CFP playoff rankings vs. how the FCS does it

[Lehigh Football Nation]

What do people think in regards to how the FCS Playoff committee does business with their playoff selections vs. the way the CFP did business yesterday?

The FCSPC has historically not announced their rationales until very close to selection day, and in some cases (use of an SRS) waited until after the selection to discuss their methodology. This has led to fire and brimstone after the selection process as to why some teams were chosen and others not.

Conversely, the CFP has tried to make their rationale semi-public and had a flashy show yesterday announcing the results. They've both created controversy (Ole Miss over Alabama? Oregon not a playoff team?) and IMO opened themselves up to the criticism that they are doing more to hype individual matchups this weekend (Auburn vs. Ole Miss) than seriously trying to pick the Top 4 teams.

Is one better than the other?

[FCS_pwns_FBS]

I think you need more transparency when you have a semifinal instead of a real playoff.

BTW, I wonder where the "the playoff will make the regular-season meaningless" crowd will be around the end of this year?

[Wildcat Pride]

I think once again you have to look at the old adage "Follow the money" The networks (ESPN) have paid so much for the rights to collage football they need advertising formats. The more controversial the better for viewership.

[344Johnson]

I think once again you have to look at the old adage "Follow the money" The networks (ESPN) have paid so much for the rights to collage football they need advertising formats. The more controversial the better for viewership.

I'm looking at Auburn, K-State, Oregon, and Michigan State.

I blew a gasket last night. Probably exactly what ESPN wanted....Notre Dame fans everywhere to be throwing crap.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I'm looking at Auburn, K-State, Oregon, and Michigan State.

I blew a gasket last night. Probably exactly what ESPN wanted....Notre Dame fans everywhere to be throwing crap.

CBS makes out quite nicely too. Now their Auburn/Ole Miss is a "playoff" game, probably good for 5 more ratings points and millions more in advertising rates.

[Cocky]

UAT fans are vocally upset.

[superman7515]

I think the CFP announcing their rankings weekly is a great thing. It's a shame the FCS doesn't have the following to make it worthwhile to do something similar over the last 20 years. It certainly would have made things interesting in the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday as teams on the bubble know it in advance and know exactly what teams they would be watching for losses, etc.

[bluehenbillk]

I think the committee's first poll release was on the money last night & will have an impact on G5 & FCS teams down the road - strength of schedule & quality wins are king & will be rewarded. I think their top 10 was excellent & easily defensible.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

I'm looking at Auburn, K-State, Oregon, and Michigan State.

I blew a gasket last night. Probably exactly what ESPN wanted....Notre Dame fans everywhere to be throwing crap.

I did :pumpuke:

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I think the committee's first poll release was on the money last night* & will have an impact on G5 & FCS teams down the road - strength of schedule & quality wins are king & will be rewarded. I think their top 10 was excellent & easily defensible.

* Unless you're an Oregon fan

So what's their methodology, exactly, for "quality win" or "strength of schedule", aside from the fact that membership in the SEC makes your schedule "strong"?

[Professor Chaos]

I don't know if the FCS selection committee has the means or the funding to get together weekly to hash out rankings so it's not really an option at this level. However, they absolutely need to publicize the SRS that they're using as their main rating system to assist in determining seeding and at large selection.

On another note, I don't really see how this is hurting teams who play FCS teams to this point. Each of the top 4 teams have an FCS team on their schedule and Florida St has already played The Citadel and is still sitting at #2. In fact the only team in the top 10 without an FCS team on it's schedule is Notre Dame. Maybe they should start scheduling FCS games :D

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I don't know if the FCS selection committee has the means or the funding to get together weekly to hash out rankings so it's not really an option at this level. However, they absolutely need to publicize the SRS that they're using as their main rating system to assist in determining seeding and at large selection.

ESPN could shake some money out of their couch cushions and host a 1/2 hour show for 3 weeks on ESPNews doing something similar for FCS. It might even make some money for both them and FCS.

