MVFC Playoff Outlook

[Professor Chaos]

I thought I'd put together another one of these threads this year and update it weekly after the previous weeks games. It should be even more interesting to evaluate and discuss the playoff chances of teams around the conference with as many teams that are or will likely end up on the bubble. IMO, going into week 10, eight of the ten MVFC teams are still alive although some have more life than others. Here's how I'd break it down as of today in the order of teams with the easiest route to the playoffs (or the ones that are already there) to the teams with the toughest route.


Locks

North Dakota St (8-0, 4-0)
Remaining games: SDSU, @UNI, @MSU, YSU
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Montana, SIU, and ISUb.
I think Bison are locked into the field, in the unlikely event that they drop their last 4 it would be a sweat but I'd guess the committee would give them a bit of preferential treatment for obvious reasons. However, their sights are set on securing a top 2 seed which I think they can still get even if they drop a game.


Should be in

Illinois St (7-0, 4-0)
Remaining games: @UNI, YSU, @USD, and SIU
Quality wins: SDSU, @ISUb, and MSU
Their recent wins may not have been pretty but I'm sure they'll take effectiveness over style. One win in their last 4 should lock them in. As of now, they're in line for a seed that should get them multiple home playoff games and even if they drop a game they'd likely still be getting a first round bye with a top 8 seed.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (6-2, 3-1)
Remaining games: USD, @ISUr, ISUb, and @NDSU
Quality wins: @MSU, SIU, and @SDSU
The Penguins schedule down the stretch is once again very difficult with both ISUr and NDSU on the road but their road win in Brookings was huge. They need to figure out how to win at least 2, possibly 3, of their last 4 as their OOC slate is once again unimpressive and won't help them come selection time if they're on the bubble.

Indiana St (5-3, 2-2)
Remaining games: MSU, SDSU, @YSU, and @WIU
Quality wins: @Ball St, Liberty, UNI, and @SIU
With their huge road win in Carbondale the Sycs' playoff hopes are looking stronger. With their strong non-conference resume I think they can drop another game and be in pretty easily but they'll likely be playing teams who are in desperation mode the next two weeks and a road trip to the Ice Castle to face the Penguin is still looming so they have plenty of work left to do.

South Dakota St (5-3, 2-2)
Remaining games: @NDSU, @ISUb, WIU, and USD
Quality wins: Cal Poly, MSU, and @UNI
A week after picking up a road win at UNI the Jacks gave the cushion they gained right back with their home loss to YSU. Despite having a non-D1 win I think they can still drop 1 more (especially if its a respectable loss on the road @NDSU) and still sneak in but they'll need a bit of help elsewhere at 8-4 with a non-D1 win. Of course if they win out they're in but their next two weeks are going to be tough to get through unscathed.


Must win out

Southern Illinois (5-4, 2-3)
Remaining games: @MSU, UNI, and @ISUr
Quality wins: None really although EIU and SEMO are debatable
There's no cupcakes left on this schedule for the Salukis and after dropping their last three they've made things very difficult on themselves. Anything less than winning out will almost certainly be too little to get them in but the good thing about their tough remaining schedule is it gives them an opportunity to prove they belong in the playoffs if they take all three.

Northern Iowa (4-4, 2-2)
Remaining games: ISUr, NDSU, @SIU, MSU
Quality wins: None
The playoffs have already started for the Panthers and they survived their first test @WIU. They need to win out and if they do may even get the autobid with both the top two teams in the conference coming to the UNI-Dome in the next two weeks. Anthing less will likely have them sitting on the outside of the bubble come playoff time with their lack of quality wins.

Missouri St (4-4, 1-3)
Remaining games: @ISUb, SIU, NDSU, @UNI
Quality wins: @Northwestern St and @UCA
Despite the popular belief the Bears' season isn't lost yet but it's close. They can still get in by winning out but that's a tall order based on the fact that 2 are tough ones on the road and another is top ranked NDSU at home. Their chances may be slim but it's not impossible, for whatever that's worth.


Eliminated

Western Illinois (3-6, 1-4)
South Dakota (2-6, 0-4)
Unfortunately for the Necks and the Yotes their only role the rest of the year is to play spoiler for the plethora of bubble teams that will be trying to stay alive in the MVFC.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

I agree with NDSU a top 2 seed even if they have a loss. SDSU and YSU are at home and IMO, the Bison win both of those. UNI and MSU will be tough games but if the Bison continue to play like the last 3 weeks, they will end up 12-0 and the #1 seed.


Ill State is at UNI this week....huge game for the Panthers.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Valley games this coming week:


Missouri State @ Indiana State

South Dakota @ Youngstown State

SDSU @ NDSU

Illinois State @ UNI

[stevdock]

I personally feel any MVFC football team that can get to 5-3 in conference should be able to get into the playoffs. Only exception is probably UNI, but how will the committee look at 2 FBS losses is the question? The work the conference did in OOC games better show up during selection time, especially beating up on the area conferences, Big Sky, Southland, and Ohio Valley.

[TypicalTribe]

I don't see any of the 4 loss teams winning out, which would leave 5 possible playoff teams. NDSU and Ill State are almost definite. Youngstown's schedule is backloaded again this year and I think they'll be 8-4 at best. A week ago, I would have said any 8-4 MVFC team would be in, but with the way the Big Sky changed yesterday as well as the MEAC developments, it's possible there could be a little bigger group of bubble teams than expected. MVFC will get 3-5 teams, just will depend how a couple of the key games shake out. I think the Sycamores will play the most critical back-to-back set at home against SDSU and then on the road at YSU.

[penguinpower]

I thought I'd put together another one of these threads this year and update it weekly after the previous weeks games. It should be even more interesting to evaluate and discuss the playoff chances of teams around the conference with as many teams that are or will likely end up on the bubble. IMO, going into week 10, eight of the ten MVFC teams are still alive although some have more life than others. Here's how I'd break it down as of today in the order of teams with the easiest route to the playoffs (or the ones that are already there) to the teams with the toughest route.


Locks

North Dakota St (8-0, 4-0)
Remaining games: SDSU, @UNI, @MSU, YSU
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Montana, SIU, and ISUb.
I think Bison are locked into the field, in the unlikely event that they drop their last 4 it would be a sweat but I'd guess the committee would give them a bit of preferential treatment for obvious reasons. However, their sights are set on securing a top 2 seed which I think they can still get even if they drop a game.


Should be in

Illinois St (7-0, 4-0)
Remaining games: @UNI, YSU, @USD, and SIU
Quality wins: SDSU, @ISUb, and MSU
Their recent wins may not have been pretty but I'm sure they'll take effectiveness over style. One win in their last 4 should lock them in. As of now, they're in line for a seed that should get them multiple home playoff games and even if they drop a game they'd likely still be getting a first round bye with a top 8 seed.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (6-2, 3-1)
Remaining games: USD, @ISUr, ISUb, and @NDSU
Quality wins: @MSU, SIU, and @SDSU
The Penguins schedule down the stretch is once again very difficult with both ISUr and NDSU on the road but their road win in Brookings was huge. They need to figure out how to win at least 2, possibly 3, of their last 4 as their OOC slate is once again unimpressive and won't help them come selection time if they're on the bubble.

Indiana St (5-3, 2-2)
Remaining games: MSU, SDSU, @YSU, and @WIU
Quality wins: @Ball St, Liberty, UNI, and @SIU
With their huge road win in Carbondale the Sycs' playoff hopes are looking stronger. With their strong non-conference resume I think they can drop another game and be in pretty easily but they'll likely be playing teams who are in desperation mode the next two weeks and a road trip to the Ice Castle to face the Penguin is still looming so they have plenty of work left to do.

South Dakota St (5-3, 2-2)
Remaining games: @NDSU, @ISUb, WIU, and USD
Quality wins: Cal Poly, MSU, and @UNI
A week after picking up a road win at UNI the Jacks gave the cushion they gained right back with their home loss to YSU. Despite having a non-D1 win I think they can still drop 1 more (especially if its a respectable loss on the road @NDSU) and still sneak in but they'll need a bit of help elsewhere at 8-4 with a non-D1 win. Of course if they win out they're in but their next two weeks are going to be tough to get through unscathed.


