Your Playoff Field As Of 10/29/06

[JMU Duke Dog]

Please post what you think the playoff field is going to be. Here is mine...


Atlantic 10 – Massachusetts
Big Sky – Montana
Gateway – Youngstown State
MEAC – Hampton
Ohio Valley – Tennessee-Martin
Patriot – Lehigh
Southern – Appalachian State
Southland – McNeese State

At-Large (in no particular order of getting in) – Cal Poly, Furman, Illinois State, James Madison, Montana State, New Hampshire, Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois/Western Kentucky, San Diego


Tennesse-Martin at #1 Appalachian State
Furman at McNeese State

Hampton at #4 James Madison
Lehigh at Youngstown State


San Diego at #2 Montana
Montana State at Cal Poly

Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois/Western Kentucky at #3 Massachusetts
New Hampshire at Illinois State

[Chi Panther]

Don't put UNI up there as a Playoff team.....

Although I may be extremely frustrated as I post this, but Farley has a track record of making the playoffs and missing the next year that goes back to 2001.....

This team has soo much talent but no consistency......I'm not mad about this game against WIU as we got BEAT....BAD.

But UND and Iowa State really hurt.....we don't have the intensity or maturity this year....

Considering we return 18 starters next year.....Farley's Playoff streak should remain intact......

[griz37]

You have Montana winning the Big Sky, which means MSU would finish 7-4. (Barring UNC shocking either team.) Do you think a 9-2 Coastal would get left out in favor of the 7-4 Cats?

[KiddBrewer]

Be interesting if app got to play James Madison and Furman both twice at home in the same year....

[galojay]

Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois winner? What about WKU, who beat SIU and currently only one Gateway loss, versus Illinois State (1pt loss).

[Appstate29]

please send USD to Boone.

[JMU Duke Dog]

You have Montana winning the Big Sky, which means MSU would finish 7-4. (Barring UNC shocking either team.) Do you think a 9-2 Coastal would get left out in favor of the 7-4 Cats?

I don't think a 9-2 Coastal Carolina gets into the playoffs; however, if this is the year an undefeated San Diego gets into the playoffs then who knows!

[JMU Duke Dog]

Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois winner? What about WKU, who beat SIU and currently only one Gateway loss, versus Illinois State (1pt loss).

I just think Western Kentucky has the most difficult remaining schedule left with an away game at Northern Iowa and then hosting Youngstown State. :twocents:

[griz37]

please send USD to Boone.

If USD gets into the playoffs they are the property of the Griz nation for 3.5 hours on 11/25. :D

[JMU Duke Dog]

Northern Iowa/Southern Illinois winner? What about WKU, who beat SIU and currently only one Gateway loss, versus Illinois State (1pt loss).

There are too many Gateway games to keep up with! xlolx :o

I just saw that Western Kentucky beat Southern Illinois and that Southern Illinois still also has to face both Northern Iowa and Youngstown State as well. It will be whoever finishes in third place in the Gateway that will have the trip to Massachusetts.

[danefan]

If USD gets into the playoffs they are the property of the Griz nation for 3.5 hours on 11/25. :D


TV GODS....PLEASE PUT THAT ON NATIONAL TV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JMU Duke Dog]

No one else will to post their prediction? :flagged:

[gobucknell06]

:twocents: My two cents...

Autobids

1. UMass
2. Montana
3. Illinois St
4. Hampton
5. Tn-Martin
6. Lehigh
7. App St xsmileyclapx
8. McNeese St

At-Large
1. Cal Poly
2. JMU
3. UNH
4. Youngstown St
5. N. Iowa
6. Furman :eyebrow:
7. Coastal Carolina :eyebrow:
8. San Diego :eyebrow:

[PantherRob82]

UNI still has WKU, @SIU, Il St. Toughest remaining schedule.

[slostang]

Cal Poly still has to very tough games ahead when they visit Montana in Wash/Griz stadium and North Dakota State in the FargoDome, two of the tougher places to pick up a win. There is a chance that the Mustangs may lose both and knock themselves out of the playoffs. My question is if the Mustangs win the next two and win at home against Savanah State to finish 9-2, do they get a top four seed? They would have road wins over #2/3 Montana, #6 NDSU and I-A San Diego State and a home win against a ranked UC Davis team. The Mustangs also boast one of the top defenses in I-AA. Their only losses would be a 10 point loss to a 5-2 I-A San Jose State team and a one point loss to a surging South Dakota State team. What do you think?

[grayghost06]

I would have to say yes. I thought we had a tough schedule w/ App, UNH, & Richmond, but yours is a monster. You should be rewarded for navigating through those teams if you can beat UM and NDSU.

[JMU_MRD'03-'07]

Be interesting if app got to play James Madison and Furman both twice at home in the same year....

I know its probably not going to happen unless there is a huge upset, but I want to see App make the trip up into the Valley. I made the trip into the mountains already and want to return the tailgating favor!

[Umass74]

FWIW, I think JMU will run the table on the rest of their schedule.

[th0m]

I hope you are right. :)

I don't know if Maine showed their colors yesterday against URI, but if so, then you have a pretty good chance as well, although Maine, UNH and Hofstra is on paper a tougher stretch than Delaware, Villanova and Towson...

We'll see! I'm glad to be 7-1 right now. Every game won takes a bit of pressure off.

[pantherclaw]

:twocents: My two cents...

Autobids

1. UMass
2. Montana
3. Illinois St
4. Hampton
5. Tn-Martin
6. Lehigh
7. App St xsmileyclapx
8. McNeese St

At-Large
1. Cal Poly
2. JMU
3. UNH
4. Youngstown St
5. N. Iowa
6. Furman :eyebrow:
7. Coastal Carolina :eyebrow:
8. San Diego :eyebrow:

Autos:
UMASS(2)
Montana(3)
ILSU
Hampton
Tn-Martin
Lehigh
App St(1)
McNeese St

At-Large
1. Cal Poly
2. JMU(4)
3. UNH
4. Youngstown St
5. N. Iowa
6. Furman
7. Coastal Carolina
8. Southern Illinois

[umassfan]

Autos:
UMASS(3)
Montana(4)
ILSU(2)
Hampton
Tn-Martin
Lehigh
App St(1)
McNeese St

At-Large
1. Cal Poly
2. JMU
3. UNH
4. Youngstown St
5. N. Iowa
6. Furman
7. Coastal Carolina
8. Southern Illinois
With ISUs loss yesterday, they are no longer one of the top 2 seeds.

[Go Apps]

Here you go..

#1 ASU/Coastal
Tenn-Martin host Layfayette

#4 JMU/Hampton
Furman host Towson

#2 Montana/McNeese St
Ill St host Cal Poly

#3 Young St/N. Hamp
MASS host S. ILL

Left out are...San Diego, SDakSt, Mont St, Maine, Richmond, WKU, N. Iowa, Port St, UC Davis

[RabidRabbit]

Cal Poly still has to very tough games ahead when they visit Montana in Wash/Griz stadium and North Dakota State in the FargoDome, two of the tougher places to pick up a win. There is a chance that the Mustangs may lose both and knock themselves out of the playoffs. My question is if the Mustangs win the next two and win at home against Savanah State to finish 9-2, do they get a top four seed? They would have road wins over #2/3 Montana, #6 NDSU and I-A San Diego State and a home win against a ranked UC Davis team. The Mustangs also boast one of the top defenses in I-AA. Their only losses would be a 10 point loss to a 5-2 I-A San Jose State team and a one point loss to a surging South Dakota State team. What do you think?

IF (HUGE 2 LETTER WORD) Poly succeeds as above, Poly should be a top four seed, AND GET TO HOST #4 of west (SLC champ or USD). If USD, that's VERY appropriate as would shaft fellow GWFC member UCD of an easy win.:twocents:

[FargoBison]

Here you go..