[TypicalTribe]

I thought the committee did a very solid job for its initial ranking. I'm really interested to see how they will handle Florida State. Their two toughest games were at home and they won each by a field goal and they don't play a ranked team the rest of the season. Meanwhile, a team like Mississippi has to beat Auburn (#3), Mississippi St (#1) and Georgia to get in. I think the Pac-12, Big 12 and SEC champions will all heav better resumes than FSU by the end of the season. Would be interesting to see if the Seminoles could get pushed out given the committee's focus on strength of schedule and quality wins.

[superman7515]

I thought the committee did a very solid job for its initial ranking. I'm really interested to see how they will handle Florida State. Their two toughest games were at home and they won each by a field goal and they don't play a ranked team the rest of the season...

The Seminoles play a Louisville team tomorrow night that is ranked in the Top 25 by the playoff committee and they'll still get another in the ACC Championship game. Haven't won a single game this season by a field goal, so I'm not sure if you are just making this up as you go along or what?

Anyway, it's a moot point as long as the team stays undefeated, they're in. There's zero chance that the undefeated defending champ isn't getting into the playoffs.

[Catamount87]

As the old saying goes, follow the money trail. I think money is a "hidden" driver in this new CFP process. Whereas in FCS, money appears to have a much smaller influence.

[bluehenbillk]

* Unless you're an Oregon fan

So what's their methodology, exactly, for "quality win" or "strength of schedule", aside from the fact that membership in the SEC makes your schedule "strong"?

OK, so who's ranked too high & who's ranked too low in your opinion?
The top 2 you can't argue..they're undefeateds. Auburn is #3 - went on the road & beat K-State who is #9 in the poll. Ole Miss is #4, yea they lost to 2-loss LSU, but they beat #6 Alabama earlier in the year. Oregon is #5 - beat up on #8 Michigan State and Long mentioned their UCLA road thumping as well. Bama is #6 - their best win so far is West Va - & they lost on the road to Ole Miss. TCU is #7 - they beat Oklahoma for their best win & their only loss was 24 unanswered 4Q points at Baylor. MSU is #8 - their best win is vs #15 Nebraska & they went on the road & got beat by Oregon. #9 is K-State - beat Oklahoma on the road & only loss was tight at home vs Auburn. #10 is Notre Dame, best win is 3-loss Stanford & their loss was a nailbiter at FSU.

I don't need to goto the other 1-loss teams but you can see clearly how the committee is valuing quality wins....

[TypicalTribe]

The Seminoles play a Louisville team tomorrow night that is ranked in the Top 25 by the playoff committee and they'll still get another in the ACC Championship game. Haven't won a single game this season by a field goal, so I'm not sure if you are just making this up as you go along or what?

Anyway, it's a moot point as long as the team stays undefeated, they're in. There's zero chance that the undefeated defending champ isn't getting into the playoffs.

They play the #25 team that could very easily lose their last four games. Then, they may play a top 25 team in the ACC championship game, but only if Duke runs the table. If Clemson loses to Georgia Tech and South Carolina, there's a good chance Notre Dame will be the only top 25 win on the Noles resume. If Michigan State, Oregon, the SEC West champion and TCU/Baylor/KSU Big 12 winner go undefeated, they will all have tougher schedules and more quality wins than the Noles.

I don't think it will happen and I agree that the Seminoles still would get a bid, but it would still be an interesting discussion.

[UNH Fanboi]

ESPN could shake some money out of their couch cushions and host a 1/2 hour show for 3 weeks on ESPNews doing something similar for FCS. It might even make some money for both them and FCS.

Lol, no way they would ever do that, or that anyone other than hardcore AGS posters (about 100 people) would watch such a show.

[melloware13]

Lol, no way they would ever do that, or that anyone other than hardcore AGS posters (about 100 people) would watch such a show.

