Bracketology

[FargoBison]

Playoff Field
NAU at McNeese St vs 1 NDSU
SFA at Montana St vs 8. ISUR


Liberty at JMU vs 5. Richmond
ISUB at Chattanooga vs 4. Jacksonville State


SHSU at Cal Poly vs 6. EWU
Jacksonville at SC State vs 3. CCU


EKU at YSU vs 7. NOVA
Bryant at Fordham vs 2. UNH


Autobids(11): EWU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jax State, Fordham, Jacksonville, Chatty, SHSU
At-Large(13): Richmond, Nova, ISUR, YSU, ISUB, Cal Poly, Montana St, EKU, McNeese State, SFA, NAU, JMU, Liberty

Bubble: SDSU, UNI, SELA, Montana, Bethune-Cookman, NCAT, William and Mary, Delaware, Albany, SIU, Bucknell and Sacred Heart

Bolded teams have clinched

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The EKU-JSU game this week is a monster. I've been a little higher on EKU than most this year. They already have a win over a 1A team and finish the year against Florida. IF they beat JSU this week at home I think they have the potential to be a sneaky 2 or 3 seed. Their computer numbers will take a major jump these final 3 weeks....

[FargoBison]

The EKU-JSU game this week is a monster. I've been a little higher on EKU than most this year. They already have a win over a 1A team and finish the year against Florida. IF they beat JSU this week at home I think they have the potential to be a sneaky 2 or 3 seed. Their computer numbers will take a major jump these final 3 weeks....

2 or 3 seeds don't lose to Tenn Tech, I think that scenario may very well get them a seed. Probably in the 6-8 range.

They would need some help to climb into the 2-3 range.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

2 or 3 seeds don't lose to Tenn Tech, I think that scenario may very well get them a seed. Probably in the 6-8 range.

They would need some help to climb into the 2-3 range.

But a road conference loss won't hurt you too much in the grand scheme of things imo. A win over Jax State will give them a huge boost. They have an all D1 schedule with 2 FBS games and play in a 2 bid league. There's a lot of good there if they finish 10-2...

There's always one surprise. Depending on how things play out I think EKU is positioned pretty well to sneak up on people come selection day....

[FargoBison]

But a road conference loss won't hurt you too much in the grand scheme of things imo. A win over Jax State will give them a huge boost. They have a all D1 schedule with 2 FBS games and play in a 2 bid league. There's a lot of good there if they finish 10-2...

If they committee does that it would be a crime, that said I am not high on EKU at all. Don't think they would finish in the top half of the MVFC.

I think NDSU, UNH and CCU have a firm lock on the top 3 seeds.

After that is a bit more up in the air I guess.

[ekufbfan]

EKU
offense: can put points in the board (the TTU debacle was just a train wreck that should never have occurred, *see last comment)
question mark: defense
The unknown in this equation: coaching. IMO the worst possible issue to have.

[blackbeard]

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-playoff-top-seeds-automatic-qualifiers-and-at-large-selections-11214/

Another look - can't imagine having Fordham seeded over Villanova after their head to head

[lionsrking2]

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-playoff-top-seeds-automatic-qualifiers-and-at-large-selections-11214/

Another look - can't imagine having Fordham seeded over Villanova after their head to head

They wouldn't be.

[FargoBison]

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-playoff-top-seeds-automatic-qualifiers-and-at-large-selections-11214/

Another look - can't imagine having Fordham seeded over Villanova after their head to head

Wow that bracket is beyond bad.

[knucklehead]

Playoff Field
NAU at McNeese St vs 1 NDSU
SFA at Montana St vs 8. ISUR


Liberty at JMU vs 5. Richmond
ISUB at Chattanooga vs 4. Jacksonville State


SHSU vs Cal Poly vs 6. EWU
Jacksonville at SC State vs 3. CCU


EKU at YSU vs 7. NOVA
Bryant at Fordham vs 2. UNH


Autobids(11): EWU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jax State, Fordham, Jacksonville, Chatty, SHSU
At-Large(13): Richmond, Nova, EWU, ISUR, YSU, ISUB, Cal Poly, Montana St, EKU, McNeese State, SFA, JMU, NAU


Bubble: SDSU, UNI, SELA, Montana, Bethune-Cookman, NCAT, William and Mary, Delaware, Albany, SIU, Bucknell and Sacred Heart

Wait, so Liberty is in but they are neither an at large or auto bid?

And, IF LU is in, I can't imagine they wouldn't get a home game with their bid and all.

[FargoBison]

Wait, so Liberty is in but they are neither an at large or auto bid?

And, IF LU is in, I can't imagine they wouldn't get a home game with their bid and all.

I put EWU in twice, must have happened when I was trying to figure out the Big Sky autobid situation.

Would Liberty outbid JMU? Not sure about that.

[knucklehead]

Not sure, but I'd bet Liberty's bid is big. New host site. Could have 2 in VA.

[BigHouseClosedEnd]

JMU has a strong track record of being very cheap with their bidding. If that game were to occur, it would most definitely happen in Lynchburg.

[Professor Chaos]

Autobids(11): EWU, CCU, UNH, SC State, NDSU, Bryant, Jax State, Fordham, Jacksonville, Chatty, SHSU
At-Large(13): Richmond, Nova, ISUR, YSU, ISUB, Cal Poly, Montana St, EKU, McNeese State, SFA, NAU, JMU, Liberty

Bubble: SDSU, UNI, SELA, Montana, Bethune-Cookman, NCAT, William and Mary, Delaware, Albany, SIU, Bucknell and Sacred Heart
I don't think SFA had much of an argument for an at large bid right now. Their only good win is against SELA and they have a D2 win among their 5 other wins. I'd put SDSU or Montana in before SFA.