Must win out

Southern Illinois (5-4, 2-3)
Remaining games: @MSU, UNI, and @ISUr
Quality wins: None really although EIU and SEMO are debatable
There's no cupcakes left on this schedule for the Salukis and after dropping their last three they've made things very difficult on themselves. Anything less than winning out will almost certainly be too little to get them in but the good thing about their tough remaining schedule is it gives them an opportunity to prove they belong in the playoffs if they take all three.

Northern Iowa (4-4, 2-2)
Remaining games: ISUr, NDSU, @SIU, MSU
Quality wins: None
The playoffs have already started for the Panthers and they survived their first test @WIU. They need to win out and if they do may even get the autobid with both the top two teams in the conference coming to the UNI-Dome in the next two weeks. Anthing less will likely have them sitting on the outside of the bubble come playoff time with their lack of quality wins.

Missouri St (4-4, 1-3)
Remaining games: @ISUb, SIU, NDSU, @UNI
Quality wins: @Northwestern St and @UCA
Despite the popular belief the Bears' season isn't lost yet but it's close. They can still get in by winning out but that's a tall order based on the fact that 2 are tough ones on the road and another is top ranked NDSU at home. Their chances may be slim but it's not impossible, for whatever that's worth.


Eliminated

Western Illinois (3-6, 1-4)
South Dakota (2-6, 0-4)
Unfortunately for the Necks and the Yotes their only role the rest of the year is to play spoiler for the plethora of bubble teams that will be trying to stay alive in the MVFC.

Peas the SFU win over Sacred Heart will help YSU's SOS?

[Professor Chaos]

Peas the SFU win over Sacred Heart will help YSU's SOS?
Not especially in my opinion. Sacred Heart was a fringe top 25 team before losing to St Francis so now they're out of that conversation completely. It helps a little probably but nothing really to move the needle I don't think. YSU's schedule is going to hinder them again I think if they're stuck at 8-4 again come selection Sunday but with the good wins they'd have in conference this year I'd think the strength of the conference will help them out more than it did last year.

[DoubleE]

IN

NDSU
ISUr

in if they lose 1 game rest of year

YSU
ISUb

Have to win out

SDSU
UNI
SIU
MSU

Out

USD
WIU

[JMUNJ08]

Northern Iowa (4-4, 2-2)
Remaining games: ISUr, NDSU, @SIU, MSU
Quality wins: None
The playoffs have already started for the Panthers and they survived their first test @WIU. They need to win out and if they do may even get the autobid with both the top two teams in the conference coming to the UNI-Dome in the next two weeks. Anthing less will likely have them sitting on the outside of the bubble come playoff time with their lack of quality wins.

The reason why I'm surprised they are still so high up in the rankings...

Great job professor.

For the Valley to get 5 it looks like to me that the easiest way would be if SDSU knocks of NDSU this week. Otherwise, splitting the tough games 50/50 leaves you with max 4. Unless SIU surprises us all and wins out (that ISUr on the road is the biggest hurdle).

[FargoBison]

IN

NDSU
ISUr

in if they lose 1 game rest of year

YSU
ISUb

Have to win out

SDSU
UNI
SIU
MSU

Out

USD
WIU

I think SDSU could still drop a game. 8-4 with a non-D1 win....UNH made it last year at 7-4.

Their non-conference win against Cal Poly is looking better.

[KPSUL]

I think SDSU could still drop a game. 8-4 with a non-D1 win....UNH made it last year at 7-4.

Their non-conference win against Cal Poly is looking better.

Definitely. If SDSU only loses one more game it will mean the one additional loss is against NDSU or that they have beaten NDSU. Either way they will be in.

[JayJ79]

if UNI finished 3-1 in their last 4, they would have 3 "quality wins" (since you counted all of their remaining opponents as "quality wins" for other teams (except for NDSU, who hasn't lost to anyone yet). And they would be 7-3 against FCS competition. I don't see it as out of the realm of possibility for the Panthers to make the playoffs at 7-5, depending on how things ended up, but I certainly wouldn't hold my breath on it. If they were able to beat 3 of their remaining opponents, they'd certainly be a better team than some of the other teams that got at-large bids. But it is a fairly regular occurance for an MVFC team to be left out watching inferior teams getting bids.

Probably a moot point in any case. UNI lacks too many key components to have much of a chance to win even 3 of their last 4.

[Jason Svoboda]

I assume we'd be a lock with 8 wins but what are the odds Indiana State could get in at 7-5? We'd be 6-4 against FCS competition and 4-4 in conference play.

Defeated Tennessee Tech at home 49-14
Defeated Ball State on the road 27-20
Defeated #22 Liberty at home 39-18
Defeated #10 Northern Iowa at home 20-19
Defeated #20 Southern Illinois on the road 41-26


Lost to Indiana 28-10. I know they suck, but it still is a B10 team at their place.
Lost to #15 Illinois State at home 20-18 with our backup QB making his first college start. Perish had his bell rung in the 4Q against UNI and was out with a concussion. If our kickoff coverage wasn't so awful, we win that game.
Lost to #1 North Dakota State on the road 34-17. We got steam rolled... no other way to describe that game.


We have Missouri State and #18 South Dakota State in the next two weeks at home and then travel to #11 Youngstown State before finishing at Western Illinois. Don't know what kind of respect the Massey Rankings get, but they say we've played the #1 SOS and will finish the year with it as well. This is the first time in program history we've defeated three ranked teams in one season. Would it depend on who the wins/losses were to?

[Bisonator]

I assume we'd be a lock with 8 wins but what are the odds Indiana State could get in at 7-5? We'd be 6-4 against FCS competition and 4-4 in conference play.

Defeated Tennessee Tech at home 49-14
Defeated Ball State on the road 27-20
Defeated #22 Liberty at home 39-18
Defeated #10 Northern Iowa at home 20-19
Defeated #20 Southern Illinois on the road 41-26


Lost to Indiana 28-10. I know they suck, but it still is a B10 team at their place.
Lost to #15 Illinois State at home 20-18 with our backup QB making his first college start. Perish had his bell rung in the 4Q against UNI and was out with a concussion. If our kickoff coverage wasn't so awful, we win that game.
Lost to #1 North Dakota State on the road 34-17. We got steam rolled... no other way to describe that game.


We have Missouri State and #18 South Dakota State in the next two weeks at home and then travel to #11 Youngstown State before finishing at Western Illinois. Don't know what kind of respect the Massey Rankings get, but they say we've played the #1 SOS and will finish the year with it as well. This is the first time in program history we've defeated three ranked teams in one season. Would it depend on who the wins/losses were to?

We've seen what happens when you leave it up to the committee. Leave no doubt!

[BisonTru]

I assume we'd be a lock with 8 wins but what are the odds Indiana State could get in at 7-5? We'd be 6-4 against FCS competition and 4-4 in conference play.

Defeated Tennessee Tech at home 49-14
Defeated Ball State on the road 27-20
Defeated #22 Liberty at home 39-18
Defeated #10 Northern Iowa at home 20-19
Defeated #20 Southern Illinois on the road 41-26


Lost to Indiana 28-10. I know they suck, but it still is a B10 team at their place.
Lost to #15 Illinois State at home 20-18 with our backup QB making his first college start. Perish had his bell rung in the 4Q against UNI and was out with a concussion. If our kickoff coverage wasn't so awful, we win that game.
Lost to #1 North Dakota State on the road 34-17. We got steam rolled... no other way to describe that game.


We have Missouri State and #18 South Dakota State in the next two weeks at home and then travel to #11 Youngstown State before finishing at Western Illinois. Don't know what kind of respect the Massey Rankings get, but they say we've played the #1 SOS and will finish the year with it as well. This is the first time in program history we've defeated three ranked teams in one season. Would it depend on who the wins/losses were to?

The committee does not want to put a five loss team in the playoffs. I don't believe they won't, but they are going to try and find another team around the country they can justify placing in. If they can't find that 24th team to justify over a 7-5 team, you guys would have a very strong resume to be that team.

[Jason Svoboda]

We've seen what happens when you leave it up to the committee. Leave no doubt!
Yeah, understood. If we beat Missouri State and Western Illinois but lose to South Dakota State and Youngstown State that would mean all four losses would have come against ranked teams. Having done research on pretty much every Top 40 team outside our conference, I'd have serious issues at a majority of them going in over us even with 8 wins to our 7. I'm hoping our guys just play like it is single elimination from here on out and take all 4 to leave no doubt.

