Selection Sunday Hypothetical

[TypicalTribe]

So, let's just say that by the time November 23rd rolls around the following things have happened:

EWU, Montana and MSU have playoff resumes and noone else has less than 5+ losses
UNH, Villanova and Richmond are in and all others have 5+ losses
NDSU, Illinois State and SDSU are in and all others have 5+ losses
JSU and EKU are in and """""
SELA and another Southland team are in and """""
Fordham wins the Patriot
Someone wins the Pioneer
Chatty wins the SoCon
Bethune wins the MEAC
Sacred Heart wins the NEC
Coastal wins the Big South

Let's be honest, this is not a far-fetched scenario at this point. In fact, it has a decent likelihood. Incredibly, it would leave 5 open at-large spots. The likely choices:

8-4 Liberty
9-2 Bryant
9-2 Bucknell
10-2 NC A&T
8-3 Monmouth

As you can see, could be another year of slim picking for the committee for the last couple of spots. 5 loss teams might have some hope this year if things break right.

[MR. CHICKEN]

19904..................RUH ROH.....VALLEY BOYZ............xpopcornx.....BRAWK!

[Thumper 76]

19904..................RUH ROH.....VALLEY BOYZ............xpopcornx.....BRAWK!

You rang?

[BisonFan02]

19904..................RUH ROH.....VALLEY BOYZ............xpopcornx.....BRAWK!

Nothing surprising....the "likely choices" would all get rick rolled in the MVFC and Liberty lost to Indiana St. 38-19.....

[Professor Chaos]

19904..................RUH ROH.....VALLEY BOYZ............xpopcornx.....BRAWK!

Well as long as we're doing hypotheticals:


NDSU (7-0) wins at USD and at UNI but loses vs SDSU, at MSU, and vs YSU = 9-3
ISUr (6-0) wins at UNI and at USD but loses vs MSU, vs YSU, and vs SIU = 8-3
SDSU (5-2) wins vs YSU, at NDSU, vs WIU, and vs USD but loses at ISUb = 9-3 (with a non-D1 win)
YSU (5-2) wins vs USD, at ISUr, and at NDSU but loses at SDSU, and vs ISUb = 8-4
SIU (5-3) wins vs ISUb, vs UNI, and at ISUr but loses at MSU = 8-4
ISUb (4-3) wins vs MSU, vs SDSU, at YSU, and at WIU but loses at SIU = 8-4
MSU (4-3) wins at ISUr, vs SIU, vs NDSU, and at UNI but loses at ISUb = 8-4

7 playoffs teams out of the MVFC?

[tomq04]

I think Idaho State will get in, and Montana may or may not be #4.

[Sycamore62]

So, let's just say that by the time November 23rd rolls around the following things have happened:

EWU, Montana and MSU have playoff resumes and noone else has less than 5+ losses
UNH, Villanova and Richmond are in and all others have 5+ losses
NDSU, Illinois State and SDSU are in and all others have 5+ losses
JSU and EKU are in and """""
SELA and another Southland team are in and """""
Fordham wins the Patriot
Someone wins the Pioneer
Chatty wins the SoCon
Bethune wins the MEAC
Sacred Heart wins the NEC
Coastal wins the Big South

Let's be honest, this is not a far-fetched scenario at this point. In fact, it has a decent likelihood. Incredibly, it would leave 5 open at-large spots. The likely choices:

8-4 Liberty
9-2 Bryant
9-2 Bucknell
10-2 NC A&T
8-3 Monmouth

As you can see, could be another year of slim picking for the committee for the last couple of spots. 5 loss teams might have some hope this year if things break right.

Would 8-4 Liberty beat out 7-5 ISUb with a loss to them?

[rokamortis]

Would 8-4 Liberty beat out 7-5 ISUb with a loss to them?

Probably need to look at the sub-DI games. Liberty has a DII win so would only have 7 DI wins. Do the trees have any sub DIs? If not, they may get the nod over Liberty.

Monmouth would have a better case than Liberty I think.

[WileECoyote06]

Would 8-4 Liberty beat out 7-5 ISUb with a loss to them?

An 8-4 Liberty team also finishes the season 5 - 1. A 7 - 5 ISUb team would have to defeat three of their remaining five opponents: Southern Illinois, Missouri State, SDSU, Youngstown St, or Western Illinois. The losses would likely eliminate one of those other contenders.

