Patriot League Autobid Race, 3 weeks to go

[LeopardFan04]

Current Standings:

Lehigh..............3-0, 4-4.....................vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Holy Cross.........3-1, 6-3.....................vs. Buck, @ Gate, Idle
Lafayette..........2-1, 3-5.....................@ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Colgate.............2-1, 3-5.....................@ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Bucknell............2-2, 5-4......................@ HC, Idle, vs. Gate
Fordham*..........0-3, 1-7......................vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. Gtown

*Fordham seems to remain alive mathematically, if not realistically, although I'm not sure if they survive all tiebreakers...They'd win a tiebreaker with a 3-3 Holy Cross...but that's so unlikely it's not worth figuring out any further...

Georgetown is mathematically out at 0-4, they still play Marist (OOC), followed by away games at Lafayette and Fordham...

Obviously Lehigh is on the inside track, but games remain against Colgate and Lafayette. Holy Cross will need Lehigh to lose 2 games, and must win out to get the autobid. Lafayette needs to win out and hope for a Holy Cross loss. Colgate needs to win out, and get a Lafayette loss. Bucknell and Fordham are on the outside looking in, with Bucknell at least having some hope if they finish 4-2. (Nothing would suprise me anymore this season.) :rolleyes: This is all barring 3 way ties, which make things complicated, and in certain cases, things could come down to a vote of the other schools. :rotateh:

[ngineer]

Current Standings:

Lehigh..............3-0, 4-4.....................vs. Gate, vs. Ford, @ Laf
Holy Cross.........3-1, 6-3.....................vs. Buck, @ Gate, Idle
Lafayette..........2-1, 3-5.....................@ Ford, vs. Gtown, vs. Leh
Colgate.............2-1, 3-5.....................@ Leh, vs. HC, @ Buck
Bucknell............2-2, 5-4......................@ HC, Idle, vs. Gate
Fordham*..........0-3, 1-7......................vs. Laf, @ Leh, vs. Gtown

*Fordham seems to remain alive mathematically, if not realistically, although I'm not sure if they survive all tiebreakers...They'd win a tiebreaker with a 3-3 Holy Cross...but that's so unlikely it's not worth figuring out any further...

Georgetown is mathematically out at 0-4, they still play Marist (OOC), followed by away games at Lafayette and Fordham...

Obviously Lehigh is on the inside track, but games remain against Colgate and Lafayette. Holy Cross will need Lehigh to lose 2 games, and must win out to get the autobid. Lafayette needs to win out and hope for a Holy Cross loss. Colgate needs to win out, and get a Lafayette loss. Bucknell and Fordham are on the outside looking in, with Bucknell at least having some hope if they finish 4-2. (Nothing would suprise me anymore this season.) :rolleyes: This is all barring 3 way ties, which make things complicated, and in certain cases, things could come down to a vote of the other schools. :rotateh:

As I understand it, in a three-way tie, the remaining 4 AD's would vote--what if they tied??? Or do they keep doing secret ballots until white smoke comes out of the chimney??:rolleyes:
While we're 3-0, I don't see it as having any sort of advantage since we still have to win all our games at this point--unless the 'pards would lose to Fordham and Georgetown, which would be shocking.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

It's going to be interesting for sure. I can't wait til Saturday. Hopefully the team remains focused and doesn't start looking ahead. I will say the Lehigh-Lafayette game will be nuttyer than ever if it's for the auto-bid after the seasons both LC-LU have had.

[LeopardFan04]

It's going to be interesting for sure. I can't wait til Saturday. Hopefully the team remains focused and doesn't start looking ahead. I will say the Lehigh-Lafayette game will be nuttyer than ever if it's for the auto-bid after the seasons both LC-LU have had.


:nod:

[LeopardFan04]

[/B]

As I understand it, in a three-way tie, the remaining 4 AD's would vote--what if they tied??? Or do they keep doing secret ballots until white smoke comes out of the chimney??:rolleyes:
While we're 3-0, I don't see it as having any sort of advantage since we still have to win all our games at this point--unless the 'pards would lose to Fordham and Georgetown, which would be shocking.

