Unlikely Conference Champion Scenarios

[TypicalTribe]

Just trying to get some discussions started today. Here's a list of surprising conference champion possibilities. Which of these is potentially most likely/least likely:

Stony Brook - Currently 4-4 and 3-1 in CAA. Runs the table starting with a win over UNH, gets to 7-1 and wins tiebreaker for CAA title
Eastern Illinois - runs the table and wins the OVC tiebreaker at 7-5 overall
Cal Poly - Beats Montana State and Montana and wins the Big Sky while EWU struggles without Adams
Liberty - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 9-3
Monmouth - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 10-1
Bucknell/Colgate - Run the table in the Patriot and steal the title from Fordham

Any of these scenarios would throw the committee for a loop. Which one is possible?

[tomq04]

ISU is more likely to win out than anyone else in the big sky, but if EWU only drops 1 to say Montana, we could have upwards of a 4 way tie.

[Sader87]

Not sure which is most likely or most unlikely, but in the PL the margin for error is so small in that there are only 6 league games. Lose a head-to-head and it's very hard to "jump" that team that beat you. Lafayette last year for example won the league outright beating Fordham head to head and finishing 5-7;5-1.

FU has to play @Bucknell on a Friday night in a couple weeks....same thing could play out but I'm not so sure BU can go 5-1 in the PL either.

Colgate is at Fordham and I think their path to a PL title is a little more difficult.

[rokamortis]

Just trying to get some discussions started today. Here's a list of surprising conference champion possibilities. Which of these is potentially most likely/least likely:

Stony Brook - Currently 4-4 and 3-1 in CAA. Runs the table starting with a win over UNH, gets to 7-1 and wins tiebreaker for CAA title
Eastern Illinois - runs the table and wins the OVC tiebreaker at 7-5 overall
Cal Poly - Beats Montana State and Montana and wins the Big Sky while EWU struggles without Adams
Liberty - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 9-3
Monmouth - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 10-1
Bucknell/Colgate - Run the table in the Patriot and steal the title from Fordham

Any of these scenarios would throw the committee for a loop. Which one is possible?

Although I don't want to admit it, the Liberty (or really any other BSC team) scenario is a real possibility. With a six team conference, one loss can be killer and usually results in multiple teams tied. Coastal, on paper, should win out but CSU and Liberty tend to play us tough and we have no clue how good / bad Monmouth is.

[MTfan4life]

I'm going to say Monmouth running the table is the least likely. With their best win being over Wagner, they've been boosted by a pretty cozy schedule. To run the table, they'd have to win on the road at Presby, Coastal, and Liberty. Highly unlikely.

Most likely, Eastern Illinois has a shot, but with their game @Jacksonville State, I can't put them here. I'd say Bucknell. They get Fordham and Colgate at home. They've already beaten all-world Lehigh. Would Fordham get in with that loss? They'd have to beat hapless Army to have a chance.

[melloware13]

With Stony Brook, they would need Nova to lose at least one to get the Auto. As of now, the only CAA teams that can win the conference by winning out are Villanova, New Hampshire, and Delaware (Hens end with UNH and Nova).

[JSUBison]

ISU is more likely to win out than anyone else in the big sky, but if EWU only drops 1 to say Montana, we could have upwards of a 4 way tie.

Idaho State is improved, and it's good to see. But do you think they can win 3 road games this year to make the playoffs? They've only lost 48 road games in a row. I find that mark of futility in some ways more impressive than winning 31 in a row. Sure that ISU road streak has to end, but I don't think they are quite there yet playoff-wise, maybe next year. We shall see I guess.

[KPSUL]

Although I don't want to admit it, the Liberty (or really any other BSC team) scenario is a real possibility. With a six team conference, one loss can be killer and usually results in multiple teams tied. Coastal, on paper, should win out but CSU and Liberty tend to play us tough and we have no clue how good / bad Monmouth is.

I agree that the Liberty scenario may be most likely only because half of the Big South is just starting conference play and we don't have much read on the relative strength of its teams. However, I think the Coastal - Liberty game is in Conway, making it less likely. The Monmouth scenario will end at PC this Sat. before it even gets rolling.

Stony Brook has the softest CAA schedule this season without NOVA, Richmond or Delaware. However, beating UNH in Durham is not very likely.