Or they could shove it onto ESPNU so at least one AGS poster (I can speak for myself) can't watch it.

[superman7515]

Lol, no way they would ever do that, or that anyone other than hardcore AGS posters (about 100 people) would watch such a show.

Wholeheartedly agree. ESPN is not in the business of losing money and I don't feel like sitting through another hour of the brilliance that is Jay Walker.

[MTfan4life]

I don't think the FCS needs to do the same process as the FBS because the big boys are picking 4 legitimate national title contenders where some seasons there are a dozen zero or one loss teams to choose from. The last 4 teams the FCS committee picks are usually just out of a hat of average resumes and 4+ loss teams who aren't likely even going to reach the title game. It'd be nice for the committee to be more transparent about seeding processes. However, outside of that, what they do is just fine to me.

[robsnotes4u]

I don't know if the FCS selection committee has the means or the funding to get together weekly to hash out rankings so it's not really an option at this level. However, they absolutely need to publicize the SRS that they're using as their main rating system to assist in determining seeding and at large selection.

On another note, I don't really see how this is hurting teams who play FCS teams to this point. Each of the top 4 teams have an FCS team on their schedule and Florida St has already played The Citadel and is still sitting at #2. In fact the only team in the top 10 without an FCS team on it's schedule is Notre Dame. Maybe they should start scheduling FCS games :D

My understanding is the FCS does ranking every week by phone. If I am incorrect, how much funding does it take to have a GotoMeeting, Skype, etc to have a weekly conference to discuss?

[Wildcat Pride]

Who makes up the FCS Selection committee?

[BisonTru]

Who makes up the FCS Selection committee?

Current members of the committee are:

Central Region
Troy Dannen
Director of Athletics
University of Northern Iowa

Brian Hutchinson
Director of Athletics
Morehead State University

Mark Wilson
Director of Athletics
Tennessee Technological University

East Region
Marty Scarano
Director of Athletics
University of New Hampshire

Frank McLaughlin
Associate Vice President
Fordham University

Paul Schlickmann
Director of Athletics
Central Connecticut State University

South Region
Chuck Burch
Director of Athletics
Gardner-Webb University

Earl Hilton
Director of Athletics
North Carolina A&T State University


Richard Johnson
Director of Athletics
Wofford College

West Region
Jeff Tingey
Director of Athletics
Idaho State University


Robert Hill, chair
Director of Athletics
Stephen F. Austin State University

[TypicalTribe]

Who makes up the FCS Selection committee?

http://ts3.mm.bing.net/th?id=HN.608034444513379695&w=272&h=145&c=7&rs=1&url=http%3a%2f%2fpeterthorburn.wordpress.com%2f201 1%2f04%2f28%2fmanaging-and-leading-through-the-7-dwarfs%2f&pid=1.7

[Lehigh Football Nation]

FWIW I think those are last years' committee members. This years I think haven't been announced yet, but I could be wrong.

[BisonTru]

FWIW I think those are last years' committee members. This years I think haven't been announced yet, but I could be wrong.

I believe that list is current.

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf (http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/PreChamp_D1_Football_2014-15_Revised2.pdf)

[walliver]

There are several differences:
1) One playoff will make beaucoups of dollars, the other loses money.
2) Although we have a little controversy with every FCS selection show, the "bubble teams" are generally not championship caliber teams.

The FBS committee is putting on a show now. By the end of the year, especially after "rivalry weekend", a lot of the teams listed will have lost another game or two, and there will be a lot less controversy. There will always be controversy about the last team in and last team out, but most fans will be in agreement about the top 3.

[robsnotes4u]

There are several differences:
1) One playoff will make beaucoups of dollars, the other loses money.
2) Although we have a little controversy with every FCS selection show, the "bubble teams" are generally not championship caliber teams.

