AGS Top 25 - How They Fared Week 4

[superman7515]

Lots to talk about this week folks!

Seven losses in the Top 25, ten losses by teams ranked 26-40. Is the picture getting clearer or just more muddled?

No moral victories, but Montana looked better than many predicted in their trip to Fargo and #14 Richmond stayed within a field goal of #5 New Hampshire, so how do you judge those games where teams lost but generally played well against a higher ranked opponent? Northwestern State with a win over FBS Louisiana Tech, #11 Jacksonville State with a 45-34 victory against D2 West Alabama...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdGJlbS1laVlmSFRHeGxfS2JHVjlUT Xc&usp=sharing

If you see any errors, please send me a note so I can get that fixed ASAP, and as always thank you for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week. Looking forward to some good conversation before filling out my ballot, so what do you think?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

SELA should really take a tumble. I was shocked they stayed #3 after a blah performance against Tulane last week. They should be out of the Top 10 after today's loss imo...

EKU is definitely on the rise. Both Montana teams gained a lot of respect in defeat imo.....

[clenz]

San Diego to the top 10...right?

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

San Diego to the top 10...right?

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk

Right behind South Dakota xsmiley_wix

[MTfan4life]

Lots to talk about this week folks!

Seven losses in the Top 25, ten losses by teams ranked 26-40. Is the picture getting clearer or just more muddled?

No moral victories, but Montana looked better than many predicted in their trip to Fargo and #14 Richmond stayed within a field goal of #5 New Hampshire, so how do you judge those games where teams lost but generally played well against a higher ranked opponent? Northwestern State with a win over FBS Louisiana Tech, #11 Jacksonville State with a 45-34 victory against D2 West Alabama...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgtKAORz8z6vdGJlbS1laVlmSFRHeGxfS2JHVjlUT Xc&usp=sharing

If you see any errors, please send me a note so I can get that fixed ASAP, and as always thank you for making "How They Fared" the number 1 tool on AGS for filling out your brackets each week. Looking forward to some good conversation before filling out my ballot, so what do you think?


To be fair to JSU, that game was 45-14 in the 4th quarter. It's not like West Alabama ran them down to the wire like they did last season. They just were very efficient in garbage time.

[superman7515]

To be fair to JSU, that game was 45-14 in the 4th quarter. It's not like West Alabama ran them down to the wire like they did last season. They just were very efficient in garbage time.

I know, that's why I was mentioning it for discussion. I was trying to mention a few games people should take a closer look at without trying to jam my opinion on anyone. I believe that game wasn't really as close as the final score suggests and taking a second to click on the recap & box score would help bear that out a bit.

[MTfan4life]

I know, that's why I was mentioning it for discussion. I was trying to mention a few games people should take a closer look at without trying to jam my opinion on anyone. I believe that game wasn't really as close as the final score suggests and taking a second to click on the recap & box score would help bear that out a bit.

Fair enough. I just figured I'd put that for those that don't take that second to check the box. Aka, the ones who didn't realize Chatty barely eclipsed 100 yards of total offense on JSU and just thought they played a tight equal overtime game.

[centennial]

If Montana is top 10 and NAU almost ranked then SD needs to be ranked too.
EWU should fall because of performance vs Montana State.
Indiana State should be ranked higher, Indiana just beat the Mizzou.
Both Missouri State and North Western State need to be ranked.
SELA is waay too high.
Furman should be dropped from top 25
EKU should be close to the top 10

[Big_Fan]

Fair enough. I just figured I'd put that for those that don't take that second to check the box. Aka, the ones who didn't realize Chatty barely eclipsed 100 yards of total offense on JSU and just thought they played a tight equal overtime game.


To be honest, the way we kind of quit when we got way up on UWA bothers me. I mean, we were up 45-14 with 11 minutes left in the game, and redzone fumbles were the only reason it wasn't 59-14... so we had been dominant, but then we shut down.

Our secondary was sleepwalking in the 4th quarter, and no one told UWA the game was over. Their Harlon Hill candidate super flea QB made us pay. If we play like that against quality FCS opponents, we will not be ranked for long.

JSU has the talent to beat anyone in the top 25. If we play like we did in the 2nd and 3rd quarters today, we will be hard to beat. If we play like we did in the 1st or 4th, we will finish with a losing record.