[lionsrking2]

I don't think SFA had much of an argument for an at large bid right now. Their only good win is against SELA and they have a D2 win among their 5 other wins. I'd put SDSU or Montana in before SFA.

If SFA wins out they are in. McNeese would likely be out if that happens. Both will not make it.

[FargoBison]

I don't think SFA had much of an argument for an at large bid right now. Their only good win is against SELA and they have a D2 win among their 5 other wins. I'd put SDSU or Montana in before SFA.

Montana has no quality wins(plus a D2 win), I just can't put them in. SFA at least has the SELA win.

SDSU is close, if they beat ISUB they will be in next week.

[knucklehead]

JMU has a strong track record of being very cheap with their bidding. If that game were to occur, it would most definitely happen in Lynchburg.
That is my thought. I'd guess LU's bid is strong. Gotta win some games first though.

[McNeese75]

If SFA wins out they are in. McNeese would likely be out if that happens. Both will not make it.

And if SELA loses in two weeks they will probably not make it as well.

[lionsrking2]

And if SELA loses in two weeks they will probably not make it as well.

you're probably right.

[McNeese75]

And it probably won't happen, lol

[FargoBison]

Has JMU been back to the playoffs since their last bid fiasco? It wouldn't shock me if they bid strong just because of how that all went down.

Also sorting out the SLC was a mess, from the autobid to who could get an at-large. Nobody really stands out.

[FargoBison]

Nobowls.com bracket...

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png

[smilo]

Ouchie, a road first round game for Villanova. I hope that's not true.

[FargoBison]

Ouchie, a road first round game for Villanova. I hope that's not true.

Well I don't see 3 seeded MVFC teams, so Nova likely will be seeded if they win out.

[WestCoastAggie]

Bethune-Cookman owns all MEAC tie breakers due to their victory over FIU.

[rokamortis]

Bethune-Cookman owns all MEAC tie breakers due to their victory over FIU.

In regards to selection / seeding - does anyone know if the committee cares if a team didn't schedule a full 12 game schedule? There are a few teams with 11 game schedules, the one I wonder the most about is Jax St who has 11 games and a DII. They could finish 10-1 with some decent wins, a FBS loss, but also a DII win. So, if they win out, will they be seen as a 1 loss team, a 9 DI win team, or something else entirely?

[Big_Fan]

In regards to selection / seeding - does anyone know if the committee cares if a team didn't schedule a full 12 game schedule? There are a few teams with 11 game schedules, the one I wonder the most about is Jax St who has 11 games and a DII. They could finish 10-1 with some decent wins, a FBS loss, but also a DII win. So, if they win out, will they be seen as a 1 loss team, a 9 DI win team, or something else entirely?


Well, assuming we win out, we will have beaten 2 ranked teams on the road, including the likely SoCon champ. 11 games is a full schedule traditionally... we couldn't find a 12th game. No FBS opponents wanted us (too dangerous I guess), and no FCS wanted to come to us. We didn't want to add a 2nd D2 game.
EIU is a good team as well, though they have some losses. We have looked very strong, not just winning, but doing so in dominant fashion.

I would hope for a top 4 seed if we win out... whether we are viewed as a 9 game winner or not.

[ejjones]

Bethune-Cookman owns all MEAC tie breakers due to their victory over FIU.
Not true; points only come into play if head to head doesn't play out. Sc State owns head to head over BC & A&T. So, if all three win out SC State gets auto.

[rokamortis]

Well, assuming we win out, we will have beaten 2 ranked teams on the road, including the likely SoCon champ. 11 games is a full schedule traditionally... we couldn't find a 12th game. No FBS opponents wanted us (too dangerous I guess), and no FCS wanted to come to us. We didn't want to add a 2nd D2 game.
EIU is a good team as well, though they have some losses. We have looked very strong, not just winning, but doing so in dominant fashion.

I would hope for a top 4 seed if we win out... whether we are viewed as a 9 game winner or not.

You guys certainly have a good resume - not questioning that at all. Just trying to figure out if 11 games hurts a team or not.

[Rjones61]

Nobowls.com bracket...

http://nobowls.com/images/week10.png



Although you can make an interesting case for it, there is no way the playoff committee puts EWU behind three MVFC teams.

[MacThor]

I like the look of that bracket for UR, but would the selection committee really put two teams in the same "eighth" that UR already played in the regular season?

[chattownmocs]

Any chance the Mocs get a top 8 seed if they win out? Seems like it would be close.

[JaxSinfonian]

You guys certainly have a good resume - not questioning that at all. Just trying to figure out if 11 games hurts a team or not.

This is mostly speculation on my part, but I think an 11-game schedule only hurts teams who wind up short on DI wins. If you play an FBS and lose, play a DII, then lose three FCS games, you've got just six DI wins, and your playoff hopes are toast. A 12th game on the schedule would have provided one more chance for a seventh win.


So, if they win out, will they be seen as a 1 loss team, a 9 DI win team, or something else entirely?

A nine DI-win team, with scrutiny of the quality of the opponents they've beaten.