[RabidRabbit]

Well as long as we're doing hypotheticals:


NDSU (7-0) wins at USD and at UNI but loses vs SDSU, at MSU, and vs YSU = 9-3
ISUr (6-0) wins at UNI and at USD but loses vs MSU, vs YSU, and vs SIU = 8-3
SDSU (5-2) wins vs YSU, at NDSU, vs WIU, and vs USD but loses at ISUb = 9-3 (with a non-D1 win)
YSU (5-2) wins vs USD, at ISUr, and at NDSU but loses at SDSU, and vs ISUb = 8-4
SIU (5-3) wins vs ISUb, vs UNI, and at ISUr but loses at MSU = 8-4
ISUb (4-3) wins vs MSU, vs SDSU, at YSU, and at WIU but loses at SIU = 8-4
MSU (4-3) wins at ISUr, vs SIU, vs NDSU, and at UNI but loses at ISUb = 8-4

7 playoffs teams out of the MVFC?

This SDSU Fan REALLY LIKES THIS!!!

SDSU would be the auto-bid winner @ 6-2 (alone)

The other 6 would be tied at 5-3, one game back. Hard pressed to keep any of the 5-3 teams home given the OOC success of the league, and every one would have won games against other top 10 teams. Be interesting how the seeds would work out in that scenerio.

[blackbeard]

Well as long as we're doing hypotheticals:


NDSU (7-0) wins at USD and at UNI but loses vs SDSU, at MSU, and vs YSU = 9-3
ISUr (6-0) wins at UNI and at USD but loses vs MSU, vs YSU, and vs SIU = 8-3
SDSU (5-2) wins vs YSU, at NDSU, vs WIU, and vs USD but loses at ISUb = 9-3 (with a non-D1 win)
YSU (5-2) wins vs USD, at ISUr, and at NDSU but loses at SDSU, and vs ISUb = 8-4
SIU (5-3) wins vs ISUb, vs UNI, and at ISUr but loses at MSU = 8-4
ISUb (4-3) wins vs MSU, vs SDSU, at YSU, and at WIU but loses at SIU = 8-4
MSU (4-3) wins at ISUr, vs SIU, vs NDSU, and at UNI but loses at ISUb = 8-4

7 playoffs teams out of the MVFC?

Why is anyone doing a hypothetical with 3 NDSU losses? It's not happening, maybe once if they have a bad week and someone slips up on them, but I wouldn't bet on it. Think they win out.

[FargoBison]

In this scenario a 7-5 MVFC team would get in as long as that team had 7 DI wins.

Indiana State would be a prime candidate with a win over Liberty and an FBS win.

[Trumpster]

Would 8-4 Liberty beat out 7-5 ISUb with a loss to them?

I seem to recall something about not having 4 losses was more important than 7 wins. Or at least that was murmured when SHSU got in a 8-3 (7-3 vs. Div.1)

[FargoBison]

Why is anyone doing a hypothetical with 3 NDSU losses? It's not happening, maybe once if they have a bad week and someone slips up on them, but I wouldn't bet on it. Think they win out.

Yep, wouldn't be shocked if NDSU dropped a game but three is not happening. No way NDSU loses two games at home, just no way.

Nobody has come close to NDSU at home this year.

[TypicalTribe]

In this scenario a 7-5 MVFC team would get in as long as that team had 7 DI wins.

Indiana State would be a prime candidate with a win over Liberty and an FBS win.

I had a long talk with Jeff Bourne during a playoff game last year and he was quite clear that the committee really doesn't want to take 5 loss teams.

[FargoBison]

I had a long talk with Jeff Bourne during a playoff game last year and he was quite clear that the committee really doesn't want to take 5 loss teams.

I don't think they want to either, but that scenario you created is the perfect storm.

[gotts]

Why is anyone doing a hypothetical with 3 NDSU losses? It's not happening, maybe once if they have a bad week and someone slips up on them, but I wouldn't bet on it. Think they win out.

I know I didn't go to a fancy expensive school, but I do know what the word "hypothetical" means! :D

[WileECoyote06]

I had a long talk with Jeff Bourne during a playoff game last year and he was quite clear that the committee really doesn't want to take 5 loss teams.

This is good to know.