We are definitely a Jekyll and Hyde team at this point. We should have beaten UWA 59-7. To the observer, it was obvious that the game was a physical mismatch, but it didn't look that way in the 4th quarter. It was "Crowe-esque."

All that said, UWA pushed McNeese to a 44-42 game last season, and had a lot of that team back. They are a solid D2 team, capable of a pushing an FCS team. They wouldn't fare well in a 12 game schedule, but they can make you work to beat them. I suspect that they will have a solid season. They may not win the Gulf South Conference, but they will win some ball games.

[chattanoogamocs]

Fair enough. I just figured I'd put that for those that don't take that second to check the box. Aka, the ones who didn't realize Chatty barely eclipsed 100 yards of total offense on JSU and just thought they played a tight equal overtime game.

To say it wasn't a tight equal overtime game does a serious injustice to the Mocs defense, because it was in fact a tight equal game overall. Granted, it wasn't equal offensively, but it was equal overall (because the Mocs are led by their defense).

It was 7-7 at the end of the 1st quarter, 17-14 at the half, 20-17 at the end of the 3rd and 20-20 going into OT.

Sorry, not trying to pick an argument. Just taking up from my alma mater. :)

As for JSU today...West Alabama played a great first half, they went for it on 4th and goal at the 2 to try and get the game to 24-21 at the half (but it failed). JSU did finally put on the gas in the 3rd and pulled away convincingly (before UWA got it closer in garbage time).

[ekufbfan]

To say it wasn't a tight equal overtime game does a serious injustice to the Mocs defense, because it was in fact a tight equal game overall. Granted, it wasn't equal offensively, but it was equal overall (because the Mocs are led by their defense).

It was 7-7 at the end of the 1st quarter, 17-14 at the half, 20-17 at the end of the 3rd and 20-20 going into OT.

Sorry, not trying to pick an argument. Just taking up from my alma mater. :)

As for JSU today...West Alabama played a great first half, they went for it on 4th and goal at the 2 to try and get the game to 24-21 at the half (but it failed). JSU did finally put on the gas in the 3rd and pulled away convincingly (before UWA got it closer in garbage time).


chatty: Don't argue with Big Fan, he'll accuse you of kissing your sister and dating your cousin... Not to mention having 6 toes on you foot.


Good game by the Colonels. Got a few horses on offense. Need to settle on one QB and the defense needs to tighten up. Otherwise I like what I see.

[Cocky]

Fair enough. I just figured I'd put that for those that don't take that second to check the box. Aka, the ones who didn't realize Chatty barely eclipsed 100 yards of total offense on JSU and just thought they played a tight equal overtime game.

i wish more game recaps were posted as it does help especially when coaches put on the brakes.

[UNIFanSince1983]

If Montana is top 10 and NAU almost ranked then SD needs to be ranked too.
EWU should fall because of performance vs Montana State.
Indiana State should be ranked higher, Indiana just beat the Mizzou.
Both Missouri State and North Western State need to be ranked.
SELA is waay too high.
Furman should be dropped from top 25
EKU should be close to the top 10

But Indiana State lost by 18 to Indiana so I don't see this as meaning anything. That would be like saying UNI needs to be higher because Iowa just beat Pitt. It makes no difference because we lost to Iowa.

[Professor Chaos]

I thought this was one of the easiest weeks in a while to fill out my poll ballot. With one big exception pretty much all the teams who were supposed to win based on my previous rankings did and the teams that lost to those higher ranked teams were respectable enough that it didn't warrant a big drop.

[SU DOG]

i wish more game recaps were posted as it does help especially when coaches put on the brakes.

I may be wrong on this, but didn't putting on the brakes almost cost JSU the Chatty game? To me, the Gamecocks' offense looked really vanilla in the second half. Granted, that may have been due to a UTC defense that is certainly stout. I guess my question is: Is this a dangerous trend that JSU shows this year that would NEVER have been seen under Bill Clark? Just curious(?)

[CrazyCat]

Thought I would throw this quote in here by Colter Nuanez reporter for Bobcat Beat.