Hopefully we can also get some people to schedule us now. We've had trouble getting people to agree to home-home series. I know we were thankful when Tennessee Tech did last year and I think we were shocked when Liberty accepted.

[skinny_uncle]

Must win out

Southern Illinois (5-4, 2-3)
Remaining games: @MSU, UNI, and @ISUr
Quality wins: None really although EIU and SEMO are debatable
There's no cupcakes left on this schedule for the Salukis and after dropping their last three they've made things very difficult on themselves. Anything less than winning out will almost certainly be too little to get them in but the good thing about their tough remaining schedule is it gives them an opportunity to prove they belong in the playoffs if they take all three.

Northern Iowa (4-4, 2-2)
Remaining games: ISUr, NDSU, @SIU, MSU
Quality wins: None
The playoffs have already started for the Panthers and they survived their first test @WIU. They need to win out and if they do may even get the autobid with both the top two teams in the conference coming to the UNI-Dome in the next two weeks. Anthing less will likely have them sitting on the outside of the bubble come playoff time with their lack of quality wins.

Missouri St (4-4, 1-3)
Remaining games: @ISUb, SIU, NDSU, @UNI
Quality wins: @Northwestern St and @UCA
Despite the popular belief the Bears' season isn't lost yet but it's close. They can still get in by winning out but that's a tall order based on the fact that 2 are tough ones on the road and another is top ranked NDSU at home. Their chances may be slim but it's not impossible, for whatever that's worth.


Since these three teams all play each other yet this year, if the professor is correct, two will be automatically eliminated, regardless of what they do against anyone else.

[JayJ79]

Since these three teams all play each other yet this year, if the professor is correct, two will be automatically eliminated, regardless of what they do against anyone else.

possibly all 3, if they all went 1-1 against each other (for instance, the home team winning each time)

[semobison]

IMO UNI can afford one more loss. That would leave them 7-5, 5-3 in the Valley with 2 close FBS losses. Any MVFC team that goes 5-3 in conference play should be in!

[Trumpster]

IMO UNI can afford one more loss. That would leave them 7-5, 5-3 in the Valley with 2 close FBS losses. Any MVFC team that goes 5-3 in conference play should be in!

They will not be in with 5 loses.

[UNIFanSince1983]

IMO UNI can afford one more loss. That would leave them 7-5, 5-3 in the Valley with 2 close FBS losses. Any MVFC team that goes 5-3 in conference play should be in!

The question is does it help to have the loss be to Illinois St or NDSU or is it better for the loss to be to SIU or MSU? If the loss is to one of the first two it is a "good" loss. If it is to one of the second two it means we have beat both ISUr and NDSU that is two HUGE resume building wins!

Either way I am pretty sure we would need to win out to get in. I am still hoping we can win out, but I am doubtful.

[Bisonator]

IMO UNI can afford one more loss. That would leave them 7-5, 5-3 in the Valley with 2 close FBS losses. Any MVFC team that goes 5-3 in conference play should be in!

I disagree. Look at last year.

[semobison]

I disagree. Look at last year.

Last year we didn't go 23-1 in OOC play! My guess is the selection committee has taken notice, at least I hope so....Notice I said SHOULD BE IN.

[Bisonator]

Last year we didn't go 23-1 in OOC play! My guess is the selection committee has taken notice, at least I hope so....Notice I said SHOULD BE IN.

Don't hold your breath. They seem to have selective memories! xthumbsupx

[JayJ79]

I disagree. Look at last year.

last year people kept saying UNI was out b/c they lost 5 conference games. that wouldn't be the case this year if they won 3 of their last 4.
I suppose much of it depends on how the rest of the field ends up (both in the MVFC and out of it). And of course, UNI would actually have to win 3 games, else it becomes a moot point.

[Professor Chaos]

IMO UNI can afford one more loss. That would leave them 7-5, 5-3 in the Valley with 2 close FBS losses. Any MVFC team that goes 5-3 in conference play should be in!
That's very iffy. Assuming one of their last two losses are to NDSU or ISUr they'd only have one of those wins to hang their hats on. They literally have no good wins to this point and if they beat SIU and MSU they knock them out of playoff consideration thereby devaluing those wins at the same time.

Last year they finished 7-5 and had a better resume than they would this year with wins over a P5 Iowa St school, a throttling of #7 seeded McNeese St, and conference wins over 8-4 Youngstown St and 5-7 Missouri St (the Bears did finish 5-3 in conference and UNI ended their 4 game win streak, still kind of a "meh" win). This year in that 7-5 scenario they'd have a great win over NDSU or ISUr and a couple "meh" wins over SIU and MSU and that's it.



Last year we didn't go 23-1 in OOC play! My guess is the selection committee has taken notice, at least I hope so....Notice I said SHOULD BE IN.
I don't think the committee will and should look at the relative strength of a conference when determining the at large selections. Conference strength does help indirectly through strength of schedule. It gives a team more chances for quality wins and more leeway if they have "quality losses" but see my comments above, UNI won't have a lot to go on in the quality wins department.

[BisonBacker]

Last year we didn't go 23-1 in OOC play! My guess is the selection committee has taken notice, at least I hope so....Notice I said SHOULD BE IN.

You forget who we have for a conference commish...:(

[semobison]

That's very iffy. Assuming one of their last two losses are to NDSU or ISUr they'd only have one of those wins to hang their hats on. They literally have no good wins to this point and if they beat SIU and MSU they knock them out of playoff consideration thereby devaluing those wins at the same time (although it's not like they have a choice).

Last year they finished 7-5 and had a better resume than they would this year with wins over a P5 Iowa St school, a throttling of the #7 seeded McNeese St, and conference wins over 8-4 Youngstown St and Missouri St (the Bears did only finish 5-7 but UNI ended their 4 game win streak, still kind of a "meh" win). This year in that 7-5 scenario they'd have a great win over NDSU or ISUr and a couple "meh" wins over SIU and MSU and that's it.

Those "meh" wins look a lot better when you look how those "meh" teams did in OOC play. Do you guys remember 2010 when NDSU made the playoffs with a 4-4 Valley record. IMO if you have a winning record in conference play this year you deserve to be in and after this all shakes out it could still be only 3 teams. Unfortunately, I am not on the selection committee.

[Professor Chaos]

Those "meh" wins look a lot better when you look how those "meh" teams did in OOC play. Do you guys remember 2010 when NDSU made the playoffs with a 4-4 Valley record. IMO if you have a winning record in conference play this year you deserve to be in and after this all shakes out it could still be only 3 teams. Unfortunately, I am not on the selection committee.
We'll see, I agree that the MVFC is as strong as it's ever been but I think the committee (as they should) will look more closely at who those 5 conference wins are against. NDSU in 2010 was somewhat of an anomaly because they had a P5 win over Kansas that year and with 5 different teams finishing tied for 3rd in conference at 4-4 there was a better opportunity to differentiate yourself out of conference than in a normal year. If UNI would've beat Iowa this year but lost to say USD or WIU I'd actually put their chances of getting in at 7-5 (4-4) as better than they would be now at 7-5 (5-3) with only one quality win in conference and no good wins OOC.

[Trumpster]

No team with 5 loses will get in.

[FargoBison]

At 7-5 UNI's main problem(outside of the # of losses) is losses to ISUB and SDSU...both teams would be in competition for an at-large and the head to head would give them both an advantage if all have seven wins. ISUB also has an FBS win to bolster their resume.

UNI needs to win out.

[semobison]

We'll see, I agree that the MVFC is as strong as it's ever been but I think the committee (as they should) will look more closely at who those 5 conference wins are against. NDSU in 2010 was somewhat of an anomaly because they had a P5 win over Kansas that year and with 5 different teams finishing tied for 3rd in conference at 4-4 there was a better opportunity to differentiate yourself out of conference than in a normal year. If UNI would've beat Iowa this year but lost to say USD or WIU I'd actually put their chances of getting in at 7-5 (4-4) as better than they would be now at 7-5 (5-3) with only one quality win in conference and no good wins OOC.

I see what you are saying but IMO anyone besides USD in the Valley is a quality win. What if we have two 5-3 teams tied for 3rd and UNI is one of those? Or, UNI takes 3rd alone at 5-3? One of these two could very well happen.