The FBS committee is putting on a show now. By the end of the year, especially after "rivalry weekend", a lot of the teams listed will have lost another game or two, and there will be a lot less controversy. There will always be controversy about the last team in and last team out, but most fans will be in agreement about the top 3.

Good points

[Lehigh Football Nation]

There are several differences:
1) One playoff will make beaucoups of dollars, the other loses money.
2) Although we have a little controversy with every FCS selection show, the "bubble teams" are generally not championship caliber teams.

The FBS committee is putting on a show now. By the end of the year, especially after "rivalry weekend", a lot of the teams listed will have lost another game or two, and there will be a lot less controversy. There will always be controversy about the last team in and last team out, but most fans will be in agreement about the top 3.

In the meantime, they can hype up this weekend's Auburn vs. Ole Miss matchup.

[superman7515]

And the problem with that is?

[FargoBison]

I like everything about what the FBS is doing but one thing and that is of course the size of the field.

I would love to see an FCS committee that is made up of a mix of retired coaches, media people and ADs.

I would also like to see updates from the committee, give teams an idea of where they stand. Not saying this has to be a weekly deal but a couple of updates before selection Sunday would be cool.

[Big_Fan]

The FBS playoff poll is meaningless at this point.

Ole Miss plays Auburn and MSU
Alabama plays Auburn, LSU, and MSU
Auburn plays Georgia

MSU, Auburn, or Alabama win out, they are in.
MSU wins out, they may be the only team from the SEC to be in.

There are too many *what if's* for it to even be discussed. Bama fans can chill out. All they have to do is win and they will be in. They play 2 top 5 teams, and if Ole Miss drops another, Bama will play in the SEC title game. If Bama beats MSU, Auburn, LSU, and Georgia, and doesn't get in...well, that would be crazy. Assuming MSU doesn't lose another besides Alabama, and Auburn doesn't lose another besides Alabama (or maybe Bama and UGA), Bama's resume would be the best of any 1 loss team. The same can be said for Auburn winning out... or Ole Miss winning out. The reality is, all of them could drop another game.

Honestly, the FCS method of playoff selection is much better. It is a real playoff. The FBS system is simply an excuse to change. It is no better or worse than the BCS, just expanded to 4 teams.

[centennial]

The FBS system is made to make money and ratings. FCS is not. That said SRS was designed by a bunch of idiots. The reality is the FBS system is much better because of the scrunity they would get if they made BS picks. Imagine a second team from the Sun Belt in a 20 team playoff, all hell would break loose. The schools at the top have too much influence for something like that. In the FCS, politics rules the day. How else can we explain a team like SC State in last year..

[Lehigh Football Nation]

And the problem with that is?

The problem is, what are you trying to do, pick the four best teams, or trying to create some poll to be a backdrop to create better TV ratings for a game this weekend? I'm not going to put any stock in the credibility of their "poll" if they're simply to be a commercial for a particular CFB game, devised by a bunch of P5 fans.

I don't think anyone would have a problem with two SEC teams in the top 4. But three?

[Big_Fan]

The FBS system is made to make money and ratings. FCS is not. That said SRS was designed by a bunch of idiots. The reality is the FBS system is much better because of the scrunity they would get if they made BS picks. Imagine a second team from the Sun Belt in a 20 team playoff, all hell would break loose. The schools at the top have too much influence for something like that. In the FCS, politics rules the day. How else can we explain a team like SC State in last year..

I would agree that politics plays a role in the FCS paradigm, but I would argue that it is irrelevant. Realistically, how many teams stand a chance of winning it? The answer is "more than 4, but less than 24." Outside of the top 12, there aren't many teams who could win it.

Compare that with this 4 team playoff thing in the FBS, and it is totally different. There is a very good possibility that the best 4 will not be in, and if the SEC West eats itself over the next month (Auburn loses to Ole Miss, Bama beats MSU but loses to Auburn, Ole Miss beats MSU and loses to UGA in the championship - many other scenarios), the best 4 teams definitely won't be in.