#1 ASU/Coastal
Tenn-Martin host Layfayette

#4 JMU/Hampton
Furman host Towson

#2 Montana/McNeese St
Ill St host Cal Poly

#3 Young St/N. Hamp
MASS host S. ILL

Left out are...San Diego, Mont St, Maine, Richmond, WKU, N. Iowa, Port St, SDSU, UCD

SDSU and UCD can't make the playoffs so they can't be left out.

[RabidRabbit]

If Poly goes 8-3, and only lose to NDSU from here out, still should be a top four seed. UMASS (if win out), App St, and Gateway Champ other three.

[RabidRabbit]

Here you go..

#1 ASU/Coastal
Tenn-Martin host Layfayette

#4 JMU/Hampton
Furman host Towson

#2 Montana/McNeese St
Ill St host Cal Poly

#3 Young St/N. Hamp
MASS host S. ILL

Left out are...San Diego, SDakSt, Mont St, Maine, Richmond, WKU, N. Iowa, Port St, UC Davis

NDSU/ SDSU/ UC Davis are all transitional, and not play-off eligible.

[JMU_MRD'03-'07]

What are the chances of two A10 teams getting seeds?
If UMass and JMU run the table they'll only have two losses between them, to the #1 I-AA team App St. and I-A Navy. UMass would get the auto due to more DI wins, but JMU would have wins against #1 (UNH), #13 (UR) and another possibly ranked team in Towson (just a possibility). I believe that both these teams would be deserving of seeds. Two 10-1 teams from one conference... what a time that'd be!

[umassfan]

What are the chances of two A10 teams getting seeds?
If UMass and JMU run the table they'll only have two losses between them, to the #1 I-AA team App St. and I-A Navy. UMass would get the auto due to more DI wins, but JMU would have wins against #1 (UNH), #13 (UR) and another possibly ranked team in Towson (just a possibility). I believe that both these teams would be deserving of seeds. Two 10-1 teams from one conference... what a time that'd be!
If UMass wins out we would have wins over the same UNH team, ranked Maine, ranked Towson. Also we wouldnt have a I-AA loss. I see UMass getting the seed before JMU.

[umassfan]

Here you go..

#1 ASU/Coastal
Tenn-Martin host Layfayette

#4 JMU/Hampton
Furman host Towson

#2 Montana/McNeese St
Ill St host Cal Poly

#3 Young St/N. Hamp
MASS host S. ILL

Left out are...San Diego, SDakSt, Mont St, Maine, Richmond, WKU, N. Iowa, Port St, UC Davis
So as of right now UMass is in control of the Auto bid but you have JMU getting a seed over them. YSU also has I-AA losses where UMass doesnt. I dont see it happening like you state. Also currently Lehigh is in the drivers seat for the Pat League auto.

[th0m]

Yeah it kind of looks weird...

Eligible teams with only 1 loss in the top 25:
#1 ASU
#3 Montana
#4 UMass
#5 JMU
#14 Tenn-Martin
#20 Hampton

Question will be, does the committee award a seed to a conference champion that has a worse record than an at-large team that has its conference champion already seeded?

[etiger]

Towson University has a stong chance to make the playoffs. We are 6-2 right now, and we play William nad Mary this week, Richmond next week and JMU the week after. If we win out, we are 9-2 and 6-2 in A-10.
We should be considered!

[blur2005]

If UMass wins out we would have wins over the same UNH team, ranked Maine, ranked Towson. Also we wouldnt have a I-AA loss. I see UMass getting the seed before JMU.
If both win out, they'll both get seeds just because of everyone else beating up on each other. If this occurs, the seeds will be App State, UMass, Montana, and JMU, each 10-1 and each undefeated in conference play.

[blur2005]

Towson University has a stong chance to make the playoffs. We are 6-2 right now, and we play William nad Mary this week, Richmond next week and JMU the week after. If we win out, we are 9-2 and 6-2 in A-10.
We should be considered!
Well, yes, if Towson goes 9-2, they're in. If Towson were to go 8-3 (5-3), it would be interesting to see if the Tigers could grab a bid.

[UNH_Alum_In_CT]

What are the chances of two A10 teams getting seeds?


Didn't Furman and Georgia Southern from the SoCon both get seeds in 2004? Precedence has already been set so there's no reason why it can't happen again. Of course, I'm of the school of thought that the more you talk about it, the less likely it is to occur.

[JMU_MRD'03-'07]

If UMass wins out we would have wins over the same UNH team, ranked Maine, ranked Towson. Also we wouldnt have a I-AA loss. I see UMass getting the seed before JMU.

I agree, but I also see JMU as filling the bill for a seeded team. Just asking what the thoughts were.
We'll have to see who actually does win out though! :cool:

[JMU_MRD'03-'07]

Towson University has a stong chance to make the playoffs. We are 6-2 right now, and we play William nad Mary this week, Richmond next week and JMU the week after. If we win out, we are 9-2 and 6-2 in A-10.
We should be considered!

Very very true. Towson is the hardest team left on our schedule. I'm hoping that the Dukes are still up to the task in the last week of the year!
It should be a very important game for both teams.

[th0m]

Towson University has a stong chance to make the playoffs. We are 6-2 right now, and we play William nad Mary this week, Richmond next week and JMU the week after. If we win out, we are 9-2 and 6-2 in A-10.
We should be considered!

Towson is definitely in a better shape than Richmond to make the play-offs.

How about this scenario:

Richmond runs the table, beating 'Nova, Towson and W&M, finishing 8-3 (5-3 conf). Towson beats W&M, loses to Richmond and beats JMU, and also finishes 8-3 (5-3 conf too). Now, Richmond will have the head to head record against Towson, as well as a Duke win. But Towson will have #4ish JMU win. Who goes?

I'd have to say Richmond, but who knows? Towson is still in pretty good shape, but will need to win 2 of their 3 games which is no easy task.

[pantherclaw]

With ISUs loss yesterday, they are no longer one of the top 2 seeds.

yeah, fixed that error, thanks.

[Saint3333]

Autobids:
A-10 – UMass (3)
Big Sky – Montana (2)
Gateway – ISU (4)
MEAC – Hampton
OVC – Tenn. Martin
Patriot – Lehigh
Southern – ASU (1)
Southland - McNeese
At Larges:
JMU (5) - could flip with ISU for the 4 seed
UNH
Towson (they beat Richmond)
YSU (6)
SIU
Cal Poly (must beat either Montana or ND St. though) (7)
Furman (8)
CCU (try not to screw up again)

CCU @ ASU
Tenn. Martin @ Furman
Hampton @ JMU
Towson @ ISU
McNeese @ Montana
SIU @ Cal Poly
Lehigh @ UMass
UNH @ YSU

[th0m]

There are only 4 seeds if I recall correctly.

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

If somehow Lehigh makes it i would like to see them play either Umass or YSU. Not that i think they'd have a particulary great chance to win but i think they could battle those teams. A trip to YSU would be pretty cool. The Penguins are one team i wish Lehigh would try harder to get a home and home with.

[th0m]

Lehigh can come to JMU too, you know ;)

[Go Lehigh TU Owl]

Lehigh can come to JMU too, you know ;)

There would deffinately be a little revenge factor from the '04 game but i think JMU is really strong this year, especially at home. Plus it's along ride down 81 from Clarks Summit, PA should there be a reason to consider a trip. Either way the playoffs and Lehigh in the same breath still are a long long ways off considering the Hawks are still at 4-4 and they've yet to beat Colgate and Lafayette.