From Page 6 of the Media Guide:

TIEBREAKING PROCEDURES
In the case of ties in the Patriot League final regular-season standings,
the following process will be used until all ties are broken and
the seeding process is completed (ties will be broken in rank order
beginning with the highest seed):
Head-to-Head Competition The higher seed will go to the team that
has won the most Patriot League contests played against the other
team(s) involved in the tie.
If a Tie Still Exists, a comparison of records will be made between
the tied institutions starting at the highest possible seed and continuing
through the lowest seed if necessary.
Sport-Specific Tiebreaking Procedure
A Comparison of Records against common out-of-League opponents
will be made.
If a Tie Still Exists, a committee consisting of the athletic directors
of each of the institutions not involved in the tie will make a final
decision considering each of the following, in no particular order:

Strength of Schedule

Overall Record

Computer Rankings
The committee will meet immediately following the conclusion of
the final game of the season’s final weekend. A three-fourths vote
of the members of the committee will be needed to determine the
champion.
Coin Flip (two teams) or draw (multiple teams).
The winner of the tiebreaker in the Patriot League for football earns
the Patriot League’s automatic bid to the NCAA Division I-AA playoffs.



Looks like that's the answer...I don't think the comparison of records against other teams would figure into a 3 way tie, since realistically each team would have one loss against one of the other two teams involved in the tie...:rotateh:

[LeopardFan04]

To add, it says that a comparison of OOC records with common opponents will be made...what's not clear is to me is...is that a determining step? In other words would they compare OOC records and that would break it? Or rather, is that just one of the things that the ADs, etc. consider?

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

To add, it says that a comparison of OOC records with common opponents will be made...what's not clear is to me is...is that a determining step? In other words would they compare OOC records and that would break it? Or rather, is that just one of the things that the ADs, etc. consider?

A HC, LC, LU tie and HC would most likely get it based on overall record, 6-5 just looks bad.

[LeopardFan04]

Here's the breakdown of common opp...suprisingly it doesn't doom Lafayette as I thought it would...doesn't settle anything...

Here's the scenarios...only included the top 4 teams...since realistically that's what it'll be...

LC/LU/CU...only common opp. is Princeton, and they all lost

LC/LU/HC...only common opp. is Harvard, and they all lost

LU/HC/CU...no common opp., goes straight to the vote

LC/HC/CU...same thing, no common opp., goes straight to the vote...

So in reality, a 3 way tie, where each team's loss is against another in the tie, will go to a vote of the other 4 schools, with one school needing a 3/4 vote to get the bid...I agree that an 8-3 HC team will probably look the best, with all 3 teams in that situation having lost to Harvard...however, will the loss to Northeastern at home hurt HC in this situation? The sad thing is, when I was going through this I really got the impact of how bad the PL is out of conference. Our top 4 teams are 6-14 OOC, with 3 of those wins belonging to Holy Cross...Here are the OOC wins by these 4 teams: Sacred Heart, Villanova, Marist, Brown, and 2 over Dartmouth...not exactly murderer's row right there...

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Here's the breakdown of common opp...suprisingly it doesn't doom Lafayette as I thought it would...doesn't settle anything...

Here's the scenarios...only included the top 4 teams...since realistically that's what it'll be...

LC/LU/CU...only common opp. is Princeton, and they all lost

LC/LU/HC...only common opp. is Harvard, and they all lost

LU/HC/CU...no common opp., goes straight to the vote

LC/HC/CU...same thing, no common opp., goes straight to the vote...

So in reality, a 3 way tie, where each team's loss is against another in the tie, will go to a vote of the other 4 schools, with one school needing a 3/4 vote to get the bid...I agree that an 8-3 HC team will probably look the best, with all 3 teams in that situation having lost to Harvard...however, will the loss to Northeastern at home hurt HC in this situation? The sad thing is, when I was going through this I really got the impact of how bad the PL is out of conference. Our top 4 teams are 6-14 OOC, with 3 of those wins belonging to Holy Cross...Here are the OOC wins by these 4 teams: Sacred Heart, Villanova, Marist, Brown, and 2 over Dartmouth...not exactly murderer's row right there...

There's no way LU/LC/CU, LC/HC/CU, LU/HC/CU can happen, atleast with 1 loss. A HC/LU/LC tie with 1 loss is the only possible 3-way tie. If everyone has 2 losses then they send Georgetown.....

[LeopardFan04]

There's no way LU/LC/CU, LC/HC/CU, LU/HC/CU can happen, atleast with 1 loss. A HC/LU/LC tie with 1 loss is the only possible 3-way tie. If everyone has 2 losses then they send Georgetown.....


