comparison. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[frozennorth]

We're seriously going to use how badly a team beat UND as some sort of metric?

It was 38-3 at half and we were 3 and 4 deep into our depth chart early in the 3rd qtr. I don't think this is a very good comparison. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You guys are real selective with which wins count and which dont.

[Red & Black]

You guys are real selective with which wins count and which dont.

Well, that was the first real comment I've made on this thread, so I'm not sure what you mean. Just found the comparison kind of humorous is all. Also, 54-3 is different than 38-0...not that it really matters much. Both were beat downs.


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[clenz]

We're seriously going to use how badly a team beat UND as some sort of metric?

It was 38-3 at half and we were 3 and 4 deep into our depth chart early in the 3rd qtr. I don't think this is a very good comparison. ;)


Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkHow about a winless, in conference, South Dakota team that is being outscored 35-12 in conference games and is dead last, or second to last, in every single offensive and defensive category handling their Big Sky games pretty well?

I'm not going to make a case that USD is only 1 score worse than Montana because that was a 15 point game with 2 minutes left and it was one game. It is interesting to see USD go for more yards, hold Montana to fewer yards, score more points, hold Montana to fewer points, etc... than they give up in MVFC games.

Same for NAU, except USD won that game. Hell, USD ran for 304 yards in that game at 5.4 YPC. In conference games they are at 130 and 3.6 YPC.

I know, I know - NDSU/Weber State.



I'm not going to go to the extreme, or any of the stupid **** that some posters are throwing out.

I've said it before, I'll say it here again, and I'll say it in the future. The top 3-4 are even, the middle 3-4 are pretty even, but the bottom of the Big Sky appears to lag well behind.

As I've said before though, that creates a perfect environment to get at larges bids.

[MR. CHICKEN]

How about a winless, in conference, South Dakota team that is being outscored 35-12 in conference games and is dead last, or second to last, in every single offensive and defensive category handling their Big Sky games pretty well?

I'm not going to make a case that USD is only 1 score worse than Montana because that was a 15 point game with 2 minutes left and it was one game. It is interesting to see USD go for more yards, hold Montana to fewer yards, score more points, hold Montana to fewer points, etc... than they give up in MVFC games.

Same for NAU, except USD won that game. Hell, USD ran for 304 yards in that game at 5.4 YPC. In conference games they are at 130 and 3.6 YPC.

I know, I know - NDSU/Weber State.



I'm not going to go to the extreme, or any of the stupid **** that some posters are throwing out.

I've said it before, I'll say it here again, and I'll say it in the future. The top 3-4 are even, the middle 3-4 are pretty even, but the bottom of the Big Sky appears to lag well behind.

As I've said before though, that creates a perfect environment to get at larges bids.

20002......YA'LL VALLEY BOYS ARE BLINDED.........BAH YER OWN NATIONAL BLING.....DESE GAMES ARE...EASILAH..EXPLAINED AS "TRAP" GAMES........NORFFERN ARIZONA....LOOKIN' AHEAD TA CAL-PIE.......MONTANA......THINKIN' 'BOUT DUH BIZONSSSSS.........AN' BAH YER OWN ADMISSIONS.......BIZONSSSS /DWEEBER STATE.....CAN BE EXPLAINED AS.........CRASHIN' FROM YER IOWAH STATE BEAT DOWN......IT'S BEEN SAID BAH EVERAH TALKIN' HEAD ANALYZER......OWN-LAH GET...3/4....EMOTION GAMES UH YEAR.....WHEN YER LOOKIN' AHEAD/BACK.....AN' UH NUT SACK....LIKE SOUFF DAKOTAH REARS DEY'RE UGLAH GOURD GUARDS....YA GET UH GAME.........HOW LONG YA'LL BEEN INTAH PIGGY....xconfusedxxconfusedx...BRAWK!

[tomq04]

What are "maximum playoff spots"?


More than 2, I would agree they should be getting 4 way before the big sky shows up with our 4th team, particularly if we continue the trend of having everyone but EWU go bust in their 1st game.

[semobison]

20002......YA'LL VALLEY BOYS ARE BLINDED.........BAH YER OWN NATIONAL BLING.....DESE GAMES ARE...EASILAH..EXPLAINED AS "TRAP" GAMES........NORFFERN ARIZONA....LOOKIN' AHEAD TA CAL-PIE.......MONTANA......THINKIN' 'BOUT DUH BIZONSSSSS.........AN' BAH YER OWN ADMISSIONS.......BIZONSSSS /DWEEBER STATE.....CAN BE EXPLAINED AS.........CRASHIN' FROM YER IOWAH STATE BEAT DOWN......IT'S BEEN SAID BAH EVERAH TALKIN' HEAD ANALYZER......OWN-LAH GET...3/4....EMOTION GAMES UH YEAR.....WHEN YER LOOKIN' AHEAD/BACK.....AN' UH NUT SACK....LIKE SOUFF DAKOTAH REARS DEY'RE UGLAH GOURD GUARDS....YA GET UH GAME.........HOW LONG YA'LL BEEN INTAH PIGGY....xconfusedxxconfusedx...BRAWK!

Trap games are for teams that are not going anywhere anyway Mr Chick-fa-lay. Who was Cal Poly looking foreward to before they got whooped in Brookings? Valley got on done in OOC games this year and that includes their FBS games too! Eat more beef!

[MR. CHICKEN]

Trap games are for teams that are not going anywhere anyway Mr Chick-fa-lay. Who was Cal Poly looking foreward to before they got whooped in Brookings? Valley got on done in OOC games this year and that includes their FBS games too! Eat more beef!

20003.........THOUGHT WE WERE TALKIN'....'BOUT SOUFF DAKOTAH..........NOT STATE.........xsmhx......GEEESSHHHH!

[semobison]

20003.........THOUGHT WE WERE TALKIN'....'BOUT SOUFF DAKOTAH..........NOT STATE.........xsmhx......GEEESSHHHH!

No disrespect but us Valley boys are not blinded by anything THIS SEASON. On Sept 22nd the week before we started conference play the AGS poll had 8 of our 10 teams ranked in the top 24. The same week the Coaches poll we had 7 teams in the top 24. Now, we knew conference play would weed out some teams and I expected that but anyone thinking a 5-3 team in the Valley doesn't get in is crazy, and that number will be most likely be 4 teams or less. The only Valley team that may not get in if they finish 5-3 is UNI because they will finish 7-5 with their 2 close FBS losses. IMO opinion they would be deserving but I see them on the bubble looking in.