[FargoBison]

Just trying to get some discussions started today. Here's a list of surprising conference champion possibilities. Which of these is potentially most likely/least likely:

Stony Brook - Currently 4-4 and 3-1 in CAA. Runs the table starting with a win over UNH, gets to 7-1 and wins tiebreaker for CAA title
Eastern Illinois - runs the table and wins the OVC tiebreaker at 7-5 overall
Cal Poly - Beats Montana State and Montana and wins the Big Sky while EWU struggles without Adams
Liberty - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 9-3
Monmouth - Runs the table and wins the Big South at 10-1
Bucknell/Colgate - Run the table in the Patriot and steal the title from Fordham

Any of these scenarios would throw the committee for a loop. Which one is possible?

Liberty and the Patriot League scenario are the only one I can see happening.

SBU doesn't have the offense to make that kind of run. Cal Poly and Monmouth aren't good enough. As for EIU I don't see them winning at Jax State like another poster said.

[Sycamore62]

I could see EIU winning out. Is that less likely than EKU dropping 2? I don't know how they decide a 3-way tie

[darell1976]

Idaho State is improved, and it's good to see. But do you think they can win 3 road games this year to make the playoffs? They've only lost 48 road games in a row. I find that mark of futility in some ways more impressive than winning 31 in a row. Sure that ISU road streak has to end, but I don't think they are quite there yet playoff-wise, maybe next year. We shall see I guess.

Don't forget 2 of ISU's wins were against non-DI opponents. So that may play a factor in securing a playoff berth.

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ISU is more likely to win out than anyone else in the big sky, but if EWU only drops 1 to say Montana, we could have upwards of a 4 way tie.

UND has one big gun standing in their way of an 8-4 record and that is your team. With our team improving every week, we could pull a huge upset.

[UNH Fanboi]

- Lehigh runs the table
- Bucknell loses twice, giving Lehigh the AQ
- TheFan returns to AGS
- Lehigh gets #2 seed for winning toughest conference in FCS
- Lehigh wins through the semis
- Following their 63-0 win over Villanova in the semis, Lehigh's QB tweets a racial slur and is suspended by the NCAA
- With the heart of their offense gone, Lehigh loses to NDSU 3-0 in the finals
- TheFan leaves AGS for the second time never to be seen again

[Silenoz]

Cal Poly - Beats Montana State and Montana and wins the Big Sky while EWU struggles without Adams

I wouldn't put that past any of the parties involved

[Gordon Shumway]

The only chance chance Stony Brook has to win the CAA is to win out, and have 'Nova lose two games. They don't play each other, and there won't be any tiebreaker that works until they get down to Sagarin. There is no way that Stony Brook catches a 10-2 'Nova on Sagarin. The odd tiebreaker scenario in the CAA this year is why I keep wondering why all the prognostications are ceding the AQ to 'Nova. A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday, but if 'Nova & UNH run the table, the only applicable tiebreaker will be Sagarin, which UNH currently leads in.

[taper]

We're still early enough in the season that any team that wins out against tough conference foes deserves to get in. Would also mean that some of those "tough" conference foes won't.

[UNH Fanboi]

The only chance chance Stony Brook has to win the CAA is to win out, and have 'Nova lose two games. They don't play each other, and there won't be any tiebreaker that works until they get down to Sagarin. There is no way that Stony Brook catches a 10-2 'Nova on Sagarin. The odd tiebreaker scenario in the CAA this year is why I keep wondering why all the prognostications are ceding the AQ to 'Nova. A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday, but if 'Nova & UNH run the table, the only applicable tiebreaker will be Sagarin, which UNH currently leads in.

I doubt people are thinking about the tiebreaker--they just see Nova as a little bit better and slot them as the AQ. Ultimately, it doesn't really matter. The committee can seed an AL over an AQ, and has done so in the past.

[eaglesdare]

North Carolina Central runs the table and gets help by a Morgan State Conference loss. Wins MEAC at 8-4 and Bethune gets in as an at large. MVC calls in drone strike. Its possible if we can tighten up the red zone offense.

[ngineer]

- Lehigh runs the table
- Bucknell loses twice, giving Lehigh the AQ
- TheFan returns to AGS
- Lehigh gets #2 seed for winning toughest conference in FCS
- Lehigh wins through the semis
- Following their 63-0 win over Villanova in the semis, Lehigh's QB tweets a racial slur and is suspended by the NCAA
- With the heart of their offense gone, Lehigh loses to NDSU 3-0 in the finals
- TheFan leaves AGS for the second time never to be seen again

I'll drink to that, and have what you're having! (;-)

[HailSzczur]

The only chance chance Stony Brook has to win the CAA is to win out, and have 'Nova lose two games. They don't play each other, and there won't be any tiebreaker that works until they get down to Sagarin. There is no way that Stony Brook catches a 10-2 'Nova on Sagarin. The odd tiebreaker scenario in the CAA this year is why I keep wondering why all the prognostications are ceding the AQ to 'Nova. A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday, but if 'Nova & UNH run the table, the only applicable tiebreaker will be Sagarin, which UNH currently leads in.