You're correct, didn't realize/look to see that the other scenarios would mean that all would have to have 2 losses to tie...which would complicate things further...I still don't think we'd sent Georgetown...xlolx ;)

So LC/LU/HC would be the only feasible 3 way tie, and that would go to a vote...

So we just all have to hope that Colgate beats Holy Cross and Lafayette wins out, and then there's no confusion/turmoil! :hurray: :)

[Pard4Life]

I don't like the fact that OOC wins get noticed... Holy Cross beat Marist and Dartmouth! Seriously... meanwhile, Lafayette played the top four teams in the Ivy and all lost close games, aside from Harvard.

Either way HC must lose, Bucknell and Colgate both have decent shots at them.

It all depends on Lehigh once again... however I am concerned with Maurer's throwing and Threatt's potential ability of shreading our usually inconsistent, porous pass defense... although they played well vs. Colgate... maybe we should tear out the FieldTurf and put the grass back in.. we are 1-0 in the good stuff so far..

[Ivytalk]

My money's on Lehigh, which appears to be peaking at the right time.:nod:

[Pard4Life]

My money's on Lehigh, which appears to be peaking at the right time.:nod:

Sadly I somewhat agree...

[Pards Rule]

But we got THREE - count them P4L - weeks to go before Lehigh. And its at Fisher Field - the RENOVATED Fisher Field. Lehigh is generally always a tough battle but we are up to Pard with them!

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Way too early to be worrying about tiebreakers with Colgate/Lehigh, Holy Cross/Colgate and Lehigh/Lafayette coming up. More specifically, it's way too early since Colgate will be coming to Lehigh desperate to sell their grandmother for a win.

Even speculating about the votes is premature. Let's say Lafayette wins the rest of their games (including Lehigh) by a combined score of 120-12, while Lehigh loses to Lafayette and limp to wins over Colgate and Fordham, while Holy Cross is equally as uninspiring against Colgate, and Bucknell. Do you really look at the record and say, "Holy Cross", or do you look at "Lafayette won their last three games 120-12?" Do they vote the team that they think will do the best job in the playoffs? Do they vote on pretty helmets? Who knows?

Hopefully Lehigh will win their next three games and make the only speculation as to whether Holy Cross, against all odds, gets an at-large bid. :nod:

[carney2]

My money's on Lehigh, which appears to be peaking at the right time.:nod:

Not a bad observation. Assuming that Lehigh beats Colgate this week, as I believe they will, even more credence is added to your position. Lafayette, on the other hand, appeared to break out of its five week hibernation (six, including the bye) this past Saturday, but now pairs off against two supposedly weak teams (Fordham and Georgetown) which will probably not tell us much about where they stand. Frankly, methinx that it won't be until about 3:30 PM on the 18th before we get a real good feel for this one.

[Pards Rule]

Indeed Carney...They gotta keep their focus and not let Lehigh cloud their task at hand the next two weeks. Georgetown to be the first win at Fisher Field this year?

[letsgopards04]

That final drive against Colgate may be the turning point for the Pards. The offensive line pounded away and used up over 6 minutes of clock. The defense is finally played well. I think that getting a rare win against Colgate will propel the team forward and get them firing on all cylinders.

[carney2]

Georgetown to be the first win at Fisher Field this year?

If it isn't, that will be me engaged in sepuku (harakiri) at midfield in a post-game ceremony.:o I'd guess I'd better keep a sharp knife handy because Georgetown has given us fits for the past couple of years.

[DFW HOYA]

I'd guess I'd better keep a sharp knife handy because Georgetown has given us fits for the past couple of years.

If nothing else, the Hoyas are overdue for a couple of breaks along the way. Unfortunately, Tavani won't allow his team to take the game lightly.

[ngineer]

I think the Committee would look at which team would have the best chance of putting on a good show for the PL in the playoffs.

[Pards Rule]

I think the Committee would look at which team would have the best chance of putting on a good show for the PL in the playoffs.

Would that favor the Pards then?

[LUHawker]

Would that favor the Pards then?

How so? While everyone's OOC record, sans HC, is poor, LC doesn't have any good OOC wins.

[cosmo here]

How so? While everyone's OOC record, sans HC, is poor, LC doesn't have any good OOC wins.

we've proven we can go head-to-head with defending and eventual national championship teams the last two years, so maybe that counts for something. but hopefully it doesn't come down to that.

[LUHawker]

we've proven we can go head-to-head with defending and eventual national championship teams the last two years, so maybe that counts for something. but hopefully it doesn't come down to that.