[kalm]

This is mostly speculation on my part, but I think an 11-game schedule only hurts teams who wind up short on DI wins. If you play an FBS and lose, play a DII, then lose three FCS games, you've got just six DI wins, and your playoff hopes are toast. A 12th game on the schedule would have provided one more chance for a seventh win.



A nine DI-win team, with scrutiny of the quality of the opponents they've beaten.

That sounds about right.

[Gil Dobie]

I like the look of that bracket for UR, but would the selection committee really put two teams in the same "eighth" that UR already played in the regular season?

NDSU played SDSU, after SDSU won the first round game a few years ago.

[JMU2004]

I like the look of that bracket for UR, but would the selection committee really put two teams in the same "eighth" that UR already played in the regular season?

I doubt it. JMU and Liberty will meet if both make it simply due to proximity and the lack of close seeds. However, no way UR has to meet teams that they played already.

[UNH Fanboi]

In regards to selection / seeding - does anyone know if the committee cares if a team didn't schedule a full 12 game schedule? There are a few teams with 11 game schedules, the one I wonder the most about is Jax St who has 11 games and a DII. They could finish 10-1 with some decent wins, a FBS loss, but also a DII win. So, if they win out, will they be seen as a 1 loss team, a 9 DI win team, or something else entirely?

In 2008, the Committee selected 8-4 Maine over 7-4 William & Mary even though William & Mary was widely regarded as the better team and had a win over playoff team UNH (who Maine lost to). W&M also had no bad losses. When asked about the selection one of the Committee members said that they picked Maine because they had 8 wins.

So there is not a specific criteria against scheduling 11 games, but it wouldn't surprise me at all for the Committee to superficially pick a 12-game team over an 11-game team simply because the 12-game team has a meaningless extra win over a PFL team. Unfortunately I think that many of the Committee members do not look at teams' schedules in depth, so it's easy for them to be swayed by W-L record without looking any deeper.

[kalm]

In 2008, the Committee selected 8-4 Maine over 7-4 William & Mary even though William & Mary was widely regarded as the better team and had a win over playoff team UNH (who Maine lost to). W&M also had no bad losses. When asked about the selection one of the Committee members said that they picked Maine because they had 8 wins.

So there is not a specific criteria against scheduling 11 games, but it wouldn't surprise me at all for the Committee to superficially pick a 12-game team over an 11-game team simply because the 12-game team has a meaningless extra win over a PFL team. Unfortunately I think that many of the Committee members do not look at teams' schedules in depth, so it's easy for them to be swayed by W-L record without looking any deeper.

In which case they wouldn't be doing their job and I find that hard to believe.

- - - Updated - - -


I doubt it. JMU and Liberty will meet if both make it simply due to proximity and the lack of close seeds. However, no way UR has to meet teams that they played already.

Why not? It can potentially happen every year and sometimes does.

[rokamortis]

I doubt it. JMU and Liberty will meet if both make it simply due to proximity and the lack of close seeds. However, no way UR has to meet teams that they played already.

I don't think the committee is going to be that concerned about round 2 matchups. If it makes sense with the seeds and travel, then I could easily see the scenario presented and it fits within the rulebook.

Of course they could choose to do something completely different - like the BCU and Coastal winner being sent out to Montana last year.

[Gordon Shumway]

I like the look of that bracket for UR, but would the selection committee really put two teams in the same "eighth" that UR already played in the regular season?


I doubt it. JMU and Liberty will meet if both make it simply due to proximity and the lack of close seeds. However, no way UR has to meet teams that they played already.

There were 3 CAA teams in the same eight in 2010, but that was a smaller field. Second round matchups with someone you already played is not a problem for the commitee. Early in the playoffs travel distance will trump other factors every time. Just last year UNH played Maine twice in 3 weeks.

[knucklehead]

In 2008, the Committee selected 8-4 Maine over 7-4 William & Mary even though William & Mary was widely regarded as the better team and had a win over playoff team UNH (who Maine lost to). W&M also had no bad losses. When asked about the selection one of the Committee members said that they picked Maine because they had 8 wins.

So there is not a specific criteria against scheduling 11 games, but it wouldn't surprise me at all for the Committee to superficially pick a 12-game team over an 11-game team simply because the 12-game team has a meaningless extra win over a PFL team. Unfortunately I think that many of the Committee members do not look at teams' schedules in depth, so it's easy for them to be swayed by W-L record without looking any deeper.
And over a 10-2 Liberty team ranked #14

[rokamortis]

And over a 10-2 Liberty team ranked #14

You guys had 2 DIIs making you effectively 8-2 and the losses weren't that impressive.

[Cocky]

Tenn State and EIU played in the 2nd round last year.

[tingly]

Craig Haley's bracket where he seeds after guessing how future games will go
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot/news/newstest.aspx?id=4735465

South Dakota St./Montana St. at #1 North Dakota St.
Eastern Kentucky/Illinois St. at #8 Chattanooga
Cal Poly/McNeese St. at #5 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville/South Carolina St. at #4 Coastal Carolina
Bethune-Cookman/Liberty at #3 Jacksonville St.
Bryant/Richmond at #6 Villanova
Sam Houston St./Montana at #7 Southeastern Louisiana
Fordham/Youngstown St. at #2 New Hampshire
bubbles: Idaho St., Indiana St., James Madison, NC A&T, Northern Arizona

[bostonspider]

Interesting, he does not have either JMU or W&M in the bracket, leading me to believe he thinks Richmond will beat them both, but then he has UR not receiving a seed, which would mean they would have to lose at least once..