[unigriff]

I see what you are saying but IMO anyone besides USD in the Valley is a quality win. What if we have two 5-3 teams tied for 3rd and UNI is one of those? Or, UNI takes 3rd alone at 5-3? One of these two could very well happen.

True. it all depends on which 7-5 team UNI lost to and beat. Is a win over NDSU and loss to ISUr better than a win over ISUr and loss to NDSU. How bad do we have to beat SIU and MSU in those cases to make a strong enough pitch? How close do our losses have to be?

So far our losses this year are 8 @ Iowa (FBS), 3 @Hawaii (FBS), 1 @ ISUb, 3 SDSU. It's not like we are getting blown out (knock on wood for these next 2 games).

[FargoBison]

My MVFC playoff take....

NDSU- Agreed on lock status
ISUR- Win on Saturday and they are a lock
YSU- Need two more wins, should get one vs USD this week but then it is @ISUR, ISUB and @NDSU
ISUB- Need three more wins
SDSU- Need three more wins, if they can beat NDSU or ISUB on the road they will be sitting ok with WIU and USD left at home
SIU- Need to win their final three games
UNI- Need to win out, like I said before UNI has losses to fellow bubble teams so 7-5 will not cut it.
MSU- Need to win their final four games and with @ISUB, SIU, NDSU and @UNI left good luck with that Bears.

[unigriff]

I'll make it easy for you. a 7-5 UNI will get in over a 8-4 SDSU...why? SOS. SDSU 3 wins vs. Big Sky bottom dwellers non quality wins and a non counter. Only quality win currently is UNI. If they beat ISU, I'd give them 2. Mizzou game wasn't really close. Got drubbed by ISUr. (which could be the turning point if UNI beats them or NDSU). ISUb isn't winning 3. YSU is in even if they lose their last 3. They'll beat ISUb though. SIU isn't getting in period. 0 quality wins. They'd have to win out to just get 3 quality wins. After what i saw the last couple weeks, they are in trouble. MVFC is getting 4 in. It really will come down to SDSU and UNI. Both have to win this weekend or it's basically all but over for both.

NDSU in with #1 seed
ISUr in with #3 seed (#2 pending on this weekend, a loss pushes em back)
YSU in maybe #7 seed

SDSU (8) 7-4 won head to head, 2 quality wins
UNI 7-5 stronger SOS, 2 quality wins, 2 FBS games. 7-3 vs FCS

It's really easy. If UNI loses this weekend, we will have given up all hope and NDSU will beat us by 31. Not even exaggerating. A win Saturday, the Dome will be pumping for the Bizon.

[Professor Chaos]

I'll make it easy for you. a 7-5 UNI will get in over a 8-4 SDSU...why? SOS. SDSU 3 wins vs. Big Sky bottom dwellers non quality wins and a non counter. Only quality win currently is UNI. If they beat ISU, I'd give them 2. Mizzou game wasn't really close. Got drubbed by ISUr. (which could be the turning point if UNI beats them or NDSU). ISUb isn't winning 3. YSU is in even if they lose their last 3. They'll beat ISUb though. SIU isn't getting in period. 0 quality wins. They'd have to win out to just get 3 quality wins. After what i saw the last couple weeks, they are in trouble. MVFC is getting 4 in. It really will come down to SDSU and UNI. Both have to win this weekend or it's basically all but over for both.

NDSU in with #1 seed
ISUr in with #3 seed (#2 pending on this weekend, a loss pushes em back)
YSU in maybe #7 seed

SDSU (8) 7-4 won head to head, 2 quality wins
UNI 7-5 stronger SOS, 2 quality wins, 2 FBS games. 7-3 vs FCS

It's really easy. If UNI loses this weekend, we will have given up all hope and NDSU will beat us by 31. Not even exaggerating. A win Saturday, the Dome will be pumping for the Bizon.
Two big points of disagreement I have:
1) Cal Poly is not a Big Sky bottom dweller, they are a legit playoff and Big Sky championship contender right now. That win is better than anything UNI did in the non-conference.
2) You're contradicting yourself by saying that SDSU's head-to-head win at UNI won't be a factor but UNI beating an ISUr team that throttled SDSU would. Head-to-head >>> transitive property.

[Trumpster]

I'll make it easy for you. a 7-5 UNI will get in over a 8-4 SDSU...why?


I'll make it easy for you. No 5 loss team will get in...why? Last year a member of the committee specifically said that 5 loses was more important than 7 wins.

[FargoBison]

I'll make it easy for you. a 7-5 UNI will get in over a 8-4 SDSU...why? SOS. SDSU 3 wins vs. Big Sky bottom dwellers non quality wins and a non counter. Only quality win currently is UNI. If they beat ISU, I'd give them 2. Mizzou game wasn't really close. Got drubbed by ISUr. (which could be the turning point if UNI beats them or NDSU). ISUb isn't winning 3. YSU is in even if they lose their last 3. They'll beat ISUb though. SIU isn't getting in period. 0 quality wins. They'd have to win out to just get 3 quality wins. After what i saw the last couple weeks, they are in trouble. MVFC is getting 4 in. It really will come down to SDSU and UNI. Both have to win this weekend or it's basically all but over for both.

NDSU in with #1 seed
ISUr in with #3 seed (#2 pending on this weekend, a loss pushes em back)
YSU in maybe #7 seed

SDSU (8) 7-4 won head to head, 2 quality wins
UNI 7-5 stronger SOS, 2 quality wins, 2 FBS games. 7-3 vs FCS

It's really easy. If UNI loses this weekend, we will have given up all hope and NDSU will beat us by 31. Not even exaggerating. A win Saturday, the Dome will be pumping for the Bizon.

No offense but when a 8-4 SDSU vs a 7-5 UNI comes up for discussion by the committee the head to head will be brought up and that will be the end of it. Beating a team, especially on the road is about as big of a trump card as you can have.

SDSU also dismantled Cal Poly, who is looking like a pretty good team right now.

I think for UNI to get in at 7-5 you need a very weak bubble, ISUB to go into the tank and YSU to also lose three games. You need MVFC cannibalization.

[Sycamore62]

No offense but when a 8-4 SDSU vs a 7-5 UNI comes up for discussion by the committee the head to head will be brought up and that will be the end of it. Beating a team, especially on the road is about as big of a trump card as you can have.

SDSU also dismantled Cal Poly, who is looking like a pretty good team right now.

I think for UNI to get in at 7-5 you need a very weak bubble, ISUB to go into the tank and YSU to also lose three games. You need MVFC cannibalization.

I am wondering how they perceive the fashion you end the season. If UNI goes 7-5 do they look better than a 7-5 ISUb team who loses 3/4 with a head to head win.
I think if ISUb goes in the tank that means YSU is probably winning vs them but nobody else if they get the 3 wins.
At this point, almost zero things could happen that would stun me aside from NDSU losing out.

EDIT: I'm also sticking with my 5 conference wins for ISUb. they have MSU, SDSU, @YSU, @WIU left in that order

[Professor Chaos]

I am wondering how they perceive the fashion you end the season. If UNI goes 7-5 do they look better than a 7-5 ISUb team who loses 3/4 with a head to head win.
I think if ISUb goes in the tank that means YSU is probably winning vs them but nobody else if they get the 3 wins.
At this point, almost zero things could happen that would stun me aside from NDSU losing out.

EDIT: I'm also sticking with my 5 conference wins for ISUb. they have MSU, SDSU, @YSU, @WIU left in that order
I'd have to imagine that's why YSU was left out last year at 8-4 (5-3) since they lost their last 3 to end the season.

[unigriff]

I'll make it easy for you. No 5 loss team will get in...why? Last year a member of the committee specifically said that 5 loses was more important than 7 wins.

12 game schedule could change things.

[unigriff]

Two big points of disagreement I have:
1) Cal Poly is not a Big Sky bottom dweller, they are a legit playoff and Big Sky championship contender right now. That win is better than anything UNI did in the non-conference.
2) You're contradicting yourself by saying that SDSU's head-to-head win at UNI won't be a factor but UNI beating an ISUr team that throttled SDSU would. Head-to-head >>> transitive property.

True. minor overlook on Cal Poly, though they won't even be top 3 in the eh big sky.

#22 UNI over #5 ISUr > ISUr throttling SDSU > SDSU barely beating #19 UNI Also late season winning is more valuable than mid season head to head. Seen it time and time again.