[BDKJMU]

With the new polls out tomorrow the top 5 with ILL State's loss will be:
1. App State
2. Montana
3. UMass
4. JMU
5. North Dakota State

I didn't know that NDSU isn't eligible for the playoffs. Wow. If JMU and UMass both win out, something which is still unlikely because with 3 A-10 games each still to play, one of them is bound to be upset in one of those 6 games, even though they'll both be favored in all. Depending on if Montana wins out, that would leave UMass and JMU at either #3 and #4, or #2 and #3. No team has gone 8-0 in the A-10 since UNH in 94'. Any team that does that and finishes 10-1 would get a seed IMHO. Like someone said, the precedent of 2 teams from one conference getting a seed has already been set, and I could't see one or two of the 2 loss autobids leaping over JMU for the for the last one or two seeds. Yes, JMU's loss wasn't to a IA, but App State is as good as as least a third of the 119 or how ever many there are IAs. Yes, JMU has a (ugly 14-3) win over DII Bloomsburg, but Bloomsburg is currently 7-1 and last week's D-II poll had them #6, and they would beat ALOT of IAAs, and that should be given as much credit as beating a lesser (esp non or partial schlorship) IAA.

[FlyYtown]

I do want to say this much: The only way ILSU gets the auto-bid in the Gateway is by this: Remember: a tiebreaker in the conference would give YSU the nod.

1) Youngstown State must lose 1 of their final 2 games....
They have SIU and WKU remaining...

2) Northern Iowa loses 1 of their final 3 games..
They have SIU-WKU-ILSU all left.

3) Illinois State wins out...

Regardless: YSU and ILSU will likely be the 2 reps of the Gateway with one of the other 3 getting a 3rd playoff spot.

GO GUINS..
Let's finish 2-0 and try for the HOME SEED!

[KawKaw]

Everyone may laugh when I say this, but you better watch the Lafayette Leopards............I see them running the table and getting the automatic bid, mark my word, The LEOPARDS are the DARK HORSE

[FlyYtown]

Everyone may laugh when I say this, but you better watch the Lafayette Leopards............I see them running the table and getting the automatic bid, mark my word, The LEOPARDS are the DARK HORSE

LOL I am trying to be on my best behavior right now, but c-mon..... the auto-bid of the Patriot League????

You guys have 3 WINS!!!
You guys have 5 LOSSES!!!

Please inform me of how you get into the playoffs with 3 games remaining??? 6-5 will get NOONE in the playoffs.. PERIOD!

Lehigh is well on their way to winning the Patriot.

[th0m]

LOL I am trying to be on my best behavior right now, but c-mon..... the auto-bid of the Patriot League????

You guys have 3 WINS!!!
You guys have 5 LOSSES!!!

Please inform me of how you get into the playoffs with 3 games remaining??? 6-5 will get NOONE in the playoffs.. PERIOD!

Lehigh is well on their way to winning the Patriot.

It's definitely not impossible. If they win the Patriot auto-bid, they're in. Lehigh is 3-0 in conference, Lafayette 2-1. Still 3 conference games to go...

[KawKaw]

if we win out, which means beating lehigh, and holy cross loses again, which will make them have 2 losses and us and lehigh with 1, we would hold the tiebreaker over lehigh and you will see us in the playoffs....and you have to admit, the past two years, we have given one of the top teams trouble, we just couldnt pull it out.................

[cosmo here]

LOL I am trying to be on my best behavior right now, but c-mon..... the auto-bid of the Patriot League????

You guys have 3 WINS!!!
You guys have 5 LOSSES!!!

Please inform me of how you get into the playoffs with 3 games remaining??? 6-5 will get NOONE in the playoffs.. PERIOD!

Lehigh is well on their way to winning the Patriot.

hey jackass . . you don't need seven DI wins if you win the autobid . . as mentioned, if Lafayette wins out they have the tiebreaker over Colgate and Lehigh . . if HC loses once more (Bucknell and Colgate left), Lafayette gets the autobid.

[ronpayne]

There are only 4 seeds if I recall correctly.
Correct! They only seed the top 4, and the other home games are determined based on geography (limit the distance teams have to travel early on), ability to draw a crowd, etc.

[Mountaineer#96]

Thats why if both Coastal and San Diego make it in.........CCU is coming up to us at Kidd Brewer AKA "The Rock" hopefully for a repeat of last year and Montana will deal with San Diego. Hey Grizz help them understand running with the big boys can get you hurt. I hope it is on TV too.

[Jim Harbaugh Fan Club]

We don't care where we go, Montana or to the freaking east coast, just let us in we deserve it. You will all be surprised at how well San Diego does against the big dogs. I am not saying we will win, but we will put up a good fight.

GO TOREROS!!!!!!!

[LeopardFan04]

hey jackass . . you don't need seven DI wins if you win the autobid . . as mentioned, if Lafayette wins out they have the tiebreaker over Colgate and Lehigh . . if HC loses once more (Bucknell and Colgate left), Lafayette gets the autobid.


xlolx

Seriously though, this isn't that farfetched...although anything can happen (and has this year), Colgate beating HC isn't a huge stretch in my opinion, and the Leopards need to beat Fordham, Gtown, and Lehigh...definitely not impossible...and if we get in at 6-5 I will great appreciate any contest with anyone in the playoffs...even if it means getting blown out at Amherst...

[ngineer]

There would deffinately be a little revenge factor from the '04 game but i think JMU is really strong this year, especially at home. Plus it's along ride down 81 from Clarks Summit, PA should there be a reason to consider a trip. Either way the playoffs and Lehigh in the same breath still are a long long ways off considering the Hawks are still at 4-4 and they've yet to beat Colgate and Lafayette.

I disagree. I'd love to see us go to JMU. Not a bad drive at all. about 4-5 hours from the Lehigh Valley--and weather likely not as harsh as Massachusetts or Youngstown. I do agree it's way too early to seriously discuss this stuff. Just dreams right now--but it's good that we CAN dream at this point in the season..:nod:

[slostang]

We don't care where we go, Montana or to the freaking east coast, just let us in we deserve it. You will all be surprised at how well San Diego does against the big dogs. I am not saying we will win, but we will put up a good fight.

GO TOREROS!!!!!!!
You want in, schedule better. You will get no sympathy from me. Cal Poly has gone 10-1 with a I-A win and 9-2 against a far tougher schedule than the USD has ever thought of scheduling and got denied. NCAA said Cal Poly's scheduled was to soft and every team they played was offered scholarships. Can USD say that? Another reason you get no sympathy from me is Cal Poly needed a home game and tried to get a game with USD. USD answer was their schedule was tough enough with Yale and UC Davis on the schedule and they turned it down. You did it to yourselves. Live with it.

[Tribe4SF]

At this point.

Auto-bids:

Massachusetts
Appy State
Younngstown State
Montana
Tennessee-Martin
Hampton
Lehigh
Someone from the once great Southland

At Large:

James Madison
Illinois State
Cal Poly
New Hampshire
Portland State (The shocker at 7-4 on strength of schedule)
Richmond
Furman
Coastal Carolina

Seeds:

1. Massachusetts
2. Appy State
3. Montana
4. YSU


First round:

(Upper)
Lehigh @ Umass
Hampton @ James Madison

UNH @ YSU
Tenn.-Martin @ Illinois State

(Lower)
Coastal Carolina @ ASU
Richmond @ Furman

Southland @ Montana
Portland State @ Cal Poly

[Tribe4SF]

You want in, schedule better. You will get no sympathy from me. Cal Poly has gone 10-1 with a I-A win and 9-2 against a far tougher schedule than the USD has ever thought of scheduling and got denied. NCAA said Cal Poly's scheduled was to soft and every team they played was offered scholarships. Can USD say that? Another reason you get no sympathy from me is Cal Poly needed a home game and tried to get a game with USD. USD answer was their schedule was tough enough with Yale and UC Davis on the schedule and they turned it down. You did it to yourselves. Live with it.

Agreed. USD will only have played 10 games, with 8 Div. I wins...none of them over an auto-bid conference team. Scheduling Azuza Pacific and Dixie State sealed their fate. Portland State will be far more deserving at 7-4.