I've covered 54 'Cat games live now, including 39 wins and today was the single best effort and performance I've seen Montana State give. Don't read into the stats defensively. MSU played excellent situational defense and executed their game-plan incredibly well. They harassed Vernon Adams all day, sacked him three times, hurried him half a dozen other times, picked him off twice and didn't let him get in a rhythm until late. The offense moved the ball at will, hit big plays, short plays, long plays, clutch plays. I've never been much one for thinking a team can achieve a moral victory, but this was the first game, win or loss, I came away not wondering what MSU's players or coaches could have done better. There's plays they could have made, penalties that could have gone another way, a multitude of things, but Montana State performed to almost it's maximum capacity for the talent they have at their disposal this afternoon.

And on top of those 54 Cat games I've covered, I've probably watched 100 more Big Sky football games over the last 20 years and I'll tell you, that was the single most competitive, entertaining Big Sky regular-season football game I've ever watched in person. What an effort by both teams.

[superman7515]

For what it's worth, I don't think I'll drop Montana State (1 point loss to a team ranked 15 spots higher) or Richmond (3 point loss to a team ranked 9 spots higher). If a game is that close to a team ranked ahead of them, that doesn't tell me I should drop Montana State or Richmond, it tells me I had them in the right spot to begin with.

[tomq04]

i moved up both montana schools, but i'm still trying to sort this out...my opinion is likely worth exactly what i'm being paid for it.

[RabidRabbit]

Moving up on a loss rarely makes sense. Moving up an idle slightly or bringing in a new team with an FBS win makes sense. However, I'll note that the USD win over MN (2011?) and Nichols win over Eastern MI (2013) didn't mean that those teams were good.

I was watching the last two quarter of the ISU(b) @ IU, and came away impressed with the Sycs play. Very similar type loss as SDSU suffered @ Mizzou. ISU(b) may not be the cellar of the MVFC this season. But MVFC will only be sorted out by the conference games.

I could see there be a whole lot of 4-4 MVFC teams this season.

[unigriff]

Moving up on a loss rarely makes sense. Moving up an idle slightly or bringing in a new team with an FBS win makes sense. However, I'll note that the USD win over MN (2011?) and Nichols win over Eastern MI (2013) didn't mean that those teams were good.

I was watching the last two quarter of the ISU(b) @ IU, and came away impressed with the Sycs play. Very similar type loss as SDSU suffered @ Mizzou. ISU(b) may not be the cellar of the MVFC this season. But MVFC will only be sorted out by the conference games.

I could see there be a whole lot of 4-4 MVFC teams this season.


which is not good for getting multi bids in...especially 4 or 5. Only one team at 4-4 will get into the playoffs if lucky and their SOS is worth a damn.

[Houndawg]

NDSU did a few years ago. Made the semis I think..

[knucklehead]

When does voting open. Haven't gotten an email yet.

[Cocky]

It's open

[knucklehead]

Where can the link be found. No email?

[Professor Chaos]

Where can the link be found. No email?
The thread with the link is in the AGS Poll forum: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?160432-2014-AGS-POLL-Week4-Vote-Is-Open

[knucklehead]

Thanks!

[superman7515]

So what do we think of the SELA loss? I had them ranked fairly well, but I wasn't expecting anything out of SEMO this year...

SELA overhyped?
SEMO underrated?
Combination of the two?
Fluke?

[underdawg]

SEMO is very much underrated. SIU beat them 50-23 but 21 of our points were off TOs ---some unforced. They are a dangerous team in the OVC.

[Houndawg]

You ladies want to take this cat fight outside?

[superman7515]

You ladies want to take this cat fight outside?

Or at least a thread other than this one.

[knucklehead]

Besides a few premier teams, it's really hard to know how good or bad most teams are right now. With FBS D2 and unproven FCS matchups it may take a while to figure it all out.

[Big_Fan]

19727

[MSUBobcat]

Never thought I'd use it, but the Ban Hammer cometh if this continues....

[BisonFan02]

I must have missed something....where did all of the questionable posts go? I'm a glutton for punishment and curious what they said.

[Red & Black]

NDSU did a few years ago. Made the semis I think..

Quarter's.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[clenz]

****...I should probably get this done.

I only have a couple hours.

[BisonBacker]

I thought this was one of the easiest weeks in a while to fill out my poll ballot. With one big exception pretty much all the teams who were supposed to win based on my previous rankings did and the teams that lost to those higher ranked teams were respectable enough that it didn't warrant a big drop.