Would Sagarin be the tie breaker between UNH/Nova having not played? I remember there being about 14 different scenarios in 2012 when it was what, Nova, Towson, UNH, SBU for the AQ and a good portion involved the Sagarin rating

[MTfan4life]

- Lehigh runs the table
- Bucknell loses twice, giving Lehigh the AQ
- TheFan returns to AGS
- Lehigh gets #2 seed for winning toughest conference in FCS
- Lehigh wins through the semis
- Following their 63-0 win over Villanova in the semis, Lehigh's QB tweets a racial slur and is suspended by the NCAA
- With the heart of their offense gone, Lehigh loses to NDSU 3-0 in the finals


Pretty sure one of these has already happened.

[SpiderJPO]

I think some of you CAA fans are forgetting about Richmond. We have only lost to UVA and in the last 20 seconds to UNH. We have some injuries but will be ready when Villanova comes to town next weekend.

[BEAR]

SLC fans are hoping the conference leaders don't drop 4 in a row and Nicholls and HBU don't win 4 in a row...talk about unlikely conference championship scenario. xlolx

[Gordon Shumway]

Would Sagarin be the tie breaker between UNH/Nova having not played? I remember there being about 14 different scenarios in 2012 when it was what, Nova, Towson, UNH, SBU for the AQ and a good portion involved the Sagarin rating

All those potential scenarios in 2012 is why the CAA got the NCAA to approve the use of Sagarin as a last resort for the AQ just a few weeks before the end of that season. Prior to 2012 the tiebreaker of last resort was a coin flip. If 'Nova & UNH both somehow run the table, Sagarin would be the only tiebreaker that would separate them. As mentioned it won't mean a lot, but the selection committee might not want to step on the CAA's toes by seeding the AQ lower than the at-large for teams with identical overall records. Just a thought. Of course, they both have to win out, and I doubt that will happen.

[darell1976]

How about this one for the BSC title

Final Standings:

UND 6-2 (win out)
EWU 6-2 (loss to NAU, UND)
MSU 6-2 (loss to CP, UM)
UM 6-2 (loss to CP, EWU)
CP 6-2 (loss to ISU, UCD)
NAU 6-2 (loss to UND)
ISU 6-2 (loss to MSU)

Everyone else 3+ losses

Not that it would happen but mathematically its possible.

[Walkon79]

How about this one for the BSC title

Final Standings:

UND 6-2 (win out)
EWU 6-2 (loss to NAU, UND)
MSU 6-2 (loss to CP, UM)
UM 6-2 (loss to CP, EWU)
CP 6-2 (loss to ISU, UCD)
NAU 6-2 (loss to UND)
ISU 6-2 (loss to MSU)

Everyone else 3+ losses

Not that it would happen but mathematically its possible.

Wow!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

[MTfan4life]

How about this one for the BSC title

Final Standings:

UND 6-2 (win out)
EWU 6-2 (loss to NAU, UND)
MSU 6-2 (loss to CP, UM)
UM 6-2 (loss to CP, EWU)
CP 6-2 (loss to ISU, UCD)
NAU 6-2 (loss to UND)
ISU 6-2 (loss to MSU)

Everyone else 3+ losses

Not that it would happen but mathematically its possible.

Northern Arizona would get the auto-bid in that scenario. Eastern Washington would be a definite at-large. The rest would be in an 8-4 lottery with the rest of the 4 loss squads across the country.

[PAllen]

- Lehigh runs the table
- Bucknell loses twice, giving Lehigh the AQ
- TheFan returns to AGS
- Lehigh gets #2 seed for winning toughest conference in FCS
- Lehigh wins through the semis
- Following their 63-0 win over Villanova in the semis, Lehigh's QB tweets a racial slur and is suspended by the NCAA
- With the heart of their offense gone, Lehigh loses to NDSU 3-0 in the finals
- TheFan leaves AGS for the second time never to be seen again

I like it!!! xthumbsupx

What's the old saying about anything's possible before the game starts? :)