[dewey]

Craig Haley's bracket where he seeds after guessing how future games will go
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot/news/newstest.aspx?id=4735465

South Dakota St./Montana St. at #1 North Dakota St.
Eastern Kentucky/Illinois St. at #8 Chattanooga
Cal Poly/McNeese St. at #5 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville/South Carolina St. at #4 Coastal Carolina
Bethune-Cookman/Liberty at #3 Jacksonville St.
Bryant/Richmond at #6 Villanova
Sam Houston St./Montana at #7 Southeastern Louisiana
Fordham/Youngstown St. at #2 New Hampshire
bubbles: Idaho St., Indiana St., James Madison, NC A&T, Northern Arizona

Crazy to see Illinois State not even seeded after losing their first game of the season. I still think if they finish the season with 1 loss they deserve to be seeded. Plus two potential rematches in the second round. I hate the idea of the regionalization. The #1 seed should be lined up against the worst two at large teams but regionalization would give NDSU either South Dakota State or Montana State who are significantly better than Jacksonville or South Caronlina State.

Dewey

[FordhamFan]

Crazy to see Illinois State not even seeded after losing their first game of the season. I still think if they finish the season with 1 loss they deserve to be seeded. Plus two potential rematches in the second round. I hate the idea of the regionalization. The #1 seed should be lined up against the worst two at large teams but regionalization would give NDSU either South Dakota State or Montana State who are significantly better than Jacksonville or South Caronlina State.

Dewey

I agree with you there, it's remarkable how NDSU handles significantly better teams in the earlier rounds of the playoffs and continues to be so successful. Regionalization is a bastard, but it's just part of FCS unfortunately.

[UNH Fanboi]

Craig Haley's bracket where he seeds after guessing how future games will go
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot/news/newstest.aspx?id=4735465

South Dakota St./Montana St. at #1 North Dakota St.
Eastern Kentucky/Illinois St. at #8 Chattanooga
Cal Poly/McNeese St. at #5 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville/South Carolina St. at #4 Coastal Carolina
Bethune-Cookman/Liberty at #3 Jacksonville St.
Bryant/Richmond at #6 Villanova
Sam Houston St./Montana at #7 Southeastern Louisiana
Fordham/Youngstown St. at #2 New Hampshire
bubbles: Idaho St., Indiana St., James Madison, NC A&T, Northern Arizona

SELA seeded? SHSU in with a 47-21 D-2 loss?

Edit: I just realized that SHSU is still eligible for the autobid. I don't see them getting at at-large.

[JSU02]

Craig Haley's bracket where he seeds after guessing how future games will go
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot/news/newstest.aspx?id=4735465

South Dakota St./Montana St. at #1 North Dakota St.
Eastern Kentucky/Illinois St. at #8 Chattanooga
Cal Poly/McNeese St. at #5 Eastern Washington
Jacksonville/South Carolina St. at #4 Coastal Carolina
Bethune-Cookman/Liberty at #3 Jacksonville St.
Bryant/Richmond at #6 Villanova
Sam Houston St./Montana at #7 Southeastern Louisiana
Fordham/Youngstown St. at #2 New Hampshire
bubbles: Idaho St., Indiana St., James Madison, NC A&T, Northern Arizona

Personally, I love this bracket.xthumbsupx

[tingly]

I'd say he has Eastern Washington, Montana and Cal Poly winning out, too. Montana and Cal Poly are real iffy to do that.

He might have SELA winning Southland with a couple of possible seeds losing in the next 3 weeks, hard to say. SHSU is on NoBowls' bracket, but SELA isn't at all. Weirdness.

[AggieManiac704]

I'm not sure a 10 win season with a loss to SCSU & Coastal will get us in without an autobid. Wouldn't be upset though. Gotta win those games during the season.

[TypicalTribe]

In 2008, the Committee selected 8-4 Maine over 7-4 William & Mary even though William & Mary was widely regarded as the better team and had a win over playoff team UNH (who Maine lost to). W&M also had no bad losses. When asked about the selection one of the Committee members said that they picked Maine because they had 8 wins.

Then, in 2012, they chose an 8-4 UNH team over a 7-4 Towson team that had two FCS losses and had slaughtered UNH in Durham in the last game of the season.

[dbackjon]

I put EWU in twice, must have happened when I was trying to figure out the Big Sky autobid situation.

Would Liberty outbid JMU? Not sure about that.


If NAU wins out, they would get the autob9d, I believe.

[UNH Fanboi]

Then, in 2012, they chose an 8-4 UNH team over a 7-4 Towson team that had two FCS losses and had slaughtered UNH in Durham in the last game of the season.

UNH was 8-3 in the regular season. And according to the Committee, UNH wasn't even one of the last teams in. They even got a bye to the second round! But no argument from me on the merits of UNH vs. Towson that year. Towson was clearly the more deserving team.

[tomq04]

If NAU wins out, they would get the autob9d, I believe.
that is correct

[tingly]

Does Big Sky's head-to-head tiebreaker require all of the teams in the tie to have played each other? I can't find anything official on that. It's good for EWU if so, NAU if not.

[dbackjon]

Does Big Sky's head-to-head tiebreaker require all of the teams in the tie to have played each other? I can't find anything official on that. It's good for EWU if so, NAU if not.

No they don't all have to play each other.

[Mattymc727]

UNH was 8-3 in the regular season. And according to the Committee, UNH wasn't even one of the last teams in. They even got a bye to the second round! But no argument from me on the merits of UNH vs. Towson that year. Towson was clearly the more deserving team.