[unigriff]

if i was on the committe and such things panned out, and i was not biased towards UNI, thats how I would vote.

[Trumpster]

12 game schedule could change things.

You mean unlike... last... year... Oh wait, that was a 12 game schedule year as well wasn't it?



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[thebootfitter]

You mean unlike... last... year... Oh wait, that was a 12 game schedule year as well wasn't it?



Sent from my SM-G900V
Umm... I don't think it was, was it?

[rokamortis]

Umm... I don't think it was, was it?

Yes

[UNIFanSince1983]

Umm... I don't think it was, was it?

I know we played 12 games last year... 7-5 was our record.

[Sycamore62]

1-11 is easier to add

[Gordon Shumway]

1-11 is easier to add

:D Where's that rep button?

[Bison56]

1-11 is easier to add

xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

Week 10 saw one team (Missouri St) eliminated from contention and another team (SDSU) put on the brink. Still there are seven MVFC teams alive for the playoffs with only 3 weeks to go. I was kind of torn about whether to still include MSU as a "quality win" but my conference homerism got the better of me (along with the fact that they've been very competitive with the upper echelon teams in the MVFC) so I kept them in that category at least until they get one more loss. Here's my breakdown after week 10:


Locks

North Dakota St (9-0, 5-0)
Remaining games: @UNI, @MSU, YSU
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Montana, SIU, ISUb, and SDSU.
The Bison are locked into the field but their sights are set on securing a top 2 seed which I think they can still get that even if they drop a game.


Should be in

Illinois St (7-1, 4-1)
Remaining games: YSU, @USD, and SIU
Quality wins: SDSU, @ISUb, and MSU
Losing at UNI is nothing to hang your head about and the Redbirds are still in good shape. One win in their last 3 should lock them in. As of now, I think they're still in line for a seed and a 1st round bye but if they drop another game they could very well be playing the Saturday after Thanksgiving.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (7-2, 4-1)
Remaining games: @ISUr, ISUb, and @NDSU
Quality wins: @MSU, SIU, and @SDSU
I'm tempted to put the Penguins into the "Should be in" category but their schedule down the stretch is scary with both ISUr and NDSU on the road and given how last season ended they can't take anything for granted. They need to figure out how to win 1 to be in the playoff discussion or 2 to leave no doubt as their OOC slate is once again unimpressive and won't help them come selection time if they're on the bubble. They've got the 3 top teams in the MVFC (other than themselves) left so they've got a chance to play themselves into pretty high seed if they can go on a run.

Indiana St (6-3, 3-2)
Remaining games: SDSU, @YSU, and @WIU
Quality wins: @Ball St, Liberty, UNI, @SIU, and MSU
The Sycs' did what they needed to do to maintain their playoff position with their come from behind win against MSU. With their strong non-conference resume I think they can drop another game in their last three and be in pretty easily but they'll be playing an SDSU team in must-win mode next week and a road trip to the Ice Castle to face the Penguin is still looming.


Must win out

South Dakota St (5-4, 2-3)
Remaining games: @ISUb, WIU, and USD
Quality wins: Cal Poly, MSU, and @UNI
The Jacks' playoff hopes are on life support after dropping their last two. They need to win out in order to sneak in but with a non-D1 win on their resume they'll probably need a bit of help from other bubble teams around the country. SDSU should be big fans of Cal Poly because that win keeps looking better and ISUb next week will give them a big opportunity to get back on track with the conference's two worst teams as their final 2 opponents.

Southern Illinois (5-4, 2-3)
Remaining games: @MSU, UNI, and @ISUr
Quality wins: None really although EIU and SEMO are debatable
There's no cupcakes left on this schedule for the Salukis and after dropping their last three they've made things very difficult on themselves. Anything less than winning out will almost certainly be too little to get them in but the good thing about their tough remaining schedule is it gives them an opportunity to make a good case for themselves as a playoff team. They also have a non-D1 win which may hurt them if they do manage to stay on the bubble until selection Sunday.

Northern Iowa (5-4, 3-2)
Remaining games: NDSU, @SIU, MSU
Quality wins: ISUr
The Panthers once again kept their playoff hopes alive but this time in impressive fashion against Illinois St in by far their best win of the season to this point. They still need to win out starting with top ranked NDSU coming to the UNI-Dome next week and there is still a road trip to Carbndale to face SIU on their schedule. Anthing less will likely have them sitting on the outside of the bubble come playoff time with their lack of quality wins.


Eliminated

Missouri St (4-5, 1-4)
Western Illinois (3-6, 1-4)
South Dakota (2-7, 0-5)
MSU joins this group but they, like the Necks and the Yotes, have multiple teams on their schedule still in the playoff converstaion so all three of these teams still have meaningful games to play.

[clenz]

Griff, just stop


7-5 is out period end of story barring the weakest bubble in history.

Your rationalizations age just bad because you are contradicting your own points as you make them

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[skinny_uncle]

Griff, just stop


7-5 is out period end of story barring the weakest bubble in history.

Your rationalizations age just bad because you are contradicting your own points as you make them

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7-5 would mean 5-3 in Valley play. I think that might keep them in the conversation.

[UNIFanSince1983]

7-5 would mean 5-3 in Valley play. I think that might keep them in the conversation.

Yeah and if the loss is to SIU or MSU that means wins against both ISUr and NDSU.

Wait we would have to beat NDSU, OR have to go to win in Carbondale OR do both? Yeah scratch that we will finish with 6 losses this year.

[skinny_uncle]

Yeah and if the loss is to SIU or MSU that means wins against both ISUr and NDSU.

Wait we would have to beat NDSU, OR have to go to win in Carbondale OR do both? Yeah scratch that we will finish with 6 losses this year.

I just meant there was a mathematical possibility, not that it was a realistic scenario.

[achrist70]

If UNI has to win out you might as well just eliminate, it is impossible for UNI to win at Carbondale, you could have a 10-0 UNI team win 15 future NFL players, versus an 0-10 SIU team starting all 3rd stringers and SIU would still find a way to win in Carbondale.

[Professor Chaos]

Week 11, amazinginly, saw all seven MVFC teams alive for the playoffs keep their hopes alive. I took MSU off the "quality win" category and made some rearrangements elsewhere when it comes to out of conference games. With just two weeks to go there's still 7 teams with their destinies in their own hands IMO and there's still a scenario where they all could be playoff candidates come Selection Sunday. Here's my breakdown after week 10:


Locks

North Dakota St (9-1, 5-1)
Remaining games: @MSU and YSU
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Montana, SIU, ISUb, and SDSU.
The Bison are locked into the field but their spot in the top 2 seeds is in jeopardy after their loss at UNI. I still think they're likely the top seed if they win out.

Illinois St (8-1, 5-1)
Remaining games: @USD and SIU
Quality wins: SDSU, @ISUb, and YSU
The Redbirds are locked into the field after ther big home win against YSU. I think they're in line for a top 4 seed and could still be seeded even if they drop another game although they'd be leaving it up to the committee on whether they'd get a bye or not in that case.


Work left to do

Youngstown St (7-3, 4-2)
Remaining games: ISUb and @NDSU
Quality wins: SIU and @SDSU
The Penguins could've likely locked up their playoff spot with a win against ISUr but with the loss they're still firmly on the bubble. Their schedule down the stretch is scary with a home date against ISUb who needs a win to stay alive and a season finale at NDSU. They need to win 1 to be in the playoff discussion or both to leave no doubt as their OOC slate is once again unimpressive and won't help them come selection time if they're on the bubble.

Northern Iowa (6-4, 4-2)
Remaining games: @SIU and MSU
Quality wins: ISUr and NDSU
No team in the country has two wins that can match up with the quality of the Panthers' last two wins. However, I still think they need to win out to guarantee a spot and they have to go to Carbondale next week in a place where they haven't had a lot of success historically. Needless to say if there ever was a 7-5 team that could make it in it would lkely be this team as they could end up being the only loss on the schedule for 2 of the top 4 seeds. Secretly, I'm sure the selection committee is rooting for UNI to win out and make it easy on them because if they split their last two this could be the most polarizing bubble debate in years.