[centennial]

I would agree that politics plays a role in the FCS paradigm, but I would argue that it is irrelevant. Realistically, how many teams stand a chance of winning it? The answer is "more than 4, but less than 24." Outside of the top 12, there aren't many teams who could win it.

Compare that with this 4 team playoff thing in the FBS, and it is totally different. There is a very good possibility that the best 4 will not be in, and if the SEC West eats itself over the next month (Auburn loses to Ole Miss, Bama beats MSU but loses to Auburn, Ole Miss beats MSU and loses to UGA in the championship - many other scenarios), the best 4 teams definitely won't be in.
The teams with the best seasons must be rewarded. Teams can also go on runs with low rankings(legitimate ones), what if Indiana State or W&M made the finals? It would be exciting football. Teams getting participation badges to get their ass kicked is wrong.

[superman7515]

The problem is, what are you trying to do, pick the four best teams, or trying to create some poll to be a backdrop to create better TV ratings for a game this weekend? I'm not going to put any stock in the credibility of their "poll" if they're simply to be a commercial for a particular CFB game, devised by a bunch of P5 fans.

I don't think anyone would have a problem with two SEC teams in the top 4. But three?

I feel that those are the four best teams from what we've seen so far. They're under no obligation to toss some random team in there just to avoid the appearance that the strongest conference in the nation is the strongest conference. What do these individuals gain from being "a backdrop to create better tv ratings"? Nothing. You dislike the FBS, which is fine, so you're looking for an issue to complain about where none exists. There are several weeks left and no way that all three SEC West teams remain there because they play each other and those losses will drop teams while others win and rise up.

http://www.cubbytees.com/ShirtPieces/Aaron_Rodgers_Says_Relax_Green_Bay_Packers--SHIRT--FRST.jpg

[TypicalTribe]

I wish they would stop calling the FBS event a playoff, it's a 4 team invitational.

[Fear the Bird]

The problem is, what are you trying to do, pick the four best teams, or trying to create some poll to be a backdrop to create better TV ratings for a game this weekend? I'm not going to put any stock in the credibility of their "poll" if they're simply to be a commercial for a particular CFB game, devised by a bunch of P5 fans.

I don't think anyone would have a problem with two SEC teams in the top 4. But three?

Those are the 4 best teams TODAY - they are just very fortuntae that Auburn plays Ole Miss this weekend. I find it interesting that you clearly have an axe to grind with the SEC and assume you feel that you are in the camp that how can you consider a conference dominant and downplay their losses against each other (as many incorrectly do on this board to the MVFC) yet you are beating the Oregon drum? The same Oregon team who you want to claim a UCLA (conference) beating as a "good win" and a HOME loss to Arizona (conference) as irrelevant?

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I feel that those are the four best teams from what we've seen so far. They're under no obligation to toss some random team in there just to avoid the appearance that the strongest conference in the nation is the strongest conference. What do these individuals gain from being "a backdrop to create better tv ratings"?

1. I am fairly certain TV money goes to every one of these people, either directly (Condy Rice is paid by CBS News) or indirectly (the conferences get money from Fox, ESPN, CBS). What is good for CBS, Fox, ESPN therefore is good for them.

2. The committee is also under no obligation to create a rankings system that makes any sense. Could they manipulate the rankings to hype up a game this weekend? Absolutely. How do we know that these people are really trying to rank the best teams? You can make a compelling argument that Bama should be the 3rd team, that Oregon should be in the Top 4, that TCU should be higher, that Florida State should be lower. But then again, that might not make Ole Miss/Auburn look as good.

My big problem is that the committee thinks that some PR guy trying to explain away questions is sufficient to satisfy the unwashed masses when the truth is there isn't any real scientific criteria - only what they say is criteria. In the BCS era, your could certainly complain about the criteria and how they came up with the numbers, but at least there was a formula you could look at and break down and see why the rankings were as they were. Here, they're planning on spinning that away. Something concrete is getting replaced by spin.