[GoAgs72]

USD's schedule is definitely too soft but Portland State is shooting themselves in the foot with both hotshot DI-A's like Oregon as well as the Big Sky. They should have substituted an easy DI-AA team for one of the I-A's. As it is, I don't see them in the playoffs but I don't see USD either.

[Tribe4SF]

Any other year and PSU would have been out of it at this point. I think the committee comes down to a very tough decision, and takes a second Big Sky team over a number of marginal candidates such as Delaware State, Charleston Southern and San Diego as well as a third team from the Gateway at 7-4. There just aren't going to be enough quality teams at 8-3 or better this year.

[cosmo here]

xlolx

Seriously though, this isn't that farfetched...although anything can happen (and has this year), Colgate beating HC isn't a huge stretch in my opinion, and the Leopards need to beat Fordham, Gtown, and Lehigh...definitely not impossible...and if we get in at 6-5 I will great appreciate any contest with anyone in the playoffs...even if it means getting blown out at Amherst...

:D

I don't care if they think we stole their playoff spot or not . . you can't be that ignorant of how the playoff system works to think they wouldn't let a 6-5 automatic bid team in.

[GGASU]

You want in, schedule better. You will get no sympathy from me. Cal Poly has gone 10-1 with a I-A win and 9-2 against a far tougher schedule than the USD has ever thought of scheduling and got denied. NCAA said Cal Poly's scheduled was to soft and every team they played was offered scholarships. Can USD say that? Another reason you get no sympathy from me is Cal Poly needed a home game and tried to get a game with USD. USD answer was their schedule was tough enough with Yale and UC Davis on the schedule and they turned it down. You did it to yourselves. Live with it.

Were you playoff eligible in 1997 when you went 10-1? If you were that was just terrible.

[LegacyDuke08]

FWIW, I think JMU will run the table on the rest of their schedule.

I will agree after UD....they always give us trouble no matter how well or bad they are doing. We can only hope that Umass losses to UNH or Maine. If we both win out we are co-Champions right?

[th0m]

We will be co-champs, but won't receive the auto-bid due to our Div. II game, I think.

[BillLuc1982]

I will be at the UD-JMU game this weekend!

[slostang]

Were you playoff eligible in 1997 when you went 10-1? If you were that was just terrible.
Yes we were. In all fairness, we had a few DII teams on the schedule and had a soft schedule. That is my point. You schedule soft, do not cry when you get left out. I was not too upset in '97, but was when we were left out in 2004 at 9-2 iwith a schedule that USD would get killed against.

[PurpleandGold]

playoff picture as I see it, as of 10/30

Auto-bids:
A10: UMass, 10-1, 8-0
BSC: Montana, 10-1, 8-0
GFC: W. Kentucky, 8-3, 6-1 :eek:
OVC: Tenn-Martin, 10-1, 7-0
MEAC: Hampton, 10-1, 7-1
PL: Lehigh, 7-4, 6-0
SC: Appalachain State, 10-1, 7-0
SLC: McNeese State, 7-4, 5-1

At-large:
JMU(A10), 10-1, 8-0
Youngstown State(GFC), 8-3, 5-2
S. Illinois(GFC), 8-3, 4-3
UNH(A10), 8-3, 5-3
Richmond(A10), 8-3, 5-3
Furman(SC), 8-3, 6-1
Coastal Carolina, 9-2, 4-0 :eyebrow:
Portland State(BSC), 7-4, 6-2

Seeds:
1. App State
2. Montana
3. UMass
4. JMU xsmileyclapx

[Jack33]

How are the At-Large berths determined. Is there a definitive criteria? How does it work?

[Khan4Cats]

What the heck, have to do a first post some time:

Auto: Montana, Appy St, UMass, UNI, Hampton, UT-Martin, Holy Cross, someone (eventually) from the Southland
Seeds: #1 Montana, #2 Appy St., #3 UMass, #4 Youngstown

Playoffs:
Southland survivor @ Montana
New Hampshire @ UT-Martin
E. Illinois @ Youngstown St.
Richmond @ Hampton
Holy Cross @ UMass
Furman @ Illinois St.
UNI @ Appy St.
Charleston So. @ JMU

[Dane96]

Just curious as to why you have UNH at UT-Martin. I would think UNH gets this game.

Further...CHARLESTON SO. is not getting in IMHO.

[shakdaddy3]

playoff picture as I see it, as of 10/30

Auto-bids:
A10: UMass, 10-1, 8-0
BSC: Montana, 10-1, 8-0
GFC: W. Kentucky, 8-3, 6-1 :eek:
OVC: Tenn-Martin, 10-1, 7-0
MEAC: Hampton, 10-1, 7-1
PL: Lehigh, 7-4, 6-0
SC: Appalachain State, 10-1, 7-0
SLC: McNeese State, 7-4, 5-1

At-large:
JMU(A10), 10-1, 8-0
Youngstown State(GFC), 8-3, 5-2
S. Illinois(GFC), 8-3, 4-3
UNH(A10), 8-3, 5-3
Richmond(A10), 8-3, 5-3
Furman(SC), 8-3, 6-1
Coastal Carolina, 9-2, 4-0 :eyebrow:
Portland State(BSC), 7-4, 6-2

Seeds:
1. App State
2. Montana
3. UMass
4. JMU xsmileyclapx

so, ur belief on the gateway is: WKU wins out and wins conference since they beat YSU and UNI and Austin Peay to become 8-3 (6-1), SIU loses to YSU then beat UNI and Souther Utah to become 8-3 (4-3), YSU loses to WKU and beats SIU to become 8-3 (5-2)... what about ILSU? we play MSU and INSU then UNI... so most likely we beat MSU and INSU which put us to 8 wins and IF we lose to UNI we would be 8-3 (5-2)... so we beat SIU and WKU already, but WKU gets the auto which can happen and SIU gets picked over us? i don't get it... besides that, i would think we could get in over a 7-4 PSU team...

thoughts on reality?

[pantherclaw]

I agree, what the heck is the fetish witha 7-4 portland state team, 8-3 gets you in, i couldn't believe a 7-4 getting an at-large when there are so many good 8-3 teams. JMO

[PurpleandGold]

you're right, I can't add. i have ILSU going 2-1 on the rest of the season for 8-3, 5-2. replace PSU with ILSU.

as a sidenote, I don't know how the committee will feel about 4 A10s and 4 Gateways, but I don't see the OVC, SLC, MEAC or PL being worthy of an at-large, AND I think Poly will lose to Montana and NDSU on the road and wind up with only 6 DI wins. I stretched for CCU because I'm not sure they can win out. If they don't PSU or MSU might be able to sneak in from the BSC. I guess San Diego is statistically a possibility but they'd have to cancel their UC-Davis game.

[LeopardFan04]

As of right now:

Top 4 seeds:
App. St.
Montana
UMass
JMU

Other teams:
Youngstown St.
Cal Poly
Illinois St.
Furman
TN-Martin
Lehigh
Hampton
McNeese St.
S. Illinois
UNH
N. Iowa
Richmond

[birdsflyhigh]

LeopardFan04, your list is the closest to what I would have predicted.
Not sure about those top 4 seeds, and I don't see Cal-Poly winning 2 of their last 3 games.

In place of Cal-Poly, the bubble list would include (in no particular order) Coastal Carolina, WKU, MSU or even Maine.

[shakdaddy3]

just like i and others said in the gateway thread, too many crazy things can happen in the next few weeks... but ain't trying to predict it fun? :)

[CCU97]

Would anyone on here think if San Diego or Charleston Southern went undefeated that they should make the playoffs? At this point that may not be too hard....I know Chuck South only has one game left that they feel will be close....

[bluehenbillk]

Would anyone on here think if San Diego or Charleston Southern went undefeated that they should make the playoffs? At this point that may not be too hard....I know Chuck South only has one game left that they feel will be close....

Charleston Southern has zero chance of seeing the playoffs unless they buy a ticket.