Must win out

South Dakota St (6-4, 3-3)
Remaining games: WIU and USD
Quality wins: Cal Poly, @UNI, and @ISUb
The Jacks' playoff hopes got a big lift after their win in Terre Haute. Regardless of their non-D1 win they have the quality wins to have a very strong resume if they win out and they have the two of the bottom three teams in the conference coming to Brookings the next two weeks. Given how the rest of the conference has shook out I think they control their own destiny and are in if they win out.

Indiana St (6-4, 3-3)
Remaining games: @YSU and @WIU
Quality wins: @Ball St, Liberty, UNI, and @SIU
The Sycs left themselves with no margin for error after their home loss to SDSU. With their strong non-conference resume I think they're in easy if they win out but they have to go to YSU next week in a game that the Penguins will need themselves in order to secure their own playoff spot so that's anything but a given and their season finaly in Macomb won't be a gimme either.

Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3)
Remaining games: UNI and @ISUr
Quality wins: None really although EIU and @MSU are borderline
The Salukis continue to hang on by a thread as their best wins are looking weaker and weaker. Anything less than winning out will certainly be too little to get them in with their non-D1 win but the good thing is their last two games give them a chance for some signature wins. If they win out they may need a bit of help to get in but that'll be a tall order in itself given how UNI is playing recently and how ISUr has played all year.


Eliminated

Western Illinois (4-6, 2-4)
Missouri St (4-6, 1-5)
South Dakota (2-8, 0-6)
They're all eliminated but each of these squads has teams on their schedule still in the playoff conversation so all three of them have meaningful games to play.

[mmiller_34]

I just don't know. There are 6 Big Sky teams, 6 CAA teams, and 7 MVFC teams still in the mix.

[clenz]

I just don't know. There are 6 Big Sky teams, 6 CAA teams, and 7 MVFC teams still in the mix.
Well, that should be the field, but it won't be

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[Sycamore62]

I think we have NDSU and ISUr (short of a collapse) locked in

I think SDSU and UNI have to win out. It wouldn't stun me if neither did but it would cause me to raise an eyebrow.

i think the winner of ISUb@YSU makes it HOWEVER, I would also not be stunned if ISUb won and then **** the bed at WIU. I'm assuming chalk with YSU@NDSU (but you never know)

SIU is a bit of a wild card, if they win out they bump UNI out and would have 2 quality wins finishing at ISUr

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

IMO, NDSU and ISUr are locks....

I also think SDSU wins their final two games and earns a bid. After those three, YSU, ISUb, UNI and SIU will take care of themselves. If I were to guess, UNI wins out, everyone else goes 1-1 and the MVFC gets 4, NDSU, ISUr, SDSU and UNI....

[Bisonwinagn]

IMO, NDSU and ISUr are locks....

I also think SDSU wins their final two games and earns a bid. After those three, YSU, ISUb, UNI and SIU will take care of themselves. If I were to guess, UNI wins out, everyone else goes 1-1 and the MVFC gets 4, NDSU, ISUr, SDSU and UNI....

Agreed this seems most likely at this point.

[stevdock]

I personally believe anyone who gets to 8 wins in the valley should get in the playoffs.

NDSU and ISU-r are already there.
YSU goes 1-1 (beat ISU-B and knocks them out)
UNI and SDSU go 2-0 and get there.
Although ISU-B goes 2-0 and they are in. There tough one is YSU
And SIU has to go 2-0 which would knock out UNI probably and they'd have to beat ISU-R.

[JayJ79]

If UNI can win their last two, and if both ISUr and NDSU lose once more each, that would give UNI the autobid xthumbsupx
(not that I'm holding my breath for that scenario, but still)

or maybe that isn't the case. UNI would be the only team without a loss to any of the other tied teams [ISUr, NDSU, UNI, possibly YSU], but since they didn't all play each other, i'm not sure how the tiebreak would go amongst all common opponents)

[PantherRob82]

I think that's right. Isn't first tiebreaker head to head?

UNI would be 2-0, YSU 1-1(if they beat NDSU), NDSU and ISUr would also be 1-1.

[clenz]

I think that's right. Isn't first tiebreaker head to head?

UNI would be 2-0, YSU 1-1(if they beat NDSU), NDSU and ISUr would also be 1-1.
Head to head
Gpu

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[PantherRob82]

I don't see it happening. ISUr would have to lose to SIU, UNI has to win out, and NDSU has to lose to YSU. I guess crazier things have happened.

[JayJ79]

I think that's right. Isn't first tiebreaker head to head?

UNI would be 2-0, YSU 1-1(if they beat NDSU), NDSU and ISUr would also be 1-1.

first tiebreak is head-to-head, but they have some other clauses for if 3 or more teams are tied and they didn't all play each other, which involves their record against conference opponents common to all the tied teams. I could probably figure it out if that scenario actually played out, but we all agree that it is highly unlikely (and there are too many variables to factor with 2 weeks left)

[skinny_uncle]

http://www.valley-football.org/news/default-print/2011-12/6071/missouri-valley-football---tiebreaker/

[semobison]

IMO, NDSU and ISUr are locks....

I also think SDSU wins their final two games and earns a bid. After those three, YSU, ISUb, UNI and SIU will take care of themselves. If I were to guess, UNI wins out, everyone else goes 1-1 and the MVFC gets 4, NDSU, ISUr, SDSU and UNI....

I can see this happening but if it does your leaving out 8-4 YSU? Guins will be pissed....again!

[clenz]

I can see this happening but if it does your leaving out 8-4 YSU? Guins will be pissed....again!
The weak ooc might bite them again.

At some point they'll learn to schedule all nec/pfl games... Right?

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[semobison]

The weak ooc might bite them again.

At some point they'll learn to schedule all nec/pfl games... Right?

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Yeah, two cupcakes OOC. So, does their close game with Illinois do anything for them. As a fan, I look at it and say, hey their pretty good, they played a BIG tough. Doubt that the committee thinks the same way though.

[clenz]

Yeah, two cupcakes OOC. So, does their close game with Illinois do anything for them. As a fan, I look at it and say, hey their pretty good, they played a BIG tough. Doubt that the committee thinks the same way though.
The committee ignores fbs games unless it's a big win.

They basically, coming from uni ad dannen, look only at fcs games.

That will hurt ysu unless the knock ndsu off.

I would hurt the hell out of uni, but they've now beat 2 top 5-8 ranked and undefeated teams to make up for it

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[ValleyTalk]

I can see this happening but if it does your leaving out 8-4 YSU? Guins will be pissed....again!

How can he have SDSU in at 8-4 with a D3 win during the regular season over a YSU team which would finish 8-4 and would have beaten SDSU on the road in the regular season????

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

How can he have SDSU in at 8-4 with a D3 win during the regular season over a YSU team which would finish 8-4 and would have beaten SDSU on the road in the regular season????

Because one team overcame key injuries and stepped up down the stretch by winning their final three. While the other stumbling to the finish losing 2 out of their final 3 games against fellow playoff tams....

[ValleyTalk]

Because one team overcame key injuries and stepped up down the stretch by winning their final three. While the other stumbling to the finish losing 2 out of their final 3 games against fellow playoff tams....
YSU OWNS the tiebreaker over SDSU! I don't disagree that SDSU would be deserving, but if it came down to the two for the final spot, YSU would own the tiebreaker between the two. Furthermore, YSU beat them in Brookings.

[FargoBison]

SDSU is a much better team with Sumner, that is definitely a reality.

I won't say YSU is in or out at the 8-4. A lot would depend on the bubble.

That said an 8-4 ISUB team would be a stone cold lock, due to their non-conference success. YSU definitely has the weakest resume right now.

[FargoBison]

YSU OWNS the tiebreaker over SDSU! I don't disagree that SDSU would be deserving, but if it came down to the two for the final spot, YSU would own the tiebreaker between the two. Furthermore, YSU beat them in Brookings.

But then SDSU beat UNI in Ceder Falls. It would be a mess to figure out with those three at 8-4.

[Cocky]

At this point in the year, I take UNI over YSU.
Vs FCS UNI is 6-2 and YSU 7-2
UNI best wins NDSU and ISUr worst loss Hawaii
YSU best wins SDSU and SIU worst loss WIU. YSU has St Fran, Butler and Duquesne wihich give little value.

[ValleyTalk]

But then SDSU beat UNI in Ceder Falls. It would be a mess to figure out.
Would definitely be a mess considering YSU and UNI do not play this year. I guess you would have to look at it in other ways. If YSU goes 8-4 with a win next week, they would have beaten SDSU and INSU, two teams that beat UNI. However, UNI would have beaten NDSU and ILSU, two teams that beat YSU.