I actually think that was the weakest UNH team since the start of the playoff streak. Only good win that year was barely beating Richmond at home. UNH shouldnt have really been in the playoffs that year and it showed.

[UNH Fanboi]

I actually think that was the weakest UNH team since the start of the playoff streak. Only good win that year was barely beating Richmond at home. UNH shouldnt have really been in the playoffs that year and it showed.

I agree.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

I actually think that was the weakest UNH team since the start of the playoff streak. Only good win that year was barely beating Richmond at home. UNH shouldnt have really been in the playoffs that year and it showed.


I agree.

About the playoff inclusion, I disagree. IIRC, UNH won six CAA games that season and was 8-3 overall. They found a way to win multiple games that easily could have been lost. That deserves to make the playoffs. No argument that they weren't a true championship contender, but that's a different story. If you recall Wofford was viewed as the third or fourth best team when the playoffs were finished. Nothing about losing to a very good team on their turf equates to shouldn't make the playoffs. UNH wasn't a top level team and really struggled with big, deep, disciplined defenses (W&M, Wofford) and teams with great size, speed, talent, depth (Towson). IIRC, they still ended up being ranked in the teens at the end of that season. And it was never a Towson or UNH decision for the committee. If it was then UNH doesn't get a bye in the first round.

Sorry, just realized this is the Bracketology thread, just reacting to what others have written. UNH folks can start a thread on our own forum for further discussion.

[MacThor]

Sure, I know I've seen where a bye team could get a rematch in round 2 if a certain team won, but I don't recall seeing a guaranteed rematch (where you've played both first round teams).

[mcveyrl]

Interesting, he does not have either JMU or W&M in the bracket, leading me to believe he thinks Richmond will beat them both, but then he has UR not receiving a seed, which would mean they would have to lose at least once..

He also has Coastal Carolina as a seed, which i'm assuming means they beat Liberty, meaning he has a 7 win Liberty team in over either an 8 win JMU with a win over W&M or an 8 win W&M team with a win over UR...as explained above that would be contrary to the committee's MO the past few years - despite a couple of quality wins by LU.

[WileECoyote06]

I'm not sure a 10 win season with a loss to SCSU & Coastal will get us in without an autobid. Wouldn't be upset though. Gotta win those games during the season.

Agreed. BCU is a thorn in your side. They've more DI Wins, a better SOS, better OOC wins (including FBS) and no bad losses (SCSU was a true road game).

Also, since Jacksonville is looking like they will receive the Pioneer autobid, it's a no-brainer in terms of matchups. A&T has to defeat Morgan and hope SCSU trips up against Morgan. . which is definitely a possibility.

[WestCoastAggie]

I'm not sure a 10 win season with a loss to SCSU & Coastal will get us in without an autobid. Wouldn't be upset though. Gotta win those games during the season.

And A&T winning 10 games is nothing to gawk at.

[ejjones]

Agreed. BCU is a thorn in your side. They've more DI Wins, a better SOS, better OOC wins (including FBS) and no bad losses (SCSU was a true road game).

Also, since Jacksonville is looking like they will receive the Pioneer autobid, it's a no-brainer in terms of matchups. A&T has to defeat Morgan and hope SCSU trips up against Morgan. . which is definitely a possibility.
Everything's a possibility; even starting with Thursdays matchup. Only safe bet for MEAC is autobid. If we don't get it, we deserve to be home.

[UNIFanSince1983]

Okay so I did the same thing late in the week last week, but got a better jump on it this week.

This is the playoff field based on my FCS BCS rankings. This also does not predict how they will finish just where they stand right now. I just used the same auto bids as the first post as I did not have time to look up who is currently in first and winning tie breakers. If those are wrong let me know. I can provide more information about this if anyone wants.

Top 8
1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jacksonville St.
4) CCU
5) EWU
6) Villanova
7) Illinois St.
8) Richmond

Remaining Auto Bids:
Bryant
S Carolina St.
Fordham
Jacksonville
Chattanooga
Sam Houston St.
Northern Arizona

Remaining At Large:
McNeese St.
Youngstown St.
SE Louisiana
Northern Iowa
Indiana St.
Montana
E Kentucky
S Dakota St.
Montana St.

Take it for what you will.

Edit: Adding NAU as the BSC autobid

[robsnotes4u]

Okay so I did the same thing late in the week last week, but got a better jump on it this week.

This is the playoff field based on my FCS BCS rankings. This also does not predict how they will finish just where they stand right now. I just used the same auto bids as the first post as I did not have time to look up who is currently in first and winning tie breakers. If those are wrong let me know. I can provide more information about this if anyone wants.

Top 8
1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jacksonville St.
4) CCU
5) EWU
6) Villanova
7) Illinois St.
8) Richmond

Remaining Auto Bids:
Bryant
S Carolina St.
Fordham
Jacksonville
Chattanooga
Sam Houston St.

Remaining At Large:
McNeese St.
Youngstown St.
SE Louisiana
Northern Iowa
Indiana St.
Montana
E Kentucky
S Dakota St.
Montana St.
Bethune-Cookman

Take it for what you will.


NAU would have the auto bid for the BSC. Cal Poly and Idaho State?

[RabidRabbit]

DbackJon states "If NAU wins out, they would get the autob9d, I believe."

IMO, this is correct, and they have three bottom half Big Sky teams left. So shouldn't lose.

