Nova & UNH

[Nova09]

As many of you know Nova and UNH do not play each other this year. So to get way way far ahead of myself, and to be clear I am not predicting this, how will the committee seed them relative to each other if they both win out?

Nova still has to go to Richmond and W&M. UNH survived Richmond at home and still has W&M.

AGSers have Nova ahead of UNH, but other polls differ, so my question is not so much what do you think but what do you think the committee will think? Will they even care about the Cuse should have been victory or will that be so far in the past and bottom line just another FBS loss? Will the Fordham thrashing carry much weight? Will it come down to score margins against the best 2-3 common opponents?

I ask because regardless of what other teams do around us the difference between 2 seeded teams, even if no teams are wedged between, could be huge. 1-2 would be least significant, but I would imagine NDSU would have to lose a minimum of twice for that to happen. 2-3 is the difference of home field. 3-4 is the difference of having to play 1 at their place as opposed to neutral site.

Don't even bother responding if your response is way too early to be thinking about that, I know that and I know it is unlikely which is why I want some discussion now while it is still theoretically possible.

[Lehigh'98]

Assuming both win out or lose 1, it would come down to how dominant the wins are. Nova looks like they can handle any team right now, but we shall see.

[Mattymc727]

I was actually thinking the same thing. Not to be nit-picky, but UNH won @ Richmond, which isnt easy. The only game UNH may not be favored in going forward may be against W&M (game is in Durham on homecoming). So its very possible UNH ends up at 10-1.

Because of UNH's playoff streak, the committee has been pretty in favor of selecting UNH these past years. Lot of 7-4 UNH teams getting in. I think the committee likes UNH and Sean McDonnell for some reason.

Another thing to consider is that playing at Cowell sucks for the NCAA because they cant make much money. Unless UNH wins out, the committee may want to avoid giving UNH a seed or even a home game.

[JMUNJ08]

I was actually thinking the same thing. Not to be nit-picky, but UNH won @ Richmond, which isnt easy. The only game UNH may not be favored in going forward may be against W&M (game is in Durham on homecoming). So its very possible UNH ends up at 10-1.

Because of UNH's playoff streak, the committee has been pretty in favor of selecting UNH these past years. Lot of 7-4 UNH teams getting in. I think the committee likes UNH and Sean McDonnell for some reason.

Another thing to consider is that playing at Cowell sucks for the NCAA because they cant make much money. Unless UNH wins out, the committee may want to avoid giving UNH a seed or even a home game.

Not sure if you remember those mind blowing 5K crowds at Nova a few years back on ESPN...

I think it does come down a little to dominance. JMU avoids UNH this year while Nova played them and dropped the hammer in the second half. The key would be for UR/ W&M to stay strong with similar results from UNH/ Nova. If (by some miraculous gift), JMU beats UR/ W&M and becomes the #3/4 team, I think that could be Nova's nugget to getting the better seed.

Either way, besides a huge injury bug, both look destined for some cushy NEC/ PL game to start the playoffs at home...

[VUCats02]

It's way too early to be thinking about that.

[Nova09]

It's way too early to be thinking about that.

I knew someone was gonna be a smartass like that, didn't expect you!

[UNH Fanboi]

If both UNH and Nova win out, the whining from MVFC fans about the CAA not playing a full round robin is going to be epic.

[Nova09]

If both UNH and Nova win out, the whining from MVFC fans about the CAA not playing a full round robin is going to be epic.

Big Sky fans conveniently stopped thinking there is anything wrong with that...

[MR. CHICKEN]

If both UNH and Nova win out, the whining from MVFC fans about the CAA not playing a full round robin is going to be epic.


19734.........VALLEY SQWADS......DON'T PLAY....EVERAH-ONE...EITHERAH.........DEY'LL JES' HALFTA DEAL WIT IT........19733...AWQ!

[Anovafan]

Not a great answer, but if both win out I think it will come down to who else gets into the playoffs and it will be based on the regional bracketing thing. Nova will likely be closer geographically to other schools and UNH will likely get sent on a plane sooner than Nova. I hope for both teams they do win out. It would be a great thing for the CAA.

[Gordon Shumway]

Not a great answer, but if both win out I think it will come down to who else gets into the playoffs and it will be based on the regional bracketing thing. Nova will likely be closer geographically to other schools and UNH will likely get sent on a plane sooner than Nova. I hope for both teams they do win out. It would be a great thing for the CAA.

I think it is a stretch to think they will both win out, but if they do, that plane ride for UNH wouldn't happen until the quarters at the earliest, and not likely until the semis. Two 10-1 CAA teams aren't going anywhere early in the postseason. Fun to contemplate, but highly unlikely it will happen.

[Mattymc727]

If both win out, they both will be top 5 seeds regardless of what everyone else does. Everyone knows the committee loves the CAA.

[LeadBolt]

According to Massey, both Villanova and UNH are favorites in each of their remaining games, so winning out for both isn't as improbable as I might otherwise think.

I haven't gotten a good feel for W&M's team this year, but still hope that they will take one of the games vs. UNH or Villanova. Massey is showing both UNH and Villanova as 3 pt favorites with a 59% probability of winning vs. W&M at this point.

[Nova09]

Apparently UNH only plays an 11 game schedule while Nova is playing 12 this year. I think that extra win would ultimately sway the committee to give Nova the better seed.

Massey win expectancy shows Nova going 7.37-1.63 from here on out. UNH 6.28-1.72, so probably 1 or 2 losses for each of them, which I would have predicted without the data to support it. But however it plays out, I wouldn't mind hosting UNH in another playoff game if we can get the same result as last time :D

[Mattymc727]

I would be shocked if UNH is worse than 9-2 at the end. UNH has such a favorable schedule going forward. Road games at Elon, URI, and Maine while home games against Dartmouth, Albany, Stony Brook, W&M, and Delaware.

UNH is also 35-4 at home since 2007 too. With W&M having 3 of those home losses...

Somehow UNH missed Nova, Towson, AND JMU this year, very lucky.

[dewey]

I would be shocked if UNH is worse than 9-2 at the end. UNH has such a favorable schedule going forward. Road games at Elon, URI, and Maine while home games against Dartmouth, Albany, Stony Brook, W&M, and Delaware.

UNH is also 35-4 at home since 2007 too. With W&M having 3 of those home losses...

Somehow UNH missed Nova, Towson, AND JMU this year, very lucky.

With such a favorable schedule does the strength of schedule then come into play on who has the higher overall seed assuming they both end with 1 or 2 lossess?

I would imagine that there would be a lot of common opponent comparisons. I would think that with Villanova losing to Syracuse in 2 OT's vs NH losing by 34 to Toledo would also come into play. Now is Syracuse better or worse than Toledo, I don't know.

Dewey

[Mattymc727]

Like others have said, if they both win out, you have to compare vs tough common opponents. Nova still has to play Richmond and W&M, UNH still has to play W&M.

At the end, you can compare how both teams did against the 3 tough games. Right now Nova would get the better seed IMO because they performed better against their FBS opponent.

UNH and Nova both play @ Richmond too, so thats a good comparison. UNH only won by 3, if Nova beats that, it may become pretty clear who the better team is.

Delaware is also a common opponent, although UNH has them at home and Nova plays at Delaware, so its hard to judge.

[Mattymc727]

Actually, comparing schedules clearly shows that Nova has a much tougher SOS than UNH, so if both undefeated in conference play Nova should be the higher seed.