[Professor Chaos]

Why is anyone doing a hypothetical with 3 NDSU losses? It's not happening, maybe once if they have a bad week and someone slips up on them, but I wouldn't bet on it. Think they win out.
That's pretty much my point. Just trying to return a bit of MVFC trollage to our pal Mr. Chicken ;)

[Engineer86]

In this scenario a 7-5 MVFC team would get in as long as that team had 7 DI wins.

Indiana State would be a prime candidate with a win over Liberty and an FBS win.

Not so fast my friend, based on their strong playoff history, the MEAC would likely get any 5 loss bid

[Sycamore62]

I know I didn't go to a fancy expensive school, but I do know what the word "hypothetical" means! :D

DUH, everyone knows that.

I almost got that in '95 at Illinois State. It was cold as ****.

[blackbeard]

I know I didn't go to a fancy expensive school, but I do know what the word "hypothetical" means! :D

Me too.....it means no efffin way NDSU loses 3 games

[Bisonwinagn]

I find it interesting that having elite teams at the top of a conference can basically eliminate everyone else from that conference getting an at large bid. MVFC and CAA could both be 2 bid leagues if the top 2 teams run the table. These conferences could have top 10-15 talent but end up with 5 loses and get left out.

[centennial]

I find it interesting that having elite teams at the top of a conference can basically eliminate everyone else from that conference getting an at large bid. MVFC and CAA could both be 2 bid leagues if the top 2 teams run the table. These conferences could have top 10-15 talent but end up with 5 loses and get left out.
SC state is licking their chops. South Dakota would make them look bad but watch them getting an at large.

[SIUSalukiFan]

I had a long talk with Jeff Bourne during a playoff game last year and he was quite clear that the committee really doesn't want to take 5 loss teams.

Maybe they should have thought of that before they expanded to a 24-team field.

[ST_Lawson]

In this scenario a 7-5 MVFC team would get in as long as that team had 7 DI wins.

Indiana State would be a prime candidate with a win over Liberty and an FBS win.

https://i.imgur.com/Gj882at.png

[hktribefan]

I find it interesting that having elite teams at the top of a conference can basically eliminate everyone else from that conference getting an at large bid. MVFC and CAA could both be 2 bid leagues if the top 2 teams run the table. These conferences could have top 10-15 talent but end up with 5 loses and get left out.

If Nova and UNH run the table, WM can still win out and be 9-3 with the only losses to Virginia Tech, UNH, and Nova. I think that gets us into the playoffs.

[bostonspider]

Similarly if UNH and Nova run the table, UR could also finish at 9-3 with losses to UVA, UNH and Nova. Would be interesting if the Spiders and Tribe are both 8-3 going into that final game. Would both likely make the playoffs, is it an early "playoff" game??

[TypicalTribe]

Similarly if UNH and Nova run the table, UR could also finish at 9-3 with losses to UVA, UNH and Nova. Would be interesting if the Spiders and Tribe are both 8-3 going into that final game. Would both likely make the playoffs, is it an early "playoff" game??

I feel like the Tribe would need that game more than Richmond. An 8-4 W&M team would not have much to hang their hat on, while the Spiders would at least have an OOC win over Liberty. As usual, though, it will depend on the relative strength of the buble teams, which could be pretty weak again this year.

[MTfan4life]

Similarly if UNH and Nova run the table, UR could also finish at 9-3 with losses to UVA, UNH and Nova. Would be interesting if the Spiders and Tribe are both 8-3 going into that final game. Would both likely make the playoffs, is it an early "playoff" game??

I think it'd be more of a win and you're in, lose and you're sitting on the bubble. A lot of people think it's all about the amount of wins, however, with 12 games on the schedule, 8 wins don't look as good when you have 4 losses as well.

[bostonspider]

I think it'd be more of a win and you're in, lose and you're sitting on the bubble. A lot of people think it's all about the amount of wins, however, with 12 games on the schedule, 8 wins don't look as good when you have 4 losses as well.

Agreed in general, though losses to UVA and VaTech almost should be disregarded. And UNH and Nova would likely be seeded in the top 4. So the only other loss would be to the other school..

[bluehenbillk]

I had a long talk with Jeff Bourne during a playoff game last year and he was quite clear that the committee really doesn't want to take 5 loss teams.

This. 5 losses does not equal an at-large berth. You're closer to a .500 season than a good season.