I seriously don't think that the criteria will be from past years. If so, LC would be last on the list of CU, LU and LC, but ahead of HC. I state this because CU had a great run in '03, Lehigh has had multiple playoff victories as well as a 1 pt loss to champ JMU, but LC has never won I-AA playoff game. Not that LC didn't perform well, but if the past was the criteria, I just don't think that would help LC. Nonetheless, the PL is only getting one team in this year and probably gets shipped to one of the A-10 entrants, either UMass, JMU, or UNH. If Richmond makes the field and Lehigh makes the field, I could see Richmond at Lehigh, perhaps even Lafayette given the updated digs.

[Pards Rule]

I agree it will be one team

[Pard4Life]

If the PL hosts a playoff game this year... what a sham..

[Pards Rule]

Great if it was at Fisher Field BUT problem would be the game would be over Thanksgiving weekend...

[LUHawker]

If the PL hosts a playoff game this year... what a sham..

Why would that be a sham? The PL puts at least one team in the field every year and over than the top 4 seeding, there is no stipulation that higher rated teams play home games. It all depends on the bids, the other teams in the playoffs and the venues themselves. No sham at all.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Why would that be a sham? The PL puts at least one team in the field every year and over than the top 4 seeding, there is no stipulation that higher rated teams play home games. It all depends on the bids, the other teams in the playoffs and the venues themselves. No sham at all.

The odds are extremely low that a PL team would host especially when you consider JMU, Umass and Youngstown St. are all possible seeds and are within easy distance of HC, LU and LC. HC had the only chance prior to Saturday and even so it was widely believe they would have been in Amherst. If Lehigh gets in i see them playing either at JMU or Umass, maybe UNH. I would like them to play Youngstown State for someone different but they'll probably play a midwestern team. HC would be going to Amherst and Lafayette could be sent anywhere with 5 losses.

[LUHawker]

The odds are extremely low that a PL team would host especially when you consider JMU, Umass and Youngstown St. are all possible seeds and are within easy distance of HC, LU and LC. HC had the only chance prior to Saturday and even so it was widely believe they would have been in Amherst. If Lehigh gets in i see them playing either at JMU or Umass, maybe UNH. I would like them to play Youngstown State for someone different but they'll probably play a midwestern team. HC would be going to Amherst and Lafayette could be sent anywhere with 5 losses.

Sorry, but that is not how the venue is selected. As I wrote, it depends upon the bids for the rounds (who bids, who doesn't, and how much). The committee will also try to select schools where the gate take may be better, so you can't rule out PL teams because of overall record. Those three teams you mention probably have better attendance stats than LU, CU, LC or HC, so this year you may be correct, but if a UNH, for example, is in the field and not a seed, they will probably be on the road and could be at a PL school, particularly is the other 2 A-10 teams are hosting.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Not smack, just curious......What are the attendance figures like this year for Colgate, Lehigh and Lafayette.

if not for the monsoon this past Saturday, UNH would be averaging about 10K this year. And if they expected 10K last Saturday, then I'm guessing there will be at least that many this Saturday vs. UMass. Plus UMass will bring more fans than Hofstra, Richmond, JMU or Stony Brook.

With the strong possibility of some new faces in the playoffs this year who don't have the following of Delaware and Georgia Southern, I think the bid process will be very interesting and pretty wide open. But it's not something I'm concerned about until I see my Wildcats earn a berth! :nod:

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Not smack, just curious......What are the attendance figures like this year for Colgate, Lehigh and Lafayette.

if not for the monsoon this past Saturday, UNH would be averaging about 10K this year. And if they expected 10K last Saturday, then I'm guessing there will be at least that many this Saturday vs. UMass. Plus UMass will bring more fans than Hofstra, Richmond, JMU or Stony Brook.

With the strong possibility of some new faces in the playoffs this year who don't have the following of Delaware and Georgia Southern, I think the bid process will be very interesting and pretty wide open. But it's not something I'm concerned about until I see my Wildcats earn a berth! :nod:

Lehigh would be able to submit a strong bid and back it up. Their only chance to host would be against UNH but i still find it remote a 7-4 team would get a home game. With good weather Lehigh will 12+ against Colgate this weekend. The combo of Family Weekend(Lehigh's HC) and Colgate will bring out a big crowd. If Lehigh wins they'll hit 10k against Fordham the following weekend. Lehigh should be able to out adverage UNH for the year for whatever it's worth.

