You are the Committe, who gets selected in this scenario in the messed up BSC

[robsnotes4u]

You are the Committee, from this scenario (very possible), who do you pick to be in the playoffs, and why? Northern Arizona and Idaho State tie for the conference championship, and Northern Arizona gets the auto bid.

EWU 3 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
Sagarin SOS 51.38
1. Washington
2. Northern Arizona
3. Montana
Sagarin SOS 51.38
Biggest Win Montana State and Idaho State

Northern Arizona 3 losses overall, 1 loss in conference
1. San Diego State
2. South Dakota
3. Northern Colorado
Biggest Win EWU and Cal Poly
Sagarin SOS 51.24

Cal Poly 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. New Mexico State
2. South Dakota State
3.Northern Arizona
4. Idaho State
Biggest Win Montana and Montana State
Sagarin SOS 49.83

Montana 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. Wyoming
2. NDSU
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana State
Biggest Win EWU
Sagarin SOS 48.72

Montana State 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. Arkansas State
2. EWU-nonconference
3. Cal Poly
4. Idaho State
Biggest wins Montana
Sagarin SOS 49.99

Idaho State 3 losses overall, 1 loss in conference.
1.Utah
2.Utah State
3. EWU
Biggest wins Cal Poly and Montana State
Sagarin SOS 55.12

[clenz]

Doesn't matter what I would do....all of them would be picked

[superman7515]

Drop the MVFC down to the autobid only and take them all. xlolx

[clenz]

Drop the MVFC down to the autobid only and take them all. xlolx

That sad thing is I'd put more money on the Big Sky getting 5 of those in than the MVFC getting more than 3

[BisonFan02]

They will all get in.......and lose. :D

[FargoBison]

Not one of those teams would be seeded, just to add to this mess of a scenario.

[kalm]

Take the 3 loss teams.

[FargoBison]

EWU, Cal Poly and Idaho State

Those non-D1 games came back to haunt the Montana schools....

[Southern Bison]

That sad thing is I'd put more money on the Big Sky getting 5 of those in than the MVFC getting more than 3

The MVFC is known as a meat grinder...BSC would be more like some over-priced juicer.

[clenz]

The MVFC is known as a meat grinder...BSC would be more like some over-priced juicer.

I've said it repeatedly - the big sky does it right with conference set up. I know conferences don't get at larges, teams do, but they set everything up perfectly for their teams to get at larges.

The MVFC will canabilize itself while the Big Sky is set to make any number of teams succeed in any given year going forward. Extremely jealous of the Big Sky at this point.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the Big Sky was at 10 teams, like the MVFC, they'd be in the exact same spot at the MVFC right now. The top of their league is very strong and would do to each other what the MVFC does. There's no question about that.

[centennial]

I've said it repeatedly - the big sky does it right with conference set up. I know conferences don't get at larges, teams do, but they set everything up perfectly for their teams to get at larges.

The MVFC will canabilize itself while the Big Sky is set to make any number of teams succeed in any given year going forward. Extremely jealous of the Big Sky at this point.

Let's not kid ourselves, if the Big Sky was at 10 teams, like the MVFC, they'd be in the exact same spot at the MVFC right now. The top of their league is very strong and would do to each other what the MVFC does. There's no question about that.
Don't agree, they have 4 good teams in an above average year, we have 7. This is an exceptional year for the MVFC and a down year for them. I expect them to get their 4 and us to get our 3 again. I bet 3 of 4 will lose in the first round again.
Top 8 big sky-
24 BIG SKY (AA)= 47.99 48.35 ( 23) TEAMS= 13 48.24 ( 24)
College Football 2014 through games of November 1 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.17] [ 3.15] [ 3.26] [ 3.13]
96 Eastern Washington AA = 62.73 8 2 51.38( 167) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.42 108 | 64.42 87 | 64.40 91
121 Idaho State AA = 58.44 6 3 55.12( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.65 122 | 60.14 113 | 58.40 120
131 Montana AA = 56.30 6 3 48.72( 184) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.82 135 | 56.14 136 | 57.28 124
138 Montana State AA = 54.95 6 3 49.99( 178) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.87 144 | 56.13 137 | 56.04 137
146 Cal Poly-SLO AA = 53.76 6 3 49.83( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.59 156 | 55.91 139 | 54.48 143
160 Northern Arizona AA = 51.34 6 3 51.24( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.42 161 | 50.95 160 | 53.60 151
178 Sacramento State AA = 46.73 4 5 50.88( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.58 175 | 46.79 177 | 46.76 182
184 Southern Utah AA = 45.22 2 7 58.56( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 45.80 189 | 47.39 174 | 45.80 188
Top 8 MVFC-
13 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)= 62.76 63.02 ( 13) TEAMS= 10 62.89 ( 13)
College Football 2014 through games of November 1 Saturday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | GOLDEN_MEAN | PREDICTOR | ELO_SCORE
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.17] [ 3.15] [ 3.26] [ 3.13]
28 North Dakota State AA = 79.93 9 0 54.77( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 78.82 31 | 76.48 38 | 83.39 22
62 Illinois State AA = 69.94 7 1 54.65( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.56 57 | 68.83 71 | 69.84 66
77 Northern Iowa AA = 67.22 5 4 58.06( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.11 71 | 68.21 74 | 64.49 90
87 South Dakota State AA = 65.01 5 4 65.16( 82) 0 0 | 0 2 | 65.29 87 | 63.04 95 | 66.51 80
98 Indiana State AA = 62.53 6 3 63.44( 93) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.89 100 | 63.03 96 | 62.60 99
106 Southern Illinois AA = 61.48 5 4 59.15( 120) 0 0 | 0 1 | 62.83 101 | 59.94 115 | 61.59 107
110 Youngstown State AA = 61.11 7 2 51.76( 161) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.90 118 | 59.52 117 | 64.96 89
115 Missouri State AA = 60.04 4 5 60.26( 113) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.14 110 | 61.00 106 | 59.05 118

