Hypothetical look at the last 2 spots (7-4 or weak schedule)

[Cincy App]

For argument sake, let's say that we have the following situation after the games on 11/18:

AQ's - UMass, Lehigh, ASU, Hampton, Youngstown St, UT-Martin, Montana, and McNeese St

1st 6 at large teams agreed upon by the Playoff Selection Committee - JMU, UNH, Furman, Illinois St, S Illinois, and Cal Poly

Choices and records of teams being considered for the last 2 spots:
Delaware St 9-2
Charleston Southern 11-0
San Diego 10-0
Holy Cross 8-3
Monmouth 10-1
Eastern Illinois 8-4
Portland St 7-4

Assume that all other teams from AQ conferences have at least 4 losses.

Who do you think the Playoff Selection Committee would select for the last 2 spots?

Who would you select for the last 2 spots?

[AppGuy04]

I would take Monmouth and PSU, but the committee wouldn't

[ASU Kep]

PSU and San Diego, with CSU being the "woofed" team, though they'd have to beat CCU to get to 11-0 and that I don't think will happen.

[UMass922]

Eastern Illinois and Portland State.

[griz37]

Can we add Montana St. to this list. They beat Portland St. (14-0), they will finish 2nd in the BSC & the Colorado win has to count for something.

[Cincy App]

Who do you think the Playoff Selection Committee would select for the last 2 spots?

Who would you select for the last 2 spots?

My guess is that the PSC would select Delaware St and Holy Cross.

I would give one spot to either Del St or Holy Cross (lean to Del St) and one spot to either Portland St or Eastern Illinois (lean to PSU).

A couple more thoughts:
- Last year's 8-3 Youngstown team would likely easily make the 2006 field as it seems to be shaping up - but we'll see what happens over the next 2 weeks

- It will be interesting if a final spot is decided between a team with a subpar schedule (ie - USD or Monmouth) vs. the dreaded 4 loss team (PSU or EIU). A team with a very poor SOS has never made the field before as an at-large while it has been 11 years since the last 4-loss at large team has made the field. Something may have to give...

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Monmouth really deserves a shot. They have the horses and speed to compete in the playoffs. They've played a respectable schedule and have put up a great record to this point. The thing that bugs me is when people argue over playoff worthyness by saying,"let them come to Missoula, Boone, JMU and let them see how worthy they are". Lets be honest, that is not really a good indication of who deserves to be in the playoffs. I think there's 4 or 5 teams that will be in the field of 16 that would/will have no shot at beating those teams and have little to no chance to reach 'Nooga. Monmouth could give Lehigh/Lafayette/HC, UT-Martin, SL Champ, Furman, and maybe the 3rd A-10 or Gateway team a run for their money.

BTW you forgot Coastal who i think has a pretty good chance to get in.

[Cincy App]

Can we add Montana St. to this list. They beat Portland St. (14-0), they will finish 2nd in the BSC & the Colorado win has to count for something.

I think that Montana St will be in the equation as long as they take Montana to the wire but I fear that their D-II loss will really hurt them. Feel free to add your preferred "4 loss" team.

Certainly, both Montana St and PSU have impressive I-A victories over Colorado and New Mexico, respectively.

[Cincy App]

BTW you forgot Coastal who i think has a pretty good chance to get in.

For argument sake only, I am suggesting that CSU beats Coastal and finishes 11-0. Coastal would fall to 8-3 which likely would not make the field but one never knows.

[AZGrizFan]

Eastern Illinois and Portland State.


Agreed. :thumbsup:

[UMass922]

BTW you forgot Coastal who i think has a pretty good chance to get in.

Good call. I'd take them over PSU, so I'll change my pick to EIU and Coastal.

[BobbyMo]

Monmouth really deserves a shot. They have the horses and speed to compete in the playoffs. They've played a respectable schedule and have put up a great record to this point. The thing that bugs me is when people argue over playoff worthyness by saying,"let them come to Missoula, Boone, JMU and let them see how worthy they are". Lets be honest, that is not really a good indication of who deserves to be in the playoffs. I think there's 4 or 5 teams that will be in the field of 16 that would/will have no shot at beating those teams and have little to no chance to reach 'Nooga. Monmouth could give Lehigh/Lafayette/HC, UT-Martin, SL Champ, Furman, and maybe the 3rd A-10 or Gateway team a run for their money.

BTW you forgot Coastal who i think has a pretty good chance to get in.

Agreed :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

[UMass922]

For argument sake only, I am suggesting that CSU beats Coastal and finishes 11-0. Coastal would fall to 8-3 which likely would not make the field but one never knows.

I disagree. Coastal at 8-3 would still look a lot better than most of those other teams. They have wins over Furman, Wofford, and South Carolina State. That's a very respectable slate of OOC wins. Which of those other teams has done anything close to that?

[Torero Tradition]

If Cal Poly loses again this weekend, that might open up an additional spot. The Big Sky Conference could very well only get one team in along with the Southland Conference. Would be interesting to see but I think San Diego gets in at 10-0 with all the other teams having 4 loses. Another thing to remember, USD is the top ranked Mid-major team and has won 17 games in a row. They get in over the other mid-majors, IMHO

[grizband]

If Cal Poly loses again this weekend, that might open up an additional spot. The Big Sky Conference could very well only get one team in along with the Southland Conference. Would be interesting to see but I think San Diego gets in at 10-0 with all the other teams having 4 loses. Another thing to remember, USD is the top ranked Mid-major team and has won 17 games in a row. They get in over the other mid-majors, IMHO
If there ever was a year for USD to make the playoffs, it is this when, when traditionally multiple bid leagues in the SLC and Big Sky may only get one bid each.