As others have noticed, the $$$ is not as big in the FCS (of course), and the stakes not nearly as high (determining the 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th worthy at-large teams is not as big a deal as determining which four teams will be invited to the CFP). You can get away with spin and saying "well, we looked at a bunch of different spreadsheets" when it's about final at-large bids. Not so when it's the CFP. But interestingly, they are following a similar playbook - only that the CFP is starting their process a lot earlier.

[FargoBison]

Ole Miss Auburn doesn't need to be hyped, even without the committee ranking you would have a game featuring two top 10 teams and the loser would basically have no shot to win the national title. That game sells itself.

[TypicalTribe]

Just looked at the Sagarin ratings and the SEC has the top 5 spots. FSU is 13th and that doesn't figure to get a heck of a lot better given their schedule.

[tribe_pride]

1. I am fairly certain TV money goes to every one of these people, either directly (Condy Rice is paid by CBS News) or indirectly (the conferences get money from Fox, ESPN, CBS). What is good for CBS, Fox, ESPN therefore is good for them.

2. The committee is also under no obligation to create a rankings system that makes any sense. Could they manipulate the rankings to hype up a game this weekend? Absolutely. How do we know that these people are really trying to rank the best teams? You can make a compelling argument that Bama should be the 3rd team, that Oregon should be in the Top 4, that TCU should be higher, that Florida State should be lower. But then again, that might not make Ole Miss/Auburn look as good.

My big problem is that the committee thinks that some PR guy trying to explain away questions is sufficient to satisfy the unwashed masses when the truth is there isn't any real scientific criteria - only what they say is criteria. In the BCS era, your could certainly complain about the criteria and how they came up with the numbers, but at least there was a formula you could look at and break down and see why the rankings were as they were. Here, they're planning on spinning that away. Something concrete is getting replaced by spin.

As others have noticed, the $$$ is not as big in the FCS (of course), and the stakes not nearly as high (determining the 10th, 11th, 12th, and 13th worthy at-large teams is not as big a deal as determining which four teams will be invited to the CFP). You can get away with spin and saying "well, we looked at a bunch of different spreadsheets" when it's about final at-large bids. Not so when it's the CFP. But interestingly, they are following a similar playbook - only that the CFP is starting their process a lot earlier.

You have to remember that under the BCS, 2/3 of the decision was based on polls (the other 1/3 on computer average) so it wasn't that concrete. Now it's just taking out the coaches (many who farmed their polls out to others to vote for them) and Harris (whoever that is) and computers (the only part that was a true formula) and making 100% of it a dozen people who are hired to look at all the games as opposed the people before who didn't have to do that. Not saying one is better than the other but there are advantages and disadvantages to both.

[WileECoyote06]

The FBS system is made to make money and ratings. FCS is not. That said SRS was designed by a bunch of idiots. The reality is the FBS system is much better because of the scrunity they would get if they made BS picks. Imagine a second team from the Sun Belt in a 20 team playoff, all hell would break loose. The schools at the top have too much influence for something like that. In the FCS, politics rules the day. How else can we explain a team like SC State in last year..

There are several ways to explain how they got in. But more than halfway through the 2014 season, fans still complaining about the selection is borderline psychotic. Like hanging chads in Florida and the 2012 Oscar for Best Film race, it's time to let it go.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

There are several ways to explain how they got in. But more than halfway through the 2014 season, fans still complaining about the selection is borderline psychotic. Like hanging chads in Florida and the 2012 Oscar for Best Film race, it's time to let it go.

No way Shakespeare in Love deserved best picture.

[WileECoyote06]

Just looked at the Sagarin ratings and the SEC has the top 5 spots. FSU is 13th and that doesn't figure to get a heck of a lot better given their schedule.

Massey composite has FSU at #5; with the top four going to the SEC.