[PurpleandGold]

Charleston Southern is in the same boat with San Diego. Great records against schedules that no team eyeing a playoff spot should consider. Actually, CSU's schedule is rated just a hair easier than SDU's, which I might dispute since at least they play someone, The Citadel, from a power conference.

[dbackjon]

Charleston Southern is in the same boat with San Diego. Great records against schedules that no team eyeing a playoff spot should consider. Actually, CSU's schedule is rated just a hair easier than SDU's, which I might dispute since at least they play someone, The Citadel, from a power conference.

And CCU is a good team as well .

[Walkon79]

At Large:

Portland State (The shocker at 7-4 on strength of schedule)


No way they get in. Got shut out by Montana State in Bozeman, and beat up by the Griz in Portland. Their bad for scheduleing too many 1A's, but they're not getting in. The Cats will not get in either, unless they win out and get the Auto-bid. When's the last time only one Big Sky team made the field? I can't remember and I've been following this for 20 years. I hope this is not the year, but will be determined on November 18th in Missoula.

[Live4Griz]

No way they get in. Got shut out by Montana State in Bozeman, and beat up by the Griz in Portland. Their bad for scheduleing too many 1A's, but they're not getting in. The Cats will not get in either, unless they win out and get the Auto-bid. When's the last time only one Big Sky team made the field? I can't remember and I've been following this for 20 years. I hope this is not the year, but will be determined on November 18th in Missoula.

I want to say 1998 was the last year only one team from the Big Sky got into the playoffs...not 100% sure.

GO GRIZ!!

[OL FU]

If Furman gets in we get sent somewhere and JMU would not surprise me

[GGASU]

No way they get in. Got shut out by Montana State in Bozeman, and beat up by the Griz in Portland. Their bad for scheduleing too many 1A's, but they're not getting in. The Cats will not get in either, unless they win out and get the Auto-bid. When's the last time only one Big Sky team made the field? I can't remember and I've been following this for 20 years. I hope this is not the year, but will be determined on November 18th in Missoula.

This could be a year in which only one team makes the playoffs from the Big Sky AND Southern Conference! Add a team from the Pioneer League and it is one messed up year.

[NCs Band of Distinction]

That would be quite amazing :D

[NCs Band of Distinction]

Well, we all know App is gonna take it home again anyway ;-)

[dbackjon]

This could be a year in which only one team makes the playoffs from the Big Sky AND Southern Conference! Add a team from the Pioneer League and it is one messed up year.

And only one from Patriot and Southland....

[Spooney-Cat]

The Southland is a crapshoot at this point. There is no definitive favorite. I thought we (TxState) were starting to roll with consistency, but a hiccup against Northwestern State this past weekend hurt big.

Anything could happen at this point. Of all the teams left, I would think that McNeese has the edge, but again, so unpredictable...

[Go Apps]

Tribe4S...No Chance

I see your 4 seeds and if MASS, ASU, Montana and whoever else finishes with no further losses ASU and Montana will be the top two seeds -Why MONEY ASU and Montana are the dream scenario for the committee - the top two in attendance will get the nod - UMASS needs to work on attendance - again all this is assuming all three win out.

[Go Apps]

OL FU

Hang Tight My Paladin Friend - Furman wins out they will get a first round game - no doubt! Great Draw and Good Weather - And You Need To Win Out - ASU Can't Go It Alone!

[JMU_MRD'03-'07]

What the heck, have to do a first post some time:

Auto: Montana, Appy St, UMass, UNI, Hampton, UT-Martin, Holy Cross, someone (eventually) from the Southland
Seeds: #1 Montana, #2 Appy St., #3 UMass, #4 Youngstown

Playoffs:
Southland survivor @ Montana
New Hampshire @ UT-Martin
E. Illinois @ Youngstown St.
Richmond @ Hampton
Holy Cross @ UMass
Furman @ Illinois St.
UNI @ Appy St.
Charleston So. @ JMU

I don't see Youngstown getting a seed, you need 9 or 10 wins this year I think. We'll see if there are four teams that fit that.

AND PLEASE SEND US CHUCK SOUTH!

They were here my freshman year and I'd love to see them back.

[th0m]

AND PLEASE SEND US CHUCK SOUTH!

They were here my freshman year and I'd love to see them back.

And beat them soundly, 45-7.

[shakdaddy3]

I don't see Youngstown getting a seed, you need 9 or 10 wins this year I think. We'll see if there are four teams that fit that.

why not? just wondering?

if they win out, i think they do for sure... if they don't, then i don't think they will either cuz that'd put them at 8-3 which means they may not be the conference champs either... :eyebrow:

[FlyYtown]

I don't see Youngstown getting a seed, you need 9 or 10 wins this year I think. We'll see if there are four teams that fit that.


And why is that?

1) We would've played at least 5 RANKED Teams, 6 if WKU beats UNI:

-Maine---WIN
-UC-Davis---WIN
-Northern Iowa---loss
-Illinois State---WIN
-Southern Illinois---WIN
-Western Kentucky---WIN
and add Penn St. to that list if you want although we lost.

Find a tougher schedule than that.... please!

2) NCAA Law: The top four teams in the 16-team bracket for the championship will be seeded. Team pairings will be determined by geographical proximity, with the exception that teams from the same conference may not be paired in the first round.

I wouldn't be surprised one bit of MONEY and ATTENDANCE will have something to do wtih it... YSU has the money and the facilities and the attendance base to get a seed...... just like Montana and Appy State do!

Hey I'm just trying to backup my case for YSU... We still have 2 VERY Tough games ahead, but if we win them and win the Gateway outright, we should get a seed and likely will.....

[BillLuc1982]

It would be cool to see YSU and JMU advance to the semifinals and play each other in Harrisonburg so I'll have a short drive to the game!

[FlyYtown]

It would be cool to see YSU and JMU advance to the semifinals and play each other in Harrisonburg so I'll have a short drive to the game!

Why not have it at Stambaugh???
Take a United flight into Pittsburgh and drive an hour to Youngstown... Spend the night, watch us get the win and return home Sunday!!!

LOL!!! GO GUINS!!!

[th0m]

Why not have it at Stambaugh???
Take a United flight into Pittsburgh and drive an hour to Youngstown... Spend the night, watch us get the win and return home Sunday!!!

LOL!!! GO GUINS!!!

See, a game like that would unravel in a completely different fashion in my mind :D

[STACCATS]

I also don't understand what the fetish is with a 7-4 Portland State squad? Montana State(if they lose to the Griz?) would also be 7-4(if they beat lowly NO. Colorado this weekend) and would own the head to head over Portland St. Plus would finish second in the Big Sky. No way Portland St. gets in, and probably no chance Montana State gets in at 7-4, but in my opinion, they are in at 7-4 before PSU>

[bandl]

And why is that?

1) We would've played at least 5 RANKED Teams, 6 if WKU beats UNI:

-Maine---WIN
-UC-Davis---WIN
-Northern Iowa---loss
-Illinois State---WIN
-Southern Illinois---WIN
-Western Kentucky---WIN
and add Penn St. to that list if you want although we lost.

Find a tougher schedule than that.... please!

2) NCAA Law: The top four teams in the 16-team bracket for the championship will be seeded. Team pairings will be determined by geographical proximity, with the exception that teams from the same conference may not be paired in the first round.

I wouldn't be surprised one bit of MONEY and ATTENDANCE will have something to do wtih it... YSU has the money and the facilities and the attendance base to get a seed...... just like Montana and Appy State do!

Hey I'm just trying to backup my case for YSU... We still have 2 VERY Tough games ahead, but if we win them and win the Gateway outright, we should get a seed and likely will.....

I think this might be a very good reason why Y'town might not get a seed....IF there are other factors involved besides money and size of the facility. I sure as hell wouldn't send a team to Murdertown, OH involuntarily without giving them at least 5 days to fulfill their waiting period requirement to purchase a handgun.

quoted from one of your YSU brethren on another thread.