Cue Jim Mora.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7fjDS0jKiE

[knucklehead]

This is a great fun read discussion, but with so much football left to play I still find myself in the wait and see category.

[WileECoyote06]

SC state is licking their chops. South Dakota would make them look bad but watch them getting an at large.

It's highly doubtful that SC State gets an at-large. In last year's at-large bid season, the were MEAC Co-Champions and never lost by more than 11 to an FCS program. This year they've already lost to FCS teams by 27 points (CCU) and 13 points (NCCU). If they defeat Bethune and tie for the championship they'll have wins over Morgan, Bethune, and A&T and will be awarded the autobid; provided NCCU doesn't run the table. And that's highly unlikely.

Okay now that's out the way. . xlolx

[Professor Chaos]

I still don't think number of D1 wins or number of losses should automatically exclude teams from playoff consideration. There's been debate before about whether we should refer to polls as being playoff predictors because the criteria is somehow different. I don't agree with that at all, I think after you exclude the 11 automatic qualifiers it should simply be a consensus of who are the best 13 teams in the country that should make up the at large pool (which is exactly what a poll is). If the consensus is 7-5 SIU is #13 in that group but 10-2 Sacred Heart is #14 then SIU should be the team that gets that last spot.

[Thumper 76]

I still don't think number of D1 wins or number of losses should automatically exclude teams from playoff consideration. There's been debate before about whether we should refer to polls as being playoff predictors because the criteria is somehow different. I don't agree with that at all, I think after you exclude the 11 automatic qualifiers it should simply be a consensus of who are the best 13 teams in the country that should make up the at large pool (which is exactly what a poll is). If the consensus is 7-5 SIU is #13 in that group but 10-2 Sacred Heart is #14 then SIU should be the team that gets that last spot.

But that wouldn't give the bracket a fun nation wide feel ;)

[kalm]

I still don't think number of D1 wins or number of losses should automatically exclude teams from playoff consideration. There's been debate before about whether we should refer to polls as being playoff predictors because the criteria is somehow different. I don't agree with that at all, I think after you exclude the 11 automatic qualifiers it should simply be a consensus of who are the best 13 teams in the country that should make up the at large pool (which is exactly what a poll is). If the consensus is 7-5 SIU is #13 in that group but 10-2 Sacred Heart is #14 then SIU should be the team that gets that last spot.

Bingo. Their job is to take all the info and ouch the best teams.

[KPSUL]

So, let's just say that by the time November 23rd rolls around the following things have happened:

EWU, Montana and MSU have playoff resumes and noone else has less than 5+ losses
UNH, Villanova and Richmond are in and all others have 5+ losses
NDSU, Illinois State and SDSU are in and all others have 5+ losses
JSU and EKU are in and """""
SELA and another Southland team are in and """""
Fordham wins the Patriot
Someone wins the Pioneer
Chatty wins the SoCon
Bethune wins the MEAC
Sacred Heart wins the NEC
Coastal wins the Big South

Let's be honest, this is not a far-fetched scenario at this point. In fact, it has a decent likelihood. Incredibly, it would leave 5 open at-large spots. The likely choices:

8-4 Liberty
9-2 Bryant
9-2 Bucknell
10-2 NC A&T
8-3 Monmouth

As you can see, could be another year of slim picking for the committee for the last couple of spots. 5 loss teams might have some hope this year if things break right.

I don't see any scenario where Big South gets more than 2 teams in or NEC more than just the Conf. Champ. If that happens with the MVFC getting only 3 teams in, every thread for the next three weeks will conclude with 200 consecutive MVFC fan posts no matter what the original topic. Let's hope they get at least 4 and even better, 5 teams in the playoffs.

[birdsflyhigh]

Said this a few weeks ago, and now that we're going to be halfway through the Valley season, I'll mention again that there are going to be some REALLY tough and very worthy playoff caliber teams from the MVFC that end up at 7-5. On the field I would take a 7-5 MVFC team over a 8, 9 or 10 FCS team that's racked up their wins over the little sisters of the poor. In fact, I think those 7-5 Valley teams would probably curb stomp those pretender teams.

The MVFC deserves at least 5 teams in the playoffs. Hopefully the selection committee WILL get it right this year and pick the BEST teams for the playoffs and not go with the regionalization BS.

[Sycamore62]

I would say they will contract the playoffs to 10 teams, have 2 play in games and it will only be the MVFC teams playing