Lehigh's attendance
Albany 4326 Paid, about 2000 actual tropical storm Ernesto was in full force
Princeton 8867
Harvard 10680
Bucknell 10683

[ngineer]

The odds are extremely low that a PL team would host especially when you consider JMU, Umass and Youngstown St. are all possible seeds and are within easy distance of HC, LU and LC. HC had the only chance prior to Saturday and even so it was widely believe they would have been in Amherst. If Lehigh gets in i see them playing either at JMU or Umass, maybe UNH. I would like them to play Youngstown State for someone different but they'll probably play a midwestern team. HC would be going to Amherst and Lafayette could be sent anywhere with 5 losses.

Remember 2000 when Lehigh was sent packing to #4 Western Illinois, who we introduced to their woodshed...YSU would be change of pace and a great venue to play in; but I agree the PL rep will likely stay in the East (UMass, JMU, UNH, or Richmond)
However home field could still end up at Goodman if Lehigh makes it. Remember 2004. JMU was torqued up that they had to travel to Goodman; however, we do have a nice venue, we put up the bid money, and it's easily accessible (right off I-78).

[ngineer]

Not smack, just curious......What are the attendance figures like this year for Colgate, Lehigh and Lafayette.

if not for the monsoon this past Saturday, UNH would be averaging about 10K this year. And if they expected 10K last Saturday, then I'm guessing there will be at least that many this Saturday vs. UMass. Plus UMass will bring more fans than Hofstra, Richmond, JMU or Stony Brook.

With the strong possibility of some new faces in the playoffs this year who don't have the following of Delaware and Georgia Southern, I think the bid process will be very interesting and pretty wide open. But it's not something I'm concerned about until I see my Wildcats earn a berth! :nod:

Good point about some of the perennial powers with good travelers not being in the mix this year. The first playoff game is always tough attendance-wise because of the Thanksgiving Weekend effecting the turnout. It's a shame, but no way around it. I think if UNH or Richmond get in, either one could be sent to Lehigh--UNH came to LU (old Taylor stadium) back in 1975 in the D-II playoffs. Lehigh went to Richmond in 1998, and if I recall, the Spiders didn't have a very good showing in the stands.
If Lafayette made it, upgraded Fisher would be nice (though I haven't 'tested it' myself, yet, but the parking is difficult and location on College Hill not easy.
Nice to speculate on this stuff, but long way to go....

[carney2]

I know that it's about money, attendance and facilities and not performance, but the Patsy League ought to be denied a home game this year just on principle. It would be like moving the World Series to Pittsburgh just because they have a great stadium.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Fearless prediction: The PL champion will most likely be sent on the road, but will probably put in a bid (why not?) for a home game. You never know; some team may not wish a home game: it's happened before.

What teams are likely to host games at this point? Impossible to say. Too many questions with three games left.

If Youngstown can win their last two games, they are a good shot at a seed, and the PL champ looks like a good candidate to be shipped out there due to lack of other options. However, if they lose to Southern Illinois or WKU, they probably won't win the Gateway autobid and will probably not be seeded.

As for the A-10, they have two teams vying for a seed (JMU and UMass), but if New Hampshire beats UMass this weekend, the picture clouds up. If JMU is seeded, it could be a better choice to take a different regional team (e.g. Hampton) to visit them rather than a Lehigh, Lafayette, Colgate or Holy Cross.

And what if a team like Maine and/or Towson wins out and gets an at-large bid? Both are most likely not going to host. Will the committee make them fly to Boone, or play a more local game? In my mind, two or three A-10 teams will most likely host. At least one will be sent on the road, if not two.

Finally, you can't discount the possibility that an 8-3 Holy Cross team, even if they don't win the PL, COULD get a shot as an at-large team if there are a lot of teams sitting at 7-4.

Picture this 11/18 scenario. San Diego and Chuck South go undefeated (meaning Coastal loses to Chuck South). The Gateway is a mess, and gets 3 schools above 7-4. Similarly, the A-10 can only get 3 schools above 7-4. Montana beats Montana State for the Big Sky title - no at-large bids fromthe Big Sky. Furman slips in two weeks at Georgia Southern, falling to 7-4 and making App St. the autobid. Finally, Cal Poly loses to Montana and North Dakota State, putting them at 7-4.

Who do you take as at-larges?