"Not surprised Ytown is that high. I work on the northside (few blocks from YSU) where the crime is the highest. I'm in an office building where at one time many years ago it was probably a nice neighborhood. Now it's surrounded by run down homes (occasionally we watch one burn down), US Marshalls in our p-lot reguarly plotting their next move, drug busts and car chases nearby, & we also have bullet proof windows because of stray bullets in the past. What a view I have from my window

Never a dull day in Ytown"

[FlyYtown]

"Not surprised Ytown is that high. I work on the northside (few blocks from YSU) where the crime is the highest. I'm in an office building where at one time many years ago it was probably a nice neighborhood. Now it's surrounded by run down homes (occasionally we watch one burn down), US Marshalls in our p-lot reguarly plotting their next move, drug busts and car chases nearby, & we also have bullet proof windows because of stray bullets in the past. What a view I have from my window

Never a dull day in Ytown"

Well lemme start by saying this: Whoever posted that is FULL OF ****. I once lived on the north side and have family there, they live in the Historic District on 5th Avenue, and have never had any threats or concerns about moving. The crime and murders in the city are in the South and East side. The North Side's problem is a few arsons, not the murders on the opposite side of town..... Yes we are the 9th UNSAFEST City in America, and 3rd per capita; but for a city of our size, the crime is concentrated in a few neighborhoods in this town, not the whole city... I live in the West Side now as much of my family does; and in the past 5-10 years; I've never had a worry about anyone.

2. YSU and Downtown Youngstown are the SAFEST PLACES in the entire county, including all the suburbs...... This area has had 2 homicides in 5 years; one was the murder of a police officer, the other a drive by shooting..... YSU is as safe as you can get.

3. The crime rate now is nowhere near where it was in the 90s; when YSU was at its prime and had so many home playoff games.... Back then we had at one time 50-60 homicides in 1 year, we are about 25-28 right now.

4. Throw this CRIME BS out the window. We have 500,000 people in our Metro Area who have lived here for some time and feel safe going down to the games; this BS is just a pathetic way to ELIMINATE our chances of something we most certainly deserve if we finish 9-2.....

---im happy i got that outta me!

[bandl]

Well lemme start by saying this: Whoever posted that is FULL OF ****. I once lived on the north side and have family there, they live in the Historic District on 5th Avenue, and have never had any threats or concerns about moving. The crime and murders in the city are in the South and East side. The North Side's problem is a few arsons, not the murders on the opposite side of town..... Yes we are the 9th UNSAFEST City in America, and 3rd per capita; but for a city of our size, the crime is concentrated in a few neighborhoods in this town, not the whole city... I live in the West Side now as much of my family does; and in the past 5-10 years; I've never had a worry about anyone.

2. YSU and Downtown Youngstown are the SAFEST PLACES in the entire county, including all the suburbs...... This area has had 2 homicides in 5 years; one was the murder of a police officer, the other a drive by shooting..... YSU is as safe as you can get.

3. The crime rate now is nowhere near where it was in the 90s; when YSU was at its prime and had so many home playoff games.... Back then we had at one time 50-60 homicides in 1 year, we are about 25-28 right now.

4. Throw this CRIME BS out the window. We have 500,000 people in our Metro Area who have lived here for some time and feel safe going down to the games; this BS is just a pathetic way to ELIMINATE our chances of something we most certainly deserve if we finish 9-2.....

---im happy i got that outta me!

http://www.anygivensaturday.com/forum/showthread.php?t=15806

xcoffeex xcoffeex

[shakdaddy3]

I also don't understand what the fetish is with a 7-4 Portland State squad? Montana State(if they lose to the Griz?) would also be 7-4(if they beat lowly NO. Colorado this weekend) and would own the head to head over Portland St. Plus would finish second in the Big Sky. No way Portland St. gets in, and probably no chance Montana State gets in at 7-4, but in my opinion, they are in at 7-4 before PSU>

i think both would be trumped by a 7-4 SIU... reasons stated above :thumbsup:

[birdsflyhigh]

shakdaddy2, definitely agree with you that a 7-4 SIU team would trump either a PSU or MSU team with the same record. The last playoff spot may indeed come down to a team sporting a 7-4 finish. It'll be fun to see how these last few weeks play out. :nod:

[CopperCat]

Why is Portland State getting an at-large in so many of these predictions? Both UM and MSU have beat them. They have lost to I-A schools by rather large margins. Moreover, they still have to play NAU IN FLAGSTAFF!!! Who is to say the PSU will even make it past that game? My hope is that PSU takes the loss so that we can put this beast in the ground for good!:bang: :bang: :bang:

[CopperCat]

Portland State WILL NOT GET AN AT LARGE because NAU will take care of them this weekend. Not to mention they are currently 5-4.

NAU 42
PSU 35

[GSUhooligan]

I have an all hell breaks loose scenario....what happens if UMASS and JMU lose out, which isn't out of the question. Maine is a decent team that handled Towson pretty tough. UNH is better than their recent performances, and Hoftra played UNH tough. Delaware can still sneak up on people, Towson is a good team, and Nova is better than their record. Add to that Furman losing to a bad GSU team, Montana losing to Cal Poly and Montana State, App losing the battle for the Old Mountain Jug, the Gateway beating up on itself where WKU, Ill. St, UNI, and SIU all end up (5-2) in the conference, and the Patriot beats up on itself to where Lehigh, HC, Colgate, and Lafayette all finish 4-2 in the conference (while three of them have 5-6 overall records). Meanwhile, Charleston Southern, San Diego, and Monmouth win out. What would happen then? Who gets the seeds, who gets in and who gets left out?


P.S. I don't think the Southland should get an autobid this year.

[TypicalTribe]

I've got an interesting scenario as well, one in which only the Gateway and A-10 get multiple bids, with 10 other conferences taking one apiece.

It's a little bit of a stretch, but worth a stab:

Monmouth at UMass (1)
S. Illinois at UT-Martin

Lehigh at YSU (4)
Hampton at JMU

Big South winner at ASU (2)
UNH at Illinois St.

McNeese St. at Montana (3)
San Diego at Cal Poly

I'm assuming losses by Furman, Richmond, Towson, etc. combined with the committee's usual habit of selecting eligible teams with better records over teams with higher profiles but 3 or 4 losses.

[JohnStOnge]

The Southland is a crapshoot at this point. There is no definitive favorite. I thought we (TxState) were starting to roll with consistency, but a hiccup against Northwestern State this past weekend hurt big.

Anything could happen at this point. Of all the teams left, I would think that McNeese has the edge, but again, so unpredictable...

Yes. Even if McNeese gets by Southeastern...which has had the Cowboys' number...this week, I think Northwestern State is physically the best team in the conference and the Cowboys have to play them on the road just like Texas State did.

You're right. The Southland is a crapshoot. There is no dominant team.

[Cincy App]

shakdaddy2, definitely agree with you that a 7-4 SIU team would trump either a PSU or MSU team with the same record. The last playoff spot may indeed come down to a team sporting a 7-4 finish. It'll be fun to see how these last few weeks play out. :nod:

It will be fun to see how the last three weeks play out. I have followed the stretch run to the playoffs for several years now. This may be the first year that a 7-4 team makes the playoffs since 1992 (ASU). The "7 D-1" win rule gives the committee an out. Also, the Gateway and A-10 could end up as the only conferences with multiple 8-3 teams.

If a 7-4 team makes it and if PSU finishes 7-4, then I would expect PSU to get such a bid. They have played 3 Div I-A teams, beat one (a good New Mexico team), and are currently ranked 12th in the GPI. SIU is GPI #11 (would drop if they lost 2 more games) and Montana St is GPI #18 (would also drop if they finish 7-4). Another factor if 7-4 teams get considered is how many teams are already in the field from a particular conference. I guarantee you that a second Big Sky team would make the field ahead of a 4th Gateway team if both were 7-4. It's called the political factor.