If NAU does lose, their two bad losses (USD, tenth in MVFC, and UNC 10th or lower in BSC) will keep them out of the play-offs.

Is it possible, or plausible that EWU misses play-offs? (asking - really don't know the answer). If there is a 4 way jam of 7-1 teams at the top of Big Sky, and EWU isn't one of them, could they get left on sidelines with a 9-3 record? If not, which, if any of the teams finishing ahead gets left home. Or are we looking at 5, maybe 6 teams from the Big Sky, and MVFC left with 2 again?

As stated else where, there is a very real chance that MVFC only has two 8 game winners (NDSU & IL St), and three 7-5 teams (YSU, UNI, ISU(b)) that don't get picked. SDSU would be out, as would SIU because don't have 7 D-I wins with lower level games.

If MVFC gets only two teams in, I would expect that both would be seeded.

[UNIFanSince1983]

NAU would have the auto bid for the BSC. Cal Poly and Idaho State?

Okay well if you add in NAU as auto bid then Bethune-Cookman gets booted out.

As for ISUo and CP they each have problems in the rankings. CP is super weak in the computer ranking portion of the rating. ISUo is super weak in the human polls unfortunately. CP is 24th overall while ISUo is 26th.

[FargoBison]

DbackJon states "If NAU wins out, they would get the autob9d, I believe."

IMO, this is correct, and they have three bottom half Big Sky teams left. So shouldn't lose.

If NAU does lose, their two bad losses (USD, tenth in MVFC, and UNC 10th or lower in BSC) will keep them out of the play-offs.

Is it possible, or plausible that EWU misses play-offs? (asking - really don't know the answer). If there is a 4 way jam of 7-1 teams at the top of Big Sky, and EWU isn't one of them, could they get left on sidelines with a 9-3 record? If not, which, if any of the teams finishing ahead gets left home. Or are we looking at 5, maybe 6 teams from the Big Sky, and MVFC left with 2 again?

As stated else where, there is a very real chance that MVFC only has two 8 game winners (NDSU & IL St), and three 7-5 teams (YSU, UNI, ISU(b)) that don't get picked. SDSU would be out, as would SIU because don't have 7 D-I wins with lower level games.

If MVFC gets only two teams in, I would expect that both would be seeded.

EWU at 9-3 is an absolute lock

[97Torero]

For what its worth, if San Diego, Dayton and Jacksonville win the rest of their conference games (which is probable), San Diego wins the PFL tie breaker.

http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/

[JSUBison]

For what its worth, if San Diego, Dayton and Jacksonville win the rest of their conference games (which is probable), San Diego wins the PFL tie breaker.

http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/

I hope San Diego does win the autobid. A western Pioneer team would make those bracket predictions a bit more interesting with SD playing at a SLC or BS team in the first round.

[MTfan4life]

For what its worth, if San Diego, Dayton and Jacksonville win the rest of their conference games (which is probable), San Diego wins the PFL tie breaker.

http://www.pioneer-football.org/news/archives/

So, even though they beat San Diego and didn't lose to Dayton, Jacksonville's playoff hopes now rely on either Butler or Drake to beat Dayton. Crazy stuff. I guess that's what they get for losing to Marist. Both Drake and Butler did do pretty well against San Diego, though, so not all Dolphin hope is lost. For now, that will temporarily switch up my bracket. I guess I'll throw mine into the ring this time:




1. North Dakota State


@South Dakota State




Northern Arizona







@Liberty




Youngstown State




8. Richmond







4. Coastal Carolina


@South Carolina State




McNeese State







@Eastern Kentucky




Chattanooga




5. Villanova







6. Illinois State


@Sam Houston State




Southeastern Louisiana






@Bethune-Cookman




North Carolina A&T




3. Jacksonville State







7. Eastern Washington


@Cal Poly




San Diego







@Fordham




Bryant




2. New Hampshire



Auto-bids: North Dakota State, New Hampshire, San Diego, Bryant, Fordham, South Carolina State, Northern Arizona, Sam Houston State, Chattanooga, Jacksonville State, and Coastal Carolina.
At-large: Illinois State, Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond, North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State, Eastern Kentucky, and Liberty.
Last teams out (8-4/7-4 or better) Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, James Madison, Bucknell, Sacred Heart, Samford.

Pretty bold putting Liberty in there in front of 4 schools who have won an NC, but they'd be the only one with a win over a playoff team.

[robsnotes4u]

San Diego plays Cal Poly the last game of the year. I would guess they do not win out. Second, that would be weird to play the same team two weeks in a row. Guess it could happen since they aren't in the same conference, but weird.

[MTfan4life]

San Diego plays Cal Poly the last game of the year. I would guess they do not win out. Second, that would be weird to play the same team two weeks in a row. Guess it could happen since they aren't in the same conference, but weird.

Their game against Cal Poly will be completely irrelevant to their playoff hopes. They just need to win out in conference play and also hope that Dayton wins out as well.