[Professor Chaos]

If UNI can win their last two, and if both ISUr and NDSU lose once more each, that would give UNI the autobid xthumbsupx
(not that I'm holding my breath for that scenario, but still)

or maybe that isn't the case. UNI would be the only team without a loss to any of the other tied teams [ISUr, NDSU, UNI, possibly YSU], but since they didn't all play each other, i'm not sure how the tiebreak would go amongst all common opponents)


I don't see it happening. ISUr would have to lose to SIU, UNI has to win out, and NDSU has to lose to YSU. I guess crazier things have happened.
If the Panthers win out it's a moot point. There's no way they'd be left out with that type of run to end the season even if they didn't have the autobid.

[clenz]

If the Panthers win out it's a moot point. There's no way they'd be left out with that type of run to end the season even if they didn't have the autobid.
5 straight to end the year including two top 10/undefeated wins. No way they're left out

Agreed

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[PantherRob82]

If the Panthers win out it's a moot point. There's no way they'd be left out with that type of run to end the season even if they didn't have the autobid.

Agreed. Not sure why the YSU/SDSU stuff comes into.play at that point. 5 straight including 2 wins most teams can't claim on their resume.

[Professor Chaos]

How can he have SDSU in at 8-4 with a D3 win during the regular season over a YSU team which would finish 8-4 and would have beaten SDSU on the road in the regular season????
You bring up a great point. They would both be 5-3 in conference and 8-4 overall but SDSU would have a non-D1 win. They both would have wins over Indiana St (presuming YSU beats ISUb and loses to NDSU). SDSU would have good wins over Cal Poly and @UNI but SDSU would have good wins @SDSU and SIU. It would be a tough call but I'd have to agree that YSU probably gets the benefit of the doubt due to the head to head win. Chances are both would be in with those resumes but it seems like YSU could likely punch their ticket this weekend with a win over ISUb.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

The committee has shown over the years that head-2-head doesn't mean that much and it's the body of work that matters. UNH vs Towson in 2012 and UNH vs Lehigh year come to mind. The Towson-UNH game really stands out....

[Sycamore62]

You bring up a great point. They would both be 5-3 in conference and 8-4 overall but SDSU would have a non-D1 win. They both would have wins over Indiana St (presuming YSU beats ISUb and loses to NDSU). SDSU would have good wins over Cal Poly and @UNI but SDSU would have good wins @SDSU and SIU. It would be a tough call but I'd have to agree that YSU probably gets the benefit of the doubt due to the head to head win. Chances are both would be in with those resumes but it seems like YSU could likely punch their ticket this weekend with a win over ISUb.

I think using ISUb for YSU ends up being a double edge sword. Beating them kind of makes it less of a win. IF ISUb would have won yesterday I wouldn't think that.

[ValleyTalk]

Will be an interesting one in Carbondale on Saturday. At least according to the records I found, Northern Iowa has not won in Carbondale since 1996.

[SIUSalukiFan]

How can he have SDSU in at 8-4 with a D3 win during the regular season over a YSU team which would finish 8-4 and would have beaten SDSU on the road in the regular season????

I posted about this same scenario involving SIU and UNI in the MVFC thread.

If SIU were to somehow win its last two games (which would include a win over UNI) to finish 8-4, 5-3 how could the selection committee pick UNI, which would be 7-5, 5-3) over the Salukis?

I'm not sure how head-to-head matchups carry such little weight.

[ValleyTalk]

I posted about this same scenario involving SIU and UNI in the MVFC thread.

If SIU were to somehow win its last two games (which would include a win over UNI) to finish 8-4, 5-3 how could the selection committee pick UNI, which would be 7-5, 5-3) over the Salukis?

I'm not sure how head-to-head matchups carry such little weight.
I would think an 8-4 record would beat out a 7-5 record for UNI. Will history repeat itself Saturday in Carbondale?

[PantherRob82]

I would think an 8-4 record would beat out a 7-5 record for UNI. Will history repeat itself Saturday in Carbondale?

I wouldn't think UNI would get in at 7-5, especially with so many teams potentially making it to 8-4 in the MVFC. That said, UNI would definitely have the best 7-5 resume out there. If only we had picked off Hawaii like we should have......

[Gil Dobie]

I wouldn't think UNI would get in at 7-5, especially with so many teams potentially making it to 8-4 in the MVFC. That said, UNI would definitely have the best 7-5 resume out there. If only we had picked off Hawaii like we should have......

That's a 7-3 FCS record.

[PantherRob82]

That's a 7-3 FCS record.

Yes it is.....um. Yes. :)

[Houndawg]

I would think an 8-4 record would beat out a 7-5 record for UNI. Will history repeat itself Saturday in Carbondale?

SIU hasn't beaten anybody all year, if we win this week against UNI it will be a big time upset. Right now they are much the better team on paper.

[skinny_uncle]

Will be an interesting one in Carbondale on Saturday. At least according to the records I found, Northern Iowa has not won in Carbondale since 1996.

From 1997 to 2008, the home team won every game in the series. The Salukis had a similar streak at one time where they couldn't win in Cedar Falls (1987-2009).

[underdawg]

SIU hasn't beaten anybody all year, if we win this week against UNI it will be a big time upset. Right now they are much the better team on paper.


Fortunately, as someone always says (me this time!), this one will be played in Carbondale not "on paper". But my despair about the box SIU has put themselves in is that if we (in a miracle) beat both UNI and ISU red we won't be picked anyway---stuff like EIU beating Jacksonville for the OVC Auto and then the Committee choosing JSU as an At-Large, etc, etc and worse, SIU being the ones that give NDSU an un-shared MVFC Crown--ha, ha just kidding Bison fans, we'd gladly do that to beat our arch enemies in Normal, Il.

[Sycamore62]

Fortunately, as someone always says (me this time!), this one will be played in Carbondale not "on paper". But my despair about the box SIU has put themselves in is that if we (in a miracle) beat both UNI and ISU red we won't be picked anyway---stuff like EIU beating Jacksonville for the OVC Auto and then the Committee choosing JSU as an At-Large, etc, etc and worse, SIU being the ones that give NDSU an un-shared MVFC Crown--ha, ha just kidding Bison fans, we'd gladly do that to beat our arch enemies in Normal, Il.

Well, if I were an optimistic SIU fan, I'd say UNI is due for a letdown after 2 huge wins and they are on the road against a team also with their back to the wall.

Is the RB you guys had still out?

[Professor Chaos]

Week 12 saw SIU eliminated but of the 6 teams still alive going into the final week of the regular season only 2 are locks so there's plenty left to be decided. Every single conference game in Week 13 has playoff implications which is pretty remarkable in itself. I think there's a strong possibility that we see 5 playoff teams out of the MVFC and possibly even 6 if YSU can pull the upset in Fargo. Here's my breakdown:


Locks

North Dakota St (10-1, 6-1)
Remaining game: YSU
Quality wins: @Iowa St, Montana, SIU, ISUb, and SDSU.
If the Bison beat YSU I think they're the #1 seed but the Penguins will be figthing for their playoff lives. If the Bison lose I think they're still in the #4-#5 seed range.

Illinois St (9-1, 6-1)
Remaining game: SIU
Quality wins: SDSU, @ISUb, and YSU
The Redbirds are locked into the field and sitting in the #4-#6 seed range right now I beleive but if they lose their last game to SIU they may be on the bubble to get a seed. UNI did them a favor knocking SIU out of contention but this last game still isn't a gimme for the Redbirds.


Work left to do

Northern Iowa (7-4, 5-2)
Remaining game: MSU
Quality wins: ISUr, NDSU, and @SIU
The Panthers are winners of their last 4 and looking very good to not only make the playoffs but potentially get a seed if things elsewhere fall right for them on the last week and they take care of business at home against MSU. However, if they somehow drop this last game they'll have a serious sweat on Selection Sunday. I think the bubble weakend significantly this weekend which helps them out should they lose but honestly they should roll a MSU team next week who's out of contention with a lame duck coaching staff. If they do lose, their playoff resume is going to be the biggest debate of the 2014 playoffs I think.