[clenz]

I'm not going to pretend to understand computer rankings...but..

I would bet if any combo of the bottom half of the Big Sky didn't show up on the schedules (teams that the MVFC doesn't have a real "answer" for) that their computer rankings would be higher.

As I said, the Big Sky got it right with the way they expanded.

[MTfan4life]

You are the Committee, from this scenario (very possible), who do you pick to be in the playoffs, and why? Northern Arizona and Idaho State tie for the conference championship, and Northern Arizona gets the auto bid.

EWU 3 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
Sagarin SOS 51.38
1. Washington
2. Northern Arizona
3. Montana
Sagarin SOS 51.38
Biggest Win Montana State and Idaho State

Northern Arizona 3 losses overall, 1 loss in conference
1. San Diego State
2. South Dakota
3. Northern Colorado
Biggest Win EWU and Cal Poly
Sagarin SOS 51.24

Cal Poly 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. New Mexico State
2. South Dakota State
3.Northern Arizona
4. Idaho State
Biggest Win Montana and Montana State
Sagarin SOS 49.83

Montana 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. Wyoming
2. NDSU
3. Cal Poly
4. Montana State
Biggest Win EWU
Sagarin SOS 48.72

Montana State 4 losses overall, 2 losses in conference
1. Arkansas State
2. EWU-nonconference
3. Cal Poly
4. Idaho State
Biggest wins Montana
Sagarin SOS 49.99

Idaho State 3 losses overall, 1 loss in conference.
1.Utah
2.Utah State
3. EWU
Biggest wins Cal Poly and Montana State
Sagarin SOS 55.12

In a conference where teams have played drastically different at home versus on the road, I think it's a little crazy to say that 3 of these teams winning road games over each other is "very possible." Not one contender has won a road game over the other, aside from a Vernon Adams Eastern Washington. The much more likely scenario has Cal Poly, Montana, Montana State, and Idaho State all finishing at 8-4, 6-2. Eastern Washington and Northern Arizona would tie for the conference title with NAU getting the auto-bid.

[centennial]

I'm not going to pretend to understand computer rankings...but..

I would bet if any combo of the bottom half of the Big Sky didn't show up on the schedules (teams that the MVFC doesn't have a real "answer" for) that their computer rankings would be higher.

As I said, the Big Sky got it right with the way they expanded.
This is from Hammersmith on Bisonville. This year with 10 teams they would have a mean of 51(I rounded off a bunch). That gives them about a boost of 3. This will be true for most years. In a good year for the Big Sky and a bad year for the MVFC the conferences would be ranked similar.

Because of the way Sagarin chooses to compute conference rankings, there is a way for the Valley to improve. Sagarin uses central mean to compute conference ratings instead of simple average. With simple average, every Valley team would be worth the same, 1/10 of the total score each. But central mean favors the middle of the conference pack at the expense of the outliers. In the Valley, the 1 & 10 teams are worth 1/30 each. 2 & 9 are worth 2/30, 3 & 8 are worth 3/30, 4 & 7 are worth 4/30, and 5 & 6 are worth 5/30. So the middle two teams combined are worth 1/3 of the conference total, and the middle four teams combined are worth 3/5.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Pick the teams that make sense. Then throw them out and accept Montana, Montana State, EWU because they have pretty stadiums. There's your peek into the minds of the playoff pickers.

[FargoBison]

Pick the teams that make sense. Then throw them out and accept Montana, Montana State, EWU because they have pretty stadiums. There's your peek into the minds of the playoff pickers.

First time I have ever seen EWU and "pretty stadium" in the same sentence.....

[tomq04]

First time I have ever seen EWU and "pretty stadium" in the same sentence.....

LOL out loud

[rokamortis]

Not one of those teams would be seeded, just to add to this mess of a scenario.

Since not all teams play each other in season some matchups are fair game for the first round ...

EWU vs Cal Poly
Montana vs Idaho St
Montana St vs NAU