The biggest drop I had in my poll was Montana simply because I had them to high in the first place.

[BisonBacker]

Thought I would throw this quote in here by Colter Nuanez reporter for Bobcat Beat.

I didn't really drop them either since they played EWU close but how in gods creation can you make a statement like MSU played excellent situational defense? Good lord man you gave up over 50 points. In what universe is that anything even close to any kind of defense????? CrazyCat don't misinterpret I'm not questioning you I'm dumbfounded at the reporters comments.

[Tribe4SF]

The biggest drop I had in my poll was Montana simply because I had them to high in the first place.

They moved up a spot in mine because SELA dropped.

[robsnotes4u]

I didn't really drop them either since they played EWU close but how in gods creation can you make a statement like MSU played excellent situational defense? Good lord man you gave up over 50 points. In what universe is that anything even close to any kind of defense????? CrazyCat don't misinterpret I'm not questioning you I'm dumbfounded at the reporters comments.

How do you drop a team (MSU) that loses to a much a higher rated team (EWU) by 1 point, when they, by the polls, are suppose to lose by more. I am not as good as any of you at this, but I would take the losing team, and compare them with each team down the line from the winning team.

Shouldn't they be able to move up? I understand one game doesn't do it, but...

Or, do you drop the winning team as they only defeated the lower team by a point?

[BisonBacker]

How do you drop a team (MSU) that loses to a much a higher rated team (EWU) by 1 point, when they, by the polls, are suppose to lose by more. I am not as good as any of you at this, but I would take the losing team, and compare them with each team down the line from the winning team.

Shouldn't they be able to move up? I understand one game doesn't do it, but...

Or, do you drop the winning team as they only defeated the lower team by a point?

You apparently didn't read my post that you even quoted. MSU in my poll didn't drop. In fact they actually moved up. Montana on the other hand is another story.

[BisonBacker]

They moved up a spot in mine because SELA dropped.

To each his own it's all a matter of opinion. I had Montana to high in the first place (top 5) and it's my opinion they clearly are not a top 5 team. I could see them moving either direction depending on where you had them placed before the game but after this weekend if Montana is still in the top 10 I'll be surprised.

[superman7515]

...but after this weekend if Montana is still in the top 10 I'll be surprised.

They lost by 12 points on the road to the #1 team in the nation. I'd be surprised if they aren't in the Top 10. You think Coastal Carolina would have stayed that close? You think New Hampshire's defense is going to hold them to 22 in Fargo? Eastern Washington is only going to allow 1 touchdown? What 9 teams, from the results we've seen so far, are going into Fargo and playing better than Montana?

[gotts]

They lost by 12 points on the road to the #1 team in the nation. I'd be surprised if they aren't in the Top 10. You think Coastal Carolina would have stayed that close? You think New Hampshire's defense is going to hold them to 22 in Fargo? Eastern Washington is only going to allow 1 touchdown? What 9 teams, from the results we've seen so far, are going into Fargo and playing better than Montana?

This post is full of so much truth.

You can say a team isn't deserving of XXth rank, but then who are the teams that are better than said team?

[clenz]

I have Montana in the top 10.

Their defense looked pretty good, but that could be because NDSUs play calling in the redzone tightened way up.

That game could have easily been about 35-10

[robsnotes4u]

You apparently didn't read my post that you even quoted. MSU in my poll didn't drop. In fact they actually moved up. Montana on the other hand is another story.

I did read your post, I wasn't saying you dropped them, I was adding to your point of not dropping them.

[Mattymc727]

They lost by 12 points on the road to the #1 team in the nation. I'd be surprised if they aren't in the Top 10. You think Coastal Carolina would have stayed that close? You think New Hampshire's defense is going to hold them to 22 in Fargo? Eastern Washington is only going to allow 1 touchdown? What 9 teams, from the results we've seen so far, are going into Fargo and playing better than Montana?

Well, obviously Chattanooga

[superman7515]

Well, obviously Chattanooga

Yeah, but that's only 1-5 of the nine teams, who are the other four? xconfusedx

[BisonBacker]

They lost by 12 points on the road to the #1 team in the nation. I'd be surprised if they aren't in the Top 10. You think Coastal Carolina would have stayed that close? You think New Hampshire's defense is going to hold them to 22 in Fargo? Eastern Washington is only going to allow 1 touchdown? What 9 teams, from the results we've seen so far, are going into Fargo and playing better than Montana?