Must win out

South Dakota St (7-4, 4-3)
Remaining game: USD
Quality wins: Cal Poly, @UNI, and @ISUb
I think the Jacks' are still in good position for the playoffs if they can beat a USD team that's winless in conference next week. Regardless of their non-D1 win they have the quality wins to have a very strong resume. They should be big Bison fans next weekend as knocking out a YSU team that has the head-to-head win against the Jacks will strengthen SDSU's playoff position especially with their own head-to-head wins against fellow bubble compadres UNI and ISUb.

Indiana St (7-4, 4-3)
Remaining game: @WIU
Quality wins: @Ball St, Liberty, UNI, @SIU, @YSU
The Sycs really strengthened their playoff hopes picking up a huge road win at Youngstown leaving them with only a winnable road game at WIU left to punch their ticket. With their strong non-conference resume and plethora of quality wins they're a lock if they beat WIU but they'll likely be playing the Saturday after Thanksgiving even if they can pull it out this weekend.

Youngstown St (7-4, 4-3)
Remaining game: @NDSU
Quality wins: SIU and @SDSU
We've seen this story before as YSU stumbles down the stretch yet again. They now have left themselves in a must win scenario at NDSU which is not an admirable position. That said it's pretty simple, win and they give themselves a signature win that'll lock them into the field or lose and they'll once again be wondering what might have been without their late season swoon.


Eliminated

Southern Illinois (6-5, 3-4)
Western Illinois (4-7, 2-5)
Missouri St (4-7, 1-6)
South Dakota (2-9, 0-7)
Although all these squads are eliminated from playoff contention each one of them plays a team this last week with playoff hopes/positioning on the line.

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Nice work PC!!

xthumbsupx

[RabidRabbit]

Yes, good work PC! I will pick on seeding tho. IMHO, based on your list, ISU-B should be close to a seed. Lot of quality wins there. Their 3 conference losses were @NDSU, ISU-R, and SDSU. Two other seeds, and another play-off team. An FBS win, probably the 2nd best FBS win this season by a FCS squad, + Liberty (although Chuck So L may reduce that benefit.

Seeds should end up being
1. NDSU
2 Coastal (if undefeated)
3. Jacksonville (undefeated OVC champ)
4. UNH
5. EWU
6. IL St (just one loss)

7&8 will be tossed up among UNI, Fordham, IN St, Nova.

So as to not weight the MVFC too heavily, I would venture that Fordham and Nova get picked. Yes, UNI beat NDSU & IL St. but the Panthers had no good OOC wins. Their good wins are others in MVFC.

[Bison56]

Good work PC you are awesome.

[JSUBison]

So what happens if the unthinkable happens? I'd actually kind of like to see this scenario, just for the laughs. xlolx

NDSU 7-1 11-1
ISU-R 6-2 9-2
UNI 5-3 7-5
YSU 4-4 7-5
ISU-B 4-4 7-5
SDSU 4-4 7-5
SIU 4-4 7-5
WIU 3-5 5-7
MSU 2-6 5-7
USD 1-7 3-9

[BisonTru]

7&8 will be tossed up among UNI, Fordham, IN St, Nova.

MVFC.

IMO, Nova gets a seven seed or higher. Only one FCS loss and two points away from being undefeated.


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[dwtime]

Yes, good work PC! I will pick on seeding tho. IMHO, based on your list, ISU-B should be close to a seed. Lot of quality wins there. Their 3 conference losses were @NDSU, ISU-R, and SDSU. Two other seeds, and another play-off team. An FBS win, probably the 2nd best FBS win this season by a FCS squad, + Liberty (although Chuck So L may reduce that benefit.

Seeds should end up being
1. NDSU
2 Coastal (if undefeated)
3. Jacksonville (undefeated OVC champ)
4. UNH
5. EWU
6. IL St (just one loss)

7&8 will be tossed up among UNI, Fordham, IN St, Nova.

So as to not weight the MVFC too heavily, I would venture that Fordham and Nova get picked. Yes, UNI beat NDSU & IL St. but the Panthers had no good OOC wins. Their good wins are others in MVFC.

Why would you have Jacksonville ahead of UNH? If both win out next week both will be conference champs but UNH will have 10 D1 wins and Jacksonville will have 9.

[Professor Chaos]

So what happens if the unthinkable happens? I'd actually kind of like to see this scenario, just for the laughs. xlolx

NDSU 7-1 11-1
ISU-R 6-2 9-2
UNI 5-3 7-5
YSU 4-4 7-5
ISU-B 4-4 7-5
SDSU 4-4 7-5
SIU 4-4 7-5
WIU 3-5 5-7
MSU 2-6 5-7
USD 1-7 3-9
Many heads would explode and NDSU, ISUr, and UNI would get in.

[clenz]

Many heads would explode and NDSU, ISUr, and UNI would get in.
I think isub would get in as well.


Imagine the **** storm that could happen should uni get the auto...

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[Professor Chaos]

I think isub would get in as well.


Imagine the **** storm that could happen should uni get the auto...

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That's probably a more likely scenario of the two. I'd predict that there would be a lot of pissed off Panther fans because I have a feeling both NDSU and UNI would both be seeded but NDSU would be seeded higher.

[clenz]

That's probably a more likely scenario of the two. I'd predict that there would be a lot of pissed off Panther fans because I have a feeling both NDSU and UNI would both be seeded but NDSU would be seeded higher.
That would be some ****.

Head to head curb stomping and the auto bid

Though uni got seeded over siu in 08 when siu won the auto

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[skinny_uncle]

That would be some ****.

Head to head curb stomping and the auto bid

Though uni got seeded over siu in 08 when siu won the auto

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You just had to bring that up, didn't you?

[CappinHard]

Let's assume YSU loses, SDSU and ISUb win. (Seemingly a safe assumption)

Is there any way that the committee only takes 4 from the MVFC? If so, who goes between SDSU and ISUb? Why? I would think SDSU would have the nod with the head to head win and finishing 4th in the MVFC.

I hope they do the right thing and take 5.

[Bison56]

Let's assume YSU loses, SDSU and ISUb win. (Seemingly a safe assumption)

Is there any way that the committee only takes 4 from the MVFC? If so, who goes between SDSU and ISUb? Why? I would think SDSU would have the nod with the head to head win and finishing 4th in the MVFC.

I hope they do the right thing and take 5.

You can hope in one hand and.....well you know the rest.

[FargoBison]

I'm going to post a piece of my bracket....With the CP game still going nothing is final but it will give you an idea...


Autobids(11): EWU, CCU, UNH, NC A&T, NDSU, Sacred Heart, Jacksonville State, Fordham, San Diego, Chattanooga and SHSU
At Large(13): ISUR, Nova, UNI, SELA, SDSU, JMU, Indiana State, EKU, Montana State, Cal Poly, Richmond, Montana, Bethune-Cookman

Bubble: William and Mary, SFA, YSU, NAU, Bryant, Bucknell

William and Mary and Richmond play, so they are really an either in or out situation. Only one is getting in.

YSU loses their bubble is burst

That leaves SDSU, Bethune-Cookman, ISUB, Montana, Montana State, SFA, NAU, Bryant and Bucknell fighting for five spots.

SDSU and ISUB look rock solid compared to that mess to me.

[Professor Chaos]

Let's assume YSU loses, SDSU and ISUb win. (Seemingly a safe assumption)

Is there any way that the committee only takes 4 from the MVFC? If so, who goes between SDSU and ISUb? Why? I would think SDSU would have the nod with the head to head win and finishing 4th in the MVFC.

I hope they do the right thing and take 5.
With the quality wins they have ISUb is a lock if they win next week. This actually helps SDSU since they have a head-to-head win against ISUb but if the committee could only take one of the two I think they take ISUb rather than SDSU simply because ISUb has more quality wins despite the head-to-head favoring SDSU.

[Bisonwinagn]

With the quality wins they have ISUb is a lock if they win next week. This actually helps SDSU since they have a head-to-head win against ISUb but if the committee could only take one of the two I think they take ISUb rather than SDSU simply because ISUb has more quality wins despite the head-to-head favoring SDSU.

Both those teams are absolute locks if they win next week.

[Sycamore62]

I'd guess if sdsu had their QB all year we wouldn't be talking about them as a bubble

on the other hand if we only lost 2 QB's instead of 3 last year we wouldn't have had a WR playing QB vs SIU