Here are my playoff thoughts:

12 teams in great shape:
A-10 - UMass, JMU, UNH
Patriot - conference champ only (Lehigh?)
SoCon - ASU
MEAC - Hampton
Gateway - 3 teams likely (say YSU, Ill St, & SIU for now)
OVC - UT Martin
Big Sky - Montana
Southland - conference champ only (SH St?)

Next 4 on the chart:
13 - Furman - controls destiny but must win last 2
14 - Cal Poly - controls destiny but must beat either Montana or ND St (win both and would deserve a seed - only on bubble due to remaining schedule)
15 - Montana St - must win out - including beat the Griz
16 - A-10 fourth - Maine, Richmond or Towson - must win out although Towson would get consideration with just one more loss (their weak OOC will hurt even at 8-3)

Waiting in the Wings:
17 - Big South winner if undefeated in conference (CCU, GWU, CSU) - CCU clearly has best resume due to respectable OOC schedule and win over Furman
18 - Delaware St
19 - Gateway 4th (only if 4 finish at 8-3)
19 - top 7-4 team (PSU in my opinion IF they win out)
20 - San Diego (SOS, SOS, SOS - Yale win probably not enough)

[HiHiYikas]

I have an all hell breaks loose scenario....what happens if UMASS and JMU lose out, which isn't out of the question. Maine is a decent team that handled Towson pretty tough. UNH is better than their recent performances, and Hoftra played UNH tough. Delaware can still sneak up on people, Towson is a good team, and Nova is better than their record. Add to that Furman losing to a bad GSU team, Montana losing to Cal Poly and Montana State, App losing the battle for the Old Mountain Jug, the Gateway beating up on itself where WKU, Ill. St, UNI, and SIU all end up (5-2) in the conference, and the Patriot beats up on itself to where Lehigh, HC, Colgate, and Lafayette all finish 4-2 in the conference (while three of them have 5-6 overall records). Meanwhile, Charleston Southern, San Diego, and Monmouth win out. What would happen then? Who gets the seeds, who gets in and who gets left out?


P.S. I don't think the Southland should get an autobid this year.
I love your scenario (except WCU over ASU); I do understand why an ASU loss would be a part of your 'chaos' prediction, though. Late-season surprises seem always to happen. There are almost always teams in the playoffs who sneak in after a surprising late surge.

[HensRock]

I thought they were going to go to 8 seeds this year?

Anyway - here's my field (with records) which I feel is most realistic.

Autos:
App State (10-1)
UMass (10-1)
YSU (9-2)
Montana St. (8-3)
Hampton (10-1)
Tenn-Martin (10-1)
McNeese St. (7-4)
Lehigh (6-5)

At Large:
Cal Poly (8-3)
JMU (9-2)
UNH (8-3)
Montana (8-3)
Delaware State (9-2)
Furman (8-3)
ILL St. (9-2)
So. ILL (8-3)

Seeds:

#1 Appalachian State (10-1)
#2 Massachusetts (10-1)
#3 Youngstown State (9-2)
#4 Montana (8-3)
#5 Cal Poly (9-2 or 8-3)
#6 ILL State (9-2)
#7 JMU (9-2)
#8 Hampton (10-1)


Delaware St. @
#1 App St.

Furman @
#8 Hampton

Montana St. @
#5 Cal Poly

McNeese St. @
#4 Montana

UNH @
#3 YSU

Tenn-Martin @
#6 ILL St.

So. ILL
#7 JMU

Lehigh
#2 UMass


This scenario assumes MSU wins the Brawl of the Wild which is no given. If Montana wins the Brawl, then MSU is out and Montana is the #3 or #4 seed. Montana St to be replaced by.........





....... the winner of the Towson @ Richmond game.

Of course this would invalidate the above bracket as well.

We'll see how it plays out.

[shakdaddy3]

I thought they were going to go to 8 seeds this year?

Anyway - here's my field (with records) which I feel is most realistic.

This scenario assumes MSU wins the Brawl of the Wild which is no given. If Montana wins the Brawl, then MSU is out and Montana is the #3 or #4 seed. Montana St to be replaced by.........
....... the winner of the Towson @ Richmond game.

Of course this would invalidate the above bracket as well.

We'll see how it plays out.
u say that your scenario is the most realistic, but MSU beating Montana is not very realistic... maybe it is the "most realistic IF montana state wins versus montana playoff bracket" :smiley_wi

[Saluki_man]

shakdaddy2, definitely agree with you that a 7-4 SIU team would trump either a PSU or MSU team with the same record. The last playoff spot may indeed come down to a team sporting a 7-4 finish. It'll be fun to see how these last few weeks play out. :nod:


SIU will not make the playoffs if they finish 7-4. I don't belive they will have enough D-I wins, not unless Lock Haven is D-IAA. They need to beat either YSU on the road (tough task) or UNI at home (winnable) to get in at 8-3.

[GreenDay17]

SIU will not make the playoffs if they finish 7-4. I don't belive they will have enough D-I wins, not unless Lock Haven is D-IAA. They need to beat either YSU on the road (tough task) or UNI at home (winnable) to get in at 8-3.

Lock Haven is D-II. SIU would need to be 8-3 to get their 7 D-I wins (like you point out).

[HensRock]

u say that your scenario is the most realistic, but MSU beating Montana is not very realistic... maybe it is the "most realistic IF montana state wins versus montana playoff bracket" :smiley_wi

I said as much above. If Montana wins replace MSU with winner of Towson/Richmond game - I'll say Richmond if pressed, but it should be close.

I say most realistic because I do not include San Diego, like alot of others.

[ButlerGSU]

I'm taking App State all the way...

[HensRock]

I'm taking App State all the way...


You have a chance to do just that

In 3 weeks the Home of the I-AA Top 25 Football Pool will become the home of the I-AA Playoff Bracket Pool!


www.GoHens.Net/i-aapool

[Torero Tradition]

SAN DIEGO @ montana Round 1 Missoula, MT ESPN

[HensRock]

SAN DIEGO @ montana Round 1 Missoula, MT ESPN


San Diego @ San Diego watching round 1 on ESPN.

[LeopardFan04]

San Diego @ San Diego watching round 1 on ESPN.

xlolx

[Chucktown]

What if EIU wins out in the OVC?
They will have a record of 8-4-
with 4 losses coming to
1-A Illinois
1-A Hawaii
#8 Illinois State
#10 Tenn-Martin
7-1 conference, with only conference loss to Tenn-Martin..
Any thoughts???

[GreenDay17]

San Diego @ San Diego watching round 1 on ESPN.

LMAO!!! xlolx :bow: xlolx :bow: xlolx :bow: xlolx :bow: xlolx

[Jacks76]

Would NAU get consideration if they ran the table and finished 7-4, 6-2 in the Big Sky? I don't think the committee would pass on a Big Sky team with 6 wins in conference play.

Paul

[Bobcat in NC]

Depends on what Montana State and Montana do the last couple weeks, but highly unlikely. Assuming both the Bobcats and Griz each win their remaining games and The Brawl ends up being for the conference title, a NAU bid becomes more unlikely. MSU wins, they get the outright and UM gets an at-large. In this case, I don't see a third BSC team getting in due to so many qualified teams from other conferences (Gateway, SoCon, etc.). UM wins, they get the outright and MSU is likely sitting at home come the playoffs. In this case, I don't see 7-4 NAU getting an at-large over 7-4 MSU. Again, way too many good teams in 1AA for 7-4 teams to have much of a chance to make the playoffs (unless they win the conference).

This doesn't even take Portland State into account. Sorry, but things aren't looking too rosy for the Jacks.

[Bobcat in NC]

And, by outright, I mean autobid. Duh.