So if they had lost to NDSU by 20+ would you consider them a top 10 team? It could easily have been that had NDSU not gone conservative. I think they were to high to begin with. I had them to high myself. I'd say 10-15 is about right. It's not only about defense but moreso offense or lack of. They are a 2-2 team. Didn't show much against Wyoming and Wyoming is under a new staff. They played Central Washington and I don't see where you can make much of that game as far as how well they will do in conference. USD played them tough and USD will likely finish in the bottom half of the MVFC however USD could prove me wrong. So far I'm impressed with what USD did against Montana. Yeah it can be said Montana played NDSU well or it could be said NDSU got conservative going to field goals but anyone who was at the game knows NDSU dominated Montana although the score doesn't necessarily show that. I'm not saying Montana isn't a good team. They are but I don't know that they are top 10 so there you go. I think an argument could easily be made for 9 other teams to be placed ahead of them based on what they have done so far.

[BisonBacker]

They lost by 12 points on the road to the #1 team in the nation. I'd be surprised if they aren't in the Top 10. You think Coastal Carolina would have stayed that close? You think New Hampshire's defense is going to hold them to 22 in Fargo? Eastern Washington is only going to allow 1 touchdown? What 9 teams, from the results we've seen so far, are going into Fargo and playing better than Montana?

This isn't so much about how much these teams would hold us to 22 points as I don't know if they could or not but would have given them as much of a chance to do it or possibly score more than 10 points against us. Again this isn't so much a knock on Montana as they may well end up being a top 5 team by the end of the year but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a few more games and then are you going to argue they are a top 10? I see the EWU and Montana State games being big question marks for them. Outside of that the rest of their schedule is favorable. The season will play out and they will have their chance to make a statement when they play EWU and MSU. Those two games given no surprise losses with the rest of their schedule will say a lot about where they should be ranked. But to me the following teams have an argument to be ahead of them.

Eastern Washington Eagles
McNeese State Cowboys
New Hampshire Wildcats
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Jacksonville State
Northern Iowa Panthers
Villanova Wildcats
Youngstown State Penguins

Anymore Questions?

[chattownmocs]

where is the poll thread?

[Professor Chaos]

where is the poll thread?
AGS Poll Forum: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?160432-2014-AGS-POLL-Week4-Vote-Is-Open

[chattownmocs]

AGS Poll Forum: http://www.anygivensaturday.com/showthread.php?160432-2014-AGS-POLL-Week4-Vote-Is-Open

thanks, got my vote in. Best performance of my voting career.

[BisonBacker]

thanks, got my vote in. Best performance of my voting career.

Oh lord this ought to be good! xcrazyx

[robsnotes4u]

This isn't so much about how much these teams would hold us to 22 points as I don't know if they could or not but would have given them as much of a chance to do it or possibly score more than 10 points against us. Again this isn't so much a knock on Montana as they may well end up being a top 5 team by the end of the year but I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop a few more games and then are you going to argue they are a top 10? I see the EWU and Montana State games being big question marks for them. Outside of that the rest of their schedule is favorable. The season will play out and they will have their chance to make a statement when they play EWU and MSU. Those two games given no surprise losses with the rest of their schedule will say a lot about where they should be ranked. But to me the following teams have an argument to be ahead of them.

Eastern Washington Eagles
McNeese State Cowboys
New Hampshire Wildcats
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Jacksonville State
Northern Iowa Panthers
Villanova Wildcats
Youngstown State Penguins

Anymore Questions?

Good list, and i agree with EWU and MSU being question marks

Everyone will get pissy but my issue is this. Weber State is not ranked, and shouldn't be. Weber State gained more yards, gave up less yards, had 20 first downs versus 9 for the Griz, and the points are about the same. So I don't get the argument that the Griz should be a top 10 team.

The Griz did better, than the bookies, massey and others said they would. I was surprised the Bison kicked so many field goals, whether that is the Griz defense in the red zone or Bison play calling is another argument. If you give up the same amount of yards to the Bison, as they give up on average, what does that make you? Average?

Like a boxing match, you can dominate someone without knocking them out.