[Guard Dawg]

That's what worries me about this year.... USD might freakin make it.... this is like a bad dream that won't go away... can of worms about to be opened?!?!?!?!

[*****]

That's what worries me about this year.... USD might freakin make it.... this is like a bad dream that won't go away... can of worms about to be opened?!?!?!?!The Sky Is Falling!! The sun is crashing in!! All h-e-double toothpicks is breaking loose!! Dawg Dawg Diggity Dawg!! xlolx :cool: xcoffeex

[Torero Tradition]

If a non-scholly team doesn't get in this year... they are probably never getting in...

[ASU Kep]

USD, CCU, etc. should be huge Eagle fans this weekend, too. If GSU upsets Furman, the SOCON (which traditionally fields 3) will only get one team in. I know USD isn't a great first-round match for App due to geographics, but it can only help their case. If GSU beats Furman, Montana beats MSU, and the A-10 continues to knock eachother there just might be some room for USD.
I say let em in...and if they get annihilated that will be taken into account for future mid-major selections.

[AndrewFU21]

For argument sake, let's say that we have the following situation after the games on 11/18:

AQ's - UMass, Lehigh, ASU, Hampton, Youngstown St, UT-Martin, Montana, and McNeese St

1st 6 at large teams agreed upon by the Playoff Selection Committee - JMU, UNH, Furman, Illinois St, S Illinois, and Cal Poly

Choices and records of teams being considered for the last 2 spots:
Delaware St 9-2
Charleston Southern 11-0
San Diego 10-0
Holy Cross 8-3
Monmouth 10-1
Eastern Illinois 8-4
Portland St 7-4

Assume that all other teams from AQ conferences have at least 4 losses.

Who do you think the Playoff Selection Committee would select for the last 2 spots?

Who would you select for the last 2 spots?

The crazy thing is, suppose FU loses to GSU, Cal Poly loses to NDSU, etc?

At what point to you look at 4 loss teams like potentially UNI, Maine, Wofford, etc?

With the lack of really good teams this year, I think you take an undefeated USD and a 9-2 Coastal. Supposing Coastal loses, I don't know.

[*****]

... With the lack of really good teams this year...I think we have some hyper-dominant teams that may stomp through the playoffs to make some awesome quarter/semi/final masterpieces!

[catbob]

While MSU may be deserving if they finish 7-4, I don't see them getting in, and I wouldn't be upset if they didn't. If we'da beat Chadron, we aren't even having this conversation - we'd be 8-3 worst case scenario.

Hell if we beat Eastern Washington, MSU would be in. :( :( :(

[Maverick]

How can anyone contemplate teams with a SOS rank in Sagarin of 231 such as USD or Charleston Southern at 225 even being worthy of consideration for an at-large bid to the playoffs? This runs completely contrary to what has been done in the past for at-large bids. Eligible doesn't mean worthy. Sagarins rating seems to be heavily weighted for offensive production and won-loss thus the ranking results, but Sagarins SOS is based on the results of the teams played and is not factored in to the teams rankings. Thus USD has only 9 teams with a worse schedule. Wonder how they ran up those gaudy numbers with that schedule. It does read in the NCAA playoff selection process that the committee will examine the record to determine a team's strength of schedule. Based on that, USD and Charleston Southern should not even be mentioned in any reality based comments on being the playoffs.

[Appstate29]

That's what worries me about this year.... USD might freakin make it.... this is like a bad dream that won't go away... can of worms about to be opened?!?!?!?!


As it should worry a lot of people. This is going to send a clear message to the ADs everywhere that SOS means absolutely jack. I remember how great everyone said it was for two top teams to meet OOC this year (JMU-ASU) and how they'd like to see it again, even a conference challenge. If USD gets in you can kiss that goodbye, because every AD will know they need to schedule the weakest I-AA teams they can find in order to get the most wins, no matter how badly damamged their SoS is.

[Seahawks Fan]

I would take Monmouth. Convincing out of conference wins against Fordham, Morgan State and Colgate. A very solid team.

[LU van]

Given your scenario, I would pick Monmouth and E Illinois.

However, odds are that Coastal beats Chuck South and Cal Poly loses again to disrupt your scenario. And the way that Gateway teams have been knocking each other off, it's not a given that they get 3 or more teams in.

[BestOfBreed]

I would take Monmouth. Convincing out of conference wins against Fordham, Morgan State and Colgate. A very solid team.

I'm not convinced about those wins.
Fordham 2-7 record
Morgan State 5-5 record
Colgate 3-6 record

[psc2445]

I think we have some hyper-dominant teams that may stomp through the playoffs to make some awesome quarter/semi/final masterpieces!


agreed:thumbsup:

[Torero Tradition]

So the last two spots.... San Diego and who gets them?

[dungeonjoe]

I can't see any 7-4 teams in the field of 16. You would jump over several 3 or loss teams to get to that point. SOS is very important. But winning is also pretty high on the list.

[LUHawker]

I can't see any 7-4 teams in the field of 16. You would jump over several 3 or loss teams to get to that point. SOS is very important. But winning is also pretty high on the list.


Lehigh could be in at 7-4 with the auto-bid from the PL.

If you were just talking the at-large bids, you are probably correct.

[dungeonjoe]

Lehigh could be in at 7-4 with the auto-bid from the PL.

If you were just talking the at-large bids, you are probably correct.

right. I meant at large teams.