[smallcollegefbfan]

It will be fun to see how the last three weeks play out. I have followed the stretch run to the playoffs for several years now. This may be the first year that a 7-4 team makes the playoffs since 1992 (ASU). The "7 D-1" win rule gives the committee an out. Also, the Gateway and A-10 could end up as the only conferences with multiple 8-3 teams.

If a 7-4 team makes it and if PSU finishes 7-4, then I would expect PSU to get such a bid. They have played 3 Div I-A teams, beat one (a good New Mexico team), and are currently ranked 12th in the GPI. SIU is GPI #11 (would drop if they lost 2 more games) and Montana St is GPI #18 (would also drop if they finish 7-4). Another factor if 7-4 teams get considered is how many teams are already in the field from a particular conference. I guarantee you that a second Big Sky team would make the field ahead of a 4th Gateway team if both were 7-4. It's called the political factor.

Here are my playoff thoughts:

12 teams in great shape:
A-10 - UMass, JMU, UNH
Patriot - conference champ only (Lehigh?)
SoCon - ASU
MEAC - Hampton
Gateway - 3 teams likely (say YSU, Ill St, & SIU for now)
OVC - UT Martin
Big Sky - Montana
Southland - conference champ only (SH St?)

Next 4 on the chart:
13 - Furman - controls destiny but must win last 2
14 - Cal Poly - controls destiny but must beat either Montana or ND St (win both and would deserve a seed - only on bubble due to remaining schedule)
15 - Montana St - must win out - including beat the Griz
16 - A-10 fourth - Maine, Richmond or Towson - must win out although Towson would get consideration with just one more loss (their weak OOC will hurt even at 8-3)

Waiting in the Wings:
17 - Big South winner if undefeated in conference (CCU, GWU, CSU) - CCU clearly has best resume due to respectable OOC schedule and win over Furman
18 - Delaware St
19 - Gateway 4th (only if 4 finish at 8-3)
19 - top 7-4 team (PSU in my opinion IF they win out)
20 - San Diego (SOS, SOS, SOS - Yale win probably not enough)

Good post but I was thinking that Northern Iowa was 7-4 one time in the mid-late 90s and made it after getting the autobid. Mr. C can probably tell us who is right but I swore that UNI got an autobid at 7-4 one time.

Didn't Montana State get one a few years back for beating Montana in the final week to get an autobid as well?

[smallcollegefbfan]

Here is my playoff projections:

Atlantic-10- UMASS
Big Sky- Montana
Gateway- Youngstown State
MEAC- Hampton
OVC- UT-Martin
Patriot- Lehigh
Southern- Appalachian State
Southland- McNeese State

Best of the at-large possibilities:
Atlantic 10- James Madison, New Hampshire, Towson, Maine
Big Sky- Northern Arizona, Montana State (Must beat Montana and we all know that has happened before)
Big South- Coastal Carolina
Gateway- Illinois State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa (WKU could if they beat YSU)
Great West- Cal Poly
NEC- Monmouth
OVC- Tennessee State
Pioneer- San Diego
Southern- Furman
Southland- Sam Houston State (has a shot if they win out and McNeese loses one more)

Those are all the teams that I could think of with a shot. Am I missing anyone major?

[HensRock]

Those are all the teams that I could think of with a shot. Am I missing anyone major?

MEAC - Delaware State (9-2) with 8 D-I wins.

[th0m]

EIU also still has a chance to make it to the playoffs.

[Cincy App]

Good post but I was thinking that Northern Iowa was 7-4 one time in the mid-late 90s and made it after getting the autobid. Mr. C can probably tell us who is right but I swore that UNI got an autobid at 7-4 one time.

Didn't Montana State get one a few years back for beating Montana in the final week to get an autobid as well?

I believe that ASU was the last 7-4 team to get an at-large bid. Montana St did get the autobid from winning the Big Sky a few years ago with a sub- 8-3 record. However, your overall record only matters for at-large teams. For instance, SF Austin can win the Southland this year yet have a 5-6 record. If so, they will still make the playoff field.

[Mountaineer#96]

I was on the 2003 ASU team that went 7-4 with no bid..................it sucks to feel left out like that, but in the end we knew we should have won one more.

[Cincy App]

Matt D's playoff outlook is now available on The Sports Network - always great reading and analysis! According to Matt, the last 7-4 team to make the playoffs as an at-large team was Idaho in 1995.

[GGASU]

Matt D's playoff outlook is now available on The Sports Network - always great reading and analysis! According to Matt, the last 7-4 team to make the playoffs as an at-large team was Idaho in 1995.

Link

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/misc/extrapoint.htm

[dukes1987]

The talk about Towson is interesting, but they will not run the table and will probably take a beating by JMU, who has not had a truly competitive A-10 game this year.
Towson is definitely in a better shape than Richmond to make the play-offs.

How about this scenario:

Richmond runs the table, beating 'Nova, Towson and W&M, finishing 8-3 (5-3 conf). Towson beats W&M, loses to Richmond and beats JMU, and also finishes 8-3 (5-3 conf too). Now, Richmond will have the head to head record against Towson, as well as a Duke win. But Towson will have #4ish JMU win. Who goes?

I'd have to say Richmond, but who knows? Towson is still in pretty good shape, but will need to win 2 of their 3 games which is no easy task.

[New CCU Fan]

Question for you guys with more playoff selection and location history knowledge.

How do the pairings and locations actually get determined? I can't help but question why every prediction I've seen on here that has Coastal in the playoffs has them @ App? Particularly when, IF Furman does make it, and you've got Tenn-Martin for example, T-M @ App and CCU @ Furman would be logical too. Or for that matter Furman at CCU (that would be deja-vu). Seems like there's quite a few "regional" possibilities but everyone seems to be speculating on CCU @ App? Or is that just hyped up Appies dreaming of a 2005 repeat game?

Seriously, how do the actual pairings AND locations (who gets home) get determined? I know last year for example I heard that it was pretty much already a foregone conclusion that Furman would play @ CCU (but let's not get into why that didn't happen).

Detailed explanation would be appreciated. Thanks,

[th0m]

For those not seeded, the schools submit a bid to the committee. I seriously doubt that CCU would outbid Furman. JMU couldn't even outbid Lehigh (but then again, maybe we were just lowballing)

[Saint3333]

Question for you guys with more playoff selection and location history knowledge.

How do the pairings and locations actually get determined? I can't help but question why every prediction I've seen on here that has Coastal in the playoffs has them @ App? Particularly when, IF Furman does make it, and you've got Tenn-Martin for example, T-M @ App and CCU @ Furman would be logical too. Or for that matter Furman at CCU (that would be deja-vu). Seems like there's quite a few "regional" possibilities but everyone seems to be speculating on CCU @ App? Or is that just hyped up Appies dreaming of a 2005 repeat game?

Seriously, how do the actual pairings AND locations (who gets home) get determined? I know last year for example I heard that it was pretty much already a foregone conclusion that Furman would play @ CCU (but let's not get into why that didn't happen).

Detailed explanation would be appreciated. Thanks,

Don't you want to come up the mountain CCU? UT-Martin will be a top ten if they can win out and they will likely play a team like Furman (if they win out). They wouldn't give the #1 seed (if ASU does win out) that tough of a first round game would they?

[BDKJMU]

For those not seeded, the schools submit a bid to the committee. I seriously doubt that CCU would outbid Furman. JMU couldn't even outbid Lehigh (but then again, maybe we were just lowballing)

According to what was written in the H'burg Daily News Record in 04' since the A-10 got 4 teams in the selection committee didn't want to give more than 2 a home game. W&M got the seed. Even though both UNH and JMU had beaten UD and had better records (9-2 vs 8-3) and were ranked higher, UD got the home game because they have a 22,000 seat stadium. I don't think it was a case of JMU being outbid by Lehigh. If the A-10 gets 4 teams in, the committee wont give more than 2 home games. That likely means JMU & UMass will get a 1st round home game and (UR/Towson winner and UNH won't).

[th0m]

Ok, did not know that, but it makes sense.