Autobids: App St., Southland Winner, PL Winner, Hampton, Montana, Gateway Winner, UMass, Tenn-Martin

Solid At-Larges: 2 A-10 teams, 2 Gateway teams, 0 Big Sky or SoCon teams (since all are at 7-4), 0 Southland teams (none eligible), 0 Great West teams.

Last At-larges: At most 1 OVC team (the EIU/Tennessee State winner), at most 1 MEAC team (Delaware State, if they win out) + 2 more.

In this "thermonuclear" scenario, there's still at most four at-large spots, more likely two. Where will they come from? I say if it comes between San Diego and Chuck South (barely at 7-D-I wins) or Holy Cross (8-3), the 'Cross gets the at-large easily. Even allowing for the Gateway or A-10 getting 4 teams in it's still not out of the realm of possibility.

[Pard4Life]

Lafayette attendance has been mediocre this year.. as usual...

Penn.. about 8,000
Yale... about 5,000
Holy Cross... about 8,000
G'town... likely 4,000-5,000
Lehigh... 14,000 sell-out


And Holy Cross probably averages 3-4,000... no chance there really..

[Pard4Life]

Fearless prediction: The PL champion will most likely be sent on the road, but will probably put in a bid (why not?) for a home game. You never know; some team may not wish a home game: it's happened before.

What teams are likely to host games at this point? Impossible to say. Too many questions with three games left.

If Youngstown can win their last two games, they are a good shot at a seed, and the PL champ looks like a good candidate to be shipped out there due to lack of other options. However, if they lose to Southern Illinois or WKU, they probably won't win the Gateway autobid and will probably not be seeded.

As for the A-10, they have two teams vying for a seed (JMU and UMass), but if New Hampshire beats UMass this weekend, the picture clouds up. If JMU is seeded, it could be a better choice to take a different regional team (e.g. Hampton) to visit them rather than a Lehigh, Lafayette, Colgate or Holy Cross.

And what if a team like Maine and/or Towson wins out and gets an at-large bid? Both are most likely not going to host. Will the committee make them fly to Boone, or play a more local game? In my mind, two or three A-10 teams will most likely host. At least one will be sent on the road, if not two.

Finally, you can't discount the possibility that an 8-3 Holy Cross team, even if they don't win the PL, COULD get a shot as an at-large team if there are a lot of teams sitting at 7-4.

Picture this 11/18 scenario. San Diego and Chuck South go undefeated (meaning Coastal loses to Chuck South). The Gateway is a mess, and gets 3 schools above 7-4. Similarly, the A-10 can only get 3 schools above 7-4. Montana beats Montana State for the Big Sky title - no at-large bids fromthe Big Sky. Furman slips in two weeks at Georgia Southern, falling to 7-4 and making App St. the autobid. Finally, Cal Poly loses to Montana and North Dakota State, putting them at 7-4.

Who do you take as at-larges?

Autobids: App St., Southland Winner, PL Winner, Hampton, Montana, Gateway Winner, UMass, Tenn-Martin

Solid At-Larges: 2 A-10 teams, 2 Gateway teams, 0 Big Sky or SoCon teams (since all are at 7-4), 0 Southland teams (none eligible), 0 Great West teams.

Last At-larges: At most 1 OVC team (the EIU/Tennessee State winner), at most 1 MEAC team (Delaware State, if they win out) + 2 more.

In this "thermonuclear" scenario, there's still at most four at-large spots, more likely two. Where will they come from? I say if it comes between San Diego and Chuck South (barely at 7-D-I wins) or Holy Cross (8-3), the 'Cross gets the at-large easily. Even allowing for the Gateway or A-10 getting 4 teams in it's still not out of the realm of possibility.

I really do not see how an 8-3, non-champion Holy Cross gets a bid. True the 8 win rule is in effect and there is still an outside chance such a scenario can happen... but what does that say about the committee and selection criteria? There is a serious problem if 8-3 HC gets in and Furman, Cal Poly are left out at 7-4. They have played tough schedules from week to week, even with some IA losses in there... something would have to be done if it happens...

[Lehigh Football Nation]

I really do not see how an 8-3, non-champion Holy Cross gets a bid. True the 8 win rule is in effect and there is still an outside chance such a scenario can happen... but what does that say about the committee and selection criteria? There is a serious problem if 8-3 HC gets in and Furman, Cal Poly are left out at 7-4. They have played tough schedules from week to week, even with some IA losses in there... something would have to be done if it happens...