[WileECoyote06]

So, even though they beat San Diego and didn't lose to Dayton, Jacksonville's playoff hopes now rely on either Butler or Drake to beat Dayton. Crazy stuff. I guess that's what they get for losing to Marist. Both Drake and Butler did do pretty well against San Diego, though, so not all Dolphin hope is lost. For now, that will temporarily switch up my bracket. I guess I'll throw mine into the ring this time:




1. North Dakota State


@South Dakota State



Northern Arizona







@Liberty



Youngstown State




8. Richmond







4. Coastal Carolina


@South Carolina State



McNeese State







@Eastern Kentucky



Chattanooga




5. Villanova







6. Illinois State


@Sam Houston State



Southeastern Louisiana






@Bethune-Cookman



North Carolina A&T




3. Jacksonville State







7. Eastern Washington


@Cal Poly



San Diego







@Fordham



Bryant




2. New Hampshire



Auto-bids: North Dakota State, New Hampshire, San Diego, Bryant, Fordham, South Carolina State, Northern Arizona, Sam Houston State, Chattanooga, Jacksonville State, and Coastal Carolina.
At-large: Illinois State, Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond, North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State, Eastern Kentucky, and Liberty.
Last teams out (8-4/7-4 or better) Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, James Madison, Bucknell, Sacred Heart, Samford.

Pretty bold putting Liberty in there in front of 4 schools who have won an NC, but they'd be the only one with a win over a playoff team.

Even bolder putting A&T and Bethune-Cookman vs each other. Highly doubtful but that would be the type of game that can generate a lot of drama and attention. Especially since A&T will likely outbid BCU. Boy if that happens I'm headed to Aggie Stadium.

[Wildcat Pride]

UNH played Maine in the last game of the year in Durham, then 2 weeks later they played them in Orono

[knucklehead]

So, even though they beat San Diego and didn't lose to Dayton, Jacksonville's playoff hopes now rely on either Butler or Drake to beat Dayton. Crazy stuff. I guess that's what they get for losing to Marist. Both Drake and Butler did do pretty well against San Diego, though, so not all Dolphin hope is lost. For now, that will temporarily switch up my bracket. I guess I'll throw mine into the ring this time:




1. North Dakota State


@South Dakota State




Northern Arizona







@Liberty




Youngstown State




8. Richmond







4. Coastal Carolina


@South Carolina State




McNeese State







@Eastern Kentucky




Chattanooga




5. Villanova







6. Illinois State


@Sam Houston State




Southeastern Louisiana






@Bethune-Cookman




North Carolina A&T




3. Jacksonville State







7. Eastern Washington


@Cal Poly




San Diego







@Fordham




Bryant




2. New Hampshire



Auto-bids: North Dakota State, New Hampshire, San Diego, Bryant, Fordham, South Carolina State, Northern Arizona, Sam Houston State, Chattanooga, Jacksonville State, and Coastal Carolina.
At-large: Illinois State, Youngstown State, South Dakota State, Villanova, Richmond, North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman, Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Southeastern Louisiana, McNeese State, Eastern Kentucky, and Liberty.
Last teams out (8-4/7-4 or better) Montana, Montana State, Idaho State, James Madison, Bucknell, Sacred Heart, Samford.

Pretty bold putting Liberty in there in front of 4 schools who have won an NC, but they'd be the only one with a win over a playoff team.
Any bracket that has 1- Liberty on 2 - Liberty with a possible 2nd crack at UR is my favorite.

[Sycamore62]

if the crazy stuff that has to happen to get EIU in the playoffs happens, does OVC get all 3 teams in and does anyone get a seed?

[MacThor]

UNH played Maine in the last game of the year in Durham, then 2 weeks later they played them in Orono

Yes, but UNH had to advance to play Maine. I think a JMU v Liberty-->Richmond bracket would be the first time a team's first game would be guaranteed to be an opponent they faced in the regular season.

[MTfan4life]

Yes, but UNH had to advance to play Maine. I think a JMU v Liberty-->Richmond bracket would be the first time a team's first game would be guaranteed to be an opponent they faced in the regular season.

In 2005, Montana played Cal Poly in the first round and they had played each other just about a month before that.

[yorkcountyUNHfan]

Yes, but UNH had to advance to play Maine. I think a JMU v Liberty-->Richmond bracket would be the first time a team's first game would be guaranteed to be an opponent they faced in the regular season.

Ya, but UNH played Lafayette so....

I kid....I kid

[UNHWildcat18]

Okay so I did the same thing late in the week last week, but got a better jump on it this week.

This is the playoff field based on my FCS BCS rankings. This also does not predict how they will finish just where they stand right now. I just used the same auto bids as the first post as I did not have time to look up who is currently in first and winning tie breakers. If those are wrong let me know. I can provide more information about this if anyone wants.

Top 8
1) NDSU
2) UNH
3) Jacksonville St.
4) CCU
5) EWU
6) Villanova
7) Illinois St.
8) Richmond

Remaining Auto Bids:
Bryant
S Carolina St.
Fordham
Jacksonville
Chattanooga
Sam Houston St.
Northern Arizona

Remaining At Large:
McNeese St.
Youngstown St.
SE Louisiana
Northern Iowa
Indiana St.
Montana
E Kentucky
S Dakota St.
Montana St.

Take it for what you will.

Edit: Adding NAU as the BSC autobid

Not going to argue your entire bracket but you are smoking something if you think the MVFC will have SIX FRIGGEN TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS!? Give me a break

[frozennorth]

Yeah, there might be one after ndsu, isu, and ysu.

[R.A.]

B-CU is a would be 10-2 team with a loss to a potential Automatic Bid winner in SC State, a loss to FBS Central Florida, and a win over FBS Florida international... and some of you all really think that if they don't finish 10-2, they won't make the playoffs as an at large bid? xthumbsupx

If SC State wins the MEAC with a 9-3 record, and B-CU finished 10-2, both are making the playoffs... but I think SC State might struggle in these final regular season games.