Furman and Cal Poly would not make it at 7-4 since they wouldn't have 7 D-I wins. Both have a D-II win on their schedules. So there's no "serious problem" Holy Cross played by the rules, while Furman and Cal Poly scheduled a certain way and lost... :twocents:

[JMU2K_DukeDawg]

Plus UMass will bring more fans than Hofstra, Richmond, JMU or Stony Brook.

Not so fast!

Through 4 home games each:

Umass - 12,134 avg. attendance, 71% capacity

JMU - 14,880 avg. attndance, 106% capacity

Yes, UMass has a larger capacity, but don't equate that with fan support :nod:

Plus, I think our admin. now understands the power of the bid after having to go to Lehigh in 2004. We should be hosting at least the 1st round if we make it this year. :twocents:

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Not so fast!

Through 4 home games each:

Umass - 12,134 avg. attendance, 71% capacity

JMU - 14,880 avg. attndance, 106% capacity

Yes, UMass has a larger capacity, but don't equate that with fan support :nod:

Plus, I think our admin. now understands the power of the bid after having to go to Lehigh in 2004. We should be hosting at least the 1st round if we make it this year. :twocents:

JMU has a good shot at being seeded. Obviously if you are, then you don't have to worry about hosting. :twocents:

[MU Alum]

Furman and Cal Poly would not make it at 7-4 since they wouldn't have 7 D-I wins. Both have a D-II win on their schedules. So there's no "serious problem" Holy Cross played by the rules, while Furman and Cal Poly scheduled a certain way and lost... :twocents:

Monmouth has a better playoff resume than Holy Cross. If they both win out H.C. will have 8 wins, MU 10 wins. Monmouth cruised against Fordham while Holy Cross struggled. Monmouth also has to go up to Albany the last game of the year, and if they win that game, they are more deserving than Holy Cross. Holy Cross just got handled by Lehigh this weekend, a team Albany beat. Also if Monmouth can win out, they are as deserving as most teams out there.

[Lehigh Football Nation]

Monmouth has a better playoff resume than Holy Cross. If they both win out H.C. will have 8 wins, MU 10 wins. Monmouth cruised against Fordham while Holy Cross struggled. Monmouth also has to go up to Albany the last game of the year, and if they win that game, they are more deserving than Holy Cross. Holy Cross just got handled by Lehigh this weekend, a team Albany beat. Also if Monmouth can win out, they are as deserving as most teams out there.

You're right. They are already guaranteed 8 D-I wins. I don't know if they deserve to be ranked ahead of Holy Cross yet, but wins over Colgate, CCSU and (if they beat) Albany I agree they deserve consideration over San Diego and Chuck South.

FWIW Monmouth and Holy Cross are TIED in the GPI at #49. I think it's best to say that they are just about equal in terms of postseason consideration right now....

This of course weakens Chuck South and San Diego's chances even further of making the field.

[Go...gate]

Colgate drew 2,010 for Lafayette - very, very disappointing, even given the weather conditions.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

Not so fast!

Through 4 home games each:

Umass - 12,134 avg. attendance, 71% capacity

JMU - 14,880 avg. attndance, 106% capacity

Yes, UMass has a larger capacity, but don't equate that with fan support :nod:

Plus, I think our admin. now understands the power of the bid after having to go to Lehigh in 2004. We should be hosting at least the 1st round if we make it this year. :twocents:

What is it with JMU fans? Do you go out of your way to read posts in a way to conjure up some slight of your team/fans? :confused: My comment was about visiting fans coming to Durham, not how many go to home games at JMU or UMass. And it was meant to reinforce the idea that UNH will have very good attendance this Saturday. :rolleyes:

Amherst is SIGNIFICANTLY closer to Durham than Harrisonburg. The vast majority of the Massachusetts population lives within probably an hour and a half of Durham, two hours max. UMass is having an excellent season. UMass-UNH is a huge rivalry game. It is logical that many more UMass fans will come to Durham. Just like it is logical that many more Richmond or W&M fans would come to JMU than fans from Maine, UNH or UMass. This in no way is a slam toward the support JMU gets!

For the record, JMU had an impressive group in Durham this year. Especially compared to the previous JMU game at UNH (2003 IIRC).

I hesitated before I typed my post and really thought about it. But I settled in on the opinion I posted. BTW, UMass has purchased their entire allotment of tickets. I can't recall the last time this was announced. And with the easy drive, I'm sure many will come up and buy tickets on game day.