The MEAC team that everyone really needs to be concerned with is North Carolina A&T... if they finish with a 10-2 record and somehow sneak into the playoffs? WATCH OUT. They are our best team in my opinion.

A&T's loses include a 31-30 loss to Coastal, and a 12-0 loss to SC State in a game where their starting QB didn't play due to injury.

If A&T makes the playoffs...

[UNH72Plus]

On the other hand, NC A&T's wins came against six FCS teams with a combined won/loss record of 13-39 and a D-II school.

Regarding the likely MVFC teams to get bids, if NDSU (9-0) and Illinois State (7-1) win out, there will be two teams with five losses and one with four losses. It's hard to believe that they would all deserve at-large bids.

[robsnotes4u]

On the other hand, NC A&T's wins came against six FCS teams with a combined won/loss record of 13-39 and a D-II school.

Regarding the likely MVFC teams to get bids, if NDSU (9-0) and Illinois State (7-1) win out, there will be two teams with five losses and one with four losses. It's hard to believe that they would all deserve at-large bids.

So what you are saying is NDSU and ISU need to help their conference mates out and lose a game down the stretch to get more in from the conference?xsmiley_wix

[Sycamore62]

Not going to argue your entire bracket but you are smoking something if you think the MVFC will have SIX FRIGGEN TEAMS IN THE PLAYOFFS!? Give me a break

So Ive heard the argument for and against whether at large bids take what conference you are in into consideration.

[WileECoyote06]

So what you are saying is NDSU and ISU need to help their conference mates out and lose a game down the stretch to get more in from the conference?xsmiley_wix

Actually this would probably help.

[UNHWildcat18]

So Ive heard the argument for and against whether at large bids take what conference you are in into consideration.

Regardless, you won't see 6 mvfc teams in. UNI will lose to NDSU this weekend so there is one kicking itself out right there. Just thought it was absurd he wrote in 6 teams in the first place.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Regardless, you won't see 6 mvfc teams in. UNI will lose to NDSU this weekend so there is one kicking itself out right there. Just thought it was absurd he wrote in 6 teams in the first place.

The MVFC will take care of itself. The deserving teams will win over these final 3 weeks while the rest will fall off. That's exactly what will happen in the SEC West from now until Thanksgiving weekend....

I see 3, maybe 4 teams coming out of there when its all said and done....

[Sycamore62]

Regardless, you won't see 6 mvfc teams in. UNI will lose to NDSU this weekend so there is one kicking itself out right there. Just thought it was absurd he wrote in 6 teams in the first place.

I agree here and with owls, but I think this is just a list of if the playoffs started now type of bracket.

I dont know how it will play out, but THIS YEAR I think anyone in the conference at 8-4 or better should have a strong argument to get in. Last year the MVC had to change their plastic sheets on the bed after the OOC and post season collapse. I think some of those bubble teams will have a nice OOC resume to go with their conference record.

[IaaScribe]

Bethune-Cookman did not play Florida State. It played UCF. Kind of a big difference between the two.

[WestCoastAggie]

Expect A&T and Morgan State this to be an offensive shoot out this weekend. Both teams appear to have offenses that can compete in the playoffs.

[R.A.]

Bethune-Cookman did not play Florida State. It played UCF. Kind of a big difference between the two.

You're right. 2013 was Florida State.

But in 2014, there's still the FBS win over FIU and the potential for the 10-2 record for B-CU. So my point is still valid... they go 10-2, and the Wildcats are in, conference champs or not...

[R.A.]

On the other hand, NC A&T's wins came against six FCS teams with a combined won/loss record of 13-39 and a D-II school.

Hey, we've told our schools constantly to schedule FCS games... they keep playing these D IIs... so I don't feel so bad for A&T possibly getting left out. But, if they somehow make it, they have an offense that can score points, and a defense that bends but is learning not to break.

And I think Broadway is the best coach in the conference right now.

[FargoBison]

Fordham is the first team in, congrats to the Rams.

[Fordham]

Thanks Fargo!

[Ramblin' Man]

Fordham is the first team in, congrats to the Rams.

Thanks. Hope to see you in Frisco! xthumbsupx

[Humble Steward]

Expect A&T and Morgan State this to be an offensive shoot out this weekend. Both teams appear to have offenses that can compete in the playoffs.

Good luck to you both. I have been impressed with the improvement of both teams, but I am definitely rooting for A&T to win this game and win out.

[MacThor]

There's that pesky haven't won a playoff game since the Clinton administration thing. The last MEAC at large didn't do much to justify the committee's generosity.

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

[MR. CHICKEN]

20008.....TWENTAH-THREE TEAMS...WILL LOSE IN DUH PLAYOFFS......SOMEBODAH GOTTAH BE FIRST.....;)...BRAWK!



sent from mah computer.......HAL

[FargoBison]

Congrats the to the Mocs....The 2nd team in the FCS playoffs.

[kdinva]

The way this season has unfolded (and we have two more weeks to go), it would not surprise me if there are as many as seven 4-loss teams in the field of 24.

[WileECoyote06]

There's that pesky haven't won a playoff game since the Clinton administration thing. The last MEAC at large didn't do much to justify the committee's generosity.

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

Well each year is counted differently. And with A&T molly-whopping the same Morgan State team that took Villanova until the third quarter to figure out (31-0 at the half); you never know. I'm sure that will to figure into the criteria somehow; and it doesn't hurt that A&T's AD is on the committee.